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ABSOLUTE FINAL ONEIL Dissertation UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Dealing with the Devil? Explaining the Onset of Strategic State-Terrorist Negotiations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5td7j61f Author O'Neil, Siobhan Publication Date 2014 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Dealing with the Devil? Explaining the Onset of Strategic State-Terrorist Negotiations A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Siobhan O’Neil 2014 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Dealing with the Devil? Explaining the Onset of Strategic State-Terrorist Negotiations by Siobhan O’Neil Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2014 Professor Arthur Stein, Chair Statesmen are quick to declare that they will not negotiate with terrorists. Yet, the empirical record demonstrates that, despite statements to the contrary, many states do eventually negotiate with their terrorist challengers. My dissertation examines the circumstances under which states employ strategic negotiations with terrorist groups to resolve violent conflict. I argue that only when faced with a credible and capable adversary and afforded relative freedom of action domestically will states negotiate with terrorists. To test this theory, I use a multi-method approach that incorporates a cross- national study of all known strategic negotiations from 1968-2006 and three within-case studies (Israel, Northern Ireland, and the Philippines). Initial results suggest that negotiations are employed in about 13% of terrorist campaigns, certain types of groups are privileged, and negotiations only occur when statesmen can overcome domestic ii obstacles, namely public and veto player opposition. This study seeks to make definitive contributions to both science and society: Its findings will advance the literatures on conflict processes and policymaking, while informing the policy debate on effective counterterrorism strategies, an especially timely contribution given ongoing efforts to negotiate with terrorist groups in Afghanistan, Colombia, and Israel. iii The dissertation of Siobhan O’Neil is approved. Marc Trachtenberg James DeNardo Jessica Stern Arthur Stein, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2014 iv Contents Chapter 1 – Introduction…………………………………………………………………1 1.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………1 1.2 Key Argument…………………………………………………………………………2 1.3 The Study’s Parameters……………………………………………………………….3 1.4 Assumptions………………………………………………………………………….15 1.5 Theory…………………………………………………………………………...…...18 1.6 Methodology…………………………………………………………………………21 1.7 Data Analysis………………………………………………………………………...22 1.8 Case Studies………………………………………………………………………….29 1.9 Academic and Policy Relevance……………………………………………………..31 1.10 What Follows……………………………………………………………………….32 Chapter 2 – Negotiating with Terrorists is Self-Defeating: The Conventional Wisdom and its Critics…………………………………………………………………………….33 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..33 2.2 Normative Arguments………………………………………………………………..36 2.3 Explanatory Arguments……………………………………………………………...39 2.4 Critiques……………………………………………………………………………...40 2.5 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...57 Chapter 3 - The Logic of Negotiating with Terrorist Groups………………………….59 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..59 3.2 Strategic Environment……………………………………………………………….63 3.3 Domestic Political Environment……………………………………………………..86 3.4 The Role of Third Parties?.........................................................................................115 3.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….116 Chapter 4 - Israel Case Study………………………………………………………….119 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………119 4.2 History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict & Counterterrorism Responses………...121 4.3 Strategic Environment……………………………………………………………...172 4.4 Domestic Political Environment……………………………………………………193 4.5 Third Party Influence? ……………………………………………………………..222 4.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….225 Chapter 5 – UK Case Study (Northern Ireland)………………………………………228 5.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………228 5.2 Overview of the Troubles & UK Counterterrorism Policy Responses……………..231 5.3 Strategic Environment……………………………………………………………...278 v 5.4 Domestic Political Environment……………………………………………………302 5.5 Third Party Influence?...............................................................................................325 5.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….329 Chapter 6 – The Philippines Case Study…………...………………………………….336 6.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………336 6.2 The Moro and Communist Conflicts & Policy Responses…………………………339 6.3 Strategic Environment……………………………………………………………...372 6.4 Domestic Political Environment……………………………………………………399 6.5 Third Parties?.............................................................................................................428 6.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….432 Chapter 7 – Conclusion………………………………………………………………..437 7.1 The Puzzle …………………………………………………………………………..437 7.2 Summary of Findings……………………………………………………………….438 7.3 Case Studies………………………………………………………………………...441 7.4 Cross-case Analysis………………………………………………………………...449 7.5 Implications for Academia…………………………………………………………455 7.6 Future Research…………………………………………………………………….456 7.7 Implications for Policy……………………………………………………………..460 List of Figures 1. British Public Opinion on Northern Ireland’s Future………………………………..306 vi Acknowledgements It is often said that success has many parents. This maxim rings true with regard to my doctoral dissertation. I owe a sincere debt of gratitude to the members of my dissertation committee, Art Stein, Marc Trachtenberg, Jim DeNardo, and Jessica Stern, who provided thoughtful feedback and continued support. I owe a special thanks to Marc Trachtenberg for his help procuring financial support during a critical time in my studies. The faculty and staff of the UCLA Department of Political Science, particularly Joseph Brown, offered years of academic counseling, instruction, and administrative support, without which I would not have been able to finish this degree. During my the course of my research and my fieldwork, many people generously gave me their time and I am grateful for their guidance and insight into the topic. I owe sincere thanks to the foundations that helped fund this research, particularly the Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), UCLA International Institute, and Bradley Foundation, as well as the Summer Workshop on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS), Summer Institute on Conducting Archival Research (SICAR), UCLA Graduate Research Travel Grant Program, UCLA Graduate Research Mentorship Program, Partners for a Progressive Israel Symposium, and New Era Policy Conference. My colleagues in the Department and at UCLA volunteered their feedback and shared their camaraderie. A special thanks goes to Hannah Vaughan, Liza Taylor, Gilda Rodríguez for their friendship and encouragement, and to Eric Kramon and Michael Tesler, for their statistics-related support. Thank you to my friends and family – especially my siblings, Jamie, Margot, Rory, Molly and Pat and my LP, Lauren - for vii dutifully asking about my dissertation over the last seven years (alas something new to talk about!) and accepting the confines of my student budget when making plans. Most importantly, this dissertation is dedicated to the two men without whom I would not have been able to finish this degree: My loving husband Simon believed in me and my project, even when I didn’t. Without his gentle prodding and feedback, I’m not sure I would have finished this dissertation. My father offered his wide-ranging support over the course of my degree despite his personal misgivings about political scientists. Lastly, I lost my mother while I was writing this dissertation. I wish she were here to see this day – a PhD and the prospects of getting another adult child off the family phone plan! viii Biographical Sketch Prior to commencing her studies at UCLA, Siobhan O’Neil worked in the security and intelligence fields. In the wake of the September 11th attacks, she worked for the newly created state homeland security agencies in New York and New Jersey, helping state and local governments build their capacity to detect, prevent, and recover from terrorist attacks. She later served as the analyst for domestic security and intelligence at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), identifying emerging threats and evaluating possible policy responses for Congress. During the course of her doctoral studies, Siobhan worked as a research analyst at the RAND Corporation on projects pertaining to counterinsurgency transitions, insurgent motivations, and civil-military coordination during a domestic chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive (CBRNE) attacks. Siobhan has an MA in Homeland Security and Defense from the Naval Postgraduate School, an M.Litt. in International Security Studies from the University of St. Andrews, and a BA in Political Science and History from the College of the Holy Cross. ix “Of course, if you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” Moshe Dayan1 1 Dayan, then Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, made the comment when interviewed by Newsweek. Interestingly, the rest of the quote reads, “But the question is whom do we want
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