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A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned from Agent-Based Modeling

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A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned from Agent-Based Modeling Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations Graduate Program in International Studies Fall 2017 A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned From Agent-Based Modeling Joanne Marie Fish Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Fish, Joanne M.. "A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned From Agent-Based Modeling" (2017). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/spk1-5d03 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/19 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A CROSS-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE MARITIME SECURITY RISK OF PIRACY AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM AGENT-BASED MODELING by Joanne Marie Fish B.S. May 1982, United States Naval Academy M.A. June 1993, Naval Postgraduate School A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY December 2017 Approved by: Jesse T. Richman (Director) Kurt Taylor Gaubatz (Member) David C. Earnest (Member) C. Ariel Pinto (Member) ABSTRACT A CROSS-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE MARITIME SECURITY RISK OF PIRACY AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM AGENT-BASED MODELING Joanne Marie Fish Old Dominion University, 2017 Director: Dr. Jesse T. Richman This dissertation takes a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding pirate activity. Maritime piracy presents a dynamic ever-evolving problem. In today’s globalized world, contemporary maritime piracy presents a transnational threat. It is a complex socio-economic and political problem which the modern world considers to be criminal activity. Like all complex problems it must be deconstructed to fully comprehend it. All criminal activity, maritime piracy included, has certain elements of supply and demand. For the activity to occur there must be a certain level, or supply, of targets. At the same time, we can posit that there must be a lack of other opportunities for the pirates, who calculate that the risk of engaging in piracy is worthwhile. This risk calculation is a function of the potential rewards minus the sum of the risks. An increase in pirate attacks creates a demand for better maritime security. An increase in maritime security causes an increase in risk to pirates. Improved pirate capabilities may decrease this risk. The result is a constantly evolving complex problem. This study proposes a parsimonious agent-based model, focused on the socio-economic and political variables that encourage piracy, with utility across many specific regional domains. By simplifying the details of certain aspects of the model, the focus is placed on the issues at the heart of the problem. This allows for new insights into the dynamic relationship between these factors. iii Copyright, 2017, by Joanne Marie Fish, All Rights Reserved. iv For my Mother who always encouraged me and never told me I couldn’t. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am truly grateful for the support and guidance of my dissertation committee. Starting with Dr. Kurt Taylor Gaubatz who has been with this project from the beginning and for asking “Why not do pirates?” To Dr. David Earnest, who stepped in when he already had a full slate of doctoral candidates under his guidance; this project would not have been possible without his assistance in helping me translate my abstract concept into a working model. To Dr. Jesse Richman, for stepping up to Chair the committee and providing fresh insight to a project that was long in its construction. Finally, but not least, to Dr. Ariel Pinto who first inspired me to think about complex problems as enterprise systems and who was always willing to take the time and encourage my work. I especially want to thank Claudia Risner for dragging me to Malaysia and Singapore; for setting up visits to IMB Piracy Reporting Centre, ReCAAP, and the Singapore Navy’s Information Fusion Center, but more importantly for constantly challenging me to more clearly define what I was trying to do with my research and motivating me to keep at it. I also wish to thank; Noel Choong, Director of the Piracy Reporting Centre in Kuala Lumpur for taking time out of his busy schedule to meet with me; Amy Fang, Manager of Corporate Communications at ReCAPP for providing me information and contacts, as well a tour of the facilities; and especially, Lieutenant Commander, Andrew (Bruce) McLaughlin, Royal Australian Navy for escorting Claudia and me around the Maritime Security sights of Singapore and providing us access to the Information Fusion Centre. I would also like thank Cyrus Mody, Assistant Director, ICC International Maritime Bureau in London and vi thank him for providing me with past annual reports. The data he made available to me significantly added to my research efforts. I am grateful to the Graduate Program in International Studies for providing me with this research opportunity. Dr. Regina Karp, Director of GPIS, was always willing to answer questions and encourage my efforts. Margo Stambleck provided invaluable assistance in getting administrative issues taken care of. I greatly appreciate all my classmates who broadened my perspective and challenged me intellectually. Special thanks go my modeling buddies, Erika Frydenlund, Rebecca Law, Christina Slentz and Khatera Alizada – you inspire me. Thank-you to all my friends who continued to encourage me, even if it was just to ask, “is it done yet?” My greatest thanks go to my family who supported me throughout, especially my husband, Bob, who was my programming buddy for NetLogo and who has taken the time to read each and every word of this dissertation – I love you always. vii ACRONYMS ABM Agent-Based Model ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practicable ASG Abu Sayyaf Group ATC Agent Technology Center BMP Best Management Practices CAST Conflict Assessment System Tool CMF Combined Maritime Forces CTF Combined Task Force DBN Dynamic Bayesian Network DES Discrete Event Simulation DP Demographic Pressures (FSI indicator) ECO Poverty and Economic Decline (FSI indicator) EU European Union FFP Fund For Peace FSA Formal Ship Safety Assessment FSI Fragile State Index GAO Government Accountability Office GIS Geographic Information System GISIS Global Integrated Shipping Information System HLH Hong Kong-Luzon-Hainan HMM Hidden Markov Model viii ICC International Chamber of Commerce IDP Internally Displaced Person IFC Information Fusion Centre IMB International Maritime Bureau IMO International Maritime Organization INTERPOL International Criminal Police Organization IRTC International Recommended Transit Corridor ISC Information Sharing Centre ISPS International Shipboard Port Facilities Security (code) ITOC International Terrorism and Organized Crime Group JHC Joint Hull Committee JWC Joint War Committee JWLA Joint War Committee Listed Areas K&R Kidnap and Ransom (insurance) MARISA MAritime RISk Assessment MSC-HOA Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization *NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency *NGIS National Geographic Information System NRL Naval Research Laboratory NSMS National Strategy for Maritime Security OBP Oceans Beyond Piracy ODD Overview, Design Concepts, and Details ix ONI Office of Naval Intelligence OOS Operation Ocean Shield PAG Pirate Action Groups PARS Pirate Attack Risk Surface POM Piracy Opportunity Model PPS Piracy Performance Surface PPSN Next Generation PPS PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment PRC Piracy Reporting Centre ReCAAP Regional Cooperation Agreement on combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia RTM Risk Terrain Model SEC Security Apparatus (FSI Indicator) SL State Legitimacy (FSI Indicator) SLDS Switching Linear Dynamic System SOLAS International Convention for Safety of Life at Sea SRT Skiff Run Time (POM variable) SUA Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation UN United Nations UNCLOS United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution VLCC Very Large Crude Carrier WFP World Food Program x TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................ xiii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................................ xv Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................... 3 RESEARCH DESIGN .....................................................................................................................................
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