he long 1988 presidential campaign seems to have been underway for years, but its main events are yet to come. It is a campaign about success and succes- sion: how should Ronald Reagan's Tadministrations be judged; what comes next? If Reagan had managed to win pas- sage of a constitutional amendment allowing presidents to serve a third term, he might not be its first benefici- ary. To imagine him running once again is to think not only of his continued popularity but of the political weaknes- ses of the current administration, in which Reagan himself seems not en- tirely present. (Reagan's approval rat- ing in public opinion polls hovers around 50%, below what he sustained in earlier years.) Yet those who have opposed the policies of the Reagan administrations face an emerging irony. In the 1980s, many have consoled themselves with the idea that Reagan's popularity has more to do with his personal qualities than with his policies. In his final year, both Reagan's power and personal popularity have declined, yet Reagan- ism still frames political debate. Unhappiness with Reagan doesn't trans- late cleanly into support for another course. Why? What has Reagan accom- plished? In foreign policy, the principle of an assertive American political and milit- ary role has been firmly re-established. The way is open for the Reagan administration to register a major victory in pressing the merits of its view that in relations with the Soviet Union, high levels of American military spending and a willingness to confront the Soviet leadership are less rather than more dangerous policies. They reduce the scope for Soviet interven- tion, and increase the likelihood that Soviet leaders will negotiate seriously on arms control. (Thus, the argument goes, putting American missiles into Europe opened the way for an agree- ment removing both Soviet and Amer- ican missiles.) The right wing of the Republican Party may taint this victory by with- holding support from the arms control agreements in process, but Democratic support will likely guarantee their Reaganism ratification. In Soviet-American rela- tions, Reagan's course has gained broad political support, though this support does not mean enthusiasm for For Ever? continued huge increases in military spending. Reagan is on the wane, badly damaged In other areas, Reagan has helped reframe debate without getting all he by Irangate. His presidency has less wants. In thinking about Nicaragua, it than a year to run. David Plotke looks at is easy to focus on Reagan's embarrass- ments and failures (which are real what might happen in November's enough). This neglects the degree to presidential election which the argument is cast in terms of whether it is in the interest of the United States to support the Contras. It is assumed, with the exception of 10 MARXISM TODAY JANUARY 1988 perhaps the left third of the Democra- services. era of unfettered market relations, tic Party, that this is mainly a tactical Buttressing this commonsense is a militant cultural conservatism, and issue; insofar as principle is involved, recognition of the dual problem of huge ever-increasing assertions of American American intervention is acceptable. budget deficits and severe trade imba- power against the Soviet Union and Thus where a regime has much less lances. Whatever the real relation various forms of national and social legitimacy than Nicaragua's govern- between the two problems, it is easier radicalism. If this was to be the Reagan ment (for any combination of ideologic- to attack the first through spending revolution, it didn't happen. al, ethnic, and religious reasons, eg, cuts than to find simple means of Yet there was a Reagan transforma- Afghanistan or Angola), American sup- dealing with the second - letting the tion - a deep shift in political priorities, port for insurgent forces is accepted. dollar fall is not enough when goods a refocusing of public discourse - in Reagan has not made Americans remain overpriced for their quality. both foreign and domestic policy. It has dream his dreams, but he has gained a Was the growing deficit tolerated not been enough to satisfy the leaders 'In his final renewed public willingness to use partly as a means of creating political of the far Right, who complain inces- year, both American power widely, to assume that obstacles to expanding government santly about the betrayals committed in Reagan's it ought to be used actively. The content activities? Or is the deficit instead the name of pragmatism. Though their of this activism is, if predictable, still (from a Reaganite perspective) mainly complaining provides a certain amount power and complex: supporting democrats against an economic problem with some benign of political comfort, to trust it as an personal weakened tyrants (Aquino/Marcos), unintended consequences for social honest report misses how far to the popularity supporting insurgencies against more and economic policy? The first is right Reagan has taken the country. have or less popular leftist governments, in probably partly true; in either case, addition to supporting armies and Reagan's legacy will not only frame If Reagan has succeeded in changing some declined, yet gangsters against popular forces debate but directly constrain spending policies, modifying the direction of Reaganism (Haiti). Despite the humiliation of the in the next few years. institutions, and framing debate, the still frames Iran/Contra affair, and continued fears hat about the social issues, next question arises: who succeeds political of Reaganite adventurism, the adminis- so-called, which have in- Reagan? Will we have Reaganism tration has recast policy debates and spired the religious Right? without Reagan, or a sharp break? debate' marginalised those critics of US power Measured by the far The political forces interested in who demand that its use be justified WRight's own statements of maximal turning Reaganism into a durable according to very stringent criteria objectives, there have been few Reaga- regime, centred in the Republican (eg, George McGovern, the victim of nite successes, especially in changing Party, can be viewed both as signs of Nixon's 1972 landslide.) laws. And Reagan's failure to nominate what has happened, and as combatants a Supreme Court justice committed to in the conflicts now underway. In economic policy, there is little respect the political and constitutional agenda The long-anticipated demise of liberal for 'supply side' economics or for other of the far Right seems to mark a Republicanism seems really to have nostrums which floated through the decisive limit to current far-right happened in presidential politics. No 1980s. Reagan's response to the sharp efforts. Yet the Right's standards are one is running to the left of Robert Dole decline in the stock market in the 1987 so high as to obscure real shifts. While (Senate minority leader, from Kansas), crash was taken as painfully inept. Yet basic policy changes have been modest who well into the 1970s was clearly whether or not 'by accident' vis-a-vis - poor enforcement of civil rights law, identified with the conservative wing Reagan's policies, the 1980s have been but no profound changes in it; hostility of the party. A significant candidacy economically good enough to provide to feminism, but few legal changes - like that of John Anderson in 1980, broad support for the government in the terms of discussion have shifted in appealing both to liberal Republicans power. There has been wide, sustained favour of the Right. Reagan's oppo- and centrist Democrats, seems hard economic growth which, despite its nents have been a little lucky, spared even to imagine. severe inequalities and dependence on what might become really terrible t the same time, far-right low-wage labour, has generated a large political defeats by the sectarianism Reaganites are hopeless as volume of jobs, with low inflation and and obduracy of a far Right which has presidential candidates rates of unemployment which if still trouble compromising or even recog- (though not in state and substantial are not perceived as scan- nising partial victories. Alocal races). The three contenders - dalous. In these years, household in- The abortion issue is a troubled Jack Kemp (a member of Congress comes have - for roughly 3/4 of the example. The full programme of the far from Buffalo, New York); Pierre population - either increased or held Right - illegalising all abortions - has DuPont (yes, that family, now as always steady. (This prosperity is compatible zero prospects. Less than a fifth of the running Delaware); and Pat Robertson with declining real wages insofar as population favours it. Nonetheless, (never elected to office, an articulate there are more workers per household.) public opinion has become less suppor- television preacher) - will be lucky to n presidential elections, recent tive of a women's right to choose, and survive the first primaries. Even economic tendencies matter a somewhat more willing to accept res- choosing one of them as a vice- great deal. Barring a steep slide trictions on the availability of abortion. presidential candidate carries major into a deep recession - which A very strong majority exists for risks - risks which Dole or Vice- woulId have to begin by summer to have keeping abortion legal under some President Bush may be tempted to run major electoral effects - Reagan's conditions (especially for medical in order to sustain the mobilisation of administrations are still perceived as reasons and in