© www ‘NAEC is proposing and supporting a change in objectives and perspectives’ Final NAEC Synthesis (OECD 2015) FLAGSHIP Forward Looking Driving Change Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union http://flagship-project.eu/ The Future Imagined: The art and science that shape the future Olivia Bina New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) – Lunch Seminar Series, 1st July 2016, OECD, Paris FLAGSHIP Scenarios EU 2050 FLAGSHIP Forward Looking Driving Change Fit to sustainable development Window of opportunity goals for paradigmatic change Resilience GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS High PARADIGM sustainability INERTIAL threshold Scenario Disruptive GLOBAL dynamics & PERSEVERANCE game channgers WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC foresight GROWTH Low At risk of collapse sustainability change SHIFT Anticipatory radical PARADIGM threshold Scenario to steer GLOBAL COLLAPSE 2020 2030 2050 TIME [email protected] • NAEC-OECD Sessa & Ricci1/VII/16 2015 Lead by MCRIT http://flagship-project.eu/flagship-visions/ 27 Novels 37 Films Futures Fiction 64 150 yrs [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 CONTEXT High frequency Art & Science shaping RESULTS: the future patterns • archetypes • pathways • scarcity/ abundance Future Imagined DARING: Implications for CAUTIONING: futures, possibilities, Implications for and ways of knowing science Persistent cris(e)s Anthropocene Global economic woes / NAEC Global ecological degradation / GCR + Future Challenges, Innovation & Hope Europe’s research programming / after H2020 [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Science & Research Europe’s investment [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 EU – science & foresight ! Horizon 2020 - the biggest EU Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 is an (R&I) programme ever investment in our future ! Nearly 80 billion (2014-2020) Robert Jan Smits ! In addition to the private R&I investment it mobilises Director-General Foresight DG RTD (EC 2015) Strategic Foresight: Driven by Towards the 3rd Strategic Programme of Horizon Grand Societal Challenges 2020 & supported by foresight so as to ‘shape the future’ (Boden et al. 2010: 1) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Thinking Futures After Voros 2001 [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 GSCs to ‘shape the future’ 1. Health, demographic change and wellbeing; 2. Food security, sustainable agriculture and forestry, marine and maritime and …to be able to inland water research, and the ‘shape the Bioeconomy; future’ 3. Secure, clean and efficient energy; (Boden et al. 4. Smart, green and integrated transport; 2010: 1) 5. Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials; 6. Europe in a changing world - inclusive, innovative and reflective societies; 7. Secure societies - protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens. [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Fiction [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Connecting foresight, science agendas and the arts Fiction http://europeanmovies.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/italian-movizes.jpg FLA GSCs [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Our Questions ! What are the main concerns/ hopes in futures fiction? ! Can they enrich our capacity to envision our future challenges? ! Can they enrich today’s framing of science/research priorities (GSCs)? ! What differences between fiction and GSCs, & what implications? [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Fiction’s 6 contributions to FLA H.G. Wells The Time Machine [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Approach RESULTS Analytical Content Template Core GSCs & Choice of matrix: analysis for each Challenges FLAGSHIP “texts” themes & record/text Network dimensions analysis Major patterns [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Selection criteria: “very significant and lasting impact on the public imagination” ! Relevance – Impact ! Quality ! On social imaginary: creative and symbolic dimension of ! Influence the social world ! Thematic coverage: FLAGSHIP ! Regional Diversity GSCs: ! Demography and Social ! Historical relevance Change; ! Time frame: 1815-today ! Territorial & Global Governance; ! Culturally and socially ! Economy, Research and important (reflecting cultural Innovation; attitudes) ! Environment [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 The Machine Stops Neuromancer Fahrenheit 451 Escape from L.A. The Tomorrow File The Diamond Age, Alphaville Code 46 Paris in the Twentieth or A Young Lady's La Jetée V for Vendetta Century (1863) Illustrated Primer On the Beach District 9 The Time Machine The Giver Solaris Hunger Games We Infinite Jest Logan's Run Children of Men Brave New World Cloud Atlas The Terminator Avatar The Space The Passage Dawn of the Minority Report Merchants The Windup Girl Dead Elysium (2013) The Lathe of Heaven Uglies Mad Max Vexille Stand on Zanzibar The Road RoboCop 28 days Later A Clockwork Orange Feed Blade Runner Appleseed Do Androids Dream The Swarm Brazil The Day after of Electric Sheep? La police en l'an Total Recall Tomorrow 1984 2000 Twelve Monkeys The Handmaid’s Tale Soylent Green The Fifth Element Ender's Game Verdens Undergang Waterworld Z for Zachariah aka The End of the Matrix “significant and The Stand World Gattaca lasting impact Le tunnel sous La on the public Manche imagination” Metropolis 150 years [email protected] • NAEC-OECD Things to come 1/VII/16 Approach RESULTS Analytical Content Template Core GSCs & Choice of matrix: analysis for each Challenges FLAGSHIP “texts” themes & record/text Network dimensions analysis Major patterns [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 CONTEXT High frequency Art & Science shaping RESULTS: the future patterns • archetypes • pathways • scarcity/ abundance Future Imagined DARING: CAUTIONING: Implications for Implications for futures, possibilities, science and ways of knowing Results1) Core challenges Frequent patterns http://europeanmovies.org/wp- content/uploads/2012/03/italian- movizes.jpg FLA GSCs [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 23 high frequency patterns (>25%) 1.#Individuals,#society#and#culture! 2.#Science/Technology#and#society! - “Scarcity”!+!!individual!dignity,!human!values!and! - Advanced!technology!(42,2%)! wellbeing!(50,0%)! - Technology#as#a#socioGpoli<cal#instrument#of# - Dehumanizing!processes!(39,1%)! control#(39,1%)# - Disrespect!of!Human!Rights!(37,5%)! - Technology#use#restricted#to#specific#ends#or# - Strong#homogeniza<on#of#iden<<es#(37,5%)# for/by#elite#groups##(39,1%)# - Social#control#and#subjec<ve#distress#(26,6%)# - Technology!used!for!social!dominaMon!and! manipulaMon!(26,6%)! - Science!as!a!tool!for!manipulaMon,!control!and! raMonalizaMon!(26,6%)! 4.#Environment#GTechnology#(vs#Nature)! 3.#Society#and#social#change! - (Near)impossibility#to#breathe#in#open#air#(39,1%)# - Socioeconomic!discriminaMon!(based!on! - Technology!used!for!control!of!nature!(39,1%)! property,!educaMon!or!other)!(34,4%)! - Extreme!urbanizaMon!and!verMcal!density!(34,4%)! - High!straMficaMon!and!unequal!socieMes!(32,8%)! - Interconnectedness#and#resul<ng#fragility#(34,4%)# - Existence!of!resistance!and!opposiMon! - Species#ex<nc<on#and#decline#in#biodiversity# movements!(31,3%)! (34,4%)# - Women#inequality#(31,3%)# - AestheMc/!Spiritual!Value!of!Nature!(31,3%)! - Stra<fica<on#of#workers#&#occupa<ons#(28,1%)# - Food!scarcity,!replacement!&!lack!of!choice!(28,1%)! - Absence#of#consump<on#(26,6%)# [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Future societies: labour/jobs (24 texts) ! No freedom in the choice of jobs ! Genetically manipulated and artificial workforces ! Fit for purpose: moral, age, sex, biological characteristics, caste systems (Metropolis-1927, We-1931, The Handmaid’s Tale-1985, the Giver-1993) ! Task specific (Cloud Atlas-2004; Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep-1968; The Wind-up Girl-2009) ! Artificial augmentation of skills (RoboCop-1987; Avatar-2009; Elysium-2013) ! Slavery and loss of individual rights ! Metropolis-1927; The Space Merchants-1953; Twelve Monkeys-1995 [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Future societies: highly stratified & unequal (32%) ! In some of these texts individuals are ‘produced’ and conditioned for specific social positions, as is the case described in Brave New World: ! ‘I suppose Epsilons don't really mind being Epsilons,’ she said aloud. ‘Of course they don't. How can they? They don't know what it's like being anything else. We'd mind, of course. But then we've been differently conditioned.’ (chapter 5) ! Or biological stratification in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? : ! ‘classed as biologically unacceptable, a menace to the pristine heredity of the race. Once pegged as special, a citizen, even if accepting sterilization, dropped out of history. He ceased, in effect, to be part of mankind.’ (p.15) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Future societies: Consumption (31 texts) ! Radical consumption & Absence of consumption ! polarizing, never neutral, predominantly negative in terms of human wellbeing ! Promotion of commodification and consumerism ! For profit/control/manipulation (Brave new World-1932; Infinite Jest-1996; Feed-2002) ! Absence of consumption ! these societies tend to be totalitarian (the Machine Stops-1909; Things to Come-1936; We-1931; Brave New World-1932) ! Or end of consumption ! due to collapse (the Stand-1978; The Handmaids Tale-1985; The Road-2006) ! Or to impoverishment (The Hunger Games-2012) [email protected] • NAEC-OECD 1/VII/16 Core C.3) Future societies ! Vivid illustrations of ongoing critiques from the perspectives of wellbeing, psychological and ethical implications ! Erosion of human