VOLUME IX, NUM BER 3, SUMMER 2009

A Journal of Political Thought and Statesmanship

William CONSERVATISM’S CHALLENGE Joseph Voegeli: Essays by Charles R. Kesler and Henry Olsen Epstein: e Democrats Mark Helprin & the Unions vs. the Digital Barbarians Bret Stephens: Angelo Alonzo L. Codevilla’s Hamby: Advice to e New Deal War Presidents Once More Greg Forster: Steve Forbes: e Morality e Great of Capitalism Ination Susan D. Paul A. Rahe: Collins: Rediscovering Aristotle Debates Herodotus Socrates

John David F. Forte Derbyshire: ≥ Kipling in India Michael M. Uhlmann: Judging the Judges

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FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK Charles R. Kesler: The Red Beating Heart:page 3

CORRESPONDENCE: page 4 Ramesh Ponnuru, David Frum, William Voegeli, Harry V. Jaffa, and more.

ESSAYS William Voegeli: Look Out for the Union Label: page 11 Henry Olsen: The Reemerging Republican Majority?:page 29 Liberals rejoin the picket line. Political demography and the future of conservatism.

Charles R. Kesler: The Conservative Challenge:page 21 Greg Forster: Sacred Enterprise: page 38 The Reagan Revolution vs. the Obama Revolution. Capitalism is not only about money; it’s about morality.

REVIEWS OF BOOKS

Joseph Epstein: Against the Virtual Life: page 8 Michael M. Uhlmann: The Liberals’ Constitution:page 36 Digital Barbarism: A Writer’s Manifesto, by Mark Helprin. Living Constitution, Dying Faith: Progressivism and the New Science of Jurisprudence, by Bradley C.S. Watson. Alonzo Hamby: FDR’s Long Shadow: page 16 New Deal or Raw Deal? How FDR’s Economic Legacy Has Damaged America, Paul A. Rahe: Rediscovering Herodotus: page 42 by Burton W. Folsom, Jr.; and Traitor to His Class: The Privileged Life The Landmark Herodotus: The Histories, edited by Robert B. Strassler; and Radical Presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, by H.W. Brands. Histories, Book VIII, by Herodotus, edited by A.M. Bowie; Histories, Book IX, by Herodotus, edited by Michael A. Flower Steve Forbes: Lowering the Boom: page 19 and John Marincola; and A Commentary on Herodotus, Books I–IV, The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of by David Asheri, Alan Lloyd, and Aldo Corcella, American Affluence, by Robert J. Samuelson. edited by Oswyn Murray.

Bret Stephens: Statecraft as Warcraft: page 27 Susan D. Collins: The Beautiful and the Good:page 45 Advice to War Presidents: A Remedial Course in Statecraft, Aristotle’s Dialogue with Socrates: On the Nicomachean Ethics, by Angelo M. Codevilla. by Ronna Burger.

David F. Forte: The Closing of the Judicial Mind:page 34 John Derbyshire: Rudyard’s Adventures in Wonderland: page 47 Unrestrained: Judicial Excess and the Mind of the American Lawyer, Kipling Sahib: India and the Making of Rudyard Kipling, 1865–1900, by Robert F. Nagel; and How Judges Think, by Richard A. Posner. by Charles Allen.

PARTHIAN SHOT Mark Helprin: K-Street Consultants’ Memo to the Somali Pirates: page 50

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Essay by Henry Olsen The Reemerging Republican Majority?

ixeira

specially in a democratic age, states- suburbs eventually became home to nearly a indulgence,” while Republicans regarded it as an men are careful students of social trends. majority of the American population. “expression of individual well-being.” He won- EThey know that the art of political leader- Thus the key political question increasingly be- dered whether the suburban future would be ship can’t afford to ignore the science of political came: who are the suburbanites and what do they guided “by private enterprise or by public plan.” demography, even though the former can never want? When Reagan was elected in 1980, most White’s alternatives were actually two sides be reduced to the latter. Conservatives who seek suburbanites were married with children. They of the same coin. Suburbanites recoiled from a revival in their movement must exhibit similar were overwhelmingly Christian; overt secularism Barry Goldwater’s assertive individualism, but wisdom and closely examine how America has was not yet a mass force. Women had begun to they rejected the Great Society’s excessive faith changed since the glory days of President Ron- enter the workforce in large numbers in the early in government, too. This temperament reflected ald Reagan, and how those changes pose new 1970s, but the typical suburbanite still lived in the socioeconomic realities of suburban life. challenges to, and may impose new limits on, a traditional, one-male-earner household. And Just as suburbs stand between the urban and conservatism today. nearly all were white. The Hispanic population, the rural, in 1980 suburbanites’ attitudes about though growing, constituted only about 2% of economics and government occupied a middle Suburbia the electorate. Asians composed an even smaller ground between the pro-spending ethos of the share, and African-Americans lived largely in the cities and the anti-spending ethic of rural Amer- he conservative ascendancy of the cities and the rural South. The cultural divisions ica (which made an exception for farm subsidies, Reagan years centered in the middle that are now omnipresent were only beginning to to be sure). Tclass. It wasn’t just any middle class, appear. The typical suburbanite had been raised Suburbanites derived their wealth from the though; conservative strength was concentrated in a less individualistic time between the 1930s private sector. They tended to work in private in the modern suburb. Commonplace today, and the early ’60s. The cultural politics of the sector jobs, shopped at private sector stores, and suburbs revolutionized American life. In 1940, baby boomer generation did not yet dominate; consumed private sector goods. They moved to 23% of Americans lived on farms; by 1980, only the oldest boomer was only 34. the suburbs to enjoy a better standard of liv- 4% did. Big cities declined too: between 1950 In The Making of the President, 1960, Theo- ing than they could in the city or town. Policies and 1980, cities in the North and Midwest lost dore H. White had noted the suburban rise and which disturbed this economic dynamism, such millions of residents either to their own suburbs asked “what was to be done with this new form as high taxes or inflation, were unpopular. But or to those in the Sunbelt. Though they began of civilization?” He observed that Democrats underneath this private consumption lay various as a small, largely upper class phenomenon, the tended to view suburban life as a “torrent of self- public goods. Suburbanites drove their private

Claremont Review of Books w Summer 2009 Page 29 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm cars on public roads. They and their children Reagan governed California in accord with sub- electoral votes). George H.W. Bush received were mostly educated in public schools, and their urban ideals. He cut welfare and combated the 53% of the 1988 popular vote on the same de- property was protected by police. Even their pri- disorder flowing from the student rebellions, but mographic lines as Reagan. Most striking to the vate consumption was made possible in part by left major public programs like education and modern eye, however, is the breadth of Bush’s public insurance—Social Security and Medi- road construction largely untouched. Though suburban base. The vice president carried the care—which reduced the need to save for old he tried and failed to limit the growth of gov- suburban counties of most of the major cities in age. Policies threatening these underpinnings of ernment spending and taxes, he never sought the North and Midwest. He won overwhelm- comfortable suburban life were unpopular, too. to repeal the vast public edifice constructed by ing majorities in suburban Southern California In addition, suburbanites craved ordered predecessors of both parties. As he often said, and in the bedroom communities of gigantic liberty. They valued the uniform, sprawling de- he was a former New Deal Democrat who had Los Angeles County. He carried Miami’s Palm velopments so disparaged by critics like Lewis voted four times for Franklin Roosevelt. FDR’s Beach County with 56% and swept to a 61% vic- Mumford. These were new types of communi- legacy was safe in his hands. tory in Fairfax County, Virginia. ties that permitted more individual freedom Reagan also had an actor’s appreciation for his and less social supervision than their parents audience. By 1977, he sensed that he could build The Republican Predicament had known. Grateful for their single-family de- on his suburban base by reaching out to religious tached homes, they supported police and ral- voters worried about changing mores. And so he oday, politics looks very different. lied to “law and order” campaigns. On interna- proposed a “New Republican Party” comprising In the 2008 presidential election, Sena- tional matters, they were wary of intervention Ttor John McCain carried none of the but supportive of a strong foreign policy, wary suburban counties surrounding New York, Phil- of involvement in Vietnam but fearful of Soviet adelphia, Chicago, Detroit, or Boston, and he expansionism. Politicians who ignored major el- Democrats are strongest lost most of the St. Louis and Cleveland suburbs. ements of this underlying consensus did so at in the most rapidly He lost all of Southern California’s suburban ar- their peril. eas except rock-ribbed Orange County, which he These trends did not go unnoticed. Kevin expanding segments of carried with a record low 50%. Palm Beach went Phillips, in his 1969 masterpiece, The Emerging 61%-38% for Senator Barack Obama; Fairfax’s Republican Majority, argued that the New Deal the population, and every 60%-39% margin for Obama delivered Virginia coalition was being replaced by a conservative, four years natural growth to the Democrats for the first time since 1964. Republican majority arising from the “immense McCain’s share of the national popular vote middle class impetus of Sun Belt and suburbia,” in these groups can be also signaled trouble. On the surface, his total, fueled by opposition to the tumults of the 1960s expected to add one or 45.6%, seemed respectable. Many Republican and a liberalism that had gone “beyond pro- presidential candidates had received less in re- grams taxing the few for the benefit of the many two points to Obama’s cent memory. But all of those candidates save (the New Deal) to programs taxing the many on one, Barry Goldwater, had run races with se- behalf of the few (the Great Society).” margin of victory. How rious third-party candidates. Goldwater aside, Phillips’s prognostication carried two im- can Republicans possibly McCain’s showing was the worst GOP result plicit caveats. First, this emerging conservatism in a two-party race since Wendell Willkie gar- was moderate. Nixon won the 1968 presidential find their way back? nered 44.8% in 1940. To look at it another way, election by winning virtually all major suburban Obama’s 52.9% was the second-highest for a counties outside the South, most of which Gold- non-incumbent Democrat in American history, water had lost by large margins in 1964. He and both economic and social conservatives, united trailing only FDR’s 57.4% in 1932. his successors had to reassure these voters that around the principle of human freedom. This It’s tempting to blame the 2008 election the GOP would not undo popular programs new party emerged full blown in 1980. His vic- results on the times. The September financial such as Social Security, Medicare, and aid to ed- tory—only the second popular vote majority for crash would have hurt any incumbent party, ucation. The other caveat concerned the wealth- a GOP president since 1956—rested squarely on particularly among suburbanites whose portfo- iest and most educated of these voters. Even in the suburbs, crucially augmented by the new cul- lios plummeted and whose home equity nose- 1968, residents of the most prosperous suburbs turally conservative voters. He carried virtually dived. Not surprisingly, McCain’s decline from were turning away from Nixon and the GOP. every major suburban county by large margins, George W. Bush’s 2004 vote share was often Phillips noted but dismissed this trend among while also making inroads into working-class larger in congressional districts most affected those he called “silk-stocking Megalopolitans.” Catholic urban communities and evangelical by the housing collapse, e.g., in Central and Any losses among the elites, he argued, would Southern and Midwestern rural towns. Reagan’s Southern California and Nevada. Nor should be more than offset by gains among the middle new party was not evenly balanced between its one ignore the role events played in elevating and working classes. parts, however. The bulk of its voters were still one set of concerns above another. In the 1990s, suburbanites seeking prosperity and security. with the world at peace and economic growth The Reagan Coalition His governing emphasis was accordingly placed solid, voters cared more about cultural issues. there: cutting taxes and strengthening national Clinton’s triangulation—for the V-chip and onald reagan was the ideal candi- defense came first; social issues, except for judi- school uniforms but also for abortion rights, date to satisfy suburban aspirations. As cial appointments, came later, if at all. against tax hikes but also against cutting gov- Ra young Michael Barone wrote in 1965, This coalition remained at the center of ernment programs—played well in the sub- RReagan already emphasized “threats felt by av- American politics for the next two presiden- urbs, especially among the “soccer moms” who erage men with mortgaged bungalows, two-car tial elections. In 1984, Reagan was reelected by briefly became the national rage. After Septem- garages, and bought-on-time lawn furniture.” large margins (58.8% of the popular vote; 525 ber 11, voters cared more about international

Claremont Review of Books w Summer 2009 Page 30 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm affairs and security than they had in 1996 and opments created a mass affluent class—the -Mc of them qualify. A party platform that does not 2000. President Bush thus did well in the sub- Mansion set satirized by David Brooks in Bo- prominently address the moral concerns ani- urbs, especially among the “security moms” his bos in Paradise (2000)—which had been on the mating these voters will not unite the base. But campaign wooed. But even the 9/11 effect did political sidelines in 1980. Phillips sneered at social conservatives cannot win by themselves. not help everywhere. Bush’s 2004 vote share in- those he called “silk stocking Megalopolitans,” Social and economic conservatives need to real- creased most strikingly in the suburbs of New but today’s non-Southern suburbs are politically ize that Reagan’s vision of a new party has fi- York City most affected by 9/11. His share dominated by their sentiments. nally come to pass. Both halves of the party of the vote remained stagnant, or dropped, in Nor is it hard to see why culture joined eco- are roughly in balance, and neither can succeed many highly-educated suburban districts out- nomics as an important political issue. The baby without the other. They must hang together, or side the South. boomer generation defines itself by its “culture,” they will most assuredly hang separately. and by the mid-1990s the typical suburbanite The question is whether a united base will, The Democratic Resurgence was someone who had become an adult in the or can be made to, appeal to suburbanites out- ’60s and ’70s. Once this class made up a large side the Deep South. Neither a presidential nor he suburban drift away from the percentage of the electorate, lifestyle issues rose a congressional majority can be formed solely GOP proceeded steadily throughout in political importance. Baby boomers who em- from Southern and rural states. Even in the Tthe 1990s and the present decade. The braced the social changes of their youth sought South, Northern-style suburbs—as in North- 2008 results largely conformed to this new polit- to defend and extend them; those who opposed ern Virginia, North Carolina’s Research Tri- ical-demographic pattern, one identified and an- them were equally determined to defend tradi- angle, and Central Florida’s I-4 Corridor—now alyzed in a book that looked out of place in 2001 tional mores. Hence began the now common- hold their state’s balance of electoral power. but soon proved prescient: John Judis and Ruy place demographic correlation between voting Nixon’s and Reagan’s successful suburban Teixeira’s The Emerging Democratic Majority. behavior and degree of religious observance. outreach required a subtle appreciation for The authors, two men of the Left, argued The growing divide between religious and secu- what American suburbanites wanted, economi- provocatively that demographic changes would lar voters arose not because religious Americans cally and culturally. A successful modern sub- usher in a Democratic majority by the end of sought to impose theocracy or because secular urban outreach requires a similar appreciation. the decade. They noted that Americans were in- Americans sought to stamp out belief. Rather, Suburban cultural life is nowadays a mixture creasingly college-educated and producing ideas modern Americans increasingly embraced or of the traditional and the liberated. Suburban rather than making things. Such voters valued rejected a specific faith, even religion itself, be- men and women may have had liaisons prior to economic growth but also “embraced a libertar- cause of its stance on cultural matters. marriage, but once they tie the knot they have ian ethic of personal life.” Meanwhile, women, As a result, the Republican presidential elec- extremely low divorce rates. Women work, but particularly single or college-educated women, torate is now tilted toward culturally conserva- most work part-time and juggle motherhood were flocking to the Democratic Party, and non- tive voters much more than it was in the 1980s. and professional life in a harried, unsatisfying whites were voting Democratic in overwhelm- McCain won 55%-43% among the 40% of voters combination. Though they may have experi- ing numbers, also. Judis and Teixeira contend- who said they attend religious services at least mented with marijuana in their youth, subur- ed that all three groups were becoming larger weekly. He lost 57%-42% among those who said ban parents are fiercely anti-drug today. Most parts of the population and would soon be large they attend occasionally, and he was clobbered importantly, they are by no means complete enough to produce a new political order. 67%-30% among those who never attend. moral agnostics, however much they may pro- Their predictions were eerily accurate. They To make the point more starkly, McCain fess to be “nonjudgmental.” They have no prob- projected that minorities, who cast 10% of the carried white evangelicals 74%-24%. They con- lem teaching their children the virtues of hon- nation’s votes in 1972 and 19% in 2000, would stituted 26% of the electorate, and fully 42% of esty, marital fidelity, and hard work. cast a quarter by decade’s end. The 2008 exit poll his vote. Non-believers, on the other hand, cast This cultural message is consistent with the confirmed that non-whites composed 26% of the 12% of the votes and went solidly for Obama, rhetoric of individual choice, which dominates electorate; McCain lost these voters by 79% to 75%-23%. Jews and believers who are neither the suburban mentality. The typical suburban 18%. Democrats, they thought, would continue Protestant nor Catholic amounted to another adult wants to make good choices, but he or she to win votes from areas dominated by profession- 8% of voters and supported Obama 75%-22%. rarely wants to be hectored or prevented from als and educated women. Looking at what they The overall picture is thus sobering for con- making bad ones. All too often, conservatives called “ideopolises”—metropolitan areas that are servatives and Republicans. Democrats are (Republican politicians are much less guilty of economically open to technology, i.e., virtually strongest in the most rapidly expanding seg- this, incidentally) have spoken in sectarian and every major suburban county—they found that ments of the population, and every four years admonishing tones, like the temperance advo- in 1984, 55% of the professional class had voted natural growth in these groups can be expected cates criticized in Abraham Lincoln’s famous for Reagan. But in 2000, educated professionals to add one or two points to Obama’s 7.25% mar- Temperance Address (1842) for seeking moral went for Gore 55%-41%, and in 2008, for Obama gin of victory. How can Republicans possibly reform with “thundering tones of anathema about 60%-38%. Judis and Teixeira even predict- find their way back? and denunciation.” Conservatives who seek to ed which states would move toward the Demo- reform mores and appeal to the modern subur- crats by decade’s end. Every state Obama gained A Republican Strategy banite must adopt Lincoln’s maxim that “a drop from Bush was on their list, except Indiana. of honey catches more flies than a gallon of gall” It’s not hard to explain this Democratic re- hey can start by recognizing that and employ “kind, unassuming persuasion” in surgence. Suburban residents grew steadily the GOP’s base has changed since the pursuit of their ends. wealthier and more educated during the past T1980s. Remember, 42% of McCain’s Abortion is an example of a moral issue on two decades—and the trends were related, be- vote came from white evangelicals. Another which conservatives have made some headway cause since 1980 the educated class has dispro- 13% came from observant Catholics. Not all of in recent years, precisely because pro-life advo- portionally captured income gains. These devel- these voters are social conservatives, but many cates have focused less on condemning the act

Claremont Review of Books w Summer 2009 Page 31 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm of terminating a pregnancy and more on gar- remain unpopular even in the face of massive vote, about 9% more than Senator McCain got nering sympathy for the unborn child. As Ross budget shortfalls, as the recent defeat of the in losing Indiana for the GOP for the first time Douthat wrote recently, “the pro-life movement tax-raising referenda in California demon- since 1964. The governor ran farthest ahead of is arguably more comfortable with the language strates. Politically smart Democrats recognize McCain in the Indianapolis suburbs, especially of rights and liberties than its opponents.” Pub- this, which is why President Obama’s budget in Hamilton (+23%) and Marion (+21%) coun- lic attitudes have changed as a result. Polls show plan ostensibly exempts most suburbanites ties. Daniels also did substantially better than that young people are more pro-life than are from the proposed increases, and even liberal McCain in counties with large student popu- their parents, and a recent Pew poll found that Democratic states like Maryland, New York, lations such as Purdue University’s Tippeca- pro-life and pro-choice sentiments are roughly and New Jersey have limited their recent in- noe County (+18%) and Indiana-Bloomington’s equal, a dramatic change from the norm of the come tax hikes to families with incomes well Monroe County (+14%). last 35 years. above most suburban voters’. Politically smart A national agenda to reform government Conservative economic policy must adopt a Republicans, however, recognize that oppos- in line with market principles should resonate balanced tone and ambition, too. Suburbanites ing tax hikes is not enough. Suburbanites want with suburban voters—e.g., a health policy remain committed to the traditional mix of pri- their public services to work effectively, too. that encourages people to own their own insur- vate and public goods. Newt Gingrich often con- Republicans who understand this, like Indi- ance policies, thereby enabling them to choose trasts the private world that works with the pub- ana Governor Mitch Daniels, employ market their own doctors. Similarly, an education pol- lic world that doesn’t, comparing, say, FedEx’s principles to deliver better public services. For icy that focuses less on mandatory testing for ability to keep track of millions of packages daily example, he responded to the demand for more basics and more on allowing parents to choose with the federal government’s inability to police and better roads not by hiking sales or gas tax- the teachers and curricula best suited to their illegal immigration. Market principles can make es, as other governors have done. Instead, he children should also appeal. Finally, conserva- a difference in public policy, he argues. That is auctioned off the Indiana Toll Road to a private tives cannot forget that the financial crisis has the touchstone of a successful suburban appeal: company for $3.8 billion, money the state will given rise to a renewed desire for financial se- low taxes, but not no taxes; limited, but also ef- use to finance road maintenance and construc- curity: suburbanites who have spent their en- fective, government. tion without higher taxes. He also reformed tire lives enjoying a relatively steady accumula- Even today’s more Democratic-leaning sub- Medicaid by moving toward a system of Health tion of wealth have been shocked by the steep urbanites value prosperity. They have spent the Savings Accounts for the poor. and rapid depletion of their assets. Failure to last quarter-century reaping the benefits of glo- These proposals were not initially popular, address their legitimate worries could cost balization and private sector economic growth, but he stuck with them—and was handsome- conservatives as much as liberals’ dismissal of and there is little evidence that their desire to ly rewarded. In an awful GOP year, Governor popular anxiety over crime cost them in the become wealthier has abated. Thus, tax hikes Daniels cruised to re-election with 58% of the 1980s.

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Reagan’s Children require GOP margins of 30% or more, with- are like the Reagan Democrats who joined the out losing ground among other voting groups. New Republican Party in the ’70s and ’80s. But ducation, class, and race can’t be Besides, the white working class is a shrinking it may not be that simple. The 2008 American ignored when thinking about the GOP’s portion of the electorate. A Republican Party Religious Identification Survey found that 62% Efuture, to be sure. Whites without a that focused on consistently winning an ever in- of Asian-Americans are non-Christians, which four-year college degree composed between 40 creasing share of this declining segment of the may complicate conservative cultural appeals to and 50% of the electorate in 2008. Although electorate would be an entirely different party them. Hispanic cultural conservatism can also modern suburbs are dominated by the college- from the one we currently have. If it is to be the be exaggerated. A recent National Center for educated, the working-class voter (who does majority party again, the GOP must be able to Health Statistics report found that Hispanic not hold a four-year college degree) and espe- win again in the suburbs while taking as much women have higher non-marital birth rates than cially the white working-class voter, is still im- as it can of the white working class vote, which do black, Asian, or white women. And though portant. Indeed, Judis and Teixeira erroneously tends to be rural and urban. Hispanics are reliably pro-life, they have yet predicted that West Virginia, Kentucky, and Of course, suburban America is no longer to respond to the GOP’s pro-life stand. Their Missouri would swing Democratic because of lily white. The Asians of California’s Cupertino failure to vote like observant white Catholics, such voters. Instead, these states went Republi- and Monterey Park, the African-Americans of who themselves are significantly less likely to can (at the presidential level) in 2004 and 2008. Maryland’s Prince George’s County, and the vote Republican than observant white evangeli- Judis and Teixeira had assumed working-class Hispanics of Florida’s I-4 Corridor are prime cals, suggests they are less motivated by moral voters would continue to be attracted by the examples of the racial and ethnic transforma- and religious themes than by concerns over the Democrats’ economic populism and the party’s tion of the suburbs. This trend will only con- economy and education. old-fashioned “identification with the ‘common tinue: recent Census estimates show that 34% But there is evidence that Hispanic and Asian man and woman’” that “has been a defining dif- of the American population is non-white, with voters in the suburbs do resonate to national ference between the Democrats and Whigs, that share rising to 44% among children. security issues. Only twice since 1980 have Re- and the Democrats and Republicans, since the One cannot overstate the importance of this publican presidential candidates received close 1830s.” But their failed predictions call this as- trend for future GOP prospects. Recall that to 40% of the Hispanic vote—in 1984 and 2004. sumption into question. McCain received only 18% of the non-white In the latter year, President Bush also received Populism need not be directed against Big vote, which constituted 26% of the electorate. 41% of the Asian vote. In both cases, the GOP Business alone. The essence of populism is To have reached a popular majority under these candidate was an incumbent president from a the belief that an unworthy elite whom you circumstances, he would have needed 61% of the Southwestern state who had taken strong mili- cannot control has control over you, and that white vote, something Republicans have man- tary action and was effusively patriotic. government can redress that grievance. Wall aged only twice since 1928 (the landslide years America’s greatest conservatives, Abraham Street bailouts that enrich corrupt elites enrage of 1972 and 1984). What’s more, non-white Lincoln and Ronald Reagan, were careful stu- working-class voters. Non-payment of taxes by voters will be at least 30% of the electorate by dents of public opinion and demographic trends. administration appointees fuels the common 2016. Among non-whites, George W. Bush did Each adapted America’s timeless conservative man’s suspicion that government is not on his the best in 2004 of any GOP nominee since exit principles, rooted in the Declaration of Inde- side. Add the economic pressure he will soon polling began in 1972. If the 2016 GOP nomi- pendence, to their times and their audiences. feel from the Obama Administration’s aggres- nee were to perform this well among blacks, They created new political coalitions that- en sive pursuit of its environmental and immigra- Asians, and Hispanics (adjusting for each’s dured well beyond their elections. Republicans tion agendas, and one can see how Republicans projected share of the electorate), he would win today must learn from their example and create could begin to recapture the populist mantle 28.5% of the non-white vote. To win a popular a rhetoric and politics that appeal both to the for themselves. majority, he would still have to win 59% of the party base and the new American suburbanites. Of course, the GOP already wins white white vote, a total last reached by George H.W. To become Reagan’s heir, the aspiring conserva- working-class voters by a large margin. Ruy Bush in 1988. tive statesman must first understand Reagan’s Teixeira recently estimated that McCain car- Many conservatives argue that the approach children. ried this group by 18%, not much less than the to non-white voters should be through the so- 23% margin achieved by George W. Bush in cial issues, because most Hispanics are pro-life Henry Olsen is vice president of the American En- 2004. Regaining an electoral majority through Catholics and most Asian families are close-knit terprise Institute and director of the National Re- a working-class strategy alone, however, would and pro-business. They argue that these voters search Initiative.

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