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This product is part of the RAND Corporation reprint series. RAND reprints reproduce previously published journal articles and book chapters with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints have been formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher’s editorial policy. Conflict&Security

Demographics and Security in Maritime Southeast Asia

Brian Nichiporuk, Clifford Grammich Angel Rabasa, and Julie DaVanzo

With a population of about 325 million, Maritime Southeast Brian Nichiporuk is a political scientist at the Asia—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore—is RAND Corporation. an area of significant economic and security interests for the Clifford Grammich United States. These interests are four fold. First, the United is a member of the States seeks to maintain open sea lanes through the region, RAND Research Com- especially through the Straits of Malacca, through which much munication Group. Persian Gulf oil is shipped to East Asia. Second, the moderate Angel Rabasa is a senior policy analyst at Islam practiced in the region can help offset radical Islamist the RAND Corpora- movements elsewhere. Third, Washington seeks to prevent ter- tion. rorist infrastructure from developing in the dense jungles of Julie DaVanzo the region. And fourth, the United States needs to build directs the Population Matters program at the strong strategic relationships in the region to assure access for RAND Corporation. American air and naval forces. This article analyzes how demographic factors are affecting the security environment of Southeast Asia and examines the resulting security implica- tions for the United States. The current annual population growth rate of the region (1.38 percent) exceeds that for the rest of the world (1.17 per- cent).1 The region is also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, nearly 200 million, with 177 million in Indonesia alone and a Muslim majority in Malaysia as well.

Winter/Spring 2006 [83] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA

Muslims are a minority in the Philip- or other powers). Demographic variables pines and Singapore; however, the Mus- such as population age structure, partic- lim population is also growing faster than ularly the number of persons of military the total populations in Indonesia, the age, can affect the nature of power in a Philippines, and Malaysia.2 state. Demographic changes such as The prominence of the Muslim pop- migration affect the sources of conflict by ulation in the region makes the relation- increasing tensions between states or ship between Islam and the state an altering the domestic policies of a given important part of regional politics. This state so that it becomes a security prob- relationship has recently been marred by lem for its neighbors. violence such as the terrorist bombings in Bali and Jakarta in recent years as well Urbanization: Shifting the as the growth of radical Islamist organiza- Locus of Politics and Conflict. tions and parties, the emergence of Like the rest of the world, Maritime extremist and terrorist groups, and sepa- Southeast Asia is becoming more urban. ratist movements in Mindanao and Aceh In 1980 just over one in four persons in in Indonesia. Such insurgency represents the region lived in urban areas; in 2000 the greatest threat to security in a region nearly half did.3 Jakarta and Manila are where there is currently little risk of con- among the largest metropolitan areas in flict between states. the world. Increasing urban populations While the religious characteristics are mean the cities of the region will become perhaps the most distinctive demographic even more important economic, politi- features of the region, other demograph- cal, and social centers. ic characteristics merit consideration as As a result of urbanization, there has well. Demographic trends such as urban- been a political shift in the region from ization, migration, and population traditional rural leadership to new types growth affect security issues confronting of urban leadership. In Malaysia, for the region. These trends also shape avail- example, Malay political organizations able responses to security issues. have been based in rural areas where Urbanization and population disper- Malays were more numerous, and ethnic sion can affect the nature and conduct of Chinese have been more prevalent in conflict by influencing its environment urban politics, reflecting traditional dif-

As rural Malays have moved to urban areas and traditional family and village bonds have weakened, Islam has grown as a source of political identity.

(e.g., creating new areas of conflict) or ferences in the distribution of the popu- instruments (e.g., diasporas seeking to lation. As rural Malays have moved to advance the interests of their home states urban areas and traditional family and

[84] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs NICHIPORUK, GRAMMICH, RABASA, & DAVANZO Conflict&Security village bonds have weakened, Islam has migratory flows. Improvements in com- grown as a source of political identity. munications and information technology Urban areas with ease of communica- allow leaders of these communities tions and concentrations of peoples with greater means to call attention to issues of shared political experiences can facilitate interest in their home countries or to revolutionary movements. The People help their home countries or territories Power movements of 1986 and 2001 in achieve political or military objectives. the Philippines as well as the Indonesian Both Indonesia and the Philippines anti-government demonstrations of have a substantial number of nationals 1998 were all urban-based movements. overseas and relatively high net emigra- Urban areas, particularly those with uni- tion in recent years.8 In addition, there versities, can be fertile grounds for new are more than one million Filipinos who political movements in proselytizing, work abroad—nearly all as contract work- recruiting, and developing new leader- ers—and return to the Philippines; more ship. In Indonesia the most dynamic than one in four of whom work in Saudi Islamist political forces have been Arabia.9 Remittances from overseas increasingly based in urban and universi- workers—estimated in recent years to be ty communities.4 The Islamic Youth 0.6 percent of the Filipino GDP and 0.2 Movement of Malaysia (Angkatan Belia percent of the Indonesian GDP—consti- Islam Malaysia), a university-based orga- tute small but noticeable portions of the nization, provided much of the leader- Filipino and Indonesian economies.10 Of ship and ideology for the Pan-Malay particular interest for analysis of demo- Islamic Party.5 The small but dynamic graphics and security, especially that rel- Prosperous Justice Party in Indonesia, evant to U.S. interest in promoting led by graduates of Indonesian and West- moderate social and political movements ern universities, originated in Islamic in the Muslim world, is how diasporas study circles at Indonesian universities.6 may help transmit Islamic militancy to Operationally, the infrastructure of Southeast Asia. For example, Filipino urban areas can provide cover and greater workers returning from the Persian Gulf ease of communication for armed clan- could, conceivably, bring Wahhabist destine militants. Because cities have beliefs and doctrines with them. substantive and symbolically important Beyond these returning workers, there targets and because news media are more are also longstanding Arab communities concentrated and less likely to be restrict- in the region, but the variety of influences ed by government there, operations in on the Muslim community have led some urban settings can have a greater impact to label it the least “Arabized” of leading than those in rural areas. Muslim communities.11 Individuals of Arab origin are, for the most part, well Ethnic Diasporas: Transmitting integrated into local societies. For exam- Conflict? Diasporas to and from a ple, the Hadrami (Yemeni) diaspora, region can also affect the nature of con- numbering about five million in the flict. In recent decades, diasporas have region, includes a community whose increased in size, visibility, and influ- wealth is among the greatest in the region, ence.7 More rapid and widespread long- as well as persons who have served as for- range transportation has permitted larger eign ministers in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Winter/Spring 2006 [85] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA

Still, the local Arab diaspora, particu- long distances between such islands and larly its newer elements, may serve as major military concentrations would either a liaison or camouflage for Middle mean any government response to such Eastern terrorists. Islamic radicals of campaigns would likely be slow. No Arab background in the region include Southeast Asian military has sufficient the founders of Jemaah Islamiyah across long-range capability to transfer its mili- the region and the leaders of Laskar Jihad tary forces rapidly by sea or air. The and of the Front Pembela Islam (Islam Indonesian Air Force, for example, has Defenders Front) in Indonesia. The only 18 C-130 aircraft, a single Boeing Yemeni diaspora could serve as a demo- 707, and a smattering of Cessnas for graphic “beachhead” for the radical Mid- troop support, while the Filipino Army dle Eastern and South Asian Islamists has only 2 squadrons of aging transport seeking to infuse Malay ethnicity with helicopters.14 Such equipment is clearly Salafism and Wahhabism. not sufficient for rapid transport of large numbers of troops to outlying islands. Population Dispersion: A Chal- The December 2004 tsunami illustrated lenge to Weak Central Authori- how poor strategic mobility and geo- ties. Wide population distribution and graphically dispersed populations can varying population density can have secu- hamper indigenous military responses. rity implications. Population density Indonesian Kalimantan provides a across Indonesia’s more than 17,000 recent example of how population dis- islands is 109 persons per km2, but varies persion and weak central government from 6 in Papua, the site of a separatist authority can facilitate ethnic cleansing. movement in extreme eastern Indonesia, Transmigration (discussed further to more than 12,000 in Jakarta.12 Popula- below) to Kalimantan, including a half tion density across the more geographi- million Madurese migrants to West Kali- cally compact Philippines is 255 persons mantan, first stirred conflict by displac- per km2, ranging from 24 in Apayao ing the indigenous Dayak population that province of the Cordillera Administrative depends on hunting and slash-and-burn Region to more than 88,000 in Navotas agriculture. Periodic violence since 1996 province in the National Capital Region.13 has led to the deaths of hundreds and Such widely dispersed populations displacement of thousands of Madurese. may facilitate campaigns of “ethnic Settlement patterns also contributed to cleansing” on sparsely populated islands this violence. Though less densely popu- far removed from central military lated than other areas of Indonesia, Kali- authorities. Both the Indonesian and mantan has ethnically mixed settlement Filipino archipelagos have islands with patterns that prevented the Madurese ethnically mixed populations. If provin- from consolidating themselves into a few cial political and security arrangements defensible enclaves, making them vul- were to crack, ethnic cleansing campaigns nerable to attacks by the majority Dayaks. by local radicals might succeed for two Perhaps even more importantly, the reasons. First, low population densities approximately 500 kilometers separating would prevent the target ethnic group Kalimantan from the main Indonesian from concentrating its self-defense capa- military garrisons on Java prevented bilities in any meaningful way. Second, rapid military intervention that could

[86] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs NICHIPORUK, GRAMMICH, RABASA, & DAVANZO Conflict&Security have halted the violence. The situation resistance by indigenous peoples to was further exacerbated in 2001 by the Jakarta’s integrationist policies. fact that Indonesian military and security Migration in the Philippines to Min- forces were overstretched fighting ethnic danao has likewise stirred conflict and separatist conflicts elsewhere, between ethnic groups. The population including those between Muslims and of Mindanao was 50 percent Muslim in Christians in Maluku and the ethnic the early 20th century before migration— Acehnese uprising in northern Sumatra. driven by colonial and independent gov- ernment policies for greater cultural, Migration: Igniting Conflict economic, and political integration of from Longstanding Divisions. the island with the rest of the archipel- The communal violence in Kalimantan, ago—helped reduce it to 18 percent as noted, has its origins in Indonesian today.16 Although there was little armed transmigration programs. Much of the conflict between Muslims and Christians communal conflict in eastern Indonesia before the mid-1970s, when the Nation- and the southern Philippines has al Moro Liberation Front launched the occurred where the demographic balance secessionist struggle, these government has been altered by government-induced policies fuelled Muslim perceptions that internal migration. their community was endangered and Internal migration in Indonesia has thereby secession sentiment. In recent occurred spontaneously and as part of decades, a more Islamist insurgency government transmigration policies pur- movement, represented by the Moro sued by both Dutch colonial administra- Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), has tors and the independent government. mobilized an estimated 18,000 fighters. The transmigration policy sought to Large-scale government offensives in

The local Arab diaspora, particularly its newer elements, may serve as either a liaison or camouflage for Middle Eastern terrorists. transfer population from overcrowded early 2003, and what appears to be a islands such as Java and Madura to less more pragmatic approach by new MILF populated ones, as well as to assimilate leadership, have led to the resumption of indigenous populations into the nation- settlement talks. al mainstream. During its peak in the While the communal struggle in east- 1980s and 1990s, transmigration ern Indonesia and the separatist insur- involved more than five million per- gency in the Muslim areas of the Philip- sons.15 In Kalimantan, Dayak animosity pines have local roots, external parties toward the newcomers was fuelled by the have sought to promote a broader economic and social marginalization of Islamist struggle. Al Qaeda has sought a the Dayak people under the Suharto role in Southeast Asia since the early regime. Such violence can be understood 1990s by helping to establish the Abu as a continuation and accentuation of Sayyaf Group and finance the MILF. Al

Winter/Spring 2006 [87] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA

Qaeda’s ability to infiltrate the region was tic wartime defense duties while an elite facilitated by participation of several group handles more complicated opera- hundred Southeast Asian volunteers in tions of warfare or counterinsurgency. the Afghan War. Al Qaeda and its associ- The greater challenge for Indonesia ated Southeast Asian group, the Jemaah and the Philippines may be developing Islamiyah, also placed a large number of the capital-intensive forces required to instructors in training camps in Indone- face extensive near- and far-term threats. sia and the Philippines.17 This conflict is highlighted by the July 2002 admission from the Indonesian Population Age Structure: Shap- chief of naval staff that no vessels were ing the Available Responses. How combat ready and only a few ships were are demographic variables affecting the less than ten years old. This leaves resources Southeast Asian states have to Indonesia unable to patrol its territorial confront security challenges? Tradition- waters and subject to the highest number ally, quantity has counted for a lot in of pirate attacks in the world.18 Funding security and military issues, leading shortages have also prevented the Filipino nations to raise large conscript armies military from developing the air mobili- and reserve forces to battle over extended ty needed to conduct effective counterin- fronts. Military-age male youth cohorts surgency operations. Per capita military (i.e., 15-24) are projected to increase in expenditures in both these nations are each of these nations incoming years. In only a fraction of the global level. Popu- Indonesia and the Philippines, these lation growth among youth populations cohorts far exceed the number of persons and concomitant demands for social in the current armed forces, who in turn spending, particularly on education and account for less than 0.5 percent of the health programs, could also limit funds total labor force (compared to just over for military investment. 1.0 percent in the United States). Demographics pose several unique Today, many militaries may face a constraints to the power of Singapore. A tradeoff between investing in more per- nation of more than four million per- sonnel or technology in order to main- sons on a landmass about three times the

It is only a matter of time before there is a convergence between those with hostile intent and those with techno-savvy—where the real bad guys exploit the real good stuff. tain their power. Developing states facing size of Washington, D.C., has, of course, conflicting demands of domestic politics no strategic depth. Through heavy use of and military investment may create bifur- conscripts—including nearly two-thirds cated forces dominated by low-quality of its military personnel—Singapore has infantry units for internal policing or sta- built a military that is quite large in rela-

[88] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs NICHIPORUK, GRAMMICH, RABASA, & DAVANZO Conflict&Security tion to its population, but one that may on urban terrain. not be able to grow much further. Active Though the region is urbanizing, and reserve forces comprise about three- Indonesia, the Philippines, and perhaps fourths of the population of male citizens even Malaysia will still face security chal- 20-to-39 years of age (the ages of oblig- lenges in rural areas. The Indonesian atory military service or annual reserve and Filipino militaries already struggle to training). Immigration, which has meet existing security challenges boosted Singaporean population growth, throughout their territory. The United could, theoretically, boost the numbers States may wish to boost security in the on which Singapore may base some of its region by providing sealift and airlift power. Immigration may also, however, equipment and support. In particular, present its own challenges. Immigration the United States should consider reori- has led to more rapid growth in the for- enting its arms sales in the region to eign population than in the native popu- emphasize air and sealift platforms for lation (though foreign population internal security forces and to deempha- growth has slowed recently).19 Among size sophisticated systems (e.g., advanced permanent Singapore residents, popula- fighter aircraft) that might provoke ten- tion growth and fertility rates are now sions between states. Transport ships and lowest for the Chinese majority.20 (Singa- planes would help government forces pore is the only nation in the region to squelch violence in distant provinces have fertility levels below those needed more rapidly. for population replacement.) Such More generally, maintaining the via- trends, should they continue, may limit bility of the Association of Southeast the ability of Singapore to maintain a Asian Nations (ASEAN), securing large well-integrated military. regional borders, and perhaps providing more development aid can help main- Conclusions and Implications tain and improve regional security. for the U.S. The impact of demo- Washington should work hard to main- graphic variables on security in Maritime tain ASEAN as a viable diplomatic orga- Southeast Asia poses several policy impli- nization and “firewall” against interstate cations for the region and the United conflicts in Southeast Asia. This would States. The continuing urbanization of allow regional states to focus more on the region means urban areas are likely to counterterrorism. become more frequent sites of armed Improving customs and border con- conflict. Urban areas that are home to trol services may help reduce the move- many recent migrants may in particular ment of insurrectionists from elsewhere, prove to be fertile ground for radical and particularly those seeking to take advan- revolutionary groups. U.S. military tage of demographic tensions. The forces that might be asked to undertake United States should therefore increase counterterrorism missions in Maritime support to regional border control Southeast Asia must therefore be fully authorities. Southeast Asian border trained in urban warfare. The Depart- control agencies could benefit from ment of Defense should consider estab- training by the U.S. Border Patrol. The lishing a training complex in the region United States could also provide devoted exclusively to military operations advanced border surveillance technolo-

Winter/Spring 2006 [89] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA gies and database software programs against the latent military power of allowing for rapid identification of Malaysia and Indonesia. Over the long international travelers in the region. term, low fertility in Singapore may lim- Development aid could help reduce it how much the country can modernize tensions resulting from demographic its own armed forces. American policy- changes, although the United States, if makers need to consider how to address offering such aid, should consider sev- Singapore’s potential security concerns eral questions in targeting and selecting without unduly provoking Indonesia or partners for aid programs. For example, Malaysia. Should Singapore seek contin- given urbanization in the region, should uing investments in military technology development programs help nations rather than personnel, it might pursue alleviate poverty in increasingly isolated such investments as more F-16 fighters, rural areas or should they address prob- guided missile frigates, and diesel sub- lems of urbanization? In dealing with marines, though such acquisitions could the Muslim majority of the region, what threaten and thereby increase tensions further information is needed to iden- with Malaysia. tify appropriate partners for develop- In addition, the relationship ment programs? between demographic variables and Most of the implications and policy tensions involving the ethnic Chinese prescriptions above apply to the three community bears further study. There larger nations of Maritime Southeast is evidence that the presence of minor- Asia, but others for Singapore merit ity ethnic Chinese populations in attention as well. As the only urban state Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philip- of the region and the only one whose pines and reactions to them can pose population may not be able to yield its security challenges. The economic desired number of military personnel, power of these communities can help Singapore has three options to maintain ensure the economic stability of Mar- its military prowess: expand the popula- itime Southeast Asia. Accordingly, the tion of persons eligible for military ser- United States may wish to encourage vice, invest more in military hardware, or Southeast Asian governments to ensure seek other security guarantees. Of the security of ethnic Chinese commu- course, the imperative for defense mod- nities, as their continued presence will ernization in Singapore depends upon also support political secularism in threats it perceives from its neighbors. Southeast Asia, thereby weakening the The options proposed here assume Sin- momentum of fundamentalist Islamic gapore will continue to need a hedge movements in the region.

NOTES

1 Authors’ calculations based on United Nations 4 Angel Rabasa, Political Islam in Southeast Asia, Oxford: Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Oxford University Press, Adelphi Papers No. 358, Revision, New York, 2004. August 2003; Zachary Abuza, Militant Islam in Southeast 2 Philippines National Statistics Office, Asia: Crucible of Terror (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, “Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao: Nine in 2003). Every Ten Persons Were Muslims,” 15 July 2003. 5 Ibid. 3 United Nations Population Division, World Urban- 6 Ibid. ization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, New York, 2004. 7 Myron Weiner, “Security, Stability, and Interna-

[90] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs NICHIPORUK, GRAMMICH, RABASA, & DAVANZO Conflict&Security tional Migration,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 3, 15 M. Adriana Sri Adhiati and Armin Bobsien, Winter 1992-93, pp. 91-126. eds., Indonesia’s Transmigration Programme—An Update: A Report 8 United Nations Population Division, International Prepared for Down to Earth (London: International Cam- Migration Report 2002, New York, 2002. paign for Ecological Justice in Indonesia, July 2001). 9 Philippines National Statistics Office, “2002 16 Samuel K. Tan, “The Socio-Economic Dimen- Survey on Overseas Filipinos,” 23 April 2002. sion of Moro Secessionism,” Mindanao Studies 10 Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Reports No. 1, 1995, as cited in Amina Rasul, The Road Jahjah, “Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of to Peace and Reconciliation: Muslim Perspectives on the Mindanao Capital for Development?” International Monetary Conflict (Makati City, Philippines: Asian Institute of Fund Working Paper WP/03/189, September 2003. Management Policy Center, 2003). 11 Azyumardi Azra, Rector, Indonesian State 17 Abuza, Militant Islam in Southeast Asia, especially pp. Islamic University, Interview with Angel Rabasa, Jakar- 13-20. ta, June 2002. 18 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The 12 Statistics Indonesia, “Population Density per Military Balance. Square Kilometer by Province,” 2000. 19 Tan Yeow Lip, “Singapore’s Current Population 13 Republic of the Philippines, National Statistics Trends,” Statistics Singapore Newsletter, September 2002; Office, “Total Population, Number of Households, Edmond Lee Eu Fah and Yeo Yen Fang, “Singapore’s Average Household Size, Population Growth Rate and Demographic Trends in 2002,” Statistics Singapore Population Density by Region, Province, and Highly Newsletter, September 2003. Urbanized City,” 2000. 20 Singapore Department of Statistics, “Key Indi- 14 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The cators of the Resident Population,” 2000; Edmond Military Balance, London: Oxford University Press, Lee Eu Fah and Yeo Yen Fang, “Singapore’s Demo- annual. graphic Trends in 2002.”

Winter/Spring 2006 [91] RAND 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407 Labor and Population Reprint Series 2006 Series Order Number Number Title Author

06-02 RP-1219 Demographics and Security in Maritime Southeast Asia [In Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol 7, No. 1, pp. Brian Nichiporuk, 83-91, Winter/Spring 2006] Clifford Grammich, Angel Rabasa and Julie DaVanzo

06-01 RP-1206 Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom [In The American Orazio P. Attanasio Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 5, pp. 1499-1521, December 2003] Susann Rohwedder

2005 Series Order Number Number Title Author

05-05 RP-1199 Socioeconomic Differences in the Adoption of New Medical Technologies [In The American Economic Review, Vol. 95, Dana Goldman No. 2, pp. 234-237, May 2005] James P. Smith 05-04 RP-1195 Demographics and Security: The Contrasting Cases of Pakistan and Bangladesh [In Journal of South Asian and Middle C. Christine Fair Eastern Studies, Vol. XXVII, No. 4, Summer 2005, pp. 53-76 .] Clifford Grammich Julie DaVanzo Brian Nichiporuk 05-03 RP-1170 Unraveling the SES-Health Connection [in Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives, a James P. Smith supplement to Population and Development Review Vol. 30, 2005, pp.108-132.] 05-02 RP-1154 Immigration Status and Health Insurance Coverage: Who Gains? Who Loses? [in American Journal of Public Health, Julia C. Prentice Vol. 95, 2005, pp. 865-886.] Anne R. Pebley Narayan Sastry 05-01 RP-1152 A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload [in Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 39, No. 4, Fall 2004, pp. 49-70.] Jacob Alex Klerman Steven Haider

2004 Series Order Number Number Title Author

04-10 RP-1111 The Impact of Wives’ Earnings on Earnings Inequality Among Married-Couple Households in Malaysia [in Journal of Shahina Amin Asian Economics, Vol. 15, 2004, pp. 49-70.] Julie DaVanzo 04-09 RP-1142 Trends in Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in Developing Countries: The case of child survival in Sao Paulo, Narayan Sastry Brazil, [in Demography, Vol. 41, No. 3, August 2004, pp. 443-464.] 04-08 RP-1148 Changes in American Opinion about Family Planning [in Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 35, No. 3, September 2004, pp. Clifford Grammich, 197-206.] Julie Davanzo and Kate Stewart 04-07 RP-1087 Why Did the Welfare Rolls Fall During the 1990’s? The Importance of Entry [in The American Economic Review (Papers Jeffrey Grogger, and Proceedings), Vol. 93, No. 2, May 2003, pp. 288-292.] Steven J. Haider, and Jacob Alex Klerman 04-06 RP-1122 Neighborhoods, Poverty, and Children’s Well-being [in Social Inequality, Chapter 3, Kathryn M. Neckerman, ed. Russell Narayan Sastry Sage Foundation: New York, 2004.] 04-05 RP-1115 Urbanization, development, and under-five mortality differentials by place of residence in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1970-1991, Narayan Sastry [in Demographic Research: Special Collection 2, Article 14, April 16, 2004, pp. 356-386.] 04-04 RP-1094 Assimilation across the Latino Generations [in American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 2, May 2003, pp. 315-319.] James P. Smith 04-03 RP-1104 Early Origins of the Gradient: The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Status and Infant Mortality in the United States Brian Karl Finch [in Demography, Vol. 40, No. 4, November 2003, pp. 675-699.] 04-02 RP-1105 An Investigation of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Birthweight in Chicago Neighborhoods [in Demography, Vol. 40, No. Narayan Sastry and 4, November 2003, pp. 701-725.] Jon M. Hussey 04-01 RP-1102 Economic downturns and schooling inequality, Cameroon, 1987-95. [in Population Studies, Vol. 57, No. 2, 2003, pp. 183- Parfait M. Eloundou- 197.] Enyegue Julie DaVanzo

2003 Series Order Number Number Title Author

03-11 RP-1089 Trends and Projections in Income Replacement during Retirement [in Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. James P. Smith 755-781]

To order a reprint, free of charge, please call RAND Distribution Services at 310.451.7002. For reprints prior to 1999, please see our web page. http://www.rand.org/labor/ 03-10 RP-1079 Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS [in The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. Michael Hurd 38, No. 3, pp. 758-772] J. Thomas Juster James P. Smith

03-09 RP-1078 Too Few Good Men: The Security Implications of Russian Demographics [in Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Julie DaVanzo Summer/Fall 2003, pp. 17-26] Olga Oliker Clifford Grammich

03-08 RP-1080 The Relationship Between The Economy and the Welfare Caseload: A Dynamic Approach [in Worker Well-being and Steven J. Haider Public Policy, Research in Labor Economics, Vol. 22, 2003, pp. 39-69] Jacob Alex Klerman Elizabeth Roth

03-07 RP-1066 Economic Shocks, Wealth, and Welfare [in The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 38, No.2, pp.280-321] Elizabeth Frankenberg James P. Smith Duncan Thomas

03-06 RP-1065 Introduction to the JHR’s Special Issue on Cross-National Comparative Research Using Panel Surveys [in The Journal of James P. Smith Human Resources, Vol. 38, No.2, pp.231-240] Frank Stafford James R. Walker

03-05 RP-1064 Understanding Differences in Household Financial Wealth between the United States and Great Britain [in The Journal of James Banks Human Resources, Vol. 38, No.2, pp.241-279] Richard Blundell James P. Smith

03-04 RP-1061 Remembrances of Things Past: Test-Retest Reliability of Retrospective Migration Histories James P. Smith [in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society, A, 2003, Part 1, pp.23-49] Duncan Thomas

03-03 RP-1057 Regional Demographics and the War on Terrorism Brian Nichiporuk [in RUSI Journal - The Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies – February 2003, Vol. 148, No.1, pp. 22-29]

03-02 RP-1056 Can Patient Self-Management Help Explain the SES Health Gradient? Dana P. Goldman [in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol.99, No. 16, pp.10929-10934] James P. Smith

03-01 RP-1055 Longer-term Effects of Head Start Eliana Garces [in The American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 4, 2002, pp. 999-1012] Duncan Thomas Janet Currie

2002 Series Order Number Number Title Author

RP-1005 Beyond Medi-Cal: Health Insurance Coverage among Former Welfare Recipients Carole Roan Gresenz 02-11 Jacob Alex Klerman 02-10 RP-1014 Social Environment, Life Challenge, and Health Among the Elderly in Taiwan Megan Beckett [in Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2002, pp. 191-209] Noreen Goldman Maxine Weinstein I-fen Lin Yi-li Chuang 02-09 RP-1016 Nonmarital Childbearing: Influences of Education, Marriage, and Fertility Dawn M. Upchurch [in Demography, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2002, pp. 311-329] Lee A. Lillard Constantijn W.A. Panis 02-08 RP-1013 On the Back of Blacks? Immigrants and the Fortunes of African Americans Nelson Lim [in Strangers at the Gates: New Immigrants in Urban America, 2001, pp. 186-227]

02-07 RP-1007 Medi-Cal After Welfare Reform: Enrollment Among Former WelfareR ecipients Amy G. Cox [in Medi_Cal Policy Institute, Issue Brief Number 4, 2001, pp. 1-12] Jacob Alex Klerman Ingrid Aguirre Happoldt 02-06 RP-995 Using Quantitative & Qualitative Research Methodologies for Understanding Infant Feeding Practices (Chapter 2) Barthélémy Kuate-Defo (part 1) [in Nutrition and Child Health in Cameroon, Barthélémy Kuate-Defo (ed.), 2001, pp. 53-78] Julie DaVanzo Joanne Leslie

To order a reprint, free of charge, please call RAND Distribution Services at 310.451.7002. For reprints prior to 1999, please see our web page. http://www.rand.org/labor/ 02-05 RP-995 Infant Feeding and Weaning Practices in the North-West and South-West Provinces of Cameroon: Evidence from Focus Barthélémy Kuate-Defo (part 2) Group Discussions (Chapter 13) Martina Baye [in Nutrition and Child Health in Cameroon, Barthélémy Kuate-Defo (ed.), 2001, pp. 247-266] Roger Seukap Joanne Leslie Julie DaVanzo 02-05 RP-998 Forest Fires, Air Pollution, and Mortality in Southeast Asia Narayan Sastry [in Demography, Vol. 39, No. 1, 2001, pp. 1-23] 02-04 RP-994 Anticipated and Actual Bequests Michael D. Hurd [in Themes in the Economics of Aging, David A. Wise (ed.), 2001, pp. 357-391] James P. Smith 02-03 RP-1000 Mortality and Sample Selection: Reply to Noymer Megan K. Beckett [in Journal of Health & Social Behavior, Vol. 42, No. 3, 2001, pp. 328-331] Marc N. Elliott 02-02 RP-993 Do Better Family Planning Services Reduce Abortion in Bangladesh? Mizanur Rahman [in The Lancet, Vol. 358, No. 9287, 2001, pp. 1051-1056] Julie DaVanzo Abdur Razzaque

2001

Series Order Number Number Title Author

01-08 RP-965 Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition in the Indonesian Family Life Survey Duncan Thomas [in Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 36, No. 3, 2001, pp. 556-592] Elizabeth Frankenberg James P. Smith 01-07 RP-964 Bargaining Power Within Couples and Use of Prenatal and Delivery Care in Indonesia Kathleen Beegle [In Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 32, No. 2, June 2001, pp. 130-146] Elizabeth Frankenberg Duncan Thomas 01-06 RP-966 Comments on: Explaining Recent Declines in Food Stamp Program Participation Robert F. Schoeni [In Brookings – Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs 2001, W.G. Gale and J.R. Pack (eds.), 2001, pp. 236-241 01-05 RP-956 The Quality of Retrospective Data: An Examination of Long-Term Recall in a Developing Country Megan Beckett [In The Journal of Human Resources,Vol.36, No.3, 2001, pp. 593-625] Julie DaVanzo Narayan Sastry Constantijn Panis Christine Peterson 01-04 RP-953 Why Is Wealth Inequality Rising? James P. Smith [In The Causes and Consequences of Increasing Inequality, Finis Welch (ed), 2001, pp. 83-115] 01-03 RP-945 Commentary: Methodological Biases in Estimating the Burden of Out-of-Pocket Expenses Dana P. Goldman [In Health Services Research, Vol. 35(6), 2001, pp. 1357-1365] James P. Smith 01-02 RP-936 Race and Ethnicity in the Labor Market: Trends Over the Short and Long Term James P. Smith [In America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Vol. II, Neil J. Smelser, et al. (eds), 2001, pp. 52-97] 01-01 RP-923 The Importance of International Demographic Research for the United States Narayan Sastry [In Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 19, 2000, pp. 199-232

2000

Series Order Number Number Title Author

00-08 RP-924 Forecasting Enrollments for Immigrant Entry-port School Districts Peter A. Morrison [In Demography, Vol. 37, No. 4, November 2000, pp. 499-510] 00-07 RP-916 Trends in Long-run Versus Cross-section Earnings Inequality in the 1970s and 1980s Jeremy Arkes [In Review of Income and Wealth, Series 44, No. 2, June 1998, pp. 199-213] 00-06 RP-884 Converging Health Inequalities in Later Life—an Artifact of Mortality Selection? Megan Beckett [In Journal of Health and Social Behavior, Vol. 41, March 2000, pp. 106-119] 00-05 RP-882 Do Health Interview Surveys Yield Reliable Data on Chronic Illness Among Older Respondents Megan Beckett [In Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 151, No. 3, 2000, pp. 315–323] Maxine Weinstein Noreen Goldman Lin Yu-Hsuan 00-04 RP-891 Wives' Earnings and the Level and Distribution of Married Couples' Earnings in Developed Countries Maria Cancian [In Journal of Income Distribution, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1998, pp. 45-61] Robert F. Schoeni 00-03 RP-881 Does Head Start Help Hispanic Children? Janet Currie [In Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2, 1999, pp. 235-262] Duncan Thomas 00-02 RP-804 Job Continuity Among New Mothers Jacob Alex Klerman [In Demography, Vol. 36, No. 2, May 1999, pp. 145-155] Arleen Leibowitz 00-01 RP 887 The Role of Education in Explaining and Forecasting Trends in Functional Limitations Among Older Americans Vicki A. Freedman [In Demography, Vol. 36, No. 4, November 1999, pp. 461-473] Linda G. Martin

To order a reprint, free of charge, please call RAND Distribution Services at 310.451.7002. For reprints prior to 1999, please see our web page. http://www.rand.org/labor/