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Phosphorus Scarcity Science of the Total Environment 490 (2014) 694–707 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv On the history of a reoccurring concept: Phosphorus scarcity Andrea E. Ulrich a,b,⁎, Emmanuel Frossard b a Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Natural and Social Science Interface, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstrasse 22, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland b Institute for Agricultural Sciences, Plant Nutrition, ETH Zurich, Eschikon 33, 8315 Lindau, Switzerland HIGHLIGHTS • A historicizing account on overlooked phosphorus adequacy discourses is given. • Evidence suggests that phosphate rock depletion concerns are not new. • Depletion anxiety was always refuted by means of new reserve data. • Many of the proposed policies or actions were never carried out. • Historic literacy and knowledge anchoring appear essential in future planning. article info abstract Article history: Despite evidence against imminent global phosphate rock depletion, phosphorus (P) scarcity scenarios and the Received 9 January 2014 subsequent consequences for global food security continue to be a matter of controversy. We provide a histori- Received in revised form 14 April 2014 cizing account to evaluate the degree and relevance of past human experiences with P scarcity. Using more Accepted 14 April 2014 than 80 literature sources, we trace the origin of the P scarcity concept and the first accounts of concerns; we re- Available online xxxx port on three cases of scarcity discourse in the U.S. and revisit the concept of future resources. In addition, we Editor: Charlotte Poschenrieder present past evaluations of phosphate rock reserves and lifetime estimates for the world, the U.S., Morocco, and the Western Sahara, as well as past attempts to model phosphorus supply or collect information on phos- Keywords: phate rock. Our results show that current concerns have a long legacy and knowledge base to draw from and Peak phosphorus that promulgating the notion of depletion is inconsistent with past findings. We find that past depletion concerns Food security were refuted by means of new resource appraisals, indicating that the supply was substantially larger than pre- Phosphorus sustainability viously thought. Moreover, recommendations for national P conservation policies and other practices seem to Resources scarcity have found little implementation. We demonstrate the merit of historic literacy for social learning and the weak- Environmental history ness of the current P sustainability debate because it does not include this past knowledge. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction reached and declines thereafter, likely having profound effects for global food security. Accordingly, a growing number of researchers, initiatives, The sustainable use of phosphorus (P) is one of the major challenges and governmental agencies on the national and international levels of the 21st century (Sharpley and Tunney, 2000). P is essential for life, have become concerned with efforts towards the more efficient and ef- and for global agricultural production. Since around 2007 (Déry and fective use of P, reducing waste and losses along the P lifecycle, and Anderson, 2007), following the world financial crisis and the commod- recycling, often by means of improved cooperation and communication ities boom, concerns regarding P adequacy have emerged. One study on between key stakeholders from science and practice (ESPC, 2013; GPRI, the imminent depletion scenarios of phosphate rock (PR), the largest 2009; Scholz et al., 2013; Syers et al., 2011; Ulrich et al., 2013). source of P for chemical fertilizers, drew particular attention: Cordell Several studies have approached the question of whether depletion et al. (2009) postulated that “peak P” would occur around 2035. Such anxiety is warranted from dynamic modeling (Koppelaar and Weikard, a peak, similar to “peak oil” (Hubbert, 1949), is generally understood 2013; Scholz and Wellmer, 2013; Vaccari and Strigul, 2011; Van Vuuren to be the point in time when the maximum global PR production is et al., 2010) and data accounting perspectives (Jasinski, 2013; Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). Their results suggest that global PR production will not peak within the next two decades. However, while the chal- ⁎ Corresponding author at: ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), lenge of long-term P adequacy appears to be dominated by controver- Natural and Social Science Interface, CHN J. 70.1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 44 632 93 18; fax: +41 44 632 10 29. sies regarding resource cornucopia vs. scarcity (Cordell and White, E-mail address: [email protected] (A.E. Ulrich). 2011b), the larger systemic issues include questions regarding http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.04.050 0048-9697/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. A.E. Ulrich, E. Frossard / Science of the Total Environment 490 (2014) 694–707 695 geopolitics and supply independence (Cooper et al., 2011; de Ridder Scanned information depositories included the ISI Web of Knowledge, et al., 2012), excess P in the environment (Rabalais et al., 2010; Google, Google Scholar, digital newspaper archives such as the New Schindler, 2012), regional food insecurity due to phosphate-deficient York Times or U.S. Geological Survey archives, and online libraries. soils (Bouwman et al., 2010; MacDonald et al., 2011; Runge-Metzger, This type of search largely led to more recent publications. We therefore 1995; Sattari et al., 2012), and global distributive justice, referring to backward tracked and cross-checked the literature cited in the initial ac- economic and socio-technical imbalances in P accessibility (Ekardt counts or followed cues indicating past scarcity debates. This search was et al., 2010; Sutton et al., 2013; Vitousek et al., 2009; Weikard and tedious because literature sources were widely scattered and often not Seyhan, 2009). This makes P a global change and sustainability science easily identifiable or available. The identified accounts were directly re- problem. lated to our proposition, provided background information, or included This paper deals with two questions: i) are P scarcity concerns new evident links to the problem field, such as resource management dis- and ii) can useful insights be gained from evaluating past research on courses in general. We obtained historic data from both high-quality this topic and discourse? We approach these questions by providing a primary and secondary literature, surveying more than 80 sources. Pub- P-scarcity-historicizing account spanning from 1800 to 2002, present- lications included committee hearings, books, reports, newspaper arti- ing a synthesis of existing historic knowledge and past experiences of cles, and scientificarticles. human exposure to the problem, including societal action. We argue that this complements and reinforces history as a discipline for global 2.2. Time scope, analysis, and cases environmental change and sustainability research. While historical contextualization and efforts to elicit lessons from The analysis covers the period from 1800 to 2002. This time scope aspects of nutrient use, soil past, and biogeochemical cycle alterations was chosen because it marked, on one side, the recognition of the essen- have been undertaken (Ashley et al., 2011; Cordell et al., 2009; tial role of P in life on earth and the first scarcity concerns from the Emsley, 2000; Filippelli, 2008; McNeill and Winiwarter, 2004), little 1850s onward. On the other side, it marked the beginning of revived in- has been revealed about the social experience with depletion anxiety terest in the topic of sustainable P management. Information to be in- and possible lessons. Table 1 illustrates that the majority of modern cluded was chosen for the purpose of illustration and as a point of phosphorus sustainability publications do not or not adequately include interest in today's discussion. From the relevant past literature identi- past debates or estimate accounts. Based on a thorough analysis of past fied, we extracted vastly reoccurring information on reserve estimates, findings, only Van Kauwenbergh (2010) indicates substantial unrecog- longevity predictions, major arguments about data reliability, and first nized reserves/resources and the possibility of discovering and develop- global data compiling and supply modeling efforts with the ascent of in- ing more PR reserves.1 Instead, the emphasis rests on the originality of formation technology. In addition, three past U.S. accounts of phosphate the P challenge (see, e.g., Ashley et al., 2011: 737). rock depletion concerns were analyzed: first, the joint committee inves- This study addresses this knowledge gap. As Santayana (1905: 284), tigation on the adequacy and use of the phosphate resources of the U.S. a Harvard philosopher, once said, “Those who cannot remember the in 1938 under President Roosevelt; second, the controversy arising from past are condemned to repeat it.” This might suggest that the failure projections of the Institute of Ecology (1972: 42), which stated that to integrate historic work poses the following risks: (i) not using time “known potential supplies of phosphorus, a non-renewable resource es- and resources effectively due to not considering the findings of the sential to life, will be exhausted before the end of the 21st century [and past; (ii) undermining scientific credibility by supporting the mislead- that] without phosphate fertilizers, the planet can support
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