Visions of the Information Industry - Dreams or Nightmares?

Tina Cary, PhD ASPRS Past President

"The new source of cessing yields informa- funded, and built. The just 20 ground stations? power is not money in tion; the accumulation number of Earth observa- The trend toward per- the hands of a few but and processing of infor- tion satellites being sonal computers for information in the hands mation leads to knowl- planned for launch in ground station use is in of many," John Naisbitt edge. And, we hope, the the next five to seven its infancy. So one pos- (Megatrends, 1984). In accumulation of knowl- years is more than five sibility is that we each 1985, Rutherford Rogers edge leads to the appli- dozen. Some of the sat- have our own antenna said in the New York cation of knowledge for ellites have several pay- and ground receiving Times "We're drowning the benefit of all. We loads, others focus spe- station. The increase in in information and starv- can envision this as a cifically on oceans or number of countries and ing for knowledge." pyramid, with Lots of agriculture. And, while companies launching Where are we today? data forming the base, some of the satellites are Earth observation satel- Where might we be in then information, mov- research oriented, a lites raises the possibil- the first half of the 21st ing up to a smaller number of them are be- ity that open architec- century? amount of knowledge, ing developed for opera- ture may be coming to This leads to other, with benefits at the pin- tional applications. the satellite control ten- even more interesting nacle. I see this progres- When data are plenti- ter market. questions: "What busi- sion as another way of ful, they will move Or perhaps in the 21st ness opportunities does stating the ASPRS Mis- through the economy century it will not be that suggest?" and sion, which is "to ad- like a commodity. Just data that are transmitted "Where do we WANT to vance knowledge and as people consume at all. be ten or 20 years from improve understanding wheat by buying bread At present, computer now?" and "What can I of mapping sciences to or flour, but seldom by processing of remote contribute?" And, be- promote the responsible buying raw wheat, so too sensing data uses the ra- cause of my role in application of photo- will people consume diometric domain, and ASPRS, I am also inter- grammetry, remote sens- data by buying informa- to some extent the spec- ested in the question ing, geographic informa- tion, not raw data. tral and temporal do- "What will people want tion systems and from their professional supporting technolo- associations?" gies." After reviewing The number of Earfh observation I selected the follow- some technology trends, ing developments be- I will present some ideas satellites being planned for cause I think they have a about what professional launch in the next five to seven bearing on the informa- societies such as ASPRS tion industry, and par- can do to help our pro- years is more th~nfive dozen. ticularly on the industry fession advance toward that we are building the peak of the pyramid. around spatial informa- What about the 21st mains, with less use of tion. Set your imagina- Remote Sensing century? Will there be the spatial domain. We tion to envision all sorts constellations of satel- can expect that advances of possibilities for the Trends lites, so that every kind in expert systems, neural 21st century; let your From the point of of data -panchromatic, nets, and fuzzy logic mind roam uncoi- view of remote sensing, multispec~ral(and will enable us to have strained. we are still in very early hyperspectral), thermal, computers extracting To look at where we stages; in fact, we do not radar - can be collected much more information are today and where we have nearly enough data. every day over any place from the data. The pros- might be in the 21st cen- That will soon be chang- on Earth? And will the pect of repeat observa- tury consider this model ing, because more and data be transmitted to tions at anv desired tem- - take data as a basic el- more satellites are being hundreds or thousands poral frequency means ement; data plus pro- planned, licensed, of antennas, instead of Continued on page 769

July 1997 PE&RS that we will be able to means of artificial intel- columns in GIS World telephone number con- analyze spatial patterns ligence generate knowl- and Geo-Info Systems on figured so that the com- over time, which will edge to be transmitted to new products report sev- puter will route the call help us better under- Earth instead of data or eral new data products to a series of.numbers, stand processes, so that even information. every month. What will e.g., office, then car, remote sensing data will happen in the 21st cen- then home. You can lead not just to informa- Trends in GIs tury? I can easily imag- change the order of the routing according to the tion but also to knowl- From a GIS perspec- ine that all maps are time of day, and can en- edge. tive, we are further along digital, and paper maps ter new numbers re- We can also envision the continuum from data are rarely used. With 3- motely when you travel. computers on future sat- to information, knowl- D visualization, I expect The Internet had more ellites processing data edge, and benefits, be- the kinds of information than 50 million users in into information; per- cause a GIS helps us cre- traditionally conveyed 1996. In the last year or haps in the 21st century ate information from by maps will be much two, as the Internet has on-board computers will data. While getting data easier to understand. moved from being a gov- not only process data into a GIs has been a Here are some other ernment-financed tool into information, but bottleneck, the world is interesting develop- for academics, to a compare new data to old on its way to becoming ments: AT&T has intro- source of entertainment and new information to more and more data- duced "500" area codes, old information, and by rich. For example, the a "follow-me anywhere" Continued on page 771

July 1997 PE&RS 769 and information, the use of the ing and spread-sheets are today. Internet is growing faster than the ERDAS is introducing a package number of subscribers: traffic that is totally compatible with through one of the main connec- Microsoft Office so that you can SEAMLESS, tion points has been doubling ev- take a map from the ERDAS appli- ery six months, while the number cation into a Word document, FULL COLOR, of subscribers is doubling only ev- work with tabular information in GEO-REFERENCED ery year. Excel, and return to your ERDAS Because it has become the application. MAPS ON CD "World Wide Wait," more and In an airline catalog last year, more users are bypassing the pub- Timex and Microsoft joined to of- 1 USGS maps, the de-facto fer a Databank Watch which will USA map standard, are lic Internet. Companies are setting now available on CD-ROM. do wireless transfers of phone up private "intranets" within Think of the convenience 06 single locations and "extranets" numbers, appointments, and re- importing RASTER TIF with branches and partners. A minders from a PC to a wrist- images directly into your 1 group of American research uni- watch. Nokia now sells a device I software applications. versities plan to build "Internet that is a combination personal 11", dedicated to academic traffic digital assistant and mobile tele- NEW RELEASE 2.0 of and free of commercial users, phone. The handset opens to pro- Sure!MAPS RASTER much as the Internet itself was just vide computer access to the Web a few years ago. and e-mail. And, if you've flown includes integrated may In California, a company named recently, you know that now you projection software. Savi has used low-cost commer- can not only make, but also re- cia1 cellular-telephone technology ceive, telephone calls at your seat. USGS 1:250K, 1:100K, 1:24K to develop a family of radio tags All these products and services Over 200 maps on each CD that comprise an ultra-low-power are available today. FREE WITH EVERY CD transceiver, a memory chip and a Surely in the 21st century geo- World & U.S. Maps five-year battery. In combination graphic understanding will be Viewing, reprojection & with global positioning satellites, more sophisticated than it is now. extraction software containers with these tags can Young adults who grew up playing know where they are. Using com- SimTown and then SimCity will munication satellites in low orbits, feel at home using virtual reality the tags can tell people the posi- to explore the interconnections of "SureMAPS RASTER is a super1 tion of the containers. This has systems and the impacts of deci- base map fbr our 3 meter $tree great value to trucking companies, sions. centerline data sets. -Michael I, which estimate that normally 20- In the United States, nearly 40 KnopC PLl.S, Knopf Engineering, I 30 percent of containers are mis- percent of homes already have a I placed at any one time. UPS is PC. Outside the United States, the Exclusive provider !Map- testing these tags in Houston and PC market is growing more than 1-of USGS raster Data Partner maps and scanning 20 ESRI"' San Francisco. It sounds concep- percent per year, with the Euro- services to MapInfo. ,,,, tually like the Lo-jack, a device pean home-PC market growth esti- I Sole authorized ESRI mated at 35 percent in 1996. PC that can be installed in a car and ArcData publisher sales outside the U.S. surpassed activated to transmit the car's lo- of USGS raster maps. %zp cation to the police, if the car is the U.S. market for the first time I stolen. With these technologies al- in 1996. 800 828 3808 ready available, what might be What about multimedia, com- FAX 619 292 9439 possible in ten or 20 years? bining the computer, telephone, [email protected] In other developments: a sub- and television? Ed McCracken, www.horizons.com/suremaps set of MapInfo software is now head of Silicon Graphics, believes Or contact an authorized reseller. available within Microsoft Office 85 percent of multimedia users Reseller & strateaic wrtnershi~ and Excel for Windows 95: Strate- will interact with the information gic Mapping Inc. has licensed superhighway via television. An- Core1 Corp to use SMI's technol- drew Grove, head of Intel, on the ogy in Corel's CD Office and other hand, envisions that PCs Also available- CorelDRAW; SimCity has been so will play the leading role. CUSTOM MAP N popular that Maxis developed These visionaries may be unfa- e(0 SimTown for children. Now, chil- miliar with the findings of a sur- % e dren are gaining empirical under- vey by Apple, which found that 85 -4(D standing of spatial modeling, and percent of those responding were HORIZONS TCOHNOWOY. INC. soon mapping tools will be as terrified of computer technology. readily available as word process- Continued on page 772

July 1997 PE&RS (Did you see the Wall Digital agents are be- Or, as Joe Berry put it in understand both the spa- Street Journal article ing developed to do our his (March 1995) column tial and the psychologi- about the new PC user shopping, sort our e- in GZS World, perhaps cal aspects of economic who tried to use the mail, and accept or de- we have the cart - the behavior. mouse as a foot-pedal? cline our appointments. tools to characterize spa- What happens when And I've also heard that I can imagine that in the tial relationships - in we link GISs to virtual someone thought the CD- early years of the 21st front of the horse - the reality tools? When we drive was a cup-holder!) century, we can turn scientific understanding get the horse of scientific My belief is that, to most loose computer agents, of the relationships we understanding in front of consumers, the complex- not only to shop for us wish to model. the cart of spatial analy- ity of the technology is but also to request satel- Those of you who sis, the two parts of vir- not yet sufficiently hid- lite acquisitions, as- know me know I'm an tual reality - simulation den. The complexity of semble spatial data from optimist, so, of course, I and interaction - will an automobile or a fax various sources, analyze expect this to improve! improve our understand- machine or an ATM ma- it, and call us on our At least with these high- ing of the relationships chine, in contrast, is hid- 500-numbers to ring on powered tools, we have between project plans den well enough. There our wristwatches to pro- the capability to develop and real-world conse- is clearly a business op- vide us the information empirical models. By quences. Imagine that portunity in developing we require. studying these models, planners can enter a vir- a sirllple user interface. The progression from we can generate hypoth- tual reality, implement ~ohnstonCounty, information to knowl- eses and then predictive various plans, and com- North Carolina offers edge is still in early models. We can com- pare the results. Or public access to its GIs stages. If we think of the pare model outputs to imagine funding agen- via cable TV. In New- "4 Ms" - mapping, mea- observed and measured cies touring virtual reali- port Beach, California, suring, monitoring, and distributions, develop ties shaped by different library patrons can eas- modelling - the first new hypotheses, and-by project plans, before ily maneuver through two are primarily associ- this process improve our they allocate the imple- the city GIs, without re- ated with processing understanding. mentation funds! alizing they are retriev- data into information. On another front, I ing data from the mu- The third "M", monitor- draw hope from the re- Computer Technology nicipal building across ing, involves comparing port in Newsweek (10 Would ubiquitous town. In Glasgow, Ken- and processing informa- April 1995) on "behav- computers make the tucky, the municipally- tion, and so moves in the ioral economics. " Some world a better place, or owned Electric Plant direction of knowledge. economists now incorpo- not? One example of the Board has been deliver- It is the fourth "M", rate such elements as the power of computers to ing high-speed Internet modelling, which pre- herd instinct, irrational make the world a better service since 1990 - on sents the real opportu- fears, and poor self-con- place can be found in a network originally nity to develop knowl- trol into their economic today's automobiles. built for electric-facili- edge from information. models. Traditional eco- Oldsmobile introduced a ties management. And Modelling in GISs to- nomic models based on Guidestar option that in- these examples pale in day is in elementary "rational economic man" cludes GPS and a map comparison to ~atar's stages. One of the chal- cannot exulain real- database; you enter your GIs, with 16 participat- lenges is that some of world phenomena. By destination and it sig- ing Ministries and pub- the factors influencing considering egotism, nals as you approach licly available kiosks. processes are difficult to stubbornness and other turns and exit- and en- What all these cases capture in quantitative such traits, economists trance-ramps you need have in common is that spatial data; another can imurove consider- to take. Some rental cars information technology challenge is that we do ably tLe relationship be- are now provided with is helping governments not yet know enough tween economic theorv this option. deliver services to citi- about cause and effect and actual human behav- The $2.000-worth of zens more effectively relationships in all sorts iors. In the 21st century electronics in the aver- than ever before. of interesting processes. we will probably better age car today increases the safety of everyone on the roads. Anti-lock In Newport Beach, California, library patrons con braking systems can pump the brakes 20 easily maneuver through- the city GIs, without times per second, more realizing they are retrieving data from the than twice as much as a professional race car municipal building across town. driver, let alone more or- dinary folk. And by us-

July 1997 PE&RS ing the same monitors during ac- GPS or GIs, without ever using celeration, the result is electronic the words multispectral, kine- traction control, now available on matic or Boolean! Mercedes-Benz cars. All Grey- In the mass market, customers hound buses are equipped withra- deal in one way or another with dar which signals if the bus is too three variables: quality or features close to the vehicle in front. So of the product, price, and time to the vision for the 21st century? delivery. Or to put it another way, We will be able to safely put our we all recognize the reality behind cars on autopilot! And if your car the sign at the auto mechanic's has a Remote Emergency Satellite shop: "We do good, cheap, and Cellular Unit (RESCU), available fast work. Pick any two." In the today, and you are in an accident first scenario, the prospective cus- that deploys the airbag, the car's tomer needs a map of the Guthrie computer uses GPS to determine quadrangle with 1-meter contours location, then automatically calls and a specified map accuracy. an emergency service number by Getting the map next week is cell phone and reports the loca- worth paying a higher price. tion of the accident. In the second scenario, the pro- Another example of the poten- spective customer needs a map of tial of computers to make the the Clayton Forest, minimum world a better place comes from mapping unit two acres, at least the John Deere Precision Farming 80 percent accurate, and he has Group, which provides users ac- limited funds to spend, when cess to a differential GPS correc- could the map be ready? tion signal and an array of crop- In the third scenario, this pro- mapping and monitoring gadgetry spective customer specifies both a -- in its "Greenstar" product. This deadline and an amount of money SPECIAL OFFER! allows farmers to map yield varia- and inquires how accurate a map Entire United States at 1:250 K. tion while harvesting, and then of the land use of Henry County 5 CD Set. Unlimited users. optimize seed and fertilizer inputs he can get. NOW ONLY $1495 for that field the following spring. The Luddites of the 19th cen- Such a capability will improve tury, who took hammers and axes Contact Bernice and her yield, reduce expense, and also re- to machines in an attempt to pre- expert team of USGS Raster duce the environmental impact of vent mechanization of jobs, have data consultants today.. . excess fertilizer. I their descendents in the 20th cen- a An example I recently learned tury. For example, my local book- about is a product called Strider, store has such titles as Silicon which puts a computer with voice Snake Oil (by Clifford Stoll), and synthesizer into abackpack. A The Future Does Not Compute (by blind person types a destination Stephen Talbott). The into the computer, shoulders the technophobia suggested earlier by backpack, and the system provides the results of the Apple survey, directions to the destination. This that 85 percent of the respondents product, being tested now, will be are fearful of com~uters,coincides on the market soon. The initial with predictions that information price is around $1500 on top of technology will destroy millions the cost of the computer. The of jobs. (See for example Jeremy FAX 619 292 9439 same capability could also be used Rifkin's book The End of Work.) www.horizons.com/suremaps by tourists once the price comes Historically, technological change Or contact an authorized reseller. Reseller & strategic partnership down. has both destroyed and created qquiries inv~ted. jobs, and the growth in jobs has Combined Trends outpaced the loss. Is the change in information technology so dif- For remote sensing and GLS to Also available- move into the mass market as tele- ferent from past technological changes in its rate or kind that we 'N CUSTOM MAP communications and GPS have. SCANNING! we need to remember three things: should expect destruction to ex- ceed creation of jobs? simplify, simplify, simplify. Imag- lid ine a customer ordering spatial in- First, note that the United HORIZONS TECHNOLOOY. INC.~ formation without ever knowing States has invested much more r - --~--II my and product nam, the meaning of remote sensing or Continued on page 775 ^L +La.. *nrmrt..,nh

July 1997 PE&RS heavily in computing ogy allows jobs to move "theres" and the "there- at the relationships be- and related technology more freely, so that the nots", meaning some of tween our efforts, our re- over the last decade than programmer or data en- us will be able to do our sults, and the world at has Europe, yet Europe try person can live any- work anywhere, and oth- large. As the environ- has about twice the un- where. ers will have to be ment in which we work employment the U.S. "there" to do such things continues to change,- has. If new technology Benefits of as physical labor, face- seemingly more rapidly reduces the labor re- Membership to-face service, or factory all the time, we will work. It is an interesting need to identify ways to quired for a volume of This leads back to a output, then either the paradox that technolo- continually check our theme raised earlier: gies which focus explic- strategic plan against price of the product What will people expect falls, or wages rise, or itly on spatial location changing circumstances, from their professional may allow us to be and refine it as we go profits (and therefore associations in the 21st money for investment) "there-nots"! along. As Charles Dar- century? And what can Workshops and semi- win pointed out, "It is increase, or some combi- we do so that people nation of these three. In nars help us as members not the strongest of the continue to get value to update our skills and species that survive, nor other words, there is an from belonging to the increase in consumer broaden our understand- the most intelligent, but American Society for ing of the field. The Na- the one most responsive purchasing power. Photogrammetry and Re- Whether that translates tional Research Council to change." mote Sensing? What Standards are another into increased demand says that it used to take will professional societ- area presenting ASPRS for that product, or for seven to 14 years for half ies offer their members? of a worker's skills to be- and other professional other products, the We need to sustain come obsolete. Today it societies an opportunity economy as a whole sees and enhance our efforts takes only three to five and a challenge. The growth. The 1994 OECD - to be the authoritative years for 50 percent of importance of standards Jobs Study found that source of information for our skills to become out- will increase dramati- the U.S. and Japan, the photogrammetry and re- dated. With the pace of cally as the use of geo- countries most success- mote sensing, and their change in the techno- graphic information sys- ful in creating jobs, are associated technologies. logical aspects of our tems continues its also the countries lead- A significant challenge profession, and the trend explosive growth. And ing the shift in kinds of we must consider is how of reduced employer as mapping tools move jobs, toward a high-tech, electronic publishing fits support of employee ca- into the mass market, we knowledge-based into our publications reer development, pro- will face increasing chal- economy. program. Ever since fessional societies have lenges in maintaining For people who are USA Today demon- an opportunity to ex- standards of scientific not Luddites, another strated that distribution pand their role in pro- rigor. question arises: will could happen before viding education and In closing, I hope that changes in information printing, publications training as a service to this survey of develop- technology necessarily have become increas- members. Technological ments and likely trends widen the gap in wages ingly customized. For developments in tele- has stimulated your between the haves and example, Newsweek no communications and imagination, and that have-nots? Given that longer has a U.S. edi- computers will continu- youare excited about the some computer programs tion, it now has regional ally modify the options possibilities of the 21st available today make editions, each with sev- and redefine the compe- century. If you want to medical diagnoses iden- eral pages of ads for tition in supplying tuto- shape the role of a pro- tical to those of qualified companies within that rials and workshops to fessional society in the physicians, we may find region. members. mapping sciences, I in- that computers can Conventions and Another important vite you to become more lower wages for skilled workshops are other area for effort within active in ASPRS. work, not only for un- ways we communicate professional societies is skilled work. If comput- the substance of our pro- strategic planning: I see This talk was initially pre- ers take on such work as fession. And think of strategic planning as an sented at GISfGPS Confer- the possibilities created ence '97, Doha, Qatar, accounting and law, the on-going process in March 2-4, 1997. result might be a lessen- by the technologies that ASPRS which helps us ing in the gap in wages! enable us to have elec- communicate more Tina Cary is with Space Im- tronic meetings. One aging EOSAT, 4300 Forbes Another aspect of this is clearly with each other Boulevard, Lanham, Mary- that information technol- scenario of the future is and which helps us look that we will become the land 20706 USA