THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as CHILD POLICY a public service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY organization providing objective analysis and POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY effective solutions that address the challenges facing SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY the public and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND Support RAND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Labor and Population View document details This product is part of the RAND Corporation reprint series. RAND reprints reproduce previously published journal articles and book chapters with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints have been formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher’s editorial policy. Conflict&Security Demographics and Security in Maritime Southeast Asia Brian Nichiporuk, Clifford Grammich Angel Rabasa, and Julie DaVanzo With a population of about 325 million, Maritime Southeast Brian Nichiporuk is a political scientist at the Asia—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore—is RAND Corporation. an area of significant economic and security interests for the Clifford Grammich United States. These interests are four fold. First, the United is a member of the States seeks to maintain open sea lanes through the region, RAND Research Com- especially through the Straits of Malacca, through which much munication Group. Persian Gulf oil is shipped to East Asia. Second, the moderate Angel Rabasa is a senior policy analyst at Islam practiced in the region can help offset radical Islamist the RAND Corpora- movements elsewhere. Third, Washington seeks to prevent ter- tion. rorist infrastructure from developing in the dense jungles of Julie DaVanzo the region. And fourth, the United States needs to build directs the Population Matters program at the strong strategic relationships in the region to assure access for RAND Corporation. American air and naval forces. This article analyzes how demographic factors are affecting the security environment of Southeast Asia and examines the resulting security implica- tions for the United States. The current annual population growth rate of the region (1.38 percent) exceeds that for the rest of the world (1.17 per- cent).1 The region is also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, nearly 200 million, with 177 million in Indonesia alone and a Muslim majority in Malaysia as well. Winter/Spring 2006 [83] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA Muslims are a minority in the Philip- or other powers). Demographic variables pines and Singapore; however, the Mus- such as population age structure, partic- lim population is also growing faster than ularly the number of persons of military the total populations in Indonesia, the age, can affect the nature of power in a Philippines, and Malaysia.2 state. Demographic changes such as The prominence of the Muslim pop- migration affect the sources of conflict by ulation in the region makes the relation- increasing tensions between states or ship between Islam and the state an altering the domestic policies of a given important part of regional politics. This state so that it becomes a security prob- relationship has recently been marred by lem for its neighbors. violence such as the terrorist bombings in Bali and Jakarta in recent years as well Urbanization: Shifting the as the growth of radical Islamist organiza- Locus of Politics and Conflict. tions and parties, the emergence of Like the rest of the world, Maritime extremist and terrorist groups, and sepa- Southeast Asia is becoming more urban. ratist movements in Mindanao and Aceh In 1980 just over one in four persons in in Indonesia. Such insurgency represents the region lived in urban areas; in 2000 the greatest threat to security in a region nearly half did.3 Jakarta and Manila are where there is currently little risk of con- among the largest metropolitan areas in flict between states. the world. Increasing urban populations While the religious characteristics are mean the cities of the region will become perhaps the most distinctive demographic even more important economic, politi- features of the region, other demograph- cal, and social centers. ic characteristics merit consideration as As a result of urbanization, there has well. Demographic trends such as urban- been a political shift in the region from ization, migration, and population traditional rural leadership to new types growth affect security issues confronting of urban leadership. In Malaysia, for the region. These trends also shape avail- example, Malay political organizations able responses to security issues. have been based in rural areas where Urbanization and population disper- Malays were more numerous, and ethnic sion can affect the nature and conduct of Chinese have been more prevalent in conflict by influencing its environment urban politics, reflecting traditional dif- As rural Malays have moved to urban areas and traditional family and village bonds have weakened, Islam has grown as a source of political identity. (e.g., creating new areas of conflict) or ferences in the distribution of the popu- instruments (e.g., diasporas seeking to lation. As rural Malays have moved to advance the interests of their home states urban areas and traditional family and [84] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs NICHIPORUK, GRAMMICH, RABASA, & DAVANZO Conflict&Security village bonds have weakened, Islam has migratory flows. Improvements in com- grown as a source of political identity. munications and information technology Urban areas with ease of communica- allow leaders of these communities tions and concentrations of peoples with greater means to call attention to issues of shared political experiences can facilitate interest in their home countries or to revolutionary movements. The People help their home countries or territories Power movements of 1986 and 2001 in achieve political or military objectives. the Philippines as well as the Indonesian Both Indonesia and the Philippines anti-government demonstrations of have a substantial number of nationals 1998 were all urban-based movements. overseas and relatively high net emigra- Urban areas, particularly those with uni- tion in recent years.8 In addition, there versities, can be fertile grounds for new are more than one million Filipinos who political movements in proselytizing, work abroad—nearly all as contract work- recruiting, and developing new leader- ers—and return to the Philippines; more ship. In Indonesia the most dynamic than one in four of whom work in Saudi Islamist political forces have been Arabia.9 Remittances from overseas increasingly based in urban and universi- workers—estimated in recent years to be ty communities.4 The Islamic Youth 0.6 percent of the Filipino GDP and 0.2 Movement of Malaysia (Angkatan Belia percent of the Indonesian GDP—consti- Islam Malaysia), a university-based orga- tute small but noticeable portions of the nization, provided much of the leader- Filipino and Indonesian economies.10 Of ship and ideology for the Pan-Malay particular interest for analysis of demo- Islamic Party.5 The small but dynamic graphics and security, especially that rel- Prosperous Justice Party in Indonesia, evant to U.S. interest in promoting led by graduates of Indonesian and West- moderate social and political movements ern universities, originated in Islamic in the Muslim world, is how diasporas study circles at Indonesian universities.6 may help transmit Islamic militancy to Operationally, the infrastructure of Southeast Asia. For example, Filipino urban areas can provide cover and greater workers returning from the Persian Gulf ease of communication for armed clan- could, conceivably, bring Wahhabist destine militants. Because cities have beliefs and doctrines with them. substantive and symbolically important Beyond these returning workers, there targets and because news media are more are also longstanding Arab communities concentrated and less likely to be restrict- in the region, but the variety of influences ed by government there, operations in on the Muslim community have led some urban settings can have a greater impact to label it the least “Arabized” of leading than those in rural areas. Muslim communities.11 Individuals of Arab origin are, for the most part, well Ethnic Diasporas: Transmitting integrated into local societies. For exam- Conflict? Diasporas to and from a ple, the Hadrami (Yemeni) diaspora, region can also affect the nature of con- numbering about five million in the flict. In recent decades, diasporas have region, includes a community whose increased in size, visibility, and influ- wealth is among the greatest in the region, ence.7 More rapid and widespread long- as well as persons who have served as for- range transportation has permitted larger eign ministers in Indonesia and Malaysia. Winter/Spring 2006 [85] DEMOGRAPHICS AND SECURITY IN MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA Still, the local Arab diaspora, particu- long distances between such islands and larly its newer elements, may serve as major military concentrations would either a liaison or camouflage for Middle mean any government response to such Eastern terrorists. Islamic radicals of