PRESIDENTIAL OVERVIEW

YEAR # VOTES % VOTES # STATES

2000 BUSH 50,455,156 47.9 271 30 GORE 50,992,335 48.4 266 21 NADER 2,882,738 2.7 1 0 OTHER 1,066,398 1.0 0 0 TOTAL 105,396,627

1996 CLINTON 47,402,357 49.2 379 32 DOLE 39,198,755 40.7 159 19 PEROT 8,085,402 8.4 0 0 OTHER 1,591,358 1.7 0 0 TOTAL 96,277,872

1992 CLINTON 44,909,326 43.0% 370 33 BUSH 39,103,882 37.4% 168 18 PEROT 19,741,657 18.9% 0 0 OTHER 670,149 0.7% 0 0 TOTAL 104,425,014

1988 BUSH 48,886,097 53.4% 426 40 DUKAKIS 41,809,074 45.6% 111 11 OTHER 899,638 1.0% 1 0 TOTAL 91,594,809

1984 REAGAN 54,455,075 58.8% 525 49 MONDALE 37,577,185 40.6% 13 2 OTHER 620,582 0% 0 0 TOTAL 92,652,842

1980 REAGAN 43,904,153 50.7% 489 44 CARTER 35,483,883 41.0% 49 7 ANDERSON 5,720,060 6.6% 0 0 TOTAL 86,515,221

1976 FORD 39,147,793 48.0% 240 27 CARTER 40,830,763 50.1% 297 24 OTHER 1,577,333 1.9% 1 0 TOTAL 81,555,889

1972 NIXON 47,169,911 60.7% 520 49 McGOVERN 29,170,383 37.5% 17 2 OTHER 1,378,260 1.7% 1 0 TOTAL 77,718,554

1968 NIXON 31,785,480 43.4% 301 32 HUMPHREY 31,275,166 42.7% 191 14 WALLACE 9,906,473 13.5% 46 5 TOTAL 73,211,875

1964 GOLDWATER 27,178,188 38.5% 52 6 JOHNSON 43,129,566 61.1% 486 45 OTHER 336,838 0.5% 0 0 TOTAL 70,644,592

1960 NIXON 34,108,157 49.5% 219 26 KENNEDY 34,226,731 49.7% 303 22 OTHER 503,331 0.7% 15 2 TOTAL 68,838,219 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTAL TO WIN: 270

State Votes Montana 3 Alabama 9 Nebraska 5 Alaska 3 Nevada 5 Arizona 10 New Hampshire 4 Arkansas 6 New Jersey 15 California 55 New Mexico 5 Colorado 9 New York 31 Connecticut 7 North Carolina 15 Delaware 3 North Dakota 3 DC 3 Ohio 20 Florida 27 Oklahoma 7 Georgia 15 Oregon 7 Hawaii 4 Pennsylvania 21 Idaho 4 Rhode Island 4 Illinois 21 South Carolina 8 Indiana 11 South Dakota 3 Iowa 7 Tennessee 11 Kansas 6 Texas 34 Kentucky 8 Utah 5 Louisiana 9 Vermont 3 Maine 4 Virginia 13 Maryland 10 Washington 11 Massachusetts 12 West Virginia 5 Michigan 17 Wisconsin 10 Minnesota 10 Wyoming 3 Mississippi 6 Missouri 11 Total 538

ALABAMA

Overview Electoral College votes: 9 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,393,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: 2,411,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,666,272 941,173 56.5% 692,611 41.6 32,488^ 1.9% 1996 1,534,349 769,044 50.1% 662,165 43.2% 103,140## 6.7% 1992 1,688,060 804,283 47.6% 690,080 40.9% 193,697# 11.4% 1988 1,378,476 815,576 59.2% 549,506 39.9% 13,394 1% 1984 1,441,713 872,849 60.5% 551,899 38.3% 16,965 1.2% 1980 1,341,929 654,192 48.8% 636,730 47.4% 51,007* 3.8% 1976 1,182,850 504,070 42.6% 659,170 55.7% 19,610 1.7% 1972 1,006,111 728,701 72.4% 256,923 25.5% 20,487 2.1% 1968 1,049,922 146,923 14.0% 196,579 18.7% 706,420** 67.3% 1964 689,818 479,085 69.5% -- -- 210,733 30.5% 1960 570,225 237,981 41.7% 324,050 56.8% 8,194 1.5%

^ Nader 18,323 1%; ##Perot 92,149 6%; #Perot 183,109 10.8%; *Anderson 16,481; **Wallace 691,425

Outlook Alabama is Republican, simple as that. The last time the state voted Democratic was in 1976, when it went for Jimmy Carter, and only two of the nine members of its Congressional delegation are Democrats.

Not surprisingly, the presidential candidates have left the state largely alone. Neither Bush-Cheney nor Kerry-Edwards has run ads and Kerry has yet to visit the state [as of 10/1/04]

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04) Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,309 (ranks #18) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 19 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 59 22 Mobile Register 9/27-30 4.5 54 40 American Research Group 9/13-16 4 ALASKA

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 1 am EST Voting Age Population: 460,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 457,562; Registered Democrats: 71,073; Registered Republicans: 116,435; Registered Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 270,054 (source: National Journal July 08, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 285,560 167,398 58.6% 79,004 27.7% 39,158 ^ 13.7% 1996 241,620 122,746 50.8% 80,380 33.3% 38,494## 15.9% 1992 258,506 102,000 39.5% 78,294 30.3% 78,212# 30.2% 1988 200,116 119,251 59.6% 72,584 36.3% 8,281 4.1% 1984 207,605 138,377 66.7% 62,007 29.9% 7,221 3.4% 1980 158,445 86,112 54.3% 41,842 26.4% 30,491* 19.3% 1976 123,57l 71,555 57.9% 44,058 35.7% 7,961 6.4% 1977 95,219 55,349 58.1% 32,967 34.6% 6,903 7.3% 1968 83,035 37,600 45.3% 35,411 42.6% 10,024**12.1% 1964 67,259 22,930 34.1% 44,329 65.9% -- -- 1960 60,762 30,953 50.9% 29,809 49.1% -- --

^ Nader 28,747 10%; ##Perot 26,333 10.9%; #Perot 73,481 28.4%; *Anderson 11,155; **Wallace 10,024

Outlook Having voted Republican in the past nine elections, Alaska is unlikely to break its tradition this time around. From its Governor, to its Senators, to its sole House Representative, Republicans run the 49th state. Though neither candidate visited the state nor ran ads there, recent polls report that Bush is safely leading Kerry.

Of interest is this year’s Senate contest, which could be one of the most competitive in the nation. Democrats have not seen an Alaskan Senate seat since 1974, but former Governor Tony Knowles’ rising poll numbers have put this solid red seat into play. Knowles is challenging appointed Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski (appointed by her father, Governor Frank Murkowski), whose popularity is slowly sinking.

On Nov. 2, Alaskans will also be asked to vote on an initiative that would treat marijuana like alcohol, removing “civil and criminal penalties under state law for persons 21 years or older who grow, use, sell or give away marijuana or hemp products.” This initiative is the first state attempt to regulate marijuana like alcohol, and interest on both sides of the issue is expected to be high.

Ralph Nader, fielded by the Populist Party in Alaska, has about 5% in latest polls. Other third-party presidential candidates on Alaska's ballot are David Cobb of the Green Party, Michael Peroutka of the Alaskan Independence Party and Michael Badnarik of the Alaska Libertarian Party.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 291 (ranks #50) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 0 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 57 30 American Research Group 9/0-11 4 56 33 Dittman Research 6/23-30 4.3 ARIZONA

Overview Electoral College votes: 10 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,061,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,440,144; Registered Democrats: 856,075; Registered Republicans: 976,280; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 607,789 (source: Secretary of State as of September 7, 2004 primary)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,532,016 781,652 51.0% 685,341 44.7% 65,023^ 4.2% 1996 1,404,405 622,073 44.3% 653,288 46.5% 129,044## 9.1% 1992 1,486,975 572,086 38.5% 543,050 36.5% 371,839# 25.1% 1988 1,171,873 702,541 60.0% 454,029 39.7% 15,303 1.3% 1984 1,025,897 681,416 66.4% 333,854 32.5% 10,627 1.1% 1980 873,945 529,688 60.6% 246,843 28.2% 97,414* 11.2% 1976 742,719 418,642 56.4% 295,602 39.8% 28,475 3.8% 1972 622,926 402,812 64.7% 198,540 31.9% 21,574 3.4% 1968 486,936 266,721 54.8% 170,514 35.0% 49,701** 10.2% 1964 480,770 242,535 50.4% 237,753 49.5% 482 0.1% 1960 398,491 221,241 55.5% 176,781 44.4% 469 0.1%

^Nader 45,645 2.9%; ##Perot 112,072 8%; #Perot 353,741 23.8%; *Anderson 76,952; **Wallace 46,573

Outlook Although Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996, Arizona is largely Republican at the presidential level. The state has voted Republican for president in every year since 1948 when the state sided with Harry Truman. That said, a Democrat is governor and a more traditionally Democratic issue, the environment, is important to voters across the political spectrum. National Journal reports that “Clinton's staging of the announcement of a Utah land preserve at the Grand Canyon may have carried Arizona single-handedly.”

Hoping to capitalize on Clinton’s win, his environmental record, and the large influx of mostly Hispanic immigrants into the state, the Kerry campaign included Arizona on its original battleground list. The campaign sent several field staff to the state, went on-air on March 23 and spent more money on television there in early September. The Democratic effort was supplemented by help from a Democratic 527 call the New Democrat Network, which has targeted Arizona for part of its $6 million Spanish- language advertising campaign (the state is 25.3% Latino), and America Coming Together which is organizing Democratic GOTV in the state and hired new field staff for the final two months.

On the Republican side, the Bush-Cheney campaign is determined to hold onto the state. Bush has campaigned with popular home senator John McCain and advertised heavily. The Bush team can also point to good economic numbers. Fueled by technology companies, the state added 84,200 jobs since January 2001 (2,264,200 in January 2001 to 2,348,400 in August 2004). In addition, conservative voters may be energized by an initiative on the ballot, Proposition 200, which would require proof of citizenship when voting and would prevent undocumented immigrants from receiving public benefits.

The Bush-Cheney side is largely dismissive of the Kerry efforts in the state. While NDN and ACT remain active, the Kerry campaign pulled its advertising slated to begin October 5, effectively going off the air with one month to go. The Kerry folks insist the state is still in play and that they will win with their ground game. Despite that, the advertising dollars are certainly a good indication of its level of confidence.

In terms of new voters, voter rolls grew overall by 7.6%, a total of 186,744 voters. Democrats signed up 59,504 new voters for a 7.5% increase. Republicans registered 56,097, for a 6.1% increase. Nonaffiliated voters jumped by 70,518, or 13.5%.

CBS Cameo: the final presidential debate was held in the state at Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona. In advance of the debate, a group called Communities for Quality Education, ran an ad featuring CBS’ own Bob Scheiffer in which a young girl writes him a letter imploring him to ask President Bush why he “under funded” No Child Left Behind in the sate.

In 1996, Clinton carried Arizona by winning larger than expected majorities in Phoenix and Maricopa. In 2000, however, Gore lost those counties and also the smaller areas outside Tucson where Democrats had previously done well. For Kerry to prevail, which looks increasingly unlikely, he will have to follow Clinton’s lead: carry the big cities and make the environment a visible priority.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,325 (ranks #35) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 26 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 48 38 Arizona Republic 10/2-4 4 53 38 AZ State Univ. 9/23-26 4.1 ARKANSAS

Overview Electoral College votes: 6 Polls Close: 8:30pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,044,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 1,125,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 921,781 472,940 51.3% 422,768 45.9% 36,073 ^ 3.9% 1996 884,262 325,416 36.8% 475,171 53.7% 83,675## 9.5% 1992 950,653 337,324 35.5% 505,823 53.2% 107,506# 11.3% 1988 827,738 466,578 56.4% 349,247 42.2% 11,923 1.4% 1984 884,406 534,774 60.5% 338,646 38.3% 10,986 1.2% 1980 837,582 403,164 48.1% 398,041 47.5% 36,377* 84.4% 1976 767,535 267,903 34.9% 498,604 65.0% 1,028 0.1% 1972 651,320 448,541 68.9% 199,892 30.7% 2,887 0.4% 1968 619,969 190,759 30.8% 188,228 30.4% 240,982* 8.8% 1964 560,426 243,264 43.4% 314,197 56.1% 2,965 0.5% 1960 428,509 184,508 43.1% 215,049 50.2% 28,952 6.7%

^13,421 Nader 1.4%; ##Perot 69,884 7.9%; #Perot 99,132; **Anderson 22,468; *Wallace 240,982

Outlook A Democratic presidential candidate is unlikely to win Arkansas in these post-Clinton times. Northwest Arkansas in particular has now become a strong Republican base, overwhelming the state’s Democratic past. Despite its Republican leanings, Arkansas did support its own Governor, Bill Clinton, in 1992 with 53%, his best percentage in that year. In 1996, he won 54% of the vote, his 8th best percentage that year.

As of the 2000 elections, Arkansas turned Republican in a move that dovetailed with George W. Bush’s success in other Southern states. Bush won 51% of the vote after intense targeting, although that was his lowest percentage in the South except for Florida. In 1996 Clinton carried Arkansas 53.7% to 36.8, and in 1992 he won the state 53.2 to 35.5%.

Perhaps because of that, the Kerry campaign made an effort in the state early. According to the state director Rodney Shelton, the Kerry campaign had 40 staffers in the state at one point (38 of whom were paid by the DNC) and the campaign announced that Arkansas would be part of its post-Labor Day advertising buy. In reality, however, Kerry visited the state only twice back in May and, in late September, the campaign pulled advertising planned for October 5. President Bush, who has visited the state four times in 2004, quickly moved his resources to other states, suggesting that both campaigns agree the state will go Republican.

Arkansas prides itself on being a traditional values state; 58% of adults are married, higher than any other state except Idaho and Utah. The definition of marriage initiative on this year’s ballot is expected to bring additional Republicans to the polls. On the other side, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln faces a re-election fight against state Sen. Jim Holt. It is unclear how close the election will be but Lincoln is expected to win.

As of October 14, a new poll showed a much closer race than expected: 46.2% for Bush to 44.6% for Kerry. Neither campaign is putting resources back into the sate as of October 15, but that could change.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Presidential Television Advertising None

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,580 (ranks #16) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 46 44 Arkansas Democrat Gazette 10/10-11 4.5 52 43 Opinion Research (R) 10/4-6 4.5 48 45 American Research Group 9/15-17 4 CALIFORNIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 55 Polls Close: 11pm EST Voting Age Population: 26,064,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 15,168,263; Registered Democrats: 6,733,858; Registered Republicans: 5,341,974; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 3,092,431 (source: National Journal November 18, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 10,965,856 4,567,429 41.7% 5,861,203 53.4% 537,224^4.8% 1996 10,019,484 3,828,380 38.2% 5,119,835 51.1% 1,071,269## 10.7% 1992 11,131,721 3,630,574 32.6% 5,121,325 46.0% 2,379,822# 21.3 1988 9,887,065 5,054,917 51.1% 4,702,233 47.6% 129,915 1.3% 1984 9,505,423 5,467,009 57.5% 3,922,519 41.3% 115,895 1.2% 1980 8,587,063 4,524,858 52.7% 3,083,661 35.9% 978,544* 11.4% 1976 7,867,117 3,882,244 49.3% 3,742,284 47.6% 242,589 3.1% 1972 8,367,862 4,602,096 55.0% 3,475,847 41.5% 289,919 3.5% 1968 7,251,587 3,467,664 47.8% 3,244,318 44.7% 539,605** 7.5% 1964 7,057,586 2,879,108 40.8% 4,171,877 59.1% 6,601 0.1% 1960 6,506,578 3,259,722 50.1% 3,224,099 49.6% 22,757 0.3%

^Nader 418,707 3.8%; ##Perot 697,847 7%; #Perot 2,296,006 20.6; *Anderson 739,833; **Wallace 487,270

Outlook Although California has sent its share of Republicans to the White House, Senate, and Governorship in the past, the 1990s changed the political tide in favor of the Democratic Party. The Clinton years must have solidified the state’s Democratic fervor, as Al Gore was able to win the state’s 55 electoral votes without spending a penny in advertising in the state. In a failed effort to get Gore to spend some of his resources in the state, Bush spent a whopping $20 million on media advertising, only to loose California by 19 percentage points.

Of interest is California’s Senate race, where Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is running for her third term. Boxer’s campaign has been going strong since March 15th, raising money, campaigning on weekends, and touting a record on health care, education, and gas prices. She is strongly against the war in Iraq and criticizes Bush’s allocation of funds. Republicans have faced difficulty mounting a successful challenge to Boxer, especially given her well-funded campaign war chest. California Secretary of State Bill Jones, the Republican nominated to oppose Boxer, has not seen his chances of winning improve despite being accompanied through the state by President Bush and his campaign efforts with Senator John McCain.

Californians will also be voting on stem cell research and the three-strike revision on Nov. 2. Proposition 71 seeks to raise $3 billion for stem-cell research, which goes against Bush’s effort to suppress public funds for such stem-cell studies. Supporters of the initiative have raised more than $13 million and are sponsoring television advertising statewide. Efforts by opponents to defeat the measure have been less effective and the measure is widely expected to pass. Proposition 66 looks to change the current “Three Strikes” laws that force life imprisonment for anyone convicted of three felonies in the state. The proposition would change those strikes to include only violent and/or serious felonies and would grant re-sentencing hearings to some inmates. Because the original three strikes law passed in 1994 with 72% of the vote, the new proposition is expected to fail.

In recent polls, Bush currently trails Kerry by about 10 percentage points. Bush has not spent money in the state this time.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot in California.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 13 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 7,165 (ranks #2) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 123 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 10

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 40 49 The Field Poll 9/30-10/3 4.3 42 48 Survey And Policy Research 9/27-10/1 4 COLORADO

Overview Electoral College votes: 9 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,398,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,955,483; Registered Democrats: 911,298; Registered Republicans: 1,090,143; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 954,042 (source: Sept. 14 2004, Secretary of State)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,741,368 883,748 50.8% 738,227 42.4 119,393^ 6.8% 1996 1,510,704 691,848 45.8% 671,152 44.4% 147,704 ## 9.8% 1992 1,569,180 562,850 35.9% 629,681 40.1% 376,649 24.0% 1988 1,372,394 728,177 53.1% 621,453 45.3% 22,764 1.6% 1984 1,295,380 821,817 63.4% 454,975 35.1% 18,588 1.5% 1980 1,184,415 652,264 55.1% 367,973 31.1% 164,178* 13.8% 1976 1,081,554 584,367 54.0% 460,353 42.6% 36,834 3.4% 1972 953,884 597,189 62.6% 329,980 34.6% 26,715 2.8% 1968 811,199 409,345 50.5% 335,174 41.3% 66,680** 8.2% 1964 776,986 296,767 38.2% 476,024 61.3% 4,195 0.5% 1960 736,236 402,242 54.6% 330,629 44.9% 3,365 0.5%

^ Nader 91,434 5.2%; ##Perot 99,629 6.6%; #Perot 366,010 23.3%; *Anderson 130,633; **Wallace 60,813

Outlook In 1992, Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson did in 1964 and that was after an economic slump hit the state in the 1980s. Colorado rebounded in the 1990s: Denver added high-tech and telecommunications companies and the economy grew by over 6% every year. With that boom, however, came conservatives looking for lower taxes/less government and the state moved rightward. In 1995, Democratic Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched parties to become a Republican and, in 1996, Clinton lost the state to Senator Bob Dole. By 2002, the state had a Republican governor, two Republican senators and only two Democratic Representatives out of seven. In 2000, Gore did not even target the state.

Despite the daunting numbers, the Kerry campaign has targeted the state and, with only two weeks to go, polls show a close race. Kerry was born in CO at Fitzsimons Army Hospital and, starting in May, the Kerry campaign launched an ambitious $1 million advertising campaign in the state. The Bush-Cheney campaign, which had not considered the state a toss-up, quickly followed with its own ads.

Many Democrats hope voters are energized by Amendment 36, which would award Colorado’s Electoral College votes proportionately instead of the current winner-take-all method. The amendment would be effective immediately: If George Bush wins 60% of the popular vote in Colorado, he would win five electoral votes. If John Kerry wins 40% of the popular vote, he would take four. The Amendment is being backed by some of the state’s prominent Democrats, while the entire Republican Party is publicly opposed. Ads on the subject are also filling the airwaves. Democrats may also come to the polls in larger numbers because of the competitive Senate race between Republican Peter Coors (as in the beer) and Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar. The race, following Nighthorse Campbell’s unexpected retirement, is a toss-up.

Economically, the state has lost ground since Bush took office, down 68,800 jobs over four years (2,245,200 jobs in January 2001 to 2,176,400 in August 2004). Manufacturing jobs are not a major issue, but the state’s tech industry was hit hard by the dot.com bust. On the upside, the economy has added jobs in the past year, from a low of 2,145,600 in September 2003, and the unemployment rate is below the national average, 5.1% compared to the 5.4% (August), both of which may benefit President Bush. Unfortunately, that 5.1% unemployment rate is up from 2.6% in 2001.

Hoping to capitalize, the Kerry campaign put extra ad dollars into the state starting in late September and has stayed on the air through mid-October. For the week of October 7 through 13, Kerry upped his ad buy by $200K to $777,352, which is an aggressive buy suggesting a winnable state. Bush-Cheney followed suit, increasing its ad buy $100K to $706,502 for the same period. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pulled its ads supporting Democrat Dave Thomas who is challenging Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez in the 7th district. Instead, Dems are targeting the senate and presidential vote: Sen. Kerry decided to prep for his second debate in the state and the DNC and the New Democrat Network are adding their advertising dollars to Kerry’s.

For Kerry to win, look for stronger-than-expected returns from the Denver, Pueblo, Fort Range and Boulder areas.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 790 (ranks #44) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 41 Mason-Dixon 10/4-6 4 49 49 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/4-6 5

CONNECTICUT

Overview Electoral College votes: 7 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,648,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 1,995,684; Registered Democrats: 682,478; Registered Voters Republican: 462,338; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 850,868 (source: National Journal July 25, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,459,525 561,094 38.4% 816,015 55.9% 82,416^ 5.6% 1996 1,392,614 483,109 34.7% 735,740 52.8% 173,765## 12.4% 1992 1,616,332 578,313 35.8% 682,318 42.2% 355,700# 22.0% 1988 1,443,394 750,241 52.0% 676,584 46.9% 16,569 0.9% 1984 1,466,900 890,877 60.7% 569,597 38.8% 6,426 0.5% 1980 1,406,285 677,210 48.2% 541,732 38.5% 187,343* 13.3% 1976 1,381,526 719,261 52.1% 647,895 46.9% 14,370 1.0% 1972 1,384,277 810,763 58.6% 555,498 40.1% 18,016 1.3% 1968 1,256,232 556,721 44.3% 621,561 49.5% 77,950** 6.2% 1964 1,218,578 390,996 32.1% 826,269 67.8% 1,313 0.1% 1960 1,222,883 565,813 46.3% 657,055 53.7% 15 --

^ Nader 64,452 4.4%; ##Perot 139,523 10%; #Perot 348,771 21.6%; *Anderson 171,807; **Wallace 621,561

Outlook Over the years, Connecticut has flipped between the parties, moving towards Republicans in the 1970s and 1980s and then towards Democrats in the 1990s. Although Connecticut has the highest per-capita income, it now consistently votes Democratic for president. In 2000, Al Gore won 55.9% of the vote, running ahead in every county in the state. Why does this state vote Democratic? Socio-cultural issues seem to play a bigger role than a desire for tax cuts for wealthy Connecticut voters. Also, in 2000, Connecticut native Joe Lieberman’s appearance on the Democratic ticket led to increased support.

Downballot, Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd is expected to easily win re-election against challenger Jack Orchulli. In House races, the only potentially close race will be in the 2nd District, where incumbent Rep. Rob Simmons (R) will attempt to ward off a challenge from Jim Sullivan (D).

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 969 (ranks #42) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 8 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 44 50 Quinnipiac 9/26-28 3 39 54 American Research Group 9/12-14 4

DELAWARE

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 619,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 519,816; Registered Voters Democrat: 224,130; Registered Voters Republican: 175,326; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 120,360

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 327,622 137,288 41.9% 180,068 55.0% 10,266^ 3.1% 1996 271,084 99,062 36.5% 140,355 51.8% 31,667## 11.7% 1992 289,735 102,313 35.3% 126,054 43.5% 61,368# 21.1% 1988 249,891 139,639 55.9% 108,647 43.5% 1,605 0.6% 1984 254,572 152,190 59.8% 101,656 39.9% 726 0.3% 1980 235,900 111,252 47.2% 105,754 44.8% 18,894* 8.0% 1976 235,834 109,831 46.6% 122,596 52.0% 3,407 1.4% 1972 235,516 140,357 59.6% 92,283 39.2% 2,876 1.2% 1968 214,367 96,714 45.1% 89,194 41.6% 28,459** 13.3% 1964 201,320 78,078 38.8% 122,704 60.9% 538 0.3% 1960 196,683 96,373 49.0% 99,590 50.6% 720 0.4%

^ Nader 8,307 2.5%; ##Perot 28,719 10.6%; #Perot 59,213 20.4%; *Anderson 16,288; **Wallace 28,459

Outlook Delaware is expected to vote Democratic in the presidential elections this November. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Delaware was George Bush Sr. in 1988. Since then, Democrats have won by a fairly strong margin. There is some division within the state: the New Castle suburbs tend heavily towards the Democrats, whereas the two lower counties trend Republican. This year, however, that potential does not look likely to turn the state red. Neither campaign has advertised in the state, but a majority of it does see Philadelphia advertising where both campaigns are up.

Senior Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, whose term is up in 2008, is a major surrogate for Kerry. It has been mentioned that he may even be a possible Secretary of State under Kerry. Neither senator in Delaware is up for re-election this November. Incumbent Governor Ruth Ann Miller (D) faces candidate challenger Bill Lee (R).

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as a member of the Independent Party of Delaware.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none, but some advertising from other states reach DE markets Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 351 (ranks #48) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 5 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 38 45 West Chester Univ. 9/22-25 3.9 41 50 American Research Group 9/13-15 4

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 455,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total 332,358; Registered Democrats: 254,628; Registered Republicans: 24,850; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 52,880

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 201,894 18,073 9.0% 171,923 85.2% 11,898^ 5.9% 1996 185,726 17,339 9.3% 158,220 85.2% 10,167## 5.5% 1992 227,572 20,698 9.1% 192,619 85.0% 14,225# 6.3% 1988 192,877 27,590 14.3% 159,407 82.6% 5,880 4.1% 1984 211,288 29,009 13.7% 180,408 85.4% 1,871 0.9% 1980 175,237 23,545 13.4% 131,113 74.8% 20,579* 11.8% 1976 168,830 27,873 16.5% 137,818 81.6% 3,139 1.9% 1972 163,421 35,226 21.6% 127,627 78.1% 568 0.3% 1968 170,578 31,012 18.2% 139,566 81.8% ** -- 1964 198,597 28,801 14.5% 169,796 85.5% -- --

^ Nader 10,576 5.2%; ##Perot 3,611 1.9%; #Perot 9,681 4.3%; *Anderson 16,337; **Wallace 139,566

Outlook There is little to be said about the overwhelmingly Democratic District of Columbia other than that Kerry looks to win it by a tremendous margin. In 2000, Bush lost the District to Al Gore by a whopping 76 percentage points and according to latest polls, Bush’s chances in the District for this year’s election should be no better.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as a member of the Independent Party of DC.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 35 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 2 off days)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 47 (ranks #51) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 11 78 American Research Group 9/11-13 4 FLORIDA

Overview Electoral College votes: 27 Polls Close: 8:00pm EST Voting Age Population: 13,095,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 10,301,290 as of 10/22/04. Registered Democrats 4,261,249; Registered Republicans: 3,892,492; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 2,147,549 (per 10/11/04)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 5,936,110 2,912,790 48.8% 2,912,253 48.8% 138,067^ 2.3% 1996 5,303,794 2,244,536 42.3% 2,546,870 48.0% 512,388## 9.7% 1992 5,314,392 2,173,310 40.1% 2,072,698 39.0% 1,068,384# 20.1% 1988 4,302,313 2,613,885 60.9% 1,656,701 38.5% 26,727 0.6% 1984 4,180,051 2,730,350 65.3% 1,448,816 34.7% 885 0.0% 1980 3,686,930 2,046,951 55.5% 1,419,475 38.5% 220,504* 6.0% 1976 3,150,631 1,469,531 46.6% 1,636,000 51.9% 45,100 1.5% 1972 2,583,283 1,857,759 71.9% 718,117 27.8% 7,407 0.3% 1968 2,187,805 886,804 40.5% 676,794 30.9% 624,207** 28.6% 1964 1,854,481 905,941 48.9% 948,540 51.1% -- -- 1960 1,544,176 795,476 51.5% 748,700 48.5% -- --

^ Nader 97,488 1.6%; ##Perot 483,870 9.1%; #Perot 1,053,067 19.8%; *Anderson 189,692; **Wallace 624,207

Outlook The importance of Florida in this year’s presidential match-up is hard to overstate. The left-over political drama from 2000, the difficulty of campaigning during a bad hurricane season, the competitive nature of the Senate race, and the massive growth in population and voter registration in the state are all heightened by the fact that, with 27 Electoral College votes, Florida is by far the largest prize of any of the swing states.

But if Florida looks like ground-zero this time around, it has not always been. Although Clinton won the state in 1996, it went Republican for George H.W. Bush in 1988 and 1992 and for Reagan in 1980 and 1984. As the state has grown (from only seven Electoral College votes in 1964), it has polarized along lines that almost mirror the country. Millions of Latin American immigrants, retirees from the Northeast and Jewish voters have turned Broward and Palm Beach counties into +65% Democratic counties. In Escambia and Okaloosa counties, the populations in growing suburbs and around large military installations now vote +65% for Republicans. In terms of base, Southeast Florida is key for Kerry, Northeast and Panhandle Florida for Bush. The main swing vote is along the so-called I-4 corridor in central Florida from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach.

Because Florida is so important, both campaigns are aggressively targeting it. President Bush has visited the state 12 times in 2004 alone [update number in late Oct.], with more visits only to Pennsylvania. In 1992, Bush père was criticized for not acting rapidly enough to help victims of Hurricane Andrew and George W. Bush has tried to avoid that mistake, already funneling more than $12 million in federal emergency aid to the state. Despite Bush’s efforts, the hurricanes did hurt his effort at least tangentially: damage from and coverage of Hurricane Charley pre-empted his convention acceptance speech in some Florida media markets.

For its part, the Kerry campaign has been active in the state since he clinched the nomination. Kerry has been on-air consistently since late March and has dispatched a bevy of high-level surrogates including his brother Cameron and popular Senators Bob Graham and Joe Lieberman to woo voters. Graham has also appeared in television commercials for the Kerry campaign that ran in the Miami area. Kerry’s efforts have been supplemented by an enormous advertising and get out the vote effort by Democratic 527s like the New Democrat Network and America Coming Together. ACT alone has 300 paid workers in the state as of October 11. Unfortunately for Kerry, the hurricane season kept him largely out of Florida in August and September, losing crucial weeks of campaigning as Bush visited in his role as Comforter in Chief.

One example of the focus on Florida can be seen in the sheer amount of television advertising. According to AP reporting, from March to early October, Bush and Kerry have each spent more than $35 million on television ads. Of that, $13.5 million was spent on airing ads in the I-4 corridor alone. From September 30 through October 13, the Bush and Kerry campaigns spent about one-quarter of their entire advertising budgets in the state: Kerry running 7,812 ads for $8.26 million and Bush running 8,312 spots worth $9.3 million. Tampa has been the top target: from March 3 through September 25, the campaigns aired nearly the same number of ads (4,783 for Bush and 4,711 for Kerry) and both sides spent an about estimated $5 million there. In the category of giving back, Floridians are very generous with donations to federal candidates, giving $106 million to various politicians across the country.

Down ballot, a competitive Senate race and an initiative about abortion may bring extra voters to the polls. In the Senate, former Bush administration official Mel Martinez will face former Commissioner of Education Betty Castor (D) in a very close race for the seat that belongs to retiring Democrat Bob Graham. Democrats are desperate to hold the seat while Republicans see it as ripe for pick up, energizing both sides. The abortion initiative, if passed, would change Florida’s state constitution to require minors to seek parental consent for abortions.

Economically, Florida is a strange state and the numbers do not provide extra ammunition for either side. The state has gained 303,800 jobs since January 2001, (7,152,400 in January 2001 to 7,456,200 in August 2004) and its unemployment rate of 4.5% is below the national average of 5.4%. On the downside, much of the economic growth is unevenly distributed, with millions of people (many immigrants), largely left out of the economic boom.

In 2000, Gore won among African-American voters 93% to 7%, but lost among Latinos (50% to 48%) and among voters over 65 (52% to 46%). Women and Jewish voters were kind to Clinton-Gore and to Gore-Lieberman, but may not turn out in such large numbers for Kerry. For Kerry to win this time, he needs to keep the 2000 margins, reach out more effectively to Latinos and win some of the Arab-Americans (an estimated 100,000 voters) that Gore lost but who are disillusioned with Bush.

For Bush, he must retain his strength among seniors (who, despite predictions, were not turned off by his talk of individual retirement accounts) and increase turnout among his base. In 2000, Cuban voters broke overwhelmingly for Bush, a pattern that many of this year’s polls indicate will not be repeated (NDN has spent about $300,000 on ads targeting the Cuban-American community). Bush may be helped by his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, whose popularity has grown. If Bush can make inroads among women, maintain his standing among Latinos in general and energize voters who stayed home in 2000, he may prevail.

Many Democrats openly blame Ralph Nader for costing Al Gore the election in 2000 and, indeed, Nader received 97,488 votes in Florida, far more than the eventual 537 vote margin. But, 40,579 votes were also cast for other candidates (Libertarian, etc.) and Nader uses this figure to vigorously defend himself. The Nader-Camejo ticket is actively organizing in the state and, after much legal scrambling, the Nader-Camejo line will appear on the 2004 ballot. The only thing that is clear about Nader’s impact this year is that it is uncertain.

Beyond Nader, there is another X factor in Florida. As in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both parties have made an effort to register new voters. In Florida, there were approximately 1 million new voters on the rolls, 300,000 of whom live in the swing area along the I-4 corridor. The overall number includes 270,000 new Republicans and 263,000 new registered Democrats. Both parties hope these new voters will turnout to vote for the first time, but their participation is in no way guaranteed.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 11 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 22 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: $35 million (AP 10/15) Kerry-Edwards: $35 million (AP 10/15) **Will almost certainly be the #1 state in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,063 (ranks #20) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 43 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 14

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 49 44 Strategic Vision (R) 10/4-6 3 48 44 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 4 51 44 Quinnipiac 10/1-5 3 45 47 American Research Group 10/2-5 4 47 49 Hamilton Beattie (D) 10/1-4 3.5 GEORGIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 15 Polls Close: 7pm EST Voting Age Population: 6,388,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 4,400,273 (According to Press Secretary Ava Turner). Voters do not register by party

Past Presidential Election Results

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,596,645 1,419,720 54.7% 1,116,230 43.0% 60,695^ 2.3% 1996 2,299,071 1,080,843 47.0% 1,053,849 46.0% 164,379## 7.1% 1992 2,321,125 995,252 43.0% 1,008,966 43.5% 316,907# 13.7% 1988 1,809,672 1,081,331 59.8% 714,792 39.5% 13,549 0.7% 1984 1,776,120 1,068,722 60.2% 706,628 39.8% 770 0.0% 1980 1,596,695 654,168 41.0% 890,733 55.8% 51,794* 3.2% 1976 1,467,458 483,743 33.0% 979,409 66.7% 4,306 0.3% 1972 1,174,772 881,496 75.0% 289,529 24.6% 3,747 0.4% 1968 1,250,266 380,111 30.4% 334,440 26.7% 535,715** 42.9% 1964 1,139,335 616,584 54.1% 522,556 45.9% 195 -- 1960 733,349 274,472 37.4% 458,638 62.5% 239 0.1%

^Nader 13,273 0.5%; ##Perot 146,337 6.4%; #Perot 309,657 13.3%; *Anderson 36,055; **Wallace 535,550

Outlook Long gone is the Georgia of 1960 Presidential Election, which at the time had the second- highest Democratic percentage of any state. Long gone too is the Senator Zell Miller of old, the Democrat who helped Bill Clinton win the state’s primary and who later delivered the Democratic National Convention’s keynote address on behalf of Clinton in 1992.

Up until 2002, Democrats dominated in statewide offices, with residents voting Republican only in the 1972, 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections. Clinton’s loss of the state in 1996 was a sign of changes that were about to take place. In 2000, George W. Bush solidly won Georgia, 55 to 43%. Zell Miller’s metamorphosis from a centrist Democrat to a thundering supporter of all things Republican (he delivered the keynote address at this year’s Republican Convention in New York City) is emblematic of the changing political tide in the state. In 2002, Georgia’s Democrats lost their majority in the State Senate when four senators switched parties and gave Republicans control for the first time since Reconstruction. Fuelling Georgia’s transformation into a Republican stronghold is Ralph Reed, the Bush-Cheney campaign Southeast Regional Chair and former head of the Christian Coalition. Reed was a major force in creating voter registration drives in Republican counties and helped line up strong Republican candidates for governor and senator. As a result, in 2002, Democrat Max Cleland lost his senate seat to Republican Congressman Saxby Chambliss and Governor Roy Barnes lost to Democrat-turned-Republican former state Senator Sonny Perdue.

Miller’s support for President Bush carries few political repercussions as the Senator is retiring this year. Vying for his senate seat are Republican Johnny Isakson and Democrat Denise Majette. Isakson seems to be well ahead of his Democratic opponent both in campaign finances and in poll numbers, though the width of the margin depends on which party is conducting the poll.

Georgians will also be voting on an amendment to the state Constitution to ban same-sex marriage. As gay marriage is already illegal in the state, placing the referendum on the ballot might ensure a mobilization of evangelical and conservative voters wishing to make a statement.

Most recent polls show President Bush solidly ahead of Democratic Sen. John Kerry.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,980 (ranks #27) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 25 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 58 34 Strategic Vision (R) 9/25-27 3 53 42 American Research Group 9/11-13 4 HAWAII

Overview Electoral College votes: 4 Polls Close: 11pm EST Voting Age Population: 960,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered voters: 402,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 367,951 137,845 37.5% 205,286 55.8% 24,820^ 6.7% 1996 360,120 113,943 31.6% 205,012 57.0% 41,165## 11.4% 1992 372,842 136,822 37.0% 179,310 48.1% 56,710# 15.2% 1988 354,461 158,625 44.8% 192,364 54.3% 3,472 0.9% 1984 335,846 185,050 55.1% 147,154 43.8% 3,642 1.1% 1980 303,287 130,112 42.9% 135,879 44.8% 5,767* 1.9% 1976 291,301 140,003 48.1% 147,375 50.6% 3,923 1.3% 1972 270,274 168,865 62.5% 101,409 37.5% -- -- 1968 236,218 91,425 38.7% 141,324 59.8% 3,469** 1.5% 1964 207,271 44,022 21.2% 163,249 78.8% -- -- 1960 184,705 92,295 50.0% 92,410 50.0% -- --

^ Nader 21,623 5.9%; ##Perot 27,358 7.6%; #Perot 53,003 14.2%; *Anderson 32,021; **Wallace 3,469

Outlook For the past 40 years Hawaii has trended Democratic. During that time, in eleven presidential elections, the island has voted for a Republican candidate only twice, in 1984 and 1972. In 1996, Bill Clinton won 57% of the vote compared to Bob Dole’s 32% and, in 2000, Al Gore won similarly by 56% as compared to George W. Bush’s 37%. The last Republican to win Hawaii was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

While both the island’s senators are Democratic, Hawaii did recently elect a Republican governor, Linda Lingle. Few observers of national polls, however, expect Hawaii to vote for George W. Bush.

Being a safe state for Kerry, neither candidate has advertised in the state.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,216 (ranks #19) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 0 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 41 51 *American Research Group 9/7-11 4 41 48 SMS Research 7/29-8/3 3.7 IDAHO

Overview Electoral College votes: 4 Polls Close: 11:00 pm EST Voting Age Population: 994,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 569,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party. *Election day registration available.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 501,621 336,937 67.2% 138,637 27.6% 26,047^ 5.2% 1996 491,719 256,595 52.2% 165,443 33.6% 69,681## 14.2% 1992 482,142 202,645 42.0% 137,013 28.4% 142,484# 30.0% 1988 408,968 253,881 62.1% 147,272 36.0% 7,815 1.9% 1984 411,144 297,523 72.4% 108,510 26.4% 5,111 1.2% 1980 437,431 290,699 66.5% 110,192 25.2% 36,540* 8.3% 1976 344,071 204,151 59.3% 126,549 36.8% 13,371 3.9% 1972 310,379 199,384 64.2% 80,826 26.0% 30,169 9.8% 1968 291,183 165,369 56.8% 89,273 30.7% 36,541** 12.5% 1964 292,477 143,557 49.1% 148,920 50.9% -- -- 1960 300,450 161,597 53.8% 138,853 46.2% -- --

^ Nader 12,292 2.5%; ##Perot 62,518 12.7%; #Perot 130,395 27%; *Anderson 27,058; **Wallace 36,541

Outlook The state faced economic fallout during the Clinton era when Idaho’s farming and agricultural communities suffered setbacks as a result of a number environmental protections put in place by the Democratic administration. In 2000, George W. Bush carried the state by a 67-28% margin while two Republican candidates won their house races by 71 and 65%. Republicans fill all of Idaho’s major political positions, from the Governor to local representatives (there are 23 Democrats to the 82 Republicans in the state Senate and House). The last time a Democrat won the state was 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried the Idaho.

Needless to say, the Kerry-Edwards campaign has no real hope success in the state. The only exception is Blaine County, the wealthiest and most liberal county in the state, which went for Gore in 2000. It doesn’t hurt that Teresa Heinz Kerry has a home Blaine County (Ketchum to be exact).

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04) (Kerry also spent 10 off days at his vacation house)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,035 (ranks #26) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 59 30 *American Research Group 9/8-10 4 ILLINOIS

Overview Electoral College votes: 21 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 9,423,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 7,137,954 (As of General Primary 3/16/2004). Voters do not register by party

*More recent data will be out a week before the election.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 4,742,123 2,019,421 42.6% 2,589,026 54.6% 133,676^2.8% 1996 4,311,391 1,587,021 37.0% 2,341,744 54.3% 382,626## 9.0% 1992 5,050,157 1,734,096 34.3% 2,453,350 49.0% 862,711# 17.1% 1988 4,559,120 2,310,939 50.7% 2,215,940 48.6% 32,241 0.7% 1984 4,819,088 2,707,103 56.2% 2,086,499 43.3% 25,486 0.5% 1980 4,749,721 2,358,049 49.6% 1,981,413 41.7% 410,259* 8.7% 1976 4,718,914 2,364,269 50.1% 2,271,295 48.1% 83,350 1.8% 1972 4,723,236 2,788,179 59.0% 1,913,472 40.5% 21,585 0.5% 1968 4,619,749 2,174,774 47.1% 2,039,814 44.2% 405,161** 8.7% 1964 4,702,841 1,905,946 40.5% 2,796,833 59.5% 62 -- 1960 4,757,409 2,368,988 49.8% 2,377,846 50.0% 10,575 0.2%

^ Nader 103,759 2.2%; ##Perot 346,408 8%; #Perot 840,515 16.6%; *Anderson 346,754; **Wallace 390,958

Outlook Illinois has treated Democratic presidential candidates well in the past three elections and this year should be no different. The Democratic Daley family influence continues to reign supreme in the form of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. Daley was influential in swinging the traditionally Republican-leaning suburbs for Clinton in 1996 and Gore in 2000 and has officially endorsed the Kerry-Edwards for this election. Democrats also stack up as the better alternative to the Republican corruption that plagued the state party in recent years.

Although one current poll shows Bush closing in on the 10-point lead Kerry enjoyed over recent months, Bush has only visited the state once and Illinois has not been subjected to the advertising barrage currently overwhelming neighboring Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Polls show that the Kerry’s supporters in Illinois have increased their level of commitment to the candidate and the majority of voters continue to have a negative opinion of Bush’s job performance. The President is unlikely to carry the state.

Also of interest is the heated Senate race between the much-touted Democratic National Convention star, state Sen. Barack Obama, and his GOP conservative rival from Maryland, Alan Keyes (who accepted the Republican nomination in August after Jack Ryan dropped out of the race in late June because of sex scandal allegations). Recent polls show Obama well ahead his controversial opponent.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Campaign Contact Information Kerry-Edwards Porter McNeil Other: 309-236-1484 [email protected]

Republican Party of Illinois Executive Director Brad Goodrich Office: (217)525-0011

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,483 (ranks #11) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 46 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 6

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 38 55 *Research 2000 10/3-4 4 40 49 Market Shares Corp. 9/17-20 4 INDIANA

Overview Electoral College votes: 11 Polls Close: 7pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,592,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 4,008,636. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,199,302 1,245,836 56.6% 901,980 41.0% 51,486^ 2.3% 1996 2,135,842 1,006,693 47.1% 887,424 42.0% 241,725## 11.3% 1992 2,305,871 989,375 4 30% 848,420 37.0% 468,076# 20.3% 1988 2,168,621 1,297,763 59.8% 860,643 39.7% 10,215 0.5% 1984 2,233,069 1,377,230 61.7% 841,481 37.7% 14,358 0.6% 1980 2,242,033 1,255,656 56.0% 844,197 37.7% 142,180* 6.3% 1976 2,220,362 1,183,958 53.3% 1,014,714 45.7% 21,690 1.0% 1972 2,125,529 1,405,154 66.1% 708,568 33.3% 11,807 0.6% 1968 2,123,597 1,067,885 50.3% 806,659 38.0% 249,053** 11.7% 1964 2,091,606 911,118 4 36% 1,170,848 56.0% 9,640 0.4% 1960 2,135,360 1,175,120 55.0% 952,358 44.6% 7,882 0.4%

^ Nader 18,531 0.8%; ##Perot 224,299 10.5%; #Perot 455,934 19.8%; *Anderson 111,639; **Wallace 243,108

Outlook Indiana has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore 57% to 41%, losing only 9 of 92 counties. Bush won the under 30 vote that year 64% to 34%, a bad sign for the Democrats looking to the future. Indiana is considered a safe state for Bush this year.

Historically, the state does have a large enough Democratic base in the state to allow Democrats to win. Indiana has the nation’s second largest percentage of manufacturing workers and is full of blue-collar unions. This in part is how Democrats won the governorship and how Sen. Evan Bayh (D) won his Senate seat by an overwhelmingly large margin in 2000.

Despite that, Indiana’s cultural conservatism has kept it Republican in the presidential elections for a generation. Indiana is usually not visited by presidential candidates and neither candidate has advertised here this year.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,414 (ranks #13) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 24 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 61 33 *Selzer & Co. 9/29-10/3 3.2 54 39 American Research Group 9/16-20 4 IOWA

Overview Electoral College votes: 7 Polls Close: 10pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,251,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 1,892,731; Registered Democrats: 581,675; Registered Republicans: 591,000; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 720,056 (Oct. 01, 2004 Source: Secretary of State)

*Check back closer to election for updated figures. Last day to register is Oct. 23, 2004. If you include inactive voters there are 2,064,423 total registered voters in the state.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,315,563 634,373 48.2% 638,517 48.5% 42,673^ 3.2% 1996 1,234,075 492,644 40.0% 620,258 50.3% 121,173## 10.0% 1992 1,354,607 504,891 37.3% 586,353 43.3% 263,363# 19.4% 1988 1,225,614 545,355 44.5% 670,557 54.7% 9,702 .8% 1984 1,319,805 703,088 53.3% 605,620 45.9% 11,097 .8% 1980 1,317,661 676,026 51.3% 508,672 38.6% 132,963* 10.1% 1976 1,279,306 632,863 49.5% 619,931 48.5% 26,512 2.0% 1972 1,225,944 706,207 57.6% 496,206 40.5% 25,531 1.9% 1968 1,167,931 619,106 53.0% 476,699 40.8% 72,126** 6.2% 1964 1,184,539 449,148 37.9% 733,030 61.9% 2,361 .2% 1960 1,273,810 722,381 56.7% 550,565 43.2% 864 .1%

^Nader 29,374 2.2%; ##Perot 105,159 8.5%; #Perot 253,468 18.7%; *Anderson 115,633; **Wallace 66,422

Outlook Iowa has voted for the Democrat in each of the last four elections but the margin in 2000 makes it a clear battleground state. In the 1970s, the state was culturally conservative and voted Republican but, in the 1980s, Iowa voted on its economic interests: farm prices dropped dramatically and the state voted against Reagan both times. In 1988, it was Michael Dukakis’ second-best state. In the 1990s, as the state boomed, it voted for Clinton-Gore by large margins. In 2000, the state split like the country and went for Gore by only 4,144 votes, dividing on both cultural and economic issues.

Because of the state’s small population and first-in-the-nation caucuses, local politics play perhaps a larger role in Iowa’s presidential vote than in other states. Presidential candidates are routinely asked to support ethanol subsidies as a benchmark of commitment to the state. This year, growing concerns about the outsourcing of jobs and the disappearance of family farms forced several of the Democratic primary candidates to the right on some trade issues. On January 19th, 2004, the state gave John Kerry a come from behind caucus victory that propelled his candidacy throughout the primaries. Kerry’s team ran an impressive ground operation directed by GOTV guru Michael Whouley and also touted an endorsement from the beret-wearing Christie Vilsack, wife of (neutral) Governor Tom Vilsack (D). Even Howard Dean’s endorsement from popular Sen. Tom Harkin was not enough to overcome the Kerry campaign’s combination of momentum and mobilization.

Iowa has a strong pacifist streak and the state has been particularly hard hit by National Guard deployments and troop deaths. According to Associated Press reports, since September 11, more than 70% of Iowa’s 9,000 National Guard soldiers have been called to active duty. In July 2004, the Iowa National Guard had 1,300 guardsmen on active duty, including 300 troops in Iraq, 300 in Kosovo and 700 in Afghanistan (AP 7/30/04). Five Iowa Guard soldiers have been killed in action.

The other major issue in Iowa continues to be the economy. The state lost 20,000 jobs in 2001 alone and it a low point in June 2003, down 42,600 jobs (1,477,900 in January 2001 to 1,435,300 in June 2003). On the upside, employment has rebounded somewhat to 1,449,800 jobs in August 2004 and the state’s unemployment rate is almost 1% below the national average (5.4%) at 4.5%. Beyond the economic recovery, for President Bush, the state’s more traditional/conservative values and the relatively large and well organized anti-abortion movement may be the areas of key support.

Because of the 2000 margin, which surprised Republicans who had not expected to come so close, both campaigns have spent enormous resources in the state. Both campaigns have massive field staffs and are spending millions on television ads. They had each visited seven times by September 2004 (not counting time Kerry spent there during the primaries which is counted in the chart below). Bush-Cheney spent over $1 million to run ads there from September 30 through October 13, which translates into 2,250 ads. For the same period, Kerry-Edwards spent $1.2 million, for a whopping 2,313 ads. The Republican-leaning 527 Progress for America Voter Fund spent $1 million in Iowa over a single 15-day period from August 24 to September 8, a real indication in the relatively cheap state. Counteracting those efforts are pro-Democrat groups like ACT, which has 8 offices, 20 paid staff and 50 paid canvassers in the state.

In terms of new voters, Iowa has 130,000 new voters and 81,000 signed up in 2004 alone. Per the AP, Democratic voters signed up 48,561, a 9% increase. Republicans added only 6,487 voters, up less than 1%.

In 2000, Gore won by carrying the over-65 vote, the Catholic vote and was helped massively by union turnout. For his part, Bush carried voters under 45 years old by 52 to 45, a reverse from nationwide trends. One indication of the state’s split: Gore actually lost the vote on Election Day but prevailed because of his lead in the absentee ballot count. For Bush to win the state this time, he will have to win more elderly voters and hang on to the state’s conservative pacifists upset by the war in Iraq.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent

Campaign Contact Information John Kerry Colin Van Ostern cell: 515 208 9428 office: 515 558 9580 ext 332 [email protected]

ACT State Director: Jeff Link Office: 515-244-3111 Cell: 515-778-7970

Comm. Director: Bo Berntsen Office: 515-244-3111 Cell: 515-306-6923

Bush Cheney Communications Director: Ann Marie Hauser Office: 515-230-4808

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 7 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 24 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,493 (ranks #22) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 15 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 46 43 Harstead Research (D) 10/3-4 3.7 46 47 Univ. of Minnesota 9/27-10/3 4 49 44 Strategic Vision (R) 9/27-29 3 KANSAS

Overview Electoral College votes: 6 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,028,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 1,615,699; Registered Democrats: 441,269; Registered Republicans: 742,903; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 431,527

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,072,218 622,332 58.0% 399,276 37.2% 50,610^ 4.7% 1996 1,074,300 583,245 54.3% 387,659 36.1% 103,396## 10.0% 1992 1,157,335 449,951 39.0% 390,434 34.0% 316,950# 27.4% 1988 993,044 554,049 55.8% 422,636 42.6% 16,359 1.6% 1984 1,021,991 677,296 66.3% 333,149 32.6% 11,546 1.1% 1980 979,795 566,812 57.9% 326,150 33.3% 86,833* 8.8% 1976 957,845 502,752 52.5% 430,421 44.9% 24,672 2.6% 1972 916,095 619,812 67.7% 270,287 29.5% 25,996 2.8% 1968 872,783 478,674 54.8% 302,996 34.7% 91,113** 10.5% 1964 857,901 386,579 45.1% 464,028 54.1% 7,294 0.8% 1960 928,825 561,474 60.4% 363,213 39.1% 4,138 0.5%

^ Nader 36,086 3.3%; ##Perot 92,639 8.6%; #Perot 312,358 27.0%; *Anderson 68,231; **Wallace 88,921

Outlook “We’re not in Kansas anymore!” may well be a slogan for Democrats on the presidential campaign trail in the heartland. Indeed, 1964 was the last time Kansas went to a Democrat and Lyndon Johnson narrowly won over Barry Goldwater. In 2000, Bush carried 103 of the state’s 105 counties and beat Gore by 21 percentage points, while Kansas’ native son Sen. Bob Dole beat Clinton 54 to 36% in 1996.

Some Democrats have managed to survive in this state and the most notable of them is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, whose name was briefly floated for the VP slot on Kerry’s ticket. Although a Democrat currently occupies one of the state’s four seats in House, Democratic Senators have not been seen in Kansas since 1932.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Campaign Contact Information Democratic Party of Kansas Executive Director Patrick Murray (785)243-0425 ext. 104

Republican Party of Kansas Executive Director Scott B. Poor (785) 234-3456

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,190 (ranks #24) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 11 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 57 35 *American Research Group 9/15-18 4

KENTUCKY

Overview Electoral College votes: 8 Polls Close: 7:00 pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,124,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,682,996; Registered Democrats: 1,582,532; Registered Republicans: 927,528; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 172,936

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,544,187 872,492 56.5% 638,898 41.4% 32,797^ 2.1% 1996 1,388,708 623,283 44.9% 636,614 45.8% 128,811## 9.3% 1992 1,492,900 617,178 41.3% 665,104 44.6% 210,618# 14.1% 1988 1,332,517 734,281 55.8% 580,368 43.9% 7,868 0.3% 1984 1,369,345 821,702 60.0% 539,539 39.4% 8,104 0.6% 1980 1,294,627 635,274 49.1% 616,417 47.6% 42,936* 3.3% 1976 1,167,142 531,852 45.6% 615,717 52.8% 19,573 1.6% 1972 1,067,499 676,446 63.4% 371,159 34.8% 19,894 1.8% 1968 1,055,893 462,411 43.8% 397,541 37.6% 195,941** 18.6% 1964 1,046,105 372,977 35.7% 669,659 64.0% 3,469 0.3% 1960 1,124,462 602,607 53.6% 521,855 46.4% -- --

^Nader 23,192 1.5%; ##Perot 120,396 9.7%; #Perot 203,944; *Anderson 31,127; **Wallace 193,098

Outlook Although Clinton carried this state by a narrow margin in 1996, Kentucky showed its Republican roots run deep when it elected Bush over Gore by a 57-41% margin. Things look no different this time around as Bush leads Kerry by nearly 20 points, according to a late September poll. Republicans enjoy wide control of this state, from governorship to the Senate and the 2003 election of Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher broke a record of Democratic Governors that dates back to 1967. Rep. Ben Chandler, one of KY’s two Democrats in the House, won his seat because of the vacancy left by Fletcher. Chandler will be running for reelection on Nov. 2.

There is also an interesting Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Democratic state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo. Bunning’s bid for reelection looked solid until he started acting a bit strange. Bunning increased his personal security staff, walked out of an interview with a news organization, compared Mongiardo to one of Saddam Hussein’s sons, and accused his opponent of roughing up his wife (an accusation Mongiardo’s staff denied). Bunning also insisted on debating Mongiardo via satellite and refused to allow neutral observers into the Republican National Committee's TV studio in Washington. Bunning’s campaign later admitted that he read his closing and opening statements from a teleprompter. Encouraged by Bunning’s bizarre behavior, Democrats have funneled an additional $200,000 into Mongiardo’s campaign. Although the playing field may have been leveled for Mongiardo, it isn’t yet clear who will win.

Also on Nov. 2, Kentuckians will also choose whether to add a ban on same-sex marriage to its constitution.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,692 (ranks #28) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 12 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 53 38 *Courier-Journal Bluegrass 9/10-15 3.5 57 39 *American Research Group 9/8-12 4

LOUISIANA

Overview Electoral College votes: 9 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,319,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,729,562; Registered Democrats: 1,572,594; Registered Republicans: 632,430; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 524,538

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,765,656 927,871 52.6% 792,344 44.9% 45,441^ 2.5% 1996 1,783,959 712,586 39.9% 927,837 52.0% 143,536## 8.1% 1992 1,790,017 733,386 41.0% 815,971 45.6% 240,660# 13.4% 1988 1,628,202 883,702 54.3% 717,460 44.1% 27,040 1.7% 1984 1,706,822 1,037,299 60.8% 651,586 38.2% 17,937 1.0% 1980 1,548,591 792,853 51.2% 708,453 45.7% 47,285* 3.1% 1976 1,278,439 587,446 46.0% 661,365 51.7% 29,628 2.3% 1972 1,051,491 686,852 65.3% 298,142 28.4% 66,497 6.3% 1968 1,097,450 257,535 23.5% 309,615 28.2% 530,300** 48.3% 1964 896,293 509,225 56.8% 387,068 43.2% -- 0.0% 1960 807,891 230,980 28.6% 407,339 50.4% 169,572 21.0%

^ Nader 20,473 1.2%; ##Perot 123,293 6.9%; #Perot 211,478; *Anderson 26,345; **Wallace 530,300

Outlook At the moment, Louisiana has a slate of elected leaders that would make any Democrat happy: a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators and an almost evenly-divided delegation to the House of Representatives. But the state went solidly for Bush in 2000 and will almost certainly do so again this year.

At one point, the Kerry campaign targeted the state, hoping to ride the wave created by Democrat Kathleen Blanco’s unexpected win in the March 2004 gubernatorial election. Kerry sent staff to the state, visited five times and sent John Edwards to the state for his first solo campaign trip as the vice presidential nominee. Louisiana was supposed to be part of an ad buy beginning October 5, but the campaign decided at the end of September that the state was probably not worth using limited resources to win.

So what made Louisiana go from safe Clinton to likely Republican? Part of the shift is what was seen across the South in 2000: a cultural, conservative shift to the Republican party. This can also be seen in the state’s recent referendum on the definition of marriage: on September 18, 78% of the state voted for a ban on gay marriage (the initiative was declared unconstitutional a few weeks later but is expected to pass again next time around). The other major issue is a sharp divide in who votes for whom: Catholics tend to vote Democratic while Protestants go for Republicans, blacks vote for Democrats (Gore 92% to Bush’s 6%) while whites voted for Republicans (Bush’s 72% to Gore’s 26%). If turnout among blacks had been slightly higher in 2000 (35% instead of 29% according to National Journal), Gore would have carried the state. But even with that base, no poll has shown Kerry ahead of Bush in the state this year.

The most competitive race in the state is probably the race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator John Breaux. In Louisiana, all candidates run in a single primary and, if no one gets 50% on November 2, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will meet in a December 4th runoff. Republicans cleared their field for Vitter, virtually guaranteeing him a spot in the runoff. The Democratic establishment, including Breaux, is rallying around Chris John. The race is a toss-up

Democrats like Blanco have had success in the state by turning out black and lower- income voters in large numbers, winning sizeable margins in New Orleans and making in-roads in traditional Republican areas and among conservative whites men referred to the state as “Bubbas”. If either John or Kerry hope to prevail, both will need demographics like that.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,723 (ranks #8) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 16 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 42 *American Research Group 9/17-21 4 53 36 Marketing Research 8/31-9/2 4 MAINE

Overview Electoral College votes: 4 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,019,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 957,485; Registered Democrats: 297,831; Registered Republicans: 274,727; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 384,927 (source: January 2004, Secretary of State Website) * Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 651,817 286,616 44.0% 319,951 49.1% 45,250^ 6.9% 1996 605,897 186,378 30.8% 312,788 51.6% 106,731## 17.6% 1992 679,499 206,504 30.4% 263,420 38.8% 209,575# 30.8% 1988 555,035 307,031 55.0% 243,569 44.0% 4,335 1.0% 1984 553,144 336,500 60.8% 214,515 38.8% 2,129 0.4% 1980 523,011 238,522 45.6% 220,974 42.3% 63,515* 12.1% 1976 483,216 236,320 48.9% 232,279 48.1% 14,617 3.0% 1972 417,042 256,458 61.5% 160,584 38.5% -- -- 1968 392,936 169,254 43.1% 217,312 55.3% 6,370** 1.6% 1964 380,965 118,701 31.2% 262,264 68.8% -- -- 1960 421,767 240,608 57.0% 181,159 43.0% -- --

^ Nader 37,1275.7%; ##Perot 85,970 14.2%; #Perot 206,820; *Anderson 53,327; **Wallace 6,370

Outlook With only four Electoral College votes, Maine is not exactly a treasure trove for presidential candidates. But, with its contrarian nature (since 1948, no state has voted for the losing side in a presidential more times) and divided society (the thriving coast versus the contracting interior), Maine looks like an inviting target to both parties.

Part of Maine’s attraction is also its way of assigning Electoral College votes: Like Nebraska, Maine assigns one elector to the winner in each congressional district, not simply winner take all. In 2000, Bush lost the second district by only one%: if that were reversed, he would have won 272 electoral votes instead of 271.

Maine has a commitment to environmental protection, an aversion to cultural change and a rapidly changing economy. The coast line is booming with biotech, organic farming, and tourism. The interior, however, is contracting as paper mills and shoe factories disappear. In the past four years, the state saw a drop in total jobs (from 609,800 in January 2001 to 603,800 in April 2003) and but has since rebounded to 614,900 jobs in August 2004. In manufacturing jobs, however, the change has been unidirectional: from 78,500 jobs in January 2001 to 61,000 in August 2004. The unemployment rate in August 2004 was 4.5%, under the national average of 5.4%.

Perhaps remembering 2000’s almost-win, the Bush-Cheney campaign targeted the sate early on, sending field staff and visiting personally. As late as September, the Bush twins Jenna and Barbara stumped for their father in a trip to University of Maine and the campaign continued to advertise through the end of September. The Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, ME also gives Bush grounding in the state and publicity whenever he visits it.

The Kerry effort in the state is more focused on keeping the state in the win column. The team is confident of Kerry’s popularity in the southern part of the state and has been concentrating on turning out voters in the north. Perhaps underscoring its overall comfort level in the state, Kerry has not visited since February, leaving it to his vice presidential candidate. Bush, by contrast, visited that crucial second district on September 23 for a rally in Bangor.

This intensity can been seen the swing 2nd district: Veterans make up 13% of the US voting population but are 16% of the electorate in the second district. Recognizing the role vets may play there, both campaigns have major operations targeting the group. On September 14, for example, the Kerry campaign sent Vietnam vet and former Sen. Max Cleland to Bangor. An hour later, the Bush campaign held a Veterans for Bush event across town.

Both campaigns are on the air in the state. Before Labor Day, the campaigns spent a combined $1.5 million on television spots. Post Labor Day through the second week of October, each side spent approximately $200,000 a week, saturating the airwaves.

This year’s vote may or may not be complicated by Maine’s independent streak. In 1992, more Maine voters chose Ross Perot than George H.W. Bush. In 2000, Ralph Nader received 37,127 votes (5.7%), which was more than Al Gore’s margin of victory (33,335). Nader is on the ballot again this year.

There are two referenda on Maine’s ballot this year: one to cap property taxes and the other on bear-baiting. It is unclear how those initiatives will affect voter turnout.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,002 (ranks #41) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 39 42 *Strategic Marketing 9/23-27 5 42 45 *Critical Insights 9/10-23 4.5 MARYLAND

Overview Electoral College votes: 10 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,131,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,774,613; Registered Democrats: 1,555,569; Registered Republicans: 832,616; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 386,428

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,020,480 813,797 40.3% 1,140,782 56.5% 65,901^ 3.3% 1996 1,780,870 681,530 38.3% 966,207 54.3% 133,133## 7.5% 1992 1,985,046 707,094 35.6% 988,571 49.8% 289,381# 14.6% 1988 1,714,358 876,167 51.0% 826,304 48.0% 11,887 1.0% 1984 1,675,873 879,918 52.5% 787,935 47.0% 8,020 0.5% 1980 1,540,496 680,606 44.2% 726,161 47.1% 133,729* 8.7% 1976 1,439,897 672,661 46.7% 759,612 52.8% 7,624 0.5% 1972 1,353,812 829,305 61.3% 505,781 37.4% 18,726 1.3% 1968 1,235,039 517,995 41.9% 538,310 43.6% 178,734**14.5% 1964 1,116,457 385,495 34.5% 730,912 65.5% 50 0.0% 1960 1,055,349 489,538 46.4% 565,808 53.6% 3 0.0%

^Nader 53,768 2.7%; ##Perot 115,812 6.5%; #Perot 281,414; *Anderson 119,537; **Wallace 178,734

Outlook In the 1990s, Maryland became one of the most Democratic states in Presidential elections. It was Bill Clinton's third-best state in 1992, fifth-best in 1996 and Al Gore's fourth-best in 2000. This is due in part to the fact that 28% of Marylanders are African American, the highest percentage of any state outside the Deep South. In the 2000 election, George W. Bush won the white vote in Maryland, 51% to 46%. But blacks, casting one quarter of the total, voted 92% to 7% for Gore.

But while Maryland remains one of the nation’s most Democratic states with Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New York, all four interestingly elected Republican Governors in 2002. Maryland had not chosen a Republican governor since 1966 until Congressman Bob Ehrlich defeated Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski is seeking her fourth term running against Republican State Sen. E.J. Pipkin. Mikulski is expected to win that race.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 12 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly bike rides at USSS training facility) Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,320 (ranks #37) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 12 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 42 52 *Gonzales Research 10/1-5 3.5 43 52 *American Research Group 9/7-9 4 MASSACHUSETTS

Overview Electoral College votes: 12 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,946,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,172,651; Registered Democrats: 1,442,897; Registered Republicans: 530,512; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 1,999,242

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,702,984 878,502 32.5% 1,616,487 59.8% 208,001^7.7% 1996 2,556,785 718,107 28.1% 1,571,763 61.5% 266,915## 10.4% 1992 2,773,700 805,049 29.0% 1,318,662 47.5% 649,989#23.4% 1988 2,632,805 1,194,635 45.0% 1,401,415 53.0% 36,755 2.0% 1984 2,559,453 1,310,936 51.2% 1,239,606 48.4% 8,911 0.4% 1980 2,524,298 1,057,631 41.9% 1,053,802 41.7% 412,865* 16.4% 1976 2,547,558 1,030,276 40.4% 1,429,475 56.1% 87,807 3.5% 1972 2,458,756 1,112,078 45.2% 1,332,540 54.2% 14,138 0.6% 1968 2,331,752 766,844 32.9% 1,469,218 63.0% 95,690** 4.1% 1964 2,344,798 549,727 23.4% 1,786,422 76.2% 8,649 0.4% 1960 2,469,480 976,750 39.6% 1,487,174 60.2% 5,556 0.2%

^ Nader 173,564 17 6.4%##Perot 227,217 8.9%; #Perot 630,731; *Anderson 382,539; **Wallace 87,088

Outlook It should come as a surprise to no one that Kerry is leading by a huge margin in his home state of Massachusetts. This state, deemed by some as the East Coast’s liberal heartland, is home to Sen. Ted Kennedy and one openly gay congressman, Rep. Barney Frank. All of the state’s Senate and House representatives are Democrats and the sole Republican with any serious clout is Governor Mitt Romney, who has also been mentioned as a potential presidential candidate in 2008.

The only uncertainty surrounding Massachusetts and Nov. 2 is the question of what will happen to Kerry’s Senate seat if he wins the Presidency. The Massachusetts state legislature passed a bill that denies Gov. Romney the chance to appoint a successor in the event that Kerry wins. Romney vetoed the bill but the legislature overrode his decision. According to the new law, Kerry’s empty seat will remain vacant until a special election is held, which would take place between 145 to 160 days after he is elected president. This allows the state’s voters to choose a Democrat rather than allowing Romney to choose a Republican.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04) (not including Kerry’s 36 off days in the state)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,322 (ranks #36) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 22 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 7

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 27 64 *American Research Group 9/10-13 4 30 56 *Merrimack College 7/18-28 4.1 MICHIGAN

Overview Electoral College votes: 17 Polls Close: 9:00pm EST Voting Age Population: 7,541,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 7,082,742 (As of 10/04 Source: Kelly Chesney, Media Communications Office). Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 4,232,711 1,953,139 46.1% 2,170,418 51.3% 109,154^ 2.6% 1996 3,848,844 1,481,212 38.5% 1,989,653 51.7% 377,979## 9.8% 1992 4,274,673 1,554,940 36.4% 1,871,182 43.8% 848,551# 9.8% 1988 3,669,163 1,965,486 54.0% 1,675,783 46.0% 27,894 1.0 1984 3,801,658 2,251,571 59.2% 1,529,638 40.2% 20,449 0.6% 1980 3,909,725 1,915,225 49.0% 1,661,532 42.5% 332,968* 8.5% 1976 3,653,749 1,893,742 51.8% 1,696,714 46.4% 63,293 1.8% 1972 3,489,727 1,961,721 56.2% 1,459,435 41.8% 68,571 2.0% 1968 3,306,250 1,370,665 41.5% 1,593,082 48.2% 342,503** 10.3% 1964 3,203,102 1,060,152 33.1% 2,136,615 66.7% 6,335 0.2% 1960 3,318,097 1,620,428 48.8% 1,687,269 50.9% 10,400 0.3%

^ Nader 84,165 2%; ##Perot 336,670 8.7%; #Perot 824,813; *Anderson 275,223; **Wallace 331,968

Outlook Although Michigan voted for Republicans in the 1970s and 1980s, it has swung back to the Democrats in terms of presidential politics since 1992. In 2000, it was heavily targeted by both sides but eventually gave Al Gore a margin of almost five%.

Until the mid-1990s, there was a clear split in the state: Detroit voted Democrat, “outstate”, as the rest of the state is known, voted Republican. In the late 1990s, however, those demographics began to shift as Detroit shrunk and its metro areas and the rest of the state grew. This trend followed the general shift away from union vs. management politics as Michigan moved towards more service-oriented jobs

Although it boomed in the 1990s, over the past four years, Michigan has experienced an economic downturn, losing a total of 238,800 jobs (from 4,595,500 in January 2001 to 4,356,700 in August 2004). The state lost 142,600 manufacturing jobs alone, (848,100 in January 2001 to 705,500 in August 2004), sparking furious discussion about outsourcing, worker training and the future of Michigan’s economy.

The Bush-Cheney campaign has targeted the state on two levels: long-standing conservative values important to the voters who live in the Grand Rapids area and new found concerns about security (so-called “security moms”) important to voters across the state. For its part, the Kerry campaign has focused on Kerry’s plans to create new jobs and tried to capitalize on concern about the war in Iraq: 30 Michigan soldiers have died as of October 6. Kerry has also been helped by the state’s Governor, Jennifer Granholm, who has been an articulate and much-used surrogate, particularly on the economy.

Both campaigns have traveled the state extensively and spent big bucks on advertising. The Michigan Campaign Finance Network reported that, through October 7, presidential ad buys on broadcast TV totaled a (record) $28.2 million. According to the MCFN, Bush- Cheney spent about $11.5m to Kerry’s $8.1. And in one week in October, from October 7-13, Kerry-Edwards spent $2.7 million to Bush-Cheney’s $2.8 million. Including outside groups like the Democratic-leaning Media Fund and the DNC, however, the totals reach Bush/allies $12 million and Kerry/allies $16.1 million.

Local parties are also focused on voter registration. The GOP says it has 105,000 new registrants and the Democrats are actively organizing as well. As of early October, Bush had visited the state 20 times to Kerry’s nine. Overall, the state has 302,707 new voters (4.3%) since 2000.

The state’s ballot also contains a definition of marriage referendum, which may either galvanize conservative voters or become a wedge issue the other way. The proposal would make the “the union of one man and one woman” the only “agreement recognized as a marriage or similar union for any purpose." Michigan is one of two states where activists believe they have a real opportunity to defeat an anti-gay marriage initiative (the other state is Oregon), mostly because of the exact wording: the Michigan language (like that in Ohio) not only bans same-sex marriage but also prevents public institutions from providing benefits to domestic partners. This widest-reaching ban has turned off some otherwise neutral groups like labor unions, who fear the measure would hinder their bargaining power. Recent polls suggest that voters are evenly split on the ban’s passage.

In 2000, Gore won the state largely by harnessing the power of the automotive and teachers’ unions. In 2002, Granholm re-captured the governorship for Democrats by winning a solid majority in Detroit, appealing to affluent Oakland County, and getting union support from Flint, Saginow and Lansing despite low turnout. Granholm won without winning blue-collar Macomb but it was crucial Gore in 2000. For Kerry to hold the state, he needs to hold onto women, turn out Detroit and the unions in large numbers like Gore and also make some inroads in more conservative areas like Macomb.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Independence Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 9 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 9 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards: **Will probably rank #4 in total TV advertising dollars**

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,159 (ranks #25) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 29 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 48 Detroit Free Press 9/22-28 3.5 42 48 *Strategic Vision (R) 9/26-28 3

MINNESOTA

Overview Electoral College votes: 10 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,811,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 2,893,085. Voters do not register by party. * Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,438,685 1,109,659 45.5% 1,168,266 47.9% 160,760^ 6.6% 1996 2,192,640 766,476 35.0% 1,120,438 51.1% 59,997## 6.7% 1992 2,347,948 747,841 31.9% 1,020,997 43.5% 579,110# 24.7% 1988 2,096,790 962,337 46.0% 1,109,471 53.0% 24,982 1.0% 1984 2,084,449 1,032,603 49.5% 1,036,364 49.7% 15,482 0.8% 1980 2,051,980 873,268 42.6% 954,174 46.5% 224,538* 10.9% 1976 1,949,931 819,395 42.0% 1,070,440 54.9% 60,096 3.1% 1972 1,741,652 898,269 51.6% 802,346 46.1% 41,037 2.2% 1968 1,588,506 658,643 41.5% 857,738 54.0% 72,125** 4.5% 1964 1,554,462 559,624 36.0% 991,117 63.8% 3,721 0.2% 1960 1,541,887 757,915 49.2% 779,933 50.6% 4,039 0.2%

^ Nader 126,696 5.2%; ##Perot 52,222 5.8%; #Perot 562,506; *Anderson 174,990; **Wallace 68,931

Outlook There was a point at which Minnesota was almost unquestionably Democratic, with a commitment to progressive values that outstripped much of the rest of the country. The state has not voted for a Republican since 1971 when it went for Richard Nixon over George McGovern. In the 1990s, however, that began to shift: the election of reform candidate and former pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura as Governor was one sign of the break with tradition.

Perhaps more emblematic of the change in Minnesota’s political orientation was the election of Republican Norm Coleman to the US Senate in 2002. Coleman was elected after defeating former Vice President Walter Mondale, who stepped in after sitting Sen. Paul Wellstone was tragically killed in a plane crash on October 25, just 11 days before the election. Mondale and Wellstone represented the liberal/progressive Democratic- Farmer-Labor party; Coleman, not to put too fine a point on it, voted for President Bush’s tax cuts, and his win suggests a new sort of Minnesota voter. In 2000, Al Gore carried the state by a narrow, two-point margin. As National Journal points, out, “For the first time in half a century Minnesota cast a lower Democratic percentage for president than the nation as a whole.”

Demographically, the Twin Cities are usually heavily Democratic in presidential years, with Republicans traditionally carrying southern Minnesota and the areas north and west of St. Cloud. The key swing area appears to be the so-called “Ventura Belt,” made up of the growing suburbs outside of the Twin Cities core but still inside its media market.

The Bush-Cheney campaign is aggressively targeting voters in the Ventura Belt and is working on turnout in more traditionally suburban areas. The concentration the suburbs, where the church-going population skews Republican is probably key. If Bush can do just slightly better there (he won 50 to 44 in 2000), he may carry the day.

For Kerry to hold the state, he needs to turn out the vote in the Twin Cities and run close to even in the Ventura Belt. To do so, in late September the campaign moved extra resources into the state (from no-win places like Virginia) and is being supplemented by outside groups like ACT, which has more than 170 field workers in the state.

Because Minnesota is so competitive, it has seen a much larger proportion of television advertising than in years past. The state is part of both campaigns’ core ad buys; For example, from the week of October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney spent $$952,274 to and Kerry-Edwards spent $675,634 on television ads. The anti-Kerry Swift Boat Veterans for Truth group has targeted its ads at the state. Voter registration is also up, with 100,000 new voters on the rolls

This year, Bush can point to fairly good job numbers: Minnesota was not as hard hit as some states by the recession and has lost less than 20,000 jobs (2,695,400 in January 2001 to 2,676,300 in August 2004). The unemployment rate is also below the national average (5.4%) at 4.8%. For Kerry, he may be able to take advantage of discomfort with the war in Iraq and to tap into the traditions that have long-supported Democratic candidates.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 5 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,432 (ranks #17) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 11 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 43 50 Hart Research 10/2-4 3.5 46 47 Strategic Vision (R) 9/26-28 3 MISSISSIPPI

Overview Electoral College votes: 6 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,120,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 1,465,000 as of November 2004. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 994,184 572,844 57.6% 404,614 40.7% 16,726^ 1.7% 1996 893,857 439,838 49.2% 394,022 44.1% 59,997## 6.7% 1992 981,793 487,793 49.7% 400,258 40.8% 93,742# 9.5% 1988 931,527 557,890 60.0% 363,921 39.0% 9,716 1.0% 1984 941,104 582,377 61.9% 352,192 37.4% 6,535 0.7% 1980 892,620 441,089 49.4% 429,281 48.1% 22,250* 2.5% 1976 769,361 366,846 47.7% 381,309 49.6% 21,206 2.7% 1972 645,963 505,125 78.2% 126,782 19.6% 14,056 2.2% 1968 654,509 88,516 13.5% 150,644 23.0% 415,349** 63.5% 1964 409,146 356,528 87.1% 52,618 12.9% -- 0.0% 1960 298,171 73,561 24.7% 108,362 36.3% 116,248 39.0%

^8,122 Nader 0.8%; ##Perot 52,222 5.8%; #Perot 85,626; *Anderson 12,036; **Wallace 415,349

Outlook The last time the state helped put a Democrat into the White House was 1976, when Mississippi went to Jimmy Carter, 51 to 49%. Republicans hold the governorship (the Governor is Haley Barbour, former head of the Republican National Committee) and both Senate seats, the most famous of whom is former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott. Two of Mississippi’s four House representatives are Democrats yet one of them, Gene Taylor, was installed by the Democratic state legislature despite failing to win 50% of the popular vote. Needless to say, Bush leads Kerry in this conservative state.

On Nov. 2, Mississippians will be voting on a proposal to limit marriage to a man and woman.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,025 (ranks #6) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 16 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 51 42 American Research Group 9/14-17 4 MISSOURI

Overview Electoral College votes: 11 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,297,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 3,511,894 as of August 4, 2004 primary. Voters do not register by party

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,359,892 1,189,924 50.4% 1,111,138 47.1% 58,830^ 2.5% 1996 2,158,065 890,016 41.2% 1,025,935 47.5% 242,114## 11.2% 1992 2,391,565 811,159 33.9% 1,053,873 44.1% 526,533# 22.0% 1988 2,093,713 1,084,953 52.0% 1,001,619 48.0% 7,141 0.0% 1984 2,122,783 1,274,188 60.0% 848,583 40.0% 12 0.0% 1980 2,099,824 1,074,181 51.2% 931,182 44.3% 94,461* 4.5% 1976 1,953,600 927,443 47.5% 998,387 51.1% 27,770 1.4% 1972 1,855,803 1,153,852 62.2% 697,147 37.6% 4,804 0.2% 1968 1,809,502 811,932 44.9% 791,444 43.7% 206,126** 11.4% 1964 1,817,879 653,535 36.0% 1,164,344 64.0% -- 0.0% 1960 1,934,422 962,221 49.7% 972,201 50.3% -- 0.0%

^Nader 38,515 1.6%; ##Perot 217,188 10.1%; #Perot 518,741; *Anderson 77,920; **Wallace 206,126

Outlook Missouri is as close as the US comes to a bellweather state: it has voted for the eventual winner in every presidential election since 1900 except one (in 1956 it voted for Stevenson). In 2000, it was nearly as close as the nation, with George Bush winning by a narrow 3% margin after intense efforts on both sides.

For that reason, Missouri was supposed to be one of the campaign’s biggest swing states, a top mark for both campaigns. The Bush campaign started airings ads in March, spending as much as $256,000 a week in the state in May. The Democrats were also active, with the DNC spending almost $3.4 million on television ads promoting Kerry in the state. ACT says it registered 120,000 new voters. Bush visited eight times before the middle of September and Kerry visited twelve times before September 15.

With less than four weeks to go, however, the Kerry campaign pulled its ads slated to begin October 5. The campaign insists it still considers Missouri a battleground, and indeed it has some 70-odd paid staff members in the state according to the DNC. But the crucial advertising money has essentially dried up: the last Kerry ad aired before the Democratic convention and the last DNC-funded ad ran September 4. Sensing the shift, the Bush-Cheney campaign reduced its buy to only $109,000 for the week ending October 3 and only $60,000 for the week ending October 8. By October 15, both campaigns were off the air.

Missouri could have been more competitive for several reasons. First, it has a large union background, evidenced by the career of Congressman Dick Gephardt of St. Louis. Second, it lost a significant number of jobs, from 2,737,900 in January 2001 to a low of 2,673,700 in July 2003 (64,200 total). Jobs have rebounded to 2,709,000 (net loss 28,900) but its unemployment rate is above the national average at 5.5%. Third, it is paying heavily for the war in Iraq: as John Kerry pointed out in the second presidential state held at Washington University in St. Louis, if Missouri’s National Guard were a country, it would be the third-largest member of the coalition in Iraq. Missouri has 4,581 troops called up as of September 22, more than the current third-largest member, Italy, which has 3,120 troops in Iraq.

So why is Missouri drifting Republican? In recent years, Democrats have done well in the areas of St. Louis and Kansas City but have been unable to make inroads outside of cities. Of the 103 counties outside the two big metro areas, Bush carried 95 and Gore eight. Democrats have also been unable to keep those voters who move out of the metro areas or to reach out to more conservative voters in rural communities.

If Kerry has essentially ceded the state, the more competitive races will be for Governor and Senate. For Governor, current Republican Secretary of State Matt Blunt (son of Congressman Roy Blunt) is running against Democratic Auditor Claire McCaskill. For Senator, Democratic Treasurer Nancy Farmer is hoping to unseat Republican Kit Bond Treasurer Nancy Farmer. In both races, the Republican will likely prevail, but the contests are certainly nasty. . Finally, shadowing all of the races is a lawsuit regarding how the state will treat provisional ballots. That suit is expected to be decided before Election Day, potentially creating controversy over the results.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,581 (ranks #10) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 17 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 44 American Research Group 9/16-19 4 49 42 Research 2000 9/13-16 3.5

MONTANA

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 10pm EST Voting Age Population: 702,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: 461,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 410,997 240,178 58.4% 137,126 33.4% 33,693^ 8.2% 1996 407,261 179,652 44.1% 167,922 41.2% 59,687## 14.7% 1992 410,611 144,207 35.1% 154,507 37.6% 111,897# 27.2% 1988 365,674 190,412 52.0% 168,936 46.0% 6,326 2.0% 1984 384,377 232,450 60.5% 146,742 38.2% 5,185 1.3% 1980 363,952 206,814 56.8% 118,032 32.4% 39,106* 10.8% 1976 328,734 173,703 52.8% 149,259 45.4% 5,772 1.8% 1972 317,603 183,976 57.9% 120,197 37.8% 13,430 4.3% 1968 274,404 138,835 50.6% 114,117 41.6% 21,452** 7.8% 1964 278,628 113,032 40.6% 164,246 58.9% 1,350 0.5% 1960 277,579 141,841 51.1% 134,891 48.6% 847 0.3%

^Nader 24,437 5.9%; ##Perot 55,229 13.6%; #Perot 107,225; *Anderson 29,281; **Wallace 20,015 Outlook From the vast eastern stretches of plains and plateaus to the Rocky Mountain ranges in the West, hope for a Kerry win of Montana is nowhere to be found. Democrats have won the state in some presidential elections (for example, 1992, 1984, 1972 etc.), but Bush swept the state in a landslide win—58 to 33%. Current polls show Bush leading Kerry by nearly 30 points.

From 1952 to 1988 Montana regularly sent Democrats into the Senate. However this trend tapered off after1992, when the Clinton administration’s environmental policies became enormously unpopular in the state. The governor and sole House Representative are Republicans and a Democrat and a Republican represent the state in the Senate.

On Nov. 2 Montanans will be voting on a gay marriage Constitutional Initiative that will prohibit marriage between persons of the same sex. It is expected to pass easily. Voters will also be voting on proposition that decriminalizes marijuana for medical purposes. The measure would create a statewide registry so that law enforcement can monitor the situation and would retain other restrictions on marijuana for non-medical purposes. The measure is expected to pass with relatively little opposition.

Former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot is now the National Campaign Chairman for Bush- Cheney ‘04.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate. Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,273 (ranks #38) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 54 36 *Mason-Dixon 9/20-22 4 60 32 *American Research Group 9/7-9 4 NEBRASKA

Overview Electoral College votes: 5 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,298,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 1,083,544; Registered Democrats: 381,991; Registered Republicans: 543,935; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 157,618

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 697,019 433,862 62.2% 231,780 33.3% 31,377^ 4.5%3 1996 677,415 363,467 53.7% 236,761 35.0% 77,187## 11.4% 1992 737,546 343,678 46.6% 216,864 29.4% 177,004# 24.0% 1988 661,465 397,956 60.0% 259,235 39.0% 4,274 1.0% 1984 652,090 460,054 70.6% 187,866 28.8% 4,170 0.6% 1980 640,854 419,937 65.5% 166,851 26.0% 54,066* 8.5% 1976 607,668 359,705 59.2% 233,692 38.5% 14,271 2.3% 1972 576,289 406,298 70.5% 169,991 29.5% -- -- 1968 536,851 321,163 59.8% 170,784 31.8% 44,904** 8.4% 1964 584,154 276,847 47.4% 307,307 52.6% -- -- 1960 613,095 380,553 62.1% 232,542 37.9% -- --

^Nader 24,540 3.5%; ##Perot 71,278 10.5%; #Perot 174,104; *Anderson 44,993; **Wallace 44,904

Outlook Bush won Nebraska 62 to 33% in 2000, so it’s no surprise that neither candidate has paid much attention to the state. In 2002, Nebraska’s Republican Governor Mike Johanns and Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel were reelected by landslide margins and the state boasts three Republican Representatives. And although state Sen. Ben Nelson is a Democrat, he seems to stay clear of reminding voters of his party’s roots.

Of note is the fact that Nebraska joins Maine in being the only two states without a winner take all system, making it possible, though unlikely, that the state could split its electoral votes between Bush and Kerry. Like Main, Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner in each congressional district, not simply winner take all.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,413 (ranks #33) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 61 30 *American Research Group 9/9-12 4 NEVADA

Overview Electoral College votes: 5 Polls Close: 10 pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,660,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 945,981; Registered Democrats: 383,651; Registered Republicans: 382,630; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 179,700 (August 2004, Secretary of State Website)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 608,970 301,575 49.5% 279,978 46.0% 27,417^ 4.5% 1996 464,279 199,244 42.9% 203,974 43.9% 61,061## 13.2% 1992 506,318 175,828 34.7% 189,148 37.4% 141,342# 28.0% 1988 350,067 206,040 59.0% 132,738 38.0% 11,289 3.0% 1984 286,667 188,770 65.8% 91,655 32.0% 6,242 2.2% 1980 247,885 155,017 62.5% 66,666 26.9% 26,202* 10.6% 1976 201,876 101,273 50.2% 92,479 45.8% 8,124 4.0% 1972 181,766 115,750 63.7% 66,016 36.3% -- 0.0% 1968 154,218 73,188 47.5% 60,598 39.3% 20,432** 13.2% 1964 135,433 56,094 41.4% 79,339 58.6% -- 0.0% 1960 107,267 52,387 48.8% 54,880 51.2% -- 0.0%

^15,008 Nader 2.5%; ##Perot 43,986 9.5%; #Perot 132,580; *Anderson 17,651; **Wallace 20,432

Outlook Nevada is a rapidly changing state: it grew 66% between 1990 and 2000, on top of 50.1% growth between 1980-1990. As one Knight Ridder article put it, “In the four years since George W. Bush beat Al Gore by about 22,000 votes in Nevada, the state has added nearly 15 times that many people.” Nevada skews Republican, but all these new people present Democrats with an opportunity to win the state.

Critical to both parties are two things: one issue and one campaign tactic.

The issue is storing nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain. In 1987, Congress chose the site for the storage of nuclear waste and Nevada’s politicians have been fighting the choice ever since. In the 1990s, President Clinton’s pledge to veto any moves towards storing the waste in Yucca was critical to carrying the state two times. In 2000, George W. Bush capitalized on a statewide trend towards Republicans (who won all six statewide offices in 1998) and carried the state without promising a veto. He promised to veto a temporary storage site in the state but made no such promise about a permanent one. In February 2002, he designated Yucca Mountain as the permanent site. John Kerry opposes permanent storage of the waste at Yucca Mountain but has been unable to make Bush’s actions the key issue. Although voters say they care deeply about the issue, Kerry has not been particularly effective in drawing the distinction. If he can do so, he may swing some votes

The campaign tactic is turnout. Because Nevada has added so many potential voters, it is a real challenge for the parties to register them to vote and then turn them out on Election Day. Democrats have the most to gain from new, Democrat-leaning immigrants and lower income workers attracted by well paying union jobs in the tourism industry. To achieve this, the Kerry campaign, ACT and several labor unions are engaged in a massive turnout operation. The AFL-CIO says it has identified 60,000 union voters in Clark County. These efforts are being supported by a massive Spanish-language advertising campaign being conducted by the New Democrat Network and the Democratic National Committee and may be helped by interest in a ballot initiative that would raise the minimum wage. The turnout question for Democrats is whether they can register enough new voters by Election Day to take advantage of the changing demographics.

For Republicans, the turnout game is largely one of base politics. In 2000, Bush won by carrying the Republican areas of the state outside Clark County (where Las Vegas is located and 69% of the population lives) by enough to off-set Gore’s margin inside Clark (51.3% to 44.7%). For Bush to carry the state this year, he needs to mobilize those same voters in numbers to offset new Democrats. To do so, Bush has been advertising in large amounts, particularly in traditionally Republican Washoe County, where Lake Tahoe and Reno are located. Bush can also point to good economic numbers: 88,900 new jobs (1,050,100 in January 2001 to 1,139,000 in August 2004) and an unemployment rate of only 4%, well below the national average of 5.4%.

A final group that both campaigns are trying to turnout a final population: veterans. Veterans are 16% of the state's adult population and have grown 30.8% since 1990. To try to reach these voters, both campaigns have their “Veterans for…” operations in high gear, including visits by vets like Max Cleland.

In terms of new voters, Nevada has added 231,688 voters since 2000 (25%), and Clark County represents 150,000 of those. Democrats increased their numbers by 95,027, a rise of 33%. Republicans added 82,664 voters, a gain of 30.5%. Nonaffiliated voters rose 35%, with a gain of 36,474 people. Clark has

Both campaigns are advertising heavily in the state and have made multiple visits: From July 30 through August 23, Reno was the top TV market in the country for all advertising. Through the first week of October, Nevada markets were included in the $14 million spent by Bush and Kerry and are also an air war target for NDN, the DNC and Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. From October 7 through 13, Kerry-Edwards spent $562,666 to Bush-Cheney’s $889,364 (which both represent $200K increases over the previous week, suggesting a highly competitive atmosphere). Nevada is a Republican state with Libertarian roots, but Democrats hope changing demographics will make it competitive through Election Day.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 961 (ranks #43) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 48 44 Belden Russonello Stewart 9/20-28 4 53 43 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/18-21 5 NEW HAMPSHIRE

Overview Electoral College votes: 4 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 981,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total:1,182,816; Registered Democrats: 206,450; Registered Republicans: 245,305; Registered Unaffiliated/Minor Parties/Undeclared: 731,061 (source September 14, 2004 primary information, no update until after Election Day) * Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 569,081 273,559 48.1% 266,348 46.8% 29,174^ 5.1% 1996 499,175 196,532 39.4% 246,214 49.3% 56,429## 11.3% 1992 537,943 202,484 37.6% 209,040 38.9% 126,419# 23.6% 1988 451,074 281,537 62.0% 163,696 36.0% 5,841 1.0% 1984 389,066 267,051 68.6% 120,395 30.9% 1,620 .5% 1980 383,990 221,705 57.7% 108,864 28.4% 53,421* 13.9% 1976 339,618 185,935 54.7% 147,635 43.5% 6,048 1.8% 1972 334,055 213,724 64.0% 116,435 34.9% 3,896 1.1% 1968 297,298 154,903 52.1% 130,589 43.9% 11,806** 4.0% 1964 288,093 104,029 36.1% 184,064 63.9% 0 0 1960 295,761 157,989 53.4% 137,772 46.6% 0 0

^ Nader 22,198 3.9%; ##Perot 48,390 9.7%; #Perot 121,337; *Anderson 49,693; **Wallace 11,173

Outlook On its face, New Hampshire is an unlikely target state for Democrats: it has a strong Libertarian streak, a state law banning income taxes and the motto, “Live Free or Die.” But Bill Clinton won twice here and Al Gore lost by less than two% (7,211 votes). That margin was significantly smaller than either campaign expected, making the state a target for both candidates this year.

For Bush-Cheney, there is some natural cultural affinity from traditional Republicans on taxes, abortion and the fierce dedication to local control over budgets, education and services. The state has also boomed in recent years, adding new high-tech jobs to replace the old mills, and its unemployment rate in August 2004 was only 3.7%, nearly two points under the national average of 5.4%. But New Hampshire is not particularly fond of President Bush himself: this is the state that almost upset his march to the 2000 nomination, voting heavily for Sen. John McCain, 49% to 30%. New Hampshire is also environmentally conscious and has been disappointed by some Bush administration plans.

Kerry therefore has a window of opportunity which he and Campaign Chairwoman and former NH Governor Jeanne Shaheen have worked to exploit. Most of New Hampshire receives Boston television, and voters also know him from the recent primary process when New Hampshire cemented Kerry’s lead. The demographics of Democrats in the state also help: as National Journal wrote, “Once upon a time the typical Democratic primary voters (sic) here was a textile mill worker; now she is more likely to be an assistant professor,” one group of voter Kerry attracts. To win, however, Kerry needs (a) to turn out Dems in huge numbers and (b) to make inroads among the Independents, who are 37.7% of the electorate and already have a history of turning away from George Bush.

Both campaigns have spent lavishly to convince voters. In early October, WMUR station manager Jeff Bartlett told a local reporter that the campaigns were running about 60 ads per day and predicted a rise to around 200 in the last two weeks of the month. From September 30 to October 13, Kerry-Edwards spent $375K to Bush-Cheney’s almost $500K. Further, that amount does not include money being spent in the more-expensive Boston market. On September 23, the DCCC booked $660,000 worth of ads scheduled to run there in the final seven days of the campaign. Bush and Kerry have both visited, and Kerry brought actor Michael J. Fox along to focus on the swing vote issue of stem-cell research in the state on October 4.

New voters have been attracted at a slower rate than other battlegrounds. The state has added 18,793 new voters for a 2.6% rise. Democratic voters have grown slightly more, rising 3.7%, a gain of 7,292 people. Republicans grew 478, just 0.2%.

Unlike most states where the cities vote Democrat, the two big cities in New Hampshire, Manchester and Nashua, usually vote Republican and Democratic voters tend to be in the state capital (Concord) and in the university towns. If Kerry alters this pattern only slightly, he can win this time. In 2000, Gore pulled his top staff out of the state in early October and still came very close to winning its 4 Electoral College votes. Those four EC votes would have put him over the top, a fact lost on neither campaign.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 5 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 15 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,364 (ranks #34) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 45 47 *Research 2000 10/6 4.4 47 47 *American Research Group 10/3-5 4

NEW JERSEY

Overview Electoral College votes: 15 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 6,507,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 4,655,852; Registered Democrats: 1,170,475; Registered Republicans: 900,969; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 2,584,408 (National Journal July 10, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 3,187,226 1,284,173 40.3% 1,788,850 56.1% 114,203^3.6% 1996 3,075,807 1,103,078 35.9% 1,652,329 53.7% 320,400## 10.4% 1992 3,343,594 1,356,865 40.6% 1,436,206 43.0% 550,523# 16.4% 1988 3,099,553 1,743,192 56.0% 1,320,352 43.0% 36,009 1.0% 1984 3,217,862 1,933,630 60.1% 1,261,323 39.2% 22,909 0.7% 1980 2,975,684 1,546,557 52.0% 1,147,364 38.6% 281,763* 9.4% 1976 3,014,472 1,509,688 50.1% 1,444,653 47.9% 60,131 2.0% 1972 2,997,229 1,845,502 61.6% 1,102,211 36.8% 49,516 1.6% 1968 2,875,395 1,325,467 46.1% 1,264,206 44.0% 285,722** 9.9% 1964 2,847,663 964,174 33.9% 1,868,231 65.6% 15,258 0.5% 1960 2,773,111 1,363,324 49.2% 1,385,415 50.0% 24,372 0.8%

^Nader 94,554 3.0%; ##Perot 262,134 8.5%; #Perot 521,829; *Anderson 234,632; **Wallace 262,187

Outlook Before 1980, New Jersey was more or less considered to be a swing state. In the 1980s, the suburban masses tended Republican. However, since 1995, the suburban tendency and has been predominantly Democratic. In fact, in the 2000 elections, neither party targeted the New Jersey, as it was believed to be too strongly Democratic to justify spending valuable campaign dollars on expensive New York TV. Al Gore won the state easily in 2000. For Democrats, NJ (with its 15 electoral votes) is now considered a must- win state. If Kerry were to lose New Jersey in 2004, then it might be taken as a symbol that he already lost the election in entirety.

Bush is scheduled to visit the state on October 18, though the visit is unlikely to affect his chances in the state. Kerry is expected to carry the state even though some September and October polls showed Bush and Kerry coming close to even.

With the acknowledgement that this race may be closer than originally anticipated, both campaigns are focusing new attention on the state. Edwards has taken a few extended trips in late September/early October. Cheney is making his first trip to NJ in mid- October. However, although there will surely be more public relations efforts in the state, neither campaign is expected to spend serious campaign dollars in NJ.

Kerry’s campaign in New Jersey may have been weakened in part due to the scandal surrounding Gov. Jim McGreevy (D). McGreevy, whose administration had a number of ethical scandals, stunned voters when he announced on August 12 that he would resign, confessing that he is a “gay American.” Despite his announcement, McGreevy will not leave office until November 15.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) **scheduled to visit the week of October 18 Kerry 3 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,591 (ranks #15) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 24 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 41 47 Eagleton-Rutgers 10/1-6 4.1 46 49 Quinnipiac 10/1-4 3.4

NEW MEXICO

Overview Electoral College votes: 5 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,373,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 1,042,864; Registered Democrats: 530,324; Registered Republicans: 335,139; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 177,401 (source: 9/30/04 Secretary of State Website)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 598,605 286,417 47.8% 286,783 47.9% 25,369^ 4.2% 1996 556,074 232,751 41.9% 273,495 49.2% 49,828## 8.8% 1992 569,986 212,824 37.3% 261,617 45.9% 95,545# 16.8% 1988 521,287 270,341 52.0% 244,497 47.0% 6,449 1.0% 1984 514,370 307,101 59.7% 201,769 39.2% 5,500 1.1% 1980 456,971 250,779 54.9% 167,826 36.7% 38,366* 8.4% 1976 418,409 211,419 50.5% 201,148 48.1% 5,842 1.4% 1972 386,241 235,606 61.0% 141,084 36.5% 9,551 2.5% 1968 327,350 169,692 51.8% 130,081 39.7% 27,577** 8.5% 1964 328,645 132,838 40.4% 194,015 59.0% 1,792 0.6% 1960 311,107 153,733 49.4% 156,027 50.2% 1,347 0.4%

^ Nader 21,251 3.6%; ##Perot 32,257 5.8%; #Perot 91,895; *Anderson 29,459; **Wallace 25,737

Outlook Although Florida’s 537 votes receives most of the attention, the margin in New Mexico was even less: a miniscule 366 votes in favor of Gore. Also as in Florida, there were some major voting problems: at one point George Bush was leading by four votes when officials discovered that a fax had been misread as 640 instead of the correct 120, giving Bush 500 more votes than he received. When this error was corrected, Gore gained the 500 votes, enough to win the state. Since then, 56,312 new voters have registered in the state, enough to put it firmly in the toss-up category.

New Mexico may trend slightly Democrat: (a) its immigrant population has grown enormously in the past several years; (b) it has a Democratic governor in fmr. Clinton Energy Secretary Bill Richardson who is determined to carry his state for his party; and (c) as in Nevada, Democratic 527s like ACT and labor unions have placed massive emphasis on registering new voters. The New Democrat Network has also targeted the state, spending a portion of its $5 million advertising budget there. Both campaigns are spending heavily: for the week of October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney spent $576,324 to Kerry-Edwards’ $718,083.

In terms of new voters, Voter rolls grew by 100,793, or 9.6%. Republicans increased 28,079, or 9%. Democrats added 37,937, or 7.7%. Independents grew 34,874 or 30.1%, reports the AP.

But it is unclear whether those new voters will turnout and, most importantly, who they will vote for. Adding to the confusion is New Mexico’s early voting, which allows ballots to be cast beginning October 5. Republicans have been actively courting early and absentee voters, who may represent enough votes to overcome whatever happens on Nov. 2 itself. Bush-Cheney can also point to job growth in the state, which has gained jobs steadily over the past four years: 753,200 in January 2001 to 793,100 in August 2004 (a gain of 39,900 total). Republican 527s like Progress for America Voter Fund have run ads critical of Kerry on national security. The Bush team has also poured television money into the state and tried to reach out to Spanish-speakers through the Viva Bush program. (The Kerry variant is Unidos con Kerry.)

A further complication: the role of the Green Party in the state. Ralph Nader won 21,251 votes in 2000 and, after legal machinations, is on the ballot again this year. Greens play a role in statewide politics already, affecting House races and winning more than votes than Nader in the 2002 gubernatorial contest (26,465). It remains to be seen how the Greens will affect this year’s vote, who are on the ballot in the form of Steve Cobb.

The state has a mix of descendents of Spanish colonial families, ancient Indian populations, newer Mexican immigrants and more recent English-speaking culture. Demographically, Democrats do well in the northern areas of Santa Fe and Taos while Republicans dominate the southern areas, especially those eastern ones known as “Little Texas.” Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Silver City are swing areas, with immigrants who are cultural conservatives and but more economically liberal. Both campaigns need to pick up swing support to win.

A great quote: Barbara Richardson, on whether Bill Richardson will run for president in 2008, said, "I'll tell you what I tell him. 'That's another life and another wife.' Honest to God. Not my bag."

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 9 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,195 (ranks #40) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 5 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 47 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3-6 4 45 49 Hart Research (D) 10/2-4 3.5 43 46 Research & Polling 10/1-3 3

NEW YORK

Overview Electoral College votes: 31 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 14,657,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 11,246,362; Registered Democrats: 5,255,521; Registered Republicans: 3,132,161; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 2,858,680 (National Journal July 15, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 6,821,999 2,403,374 35.2% 4,107,697 60.2% 310,928^ 4.6% 1996 6,316,129 1,933,492 30.6% 3,756,177 59.5% 626,460## 9.9% 1992 6,926,925 2,346,649 33.9% 3,444,450 49.7% 1,135,826# 16.4% 1988 6,485,683 3,081,871 48.0% 3,347,882 52.0% 55,930 0.0% 1984 6,806,810 3,664,763 53.8% 3,119,609 45.8% 22,438 0.4% 1980 6,201,959 2,893,831 46.7% 2,728,372 44.0% 579,756* 9.3% 1976 6,534,170 3,100,791 47.5% 3,389,558 51.9% 43,821 0.6% 1972 7,165,919 4,192,778 58.5% 2,951,084 41.2% 22,057 0.3% 1968 6,791,688 3,007,932 44.3% 3,378,470 49.7% 405,286** 6.0% 1964 7,166,275 2,243,559 31.3% 4,913,102 68.6% 9,614 0.1% 1960 7,291,079 3,446,419 47.3% 3,830,085 52.5% 14,575 0.2%

^Nader 244,030 3.6%; ##Perot 503,458 8.0%; #Perot 1,090,721; *Anderson 467,131; **Wallace 358,864

Outlook Even though neither the Bush nor the Kerry campaign has actively vied for the traditionally Democratic state of New York, both have made visits in order to raise money for their race to the Presidency. As of Oct. 7, the Bush-Kerry campaign has raised $7,385,975 while the Kerry-Edwards campaign totaled $18,416,509.

Although Republicans have virtually no hope for winning the state, New York did host the Republican National Convention from August 30 through September 2. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been active in helping the Republicans in this election.

Democratic Sen. Charles E. Schumer is facing a rather uncompetitive reelection campaign for a second term in Congress. His $26 million war chest nearly ensures victory, and the only challenger to come close in terms of finances is Independent candidate Abraham Hirschfeld, with $702,000. The Official Republican challenger, Howard Mills, is far behind Schumer both in the polls and in his finances, with only $531,126 raised thus far.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Peace and Freedom/Independence Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 15 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,722 (ranks #3) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 41 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 10

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 40 52 American Research Group 9/14-16 4 41 52 Marist Poll 9/13-14 4

NORTH CAROLINA

Overview Electoral College votes: 15 Polls Close: 7:30pm EST Voting Age Population: 6,320,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 4,974,006; Registered Democrats: 2,388,679; Registered Republicans: 1,712,992; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 872,335 (National Journal September 15, 2003

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,911,262 1,631,163 56.0% 1,257,692 43.2% 22,407^ 0.7% 1996 2,515,807 1,225,938 48.7% 1,107,849 44.0% 182,020## 7.2% 1992 2,611,850 1,134,661 43.4% 1,114,042 43.0% 363,147# 14.0% 1988 2,134,370 1,237,258 58.0% 890,167 42.0% 6,945 0% 1984 2,175,361 1,346,481 61.9% 824,287 37.9% 4,593 0.2% 1980 1,855,833 915,018 49.3% 875,635 47.2% 65,180* 3.5% 1976 1,678,914 741,960 44.2% 927,365 55.2% 9,589 0.6% 1972 1,518,612 1,054,889 69.5% 438,705 28.9% 25,018 1.6% 1968 1,587,493 627,192 39.5% 464,113 29.2% 496,188** 31.3% 1964 1,424,983 624,844 43.8% 800,139 56.2% -- 0.0% 1960 1,368,556 655,420 47.9% 713,136 52.1% -- 0.0%

^ Green Party (Nader) not on the ballot: ##Perot 168,059 6.7%; #Perot 357,864 13.7%; *Anderson 52,800; **Wallace 496,188

Outlook North Carolina was supposed to be a battleground: a Southern swing state where the Kerry campaign had a chance. Kerry picked North Carolina’s senior senator, John Edwards, as his running mate on July 6 and the campaign immediately bought advertising in the state touting the new team. From July 6 through the middle of September, the Kerry-Edwards campaign stayed in the state, insisting that it could be competitive. Kerry himself visited four times, odd if the campaign thought it was a waste of time.

By the end of September, however, the reality of the state’s presidential politics set in: North Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since it went for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and it has not voted consistently Democratic since the Dixiecrat mentality died out in the 1960s. On September 23, the campaign pulled ads from the state that would have started October 5. Kerry has not visited since September 7.

The more interesting contest in the state is probably for Edwards’ Senate seat. Democratic Senator and vice presidential nominee John Edwards is vacating his seat. Businessman Erskine Bowles, who was chief of staff in the Clinton White House, is taking his second shot at the Senate and will face Republican Representative Richard Burr, who has spent 18 months raising money and building his name identification beyond his 5th District. The race is dominated by talk of trade and job creation. Both candidates have records as free-trade proponents but have adopted more protectionist views in recent years, as their state has hemorrhaged jobs in the textile and furniture industries. Though the state will probably go for Bush, the senate race could remain competitive until the end.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 4 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,143 (ranks #4) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 25 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 52 43 Mason-Dixon 9/26-28 4 53 41 Pub. Opinion Strategies (R) 9/26-27 4 NORTH DAKOTA

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 487,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 409,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 288,256 174,852 60.7% 95,284 33.1% 18,120^ 6.3% 1996 266,411 125,050 46.9% 106,905 40.1% 34,456## 12.9% 1992 308,133 136,244 44.2% 99,168 32.2% 72,721# 24.0% 1988 297,261 166,559 56.0% 127,739 43.0% 2,963 1% 1984 308,971 200,336 64.8% 104,429 33.8% 4,206 1.4% 1980 301,545 193,695 64.2% 79,189 26.3% 28,661* 9.5% 1976 297,188 153,470 51.6% 136,078 45.8% 7,640 2.6% 1972 280,514 174,109 62.1% 100,384 35.8% 6,021 2.1% 1968 247,882 138,669 55.9% 94,769 38.2% 14,444** 5.9% 1964 258,389 108,207 41.9% 149,784 58.0% 398 0.1% 1960 278,431 154,310 55.4% 123,963 44.5% 158 0.1%

^ Nader 9,486 3.3%; ##Perot 32,515 12.2%; #Perot 71,084 23.1%; *Anderson 23,640; **Wallace 14,244

Outlook

North Dakota, a state with a very small number of electoral votes, does not attract much attention from presidential hopefuls. Additionally, there seems to be little question as to which way this state will vote. North Dakota has voted Republican in every postwar presidential election, with the exception of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In 2000, George W. Bush won 61% of the vote.

The referendum on gay marriage to appear on the ballot this November may bring more Republicans to the polls (this is not to say that this bump is important for Bush to win North Dakota, however).

Despite this, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) will seek his third term, facing challenger Mike Liffrig (R). There is no evidence to suggest that Dorgan will have any difficulty maintaining his seat.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 703 (ranks #45) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 62 33 American Research Group 9/7-10 4

OHIO

Overview Electoral College votes: 20 Polls Close: 7:30pm EST Voting Age Population: 8,621,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 7,731,367 (AP 10/18); Registered Democrats: *see note below; Registered Republicans: *see note below; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: *see note below

Ohio voters do not register as Democrats or Republicans, they only affiliate with a party in order to vote for the primaries. This data is current as the March primary. One week before the election, state officials will provide new registrations numbers. For now, the media relations office estimates that there are 7.56 million registered voters as of Sept. 27 2004. These statistics were put together based on estimates of the 88 counties of Ohio. Of these counties, 60 used current voter registration information while the rest used their May numbers (which were based on primaries). Contact Person in Ohio: James Lee, Media Relations officer (614) 466-2585

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL VOTE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 4,701,998 2,350,363 50.0% 2,183,628 46.4% 168,007^ 3.6% 1996 4,534,434 1,859,883 41.0% 2,148,222 47.4% 526,329## 11.6% 1992 4,939,967 1,894,310 38.3% 1,984,942 40.2% 1,060,715# 22.0% 1988 4,393,699 2,416,549 55.0% 1,939,629 44.1% 37,521 0.9% 1984 4,547,619 2,678,560 58.9% 1,825,440 40.1% 43,619 1.0% 1980 4,283,603 2,206,545 51.5% 1,752,414 40.9% 324,644* 7.6% 1976 4,111,873 2,000,505 48.7% 2,011,621 48.9% 99,747 2.4% 1972 4,094,787 2,441,827 59.6% 1,558,889 38.1% 94,071 2.3% 1968 3,959,698 1,791,014 45.2% 1,700,586 42.9% 468,098**11.9% 1964 3,969,196 1,470,865 37.1% 2,498,331 62.9% -- -- 1960 4,161,859 2,217,611 53.3% 1,944,248 46.7% -- --

^ Nader 117,799 2.5%; 168,007##Perot 483,207 10.7%; #Perot 1,036,426 21.0%; *Anderson 254,472; **Wallace 467,495

Outlook Although Democrats have won the White House without winning the Buckeye State, Republicans have won the national election only when they won Ohio. And Ohio has correctly picked winners since 1964. In 2000, Ohio went for Bush over Gore by just 3% and both campaigns have made Ohio a priority on the level of Florida this year.

The campaigns have essentially turned the Ohio race into one of economics vs. culture. On the economic front, the Kerry campaign has fertile ground: the state has lost 237,400 jobs (5,604,000 in January 2001 to 5,366,600 in August 2004). And the manufacturing sector, where the state trails only California in number of jobs, was particularly hard hit, losing 173,000 jobs (998,000 in January 2001 to 825,000 in August 2004). Its unemployment rate is 6.3%, above the national average of 5.4% (August 2004). Perhaps most ominously, although most states have seen some recovery in the past year, Ohio’s numbers have moved consistently downward. And, jobs are being lost in places where they have built communities: in May 2004, Timken Co. announced it would close most of its ball-bearing factories in Canton, OH (located in the bellweather of Stark County). The Timken factories have been in Canton since 1901 and were the site of a Bush rally on economic opportunity in April 2003. Kerry has tirelessly targeted that issue, running several ads specific to Ohio’s economy and touting his new jobs proposal in the state.

Despite the bad economic picture, Bush has many of Ohio’s cultural aspects on his side. In areas that were never dominated by Ohio’s major union (CIO), smaller factories, rural Protestants and voters who care deeply about gun rights and abortion comprise the majority. That more conservative attitude holds in large voting areas like Columbus and Cincinnati

The amount of television money being spent in Ohio is enormous. A University of Wisconsin study of the television markets for both campaigns and their backers from September 24 to October 7 shows that three of the top ten markets in the country are in Ohio: Cleveland, Toledo, and Columbus. No other state has more than two (Florida) and most have only one in the combined top ten. The epicenter of this advertising war is Toledo, where about 14,273 commercials have aired Between March and late September, according to TNSI/Campaign Media Analysis Group. Those numbers make Toledo the most advertised-to market of any in the big battleground states. By mid-October, Ohio trailed only Florida in money spent: From September 30 through October 13, Bush- Cheney spent $5,923,455 to Kerry-Edwards’ $5,596,401.

Other groups are also involved: in one week in October alone, the Democratic 527 the Media Fund spent more than $600,000 on ads there (MF is focusing almost entirely on jobs/economy issues) and the DNC has spent millions since early August. Republican groups like Progress for America Voter Fund and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have also spent money in the state. The NRA is also running ads in heavy rotation attacking Kerry’s record on guns. By October 18, the Campaign Media Analysis Group reports that the campaigns and their allies have spent $72 million on political ads that have been shown 82,000 times since March.

Beyond the air war, Ohio is also the center of this year’s ground war. Both campaigns and several outside groups have spent months registering new voters and working on their turnout machines. ACT, for example, has nearly 600 paid staffers as of mid-October and that number is expected to grow. On the Republican side, the Bush-Cheney campaign says it is making 30,000 phone calls per night. All told, the efforts seem to be working: as of Oct. 4, the state recorded 791,579 new registrations, bringing the state’s total to approximately 7.7 million voters. The real question: will those new voters will turnout?

Another X factor: after several legal challenges, this year’s ballot will include a definition of marriage referendum which would amend Ohio’s constitution to define marriage as "Only a union between one man and one woman.” Like Michigan, Ohio’s amendment also goes further, and prevents the state from recognizing in any way “relationships of unmarried individuals.” Proponents of the Amendment say it would protect the traditional definition of marriage. Opponents say the second clause would take away rights granted by government employees, private companies and many couples, including heterosexual couples. Proponents say the law would not apply retroactively but only to new arrangements. Polling done by the Plain Dealer and the Columbus Dispatch show the measure passing by a 2 to 1 margin although opponents say those polls are inaccurate. If it does pass, both sides expect a legal challenge.

Regardless of passage, the referendum’s presence on the ballot may affect other races by motivating conservative voters and increasing turnout. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, so any extra conservative voters brought to the polls by the initiative may also help President Bush in a very tight election.

In 2000, Bush held a lead in the polls for the entire year, only to see it shrink in the days before Election Day. Gore, who pulled his ads in mid-October, went back on the air in early November and ran an impressive ground game on Election Day. Cleveland and the old CIO towns are still rather reliably Democratic. Most of the rural counties, including the old-Democrat “Butternut” southern ones, went for Bush. Franklin County, which includes Columbus, went for Gore but by only 4,163 votes. That was not enough to off- set Bush’s lead in the surrounding counties. Bush carried the bellwether county of Stark, which has voted for the winner in 9 of the last 10 elections. But since Bush took office, Stark County area has lost 26% of its factory jobs and Kerry has visited the area relentlessly. A final county to watch: Portage, which has voted for the winner in 7 o the last nine elections (and actually, in the past 37 presidential elections to 1856, Portage voters have sided with the victor in 34, missing with Wendell Willkie in 1944, Hubert Humphrey in '68 and Gore in 2000)

This year, ground zero is Columbus and its surrounding counties. As one Democratic activist opined, “It could well be that whoever wins the Columbus media market wins the state…and whoever wins Ohio, well...”

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 12 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 28 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards: **Will probably rank #2 in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,637 (ranks #9) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 36 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 6

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 47 48 American Research Group 10/4-6 4 51 44 Columbus Dispatch 9/21-10/1 2 OKLAHOMA

Overview Electoral College votes: 7 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,633,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 2,072,935; Registered Democrats: 1,099,458; Registered Republicans: 758,275; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 215,202

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL VOTE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,234,229 744,337 60.3% 474,276 38.4% 15,616^1.3% 1996 1,206,713 582,315 48.3% 488,105 40.4% 136,293## 11.3% 1992 1,390,359 592,929 43.0% 473,066 34.0% 324,364# 23.3% 1988 1,171,036 678,367 57.9% 483,423 41.3% 9,246 0.8% 1984 1,255,676 861,530 68.6% 385,080 30.7% 9,066 0.7% 1980 1,149,708 695,570 60.5% 402,026 35.0% 55,112* 4.5% 1976 1,092,251 545,708 50.0% 532,442 48.7% 14,101 1.3% 1972 1,029,900 759,025 73.7% 247,147 24.0% 23,728 2.3% 1968 943,086 449,697 47.7% 301,658 32.0% 191,731** 20.3% 1964 932,499 412,665 44.3% 519,834 55.7% -- 0.0% 1960 903,150 533,039 59.0% 370,111 41.0% -- 0.0%

^Green party (Nader) not on ballot; ##Perot 130,788 10.8%; #Perot 319,878 23.0%; *Anderson 38,284; **Wallace 191,731

Outlook Since the 1950s Oklahoma has been a solidly Republican state in presidential elections. In 2000 the state was 60% to 31% in favor of Bush over Gore and in 1996 it was 48% to 40% for Dole over Clinton. Many of the major blocs that traditionally back Democrats, like unions, are not major players in this state.

Oklahoma does, however, have a Democratic Governor and a Democratic majority in the State legislature. Both its Senators are currently Republican. But Senator Don Nickles (R) is retiring, leaving an open southern seat, which Democrats have their eye on as a possible pick up. Former Representative Tom Coburn (R) earned 61% of the vote in a contentious primary. Coburn faces Representative Brad Carson, who easily won the Democratic primary. Carson, 37, currently represents the 2nd Congressional district, the same district that Coburn represented before retiring in 2000. Oklahoma is a safe Republican bet for President Bush but not necessarily for the Senate. Carson’s status as the current Representative helps his name recognition; he is a member of the Cherokee Nation and a Rhodes scholar. He is a moderate Democrat who voted for Bush’s tax cuts, for the ban on partial-birth abortion and for drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refugee. Coburn, a Southern Baptist deacon, earned a conservative voting record during his three terms in Congress but he continually crossed party lines on health care issues and increases in veteran’s health care services. Coburn’s campaign has come across a few stumbling blocks so far including his remarks calling Oklahoma lawmakers “crapheads” as well a continued controversy over allegations that he sterilized a female patient without her consent during a life-saving operation in the 1980s. The race is currently a toss up.

There is also a referendum on the ballot in Oklahoma this year on a state constitutional amendment that would ban same sex marriages. Gay marriage supporters concede that they will probably lose in Oklahoma as well as in the 11 other states where the issue is being voted on.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,350 (ranks #23) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 18 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 58 28 Wilson Research (R) 10/1-3 4.4 62 29 Basswood Research (R) 9/27 4.4

OREGON

Overview Electoral College votes: 7 Polls Close: 11pm EST Voting Age Population: 2,710,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 1,949,592; Registered Democrats: 762,781; Registered Republicans: 697,346; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 489,465 (August 2004 Secretary of State Website) *The September figures will be in the Sec of State’s office as of October 15th and should be posted shortly thereafter.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,533,968 713,577 46.5% 720,342 47.0% 100,049^ 6.5% 1996 1,377,760 538,152 39.1% 649,641 47.2% 189,967## 13.8% 1992 1,462,643 475,757 33.0% 621,314 43.0% 365,572# 25.0% 1988 1,201,694 560,126 46.6% 616,206 51.3% 25,362 2.1% 1984 1,226,527 685,700 55.9% 536,479 43.7% 4,348 0.4% 1980 1,181,516 571,044 48.3% 456,890 38.7% 153,582* 13.0% 1976 1,029,876 492,120 47.8% 490,407 47.6% 47,349 4.6% 1972 927,946 486,686 52.4% 392,760 42.3% 48,500 5.3% 1968 819,622 408,433 49.8% 358,866 43.8% 52,323** 6.4% 1964 786,305 282,779 36.0% 501,017 63.7% 2,509 0.3% 1960 776,421 408,060 52.6% 367,402 47.3% 959 0.1%

^Nader 77,357 5.0%; ##Perot 121,221 8.8%; *Anderson 112,389; **Wallace 49,683

Outlook In many ways, Oregon is an unlikely swing state. The state has a history of progressive politics (citizens are legally allowed to grow their own marijuana for medicinal purposes) and the state has gone Democratic every year beginning in 1988. Despite that, Al Gore won the state by less than 1% (6,765 votes to be exact) and in mid-October, Oregon probably represents the best chance Bush-Cheney has for a West Coast pick-up.

Oregon is split, not along cultural vs. economic lines, but more by the role government should play. Oregonians have used the state government as an instrument for social change (i.e. legalizing physician assisted suicide) but also rejected too large a role for that government (i.e. rejecting a universal health care referendum in 2002). One example of the split in Oregon is the environment. Residents in the Democratic stronghold of Portland have enacted environmental protection laws, and efforts to limit growth there have been successful. In other areas, however, environmental protection has been seen as a threat to growth and has turned many voters Republican. In 2000, George W. Bush used this trend to his advantage, taking stand against a Clinton administration proposal to breach dams on the Snake River in Idaho, which would have reduced water supplies for farmers in eastern Oregon. Gore did not take a stand on the issue, allowing Bush to rack up big margins in the eastern portion of the state.

Economically, Oregon is in transition. In the 1990s, the high-tech boom fueled the state’s growth. The tech crash hit the state hard: unemployment reached 8.1% in February 2002. Since then, the economy has rebounded somewhat, from a low point of 1,554,300 in June 2003 to 1,598,700 in August 2004 (but still has not reached its January 2001 level of 1,615,200). In August 2004, the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at 7.4%, the third-highest of the country (Alaska was “first” at 7.6%, DC was second with 7.5%) and well above the national average of 5.4%.

Considering its environmental roots, it is not surprising that Ralph Nader represents a major factor in Oregon’s politics. In 2000, Nader received 77,357 votes (5%), Nader’s best showing in any state that year. This year, Nader failed to qualify for the ballot, but his supporters may turn up in numbers regardless and, given the slim margin from 2000, even 1/10th as much support would be enough to affect the outcome.

Two referenda are also increasing interest in the election. (1) The state already allows residents to grow their own marijuana for medicinal purposes, and Measure 33 would add a state-regulated non-profit medical marijuana dispensary system for patients too ill to grow their own. The initiative does not have major backers and is expected to fail. (2) On gay marriage, Constitutional Amendment 36, would define marriage as being only legally recognized as a union between man and woman. Of the 11 states with anti-gay marriage amendments on the ballot this November, Oregon is one of two states where passage is not virtually assured (the other in Michigan). Polling done in September by the Portland Tribune shows the measure passing with 57%, but that margin will probably shrink as both sides step up their activities.

Because it appears winnable for both sides, each campaign is actively working in the state. In mid-October, the Bush-Cheney campaign was in a “dogfight” with the Kerry campaign, running dozens of ads a day. From the period from October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney ran $383,987 worth of ads to $322,544 for Kerry-Edwards. President Bush visited Medford and Portland (after the third presidential debate) and Kerry has touched down five times there as of 10/11/04. As of mid-October, ACT had more than 100 paid staffers in the state and that number was expected to grow. Environmental groups like League of Conservation Voters are also in the state as is the pro-choice group NARAL, both vigorously opposing Bush.

The one activity you won’t see in Oregon on Election Day is actual voting: since 1998, Oregon has voted exclusively by mail.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 1 off day)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,673 (ranks #29) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 23 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 43 50 Research 2000 9/20-23 4 44 51 Research 2000 9/13-16 4

PENNSYLVANIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 21 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 9,535,00 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 7,634,577; Registered Democrats: 3,622,410; Registered Republicans: 3,179,303; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 832,863 (April 2004, Source: Pennsylvania Dept. of State Records) * New numbers will be available October 26th.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 4,913,119 2,281,127 46.4% 2,485,967 50.6% 146,025^ 3.0% 1996 4,506,118 1,801,169 40.0% 2,215,819 49.2% 489,130## 10.9% 1992 4,959,810 1,791,841 36.1% 2,239,164 45.1% 928,805# 19.0% 1988 4,536,251 2,300,087 50.7% 2,194,944 48.4% 41,220 0.9% 1984 4,844,903 2,584,323 53.3% 2,228,131 46.0% 32,449 0.7% 1980 4,561,501 2,261,872 49.6% 1,937,540 42.5% 362,089* 7.9% 1976 4,620,787 2,205,604 47.7% 2,328,677 50.4% 86,506 1.9% 1972 4,592,106 2,714,521 59.1% 1,796,951 39.1% 80,634 1.8% 1968 4,747,928 2,090,017 44.0% 2,259,405 47.6% 398,506** 8.4% 1964 4,822,690 1,673,657 34.7% 3,130,954 64.9% 18,079 0.4% 1960 5,006,541 2,439,956 48.7% 2,556,282 51.1% 10,303 0.2%

^Nader 103,392 2.1%; ##Perot 430,984 9.6%; *Anderson 292,921; **Wallace 378,582

Outlook Although Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the past three elections, it is a bellweather state. The Kerry campaign cannot afford to lose its 21 Electoral College votes and, hoping to pick them up, George Bush has once again heavily targeted the state.

Pennsylvania is essentially two states: (1) the northern counties that border New York and the central counties of Blair and Lancaster (Pennsylvania Dutch counties) tend to vote Republican while (2) the sides (where coal mines and steel factories formerly sat) and the metro areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh usually vote Democratic. In 2000, Bush beat up on Gore on the cultural issues of abortion and gun control, helping Bush appeal to the Catholics and gun owners in the middle of the state. But that was not enough to overcome Gore’s popularity among voters over the age of 65 and his large margins in Philadelphia. Hoping at least to neutralize the gun issue this year, Kerry has formed “Sportsmen for Kerry” and was photographed shooting skeet just outside Pittsburgh.

In appealing to voters, both candidates have spent huge resources in the state. Bush has visited the state 39 times (as of 10/11/04) since taking office, more than any other battleground state. Bush also appointed the state’s popular Governor Tom Ridge as head of the Department of Homeland Security. For his part, Kerry has visited the state 19 times in 2004 alone (10/11/04) and his campaign has spent millions of dollars on ads there. Kerry also benefits from his wife’s ties to the state: her late husband, John Heinz, was the state’s senator from 1976 until his death in 1991; and the family has tapped its immense fortune to fund millions worth of projects in state. Heinz Kerry also owns a farm outside Pittsburgh.

Beyond the cultural issues that both campaigns are discussing, the Kerry campaign has a potent issue that centers on the economy. Pennsylvania’s economy did well in the 1990s and many former Democrats voted Republican for the first time. Since January 2001, the state has lost 74,000 jobs (from 5,717,400 in January 2001 to 5,642,600 in August 2004). And the recovery has proceeded more slowly in Pennsylvania than in some states: in February 2004, it was down to 5,575,800 jobs and its unemployment rate remains above the national average at 5.6%. One analyst, PNC Financial Services Group, estimates Pennsylvania will add 25,000 jobs in 2004 but notes such a rise is only an increase of 0.4% and unevenly distributed.

Because of the heated competition in the state, the state is likely to rank third in total spent on television advertising. Several 527 organizations have made it a top target. ACT has more than 150 paid staffers in the state who have registered over 130,000 new voters as of mid-October and the DNC, the League of Conservation Voters and the Media Fund ($4.5 million) have spent millions on television advertising supporting Kerry. The Kerry campaign has also run ads featuring Governor Ed Rendell (Philadelphia) and Bob Casey Jr. (in Wilkes-Barre) and spent close to $4 million from September 30 to October 13. Bush-Cheney spent $5.3 million in the same period. On the Republican side, 527s including Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Americans for Coal Jobs (which target’s Kerry’s environmental record), and Americans United to Preserve Marriage (which is anti-gay marriage) are all active in the state.

In 2000, Nader received 103,392 votes, or 2% of the vote. This year, a series of legal proceedings surround Nader’s attempt to get on the ballot. Friends of Bush-Cheney are hoping he will be on the ballot whereas Kerry-Edwards supporters are working in the opposite direction. Several irregularities have emerged in petitions submitted on Nader’s behalf: 70% of his Philadelphia petitions were ruled invalid and a group of homeless people is suing the campaign, claiming they were not paid the money they were promised for collecting signatures. Despite a ruling that counties should not send out absentee ballots with Nader’s name on them, the third-largest county in the state, along with the city of Philadelphia, has already done so. This brings up a dilemma: what happens to ballots that vote for him?

In 2000, George Bush won among voters aged 30 to 44 and among White Protestants. Gore won those over 65 years old (60-38%) and went massively for Gore (67 to 29%). Catholics, who had voted for Democrats in the past, went for Gore only barely (50 to 46%). This year, the number of registered voters is close to 8 million, almost 300,000 more than in 2000. While mid-October polls show Kerry leading by a few points, with the number of new voters topping Gore’s margin of victory, both candidates have the opportunity to pick up enough votes to win.

The Nader Factor: As of October 13, Nader is not on the ballot but his campaign is appealing.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 14 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 9 off days)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards: **Will probably rank #3 in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,476 (ranks #12) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 54 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 46 48 *American Research Group 10/4-6 4 43 49 *Franklin & Marshall 9/30-10/4 4

RHODE ISLAND

Overview Electoral College votes: 4 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 832,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 508,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 409,047 130,555 31.9% 249,508 61.0% 28,984^ 7.8% 1996 390,284 104,683 26.8% 233,050 59.7% 52,551## 13.5% 1992 453,477 131,601 29.0% 213,299 47.0% 108,577#24.0% 1988 404,620 177,761 44% 225,123 56% 1,736 0% 1984 410,492 212,080 51.7% 197,106 48.0% 1,306 0.3% 1980 416,072 154,793 37.2% 198,342 47.7% 62,937* 15.1% 1976 411,170 181,249 44.1% 227,636 55.4% 2,285 0.5% 1972 415,808 220,383 53.0% 194,645 46.8% 780 0.2% 1968 385,000 122,359 31.8% 246,518 64.0% 16,123** 4.2% 1964 390,091 74,615 19.1% 315,463 80.9% 13 0.0% 1960 405,535 147,502 36.4% 258,032 63.6% -- 0.0%

^ Nader 25,052 6.1%; ##Perot 43,723 11.2%; #Perot 105,045 23.2%; *Anderson 59,819; **Wallace 15,678

Outlook Rhode Island almost always votes Democratic in presidential elections. It was, in fact, the most Democratic state in the 2000 election voting 61% to 32% in favor of Al Gore. In 1996, Rhode Island went 60% to 27% for Clinton over Dole. Part of the reason is that Rhode Island’s Catholic majority is heavily Democratic and, interestingly, pro-choice. Also, white Protestants in the state, who were at one time the Republican base, have tended to vote for Democrats for almost a generation now. Rhode island is considered a safe state for John Kerry. There are no other major ballot issues there this year.

The state does have a Republican Governor while its Senators are split with one Democrat and one Republican. Republicans, however, tend to be very moderate in Rhode Island. Both the state’s house members are Democrats and Democrats dominate the state’s legislature, 44 to 6 in the senate and 85 to 15 in the house. Even Rhode Island’s Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a Republican, said recently that he might not vote for President Bush in the Nov. 2 election.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 545 (ranks #46) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 30 58 American Research Group 9/11-13 4 SOUTH CAROLINA

Overview Electoral College votes: 8 Polls Close: 7pm EST Voting Age Population: 3,124,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 2,256,745. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 1,382,717 785,937 56.8% 565,561 40.9% 31,219^2.3% 1996 1,151,689 573,458 49.8% 506,283 44.0% 71,948## 6.2% 1992 1,202,527 577,507 48.0% 479,514 40.0% 145,506# 12.1% 1988 986,009 606,443 61.5% 370,554 37.6% 9,012 0.9% 1984 968,529 615,539 63.6% 344,459 35.6% 8,531 0.8% 1980 894,071 441,841 49.4% 430,385 48.1% 21,845* 2.5% 1976 802,583 346,149 43.1% 450,807 56.2% 5,627 0.7% 1972 673,960 477,044 70.8% 186,824 27.7% 10,092 1.5% 1968 666,978 254,062 38.1% 197,486 29.6% 215,430** 32.3% 1964 524,779 309,048 58.9% 215,723 41.1% 8 0.0% 1960 386,688 188,558 48.8% 198,129 51.2% 1 0.0%

^ Nader 20,200 1.5%; ##Perot 64,386 5.6%; #Perot 138,872 11.5%; *Anderson 14,153; **Wallace 215,430

Outlook South Carolina votes reliably Republican in presidential elections. It was the only state in the Deep South that voted for Richard Nixon over George Wallace in 1968 and has been among the top Republican states in 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential election years. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win South Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Despite being the birthplace of Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards, South Carolina is expected to be a safe win for Bush.

The state does, however, have a hot Senate race this year. Senator Ernest Hollings (D) is retiring after 38 years in the Senate. Three-term Representative Jim DeMint won the June 22nd Republican primary run off 59% to 41% over former Governor David Beasley. DeMint now faces Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D), a moderate Democrat who easily won her primary. DeMint, 53, is a strong supporter of free trade, which is an issue that continues to come up as Tenenbaum talks about job growth. Recently, DeMint had to apologize for his comments that unwed, pregnant women should not be teachers. South Carolina is a consistently Republican state but Tenenbaum is a strong moderate who could win middle of the road Republican votes. The race is currently a toss up.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate (in RI, the party is called the Independence Party).

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,132 (ranks #14) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 18 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 59 32 Basswood Research (R) 9/25-26 4.4 52 40 American Research Group 9/14-16 4

SOUTH DAKOTA

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 569,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 483,286; Registered Democrats: 185,261; Registered Republicans: 230,895; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 67,130 (Unofficial Oct. 1 data from Secretary of State Website, http://www.sdsos.gov/stats/ST201200.html)

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 316,269 190,700 60.3% 118,804 37.6% 6,765^2.1% 1996 323,826 150,543 46.5% 139,333 43.0% 33,950## 10.5% 1992 336,254 136,718 41.0% 124,888 37.1% 74,648# 22.2% 1988 312,991 165,415 52.8% 145,560 46.5% 2,016 0.7% 1984 317,867 200,267 63.0% 116,113 36.5% 1,487 0.5% 1980 327,703 198,343 60.5% 103,855 31.7% 25,505* 7.8% 1976 300,678 151,505 50.4% 147,068 48.9% 2,105 0.1% 1972 307,415 166,476 54.2% 139,945 45.5% 994 0.3% 1968 281,264 149,841 53.3% 118,023 42.0% 13,400** 4.7% 1964 293,118 130,108 44.4% 163,010 55.6% -- -- 1960 306,487 178,417 41.8% 128,070 58.2% -- --

^ Green party (Nader) not on ballot; ##Perot 31,250 9.7%; #Perot 73,295 21.8%; *Anderson 21,431; **Wallace 6,813,400

Outlook South Dakota has only gone for a Democratic presidential candidate four times since it gained statehood. The last time was in 1964. In 1972, favorite son George McGovern lost 45.5 to 54.2% to Richard Nixon. In 1996 when Bill Clinton lost by only a 3% margin to Bob Dole. In 2000, however, Al Gore was not popular and was badly beaten by George Bush 60% to 38%. Gore did, however, carry the Native American vote, a small but increasingly important voting bloc. South Dakota currently has a Republican governor and two Democratic senators and the state legislature has a Republican majority in both houses.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Daschle, 56, has spent a good portion of his life representing South Dakota in Congress; he was elected to the House in 1978 and the Senate in 1986. He has served as Minority leader since 1995, enjoying the title of Majority Leader from June 2001 until January of 2003. Republicans in South Dakota contend that Daschle’s leadership of a Democratic caucus that is more liberal than the state he represents has put him at odds with his electorate. Daschle will face former Representative John Thune (R) who lost his first Senate bid by 524 votes in 2002. Thune has made some changes in his campaign team since 2002 and has made an effort to reach out to Native American voters. Daschle has a long record and good name recognition but has taken some heat for using pictures of President Bush and him hugging in campaign advertisements. Something a little odd considering that the two are not fond of each other and politically wouldn’t touch the other with a ten-foot pole. In a state which President Bush won by 22 points in 2000, Thune has the party advantage, but he is up against an experienced candidate who is determined to fight. The race is currently a toss up. There are no other major ballot issues in South Dakota this year.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: none Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,428 (ranks #32) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 57 29 Zogby International 9/24-28 4.5 50 37 Mason-Dixon 9/20-22 3.5 TENNESSEE

Overview Electoral College votes: 11 Polls Close: 8pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,447,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 3,176,984 as of August 3, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,076,181 1,061,949 51.1% 981,720 47.3% 32,512^1.6% 1996 1,894,105 863,530 45.6% 909,146 48.0% 121,429## 6.4% 1992 1,982,638 841,300 42.4% 933,521 47.1% 207,817# 10.5% 1988 1,636,250 947,233 58% 679,794 42% 9,223 0.0% 1984 1,711,994 990,212 57.8% 711,714 41.6% 10,068 0.6% 1980 1,617,616 787,761 48.7% 783,051 48.4% 46,804* 2.9% 1976 1,476,345 633,969 42.9% 825,879 55.9% 16,497 1.2% 1972 1,201,182 813,147 67.7% 357,293 29.7% 30,742 2.6% 1968 1,248,617 472,592 37.8% 351,233 28.1% 424,792** 34.1% 1964 1,143,946 508,965 44.5% 634,947 55.5% 34 0.0% 1960 1,051,792 556,577 52.9% 481,453 45.8% 13,762 1.3%

^ Nader 19,781 0.9%; ##Perot 105,918 5.6%; #Perot 199,968 10.1%; *Anderson 35,991; **Wallace 424,792

Outlook Tennessee is expected to be a very safe state for President Bush. The state has been evenly divided at several times over the last half-century but the failure of native son Al Gore to win the state in 2000 as a representative of an incumbent party during a time of peace and prosperity is a clear sign that the state has become strongly Republican. Tennessee is probably going to be out of reach for Democratic presidential candidates for a while.

There are no other major ballot issues this year in Tennessee. The state has a Democratic governor and two Republican senators including Bill Frist, the Senate Majority Leader.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,066 (ranks #5) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 27 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 50 43 American Research Group 9/16-18 4 53 37 Mason-Dixon 9/11-14 4

TEXAS

Overview Electoral College votes: 34 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 15,878,000 (FEC July 2003) Registration: 11,612,761 as of March 14, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 6,407,637 3,799,639 59.3% 2,433,746 38.0% 174,252^ 2.7% 1996 5,611,644 2,736,167 48.8% 2,459,683 43.8% 415,794## 7.4% 1992 6,154,018 2,496,071 40.6% 2,281,815 37.1% 1,376,132# 22.4% 1988 5,427,410 3,036,829 56.0% 2,352,748 43.3% 37,833 0.7% 1984 5,397,571 3,433,428 63.6% 1,949,276 36.1% 14,867 0.3% 1980 4,541,636 2,510,705 55.3% 1,881,147 41.4% 149,784* 3.3% 1976 4,071,884 1,953,300 48.0% 2,082,319 51.1% 36,265 0.9% 1972 3,471,281 2,298,896 66.2% 1,154,289 33.3% 18,096 0.5% 1968 3,079,216 1,227,844 39.9% 1,266,804 41.1% 584,568** 19% 1964 2,626,811 958,566 36.5% 1,663,185 63.3% 5,060 0.2% 1960 2,311,084 1,121,310 48.5% 1,167,567 50.5% 22,207 1.0%

^ Nader 137,994 2.2%; ##Perot 378,537 6.7%; #Perot 1,354,781 22.0%; *Anderson 111,613; **Wallace 584,269

Outlook Texas and its 34 electoral votes are going to go to its native son, President Bush. In 2000, Bush won the state 59% to 38% over Al Gore. While Bush has not spent much time campaigning in the state, he does often return to spend time at his ranch in Crawford. He also spent election night in 2000 in Texas.

The state has a Republican governor and two Republican senators. Democrats outnumber Republicans, however, in the house, 17 to 15. There are no other major ballot issues this year in Texas.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 11 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly at Crawford Ranch) Kerry 3 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 8,716 (ranks #1) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 95 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 7

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 58 36 American Research Group 9/16-20 4 57 33 Scripps Howard 8/9-26 3 UTAH

Overview Electoral College votes: 5 Polls Close: 10pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,609,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: 1,118,041 as of June 27, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 770,754 515,096 66.8% 203,053 26.3% 52,605^6.8% 1996 665,629 361,911 54.4% 221,633 33.3% 82,085## 12.3% 1992 743,999 322,632 43.4% 183,429 24.7% 237,938# 32.0% 1988 647,008 428,442 66.2% 207,343 32% 11,223 1.8% 1984 629,656 469,105 74.5% 155,369 24.7% 5,182 0.8% 1980 604,222 439,687 72.8% 124,266 20.6% 40,269* 6.6% 1976 541,198 337,908 62.4% 182,110 33.6% 21,180 4.0% 1972 478,476 323,643 67.6% 126,284 26.4% 28,549 6.0% 1968 422,568 238,728 56.5% 156,665 37.1% 27,175** 6.4% 1964 401,413 181,785 45.3% 219,628 54.7% -- -- 1960 374,709 205,361 54.8% 169,248 45.2% 100 0.0%

^ Nader 35,850 4.7%; ##Perot 66,461 10.0%; #Perot 203,400 27.3%; *Anderson 30,284; **Wallace 26,906

Outlook Utah is certainly one of the most, if not THE most Republican state in the union. Every postwar presidential race in Utah has gone to the Republicans with the exception of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Harry S. Truman in 1948. In 2000, George W. Bush won 67% of the vote. It seems abundantly clear that Bush will win Utah in 2004.

An amusing tidbit from Utah: Republican Senator Orrin Hatch wants to change the Constitution so a person who is born in a foreign country, for example California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), can become president after living in the U.S. 20 years.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,432 (ranks #31) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 64 27 American Research Group 9/10-13 4 65 25 Dan Jones (R) 9/6-9 3 VERMONT

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 7pm EST Voting Age Population: 482,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: 408,421 as of September 12, 2000. Voters not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 294,308 119,775 40.7% 149,022 50.6% 25,511^ 8.7% 1996 258,449 80,352 31.1% 137,894 53.4% 40,203## 15.5% 1992 289,701 88,122 30.4% 133,592 46.1% 67,987# 23.5% 1988 243,328 124,331 51.1% 115,775 47.6% 3,222 1.3% 1984 234,561 135,865 57.9% 95,730 40.8% 2,966 1.3% 1980 213,299 94,628 44.4% 81,952 38.4% 36,719* 17.2% 1976 187,765 102,085 54.4% 80,954 43.1% 4,726 2.5% 1972 186,947 117,149 62.7% 68,174 36.5% 1,624 0.8% 1968 161,404 85,142 52.8% 70,255 43.5% 6,007** 3.7% 1964 163,089 54,942 33.7% 108,127 66.3% 20 0.0% 1960 167,324 98,131 58.6% 69,186 41.4% 7 0.0%

^Nader 20,374 6.9%; ##Perot 31,024 12.0%; #Perot 65,991 22.8%; *Anderson 31,761; **Wallace 5,104

Outlook Vermont has leaned mostly Democrat over the last 20 years. In both 1992 and 1996 it solidly backed Bill Clinton. In 2000 Al Gore won the state 51% to 41% over Bush. Vermont is not completely in the safe column for Kerry this year, but more than likely will go to the Democrat. Bush has tended to do well among voters there without college degrees, while in 2000 Gore carried those with college degrees 51% to 36% and won the postgraduate degree holders 62% to 29%.

Vermont is also home to Howard Dean, its former governor and major player in the 2004 Democratic primaries. Dean, a vocal liberal, surprised most analysts when he jumped out for a short time as the apparent Democratic front-runner. While Dean’s presidential hopes ultimately fizzled, his popularity in his home state could bode well for Kerry whom Dean now backs.

Vermont has a bit of a contrarian streak in it as it has one Democratic senator and a Republican Governor. Rep. Bernie Sanders is Vermont's Independent Representative to the U.S. House, the first Independent elected to Congress in 40 years. He has since been re-elected five times and is the longest-serving Independent in the history of the House of Representatives.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 327 (ranks #49) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 9 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 40 50 American Research Group 9/9-12 4 VIRGINIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 13 Polls Close: 7pm EST Voting Age Population: 5,588,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 4,101,639 (Oct. 1, 2004: Secretary of State Website). Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,739,447 1,437,490 52.5% 1,217,290 44.4% 84,667^ 3.1% 1996 2,416,642 1,138,350 47.1% 1,091,060 47.1% 187,232## 7.7% 1992 2,558,665 1,150,517 45.0% 1,038,650 41.0% 369,498# 14.4% 1988 2,191,609 1,309,162 59.7% 859,799 39.2% 22,648 1.1% 1984 2,146,635 1,337,078 62.3% 796,250 37.1% 13,037 0.6% 1980 1,866,032 989,609 53.0% 752,174 40.3% 124,249* 6.7% 1976 1,697,094 836,554 49.3% 813,896 48.0% 46,644 2.7% 1972 1,457,019 988,493 67.8% 438,887 30.1% 29,639 2.1% 1968 1,361,491 590,319 43.4% 442,387 32.5% 328,785** 24.1% 1964 1,042,267 481,334 46.2% 558,038 53.5% 2,895 0.3% 1960 771,449 404,521 52.4% 362,327 47.0% 4,601 0.6%

^ Nader 59,398 2.2%; ##Perot 159,861 6.6%; #Perot 348,639 13.6%; *Anderson 95,418; **Wallace 321,833

Outlook Virginia may be the state where the Kerry campaign tried hardest to make a campaign out of one that essentially did not exist. The last Democrat to carry the state was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Before him, it was Harry Truman in 1948. President Bush carried the state 52% to 44% and is virtually certain to repeat that feat this year.

Despite those odds, the Kerry campaign did make an effort in the state. The campaign had about 30 staff members throughout the state at one point and ran nearly $2 million worth of ads. Kerry was popular in the Democratic areas of Northern Virginia, and he hoped to appeal to the state’s large number of military veterans. Sen. John Edwards also stumped for the team in rural areas.

In early October, however, the Kerry campaign bowed to political reality and sent its top staffers to other states. Although some of the campaign offices remain open, Kerry has essentially conceded the state and every poll so far has shown Kerry behind.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 6 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly Arlington national Cemetery or bike rides at Quantico) Kerry 8 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,811 (ranks #21) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 28 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 49 43 Mason-Dixon 9/24-27 4 49 43 American Research Group 9/12-14 4

WASHINGTON

Overview Electoral College votes: 11 Polls Close: 11pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,635,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: Secretary of state predicts that by November 2, the total number or registered voters will be 3.4 million. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL VOTE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,487,433 1,108,864 44.6% 1,247,652 50.2% 130,917^ 5.3% 1996 2,253,837 840,712 37.3% 1,123,323 49.8% 289,802## 12.9% 1992 2,288,230 731,234 32.0% 993,037 43.4% 563,959# 24.6% 1988 1,865,253 903,835 48.0% 933,516 50% 27,902 2.0% 1984 1,883,910 1,051,670 55.8% 807,352 42.9% 24,888 1.3% 1980 1,742,394 865,244 49.7% 650,193 37.3% 226,957* 13.0% 1976 1,555,534 777,732 50.0% 717,323 46.1% 60,479 3.9% 1972 1,470,847 837,135 56.9% 568,334 38.6% 65,378 4.5% 1968 1,304,281 588,510 45.1% 616,037 47.2% 99,734** 7.7% 1964 1,258,556 470,366 37.4% 779,881 62.0% 8,309 0.6% 1960 1,241,572 629,273 50.7% 599,298 48.3% 13,001 1.0%

^ Nader 103,002 4.1%; ##Perot 201,003 8.9%; #Perot 541,780 23.7%; *Anderson 185,073; **Wallace 96,990

Outlook Like the Kerry effort in Arizona, the Bush team went after Washington knowing it was an uphill battle. Washington went for Clinton twice in the 1990s and for Gore in 2000. With its progressive politics and commitment to the environment, Washington is also a more natural fit for Kerry.

So why did Bush spend resources there in 2004? In the past, voters in Washington have split on social issues: approving more lenient penalties for marijuana use but rejecting mandatory trigger locks for guns. Demographically, Bush also made solid in-roads in 2000, carrying eastern Washington by a large margin and staying almost even in the west. Gore won only by commanding 60% of the vote in King County, which includes Seattle located, and claiming 62% of union votes. As in Oregon, many blue-collar lumber voters went for Bush on economic/environmental issues rather than for Democrats as in most years past.

Hoping to take advantage of those numbers from 2000, the Bush-Cheney campaign devoted major resources to the state. Through September, the campaign spent more than $3.5 million in the state, running more than 20 ads a day in the Spokane and Seattle markets alone. The Kerry campaign responded, running ads to the tune of $3.3 million and sending Kerry for five visits through the end of August. Despite the Bush efforts, polls consistently showed Kerry leading in the sate by 5 to 7 points.

In early October, the Bush campaign apparently acknowledged the political situation and sharply cut back on its advertising. From October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney campaign spent $55,2346 compared to Kerry-Edwards’ $212,714 in the same period. The National Republican Senatorial Committee also withdrew $1 million worth of scheduled ads on behalf of U.S. Senate candidate George Nethercutt, suggesting the Republican party is no longer concentrating on the state.

Although the Bush-Cheney campaign denies it is conceding the state, the advertising buys suggest that is the case. In addition, Bush has not visited the state since August. This year Washington, rebounding from the tech bust, will almost certainly go for John Kerry.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,825 (ranks #7) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 23 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 44 49 Strategic Vision (R) 10/4-6 3 45 47 Moore Information (R) 10/3-4 4

WEST VIRGINIA

Overview Electoral College votes: 5 Polls Close: 7:30pm EST Voting Age Population: 1,419,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters: Total: 1,103,264; Registered Democrats: 655,646; Registered Republicans: 321,586; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 126,032 (Primaries, May 11 2004 from Sec. of State Website) * New numbers will be available in late October

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 648,124 336,475 51.9% 295,497 45.6% 16,152^ 2.5% 1996 636,459 233,946 36.8% 327,812 51.5% 74,701## 11.7% 1992 683,762 241,974 35.4% 331,001 48.4% 110,787# 16.2% 1988 653,311 310,065 47.5% 341,016 52.2% 2,230 0.3% 1984 735,742 405,483 55.1% 328,125 44.6% 2,134 0.3% 1980 737,715 334,206 45.3% 367,462 49.8% 36,047* 4.9% 1976 750,964 314,760 41.9% 435,914 58.0% 290 0.1% 1972 762,399 484,964 63.6% 277,435 36.4% -- -- 1968 754,206 307,555 40.8% 374,091 49.6% 72,560** 9.6% 1964 792,040 253,953 32.1% 538,087 67.9% -- -- 1960 837,781 395,995 47.3% 441,786 52.7% -- --

^ Nader 10,680 1.6%; ##Perot 71,639 11.3%; #Perot 108,829 15.9%; *Anderson 31,691; ** Wallace 72,560

Outlook In 2000, the Bush campaign surprised Al Gore by carrying West Virginia, which has traditionally been fairly safe Democratic territory. Focusing on cultural conservatives, however, the Bush campaign spent millions in the state, visited often and essentially had the state wrapped up before the Gore campaign even noticed things were close. Determined to let the same thing happen in 2004, the Kerry-Edwards campaign is paying close attention to the state.

In 2000, Bush took advantage of those who felt new environmental protection laws would hamper the state’s coal production. Gore was caught between the Clinton administration rules and the West Virginia congressional delegation (all Democrats) which opposed it. Bush also berated Gore for his support for gun control and abortion rights.

This year, Kerry has tried assiduously to avoid those past mistakes. The campaign has courted West Virginia’s popular senior senator, Robert Byrd, and he is making more efforts on Kerry’s behalf than he did for Gore, including appearing in television ads for the campaign. Kerry has touted his love of hunting; he has been photographed extensively shooting skeet. His campaign is also handing out fliers stating, “John Kerry was proud to receive a union-made Remington shotgun from United Mine Workers President Cecil Roberts.” Despite his environmental record, Kerry has tried at least to neutralize the coal issue and is touting his endorsement from the United Mine Workers. Kerry has also poured money into the state, spending $200K a week on ads there and making West Virginia one of the campaign’s top ten advertising stops.

Hoping to undo Kerry’s efforts, Bush-Cheney has also targeted the state, spending time and approximately equal ad dollars there. 527s are entering the fray on his behalf. Americans for Coal Jobs Voter Fund (ACJ) is running ads in the state (and in Ohio and Pennsylvania) criticizing Kerry for his record on coal and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads have run heavily in the state. The NRA is also running ads in heavy rotation attacking Kerry’s record on guns. The campaign has also turned nasty, with the Republican National Committee distributing leaflets in the state warning voters that, if elected, liberals will ban the Bible. On the other side, MoveOn.org spent $77,680 in August alone on ads that encouraged voters to fire President Bush.

As in 2000, the main issues in the state appear to be the economy and conservative values. The only addition this year is the war in Iraq: many West Virginians express major reservations about the US’s actions there and that may help Kerry. The main cultural issue may be gay marriage, which Republicans, right-leaning 527s and many churches have successfully hung around Kerry’s neck. A group called Americans United to Preserve Marriage led by Gary Bauer is running $500,000 worth of ads saying Kerry opposed efforts to stop gay marriage in Massachusetts. On the economic front, after losing jobs during the recession, the state is back on track, essentially where it stood in January 2001 (735,500 in January 2001 to 734,300 in August 2004) but Kerry may have luck appealing to those whose jobs have not returned.

In the past, Democrats have held the southern counties while Republicans have done better in the north. The main bellweathers are Harrison county in the center, Summers in the South (where Bush won by five votes in 2000) and those in the eastern panhandle, such as Berkeley county. Gore lost West Virginia by 40,000 votes in 2000 and news reports indicate that the state has registered roughly 16,000 new Democrats and 8,000 new Republicans this year. As of October 14, the Kerry campaign pulled its ads and cancelled a visit. Despite this, the campaign says it will keep watching the state and will make a final determination about advertising in one week.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as in Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 9 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,225 (ranks #39) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 51 45 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/17-20 5 46 46 American Research Group 9/14-16 4 WISCONSIN

Overview Electoral College votes: 10 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 4,139,000 (FEC July 2003). Voters do not register by party. * Registration is allowed on Election Day.

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 2,598,607 1,237,279 47.6% 1,242,987 47.8% 118,341^ 4.6% 1996 2,196,169 845,029 38.5% 1,071,971 48.8% 279,169## 12.7% 1992 2,531,114 930,855 36.8% 1,041,066 41.1% 559,193# 22.1% 1988 2,191,608 1,047,499 48% 1,126,794 51.4% 17,315 0.6% 1984 2,211,689 1,198,584 54.2% 995,740 45.0% 17,365 0.8% 1980 2,273,221 1,088,845 47.9% 981,584 43.2% 202,792* 8.9% 1976 2,104,175 1,004,987 47.8% 1,040,232 49.4% 58,956 2.8% 1972 1,852,890 989,430 53.4% 810,174 43.7% 53,286 2.9% 1968 1,691,538 809,997 47.9% 748,804 44.3% 132,737** 7.8% 1964 1,691,815 638,495 37.7% 1,050,424 62.1% 2,896 0.2% 1960 1,729,082 895,175 51.8% 830,805 48.0% 3,102 0.2%

^ Nader 94,070 3.6%; ##Perot 227,339 10.4%; #Perot 544,479 21.5%; *Anderson 160,657; ** Wallace 127,835

Outlook Wisconsin has two very different political impulses. On one hand, the state has a history of progressive public policy, the heritage of Robert LaFollette and a strong social safety net, which pushes it toward the Democrat camp today. On the other hand, it has strong German background, the heritage of Joseph McCarthy and a strong culture of small business, which tend toward Republicans today. In 1986, the state elected a reformist Republican as Governor but also selected two fairly liberal Democratic Senators in the 1990s. Those competing urges help explain why Wisconsin went for Al Gore by only 5,708 votes, 0.2% of the vote in 2000.

Because it looks winnable, both sides have concentrated on the state. Kerry has visited the state 19 times, similar to his trips to another Democratic must-win: Pennsylvania. Bush has visited nine times, similar to his trips to other top targets like Michigan and West Virginia. Bush also appointed popular Gov. Tommy Thompson, who led the popular Welfare to Work (“W-2”) reform initiative in the state, as his Secretary of Health and Human Services. The two main issues are the economy and the war in Iraq.

Economically, neither side has much traction: the state lost about 50,000 jobs during Bush’s term but it has since regained them and the unemployment rate, at 4.8%, is below the national average. On the other hand, the gains have been uneven. The state has lost 67,500 manufacturing jobs (584,100 in January 2001 to 516,600 in August 2004) and dairy farms, once the backbone of the state’s economy, have also not rebounded strongly. Hoping to exploit that fact, the Democratic National Committee began running ads on that subject in the state on October 7.

In terms of the war in Iraq, voters in Wisconsin have an isolationist streak stretching back to the days of LaFollette. The war has proved unpopular but, as in other states, Kerry has not benefited from that.

Wisconsin’s prominence, like Florida’s, is illustrated by the amount of advertising dollars spent there. In one week in mid-October, Bush spent $$816,439 to Kerry’s $1,014,825, and from September 3 through October 3, the campaigns spent more than $3 million dollars in the state. And that does not include outside groups, who are also active. Republican 527 Progress for America Voter Fund spent $77,000 to run ads in Wisconsin and Iowa in one day (September 14). That same day, the Democratic-leaning Service Employees International Union spent $29,000 in the state. TNS Media/CMAG ranked the state fifth in television advertising but, to underline Wisconsin’s growing importance, research from the Center for Public Integrity shows that outside groups spent more in the state between June and September than anywhere else.

Wisconsin’s presidential vote may also be affected by the competitive senate race between Democratic Senator Russ Feingold and Republican businessman Tim Michels. Republicans had hoped to field either Health and Human Service Services Secretary Tommy Thompson or Rep. Paul Ryan, but both rejected overtures. Michels, using his own fortune, has been surprisingly successful. Although the race will likely go Feingold’s way, Michel’s focus on the Patriot Act (he supports it, Feingold cast the lone vote against it) has kept the spotlight on the war on terror, which may or may not hurt Kerry.

And, finally, a notable Kerry gaffe: Speaking in August, Kerry mispronounced the name of Lambeau Field, the home of the Green Bay Packers, calling it Lambert Field (the name of the old St. Louis airport). The Bush-Cheney campaign has used this as evidence of Kerry’s aloofness to good effect in the state.

In 2000, unlike most states where Bush did not do well in the cities, Bush carried metro Milwaukee and its suburban counties. Gore, also bucking national trends, carried some traditional Republican counties and rural areas near eastern Iowa. The Republican stronghold is in the far north and the eastern half of the state. Western Wisconsin, where Madison is located, is the Democratic base. To keep the state, Kerry must (a) win another large majority in Madison and (b) run even in Milwaukee. To regain the state, Bush must (a) to run slightly better in Milwaukee’s suburbs and (b) turn out his base voters.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004 Bush 6 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards: **Will probably rank #5 in total TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,642 (ranks #30) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 21 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 49 46 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3-5 4 47 45 Moore Information (R) 10/5-6 4 44 48 Lake Snell Perry (D) 10/3-5 4

WYOMING

Overview Electoral College votes: 3 Polls Close: 9pm EST Voting Age Population: 380,000 (FEC July 2003) Registered Voters Total: 206,039; Registered Democrats: 57,062; Registered Republicans: 129,606; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 19,371

Past Presidential Election Results TOTAL REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC OTHER 2000 218,351 147,947 67.8% 60,481 27.7% 5,298^2.4% 1996 211,571 105,388 49.8% 77,934 36.8% 28,249## 13.4% 1992 200,598 79,347 40.0% 68,160 34.0% 53,091# 26.5% 1988 176,551 106,867 60.5% 67,113 38% 2,571 1.5% 1984 188,968 133,241 70.5% 53,370 28.3% 2,357 1.2% 1980 176,713 110,700 62.6% 49,427 28.0% 16,586* 9.4% 1976 156,343 92,717 59.3% 62,239 39.8% 1,387 0.9% 1972 145,570 100,464 69.0% 44,358 30.5% 748 0.5% 1968 127,205 70,927 55.8% 45,173 35.5% 11,105** 8.7% 1964 142,716 61,998 43.4% 80,718 56.6% -- -- 1960 140,782 77,451 55.0% 63,331 45.0% -- --

^ Nader 4,625 2.1%; ##Perot 25,928 12.3%; #Perot 51,263 25.6%; *Anderson 12,072; **Wallace 11,105

Outlook Wyoming is one of the least likely states to provide a serious contest in the presidential election. It is very Republican, very remote, and has only 3 electoral votes. It is also home to Vice President Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush overwhelmingly won the state 69% to 28%.

Wyoming does have a Democratic governor as well as two Republican senators. There are no other major issues on the ballot this year in the state.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Activity in the State Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising Bush-Cheney: Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 388 (ranks #47) Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4 Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls BUSH KERRY POLL DATE MoE 65 29 American Research Group 9/9-11 4