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Credicorp Ltd. HOLD

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Credicorp Ltd. HOLD EQUITY RESEARCH | Update August 15th, 2014 Alberto Arispe Marco Contreras Financial Industry Fair Value Head of Research Senior Analyst (511) 630 7500 (511) 630 7528 USD 165.00 [email protected] [email protected] Credicorp Ltd. HOLD Credicorp Ltd. (BVL: BAP) Upside already internalized by market Equity's Fair Value (USD MM) 13,160.43 Kallpa Securities SAB updates the valuation model of Credicorp Ltd. Share's Fair Value (USD) 165.00 (Credicorp), with a hold recommendation. Our USD 165.00 new fair value Previous Fair Value (Aug-13) 155.00 (FV) per share (higher than our previous FV of USD 155.00) is 5.8% above Recommendation Hold the USD 156.00 market price as of the closing of August 13th, 2014. Market Capitalization (USD MM) 12,442.79 Share's Market Price (USD) 156.00 We updated our Credicorp model to include the company’s new financial Shares Outstanding (MM) 79.76 results as of 2Q2014, and we provide a new fair value for 2015. We valued Upside 5.8% Credicorp using a Dividend Discount Model with constant growth. We ADTV - LTM (USD 000') 645.49 estimate a P / BV ratio for 2015 of 2.37x, which is higher than the current Range 52 weeks 118.84 - 159.00 market P / BV for 2015 of 2.24x. YTD Change 21.0% Dividend Yield - LTM 1.2% What changed in our model? Trading NYSE, BVL We used the equity estimated for Credicorp for 2015 in our valuation. ADTV: Average Daily Traded Volume LTM: Last Twelve Months We kept unchanged our average ROE of 18.7% for the next five Source: Bloomberg, Kallpa SAB years (2015-2019). Financial Ratios 2013 2014e 2015e 2Q2014’s results, without considering the acquisition of Mibanco, show a continuous growth in loans (+16.4% YoY) and the net interest income Loans/Deposits 0.94 0.94 0.95 (+19.7% YoY). Also, the following stood out in the contribution to the net NIM 4.9% 5.6% 5.5% income: i) a better performance of the insurance business (+26.3% YoY); Efficiency Ratio 45.3% 43.1% 41.6% and ii) extraordinary income for PEN 48.4 MM in Prima AFP and Atlantic EPS (PEN) 19.29 29.65 33.85 Security Bank. ROE 13.9% 18.5% 18.5% ROA 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% Without considering the extraordinary income, operating income would have P / E 22.64 14.73 12.91 been only 0.7% above our estimates. However, there were marked P / BV 2.94 2.54 2.24 differences in the main income and expenses accounts (mainly, the higher net interest margin and a strong increase in operating expenses) due to the NIM: Net Interest Margin inclusion of Mibanco. Net Interest Income / (Funds + Investments + Loans) Efficiency: OPEX / ( NII + Fees + Insurance Premiums and Med. Services) Therefore, we made adjustments to our model, reducing the EPS for 2014 Source: SMV, Kallpa SAB and 2015 by 0.5% and 2.7%, respectively. This did not cause significant changes in our estimated 18.7% ROE for the following five years (2015- Chart Nº 1: BAP vs. INCA 2019). Nevertheless, as we are using the equity expected for 2015 USD Pts. (previously we used the one for 2014), we have increased our FV from USD 170 BAP INCA 100 155.00 to USD 165.00 with a hold recommendation. 160 95 150 140 90 130 85 120 80 110 100 75 Jul-14 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 May-14 Source: Bloomberg Financial | Credicorp Ltd. Company's Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT (PEN MM) 2013 2014e 2015e BALANCE SHEET (PEN MM) 2013 2014e 2015e Interest Income 7,024 8,480 9,707 Cash and Due from Banks 21,763 29,419 33,891 Interest Expenses -2,059 -2,143 -2,428 Investments 19,711 20,465 21,262 Net Interest Income 4,965 6,337 7,279 Net Loans 62,098 75,107 85,320 Net Provisions for Loan Losses -1,238 -1,769 -2,074 Property, Plant and Equipment, Net 2,020 2,314 2,568 Net Income After Provisions 3,726 4,568 5,206 Intangible Assets 2,071 2,087 2,107 Non Financial Income 2,982 3,381 3,757 Other Assets 6,431 7,071 7,632 Insurance Services Technical Result 384 437 496 Total Assets 114,094 136,464 152,780 Medical Services Technical Result 64 85 98 Deposits and Obligations 68,407 83,486 94,073 Operating Expenses -4,537 -5,206 -5,815 Due to Banks and Correspondents 7,173 8,754 9,864 Operating Income 2,619 3,265 3,742 Reserves for Claims 4,985 4,985 4,985 Translation Result -284 -0 - Bonds and Subordinated Debt 14,134 17,249 19,437 Income Tax -778 -839 -973 Other Liabilities 7,053 7,723 8,213 Net Income 1,558 2,425 2,769 Total Liabilities 101,751 122,197 136,572 Minority Interest 19 61 69 Equity Attributable to Credicorp 11,832 13,694 15,566 Attributable to Credicorp 1,539 2,365 2,700 Minority Interest 512 572 642 Shares outstanding - Average (MM) 80 80 80 Net Equity 12,343 14,266 16,208 Earnings per share - EPS (PEN) 19.29 29.65 33.85 Total Liabilities + Equity 114,094 136,464 152,780 GROWTH RATES (%) 2013e 2014e 2015e CASH FLOW (PEN MM) 2013e 2014e 2014e Loans' Growth 17.5% 21.9% 13.8% Net income 1,539 2,365 2,700 Deposits' Growth 11.5% 22.0% 12.7% Non Cash Expenses 832 1,423 953 Net Interest Income's Growth 17.0% 27.7% 14.9% Changes in Assets and Liabilities -952 1,859 44 Provisions' Growth 24.6% 42.9% 17.2% Operating Cash Flow 1,419 5,647 3,697 Operating Income's Growth 0.8% 24.6% 14.6% Investment Cash Flow -889 -665 -654 Net Income's Growth -26.0% 53.7% 14.2% Financing Cash Flow 1,615 2,674 1,429 Free Cash Flow 2,145 7,656 4,472 FINANCIAL RATIOS 2013e 2014e 2015e CHART N° 2: SHAREHOLDERS Net Interest Margin (NIM) 4.9% 5.6% 5.5% PDL Ratio 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% NPL Ratio 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 14% Cedefast Coverage for PDL 157.5% 160.5% 163.1% 2% Atlantic Security Holding Coverage for NPL 125.3% 127.0% 128.9% 12% Pension Funds Efficiency Ratio 45.3% 43.1% 41.6% Loans / Deposits 0.94 0.94 0.95 56% Urigeler International Payout Ratio 37.7% 32.6% 35.0% Others 15% Dividends per Share (USD) 7.27 6.30 10.38 ROE 13.1% 18.5% 18.5% ROA 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% VALUATION 2013e 2014e 2015e CHART N° 3: BCP LOANS - 2Q2014 P / E 22.64 14.73 12.91 P / BV 2.94 2.54 2.24 Corporate 5% 4% Medium sized companies 5% MANAGEMENT 30% SME Walter Bayly CEO 8% Small Businesses Fernando Dasso CFO Mortgages Álvaro Correa Insurance Manager Consumption 16% José Esposito Auditing Manager Credit cards Edyficar Aida Kleffmann IRO 4% 17% 11% Others Source: Credicorp, SMV, Kallpa SAB www.kallpasab.com Update 2 Financial | Credicorp Ltd. Chart Nº 4: PEN and USD Loans 2Q2014: Extraordinary revenues boosted results above our PEN USD expectations 36,000 PEN USD 11,900 34,000 11,700 Credicorp reported results as of 2Q2014, registering earnings per share 32,000 (EPS) of PEN 7.33, higher than our PEN 6.84 estimate and the PEN 1.83 11,500 registered in 2Q2013. 30,000 11,300 28,000 11,100 The main differences with our estimates were caused by the following 26,000 factors: 10,900 24,000 22,000 10,700 i. Net interest income after provisions was 7.5% higher than expected. This was caused by a 12.7% higher than estimated net 20,000 10,500 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 interest income (NII), due to the inclusion of the results of Mibanco Source: SBS, Kallpa SAB and lower funding costs. This was partially offset by higher provisions than expected (+27.3%), caused mainly by the inclusion of Mibanco’s Chart Nº 5: Past due loans by segment provisions. 12% 2Q13 2Q14 ii. 10.8% higher than expected operating expenses (counteracting 10% the effect of the higher NII), due to the inclusion of Mibanco’s 8% operating expenses. 6% iii. Extraordinary revenues of PEN 48.4 MM, result of: a) PEN 40.8 4% MM of revenues received by Atlantic Security Bank from reinsurers compensation of claims related to losses incurred during the 2008 2% crisis; and, b) PEN 6.6 MM for the profit of the sale of a property and the reversion of tax provisions in Prima AFP. Without this 0% SME Credit Cards Edyficar Consumption Mortgage extraordinary revenues, operating income would have been in line Source: Credicorp with our estimates (0.7% higher). Chart Nº 6: PDL vs. Coverage Ratios Below are the quarter’s most relevant points (see details in Page 5): PDL* Cobertura 2.8% PDL Ratio Coverage Ratio 170% Net interest income increased 34.3% YoY, supported by: i) a 24.7% 165% 2.6% YoY increase in interest income, caused by a 23.7% YoY growth 160% 2.4% (+16.4% YoY excluding Mibanco) in the loan portfolio; and, ii) a 2.7% 155% 2.2% YoY increase in interest expenses, as the lower funding costs offset 150% 2.0% the 15.3% YoY increase in deposits.
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