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Equity Research July 9th, 2019 Monthly Andean Strategy Update Our Andean strategy remains unchanged In June, the Andean region posted a positive performance across the CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH board in line with other LatAm markets. Chile, Peru and Colombia posted • 6.6%, 6.1% and 9.6% returns in USD terms (+1.9%, +3.5%, and +4.2% in local terms), respectively; LatAm posted a 6.0% return in USD terms. Daniel Velandia, CFA We maintain our Overweight recommendation for Chile; the +(571) 3394400 ext. 1505 performance in June was positive, but there is still a long way to go. [email protected] • We expect the economy to grow by slightly above 2% in 1H19, but we assume the return of close-to-potential growth rates starting in 2H19. Carolina Ratto • Cencosud’s real estate IPO has passed and Enel Am’s subscription +(562) 2446 1768 period started last week. Although we still have to wait for 30 more [email protected] days, the overhang should disappear starting in August. • June was a positive month for the index with a generalized recovery; Tomás Sanhueza however, it is still soft, and major impulse should come going into 2H19. +(562) 2446 1751 • Valuations remain discounted, even when stressing the earnings growth [email protected] of relevant sectors such as Pulp, Retail and Banks. This leads to a limited downside to current levels. Sebastián Gallego, CFA We maintain our Neutral position on Colombia. Positive news drove +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 the Colombian market in June as the Senate rejected the proposal to [email protected] eliminate some banking fees and the reorganization of Casino’s assets benefited Exito. Daniel Córdova • The local index climbed 10.1% in USD terms (4.6% in local currency), +(511) 416 3333 Ext. 33052 compared to a 6.2% increase for the MSCI Latam.. [email protected] • We maintain a neutral to positive view on the macro front, and we reiterate our 3.3% GDP forecast for 2019E. That said, we acknowledge that fiscal uncertainties remain. • Forward multiples continue to look attractive. • We maintain key players of the banking system as part of our Top Picks. Operating/financial trends should remain constructive towards 2020, and we continue to expect ROAE expansion. Furthermore, the rejection of the proposal to eliminate some banking fees was positive in our view. • We maintain our bets on other key sectors (cement & construction and private consumption). • Accordingly, our top picks are Davivienda, Bancolombia, Cementos Argos and Nutresa. We maintain our Underweight recommendation for Peru as concerns about the deterioration of the external front and weak investment at home persist. • The US and China are giving trade negotiations another chance, providing at least short-term support for base metals prices. • Private consumption remains relatively strong, providing support to names such as InRetail and IFS. • Non-mining private investment is still subdued. Even though there have been some positive signs from public investment, we need to see a more consistent trend before we become more constructive on Peru. • From a medium-term strategy viewpoint, we favor utilities to avoid the IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This document is intended for INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is not subject to all of the independence and volatility of mining companies and high beta sectors. disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies • Based on solid company fundamentals and their respective industry’s covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. favorable dynamics, we maintain Ferreycorp and InRetail as our Top Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their Picks. investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 22 to 25, Analyst Certification on Page 22. Additional disclosures on page 25. 1 Actualizar Contents Monthly Andean Strategy Update Chile: Some green shoots during the month; still a long way to go 5 Top Picks 8 Colombia: Several positive surprises on the Colombian market during June 9 Top Picks 13 Peru: With market risks still looming, opportunities come down to specific names 13 Top Picks 15 Valuation Summary 17 Economic Forecasts 21 2 Actualizar LTM Andean Equities Performance (in USD) IPSA COLCAP SP BVL General Index MSCI Latam 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg Andean Equities Fwd P/E (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average P/E FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 20.0x 30.0% 18.0x 15.0x 20.0% 16.0x 13.7x 14.6x 14.0x 10.0% 12.0x 10.0x 0.0% 8.0x 6.0x -10.0% 4.0x -16% -17% -21% -20.0% 2.0x .0x -30.0% Chile Peru* Colombia *Peru: vs 2Y historical average Andean Equities Fwd EV/EBITDA (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average EV/EBITDA FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 9.0x 0.0% 7.6x 8.0x 7.0x 7.2x -2.0% 7.0x -4.0% 6.0x -6.0% -8.0% 5.0x -10.0% 4.0x -12.0% 3.0x -15% -14% -14.0% 2.0x -16.0% -17% 1.0x -18.0% .0x -20.0% Chile Peru Colombia Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg 3 Strategy Summary within Andean Context Long view Short view (12-to-18 months) (1-to -3 months) Chile Allocation: Overweight (+) Safe haven on the regional landscape compared to riskier markets The Cencosud's real estate IPO has passed, while (+) Discounted valuations when compared to its history the Enel Americas capital increase just started its (+) Positive recovery in 2H19 of macro figures subscription period for 30 days. Although one deal (+) Important capital market events are fading away has gone by, we still have to wait not to have further (-) Negative impact of global risks overhang. We believe it all comes down to earnings (-) No clear catalyst with lacking earning growth in short term growth and macro recovery, as we believe those are (-) Exposure to risks coming from Argentina and Brazil the triggers to unlock the value seen in the discounted valuations of the market. Strategy: We continue to favor a stock picking strategy of companies with solid fundamentals, earnings momentum and clear catalysts. Top picks: ILC, Engie Chile and SQM-B Colombia Allocation: neutral (+) Better operating/financial trends at the banking sector and rejection of the law to The most important issues in the short term are: eliminate fees. global tensions, oil prices, exchange rate (+) Recovery of the consumption and cement/construction sectors. performance, corporate governance issues/news, (+) Inflows coming from local pension funds. special opeartions for ISA and Éxito and 2Q19 (-) Volatility across foreign markets. results. (-) Twin deficits. (-) Labour market. Strategy: We have decided to stay Neutral in Colombia. We see higher risk aversion around the globe, which is not particularly positive for Colombia even when considering a relative context. From a bottom-up perspective, we maintian Bancolombia and Davivienda in our top picks given the positive perspective on the sector. Finally, we continue to bet on private consumption and cement sectors. Top picks: Davivienda, Bancolombia, Cementos Argos, and Nutresa. Peru Allocation: Underweight (+) Private consumption remains resilient, in contrast with both public and private Momentum would continue in Luz del Sur, amid its investment. process of sale. For InRetail, we leverage on (+) Political noise is low, though risk of confrontation remains. synergies to be unlocked and 2Q19 results. Also, we (+/-) Truce in US-China trade war gives support to metal prices, but uncertainty is think Unacem's 2Q19 results will reaffirm additional high regarding final outcome of negotiations. value from the elimination of management (-) Business expectations deteriorated again; skepticism remains over meaningful contracts. Engie still shows upside potential, and economic stimulus measures. 2Q19 results should be sound. Finally, Nexa (-) Valuations of non-mining companies remain at their historical averages. Resources bets on zinc price recovery, and it is strongly discounted vs. its global peers. Strategy: Trading ideas: As commodity price short-term risks persist, we continue favoring tocks such as Luz del Sur, InRetail, Unacem, Engie Peru and Nexa Ferreycorp, linked to the upcycle of mining investment. Also, strong private Resources. consumption in 2019 and company fundamentals support InRetail. Top Picks: InRetail and Ferreycorp. 4 Chile Some green shoots during the month; still a long way to go Positive month in In June, the Chilean market posted a positive return in CLP (+1.9%) and USD terms of returns for (+6.6%), which was below the performance of Peru and Colombia in local currency Chile. (+3.5% and +4.2%, respectively). The local market posted a positive performance compared to previous months, which we ascribe to the recent rate cut by the Central Bank, reaffirming a better macro outlook for 2H19 as well as a higher appetite for large cap names that are discounted. However, we maintain our view that the recovery of the local index will be gradual during the 2H19, given that foreign investors are still on the sidelines of the local market with limited flow activity. This is enhanced by the holiday season in the northern hemisphere, which started in June. Local investors continue to be cautious and are not showing a clear trend. As we have mentioned in previous reports, we believe local investors have been on the sidelines due to two of the most significant capital market events of the year: (i) the USD 3.0bn capital increase of Enel Americas and (ii) the IPO of the real estate division of Cencosud, which is expected to amount to USD 1.0bn.
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