Maritime Terrorism in the Indian Ocean Rim
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Maritime Terrorism in the Indian Ocean Rim: Peering into the Darkness Keegan B. Steele California State University Maritime Academy April, 2017 Via CIMSEC™ MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RIM Steele 1 Abstract The Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) has become a major geopolitical and security interest in the 21st century. One of the biggest issues that faces the Indian Ocean today is the swift growth of maritime related security threats. This is a major concern to not only first world nations like the United States, but also to developing states in the region. Due to the lack of stability in the region, the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula have been a breeding ground for violent non-state actors. Piracy, illicit trade, and terrorism are just a few of the non traditional maritime security threats. With instability in an already pirate-infested area, the threat of a growing maritime terrorism domain is a looming and haunting notion. This thesis will look into the history of maritime based terrorist attacks, and the potential for up and coming non-state actors, terrorist organizations, and organized crime in a region of instability. MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RIM Steele 2 Introduction Maritime terrorism is a real and current threat to the world’s maritime industry. Acts of terrorism have been committed in the past, that have not only been devastating to infrastructure, but also have caused loss of life. According to (Nincic, 2012), maritime terrorism represents a very small percentage of all terrorist attacks. “A similar analysis of the RAND terrorism database supports these figures; of the 40,126 terrorist incidents recorded between 1968 and 2007, only 136 (0.34%) were against the maritime domain” (Nincic, 2012, para. 1). Not only are these numbers low, but there hasn’t been a truly significant maritime terrorist incident since the bombing of the Limburg in 2002. Terrorist organizations that plot these attacks are a special and unique type of non-state actor, but where does the capability and intent from these groups come from? With the growing threat of the Islamic State in the Middle East and North Africa, is there a potential that the next big attack on the west will be a maritime related target? The threats that the world sees today are very unlike what has been known for centuries. In the past, the threats that sovereign states were concerned about were other sovereign states. With the establishment of what is known as a “new world order,” these threats began to take on a different form. After the Cold War, the world saw a major balancing of power between the United States and the Soviet Union. At the time the term was used by presidents George H. W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev to describe the peace that was being attempted. Groups of people, whether it be from Eastern Europe, or the Middle East typically formed as gangs or mafias, but soon enough became full fledged terrorist organizations. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Mafia began its rise to power and became known as one of the most widespread criminal organizations. In the Middle East, the rise of al-Qaeda began shortly after the Soviet occupation MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RIM Steele 3 in Afghanistan. These groups became known officially as non-state actors. These non-state actors were known to be politically motivated, and violent in nature. The maritime realm and industry are advantageous targets for these types of groups due to the vast unregulated coastlines and international waters. The difficulty perceived in attempting to stop these terrorist groups lies not only in the prevention of an attack, but also in defeating the use of the marine environment as a means of transportation. These non-state actors have developed the capability to take advantage of the coastlines of the world, where ports are not regulated by Coast Guards. In doing so, the transportation and smuggling of narcotics, weapons, and even humans are just a few of the potential crimes being committed. By definition, international waters are ruled by everyone and also by no one. However, the maritime domain is neither safe nor secured. The biggest concern that is shared among intelligence experts, according to RAND’s publication for, Center For Terrorism Risk Management Policy, is that “the next major terrorist strike against Western interests is as likely to emanate from a non territorial theater, as from a land-based one” (Greenberg, 2006, p. 2). Although there are plenty of regions of the world who have not been directly affected by regional terrorism, no matter how far away a country is, or how different their economy is, terrorism affects all. Alongside that, this means that countries like those in Europe who have been lucky to staved off major attacks by terrorist organizations must continue to develop security measures as a prevention and deterrence in the 21st century. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most culturally diverse areas in the world, stretching from the East Coast of Africa, to Southeast Asia. Consequently, it is also one of the most dangerous regions in the world, with a number of security threats to not only the millions of people living there, but also to the United States and its allies. The Indian Ocean has an ancient tradition of trade, connecting the seaports of East Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, India, and MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RIM Steele 4 Southeast Asia. There are a number of religions, races, and cultures that range from Christianity to Islam, to Hindu and Buddhist. In a lecture at CSU-Maritime Academy on East Africa and the Indian Ocean Rim, Meredith (2015) stated, “Swahili city-states grew rich and cosmopolitan with monsoon stopovers Intermingling of Arabs, Indians, Africans, in marriage, culture, language, religion” (p. 1). To understand the current state of this vast region, it is best to look to the past and examine how this region was shaped by its ancient history. Early trading along the littoral rim boosted the production of society due to the influx of a source of new raw materials. What is known as the “Pre-European trade,” was established just before the 15th century, stretched from Mozambique on the coast of Africa, to Indonesia. The Maritime culture including sailing and trade, helped spread faith, culture, and religion thousands of miles. The Indian Ocean was referred to as the “Muslim Sea.” The Western half of this region has seen conflict for thousands of years, mostly stemming from the diversity of faith and culture. In the Northern region of the IOR known as the Middle East, conflict has arisen as a result of dominant external powers attempting to rule, and the influence and interference these powers have on the region. This term defined in international relations is known as a Shatterbelt Region (Cohen, 2003). A Shatterbelt Region is defined as an area of instability, caught between colliding super powers, under constant stress. Peripheral to the Middle East is the Horn of Africa, which contains one of if not the most unstable areas in the Indian Ocean Rim. The Horn of Africa, also sometimes referred to as the Swahili Coast, is culturally Islamic. On the coast lies Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and Ethiopia inland. Since before the 19th century, the Indian Ocean has been ruled and influenced by foreign powers. Although not always successful, the colonialism that took place in certain parts of the IOR molded the region to what it is today. For example, the British Empire ruled South Africa, Kenya, and Uganda, and in the East, India and Sri Lanka. The Indian Ocean MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RIM Steele 5 in this time period was then known as a “British Lake.” Although the British Empire hadn’t necessarily colonized the Northern Coast of Africa (Horn of Africa), the influence and obvious Western aggression left distaste in the region. This region has been a hotspot for years, but is most infamously known for its lack of political governance. The Horn of Africa and Northern Swahili Coast are considered extremely dangerous and is now controlled by many local militias and tribes, and even terrorist organizations. These groups with the most firepower typically make the rules, and which is why foreign aid is scarce. Somalia is most commonly remembered in reference with the United States for the notorious “Black Hawk Down” incident which was between the local Somali al-Qaeda terrorist cell, local Mogadishu Militiamen, and self- proclaimed president Mohamed Farrah Aidid. After the incident, the United States and its allies pulled out from the region leaving a major power vacuum that was filled by further radical terrorism. Currently, there are many international governmental organizations dedicated to the counter terrorism regime. As far as maritime terrorism is classified, however, there are far fewer. The United Nations has implemented policies regarding maritime security threats at sea, those including both piracy and terrorism. Alongside the United Nations, the European Union has task forces dedicated specifically to the region of East Africa to combat the rise in piracy. The United States has AFRICOM, which is one of the six combatant commands in the world, and the headquarters for the U.S. Department of Defense in Africa. One of the other main task forces in the region is Combined Maritime Forces, with 31 participating nations. “Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) is the leading multi-national naval partnership, which exists to promote security, stability and prosperity across approximately 3.2 million square miles of international waters, which encompass some of the world’s most important shipping lanes” (Combined Maritime Forces, 2002, para 1).