Thursday, August 10, 2000 ! Volume 7, Number 3 Page 1 of 9 Post-Bayh analysis The of Indiana 2000 Howey !"#$%&'(#))'*+',')#--)+'-./%"+0'1.0'23& By BRIAN A. HOWEY The Howey Political Report INDIANAPOLIS - With Al Gore’s decision on the Political vice presidential fate of sealed, we can now begin to get a focus on how the Indiana political atmosphere is shaping up for the fall. Report First, let’s start with some assumptions had there been a Gore/Bayh ticket. The biggest impact here would have been on turnout. Bayh’s inclusion on the ticket would have The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink hyper-energized the Democratic base. He would have been Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the an alkaline on Gore’s vivid weaknesses, perhaps neutralizing political process in Indiana. the vice president’s perceptions that resulted in a 26/74 per- cent favorable/unfavorable rating in Northern Indiana and an Brian A. Howey, publisher even worse (and astounding) 23/77 percent fav/unfav in Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer Southern Indiana, according to the June 19 HPR/TeleRe- Jack E. Howey, editor search Poll. The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 During Bayh’s four statewide runs (1986, 1988, 1992 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 and 1998) he proved to have long coattails in legislative Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 races, where he pulled in three to six seats each time, as well [email protected] as Statehouse races. In 1998, when Bayh defeated Paul www.howeypolitics.com Helmke for the Senate with 63 percent, House Democrats also picked up six seats, prompting Dan Parker of the House Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. caucus to observe, “He created the atmosphere for people to split tickets from the start.” Bayh’s coattails didn’t necessari- Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or ly extend to U.S. House races, where his overwhelming 62 fax. Call 317-254-1533. percent re-election in ‘92 didn’t save Jim Jontz in the 5th © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights CD. His ballot clout in 1998, however, might have helped reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or Baron Hill to a narrow 5,000 vote win in the 9th CD. reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- With that track record, we’ll examine how Bayh’s tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. absence from the ballot and what can best be described as a Continued on page 2

“"He embodies everything you could want Ticker Tape: Lilly stock plunges p. 2 in a vice presidential selection, intelligence, Congress Watch: Politics & Taxes p. 3 integrity and moral courage..." - Sen. Evan Perhaps We Wander: Bayh’s future p. 5 Bayh on U.S. Sen. Horse Race: Ogden blasts Bardon over mailings; p. 7 Beginning Our 7th Year of Covering the Golden Age of Hoosier Politics Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 2 of 9

LILLY STOCK PLUNGES: After a federal court ruling that would allow other drug companies to market gener- ic Prozac, Eli Lilly Company’s stock plummet- ed from $108.56 on Tuesday to $76.13 on Wednesday.

BAYH’S STATEMENT ON LIEBERMAN: U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh reacted to Al Gore’s selection of U.S. Sen. Joe Lierberman as his vice pres- idential nominee by saying, “Al Gore has shown tremen- dous leadership in this his- mer that hit its apex in late June when he toric selection. Sen. Joe Post-Bayh, from page 1 suspended the state’s gasoline tax and Lieberman is a wonderful Gore undertow could likely impact the appeared to be getting under McIntosh’s choice. He embodies every- 2000 election in Indiana. skin over parades and missed Congres- thing you could want in a sional votes. Not only did he get excellent vice presidential selection: Governor’s race statewide and national media exposure, it intelligence, integrity and knocked the Indianapolis Star’s FSSA moral courage. He is clearly Had Gore selected Bayh, the happi- expose off the radar. qualified to be president.” est man in Indiana would have been Gov. O’Bannon had a 44 to 40 percent Bayh continued, “I have O’Bannon. Democrats envisioned every- lead in the June 19 HPR/TeleResearch always considered Joe thing from yard signs to TV ads reuniting Poll. The Democrats then shopped a Lieberman a personal role the “Bayh-O’Bannon” glory days that Garin-Hart-Yang poll a month later show- model, and admire his com- have led to 12 years of dominance. Now, mitment to putting people ing O’Bannon with a gargantuan 23 per- O’Bannon will have to go it alone while before partisanship. He is cent lead. While most independent swimming against the Gore riptide. "I successful because of his observers doubted a lead of that size, the always operated on the assumption he willingness to build biparti- perception was that David McIntosh was would not be on the ballot,” O’Bannon san consensus. I personally struggling and even his campaign hinted witnessed the conviction of campaign manager Tom New said. “We're at an O’Bannon lead in the mid to upper his principles as we worked naturally disappointed; we had some teens. together on our education hope, but our planning was done on the After the Bayh decision was an- reform proposal, and on assumption he would not. That was the nounced, Indiana Republican Chairman building the centrist safest course of action." New said the sil- Mike McDaniel indicated that recent GOP Democratic movement in ver lining for the O'Bannon campaign is the Senate. I admire Joe tracking in the 2nd and 8th CDs showed that it "does free up the senator to help Lieberman personally and O’Bannon’s lead in the single digits. with our campaign." professionally. He is more "O'Bannon's numbers were tracking under That may be a small silver lining. than a colleague, he is a 50 percent," McDaniel said. In fact, we’ve After a troublesome winter (White River friend.” yet to see an independent poll showing fish kill, $200 million budget miscalcula- O’Bannon even close to that magical 50 IINDIANA DEMOS DISAP- tion) and spring (lack of traction in the percent. legislature), O’Bannon had a heady sum- Continued on page 3 New was hardly dashing the GOP’s Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 take. "We expect this to be a close race; a control of the Indiana House, now at 53- hotly contested one. It wouldn't be sur- 47 for the Democrats. Without that factor, prising if that number began to shrink in the Republicans still have a fighting their polling after the Republican conven- chance, though we see it as a longshot at tion and after he got his ads on. But it's this point. McIntosh has to have a still a big lead to overcome." Republican House in order to even POINTED: Many northeast- What might be fueling this largely attempt to get all of the stars aligned to ern Indiana Democrats are undocumented McIntosh comeback per- pass his ambitious tax plan. He will have disappointed over the ception? One was his performance in to make a concerted plea to elect not only apparent selection of Sen. detailing his property tax reform initiative, himself, but House Republicans. That will Joseph Lieberman of even though it received only one cycle of be a tall order now, but a virtual impossi- Connecticut as Vice media play. O’Bannon’s denunciation of bility had Bayh been on the ballot. President Al Gore's running the plan as “a fraud” on the following mate (Michael Dawson, Friday was barely covered. McIntosh also Fort Wayne News-Sentinel). Congress They say Lieberman is a may have benefitted from Doc Bowen’s The biggest winners in the Bayh wise choice, but they would emphatic endorsement that played on the veepstakes are probably Republicans like to have seen Indiana front page of the South Bend Tribune. Mike Pence and U.S. Rep. John Host- Sen. Evan Bayh on the tick- O’Bannon is now faced with drop- ettler. A Bayh presence could have neu- et. Washington consultant ping his gas tax suspension, although he is tralized the distaste for Al Gore in the Chris Sautter told HPR, hinting at a similar move on natural gas, Bloody 8th and prompted a ticket splitting "Lieberman is a solid and presumably later this fall. mode. Dr. Paul Perry is on his own, now. historic choice, but Bayh would have helped more This race is still O’Bannon’s to As for Pence, the Republicans were where it will count in the lose. Having Bayh on the ballot would shopping internal numbers at the Phila- have been a significant help and might end - in the Midwest and delphia convention showing Pence with a with women voters." Brian have innoculated him against any so- 20-point lead over Robert Rock. Bob Dole Stier, Allen County called Bush-Lugar tide. defeated Clinton in 1996 in the 2nd CD, Democratic chairman, said, If Gore gives a well-received but only by a 45 to 42 percent margin. "The choice sends a clear stemwinder next week and the national Bayh’s presence on the ticket might have message that the negative polls tighten up, O’Bannon will be in bet- given Rock a critical energy boost. His impact of character won't be ter shape heading into Labor Day. absence will make Rock’s climb that an issue in this race." much tougher. " Lugar-Johnson BIRCH WAITED, TOO: Back in 1968, young Sen. Birch Johnson’s fundraising is going to Bayh of Indiana waited ner- make this race vously for the Democrats to competitive, but pick him as the vice he’s still a long- presidential candidate. They shot. It was doubt- didn't (Steve Walsh, Gary ful if Bayh would Post-Tribune). East Chicago have been much Mayor Robert Pastrick was help. instrumental in organizing a group of local Democrats to make a week-long push to Legislature get Bayh drafted to be Had Bayh Hubert Humphrey's running been on the ballot, mate. The group also was we would have recruited into an abortive been forecasting a attempt to draft Ted virtual impossibil- Kennedy for president. ity for the GOP to Humphrey chose Ed Muskie as his running mate. Evan tie it up or regain continued on page 4 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 4 of 9 Tax cuts split Roemer leads the charge for targeted reductions By MARK SCHOEFF JR marriage tax bill. "Although Senator The Howey Political Report Voinovich and I belong to different politi- Bayh told the Indianapolis WASHINGTON-As Democrats cal parties, he and I see eye to eye on the Star that his wife, Susan, issue of fiscal responsibility," Hill wrote found out about the choice head to Los Angeles next week for their while listening to the radio convention, they are split on the issue of in a cover memo. "We both strongly feel as she jogged early Monday tax cuts. The fault line runs between New the best way to use the current budget sur- morning. "It was an honor Democrats in the Indiana congressional plus is to reduce the national debt. We to be a finalist," Bayh told delegation. both believe paying down the debt should the Star's Mary Beth The debate isn't over tax cuts versus be a higher priority than new tax or Schneider. "I was prepared spending increases; its hue is more green spending proposals." for it either way. If it hap- eyeshade. Those who don't favor reducing Sen. Evan Bayh (D) voted against pened, it would have been taxes say that the projected $2.2 trillion both the mar- an opportunity to articulate riage penalty ideas on a broader stage. non-Social Security surplus over the next and estate tax But basically I would have 10 years should be used to retire the been an absentee father." national debt. The contrast has emerged bills. He favors over the past several weeks as Congress an alternative Gary Mayor Scott King met has voted to reduce the marriage tax estate tax pro- Tuesday with Democratic penalty and phase out the estate tax. posal that he says would also allow for a Mayors Bart Peterson President Clinton has vetoed the marriage long-term health care tax credit, health of Indianapolis, Graham tax bill and threatened to veto the estate insurance tax deductibility for the self- Richard of Fort Wayne, employed, and tuition tax credits. Bayh tax measure. Stephen Leucke of South offered his own marriage tax alternative "There can't be an argument within Bend and Russell Lloyd of that would target relief to families earning Evansville (Steve Patterson, the Democratic Party about targeted tax less than $150,000. Gary Post-Tribune). The cuts and reducing the debt," said Rep. Tim In articulating his support of mar- Indianapolis meeting was to Roemer (D-3rd CD), cochairman of the riage penalty tax relief, Roemer uses the determine what their 60-member in example of a hypothetical middle-class common ills and goals are the House. "You can do both. Democrats and how best to meet them. family in his district. A teacher and car- should be on the side of valuing marriage, King said the common link penter making $60,000 together with three was "urban issues and try- helping families, and doing more to sim- children would pay up to $1,400 extra ing to develop an urban plify taxes." because of the existing quirk in the tax agenda to maximize our But there is an argument among code. Filing as singles, their tax bill would influence in the State- Democrats, and Roemer's Hoosier col- be lower. The $1,400 can "pay for an house." league and fellow New Democrat, Rep. entire year of tuition at IU South Bend," Baron Hill (D-9th CD), is on the other he said. "That seems to me to devalue The Grand Victoria casino at side. Hill voted against both the marriage Rising Sun asked the marriage and also devalue family." penalty bill, which would cost $292 bil- Indiana Gaming Commis- sion whether gifts to state lion over 10 years, and the so-called Demo Challengers Differ death-tax bill, which has a $104 billion legislators who are frequent Democratic challengers in Hoosier price tag over 10 years. Consistent with customers and receive House races also are coming down on Player's Points, which are the stand he has taken throughout his two- opposite sides of the tax cut chasm. similar to frequent flier year congressional tenure, Hill cited debt miles, should be reported Robert Rock Jr., who is running for the concerns to explain his votes. open seat in the 2nd CD, agrees with (Tim Starks, Evansville He sought cover from Sen. George Courier & Press). The casi- Hill's position. During a visit to Voinovich, an Ohio Republican. Hill no withdrew the request, Washington in late July, Rock met with but the question remained. faxed to Indiana reporters Voinovich's Hill, members of the Blue Dog Demo- statement outlining why he opposed the continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 crats, a group that promotes fiscal conser- depends on the voter." He has been up vatism, and the New Democrat Network, with a television ad for the last 10 days the political arm of the New Democrats. that focuses on tax cuts. It will run Hill also is affiliated with the Blue Dogs. through the end of the week on network Paying off the national debt is his channels in South Bend and on cable in top fiscal priority, Rock said. "If I factor LaPorte County. In the spot, Chocola says that in, then I can look at these tax cuts." that families pay up to 40 percent of their Sarah Nagy, executive On the estate tax, he said, "We ought to income in taxes. Tax reductions would director of the Indiana Lobby Registration Com- raise the unified credit, it's too low for our increase the incentive to save and invest. mission, said she knew of farmers and small businesses." He would In the 9th CD, Republican chal- no gambling organizations vote to eliminate the marriage penalty tax, lenger Mike Bailey is spoiling for a fight letting legislators borrow if the bill was narrowly defined and didn't with Hill over taxes. In the last two money to gamble, let alone undermine debt reduction. "I would look weeks, Bailey's campaign inserted not collecting debts from at how far they want to go." 230,000 16-page supplements into news- them. Jack Thar, executive In the 8th CD, Democratic chal- papers throughout the district. The Bailey director of the gaming com- lenger Paul Perry aligns with Roemer. He publication outlined his stances on 10 mission, said he would "be favors eliminating the estate tax and issues, three of which were tax cuts--mar- shocked if a casino ever reducing the marriage tax. "Every time we did." But State Rep. Russ riage penalty, estate and property taxes. Stillwell, D-Boonville, said, do something like that, we have to figure "Tax cuts. I love them," said Bailey. "It seems to me that if a leg- out whether it is fiscally responsible," he "I hear about (taxes) all the time." Hill is islator were indebted to a said. "There is room for targeted tax "a typical big-spending Democrat who riverboat, then it would be relief." doesn't trust people to keep their own in the public's interest to Rock said the Roemer-Hill dis- money. So we're making tax cuts a big know, because we address agreement on taxes shouldn't be blown out issue." Bailey said that Hill hurt himself legislative issues concern- of proportion. "Their philosophies are still with his recent vote against legislation ing the riverboat industry." similar, but they're not going to agree on that would reduce taxes on Social Security The Indiana Gaming everything. They represent different dis- Commission is expected to benefits. "Seniors are mad about that. decide next week whether tricts." He'll pay a price." the public has a right to Hill supported a Democratic alter- know if legislators gamble GOP Challengers Target Taxes native but opposed the final Social with money borrowed from Their GOP challengers are engag- Security tax bill because he said it threat- casinos. ing them in the tax issue. Chris Chocola, ened Medicare. "We should keep who is running against Roemer, said that Medicare out of election-year politics," EnviroPower of Lexington, his opponent is being disingenuous about Hill said in a statement. "I am more con- Ky., is asking for an Indiana cerned than ever that in this election year, permit to build a 500- tax cuts. He criticizes Roemer for voting megawatt power plant in against a $792 billion tax bill last year Congress and the President will abandon Pike County that would that included marriage penalty and death our commitment to the fiscal conservatism burn coal waste (Mark tax provisions. He accuses Roemer of that has eliminated our budget deficits and Wilson, Evansville Courier & favoring cuts in an election year. helped keep our economy strong." Press). The project could "I think it gives me an example of Roemer, who opposes the across- generate 300 construction Tim Roemer saying one thing and doing the-board marginal tax rate reductions jobs and between 100 and another," said Chocola. "Where's your advocated by GOP presidential nominee 200 jobs at the plant. The conviction? If you believe in it, you George W. Bush, is lobbying the White county is home to coal- burning operations owned should have voted for it the first time." House to compromise with Republicans by Indiana Power and Last year, Democrats argued that the this fall. He said that Democrats and Light Co. and Hoosier Republican tax bill was bloated. Roemer Republicans can reach agreement on the Energy and Nebraska-based supported a New Democrat proposal that marriage penalty, death tax, prescription Tenaska Inc. is interested in would have reduced taxes by about $350 drug coverage, and education spending. building a natural gas-pow- billion. "In a bipartisan way, it's going to happen ered generating station in Chocola said that tax cuts rank in at the end of the day." " the top four issues on peoples' minds. "It continued on page 6 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 6 of 9

Evan, they hardly knew ye tainly conjure images of Al Gore in the the county. Alycia Church of INDIANAPOLIS - Late Sunday Rose Garden on the day of the House the Pike County Chamber of afternoon, Al Gore, Warren Christopher, impeachment vote, calling Clinton one of Commerce said, "People are William Daley and Gore’s brother-in-law America’s “greatest presidents.” pretty skeptical (Enviro- were holed up in a Nashville hotel weigh- Bayh, too, expressed his consterna- Power) will get permits. ing four veep finalists: Evan Bayh, John tion at Clinton’s antics, but those remarks Even though it is supposed came almost inconspicuously and within to be environmentally Kerry, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. the confines of Indiana political coverage. friendly, it is still coal-fired.” Sources tell HPR that Indiana’s The Pike County plant Evan Bayh was in the mix until the very So it was Lieberman’s dramatic would be located on Indiana end. The apparent tipping point was an move in 1998, and not Bayh’s stance on 61 about three miles south event that occurred two years ago. That’s partial birth abortions (hardly a populist of Indiana 64. when Sen. Joe Lieberman took to the well issue, even with most of the pro-choice of the U.S. Senate during the summer of establishment) that ended his rendezvous CYBER-SQUATTERS AT 1998 and castigated President Clinton for with a heartbeat away. WORK: If Al Gore had cho- his conduct in the Monica Lewinsky scan- The 2000 veep drama certainly has sen Evan Bayh as a running poised Evan Bayh as the brightest rising mate, he wouldn't have dal. “Such behavior is not just inappropri- star in a post-Clinton/Gore era. At age 44, been able to use ate,” Lieberman intoned. “It is immoral Gorebayh2000.org as a web- and it is harmful, for it sends a message of it will be of little historic consequence site. Goshen dentist Brian what is acceptable behavior to the larger whether that era begins in four months or Blough has had that American family, particularly to our chil- eight years. He’s got a full generation in domain, and about 20 oth- dren.” which to maneuver. ers, locked up since last The speech was not only a dramatic If Gore loses, Bayh will have a November (Trevor Wend- departure as a Democrat of stature dared dilemma in 2004 - whether to run for zonka, Elkhart Truth). He to take on a reeling president of his own president or seek re-election. Indiana law paid $70 for the domain would allow him to run for both, though it name and had visions of party, but it received wide play on the net- selling it for much more if works and in the press. is unknown at what kind of political con- lightning struck. "I'm just a At the time, many of Lieberman’s sequence. Certainly Indiana Republicans political junkie," Blough colleagues in the Senate begged him not would be demanding that he pick one or said. "I knew Bayh was a to give the speech. Now, it has turned out the other. rising star, that he went to to be a candid lesson of the benefits of an In a four-year post-Clinton/Gore school with Al elected officeholder staying true to him- era, Bayh might be a presumed front-run- Gore as a kid, so I thought it self, his principles while doing something ner - if Joe Lieberman didn’t want the just made sense." that was not politically popular at the time presidency. Certainly there would be inter- BUYER ON MARRIAGE TAX: - something not lost on young Evan Bayh. est by Dick Gephardt, Bob Kerrey, Gray U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer react- It was that speech that probably Davis, , and, as a youthful ed to President Clinton’s secured Al Gore’s imprimatur on rival, John Edwards. veto of the marriage penalty Lieberman for the 2000 vice presidency. Bayh will remain a centrist in the measure by saying, “While I Had Lieberman not given that speech, that Senate. If George W. Bush wins, it will be am greatly disappointed in nod on Monday morning might very well people like Bayh and Lieberman to whom President Clinton’s decision have gone to Evan Bayh. Indiana’s junior he will be reaching out in the Senate to veto the measure, I am senator is no slouch when it comes to while he backhands his own fellow not surprised. The federal Texans - the Dick Armeys and Tom government should be pro- public morality. It’s just that a week ago it moting family values, not was George W. Bush and Dick Cheney DeLays who won’t be buying into all that discouraging it. This legisla- who took conspicuous aim at the Clinton compassionate conservative crap. " stain on the Gore legacy, one that will cer- Page 7 of 9 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Indiana 2000 Racing Form GOVERNOR, congressional races Governor: Republican: U.S. Rep. David McIntosh. Democrat: Gov. Frank O’Bannon. Libertarian: Andrew Horning. 1996 Results: O’Bannon 1,107,342, Goldsmith 997,505, Dillon 35,261. 2000 Forecast: We have been struck by a general lack of interest by tion would have provided the Indiana news media following David McIntosh’s detailed property tax plan. The story last- relief to 62,127 couples in ed one news cycle and prompted few columns or editorials. O’Bannon calling the plan “a Indiana’s 5th District who are fraud” the day after got little coverage. As for editorials, the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, paying more in taxes observed, “No one will mistake David McIntosh for a compassionate conservative. The because they are married.” Republican candidate for governor has had it in for social service programs since at least his LUGAR OUTLINES HEALTH freshman term in Congress. His newly AGENDA: U.S. Sen. Richard announced tax cut and spending plan for Lugar spent the first week of Indiana would reduce state services to the poor, August meeting with health elderly, abused and people with disabilities.” McIntosh criticized the O’Bannon administration care providers in Anderson, for its internal management after it missed a state deadline to submit a budget for child welfare Lafayette, and Northwest in Marion County. “The state imposed these deadlines, the state should follow their own dead- Indiana. “America has the lines,” McIntosh said. McIntosh was also critical of the O’Bannon administration for not fully best health care in the world, investigating abuse cases in the Department of Corrections. U.S. Sen. John McCain endorsed but a great deal needs to be McIntosh at a rally in downtown Indianapolis on Monday. McIntosh said that he and McCain done to make it accessible to had worked to eliminate the marriage penalty tax. “Last year alone over 600,000 Hoosiers had everyone from the young to to pay an extra $1,400 in taxes because of this unfair tax,” McIntosh said. McIntosh, Horning the old,” Lugar said. “We and O’Bannon were to appear at an Indianapolis Athletic Club Urban Forum event on have made some major Thursday morning - the first appearance by the three candidates at the same event. The improvements already this Libertarian was calling the event a “Horning Sandwich” since he was to appear between the year, and I believe a number Republican and Democrat. General Status: Leans O’Bannon. of other steps would make U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar. Democrat: David L. Johnson. U.S. Senate: Republican: critical advancements if they 1988 results: Lugar (R) 1,430,525, Wickes (D) 668,778. 1994 results: Lugar (R) 1,039,625, were passed in the near Jontz (D) 470,799, Bourland (L) 17,343, Barton (A) 15,801. 2000 Forecast: Johnson takes future.” Those include his aim at Lugar’s record on agriculture, visiting the farm of Don and Wilma Hahn in Winchester support for the HMO Patient in a series of “work days.” Johnson said, “Most Hoosiers feel connected with a farm in some Bill of Rights, a wellness way, many because their grandparents or parents owned a farm. It is important that we give program for Medicare recipi- family farmers a solid footing.” Thus far, Johnson has worked in a Terre Haute restaurant, a ents, and his support for South Bend Habitat for Humanity project, a Fort Wayne food bank and an Indianapolis child medical savings accounts. care center. He has future visits planned for Evansville, Lafayette and Dubois County. Johnson, however, doesn’t appear to be getting a lot of earned media traction on his work days. Lugar’s HORNING TO APPEAR WITH decision to forego the Republican National Convention demonstrated his grasp of a potential THE PATRIOT: Gubernatorial Johnson threat. Status: Safe Lugar. candidate Andrew Horning is Congressional District 2: Republican: Mike Pence. Democrat: Robert Rock Jr. hosting a fundraiser at the Independent: Bill Frazier. Geography: Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, Shelbyville, Columbus Hollywood Bar and and East Central Indiana. 1994 Results: McIntosh 93,592, Hogsett 78,241. 1996 Results: Filmworks in Indianapolis at McIntosh 122,288, Carmichael (D) 83,478, Zimmerman (L) 4,662. 1998 Results: McIntosh 6:30 p.m. on Friday. (R) 99,584, Boles (D) 62,426, Federle (L) 2,236. 2000 Forecast: Pence raised about $3,500 Appearing with Horning will from his Anderson fundraiser with U.S. Sen. John McCain. “The staff is going to shake you be Art Olivier, the Libertarian down on the way out,” McCain told the gathering (Ken de la Bastide, Anderson Herald- candidate for vice president. Bulletin). McCain added, “This is one of a handful of seats that will determine control of the After remarks by both candi- House. It is my understanding the outcome is still uncertain.” Pence got a lot of good TV and dates, the Mel Gibson film print exposure with the McCain visit. WTHR-TV covered Pence picking up McCain at “The Patriot” will be shown. Indianapolis International Airport. Status: Leans Pence. A $25 donation will be Congressional District 5: Republican: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer. Democrat: Greg accepted. To make a reserva- Goodnight. Libertarian: Scott Benson. Geography: Kokomo, Marion, Peru, Monticello, tion, contact the Horning

continued on page 8 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 8 of 9

Lowell, Northern Indiana. 1994 results: Buyer 108,575, Beatty 43,619, Alfred (L) 3,328. 1996 Results: Buyer 133,604, Clark (D) 67,125, Lehman (L) 5,255. 1998 Results: Buyer (R) 101,567, Steele 58,504 (D), Waters (L) 2,317. 2000 Forecast: In the wake of Bayh not making the Democratic ticket, we’re viewing the 5th CD as kind of a Democratic bellwether district. If Goodnight makes this race close come October, that will mean that the year is shaping up pretty good for the Democrats. Status: Likely Buyer. campaign at 317-251-2238, Congressional District 8: Republican: U.S. Rep. John Hostettler. Democrat: Dr. ext. 2. Paul Perry. Geography: Evansville, Blooming-ton, Vincennes and SW Indiana. 1994 results: Hostettler (R) 93,529, McCloskey (D) 84,857. 1996 Results: Hostettler (R) 109,582, Weinzapfel POLICE OFFICER CRITI- (D) 106,134, Hager (L) 3,799. 1998 Results: Hostettler (R) 92,227, Riecken (D) 81,381, Hager CIZES McINTOSH: Marion (L) 3,395. 2000 Forecast: Without Bayh on the ticket, Perry’s chances may have waned slightly. County police officer Mark Gore is extremely unpopular in Southwestern Indiana, where his support for the Kyoto Accords Courtney held a press con- and clean air standards don’t sit well with the UAW and United Mine Workers. Bayh would ference and accused U.S. have been a true aklaline in the 8th, reducing the Gore drag. We believe Hostettler is still in Rep. David McIntosh of vot- trouble here and Perry could defeat him even if a moderate Republican wave develops. His cam- ing against legislation that paign theme on health care issues resonates with a district that has an older population and has a would have provided bullet- workforce that has to deal with health issues such as black lung. One thing Hostettler has done proof vests for police offi- almost universally is to needlessly tick off the district news media with his inaccessibility. That cers. “McIntosh did not may come back to haunt him in a close election. Status: Tossup. show up to vote to allocate federal funds to help local police agencies buy bullet- INDIANA HOUSE races proof vests,” said Courtney, House District 19: Republican: Ron Johnson. Democrat: Rep. Bob Kuzman. an executive board member Geography: Crown Point, south Lake County. 1994 results: Conlon (R) 8,850, McCall (D) of the Indiana Fraternal 5,280. 1996 Results: Kuzman (D) 12,236, Sparks (R) 10,453. 1998 Results: Kuzman 9,130, Order of Police. “Missing Gasparovic (R) 6,917. 2000 Forecast: House caucus leaders have identified Kuzman as a target the vote for bulletproof and are not taking Johnson lightly. Status: Leans D. vests fits a pattern for House District 30: Republican: Karen Burkhardt. Democrat: State Rep. Ron McIntosh, who has neglect- Herrell. Geography: Kokomo, Howard County. 1994 Results: Padfield (R) 8,589, Howard ed the needs of Indiana law 7,363. 1996 Results: Padfield 10,775, Herrell 9,660. 1998 Results: Herrell 7,711, Burkhardt (R) enforcement while missing 7,520. 2000 Forecast: Herrell is one Democrat who would have been happy to see Bayh on the half the roll-call votes on national ticket. It is this kind of seat where Bayh’s coattails greatly helped when Democrats the House floor this year.” reclaimed it in 1998 after Jon Padfield took it during the 1994 GOP tsunami. Status: Tossup. House District 60: Republican: John Shean. Democrat: State Rep. Peggy Welch. NEXT HPR WEEKLY will be Geography: Bloomington, Bloomfield, Lawrence. Greene and Monroe Counties. 1994 results: published on Monday, Aug. Bales 11,825, Anderson 5,210. 1996 Results: Bales 15,743, Germann (L) 1,931. 1998 Results: 21, following the Democratic Welch 10,172, Ellington 8,987. 2000 Forecast: Welch could have benefitted from Evan Bayh on National Convention. the ticket, particularly if pro-choice advocates don’t fully get on board Paul Perry’s 8th CD cam- paign due to his stance on abortion.. Status: Tossup. House District 68: Republican: Jean Leising. Democrat: Rep. Bob Bischoff. " Geography: Lawrenceburg. 1994 results: Bischoff 9,427, Ketcham (R) 8,993. 1996 Results: Bischoff (D) 12,088, Fehrman (R) 8,968. 1998 Results: Bischoff 11,881, Kristoff (L) 1,742. 2000 Forecast: Bischoff is a House Democrat who could have used the help of Evan Bayh on the ticket. With U.S. Rep. Baron Hill not facing a serious challenge, voter turnout in the face of a Gore riptide could be depressed. Gore is extremely unpopular in the 9th CD and the outward GOP migration from Cincinnati is turning Bischoff’s district into a very competitive one. Bayh would have been in a position to stoke up the Democratic turnout. This election could very well be determined by GOTV. Status: Tossup. House District 94: Republican: Paul Ogden. Democrat: State Rep. Jeb Bardon. Geography: NW Indianapolis. 1994 Results: Morris (Marendt) 7,838, Reasoner 5,537. 1996 Results: Marendt 10,396, Hinman 9,586, Neal 422. 1998 Results: Bardon 8,411, Marendt 6,834. 2000 Forecast: Ogden is complaining about the four taxpayer-financed House mailings that Bardon has sent out over the past six weeks. Ogden believes that Bardon is doing that in order to prop up shaky name recognition as he seeks a second term. Status: Leans D. - By Brian A. Howey " Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 9 of 9

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