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Future Transport Technology Report prepared to support the development of the Transport Strategy for the South East Future transport technology tfse.org.uk/transport-strategy Transport for the South East LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY Final Report AUGUST 2019 CONFIDENTIAL Transport for the South East LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY Final Report CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 70050793 DATE: AUGUST 2019 WSP WSP House 70 Chancery Lane London WC2A 1AF Phone: +44 20 7314 5000 Fax: +44 20 7314 5111 WSP.com CONFIDENTIAL CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 LOCAL & NATIONAL OVERVIEW 2 2.1 LOCAL OVERVIEW 2 2.2 NATIONAL OVERVIEW 3 3 MEGA TRENDS 15 3.2 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES 15 3.3 SOCIAL CHANGE 23 3.4 ENVIRONMENTAL FOCUS 26 3.5 ECOMOMIC SHIFT 29 3.6 POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 31 3.7 TAKING A CITIZEN AND BUSINESS CENTRIC APPROACH 32 4 MOBILITY TRENDS 35 4.2 CONNECTED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 36 4.3 AUTOMATED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 37 4.4 ELECTRIC (& ALTERNATIVES) TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 40 4.5 SHARED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 41 5 TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGES IN THE TFSE AREA 44 5.2 CONNECTED 44 5.3 AUTOMATED 48 5.4 ELECTRIC (AND ALTERNATIVES) 48 5.5 SHARED 52 6 IMPACTS OF NEW MOBILITY ON DEMAND 53 6.2 EMERGING MOBILITY MODEL DEFINITIONS 53 6.3 MOBILITY MODEL DASHBOARD DEVELOPMENT 54 MODEL OVERVIEW 54 LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 August 2019 Transport for the South East Page 1 of 111 6.4 EXISTENT MOBILITY MODEL ANALYSIS 59 6.5 POTENTIAL FUTURE MOBILITY MODEL IMPACTS ANALYSIS 60 6.6 FULL MOBILITY MODEL DASHBOARDS 64 6.7 IN SUMMARY 64 7 REVIEW OF EXISTING TFSE FUTURE MOBILITY INITIATIVES 66 7.1 EXISTING TFSE MOBILITY BUSINESS MODELS OVERVIEW 66 7.2 SUMMARY OF TFSE ACTIVITY RELATING TO DFT SIX ‘KEY CHANGES’ 73 AUTOMATION 73 CLEANER TRANSPORT 75 NEW BUSINESS MODELS 78 NEW MODES 78 DATA & CONNECTIVITY 78 CHANGING ATTITUDES 79 7.3 KEY OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR FUTURE MOBILITY INITIATIVES WITHIN TFSE 2020- 2025 (BY TYPOLOGY AND MOBILITY BUSINESS MODEL) 80 8 FUTURE MOBILITY STAKEHOLDER ROLES 85 8.1 TFSE AREA STAKEHOLDER ROLES 85 8.2 ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS FOR TFSE TO INCREASE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR COLLABORATION 96 8.3 INSIGHTS INTO HOW TO BUILD THE BENEFITS OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES INTO A BUSINESS CASE 100 FORECASTING IMPACTS 100 APPRAISAL IMPACTS 102 BUSINESS CASE SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS 104 8.4 THE RELATIVE NEED FOR FUNDING FROM THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO ENABLE NEW MOBILITY SOLUTIONS 105 8.5 IDENTIFICATION OF FURTHER ACTIONS TFSE CAN DO TO ENSURE A CUSTOMER FOCUS TO ITS ACTIVITIES 106 8.6 RECOMMENDATIONS AND INSIGHTS 109 9 CONCLUSIONS 111 LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 August 2019 Transport for the South East Page 2 of 111 TABLES Table 1 - Demographic Challenges 15 Table 2 - Social Change 23 Table 3 – Environmental Focus 26 Table 4 – Economic Shift 29 Table 5 – Political Landscape 31 Table 6 – Connected Technology Trends 36 Table 7 – Automated Technology Trends 37 Table 8 – Electric (and Alternatives) Technology Trends 40 Table 9 – Shared Technology Trends 41 Table 10 – Business Model Trends 42 Table 11 - Mode Icon Reference 55 Table 12 - Model Maturity Level Criteria 57 Table 13 - Geographical Applicability Icon Reference 58 Table 14 - Assumed CAV Technology Readiness Level 2020, 2025 & 2030 61 Table 15 - Impact on Baseline Total VKT Icon Reference 62 Table 16 - TfSE Strategic Priorities Assessment Inclusion Justification 63 Table 17 - Extent of Mobility Model Contribution to Achieving TfSE Strategic Principles Reference 64 Table 18 – Mobility Business Model Initiatives in the TfSE Area 66 Table 19 – Live Innovate UK Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Funding in the TfSE Area 74 Table 20 – Live Innovate UK Cleaner Transport Initiative Funding in the TfSE Area 76 Table 21 – Key Opportunities and Risks Associated with Emerging Mobility Business Models 81 Table 22 – TfSE Area Future Mobility Stakeholder Roles 85 Table 23 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: Automation 87 Table 24 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: Cleaner Transport 88 Table 25 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: New Business Models 90 Table 26 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: New Modes 92 Table 27 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: Data & Connectivity 93 Table 28 – Stakeholder Opportunities Associated with DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes: Changing Attitudes 95 Table 29 – Assessment of Options for TfSE to Increase Public and Private Sector Collaboration 96 Table 30 – Assessment of Potential Impacts of DfT Six Key Future Mobility Changes on Appraisal Methods 102 Table 31 – Funding Mechanisms Aimed at Supporting Industry & Local Leaders 105 Table 32 – Funding Mechanisms Aimed at Technology Specific Development Programmes 106 Table 33 – Further Actions TfSE Could Undertake to Ensure a Customer Focus 107 Table 34 – Adjacent Sector Recommendations to Enable Wider Transportation Improvements 109 LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 August 2019 Transport for the South East Page 3 of 111 FIGURES Figure 1 - Transport for the South East Partners 2 Figure 2 - Predicted Proportion of Population Aged over 85 in 2020, 2025 and 2030 in the TfSE Area 15 Figure 3 – Proportion of Adults who Walk or Cycle at least Once a Month in the TfSE Area 2012-2017 17 Figure 4 - Net Migration in 2020, 2025 & 2030 as a Component of Total Population in TfSE Local Authorities 19 Figure 5 - Gross Disposable Household per Person by TfSE Local Authorities in 2016 20 Figure 6 - Proportion of Mothers Aged 30+ between 2010-2016 in TfSE Local Authorities 22 Figure 7 - Proportion of Electricity Consumption that is from Renewable Sources in TfSE Local Authorities 28 Figure 8 - TfSE Local Authority Employment Industries 30 Figure 9 - Average Delay on Locally Managed 'A' Roads in the TfSE Area 2015-2017 34 Figure 10 – 4G Network Coverage, TfSE Area 44 Figure 11 – Percentage of Residents Experiencing Superfast & Ultrafast Broadband Speeds in the TfSE Area 45 Figure 12 – Proportion of Addresses with access to Fibre Connectivity in the TfSE Area 46 Figure 13 – Predicted Uptake of Connected Vehicle Technology in the UK 47 Figure 14 – Plug-in car/van Initiative vehicles registered in TfSE Local Authorities in Q3 2018 49 Figure 15 – Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities Portsmouth 50 Figure 16 – Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities Southampton 50 Figure 17 - Number of EV Chargers Vs Registered EVs per UK Region 51 APPENDICES TFSE MOBILITY MODEL DASHBOARDS - MOBILITY MODEL WIDER IMPACTS - INNOVATE UK FUNDED CAV PROJECTS IN TFSE REGION - INNOVATE UK FUNDED CLEANER TRANSPORT PROJECTS IN TFSE REGION LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 August 2019 Transport for the South East Page 4 of 111 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1.1. Late in 2018 WSP were appointed to undertake a ‘Transport Technology Study’ as part of the development of the wider transport strategy. This Technology Study (Lot D) is one of the four in a suite of work which informs the main strategy development (Lot A) and the parallel Freight Study work (Lot B). As such, the information contained within this report has been shared with the wider team to inform their work. 1.1.2. Transportation and mobility is at the start of what could be a revolution, largely driven by advances in digitisation, influencing the choices in when and how people (and businesses) access places for a myriad of activities. Traditionally the transport planning focus has been on the ‘commuting’ peak, but with changes to employment and leisure activities many parts of the transport network are already experiencing significant pressure at other times of the day and week. 1.1.3. Considering the wider access and mobility needs rather than just traditional transportation modes provides for an integrated approach to people, the places they need to visit and the activities they undertake. This also allows for a wider consideration of land use, activity and mobility needs, all within the context of enabling economic growth across the region. 1.1.4. At the heart of our approach is a fundamental assumption that transport / mobility (in all its guises) is an economic enabler facilitating thriving communities, citizens and commerce. We also embrace the need for sustainable outcomes with potential solutions tailored to the specific needs of a place, its people and the activities they undertake, in this case the large and diverse area that is TfSE. Technology (and associated services) should not be ‘one size fits all’ and must serve regional and local needs, their specific challenges and help realise opportunities. 1.1.5. We have developed an approach which adds value in developing robust inputs to Lot A as well as providing a solid, standalone foundation for policy and strategy development going forward. 1.1.6. This report includes: · Chapter 1: Introduction · Chapter 2: Local & National Overview · Chapter 3: Mega Trends · Chapter 4: Mobility Trends · Chapter 5: Trajectories of Changes in the TfSE Area · Chapter 6: Impacts of New Mobility on Demand · Chapter 7: Review of Existing TfSE Future Mobility Initiatives · Chapter 8: Future Mobility Stakeholder Roles · Chapter 9: Conclusions LOT D - FUTURE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 August 2019 Transport for the South East Page 1 of 111 2 LOCAL & NATIONAL OVERVIEW 2.1 LOCAL OVERVIEW 2.1.1. Transport for the South
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