Paper prepared for SENSE Earth Systems Governance, Amsterdam, 24th-31st August, 2008 The Story of Phosphorus: missing global governance of a critical resource Preliminary findings from 2 years of doctoral research Dana Cordell PhD Candidate
[email protected] Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Australia and Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, Sweden Abstract Phosphorus is a critical resource for food production in the form of fertilizers, yet current global phosphate reserves could be depleted this century. More concerning is a global peak in phosphorus production – peak phosphorus – based on current official estimates of world resources, is estimated to occur around 2030, only decades after the likely peak in oil production. The situation for phosphorus is worse than for oil however, as there is no substitute for phosphorus in food production. Demand for phosphorus will increase over the next 50 years as the world population is projected to increase by 50% and with changing diets. While the exact timing of peak production might be disputed, it is widely known within the industry that the quality of remaining phosphate rock is decreasing, and costs are increasing. The price of phosphate rock has increased 700% in 14 months alone. Yet unlike water, energy and nitrogen, there is no international organisation which has taken on responsibility for the long-term stewardship or management of phosphorus resources for global food security. Institutional arrangements surrounding the global phosphorus cycle are fragmented and phosphorus sustainability is perceived quite differently by different stakeholders. In the absence of any deliberate international oversight, phosphorus resources are governed by the forces of the international market and national interest.