The Future Imagined-Bina for NAEC-OECD.Pptx

FLAGSHIP Forward Looking Driving Change

Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union http://flagship-project.eu/

The Future Imagined: The art and science that shape the future Olivia Bina New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) – Lunch Seminar Series, 1st July 2016, OECD, Paris FLAGSHIP Scenarios EU 2050 FLAGSHIP Forward Looking Driving Change

Fit to sustainable development Window of opportunity goals for paradigmatic change

Resilience GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS High PARADIGM sustainability INERTIAL threshold Scenario

Disruptive GLOBAL dynamics & PERSEVERANCE game channgers WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC

foresight GROWTH Low At risk of collapse sustainability change SHIFT Anticipatory radical PARADIGM threshold Scenario to steer

GLOBAL COLLAPSE

2020 2030 2050 TIME

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD Sessa & Ricci1/VII/16 2015

Lead by MCRIT http://flagship-project.eu/flagship-visions/

27 Novels 37 Films Futures

Fiction 64

150 yrs [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

CONTEXT High frequency Art & Science shaping RESULTS: the future patterns • archetypes • pathways • scarcity/ abundance Future Imagined DARING: Implications for CAUTIONING: futures, possibilities, Implications for and ways of knowing science

Persistent cris(e)s Anthropocene Global economic woes / NAEC Global ecological degradation / GCR + Future Challenges, Innovation & Hope Europe’s research programming / after H2020

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Science & Research Europe’s investment

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

EU – science & foresight

! Horizon 2020 - the biggest EU Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 is an (R&I) programme ever investment in our future

! Nearly 80 billion (2014-2020) Robert Jan Smits ! In addition to the private R&I investment it mobilises Director-General Foresight DG RTD (EC 2015)

Strategic Foresight: Driven by Towards the 3rd Strategic Programme of Horizon Grand Societal Challenges 2020 & supported by foresight so as to ‘shape the future’

(Boden et al. 2010: 1)

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Thinking Futures

After Voros 2001

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

GSCs to ‘shape the future’

1. Health, demographic change and wellbeing; 2. Food security, sustainable agriculture and forestry, marine and maritime and …to be able to inland water research, and the ‘shape the Bioeconomy; future’ 3. Secure, clean and efficient energy;

(Boden et al. 4. Smart, green and integrated transport; 2010: 1) 5. Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials; 6. Europe in a changing world - inclusive, innovative and reflective societies; 7. Secure societies - protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens.

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Fiction

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Connecting foresight, science agendas and the arts Fiction

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FLA GSCs

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Our Questions

! What are the main concerns/ hopes in futures fiction? ! Can they enrich our capacity to envision our future challenges? ! Can they enrich today’s framing of science/research priorities (GSCs)? ! What differences between fiction and GSCs, & what implications?

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Fiction’s 6 contributions to FLA H.G. Wells The Time Machine

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Approach

RESULTS Analytical Content Template Core GSCs & Choice of matrix: analysis for each Challenges FLAGSHIP “texts” themes & record/text Network dimensions analysis Major patterns

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Selection criteria: “very significant and lasting impact on the public imagination”

! Relevance – Impact ! Quality ! On social imaginary: creative and symbolic dimension of ! Influence the social world

! Thematic coverage: FLAGSHIP ! Regional Diversity GSCs: ! Demography and Social ! Historical relevance Change; ! Time frame: 1815-today ! Territorial & Global Governance; ! Culturally and socially ! Economy, Research and important (reflecting cultural Innovation; attitudes) ! Environment

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 The Machine Stops Neuromancer Fahrenheit 451 Escape from L.A. The Tomorrow File The Diamond Age, Alphaville Code 46 Paris in the Twentieth or A Young Lady's La Jetée V for Vendetta Century (1863) Illustrated Primer On the Beach District 9 The Time Machine The Giver Solaris Hunger Games We Infinite Jest Logan's Run Children of Men Brave New World Cloud Atlas The Terminator Avatar The Space The Passage Dawn of the Minority Report Merchants The Windup Girl Dead Elysium (2013) The Lathe of Heaven Uglies Mad Max Vexille Stand on Zanzibar The Road RoboCop 28 days Later A Clockwork Orange Feed Blade Runner Appleseed Do Androids Dream The Swarm Brazil The Day after of Electric Sheep? La police en l'an Total Recall Tomorrow 1984 2000 Twelve Monkeys The Handmaid’s Tale Soylent Green The Fifth Element Ender's Game Verdens Undergang Waterworld Z for Zachariah aka The End of the Matrix “significant and The Stand World Gattaca lasting impact Le tunnel sous La on the public Manche imagination” Metropolis 150 years [email protected] • NAEC-OECD Things to come 1/VII/16 Approach

RESULTS Analytical Content Template Core GSCs & Choice of matrix: analysis for each Challenges FLAGSHIP “texts” themes & record/text Network dimensions analysis Major patterns

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

CONTEXT High frequency Art & Science shaping RESULTS: the future patterns • archetypes • pathways • scarcity/ abundance Future Imagined DARING: CAUTIONING: Implications for Implications for futures, possibilities, science and ways of knowing

Results1) Core challenges Frequent patterns

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FLA GSCs

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 23 high frequency patterns (>25%)

1.#Individuals,#society#and#culture! 2.#Science/Technology#and#society! - “Scarcity”!+!!individual!dignity,!human!values!and! - Advanced!technology!(42,2%)! wellbeing!(50,0%)! - Technology#as#a#socioGpoli

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Future societies: labour/jobs

(24 texts)

! No freedom in the choice of jobs

! Genetically manipulated and artificial workforces ! Fit for purpose: moral, age, sex, biological characteristics, caste systems (Metropolis-1927, We-1931, The Handmaid’s Tale-1985, the Giver-1993) ! Task specific (Cloud Atlas-2004; Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep-1968; The Wind-up Girl-2009) ! Artificial augmentation of skills (RoboCop-1987; Avatar-2009; Elysium-2013)

! Slavery and loss of individual rights ! Metropolis-1927; The Space Merchants-1953; Twelve Monkeys-1995 [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Future societies: highly stratified & unequal (32%)

! In some of these texts individuals are ‘produced’ and conditioned for specific social positions, as is the case described in Brave New World: ! ‘I suppose Epsilons don't really mind being Epsilons,’ she said aloud. ‘Of course they don't. How can they? They don't know what it's like being anything else. We'd mind, of course. But then we've been differently conditioned.’ (chapter 5)

! Or biological stratification in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? : ! ‘classed as biologically unacceptable, a menace to the pristine heredity of the race. Once pegged as special, a citizen, even if accepting sterilization, dropped out of history. He ceased, in effect, to be part of mankind.’ (p.15)

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Future societies: Consumption

(31 texts) ! Radical consumption & Absence of consumption ! polarizing, never neutral, predominantly negative in terms of human wellbeing ! Promotion of commodification and consumerism ! For profit/control/manipulation (Brave new World-1932; Infinite Jest-1996; Feed-2002) ! Absence of consumption ! these societies tend to be totalitarian (the Machine Stops-1909; Things to Come-1936; We-1931; Brave New World-1932) ! Or end of consumption ! due to collapse (the Stand-1978; The Handmaids Tale-1985; The Road-2006) ! Or to impoverishment (The Hunger Games-2012)

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Core C.3) Future societies

! Vivid illustrations of ongoing critiques from the perspectives of wellbeing, psychological and ethical implications ! Erosion of human dignity ! Use and abuse of biotechnology and other innovations, often combined with authoritarian regimes ! Prevailing impression: consumerism linked to control and manipulation

! Extremes of growth and scarcity – linked to self- reinforcing patterns: ! Corporate control and rule ! Biotechnology and bioeconomies ! Predatory economies. [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

23 high frequency patterns (>25%)

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Technology

! Technology has positive impacts (11 texts / 17%) ! Elysium-2013

! Information-related technology ! In anti-utopia: state controlled ! In dystopia: corporate control ! In utopia: used to guarantee rational/balanced management of societies

! No example of use of information technology to enhance citizen empowerment and participation

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Technology

! Themes: ! Control, production and intentions ! Access ! Impacts ! Strong link to risks ! Regulatory implications ! Lack of citizen participation (mainly portrayed as victims) ! Concerns: ! Lack of ethical approaches ! Growing inequality

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Environment

! End of Nature (The Road-2006; The Day After Tomorrow-2004)

springfieldpc.dyndns.org

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Environment and Technology (vs Nature)

! Humanity’s increasing alienation from nature is emblematically illustrated early in the 20th century by Forster's The Machine Stops (1909): ! ‘the civilization that had mistaken the functions of the system, and had used it for bringing people to things, instead of for bringing things to people. Those funny old days, when men went for a change of air instead of changing the air in their rooms!’ (p. 5).

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Results2) Of “scarcity” & changing perspective

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FLA GSCs

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Scarcity

! Orthodox and less orthodox ‘scarcities’ abund!

! A broader, “unorthodox” definition of scarcity, observing the ways in which future societies emphasise any kind of: ! insufficiency, ! rarity or ! limited supply.

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Re-defining scarcity? some of the most frequently scarce aspects/dimension depicted in fiction: Self-direction Reflexivity (1984, 1949; The Handmaid’s Tale, 1985; (Feed, 2002) Logan's Run, 1976; Twelve Monkeys, 1995) Dignity Freedom (The Tomorrow File, 1975; A Clockwork (Escape from L.A., 1996; Matrix, Orange, 1962; Hunger Games, 2012) 1999) Hope Security and protection (Soylent Green, 1973; On the Beach, 1959; (The Time Machine, 1895; Mad Blade Runner, 1982; Children of Men, 2006) Max, 1979) Sentiments and emotionality Equality (We, 1921; Do Androids Dream of Electric (Metropolis, 1926; Elysium, 2013) Sheep?, 1968; The Giver, 1993) Identity Peace (We, 1921; Uglies, 2005; Twelve Monkeys, (Appleseed, 2004) 1995) Privacy Justice (Stand on Zanzibar, 1968; Minority Report, (The Tomorrow File, 1975; Elysium, 2002) 2013) Idealism and creativity Love (Paris in the Twentieth Century, 1863; Brazil, (The Machine Stops, 1909; The 1985) Handmaid’s Tale, 1985) Nature (Soylent Green, 1973; Blade Trust (Ender's Game, 1973) Runner, 1982; The Road, 2006) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Results3) Archetypal futures & related pathways

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FLA GSCs

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Creating alternatives & Archetypes - foresight

! James Dator – method to articulate scenario archetypes: ! Continued growth ! Collapse ! Steady ! Transformation

! These 4 prime images have remained stable for the past three decades – ‘deep patterns’ Bezold 2009

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Archetypal visions of the future: Clardy 2011

Archetypal! visions!of!the! ExplanaMon % future The!natural!or!non+natural!moMvaMons! Collapse 40,6 behind!the!civilizaMonal!decadence!or!ruin As!the!portrait!of!authoritarian!projects! An

Two subsets are strongly connected: Utopia • BLU Utopia-Dystopia • RED Anti-utopia – Conflict & Revolution

Dystopia

Anti- Collapse Utopia

Apocalypse Conflict [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Alternative disruption paths

Non-human Gradual evolution developments towards disruption & human disruptive (building on ‘present’ events trends)

Resource Scarcity Social cultural & Environmental tensions leading to Crisis/Collapse crisis/Collapse

Conflict, wars, Acritical acceptance technologically (utopian narratives) induced disaster/ of technological collapse advances

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

“future present”

! Resulting patterns & warning signals: ! elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world and are part of today’s experience. ! Beware of ‘gradual evolution towards disruption’

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Seeds

! Freedom

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Seeds

springfieldpc.dyndns.org

! capacity to relate ! Hikikomori - a state or condition of acute social withdrawal; (in Japan) the abnormal avoidance of social contact, typically by adolescent males [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Seeds

National Geographic.org

! Ecological resilience ! The great Pacific garbage patch

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

‘We are changing Earth more rapidly than we understand it’

Human-dominated ecosystems Vitousek et al. 1997

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Are we are changing humans more rapidly than we understand them?

Human-dominated humans Machine-dominated humans

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Seeds

The good, the bad, and the ugly

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Tension:

Can, need, want

! Whose agenda? Can, need, want? ! ‘Smart’, innovation, agendas for economic development and efficiency ! Humans+ http://www.cccb.org/en/exhibitions/file/human-/ 129032 ! 'questioning the systemic aspirations of economic development and efficiency: a system that desires machines with human intelligence and humans that can perform like machines' ! (From Whose Utopia, Cao Fei, 2006) ! … & many of our stories ! Science, with and for society

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H2020 Challenges a summary of the patterns (for 23 dimensions)identified in fiction and which are largely or fully absent in H2020 discourse

Source: Bina et al 2016, Table 3

[email protected] • 1/VII/16 NAEC-OECD H2020 & beyond - Caution Warning signals: High frequency/seeds ID &TD (unexplored or poorly explored)

! Technology in fiction ! used for social domination and manipulation ! use restricted to specific ends or for/by elite groups ! as socio-political instrument of control

! Science as a tool for manipulation, control and rationalization in fiction ! With and for society? can, need, want?

! Abundant scarcities in fiction: individual dignity, human values and wellbeing, what makes us human ! Dehumanization processes ! Strong homogenization

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Other Futures

• Current H2020 priorities assume that • “all innovation is socially beneficial” (Levidow and Neubaue, 2012) • NAEC (2015): • ‘To fully understand trade-offs, synergies and unintended consequences of policies’ • “grand challenges have been generally framed • in ways favouring capital-intensive technoscientific solutions, at the expense of other approaches” • even when the possibility of promoting alternative research agendas is perfectly viable. (Levidow and Neubaue, 2012) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 ‘The Upside of Down’? What ‘saves the day’ in our stories:

Love, Trust, Dignity, Identity Sentiments and emotionality > strength, determination, > relationships, connection, resilience, responsibility responsibility Idealism and creativity Reflexivity > solutions > capacity for critical thinking Nature Freedom, Security and > hope, inspiration, & protection, Privacy, Peace, solutions Equality, Justice > drivers/motivation, values & aspirations Hope > hope

Should we invest in the ‘abundant’ before it becomes scarce? [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

H2020 & beyond - Expand

9 dimensions (& 31 patterns) ID &TD

! Happiness and wellbeing (psychological conditions & QoL)

! Connectedness (interaction, physical closeness)

! Identity (belonging, collective memory/aspirations, homogenisation/subcultures)

! Systems of beliefs (values, ethics, spirituality, religion)

! Meaning of life and existence (Personal project and personal identity (who am I))

! Conceptions of the human (e. g. human nature, human condition, trans-humanism)

! Entertainment and art (self-expression, creativity, leisure, entertainment/control)

! Nature - Aesthetic/ Spiritual Value (redeeming role and to embody the notion of hope itself)

! Progress and future (ideas of progress & time, ideas of risk in the future) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 What knowledge? EU H2020 2014-15: ~6% to social sciences and humanities (EC 2015)

! 20% physical climate ! 20% impacts ! 40% mitigation and adaptation (ver small section on transformation pathways) ! policy instruments ! psychosocial underpinnings (very small and narrow nomination) ! ~ 3% ethics and equity (‘even smaller’)

http://futureearth.org/future-earth-transformations

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

GCR

Sustain’y Econo Ways of knowing Earth Science mies in transition (GCR & NAEC?) Wellbe’

! Analytical and Normative ! NAEC agendas Interdisciplinary ! Case of Future Earth actionable research

! Change paradigms deliberately ! Pluralizing the sense of what (cultural & scientific) problem and what ! Eg. Biermann, Castree, Hulme, responses O’Brien

! ! Become aware of factors Sustainability science influencing problem/responses: ! Assumptions (unconscious) ! Normative agenda: ! Disciplines, cognitive, Sustainability & Wellbeing emotional, spiritual factors ! Values, beliefs, worldviews, mindsets/habits of mind ! Identities, cultures NB. GCR – Global Change Research Barriers to transformation

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Perhaps the 21st C needs a new Archetype of the Future

Utopia

Dystopia

Anti-Utopia Collapse

Apocalypse Conflict

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Love, Trust, Dignity, Identity Sentiments and emotionality > strength, determination, > relationships, connection, resilience, responsibility responsibility Idealism and creativity Reflexivity An archetype of > solutions > capacity for critical thinking

Nature Freedom, Security and Strong unlimited growth > hope, inspiration, & protection, Privacy, Peace, solutions Equality, Justice but from a different perspective? > drivers/motivation, values & aspirations Hope > hope

! Aurelio Peccei, founder of ! NAEC on developing policies to the Club of Rome, argued ! ‘support a stronger, that: resilient, more inclusive and ! ‘human capital is the sustainable growth agenda’ most underutilized of all forms of capital’ ! Science directed to the growth of: ! Human potential, ! Can we be more than ! human capabilities and ‘efficient like machines’? individuation, (Cao Fei) ! human emancipation, creativity ! human resilience: emotions, self- regulation, coherence and ! A more inclusive notion of resilience ‘Innovation’ & Growth? ! FLAGSHIP’s scenario: Metamorphosis

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16

Know what we do NOT want

Envision what we MIGHT Concluding desire 3 steps to shape our future Invest in the knowledge we need & WANT

[email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Bina, Mateus, Pereira, Caffa (2016) The future imagined: exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options, Futures, 10.1016/j.futures.2016.05.009. July2016, OECD, Paris st

Thank you ! (Utopia, alphabet, Thomas More 1516)