SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Alexandra Sakaki and Gudrun Wacker China – Japan – South Korea A Tense Ménage à Trois RP 5 April 2017 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2017 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 34 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org
[email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Tom Genrich (Updated English version of SWP-Studie 4/2017) Table of Contents 5 Issues and Recommendations 7 Introduction 9 Bilateral Relations: The Three Dyads 9 China and Japan: Relative Rise and Decline 9 Political Relations 11 Security and Perceived Threats 11 China and South Korea: One-sided Dependencies 11 Political Relations 12 Security and Perceived Threats 13 Japan and South Korea: Distant Neighbours 13 Political Relations 15 Security and Threat Evaluations 15 Public Opinion in the Three Countries 16 Trade and Economic Relations 23 The Role of the US in China-Japan-South Korea Relations 24 Conclusion: Prospects for Trilateral Cooperation 26 Trilateral Cooperation 26 Origins and Development 28 The Trilateral Format: A Balance Sheet 31 The Significance of the Trilateral Format 33 Bilateral and/or Trilateral: The Outlook 34 Acronyms Dr Alexandra Sakaki, an Associate in the Asia Division, is Senior Fellow with the Robert Bosch Stiftung for the project “Japan in the international system”.