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Presentación De Powerpoint Company Note Grupo Aval – Multibank Transaction Financial Services Economic, Sector and Market Research October 2019 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 5 Grupo Aval Expands Analysts Andrea Atuesta Meza Financial Sector Analyst [email protected] Exposure in Panama (+57) 1 746 4329 Banco de Bogota Marketweight, TP 76,800 Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA Cement & Infrastructure Analyst Grupo Aval announced the acquisition of Multibank Financial Group through its [email protected] (+57) 4 604 7045 subsidiary Banco de Bogota, in Panama. According to the company, the P/BV of the operation was 1.3x with a ROE of 11.1%, for a transaction value of Table 1. Ke Panama USD726 mn. Variables 2019 When comparing the multiple with the average of transactions in the region of Country risk 1.43% 1.7x and ROE of 15.5%, it looks like a transaction at market prices, because of Risk-free rate 2.45% the lower multiple paid is due to the lower return generated vs. peers. Our Ke Beta 1 for Panama is 9.54%, which is why we believe that the operation generates Risk premium 5.66% value for the shareholder. Ke 9.54% However, when comparing the multiple of the transaction with market multiples for comparable banks, the P/BV vs. ROE ratio would place the transaction below the regression line in graph 2, pointing to a purchase with discount Figure 1. Market share Panama 2018 without premium payment for control. Banco General Banistmo BAC Multibank – Expansion in Panama with potential improvement in Multibank Global Bank Otros profitability At the end of 2018 Multibank had a 5.3% market share while BAC had a 6.1%, rd thus after the transaction they will become the 3 player in the country with an 18.60% 11.4% share, behind Banco General (18.6%) and Banistmo (12.9%). 46.20% 12.90% Multibank shows an important evolution of the business with a CAGR (2014 - 2018) of the gross loan portfolio of 8.7% and a 2.2-pp growth in market share 6.10% since 2013. However, in 1H19 gross loan portfolio growth slowed to 0.44%, net 5.30% income (12 months) showed a variation of 2.6% and ROE was 11.1%. When 10.90% comparing the latter with BAC’s (14%), there is a great opportunity for Banco Source: Multibank, Grupo Bancolombia. de Bogota to look for efficiencies and improve the profitability of Multibank. Figure 2. P/B vs. ROE (Latam banks) Figure 3. Comparable transactions (Latam) 4.0x PBV ROE 3.5x Multibank 1.3x 11.1% Banco de Chile 3.0x Banco Santander Chile Average 1.7x 12.4% 2.5x Median 1.6x Credicorp 14.4% P/BV Banco Bradesco 2.0x Banco Cred Inver Source: Capital IQ, Grupo Bancolombia. Bancolombia Grupo Aval Grupo F Banort-O 1.5x Multibank Banco de Bogotá Davivienda Gentera Sab Banco do Brazil 1.0x Grupo Fin Inbursa Itau Corpbanca 0.5x 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% ROE Source: Bloomberg, Grupo Bancolombia. About Multibank Grupo Aval, the leading financial conglomerate in Colombia and Central America, signed an agreement to acquire Multibank Financial Group (MFG), holding company of Multibank Panama. This transaction will be made through Leasing Bogota, a subsidiary of Banco de Bogota, so that it will be part of the investments they have in the region with the banking group BAC Credomatic. The closing of the transaction is expected to take place in 2Q20, after completing the required regulatory approvals. It is important to highlight that Grupo Aval is reviewing what the financing structure of the purchase will be, we’re yet to learn whether it will be done only with own resources or if they will go to some type of funding. However, whatever the scenario is, Banco de Bogota will continue to comply with all the solvency requirements demanded by Basel 3. Multibank is a bank with presence in mainly in Panama and at the end of 2Q19 total assets amounted to USD4,954 mn with a gross loan portfolio of USD3,443 mn, representing 69% of assets, where 47% corresponds to corporate banking and 41% to retail banking. Within corporate banking, the company features a diversified portfolio, in which construction and business represent 28%, corporate 25% and agriculture 12%. This is in line with Grupo Aval’s strategy that seeks to further diversify its portfolio and enter new segments such as SMEs, agribusiness, and construction. As mentioned earlier, the assets of this operation are close to USD5 bn, which represents approximately 6% of Grupo Aval and 9% of the consolidated assets of Banco de Bogota. In this vein, the exposure of Banco de Bogota’s loan portfolio in Panama would increase from 12% to 17.1%, exceeding the 13% exposure in Costa Rica. This transaction is seen as an opportunity and diversification strategy in Panama, since in Costa Rica there is a small representation operation (0.1% of the net loan portfolio) and the Colombian operation is not included in the transaction. Table 2. Main indicators Multibank Panama USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM 2T19 Gross Loans 2,452 2,675 2,945 3,172 3,427 3,442 Total Assets 3,619 3,926 4,268 4,691 4,895 4,954 Total Deposits 2,361 2,443 2,708 2,801 2,896 2,903 Total Equity 364 367 438 499 523 560 Net Income 42 50 52 58 57 58 ROE 12.8% 13.8% 13.0% 12.5% 11.1% 11.1% Credit Quality 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 1.3% 1.7% Coverage 78.9% 87.1% 62.9% 41.2% 103.2% 85.7% Table 3. Main indicators Banco de Bogota Consolidated COP mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM 2T19 Gross Loans 71,341,210 97,033,427 102,943,186 110,405,468 118,832,410 111,854,023 Total Assets 118,366,641 153,350,464 141,491,431 149,405,125 163,302,509 163,382,960 Total Deposits 73,678,984 92,071,864 93,704,633 100,980,539 108,443,964 107,446,608 Total Equity 16,060,050 17,772,934 17,310,666 18,210,221 19,667,774 20,180,497 Net Income 1,388,620 2,075,685 4,309,390 2,064,130 2,937,262 3,207,098 ROE 12.8% 16.6% 25.2% 12.9% 16.5% 18.5% Credit Quality NA 4.3% 4.1% 5.4% 6.5% 7.2% Coverage NA 51.2% 55.8% 54.0% 66.2% 64.9% , Table 4. Main indicators BAC International Inc. Consolidated USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM 2T19 Gross Loans 11,622 13,142 14,310 15,525 16,245 16,082 Total Assets 17,077 18,705 20,048 22,018 22,752 22,997 Total Deposits 11,371 12,291 13,183 14,942 15,687 15,995 Total Equity 1,956 2,240 2,373 2,628 2,692 2,951 Net Income 323 320 345 376 405 394 ROE 16.5% 15.6% 15.9% 15.3% 15.1% 14.0% Credit Quality 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% Coverage 94.4% 91.9% 95.7% 101.3% 163.2% 148.0% Source: Capital IQ, Grupo Bancolombia, Economic, Industry and Market Research Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango Director [email protected] +571 7463991 ext. 37313 Economic research Industry Research Equity Research Diego Fernando Zamora Díaz Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo Senior Economist Industry Research Manager Head of Equity Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463997 ext. 37319 +574 4044649 ext 44649 +574 6047048 Arturo Yesid González Peña Nicolás Pineda Bernal Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar Quantitative Analyst Industry Research Manager Energy Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463980 ext 37385 +574 4042985 ext 42985 +571 7463984 Santiago Espitia Pinzón Juan Sebastián Neira Orozco Andrea Atuesta Meza Macroeconomic Analyst Industry Research Manager Financial Sector Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] + 571 7463988 ext. 37315 +571 7464329 Paolo Betancur Montoya Bryan Hurtado Campuzano Industry Research Manager Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA International and Regional Analyst [email protected] Cement & Infrastructure Analyst [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463980 ext. 37303 +574 6047045 Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera International and Markets Analyst Oil & Gas Analyst [email protected] [email protected] +571 7464322 ext. 37380 +571 7464596 Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes Valentina Martinez Jaramillo Central Banking and Financial System Junior Analyst Analyst [email protected] [email protected] +574 6048906 +571 7463994 ext. 37316 Alejandro Quiceno Rendón Karen Stefanny Correa Castaño Research Editor Interrn +574 6048904 [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463988 ext. 37310 Ana María Núñez Buriticá Intern [email protected] +571 7464318 Condiciones de Uso This report has been prepared by Analysis Bancolombia a research and analysis department at Grupo Bancolombia. It shall not to be distributed, copied, sold, or altered in any way without the express permission of Grupo Bancolombia, nor be used for any purpose other than to serve as background material which does not constitute an offer, advice, recommendation, or suggestion by Grupo Bancolombia for making investment decisions or conducting any transactions or business. The use of the information provided is solely the responsibility of the recipient. Before making an investment decision, you should assess multiple factors such as the risks of each instrument, your risk profile, your liquidity needs, among others.
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