The Private Rented Market in West and

An evidence base

June 2013

Main contact: Helen Brzozowski arc4 Ltd Mob: 07721 011 276 email: [email protected] web: www.arc4.co.uk

©2013 Arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...... 5 2. The Evidence Base...... 6 The size of the sector ...... 6 The growth in the sector ...... 7 New properties coming onto the market ...... 10 Property type and bed size ...... 13 Rent levels ...... 15 Affordability ...... 18 Properties let ...... 20 Rent differentials ...... 21 Time to let property ...... 22 Rental yields ...... 24 3. In summary and conclusion ...... 25 Total stock ...... 25 Properties on the market ...... 25 Rent levels ...... 26 Affordability ...... 26 Time to let a property ...... 26 Rental yields ...... 27 The emerging markets...... 27

List of Tables Table 1: Private Rented Sector by Spacial Area ...... 6 Table 2: Growth in PRS 2001-11 by Spatial Area**...... 7 Table 3: Average Property Price by Spatial Area ...... 9 Table 4: Number of Properties coming to Market 2009-12 ...... 10 Table 5: Number of properties coming to market as percentage of PRS ...... 11 Table 6: Size of property on market 2009-12 ...... 13 Table 7: Number of properties coming to market 2009-12 by property size ...... 13 Table 8: The percentage of properties coming onto the market by bed size 2009-2012 ...... 14 Table 9: Average rent levels ...... 15 Table 10: Average rent change by type and size 2009-12...... 16 Table 11: Rent levels by property type in Spatial Areas ...... 17 Table 12: Affordability by property size...... 18 arc4 2 Table 13: Income versus rental by Spatial Area...... 19 Table 14: Income versus rental by property size ...... 19 Table 15: Average time to let by Spatial Area ...... 22 Table 16: Average time to let property by type and size 2009-12 ...... 23 Table 17: Rental yields by Spacial Area ...... 24

List of figures Chart 1: The percentage growth in the Private Rented Sector 2001-2011 ...... 7 Chart 2: The growth in the private rented sector 2001-2011...... 8 Chart 3: The growth in the private rented sector 2001-2011...... 8 Chart 4: The percentage of the private rented sector in each Spatial Area ...... 12 Chart 5: The property sales market 2008-2012 (2008=100) ...... 12 Chart 6: The percentage of properties coming onto the market by bed size 2009-2012 ...... 13 Chart 7: The proportion of flats and houses coming onto the market and let 2009-2012 ...... 20 Chart 8: Rent differentials ...... 21

List of maps Map 1: The location of the private rented sector ...... 6 Map 2: The increase in the number of properties coming onto the market 2009-2012 ...... 10 Map 3: The number of the private rented homes coming onto the market as a percentage of the total private rented stock in 2012 ...... 11 Map 4: The average rent change 2009 to 2012 ...... 16 Map 5: The percentage change of rent levels for flats 2009-2012 ...... 17 Map 6: The percentage change of rent levels for houses 2009-2012 ...... 17 Map 7: The average time to let a property in 2012 ...... 22

arc4 3 Please note that in this report some of the tables include rounded figures. This can result in some column or row totals not adding up to

100 or to the anticipated row or column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. We include this description here as it covers all tables and associated textual commentary included. If tables or figures are to be used in-house then we recommend the addition of a similarly worded statement being included as a note to each table used.

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arc4 4 1. Introduction 1.1 The Government’s Housing Strategy, published in November 20111, set out the Government’s plans to boost housing supply. It recognised an increasingly important role for the private rented sector, both in meeting people’s housing needs and in supporting economic growth by enabling people to move to take up jobs elsewhere and to respond to changing circumstances. 1.2 The private rented sector is growing; the recently published Census figures for 2011 confirmed that the sector now totals 18.1%, an increase of 31.2% from 13.8% in 2001. Increasing house prices pre 2007 and the struggling sales market when the down turn came are both factors that have underpinned the growth of the rental market for both ‘active choice’ renters and ‘frustrated would be’ homeowners. Tenure reform and less accessible social rented housing is also likely to be an increasing factor to the growth in the private rented sector and the sector clearly now plays a vital role in meeting housing needs as well as providing an alternative to homeownership. 1.3 Local authorities have an important role in ensuring that the Private Rented Sector meets both these requirements. Balancing good quality supply with demand will help to stabilise rents and encouraging good quality management will improve the reputation of the sector and encourage longer term lets and lower turnover. However, this is a challenging task where existing partners need to be encouraged to participate and new partners and investors need to be identified. 1.4 This report provides an evidence base around the scale, growth and performance of the Private Rented Sector in Cheshire West and Chester since 2009. It utilises data from a number of secondary sources which are identified in the report. Vizzihomes data is used extensively in this report and only includes private rented property that has been advertised and/or managed through a letting agent.

1 Laying The Foundations; A Housing Strategy for , 2011 arc4 5 2. The Evidence Base The size of the sector 2.1 The Census 2011 confirms (Table 1) that there are 18,225 (13.2%) households living in the private rented sector in Cheshire West and Chester; this is lower than the national figure of 18.1%. The highest percentages are in Farndon (21.1%), Tattenhall (20.8%), Chester Urban Area (18.6%) and Malpas (18.4%) and are significantly larger than most of other areas. The lowest is in Cuddington and Sandiway (8%). The location of the private rented sector, by percentage of the market, is illustrated in Map 1. 2.2 There are nine spatial areas where the private rented sector is larger than the social rented sector, and these are Chester Urban Area, Chester Villages, Farndon, , Rural East, Rural North, Tarporley, Tarvein and Kelsall and Tattenhall. In terms of numbers of units, Chester urban Area has the largest private rented sector and Cuddington and Sandiway the smallest.

Table 1: Private Rented Sector by Spacial Area Map 1: The location of the private rented sector

Spatial Area Owners Affordable PRS Total Owners Affordable PRS No. Housing No. % Housing % No. % Chester Urban Area 21,985 6,241 6,445 34,671 63.4 18.0 18.6 Chester Villages 2,941 164 320 3,425 85.9 4.8 9.3 Cuddington and Sandiway 1,890 180 180 2,250 84.0 8.0 8.0 Urban Area 17,503 5,247 2,600 25,350 69.0 20.7 10.3 Farndon 1,762 196 525 2,483 71.0 7.9 21.1 Frodsham 3,106 446 473 4,025 77.2 11.1 11.8 Helsby 1,735 160 248 2,143 81.0 7.5 11.6 Malpas 1,188 206 315 1,709 69.5 12.1 18.4 5,365 924 728 7,017 76.5 13.2 10.4 Urban Area 16,051 3,339 2,798 22,188 72.3 15.0 12.6 Rural East 5,363 327 537 6,227 86.1 5.3 8.6 Rural North 6,131 485 737 7,353 83.4 6.6 10.0 Tarporley 1,516 182 226 1,924 78.8 9.5 11.7 Tarvin and Kelsall 2,669 224 330 3,223 82.8 7.0 10.2 Tattenhall 1,294 186 389 1,869 69.2 10.0 20.8 Urban Area 8,052 2,727 1,374 12,153 66.3 22.4 11.3 Cheshire West & Chester 98,551 21,234 18,225 138,010 71.4 15.4 13.2 Source: Census 2011

arc4 6 The growth in the sector 2.3 Table 2, illustrates the growth in the private rented sector between 2001 and 2011. Overall, the private rented sector has decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 13.2% an increase of 51.7% and as a result both the owner occupied sectors and affordable housing sectors have reduced (Chart 1). 2.4 All spatial areas (with the exception of Tarporley) show growth in the private rented sector. There are a number of spatial areas where the social rented sector has reduced and the private rented sector has increased such as Chester Villages, Neston and Winsford Urban Area. This growth is likely to be through Right to Buy properties being offered for rent and is likely to be a lower value market. However, there are other wards where owner occupied property has converted to the private rented sector and this is more like ly to be through investor markets or potentially because owners are unable to sell property, e.g. Chester Urban Area and Helsby.

Table 2: Growth in PRS 2001-11 by Spatial Area** Chart 1: The percentage growth in the Private Rented Sector 2001-2011 Spatial Area Owners Affordable PRS Owners Affordable PRS % Housing % % Housing % Growth in the private rented sector % % 2001 2011 Chester Urban Area 68.2 18.9 12.9 63.4 18.0 18.6 80 74.2 Chester Villages 85.2 7.0 7.8 85.9 4.8 9.3 71.4 Cuddington and Sandiway 77.7 16.5 5.8 84.0 8.0 8.0 70 Ellesmere Port Urban Area 71.4 23.2 5.4 69.0 20.7 10.3 Farndon 77.8 5.9 16.3 71.0 7.9 21.1 60 Frodsham 81.1 12.5 6.3 77.2 11.1 11.8 Helsby 85.6 7.9 6.5 81.0 7.5 11.6 50 Malpas 75.2 10.8 14.0 69.5 12.1 18.4 Neston 72.6 20.9 6.5 76.5 13.2 10.4 40 Northwich Urban Area 75.7 16.8 7.5 72.3 15.0 12.6 30 Rural East 83.7 9.5 6.8 86.1 5.3 8.6 Rural North 83.8 7.1 9.0 83.4 6.6 10.0 20 17.1 15.4 Tarporley 77.9 10.1 12.0 78.8 9.5 11.7 13.2 Tarvin and Kelsall 86.8 5.9 7.3 82.8 7.0 10.2 8.7 10 Tattenhall 70.3 9.8 19.9 69.2 10.0 20.8 Winsford Urban Area 67.6 26.1 6.2 66.3 22.4 11.3 0 Cheshire West & Chester 74.2 17.1 8.7 71.4 15.4 13.2 Owner Aff Hsg PRS Base 98,637 22,744 11,549 98,551 21,234 18,225 Note: 2001 census based on wards which roughly correspond with current Spatial Areas Source: Census 2001 and 2011 2001 2011 Source: Census 2001 and 2011 ** Ward boundaries have changed since between 2001 and 2011. Please note figures in individual wards with caution

arc4 7 2.5 The overall changes mask geographical differences. In terms of percentage increases, the special areas that experienced the highest growth were in Ellesmere Port Urban Area, Frodsham, Winsford Urban area and Helsby (Chart 2).

Percentage growth in the private rented sector 2001-2011

100

80 Chart 2: The growth in the private rented sector 60 2001-2011

40

20

0

-20 Helsby Farndon Malpas Neston Frodsham Tarporley Tattenhall Rural EastRural North

Chester Villages Tarvin and Kelsall Chester Urban Area Northwich Urban Area Winsford Urban Area Cuddington and Sandiway Cheshire West & Chester Ellesmere Port Urban Area Source: Census 2001 and 2011

2.6 However, in terms of overall growth the spatial areas that experienced the largest growth are Ellesemere Port Urban Area, Frodsham, Winsford Urban Area and Helsby (Chart 3)

Percentage growth in the PRS 2001-2011

100 Chart 3: The growth in the private rented sector 2001-2011 80 Source: Census 2001 and 2011

60

40

20

0

-20 Helsby Farndon Malpas Neston Frodsham Tarporley Tattenhall Rural EastRural North

Chester Villages Tarvin and Kelsall Chester Urban Area Northwich Urban Area Winsford Urban Area Cheshire West & Chester CuddingtonEllesmere and Sandiway Port Urban Area arc4 8 2.7 In table 3, we have compared average property prices in 2012 in each ward with the size of the private rented sector. The table confirms that the sector is relatively well distributed in higher value areas and would suggest that the sector is a higher income economically active household sector providing an alternative for households unable to get onto the household ladder and households that support economic growth. There are areas where the sector is potentially an extension of the social rented sector such as Ellesmere Port Urban area and Winsford Urban Area.

Table 3: Average Property Price by Spatial Area Average sales Value 2012 Total %age of the PRS Census 2011 Spatial Area

Chester Urban Area £195,190 18.6 Chester Villages £277,653 9.3 Cuddington and Sandiway £240,077 8.0 Ellesmere Port Urban Area £136,232 10.3 Farndon £301,093 21.1 Frodsham £215,429 11.8 Helsby £160,685 11.6 Malpas £261,605 18.4 Neston £210,725 10.4 Northwich Urban Area £170,117 12.6 Rural East £280,389 8.6 Rural North £221,647 10.0 Tarporley £362,362 11.7 Tarvin and Kelsall £270,268 10.2 Tattenhall £410,959 20.8 Winsford Urban Area £123,619 11.3 Cheshire West & Chester £191,335 13.2

arc4 9 New properties coming onto the market 2.8 Table 4 shows the actual number of properties coming onto the private rented market each year from 2009 to 2012 in each spatial area2. Overall, the total number of properties coming onto the market has increased from 5,123 in 2009 to 6,476 in 2012; an increase of 26.4%. The total numbers coming onto the market has increased year on year with 2012 seeing the largest number of properties coming onto the market during the past four years. These year-on-year increases show a steady rate of incline. 2.9 The spatial areas that have experienced the largest percentage increase in new properties coming onto the market are: Malpas (105.9%) although this is based on relatively small numbers, Neston (57.2%), Rural North (75.7%), and Winsford Urban Area (56.2%). 2.10 In terms of the total number of properties coming onto the market in the past four years, the largest numbers have been in Chester Urban Area (10,029) and the lowest number in Malpas (212). 2.11 The increase in the number of properties coming onto the market from 2009 in each ward is mapped in Map 2 below

Table 4: Number of Properties coming to Market 2009-12 Map 2: The increase in the number of properties coming onto the market %age change Total %age of 2009-2012 Spatial Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total from 2009 to the PRS Census 2012 2011 Chester Urban Area 2,306 2,272 2,824 2,627 10,029 13.9% 18.6 Chester Villages 94 105 117 118 434 25.5% 9.3 Cuddington and Sandiway 52 47 50 77 226 48.1% 8.0 Ellesmere Port Urban Area 572 572 695 843 2,682 47.4% 10.3 Farndon 114 76 114 100 404 -12.3% 21.1 Frodsham 116 148 145 164 573 41.4% 11.8 Helsby 97 70 90 75 332 -22.7% 11.6 Malpas 34 43 65 70 212 105.9% 18.4 Neston 201 231 311 316 1,059 57.2% 10.4 Northwich Urban Area 737 767 893 921 3,318 25.0% 12.6 Rural East 127 135 132 151 545 18.9% 8.6 Rural North 189 222 309 332 1,052 75.7% 10.0 Tarporley 77 67 69 78 291 1.3% 11.7 Tarvin and Kelsall 85 95 85 111 376 30.6% 10.2 Tattenhall 57 56 65 79 257 38.6% 20.8 Winsford Urban Area 265 285 366 414 1,330 56.2% 11.3 Cheshire West & Chester 5,123 5,191 6,330 6,476 23,120 26.4% 13.2 %age 22.2% 22.5% 27.4% 28.0% 100.0% Source: Vizzihomes and Census 2011

2 These properties were advertised through a private letting agent. arc4 10 2.12 Table 5 shows the actual number of properties coming onto the market during 2010, 2011 and 2012 as a percentage of all properties in the Private Rented Sector. This provides a useful guide on activity in the market. Overall, the number of properties coming onto the market as a percentage of the total stock (as taken from the Census 2011) has increased over the past 3 years and in 2012 represented 35.5% of the total private rented stock. 2.13 The wards with the largest number of units coming onto the market as a percentage of the total private rented sector stock in 2012 were Rural North (45%), Neston (43.4%), Cuddington and Sandiway (42.8%) and Chester Urban Area (40.8%). 2.14 The number of the private rented homes coming onto the market as a percentage of the total private rented stock in 2012 is illustrated in Map 3

Table 5: Number of properties coming to market as percentage of PRS Map 3: The number of the private rented homes coming onto Spatial Area Total no of new Total no of new Total no of new Total Number as Number as a Number as the market as a percentage of the total private rented stock in 2012 properties properties properties number of a %age of %age of a %age of coming onto coming onto coming onto properties total stock total stock total stock the market the market the market in the PRS 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Chester Urban Area 2272 2824 2627 6,445 35.3 43.8 40.8 Chester Villages 105 117 118 320 32.8 36.6 36.9 Cuddington and 47 50 77 180 26.1 27.8 42.8 Sandiway Ellesmere Port Urban 572 695 843 2,600 22.0 26.7 32.4 Area Farndon 76 114 100 525 14.5 21.7 19.0 Frodsham 148 145 164 473 31.3 30.7 34.7 Helsby 70 90 75 248 28.2 36.3 30.2 Malpas 43 65 70 315 13.7 20.6 22.2 Neston 231 311 316 728 31.7 42.7 43.4 Northwich Urban 767 893 921 2,798 27.4 31.9 32.9 Area Rural East 135 132 151 537 25.1 24.6 28.1 Rural North 222 309 332 737 30.1 41.9 45.0 Tarporley 67 69 78 226 29.6 30.5 34.5 Tarvin and Kelsall 95 85 111 330 28.8 25.8 33.6 Tattenhall 56 65 79 389 14.4 16.7 20.3 Winsford Urban Area 285 366 414 1,374 20.7 26.6 30.1 Cheshire West & 5191 6330 6476 18,225 28.5 34.7 35.5 Chester Source: Vizzihomes and Census 2011

arc4 11 2.15 In Charts 4 and 5, we have compared the percentage of stock in the private rented sector using Census data 2011 with property sales in those spatial areas in 2012. 2.16 We are seeing three potential types of markets:  Markets where there are relatively buoyant sales but low percentages of private rented properties. Here we assume that properties are primarily being sold to owner occupied markets. These would include Chester Villages, Cuddington and Sandiway and Neston.  Relatively buoyant sales markets with corresponding high private rented sectors. This includes Farndon and Malpas.  Slow sales markets but high levels of private rented housing, where potentially owner occupied properties are being converted to the private rented sector, potentially if properties cannot be sold or the sector is already well established such as Tattenhall.

Chart 4: The percentage of the private rented sector in each Spatial Area Chart 5: The property sales market 2008-2012 (2008=100)

The percentage of the private rented sector 2011 The perentage of sales in each area

25 4 3.5 20 3

15 2.5 2 10 1.5 1 5 0.5 0 0

Helsby CWAC Helsby CWAC Farndon MalpasNeston Farndon MalpasNeston Frodsham Tarporley Tattenhall Frodsham Tarporley Tattenhall RuralRural East North RuralRural East North

Chester Villages Chester Villages Tarvin and Kelsall Tarvin and Kelsall Chester Urban Area Chester Urban Area Winsford Urban Area Northwich Urban Area Winsford Urban Area Northwich Urban Area Cuddington and Sandiway CuddingtonEllesmere and Port Sandiway Urban Area Ellesmere Port Urban Area

Census 2011 Land Registry Price Paid

arc4 12 Property type and bed size 2.17 The number of flats that have come onto the market has increased from 2009 with a slight dip in 2012, but the proportion of both flats and houses has remained relatively stable. Flats only represent about a third of properties; the majority of properties that are on the private market are houses.(Table 6)

Table 6: Size of property on market 2009-12 Property type 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Property type 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total No No No No % % % % % Flats 1,652 1,603 2,083 2,050 7,388 Flats 32.2% 30.9% 32.9% 31.7% 32.0% House 3,471 3,588 4,247 4,426 15,732 House 67.8% 69.1% 67.1% 68.3% 68.0% Cheshire West & Chester 5,123 5,191 6,330 6,476 23,120 CWAC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Vizzihomes

2.18 Table 7, illustrates the total number of properties coming onto the market by property size in each of the four years from 2009-2012 and also expresses these figures as a percentage for each year. 2.19 There is limited choice in the private rented market for families. Two bed properties dominate the market and represent 42.9% of all properties brought to the market since 2009 and 3 bed account for 29.0% of all properties. By comparison, there are very few smaller or larger properties and only 2.3% of all properties brought onto the market in the past four years have been bed-sits and only 12.6% have over 4 beds. 2.20 This property offer is likely to create shortages of property for households affected by the shared room rate or looking for smaller accommodation and also limit options for growing families reliant on the private rented sector.

Table 7: Number of properties coming to market 2009-12 by property size Chart 6: The percentage of properties coming onto the market by bed size 2009-2012 No of beds 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total No of beds 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total No No No No No % % % % % The proportion of properties coming onto the market Bed sit 106 102 222 103 533 Bed sit 2.1% 2.0% 3.5% 1.6% 2.3% by bed size 1 677 689 859 878 3103 1 13.2% 13.3% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4% 2 2255 2191 2703 2758 9907 2 44.0% 42.2% 42.7% 42.6% 42.9% 50.00% 3 1435 1498 1783 1967 6683 3 28.0% 28.9% 28.2% 30.4% 29.0% 45.00% 40.00% 4 506 535 588 629 2258 4 9.9% 10.3% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8% 35.00% 5 110 124 133 121 488 5 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 30.00% 6 25 39 31 15 110 6 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 25.00% 7 3 7 4 3 17 7 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 20.00% 8 4 5 2 1 12 8 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 15.00% 9 N/A N/A 1 N/A 1 9 N/A N/A 0.0% N/A 0.0% 10.00% N/A 1 4 1 6 N/A 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10 10 5.00% CWAC 5,123 5,191 6,330 6,476 23,082 CWAC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.00% Source: Vizzihomes 2009% 2010% 2011% 2012% Total 2009-12 Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Bed sit 1 2 3 4 5 6

Source: Vizzihomes arc4 13 2.21 Table 83, shows the number and percentage of different property types and sizes coming onto the market from 2009-2012. 2.22 There has been an increase in the number of three bed houses coming onto the market from 2009 to 2012; at the same time there has been a decline in the number of 2 bedroom flats. Two and three bed houses dominate the market, with low proportions of smaller or larger houses available.

Table 8: The percentage of properties coming onto the market by bed size 2009-2012 Property type 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 2009 % 2010 % 2011 % 2012 % Total Flat 1,652 1,603 2,083 2,050 7,388 32.2% 30.9% 32.9% 31.7% 32.0% Bedsit 51 54 75 62 242 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1 Bed 480 482 622 660 2,244 9.4% 9.3% 9.8% 10.2% 9.7% 2 Bed 1,047 985 1,290 1,210 4,532 20.4% 19.0% 20.4% 18.7% 19.6% 3 Bed 69 79 88 102 338 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 4 Bed 5 1 7 13 26 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 5 Bed N/A 1 1 2 4 N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6 Bed N/A 1 N/A 1 2 N/A 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% House 3,471 3,588 4,247 4,426 15,732 67.8% 69.1% 67.1% 68.3% 68.0% Bedsit 55 48 147 41 291 1.1% 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 1.3% 1 Bed 197 207 237 218 859 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.7% 2 Bed 1,208 1,206 1,413 1,548 5,375 23.6% 23.2% 22.3% 23.9% 23.2% 3 Bed 1,366 1,419 1,695 1,865 6,345 26.7% 27.3% 26.8% 28.8% 27.4% 4 Bed 501 534 581 616 2,232 9.8% 10.3% 9.2% 9.5% 9.7% 5 Bed 110 123 132 119 484 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 6 Bed 25 38 31 14 108 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 7 Bed 3 7 4 3 17 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 8 Bed 4 5 2 1 12 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 9 Bed N/A N/A 1 N/A 1 N/A N/A 0.0% N/A 0.0% 10 Bed N/A 1 4 1 6 N/A 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Cheshire West & Chester 5,123 5,191 6,330 6,476 23,120 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Vizzihomes

3 This data is available at spacial area level but too large to include within this report arc4 14 Rent levels 2.23 Table 9, shows the average rent levels for properties coming onto the market in each ward for the four years 2009-2012. It then shows the percentage increases in rents year on year and the overall percentage increase from 2009-2012. 2.24 The average rent for a property in Cheshire West and Chester from 2009-2012 was £688 pcm. Since 2009, average rents in Cheshire West and Chester have increased by 4.4%, Significantly, the period in which the largest part of this increase happened was between 2010 and 2011 where average rent increased by 1.9%. Overall, rents have remained relatively stable in the past 12 months. 2.25 The overall figures mask geographical differences. The highest rent increase was in Malpas (20.4%) and the lowest was a reduction in Cuddington and Sandiway (-17.5%).

Table 9: Average rent levels Spatial Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total % change % change % change % change £pcm £pcm £pcm £pcm £pcm 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2009-2012 Chester Urban Area £637 £651 £677 £685 £664 2.3% 4.0% 1.1% 7.6% Chester Villages £837 £892 £1,021 £956 £932 6.5% 14.4% -6.3% 14.2% Cuddington and Sandiway £894 £859 £1,376 £737 £940 -3.9% 60.2% -46.4% -17.5% Ellesmere Port Urban Area £571 £602 £606 £597 £595 5.4% 0.6% -1.5% 4.4% Farndon £964 £858 £1,007 £972 £958 -11.0% 17.4% -3.5% 0.9% Frodsham £711 £730 £712 £718 £718 2.6% -2.4% 0.8% 0.9% Helsby £751 £708 £713 £776 £737 -5.7% 0.7% 8.7% 3.2% Malpas £700 £844 £912 £843 £841 20.6% 8.0% -7.5% 20.4% Neston £712 £707 £678 £682 £692 -0.7% -4.2% 0.6% -4.2% Northwich Urban Area £598 £610 £607 £602 £604 2.1% -0.6% -0.7% 0.8% Rural East £1,002 £920 £1,029 £1,105 £1,017 -8.2% 11.9% 7.4% 10.3% Rural North £782 £841 £856 £902 £854 7.5% 1.8% 5.4% 15.3% Tarporley £957 £928 £1,037 £877 £948 -3.1% 11.8% -15.4% -8.4% Tarvin and Kelsall £831 £891 £885 £922 £885 7.2% -0.6% 4.1% 10.9% Tattenhall £974 £823 £833 £905 £884 -15.5% 1.1% 8.7% -7.1% Winsford Urban Area £609 £592 £586 £590 £593 -2.7% -1.0% 0.7% -3.0% Cheshire West & Chester £669 £678 £700 £699 £688 1.3% 3.2% -0.2% 4.4% Source: Vizzihomes

arc4 15 2.26 The average rent change 2009 to 2012 is shown geographically in Map 4. 2.27 Table 10 shows average rents by property type and bedsize4. Since 2009, average rents for flats have increased by 1.7%, whilst for houses the increase has been 5.3%. 4-bed flats have exhibited the largest rental increases (40.5%), possibly reflecting the short supply of this type of property in the market and the changing needs of the market; however, some of this increase can be attributed to 2010 when there was a major rise in the average rent for a 4-bedroom house. 2.28 For houses, larger rental increases have been experienced in smaller and larger properties. This is likely to be linked to the caps on LHA and that many households have chosen the private rented sector as a ‘stepping stone’ into homeownership and are renting smaller (cheaper) properties whilst they save for deposits for mortgages.

Table 10: Average rent change by type and size 2009-12 Map 4: The average rent change 2009 to 2012 %age 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Property size change £pcm £pcm £pcm £pcm £pcm 2009-2012 Flat £580 £589 £608 £590 £593 1.7% Bed sit £396 £480 £470 £404 £440 2.2% 1 £489 £484 £501 £486 £490 -0.6% 2 £620 £628 £644 £631 £632 1.8% 3 £727 £803 £896 £792 £808 9.0% 4 £774 £2,250 £1,136 £1,087 £1,085 40.5% 5 N/A £303 £2,000 £1,525 £1,338 N/A 6 N/A £282 N/A £1,395 £839 N/A House £712 £718 £746 £750 £733 5.3% 0 £685 £610 £892 £903 £808 31.7% 1 £464 £438 £429 £463 £448 -0.2% 2 £580 £584 £603 £606 £594 4.5% 3 £683 £709 £706 £715 £705 4.7% 4 £1,012 £1,006 £1,067 £1,095 £1,048 8.2% 5 £1,456 £1,276 £1,398 £1,627 £1,436 11.7% 6 £1,337 £1,105 £1,882 £2,316 £1,539 73.2% 7* £1,675 £902 £3,295 £1,350 £1,681 -19.4% 8* £278 £774 £313 £1,600 £600 476.6% 9* N/A N/A £3,500 N/A £3,500 N/A 10* N/A £270 £1,030 £1,800 £1,032 N/A Cheshire West & £669 £678 £700 £699 £688 4.4% Chester Source: Vizzihomes * based on small sample sizes

4 This data is available at spatial area level but too large to include within this report arc4 16

2.29 Table 11 illustrates rents by property type in different wards. There have been significant differential rent increases/decreases across the borough for different property types from 2009. 2.30 This data is mapped below in Maps 5 and 6.

Table 11: Rent levels by property type in Spatial Areas Spatial Area Average Average % change Average Average % change rent flat rent flat rent rent 2009 pcm 2012 pcm house house 2009 pcm 2012 pcm 11.7% Chester Urban Area £615 £626 1.8% £655 £731 Map 5: The Chester Villages £527 £564 7.0% £883 £1,017 15.2% percentage change of Cuddington and £471 £518 10.1% £949 £814 -14.2% rent levels for flats 2009- Sandiway Ellesmere Port Urban 2012 £487 £515 5.8% £600 £626 4.3% Area Farndon £517 £561 8.6% £1,002 £989 -1.3% Frodsham £553 £589 6.4% £805 £775 -3.7% Helsby £549 £530 -3.5% £804 £822 2.3% Malpas 375 £325 -13.3% £720 £858 19.1% Neston 530 £537 1.4% £752 £724 -3.6% Northwich Urban Area £511 £498 -2.4% £637 £655 2.8% Rural East £736 £826 12.2% £1,032 £1,136 10.1% Rural North £614 £776 26.4% £820 £938 14.4% Tarporley £476 £585 23.1% £1,005 £936 -6.9% Tarvin and Kelsall £605 £598 -1.1% £845 £940 11.2% Tattenhall £496 £545 10.0% £1,031 £946 -8.2% Winsford Urban Area £495 £481 -2.9% £626 £609 -2.6% Cheshire West & £580 £590 1.7% £712 £750 5.3% Chester Source: Vizzihomes

Map 6: The percentage change of rent levels for houses 2009-2012

arc4 17 Affordability 2.31 We have considered two types of affordability in Cheshire West and Chester. The affordability for households dependent on Local Housing Allowance and the affordability for economically active households. 2.32 We have reviewed all of the properties that came onto the market in each year from 2009 to 2012 (3,572) and compared the rent levels with the Local Housing Allowance caps for Cheshire West and Chester. We have then recorded the number of properties that were available within the LHA caps by bed size and expressed this as a percentage of all of that property type available. The results are shown in Table 12.5 2.33 Since 2009, 15.4% of all properties coming to the market have been within the Local Housing Allowance caps but this reduced to 13.3% in 2012. This is very low compared to other authorities analysed by arc4, where levels are usually around 30-45%. 2.34 During the four year period, only three bed-sits/shared rooms were available within Local Housing Allowance levels. It is very likely that this type of property is available but not advertised through letting agents but given that, it is also likely that it is of a lower quality and management standard than properties let through managing agents.

Table 12: Affordability by property size No of beds 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total No No % No % No % No % No % Bed sit 0 0.0% 2 2.0% 1 0.5% 0 0.0% 3 0.5 1 168 24.8% 184 26.7% 230 26.8% 217 24.7% 799 25.7 2 236 10.5% 201 9.2% 217 8.0% 222 8.0% 876 8.8 3 382 26.6% 312 20.8% 303 17.0% 332 16.9% 1329 19.8 4 127 25.1% 115 21.5% 118 20.1% 95 15.1% 455 20.1 5 13 11.8% 21 16.9% 14 10.5% 0 0.0% 48 9.8 6 9 36.0% 19 48.7% 13 41.9% 0 0.0% 41 37.2 7* 2 66.7% 4 57.1% 1 25.0% 0 0.0% 7 41.1 8* 4 100.0% 3 60.0% 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 9 75 9* 0 0 1 100.0% 2 50.0% 0 0.0% 3 11.1 10* 2 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Cheshire West & Chester 943 18.4% 862 16.6% 901 14.2% 866 13.3% 3572 15.4% Source: Vizzihomes * Based on small sample sizes. The property with 19 bedrooms has been removed from this analysis

5 LHA Caps were only introduced in 2011 but for the purposes of this report we have assumed they have always been in place. arc4 18

2.35 The LHA caps are forecast to increase by 1% in 2014 and 2015. Therefore given previous rent increases in Cheshire West and Chester, the proportion of properties affordable within LHA caps is likely to reduce over the next two years. Because the rent increases are different in different locations it is likely that the Cheshire West and Chester market will become more polarised between properties managed within LHA and those for economically active households. 2.36 Table 13, illustrates the monthly and annual net income levels that would be required to rent a property in each ward, if the rent accounted for 30% of household income. The rent levels are based on 2012 figures when lower quartile annual gross income was £17,503 and the average annual gross income was £27,0766. 2.37 There were no areas where households on lower quartile net incomes could afford average rent levels unless that used over 30% of their household income. 2.38 Households earning average household earnings could afford average rent levels in Chester Urban Area, Ellesmere Port Urban Area, Northwich Urban Area and Winsford Urban Area. 2.39 The least affordable area was Rural East and the most, Winsford Urban Area, based on average rents. 2.40 Table 14 shows the monthly and annual gross income levels that would be required to rent different property sizes. The rent levels are based on 2012 figures when lower quartile annual gross income was £17,503 and the average annual gross income was £27,0767. Households on lower quartile earning could only afford bed-sits based on a definition of spending up to 30% of household income on rent. For average earnings larger properties, four bed plus, can become unaffordable based on average rent levels.8 Table 13: Income versus rental by Spatial Area Table 14: Income versus rental by property size Spacial Area 2012 average rent Monthly Income required Annual gross Property size 2012 average Monthly Income required Annual Gross levels £ pcm for rent to be within 30% of income rent levels pcm for rent to be within 30% of income household gross income household gross income Chester Urban Area £685 £2,283 £27,393 Flat £590 £1,966 £23,592 Chester Villages £956 £3,186 £38,235 0 £404 £1,348 £16,176 Cuddington and Sandiway £737 £2,458 £29,490 1 £486 £1,621 £19,452 Ellesmere Port Urban Area £597 £1,989 £23,866 2 £631 £2,105 £25,260 Farndon £972 £3,240 £38,878 3 £792 £2,642 £31,704 Frodsham £718 £2,393 £28,722 4 £1,087 £3,624 £43,488 Helsby £776 £2,585 £31,026 5 £1,525 £5,083 £60,996 Malpas £843 £2,810 £33,726 6 £1,395 £4,650 £55,800 Neston £682 £2,273 £27,273 House £750 £2,498 £29,976 Northwich Urban Area £602 £2,007 £24,086 0 £903 £3,008 £36,100 Rural East £1,105 £3,684 £44,205 1 £463 £1,542 £18,504 Rural North £902 £3,007 £36,080 2 £606 £2,020 £24,237 Tarporley £877 £2,924 £35,091 3 £715 £2,383 £28,599 Tarvin and Kelsall £922 £3,072 £36,865 4 £1,095 £3,650 £43,805 Tattenhall £905 £3,018 £36,211 5 £1,627 £5,423 £65,076 Winsford Urban Area £590 £1,967 £23,610 6 £2,316 £7,720 £92,643 Cheshire West & Chester £699 £2,330 £27,960 7 £1,350 £4,500 £54,000 Source: Vizzihomes 8 £1,600 £5,333 £64,000 9 N/A N/A N/A 10 £1,800 £6,000 £72,000

Cheshire West & £670 £2,232 £26,784 Chester Source: Vizzihomes

** based on very small sample size

6 ONS Crown Copyright Reserved 7 ONS Crown Copyright Reserved 8 Averages will mask local geographical differences arc4 19 Properties let 2.41 The information shown in this report has used data taken from a ‘new instructions’ report. This tracks all properties that come onto a market and is based on an electronic trawl of data. It is estimated to cover 99% of the market. What is more difficult to report is how many of those properties are then let. This data is taken from a ‘weekly let’ report and relies on individual agents updating their records. Whilst we have a very good sample of properties let to identify their characteristics and the time property takes to let, it is not possible to provide the actual number of properties let. We do however; know that in Cheshire West and Chester of the 23,082 properties that came onto the market between 2009 and 2012, at least 47.8% of them were let, although likely to be much higher. 2.42 This provides us with a robust summary of the characteristics of property that get let and we have compared these below with those that came onto the market. Chart 7 illustrates the percentage of flats and houses that came onto the market compared to the percentage that were let. There is a general balance of the market which suggests properties are being let as they come onto the market.

Chart 7: The proportion of flats and houses coming onto the market and let 2009-2012

The percentage of properties that came onto the market and those let by property type 2009-2012

80 68 70 67.3

60

50

40 32 32.6 30

20

10

0 flat house

onto the mkt let

Source: Vizzihome

arc4 20 Rent differentials 2.43 The rent that property is advertised at and the rent it is let at can often be different and may demonstrate a market pressure if rents are being negotiated up or an oversupply if rents are successfully negotiated down. 2.44 Chart 8 below illustrates the percentage differences in rent negotiations from 2009-2012 over 2012 for properties coming onto the market and properties let. Rents are being negotiated upwards for flats and houses and therefore overall, given the predominance of houses coming onto the market. This could suggest an undersupply/high demand of property in the authority.

Chart 8: Rent differentials

Rent differentials of rent increases for property coming onto the market and let

9 8.1 8

7 6.7

6 5.3 5 4.4 4 3.6

3

2 1.7

1

0 House Flat All

onto market let

Source: Vizzihome

arc4 21 Time to let property 2.45 The time to let a property can indicate how popular a particular property type is, how popular an area is or whether a property is in good condition. It can also indicate an undersupply/oversupply of a particular property type. The time to let a property is a very useful measure of the health of the rental market and this section considers how long it took for property to be let after coming onto the market. 2.46 Table 15, shows the average time to let a property in weeks in each of the years 2009-2012 by ward and shows the percentage change in the number of weeks, year on year and overall from 2009 to 2012. Over 2009 to 2012, the average time it took to let property in Cheshire West and Chester was 13.1 weeks. However, during 2011 and 2012 this time reduced significantly and during 2012, the average time to let property was 8.2 weeks. 2.47 Since 2009, the time to let property has reduced by 53.7% and this reduction is reflected in all wards. This would suggest that there has been an increased demand for properties in the private rented sector over the past few years.

Table 15: Average time to let by Spatial Area Map 7: The average time to let a property in 2012 Time to let in weeks % age % age % age % age change Spatial Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average change change change 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2009-2012 Chester Urban Area 20.7 19.6 11.1 7.0 12.9 -5.4% -43.5% -37.2% -66.4% Chester Villages 14.7 20.0 11.4 8.3 12.0 35.9% -42.9% -27.7% -43.9% Cuddington and Sandiway 14.1 19.5 14.3 8.0 12.8 38.1% -26.4% -44.3% -43.4% Ellesmere Port Urban Area 15.6 19.3 13.3 7.8 13.2 23.7% -31.2% -41.1% -49.9% Farndon 20.4 25.3 11.6 8.3 14.6 24.1% -54.2% -28.6% -59.4% Frodsham 15.4 17.4 14.1 10.3 14.1 13.3% -19.1% -26.7% -32.8% Helsby 20.2 23.8 11.8 11.2 16.7 18.0% -50.3% -5.3% -44.4% Malpas 35.7 15.6 25.1 11.1 20.4 -56.4% 61.0% -55.6% -68.8% Neston 8.3 10.1 8.2 10.4 9.2 20.6% -18.9% 27.4% 24.6% Northwich Urban Area 13.5 14.6 11.6 9.2 12.0 8.2% -20.7% -20.3% -31.7% Rural East 13.8 23.9 15.8 11.2 15.7 72.9% -34.0% -28.7% -18.7% Rural North 13.3 15.3 12.7 10.1 12.1 15.2% -17.1% -21.0% -24.5% Tarporley 24.6 27.9 20.1 7.2 19.3 13.5% -27.8% -64.3% -70.8% Tarvin and Kelsall 24.8 23.8 12.5 8.1 16.5 -4.3% -47.6% -34.6% -67.2% Tattenhall 20.0 11.8 16.5 9.6 13.9 -41.1% 40.7% -41.9% -51.8% Winsford Urban Area 16.8 18.2 10.6 8.4 12.9 8.4% -41.8% -21.0% -50.1% Cheshire West & Chester 17.7 18.5 11.8 8.2 13.1 4.7% -36.2% -30.6% -53.7% Source: Vizzihomes

arc4 22 2.48 Table 16, shows the average time to let property by property type and size and the percentage change year on year and overall from 2009 to 2012. The time to let both flats and houses has reduced (60.5% and 49.4% respectively). 2.49 Flats have experienced the largest reductions in letting time in the past 12 months and the time to let 3-bedroom houses has reduced by 26.7%.

Table 16: Average time to let property by type and size 2009-12 Time to let in weeks

Property size 2009 2010 2011 2012 Overall average % age change % age change % age change % age change 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2009-2012

Flat 21.2 20.8 13.2 8.4 14.5 -1.8% -36.6% -36.5% -60.5% 0 38.0 47.7 13.8 8.3 25.5 25.6% -71.1% -40.1% -78.3% 1 23.6 25.1 14.6 8.1 16.1 6.4% -41.8% -44.7% -65.7% 2 19.2 16.7 12.5 8.6 13.1 -12.9% -25.4% -31.4% -55.4% 3 15.4 16.6 11.8 7.5 12.0 7.8% -29.3% -36.3% -51.5% 4 55.0 104.0 29.8 9.4 26.1 89.1% -71.4% -68.3% -82.8% 5 N/A N/A 9.0 9.0 9.0 N/A N/A 0.0% N/A 6 8.0 N/A N/A N/A 8.0 -100.0% N/A N/A -100.0% House 16.1 17.5 11.1 8.1 12.4 8.9% -36.4% -27.1% -49.4% 0 2.0 17.0 4.4 13.6 6.8 750.0% -74.2% 209.3% 578.6% 1 20.3 20.7 8.5 7.9 12.8 1.6% -58.7% -6.9% -61.0% 2 15.6 16.4 10.2 7.6 11.7 5.2% -37.8% -25.2% -51.0% 3 15.5 17.0 10.7 7.8 11.9 9.9% -37.2% -26.7% -49.4% 4 17.0 20.9 15.4 9.5 15.0 22.5% -25.9% -38.7% -44.4% 5 22.8 20.6 16.2 10.8 16.5 -9.7% -21.3% -33.5% -52.7% 6 11.4 5.3 9.2 19.9 11.8 -53.2% 72.5% 116.2% 74.5% 7 N/A 5.5 N/A 8.0 6.3 N/A -100.0% N/A N/A 8 N/A 8.0 N/A 3.0 5.5 N/A -100.0% N/A N/A 10 N/A N/A 6.5 2.0 5.0 N/A N/A -69.2% N/A Cheshire West & Chester 17.7 18.5 11.8 8.2 13.1 4.7% -36.2% -30.6% -53.7% Source: Vizzihomes

arc4 23 Rental yields 2.50 Table 17 provides a guide to rental yields achievable in different wards. It assumes average rent levels and average sales values9 and allows for 12% management and maintenance costs including voids and bad debts. Rental yields based on average rents and values are relatively low. The average is 3.9%. The highest rental yield is in Helsby (5.1%), the lowest yield is in Tattenhall given the high property values (2.3%).

Table 17: Rental yields by Spacial Area

Spacial Area Average sales Value 2012 Rent PCM Annual average rental income Net income 12% costs Rental yields Chester Urban Area £195,190 £685 £8,220 £7,233.60 3.7 Chester Villages £277,653 £956 £11,472 £10,095.36 3.6 Cuddington and Sandiway £240,077 £737 £8,844 £7,782.72 3.2 Ellesmere Port Urban Area £136,232 £597 £7,164 £6,304.32 4.6 Farndon £301,093 £972 £11,664 £10,264.32 3.4 Frodsham £215,429 £718 £8,616 £7,582.08 3.5 Helsby £160,685 £776 £9,312 £8,194.56 5.1 Malpas £261,605 £843 £10,116 £8,902.08 3.4 Neston £210,725 £682 £8,184 £7,201.92 3.4 Northwich Urban Area £170,117 £602 £7,224 £6,357.12 3.7 Rural East £280,389 £1,105 £13,260 £11,668.80 4.2 Rural North £221,647 £902 £10,824 £9,525.12 4.3 Tarporley £362,362 £877 £10,524 £9,261.12 2.6 Tarvin and Kelsall £270,268 £922 £11,064 £9,736.32 3.6 Tattenhall £410,959 £905 £10,860 £9,556.80 2.3 Winsford Urban Area £123,619 £590 £7,080 £6,230.40 5.0 Cheshire West & Chesire £191,335 £699 £8,388 £7,381.44 3.9 Source: Vizzihomes Average rent levels, Sales values CLG House Price Statistics; Land Registry Price Paid Dataset

9 There will be significant difference between property types and specific locations arc4 24 3. In summary and conclusion

3.1 This report has provided detailed information about the private rented market in Cheshire West and Chester since 2009.

Total stock 3.2 The Census 2011 confirms that there are 18,225 (13.2%) households living in the private rented sector in Cheshire West and Chester; this is lower than the national figure of 18.1%. The highest percentages are in Farndon (21.1%), Tattenhall (20.8%), Chester Urban Area (18.6%) and Malpas (18.4%) and are significantly larger than most of other areas. The lowest is in Cuddington and Sandiway (8%). The location of the private rented sector, by percentage of the market, is illustrated in Map 1. 3.3 There are nine spatial areas where the private rented sector is larger than the social rented sector, and these are Chester Urban Area, Chester Villages, Farndon, Frodsham, Rural East, Rural North, Tarporley, Tarvein and Kelsall and Tattenhall. In terms of numbers of units, Chester urban Area has the largest private rented sector and Cuddington and Sandiway the smallest. 3.4 Overall, the private rented sector has decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 13.2% an increase of 51.7% and as a result both the owner occupied sectors and affordable housing sectors have reduced. 3.5 All spatial areas (with the exception of Tarporley) show growth in the private rented sector. There are a number of spatial areas where the social rented sector has reduced and the private rented sector has increased such as Chester Villages, Neston and Winsford Urban Areas. This growth is likely to be through Right to Buy properties being offered for rent and is likely to be a lower value market. However, there are other wards where owner occupied property has converted to the private rented sector a nd this is more likely to be through investor markets or potentially because owners are unable to sell property e.g. Chester Urban Area and Helsby. 3.6 The sector is relatively well distributed in higher value areas and would suggest that the sector is a higher income economically active household sector providing an alternative for households unable to get onto the household ladder and households that support economic growth. There are areas where the sector is potentially an extension of the social rented sector such as Ellesmere Port Urban area and Winsford Urban Area.

Properties on the market 3.7 The total number of properties coming onto the market since 2009 to 2012 is 23,120. Overall, the total number of properties coming onto the market has increased from 5,123 in 2009 to 6,476 in 2012; an increase of 26.4%. The total numbers coming onto the market has increased year on year with 2012 seeing the largest number of properties coming onto the market during the past four years. These year-on-year increases show a steady rate of incline. 3.8 The spatial areas that have experienced the largest percentage increase in new properties coming onto the market are: Malpas (105.9%) although this is based on relatively small numbers, Neston (57.2%), Rural North (75.7%), and Winsford Urban Area (56.2%). 3.9 In terms of the total number of properties coming onto the market in the past four years, the largest numbers have been in Chester Urban Area (10,029) and the lowest number in Malpas (212). 3.10 Overall, the number of properties coming onto the market as a percentage of the total stock (as taken from the Census 2011) has increased over the past 3 years and in 2012 represented 35.5% of the total private rented stock. 3.11 The wards with the largest number of units coming onto the market as a percentage of the total private rented sector stock in 2012 were Rural North (45%), Neston (43.4%), Cuddington and Sandiway (42.8%) and Chester Urban Area (40.8%). 3.12 Flats only represent about a third of properties; the majority of properties that are on the private market are houses. There is limited choice in the private rented market for families. Two bed properties dominate the market and represent 42.9% of all properties brought to the market since 2009 and 3 bed account for 29.0% of all properties. By comparison, there are very few smaller or larger properties and only 2.3% of all properties brought onto the market in the past four years have been bed-sits and only 12.6% have over 4 beds. 3.13 This property offer is likely to create shortages of property for household affected by the shared room rate or looking for smaller accommodation and also limit options for growing families reliant on the private rented sector.

arc4 25 Rent levels 3.14 The average rent for a property in Cheshire West and Chester from 2009-2012 was £688 pcm. Since 2009, average rents in Cheshire West and Chester have increased by 4.4%, Significantly, the period in which the largest part of this increase happened was between 2010 and 2011 where average rent increased by 1.9%. Overall, rents have remained relatively stable in the past 12 months. 3.15 The overall figures mask geographical differences. The highest rent increase was in Malpas (20.4%) and the lowest was a reduction in Cuddington and Sandiway (17.5%). 3.16 Since 2009, average rents for flats have increased by 1.7%, whilst for houses the increase has been 5.3%. 4-bed flats have exhibited the largest rental increases (40.5%), possibly reflecting the short supply of this type of property in the market and the changing needs of the market; however, some of this increase can be attributed to 2010 when there was a major rise in the average rent for a 4-bedroom house. 3.17 For houses, larger rental increases have been experienced in smaller and larger properties. This is likely to be linked to the caps on LHA and that many households have chosen the private rented sector as a ‘stepping stone’ into homeownership and are renting smaller (cheaper) properties whilst they save for deposits for mortgages.

Affordability 3.18 Since 2009, 15.4% of all properties coming to the market have been within the Local Housing Allowance caps but reduced to 13.3% in 2012. This is very low compared to other authorities analysed by arc4, where levels are usually around 30-45%. 3.19 During the four year period, only three bed-sits/shared rooms were available within Local Housing Allowance levels. It is very likely that this type of property is available but not advertised through letting agents but given that, it is also likely that it is of a lower quality and management standard than properties let through managing agents. 3.20 The LHA caps are forecast to increase by 1% in 2014 and 2015. Therefore given previous rent increases in Cheshire West and Chester, the proportion of properties affordable within LHA caps is likely to reduce over the next two years. Because the rent increases are different in different locations it is likel y that Cheshire West and Chester market will become more polarised between properties managed within LHA and those for economically active households. 3.21 This will create limited choices and geographies for households dependent on local housing allowance. It is likely to worsen as local housing allowance is limited further through new government policy. Overall, the sector is low income and so the impact of welfare reforms will be significant. This may mean that:  Landlords leave the sector by choice or be forced if their properties are repossessed  Tenants may face illegal evictions  Homelessness presentations may increase  Landlords may be unable to afford to maintain their properties  There may be increased exported costs as a result of poor health and injury in the private rented sector as homes are not maintained and/or tenants cannot afford to heat them etc. This will impact on regional and local support services  The potential polarisation of the private rented sector into very poor quality and good quality, lower and higher rent levels. 3.22 There were no areas where households on lower quartile net incomes could afford average rent levels unless that used over 30% of their household income. 3.23 Households earning average household earnings could afford average rent levels in Chester Urban Area, Ellesmere Port Urban Area, Northwich Urban Area and Winsford Urban Area 3.24 The least affordable area was Rural East and the most Winsford Urban Area based on average rents.

Time to let a property 3.25 Over 2009 to 2012, the average time it took to let property in Cheshire West and Chester was 13.1 weeks. However, during 2011 and 2012 this time reduced signif icantly and during 2012, the average time to let property was 8.2 weeks. 3.26 Since 2009, the time to let property has reduced by 53.7% and this reduction is reflected in all wards. This would suggest that there has been an increased demand for properties in the private rented sector over the past few years. arc4 26 3.27 The time to let both flats and houses has reduced (60.5% and 49.4% respectively). 3.28 Flats have experienced the largest reductions in letting time in the past 12 months and the time to let 3-bedroom houses has reduced by 26.7%.

Rental yields 3.29 Rental yields based on average rents and values are relatively low. The average is 3.9%. The highest rental yield is in Helsby (5.1%), the lowest yield is in Tattenhall given the high property values (2.3%).

The emerging markets 3.30 We are seeing three potential types of markets:  Markets where there are relatively buoyant sales but low percentages of private rented properties. Here we assume that properties are primarily being sold to owner occupied markets. These would include Chester Villages, Cuddington and Sandiway and Neston.  Relatively buoyant sales markets with corresponding high private rented sectors. This includes Farndon and Malpas  Slow sales markets but high levels of private rented housing, where potentially owner occupied properties are being converted to the private rented sector, potentially if properties cannot be sold or the sector is already well established such as Tattenhall.

arc4 27