he long 1988 presidential campaign seems to have been underway for years, but its main events are yet to come. It is a campaign about success and succes- sion: how should 's Tadministrations be judged; what comes next? If Reagan had managed to win pas- sage of a constitutional amendment allowing presidents to serve a third term, he might not be its first benefici- ary. To imagine him running once again is to think not only of his continued popularity but of the political weaknes- ses of the current administration, in which Reagan himself seems not en- tirely present. (Reagan's approval rat- ing in public opinion polls hovers around 50%, below what he sustained in earlier years.) Yet those who have opposed the policies of the Reagan administrations face an emerging irony. In the 1980s, many have consoled themselves with the idea that Reagan's popularity has more to do with his personal qualities than with his policies. In his final year, both Reagan's power and personal popularity have declined, yet Reagan- ism still frames political debate.

Unhappiness with Reagan doesn't trans- late cleanly into support for another course. Why? What has Reagan accom- plished? In foreign policy, the principle of an assertive American political and milit- ary role has been firmly re-established. The way is open for the Reagan administration to register a major victory in pressing the merits of its view that in relations with the Soviet Union, high levels of American military spending and a willingness to confront the Soviet leadership are less rather than more dangerous policies. They reduce the scope for Soviet interven- tion, and increase the likelihood that Soviet leaders will negotiate seriously on arms control. (Thus, the argument goes, putting American missiles into Europe opened the way for an agree- ment removing both Soviet and Amer- ican missiles.) The right wing of the Republican Party may taint this victory by with- holding support from the arms control agreements in process, but Democratic support will likely guarantee their Reaganism ratification. In Soviet-American rela- tions, Reagan's course has gained broad political support, though this support does not mean enthusiasm for For Ever? continued huge increases in military spending. Reagan is on the wane, badly damaged In other areas, Reagan has helped reframe debate without getting all he by Irangate. His presidency has less wants. In thinking about Nicaragua, it than a year to run. David Plotke looks at is easy to focus on Reagan's embarrass- ments and failures (which are real what might happen in November's enough). This neglects the degree to presidential election which the argument is cast in terms of whether it is in the interest of the United States to support the Contras. It is assumed, with the exception of

10 MARXISM TODAY JANUARY 1988 perhaps the left third of the Democra- services. era of unfettered market relations, tic Party, that this is mainly a tactical Buttressing this commonsense is a militant cultural conservatism, and issue; insofar as principle is involved, recognition of the dual problem of huge ever-increasing assertions of American American intervention is acceptable. budget deficits and severe trade imba- power against the Soviet Union and Thus where a regime has much less lances. Whatever the real relation various forms of national and social legitimacy than Nicaragua's govern- between the two problems, it is easier radicalism. If this was to be the Reagan ment (for any combination of ideologic- to attack the first through spending revolution, it didn't happen. al, ethnic, and religious reasons, eg, cuts than to find simple means of Yet there was a Reagan transforma- Afghanistan or Angola), American sup- dealing with the second - letting the tion - a deep shift in political priorities, port for insurgent forces is accepted. dollar fall is not enough when goods a refocusing of public discourse - in Reagan has not made Americans remain overpriced for their quality. both foreign and domestic policy. It has dream his dreams, but he has gained a Was the growing deficit tolerated not been enough to satisfy the leaders 'In his final renewed public willingness to use partly as a means of creating political of the far Right, who complain inces- year, both American power widely, to assume that obstacles to expanding government santly about the betrayals committed in Reagan's it ought to be used actively. The content activities? Or is the deficit instead the name of pragmatism. Though their of this activism is, if predictable, still (from a Reaganite perspective) mainly complaining provides a certain amount power and complex: supporting democrats against an economic problem with some benign of political comfort, to trust it as an personal weakened tyrants (Aquino/Marcos), unintended consequences for social honest report misses how far to the popularity supporting insurgencies against more and economic policy? The first is right Reagan has taken the country. have or less popular leftist governments, in probably partly true; in either case, addition to supporting armies and Reagan's legacy will not only frame If Reagan has succeeded in changing some declined, yet gangsters against popular forces debate but directly constrain spending policies, modifying the direction of Reaganism (Haiti). Despite the humiliation of the in the next few years. institutions, and framing debate, the still frames Iran/Contra affair, and continued fears hat about the social issues, next question arises: who succeeds political of Reaganite adventurism, the adminis- so-called, which have in- Reagan? Will we have Reaganism tration has recast policy debates and spired the religious Right? without Reagan, or a sharp break? debate' marginalised those critics of US power Measured by the far The political forces interested in who demand that its use be justified WRight's own statements of maximal turning Reaganism into a durable according to very stringent criteria objectives, there have been few Reaga- regime, centred in the Republican (eg, George McGovern, the victim of nite successes, especially in changing Party, can be viewed both as signs of Nixon's 1972 landslide.) laws. And Reagan's failure to nominate what has happened, and as combatants a Supreme Court justice committed to in the conflicts now underway. In economic policy, there is little respect the political and constitutional agenda The long-anticipated demise of liberal for 'supply side' economics or for other of the far Right seems to mark a Republicanism seems really to have nostrums which floated through the decisive limit to current far-right happened in presidential politics. No 1980s. Reagan's response to the sharp efforts. Yet the Right's standards are one is running to the left of Robert Dole decline in the stock market in the 1987 so high as to obscure real shifts. While (Senate minority leader, from Kansas), crash was taken as painfully inept. Yet basic policy changes have been modest who well into the 1970s was clearly whether or not 'by accident' vis-a-vis - poor enforcement of civil rights law, identified with the conservative wing Reagan's policies, the 1980s have been but no profound changes in it; hostility of the party. A significant candidacy economically good enough to provide to feminism, but few legal changes - like that of John Anderson in 1980, broad support for the government in the terms of discussion have shifted in appealing both to liberal Republicans power. There has been wide, sustained favour of the Right. Reagan's oppo- and centrist Democrats, seems hard economic growth which, despite its nents have been a little lucky, spared even to imagine. severe inequalities and dependence on what might become really terrible t the same time, far-right low-wage labour, has generated a large political defeats by the sectarianism Reaganites are hopeless as volume of jobs, with low inflation and and obduracy of a far Right which has presidential candidates rates of unemployment which if still trouble compromising or even recog- (though not in state and substantial are not perceived as scan- nising partial victories. Alocal races). The three contenders - dalous. In these years, household in- The abortion issue is a troubled Jack Kemp (a member of Congress comes have - for roughly 3/4 of the example. The full programme of the far from Buffalo, New York); Pierre population - either increased or held Right - illegalising all abortions - has DuPont (yes, that family, now as always steady. (This prosperity is compatible zero prospects. Less than a fifth of the running Delaware); and Pat Robertson with declining real wages insofar as population favours it. Nonetheless, (never elected to office, an articulate there are more workers per household.) public opinion has become less suppor- television preacher) - will be lucky to n presidential elections, recent tive of a women's right to choose, and survive the first primaries. Even economic tendencies matter a somewhat more willing to accept res- choosing one of them as a vice- great deal. Barring a steep slide trictions on the availability of abortion. presidential candidate carries major into a deep recession - which A very strong majority exists for risks - risks which Dole or Vice- woulId have to begin by summer to have keeping abortion legal under some President Bush may be tempted to run major electoral effects - Reagan's conditions (especially for medical in order to sustain the mobilisation of administrations are still perceived as reasons and in cases of rape or incest); the substantial constituencies these having done a reasonably good job. poll data also show only minority candidates represent. This - tempered - approval is accompa- support for the current legal situation. The paper majority in favour of res- George Bush and Robert Dole are nied, again, by a new political frame: credible successors, positioned slightly there is great suspicion of claims that tricting abortion rights is just that, however, and likely to remain political- to the left of Reagan while claiming government policies (to create jobs, for (and intending) fidelity to his vision example) could easily make the current ly imaginary because the far Right has no intention of compromising its basic and policies. They are strong candi- situation better rather than worse. The dates, with a good chance of winning if absolute rejection of government in- position or even its tactics enough to do serious business with those who view (a) the decline in the stock market and tervention which some Reaganites the trade deficit do not trigger a major hoped for never happened, and won't. abortion as acceptable only under specified conditions, but who fear that recession; (b) no dramatic episodes Yet a new commonsense limits what undermine the quasi-detente emerging can be proposed as a reasonable public the far Right will make any form of choice impossible. with the Soviet Union; and (c) the effort, even while wide support exists teeming mini-scandals which surround for government action to maintain In sum, fully Reaganite visions have the administration do not condense into employment and to provide social not materialised. There will be no new a single major scandal. It will take no

II MARXISM TODAY JANUARY 1988 miracles for these conditions to be met, Carter and Mondale were trounced: a Claims that 'if Jackson were not black, in which case Bush or Dole can draw on post-New Deal liberalism which would he would be recognised as the front- the political assets generated by: rela- restate historic commitments to wel- runner' are doubly wrong: (1) if Jack- tive economic success, peace (ie, few farist social policy, define a more son were not black - whatever that Americans directly at war), social restrained role for the direct use of could mean! - he would not be the order (ie, gross inequities but no riots), public power, and encourage a new front-runner, because he would prob- and their very impressive resumes and model of economic development. Most ably have significantly less support evident capacity to stay afloat in of the 'rethinking' which has occurred than he now has from black voters; (2) top-level national politics. has focused on what were already his actual political positions are far to ush has a better chance of modest egalitarian commitments; thus the left of those of most Democrats at winning the Republican the claimants to 'new' ideas within the this time (and also to the left of most nomination than does Dole, Democratic Party are, unfortunately, 'This is the blacks, which gives him a good deal of although the vice-president more on its centre and right than its formula for a room to manoeuvre while retaining has a large capacity for self- left. stable black support). It is wishful to view the destruction. Dole would do much better It is hard to array the Democratic 40% of Democrats who decline to make in attracting Democratic votes, but it is presidential candidates on any single succession, a choice among the six declared hard to imagine him running effective- axis, but a composite image of their with Bush candidates as likely to provide him with ly with a far-right candidate for vice economic, foreign, and social policies or Dole enough support to even approach a president, especially as his personal would look like this (starting on the left fashioning majority of the Democratic vote - and attitudes and family life (his wife, and moving rightwards): Civil rights this is known by all the candidates, Elizabeth Dole, was secretary of trans- activist Jesse Jackson (20); Illinois their own including Jackson. portation and is a highly effective Senator Paul Simon (10); Mas- Reaganism to A different problem concerns Jack- politician) seem suspiciously modern. sachusetts Governor sustain a son's relations with Jews. Widely- (15); Missouri Congressman Richard right- reported anti-semitic episodes in his What about alternatives to Reaganism? It Gephardt (5); ex-Governor of Arizona centre 1984 campaign are not forgottten, isn't 1984, when Democratic prospects Bruce Babbitt (2) and Tennessee Sena- especially as Jackson's efforts to make seemed so grim from the start. To tor Albert Gore (7). regime into amends have been clumsy and unper- perceive openness is not just wishful, it The numbers refer to rough shares of the next suasive. The stakes are very high, is not necessary to walk once again the Democratic primary electorate, as century' going beyond the substantial electoral through a depressing story toward a of the beginning of 1988 - and are of role of American Jews. A candidate familiar conclusion. (How familiar; course volatile. Note that more than who has never won office or directly After 1964, only one Democrat has been 40% of Democratic voters are unde- made public policy, Jackson relies very elected president.) cided, a figure which is reasonably heavily on a moral authority derived Still, it is a difficult situation. Some interpreted as a negative judgment of from the legacy of the civil rights problems are structural. Demographic the quality of the group as a whole. movement to present himself as more changes have been strengthening the Including the absent candidates it than an interest group candidate. This most Republican and weakening the might look like this: Jackson; Simon; makes him very vulnerable to any most Democratic parts of the country Cuomo; Dukakis; Bradley; Gephardt; challenge to his moral character and for several decades, and with modest Babbitt; Gore and Nunn. sincerity. The Republicans, of course, exceptions they are still underway. A ackson and Simon are now are pleased for Jackson to be promin- clear sign of these processes: there is firmly in the domestic tradition ent in the Democratic campaign, both no viable Democratic candidate for of New Deal liberalism, with because of his leftism and his race. 1988 (and probably not even for 1992), Jackson recalling its most (Again, the Democrats are lucky - old from California, Texas, or Florida, the Jaggressively populist moments. Duka- fashioned white racism within impor- large states which typify recent social kis, Gephardt and Babbitt are vaguely tant Republican constituencies seems and economic development. In econo- 'neo-liberal', although with modest ex- to prevent that party from really taking mic and social terms, there has been a ceptions (many of which disappeared in advantage of the political opportunities decline in previously Democratic con- the debacle of Gary Hart's campaign), created by a dual process of massive stituencies (except for the very poor, neo-liberal has turned out to mean less multi-racial, multi-ethnic immigratioin whose ranks have recently expanded.) liberal rather than new. By historic on both coasts, and significant socio- These broad tendencies do not wholly standards, Gore is a southern liberal; economic differentiation within the determine the outcome in any particu- he is now on the right/centre of a party black population.) lar year, of course, especially when any which has lost most of its (George) The outline of a Democratic spectrum Republican candidate will have real Wallaceite populist/racist Right to the highlights a second issue, perhaps the liabilities. Yet the limited Democratic Republicans or non-voting. central one for 1988. There is a prospects are suggested by the appa- wrenching conflict between two diffe- rent decision of perhaps the three What does this sketch say about succes- rent notions of what coalition (the wide potentially strongest Democratic pres- sion? First, there is no hidden Left; to distribution of support makes clear idential candidates. Senators Sam Nunn the left of Jesse Jackson's campaign that a coalition is necessary) will be of Georgia and Bill Bradley of New there is nothing of significance in electorally strongest. One course is a Jersey and Governor Mario Cuomo of presidential politics. This will allow centre-right alliance - a Dukakis (pres- New York have all declared themselves Jackson to continue to move toward the ident)/Gore (vice-president) ticket, for non-candidates (although Cuomo may Democratic centre without much fear example. This choice has two claims to be willing to be anointed). Each deci- of losing his current support. wisdom: the usual positional logic of a sion has its particularities, but taken Yet even a more centrist Jackson political spectrum, assuming that the together the common absence of these candidacy is, for much of the party, Left will be loyal and reaching out to strong candidates amounts to a judg- problematic. To some extent this is the Right; and recognition of the ment of the quality of the opportunity simply a matter of 'racial discomfort'. impossibility of winning without mak- presented by 1988. Sometimes it reflects a calculation that ing inroads into what have been reg- This judgment might be wrong, but it racism within the electorate makes him ularly Republican parts of the South will take some luck for the Democrats an impossible choice. There are other and West. to make it. By and large, Democrats issues, though. While Jackson's success The other course is a centre-left from right to left have not used the comes from his ability to fuse two alliance, as in a Dukakis-Simon ticket Reagan years well. They have notably political identities - black interest- (or, less likely, Dukakis-Jackson). This failed to frame more than fragments of group politics and radical democratic choice can claim wisdom in recognising the alternative course which was wide- politics - yet both are problematic in the need for a weakened party to ly recognised to be necessary after 1988. generate the fullest possible mobilisa-

12 MARXISM TODAY JANUARY 1988 tion of its strongest supporters. It is Reagan coalition without dividing corruption, etc. hard to imagine how any such mobilisa- Democrats. Still, predictions are irresistible. The tion could occur without an energetic, This means stressing Reaganite now-normal presidential politics prom- full critique of Reaganism, especially failures in education, or the ises a Republican victory, much less regarding the social inequities which market and institutional failures which overwhelming than Reagan's, with the have proliferated in the 1980s. Its have generated the problem of Democrats as a strong regional party in danger is regional isolation, even given homelessness, or the ongoing public the Northeast, upper Midwest, and Jackson's strength in the South. policy failures which can be summa- parts of the Pacific Coast. This is the f the two choices, the second rised as the absence of anything even formula for a stable succession, with is (debatably) a better bet approaching a family policy in this Bush or Dole fashioning their own electorally. Because Repub- country. If these issues are not wholly Reaganism to sustain a right-centre lican strength means that all 'Even the used up for immediate tactical pur- regime into the next century. Oareas of the country are now contested, most poses, they may even get some of the et Democratic prospects it makes sense to start with a coalition promising steady attention they deserve after are much better than they which can at least be counted on to 1988. have recently been, and make a good showing in core areas of candidate in Rethinking is never easy, and given several Democratic candi- Democratic strength. A centre-right June might the stakes, there is always a temptation Ydates could be elected. Perhaps Cuomo Democratic candidacy might simply explode in to hope that rethinking will not really (if he enters the race) or Dukakis might lose everywhere. September be necessary because a crisis will be able to combine a critique of when change everything and break the poli- Reaganite selfishness with a promise of Making this choice is mainly what the tical power of the current regime. In economic growth convincingly enough Democratic primary campaign is ab- it is revealed the US, this is precisely the type of to win back some of the traditionally out, in a context in which the disaster of that he was crisis which has not emerged, even Democratic voters who now routinely 1984 serves as a stark reminder of the seen with his though no month goes by without the vote for Republican presidents, and to inadequacy of a style of politics which unfolding of a new 'crisis'. persuade new voters that whatever simply names a series of constituencies shirt on There is no reasonable way to predict Reagan may or may not have accom- and calls them a coalition. Mondale's backwards at the outcome of the November election plished, Reaganism now means cultural failure shows what happens to a a Grateful if to the usual uncertainties one adds and social stagnation. Seeing normal nostalgic left-liberal politics without Dead the intense examination of candidates' politics as Republican politics sharpens programme or vision; thus the Demo- careers and personal lives which has at least one choice: if the task of those cratic failure to generate genuinely concert in become a new norm. Even the most who have opposed Reagan is one of new political or economic ideas (which 1969' promising candidate in June might taking advantage of opportunities to do not arise simply because they are explode in September when it is avert an otherwise likely defeat, then needed) is all the more painful. Given revealed that he (and this year it will the appropriate virtues are not caution this vacuum, there will be plenty of certainly be a he) slept with one of the and patience in waiting to succeed him fundamentalist declarations of New Bakkers, or that he was seen with his - as though Reaganism would pass like Deal faith, and a frantic search for shirt on backwards at a Grateful Dead a dream - but initiative, creativity, and issues which promise to cut into the concert in 1969. Not to speak of a willingness to risk new approaches.

13 MARXISM TODAY JANUARY 1988