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Managing Phosphorus in the UK Water Industry to Increase National Managing phosphorus in the UK water industry to increase national resource security James Cooper A thesis submitted to The University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Civil Engineering College of Engineering and Physical Sciences The University of Birmingham October 2014 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. ABSTRACT Phosphorus is an essential, irreplaceable component of the food production system. Most of the phosphorus applied in agriculture comes from phosphate rock, a finite, non-renewable resource. Therefore, there are growing concerns about global phosphorus scarcity and the sustainability of modern agriculture. The aim of this research was to determine if the UK water industry will be required to increase the amount of phosphorus that is recycled from wastewater. This research involved conducting an extensive literature review and gathering data from secondary sources, which was then analysed to address the guiding research questions. This analysis suggests that phosphorus recycling could be increased, but changes to existing legislation and infrastructure will be required. The substance flow analysis revealed that the water industry is a key stakeholder in UK phosphorus management, and the intensifying geopolitical risk to security of supply suggests that increased phosphorus recycling will be required in the near future. Finally, a Phosphorus Recycling Obligation scheme was developed as a means of optimising investments and achieving recycling targets. It is concluded that the UK water industry will be required to increase the amount of phosphorus that is recycled from wastewater in the near future in order to address national resource security. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Completing this PhD has often felt like a solitary journey. However, looking back over the last four years, I realise that there are so many people that I have to be thankful to. Without the support of these people, this journey would have been much more difficult, much less enjoyable, and producing this thesis would not have been possible. Firstly, I’d like to express my gratitude to all of my industrial sponsors and especially to the representatives from UK water companies who travelled many miles to guide my PhD during the steering group meetings. Listening to your discussions and receiving your advice gave me the inspiration and insight I needed complete this work. Also, thank you to the employees from all 12 UK water companies who provided me with the data I required to complete the analyses. I would also like to thank my amazing family for their support over the last four years. In particular, thanks to my Mum and Dad for spending hours listening to me talk about phosphorus, my identical twin brother, Ben, for supplying me with a constant barrage of motivational quotes and for being adamant that PHD is an acronym for Pretty Happy Days, and to my dog, Alfie, who has no idea why I was sitting at my desk for hours each day or even that I’ve included him in my Acknowledgements, but deserves a special mention nonetheless for helping through some really challenging times. I’m also thankful for the friends that have helped me along this journey. This includes those that have completed PhDs themselves and gave me some great advice on how to complete my own, and those that I have lived with over the years who provided me with so many great times over the past four years. In particular, I’d like to thank Chris Timmis for offering me a place to stay when I had nowhere else to live, for spending hours listening to my concerns about my PhD, and for constantly reminding me to focus on the positive aspects of my life. Finally, I’d like to thank Dr Cynthia Carliell-Marquet for putting together this PhD project in the first place, and for being an excellent supervisor. Her enthusiasm for this research was contagious, and this encouraged me to persevere during difficult times and finish this work. Thank you. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................... 10 2 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Aim ............................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 12 3 HYPOTHESES ..................................................................................................................... 13 4 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 14 4.1 The UK Water Industry .............................................................................................. 14 4.1.1 Structure of the industry.................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 Important legislation.......................................................................................... 20 4.1.3 Phosphorus removal .......................................................................................... 27 4.1.4 Sewage sludge .................................................................................................... 32 4.1.5 Phosphorus recovery ......................................................................................... 37 4.1.6 Phosphorus flows in the UK water industry ...................................................... 61 4.1.7 Knowledge gaps ................................................................................................. 63 4.2 Quantifying phosphorus flows in the UK .................................................................. 64 4.2.1 National-scale substance flow analyses for phosphorus ................................... 65 4.2.2 Sub-system scale substance flow analyses for phosphorus in the UK .............. 71 4.2.3 Knowledge gaps ................................................................................................. 75 4.3 Drivers of phosphorus scarcity .................................................................................. 76 4.3.1 The size of phosphate rock reserves and resources .......................................... 77 4.3.2 The distribution of phosphate rock reserves ..................................................... 84 4.3.3 Phosphate rock production ............................................................................... 89 4.3.4 Reserve-to-production ratio .............................................................................. 95 4.3.5 Future demand and production......................................................................... 98 4.3.6 Peak phosphorus .............................................................................................. 101 4.3.7 Price of phosphate rock ................................................................................... 107 4.3.8 Analysis of key drivers ...................................................................................... 110 4.3.9 Knowledge gaps ............................................................................................... 112 4.4 Resource management strategies........................................................................... 113 4.4.1 Managing oil resources .................................................................................... 114 4.4.2 Phosphorus management in other countries .................................................. 119 4.4.3 Setting a target................................................................................................. 120 4.4.4 Knowledge gaps ............................................................................................... 123 5 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 125 5.1 Evaluating the current position of the UK water industry ...................................... 125 5.1.1 Determining the potential for phosphorus recovery at UK wastewater treatment works ............................................................................................................. 127 5.2 Developing a substance flow analysis of phosphorus in the UK ............................. 129 5.2.1 Defining the system boundaries ...................................................................... 129 5.2.2 Obtaining data ................................................................................................. 130 5.2.3 Presenting the results ...................................................................................... 131 5.2.4 Reducing and estimating uncertainty .............................................................. 132 5.3 Assessing a key driver
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