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Autonomous Driving – the Changes to Come Autonomous Driving – The changes to come 6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany Aaron Dale, Senior Analyst, [email protected] © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Driving / Feb 2018 POLL QUESTION! How to you view the impact of autonomous driving technology on your business? Positive (embracing new opportunities) Neutral Negative (threat to Business) Access this poll on the event app! Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2 Autonomous Driving / Feb 2018 Autonomous driving technology impacting the market today Investment frequency in auto tech Investment funding in auto tech in 2017 increased to 170 deals, in 2017 increased to $4bn, up 45% over 2016 up 180% over 2016 Auto Tech investment activity related to: Autonomous driving software Connected vehicle & data Automotive cybersecurity V2V communication Driver safety tools Fleet telematics Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Source: CB Insights, JNovember 2017 3 Autonomous Driving / Feb 2018 Transportation & mobility attracts big money and names Honda part of Grab TomTom acquires BMW i Ventures Intel Capital to invest $750M funding round Autonomos increases fund size 5X $250M over two years Argo AI receives $1B Gett follows VW’s Peloton wins $5M DOE Zoox hits $1.55B from Ford $300M with $100M grant valuation Volvo Cars plans IPO Ola plans $600M LeEco secures $600M Nauto raises $9M with $532M funding funding round loan Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 4 Agenda Where are we now? Changing architecture Supply base impact Mobility impact Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 5 Autonomous vehicle sales growth accelerates post-2025 Maturity of tech, manufacturing, regulation and mobility service business models converge Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales Forecast 25 20 15 Millions 10 5 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 6 Autonomous Driving / Feb 2018 Mega-themes Drivers assist upgrading into L2-3 Development of L4-5 Autonomy automation Regulations shaping markets Balancing autonomous and ADAS Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 7 Level 2-3 systems to lead growth after 2020 25 20 Level 2-3 CAGR (2020-2023) Level 1 15 (2020-2023) 33.7% CAGR Millions 10 15.7% 5 L1 Adaptive cruise control, semi-automatic parking (steering only) 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 L2–3: Autopilot, automated driving systems, fully- automatic parking, remote parking L0 L1 L2-3 Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 8 Advanced Driver Assist Systems growing rapidly ADAS Unit Growth – CAGR 2017-2023 Park Assist OVERALL ADAS MARKET 17.3% excluding Park Assist 25.8% Autonomous Park Assist Blind Spot Detection Adaptive Cruise Control Surround View Driver Monitoring Collision Warning & Avoidance Lane Departure Warning Side & Rear Mirror Camera Autopilot 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 9 As automation and complexity increase, vehicle architectures must evolve Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 10 ADAS domain controllers: Distributed versus central processing Key considerations Assuming a need for centralized processing: • Premium – L3-L5, full-featured, most upgradeable • Full redundancy: ADAS ECU, cabling, software, AI Power Redundancy • Higher cost and power consumption Consumption • Key suppliers: NVIDIA • Economy – L0-L3, cost-aware, limited upgradability Efficient • Single ADAS ECU fail-safes to distributed processing in Cost Engineering sensors and downgrades automated driving functionality • Lower cost aimed at supporting NCAP requirements and lower levels of automated driving • Key suppliers: Delphi, ZF, Autoliv & other Tier 1s Source: IHS Markit Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 11 Autonomous Driving Service Alliances helping push beyond ADAS application silos Cooperation is necessary because of complexity of autonomous driving technology Auto/mobility Lyft: Ford, GM, Uber: Volvo, Softbank: Didi, Grab, Toyota, Didi, JLR Ola, 99, Nauto, NVIDIA partnerships Mercedes-Benz Intel-Mobileye: BMW, NVIDIA: Mercedes-Benz, Waymo: FCA, Honda, Industry Alliances FCA | Delphi, Audi, Toyota | ZF, Bosch Lyft, Intel Continental Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 12 New models, New strategies Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 13 Automated driving enabled by many sensor configurations Audi A8 Mercedes A-Class Tesla Model 3 Long-range radar Front camera Lidar Source: IHS Markit Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 14 Short-range radar Driver camera Surround camera Autonomous Driving Service Market competition will force changes to tech strategy Many sensor configurations and architectures will Audi A8 Tesla Model 3 Mercedes A-Class co-exist within a brand for the foreseeable future: • Complicating platform sharing efficiencies and supply chain management • Leading to unique demands from automakers to support different use-cases and end markets Source: IHS Markit Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 15 Autonomous Driving Service New competition not just focused on software Despite an overall shift in value from hardware to software the Lidar market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 80% making sensor hardware attractive. SoftBank, Samsung, Self-Driving Car Sensor Startup , Join Investment Quanergy Raises $90Million in LiDAR Startup Fortune CTECH GM Acquires LiDAR Startup Strobe to advance its own self-driving car plans “Canada, a leader in AI, is now taking aim at Autonomous vehicles. The nations main Silicon ANGLE contender is LeddarTech The Times More than $336m Raised by Israeli companies in September. Innoviz and Storedot Israel 21c Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 16 Presentation Name / Month 2017 Lidar fitment to accelerate post 2021 Typical cost 100000 • Solid Sate technology driving down the cost. 10000 1000 • Range and resolution of sensors still improving. 100 • Targeted for next Gen model fitment. 10 1 Mechanical Basic Flash High Resolution Solid-state Scanning LIDAR LIDAR Flash LIDAR scanning LIDAR Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 17 New capabilities are needed to enable autonomy Automakers & suppliers gaining expertise via acquisition, partnership and internal development Sensing Computing Cloud Connectivity User Driver Artificial Maps Experience Software Intelligence Service Business Model Auto Expertise Tech Expertise Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 18 The supplier response: anticipating the shift Acquisition • Delphi to acquire NuTonomy • Continetal’s acquisition of Hi-Res 3D flash LiDAR business from Advanced Scientific concepts Partnership’s and Testing • Autoliv partnership with Volvo Sensing • Software partnership Bosch- SAP, Software AG, IBM • Bosch, ZF, Autoliv – Nvidia Mapping software Investment Value Add • Delphi Investment in Innoviz • Continental investment in EasyMile Services Testing Integration • ZF system integration business Integrating • Bosch System integration Innovation • Bosch $1.1 billion new facility to produce semiconductors. Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 19 Testing and pilot schemes Volvo Drive Me LUTZ Pathfinder Autobahn testing Adaptation of infrastructure • Dedicated autonomous driving lanes Waymo / Uber • Road signals and signs Education of drivers • Addressing safety concerns. • How to interact with autonomous vehicles Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Regulation vital and malleable Regulatory activity is already influential, but it becomes one of the most important market forces for ADAS NCAP Traffic Law Standards and guidance Sharing economy ISO 26262 + ASIL Euro NCAP continues to move consultation period designed to New automated vehicle guidelines Open question everywhere today forward on new AEB features suggest changes to motor expected in US and Europe insurance rules and the highway Even China allowed ride-hailing Little-to-no activity from other code. Steady progress on cybersecurity services in legal grey zone countries and driver distraction guidance This is aimed at allowing Lv4-5 Regulation likely to be defined by autonomous vehicles to be on the the current market roads by 2020. Guidance will shape the future of automotive technology, regulatory decisions will affect how the sharing economy evolves Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. In Summary…. Continued investment Leading to increased competition and cooperation. Market pushing sensor advances, artificial intelligence, innovative interiors and platform development towards public deployment Growing ecosystem A period of transformation, cooperation vital. New frontier of integration. Testing, Regulation and mobility Key factors influencing the rate of introduction of autonomous driving technology. Testing a perfect partnership facilitator. Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved..
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