Thursday, August 10, 2000 ! Volume 7, Number 3 Page 1 of 9 Post-Bayh analysis The of Indiana 2000 Howey !"#$%&'(#))'*+',')#--)+'-./%"+0'1.0'23& By BRIAN A. HOWEY The Howey Political Report INDIANAPOLIS - With Al Gore’s decision on the Political vice presidential fate of Evan Bayh sealed, we can now begin to get a focus on how the Indiana political atmosphere is shaping up for the fall. Report First, let’s start with some assumptions had there been a Gore/Bayh ticket. The biggest impact here would have been on turnout. Bayh’s inclusion on the ticket would have The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink hyper-energized the Democratic base. He would have been Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the an alkaline on Gore’s vivid weaknesses, perhaps neutralizing political process in Indiana. the vice president’s perceptions that resulted in a 26/74 per- cent favorable/unfavorable rating in Northern Indiana and an Brian A. Howey, publisher even worse (and astounding) 23/77 percent fav/unfav in Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer Southern Indiana, according to the June 19 HPR/TeleRe- Jack E. Howey, editor search Poll. The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 During Bayh’s four statewide runs (1986, 1988, 1992 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 and 1998) he proved to have long coattails in legislative Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 races, where he pulled in three to six seats each time, as well [email protected] as Statehouse races. In 1998, when Bayh defeated Paul www.howeypolitics.com Helmke for the Senate with 63 percent, House Democrats also picked up six seats, prompting Dan Parker of the House Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. caucus to observe, “He created the atmosphere for people to split tickets from the start.” Bayh’s coattails didn’t necessari- Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or ly extend to U.S. House races, where his overwhelming 62 fax. Call 317-254-1533. percent re-election in ‘92 didn’t save Jim Jontz in the 5th © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights CD. His ballot clout in 1998, however, might have helped reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or Baron Hill to a narrow 5,000 vote win in the 9th CD. reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- With that track record, we’ll examine how Bayh’s tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. absence from the ballot and what can best be described as a Continued on page 2 “"He embodies everything you could want Ticker Tape: Lilly stock plunges p. 2 in a vice presidential selection, intelligence, Congress Watch: Politics & Taxes p. 3 integrity and moral courage..." - Sen. Evan Perhaps We Wander: Bayh’s future p. 5 Bayh on U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman Horse Race: Ogden blasts Bardon over mailings; p. 7 Beginning Our 7th Year of Covering the Golden Age of Hoosier Politics Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 Page 2 of 9 LILLY STOCK PLUNGES: After a federal court ruling that would allow other drug companies to market gener- ic Prozac, Eli Lilly Company’s stock plummet- ed from $108.56 on Tuesday to $76.13 on Wednesday. BAYH’S STATEMENT ON LIEBERMAN: U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh reacted to Al Gore’s selection of U.S. Sen. Joe Lierberman as his vice pres- idential nominee by saying, “Al Gore has shown tremen- dous leadership in this his- mer that hit its apex in late June when he toric selection. Sen. Joe Post-Bayh, from page 1 suspended the state’s gasoline tax and Lieberman is a wonderful Gore undertow could likely impact the appeared to be getting under McIntosh’s choice. He embodies every- 2000 election in Indiana. skin over parades and missed Congres- thing you could want in a sional votes. Not only did he get excellent vice presidential selection: Governor’s race statewide and national media exposure, it intelligence, integrity and knocked the Indianapolis Star’s FSSA moral courage. He is clearly Had Gore selected Bayh, the happi- expose off the radar. qualified to be president.” est man in Indiana would have been Gov. O’Bannon had a 44 to 40 percent Bayh continued, “I have O’Bannon. Democrats envisioned every- lead in the June 19 HPR/TeleResearch always considered Joe thing from yard signs to TV ads reuniting Poll. The Democrats then shopped a Lieberman a personal role the “Bayh-O’Bannon” glory days that Garin-Hart-Yang poll a month later show- model, and admire his com- have led to 12 years of dominance. Now, mitment to putting people ing O’Bannon with a gargantuan 23 per- O’Bannon will have to go it alone while before partisanship. He is cent lead. While most independent swimming against the Gore riptide. "I successful because of his observers doubted a lead of that size, the always operated on the assumption he willingness to build biparti- perception was that David McIntosh was would not be on the ballot,” O’Bannon san consensus. I personally struggling and even his campaign hinted witnessed the conviction of campaign manager Tom New said. “We're at an O’Bannon lead in the mid to upper his principles as we worked naturally disappointed; we had some teens. together on our education hope, but our planning was done on the After the Bayh decision was an- reform proposal, and on assumption he would not. That was the nounced, Indiana Republican Chairman building the centrist safest course of action." New said the sil- Mike McDaniel indicated that recent GOP Democratic movement in ver lining for the O'Bannon campaign is the Senate. I admire Joe tracking in the 2nd and 8th CDs showed that it "does free up the senator to help Lieberman personally and O’Bannon’s lead in the single digits. with our campaign." professionally. He is more "O'Bannon's numbers were tracking under That may be a small silver lining. than a colleague, he is a 50 percent," McDaniel said. In fact, we’ve After a troublesome winter (White River friend.” yet to see an independent poll showing fish kill, $200 million budget miscalcula- O’Bannon even close to that magical 50 IINDIANA DEMOS DISAP- tion) and spring (lack of traction in the percent. legislature), O’Bannon had a heady sum- Continued on page 3 New was hardly dashing the GOP’s Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Aug. 10, 2000 take. "We expect this to be a close race; a control of the Indiana House, now at 53- hotly contested one. It wouldn't be sur- 47 for the Democrats. Without that factor, prising if that number began to shrink in the Republicans still have a fighting their polling after the Republican conven- chance, though we see it as a longshot at tion and after he got his ads on. But it's this point. McIntosh has to have a still a big lead to overcome." Republican House in order to even POINTED: Many northeast- What might be fueling this largely attempt to get all of the stars aligned to ern Indiana Democrats are undocumented McIntosh comeback per- pass his ambitious tax plan. He will have disappointed over the ception? One was his performance in to make a concerted plea to elect not only apparent selection of Sen. detailing his property tax reform initiative, himself, but House Republicans. That will Joseph Lieberman of even though it received only one cycle of be a tall order now, but a virtual impossi- Connecticut as Vice media play. O’Bannon’s denunciation of bility had Bayh been on the ballot. President Al Gore's running the plan as “a fraud” on the following mate (Michael Dawson, Friday was barely covered. McIntosh also Fort Wayne News-Sentinel). Congress They say Lieberman is a may have benefitted from Doc Bowen’s The biggest winners in the Bayh wise choice, but they would emphatic endorsement that played on the veepstakes are probably Republicans like to have seen Indiana front page of the South Bend Tribune. Mike Pence and U.S. Rep. John Host- Sen. Evan Bayh on the tick- O’Bannon is now faced with drop- ettler. A Bayh presence could have neu- et. Washington consultant ping his gas tax suspension, although he is tralized the distaste for Al Gore in the Chris Sautter told HPR, hinting at a similar move on natural gas, Bloody 8th and prompted a ticket splitting "Lieberman is a solid and presumably later this fall. mode. Dr. Paul Perry is on his own, now. historic choice, but Bayh would have helped more This race is still O’Bannon’s to As for Pence, the Republicans were where it will count in the lose. Having Bayh on the ballot would shopping internal numbers at the Phila- have been a significant help and might end - in the Midwest and delphia convention showing Pence with a with women voters." Brian have innoculated him against any so- 20-point lead over Robert Rock. Bob Dole Stier, Allen County called Bush-Lugar tide. defeated Clinton in 1996 in the 2nd CD, Democratic chairman, said, If Gore gives a well-received but only by a 45 to 42 percent margin. "The choice sends a clear stemwinder next week and the national Bayh’s presence on the ticket might have message that the negative polls tighten up, O’Bannon will be in bet- given Rock a critical energy boost. His impact of character won't be ter shape heading into Labor Day.