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Semiconductors 1Q21 CPU Share EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Semiconductors 1Q21 CPU Share: AMD Gains 300bps in Servers + Links to Related Research Notebook ARMageddon 5-May-21: Cloud Instance Analysis - May 7, 2021 Mar'21: AMD Regaining / Datacenter Reaccelerating Key Takeaway 30-Apr-21: Semis on Fire: Q121 Mid- According to Mercury, in 1Q21, AMD gained 300bps and 150bps of CPU revenue share Earnings Season Takes QQ in dual servers and notebooks, respectively. On a YY basis, AMD gained 685bps of server revenue share. We expect AMD's server share gains exceed 150bps/qtr as it ramps 28-Apr-21: AMD Q121: Share Gains its 7nm Milan CPUs through 2021 and its 5nm Genoa CPUs in 2022. Separately, ARM Accelerate now accounts for 6% of notebooks. Reiterate Buy on AMD, and ARM plays MRVL and 16-Apr-21: Semis on Fire: Chipaggedon + NVDA. an NVDA A-Day Analogy Our Key Takes from the 1Q21 Share Analysis: 2-Feb-21: AMD 4Q20 Share Analysis: 1) AMD Server Share Gains Accelerated to 300bps in 1Q21, from an average of ~100bps/ Server Share Gains Continue qtr over the past four quarters to 11% on a revenue basis. We expect AMD share gains 26-Jan-21: Expect Continued Share Gains - to exceed 150bps a quarter for the next 4-to-8 qtrs. Reiterate Buy 2) Notebook ARMageddon: ARM is now 7% of total NB unit share, split 55/45 between 27-Aug-20: AMD+XLNX: A Match for the Apple MacBooks and Chromebooks. Edge 3) ARM in Servers: Mercury Research shows ARM servers at 0.6% share, but concedes INTC: A Butterfly Flaps Its Wings in 2005... it may be undercounting ARM servers. Our analysis suggests that ARM CPUs are now 19% of available instances at AWS. The 4th Tectonic Shift in Computing: To a Parallel Processing / IoT Model 4) Desktops: AMD lost 120 bps QQ on unit share but was flat QQ on rev share, suggesting it continues to move upmarket. In 1Q21, ARM makes up 0.6% share in desktops. Our Top Picks: We believe investors are underestimating the inflection of the ARM ecosystem in the computing market. Our top ARM plays are MRVL, NVDA, and AMD. For AMD, our 4- to 5-year EPS power is $7.40 assuming a 50% share and alternatively a 2- to 3-year EPS power of $4.90 assuming a 30% market share. Mark Lipacis * Chart 1 - Notebook CPU Market Share Equity Analyst 100% (415) 229-1438 ARM [email protected] 95% Vedvati Shrotre * AMD Equity Associate 90% (415) 229-1574 [email protected] 85% Natalia Winkler, CFA * Equity Associate 80% (415) 229-1511 Notebook CPU Unit CPU Unit Share Notebook [email protected] 75% Intel Brian Chen * 70% Equity Associate (415) 229-1478 1Q18 3Q19 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 3Q18 1Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 . 1Q15 [email protected] Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research ^Prior trading day closing price unless otherwise noted. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 8 to 15 of this report. * Jefferies LLC / Jefferies Research Services, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Server CPU Market Chart 2 - AMD x86 Server CPU Unit Share (%) Chart 3 - AMD x86 Server CPU Rev Share (%) 30% 35% 25% 30% 25% 20% Total Server AMD's total server unit share QQ: +155bps AMD's server rev share 20% QQ: +210bps YY: +338bpsAMD's total server 14% 15% AMD's dual socket server unit share YY: +685bps QQ: +298bps 15% AMD's dual socket server rev share QQ: +234bps YY: +627bps Total Server 11% 10% YY: +730bps 10% Dual AMD AMD Server CPU Unit Share (%) 5% Processor AMD Server CPU Rev Share (%) 8% 5% Server Dual Socket 11% Server 0% 0% 4Q06 4Q09 3Q13 3Q16 2Q20 1Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 2Q17 1Q18 4Q18 3Q19 1Q21 3Q07 1Q12 3Q16 1Q21 1Q06 4Q06 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 2Q17 1Q18 4Q18 3Q19 2Q20 . 2Q05 Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research According to Mercury, AMD's total server unit market share increased to 8% in 4Q20 (+155bps QQ; +338bps YY) and its dual socket unit market share increased to 14% (+298bps QQ; +627bps YY). We expect AMD share gains, particularly in the server market, to accelerate from 50-100 bps/qtr they have seen over the past two years, to 100-300 bps per quarter going forward, at a higher rate as Milan processors ramp and the transistor gap between TSMC/AMD and INTC widens. Chart 4 - AWS Cloud Processor-Only Instance Share Chart 5 - Processor Instance Share by CSP as of Mar-21 100% 1% 2% 100% 6% 3% 6% 11% 12% 14% Graviton 90% 18% 19% 90% 13% 19% 18% 18% 80% 19% 18% AMD 80% 16% 70% 12% 16% 70% 60% Intel 60% Unspecified 50% 88% 50% 100% Graviton 40% 80% 75% AMD 40% 85% 85% 69% 69% 64% 76% 30% Intel 30% 64% 20% 20% 10% 0% 10% 0% Jun-19 Jun-20 Azure AWS Aliyun GCP Sep-20 Dec-19 Dec-20 . Mar-21 . Source: Liftr Insights, Jefferies. More current and detailed data available by Source: Liftr Insights, Jefferies. More current and detailed data available by Liftr Insights. Liftr Insights. Within AWS, Graviton instances have increased to 19% of total CPU instances available as of Mar-21, up from 1% in the Jun-19Q and 18% in Feb-21. Graviton's share gains at AWS have come at the expense of INTC, which has seen its CPU instance availability decline to 64% of total in Mar-21 from 88% in Jun-19. May 7, 2021 2 Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 15 of this report. EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Chart 6 - ARM Server CPU Rev Share (%) ARM Server Units are estimated to be 57 thousand or 0.6% of total server unit share. 1.0% Given the captive nature of a large portion 0.9% ARM's Server unit share of this segment, Mercury does not attribute QQ: -2bps a high level of accuracy to its ARM server 0.8% YY: +8bps segment data. 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% ARM ARM Server CPU Unit Share (%) 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2Q19 4Q19 3Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 . 1Q19 Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Chart 7 - MRVL CEO Commentary on Hyperscale Customer Discussions and ARM MRVL indicated that it was in advanced Developments discussions with hyperscale companies to co-design ARM-based processors. This makes it a top ARM-CPU play for us. MRVL's ARM-IP comes from its acquisition of Cavium, which had developed ThunderX2, a 64-bit ARM server CPU. Source: Jefferies, company data, Factset May 7, 2021 3 Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 15 of this report. EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Notebook CPU Market Chart 8 - Notebook CPU Unit Share Chart 9 - Overall Notebook Share as of 1Q21 100% ARM ARM, 95% AMD 6.6% AMD, 16.5% 90% 85% 80% Notebook CPU Unit CPU Unit Share Notebook Intel Intel, 76.9% 75% 70% 3Q11 4Q13 1Q16 2Q18 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 2Q12 1Q13 3Q14 2Q15 4Q16 3Q17 1Q19 4Q19 3Q20 . 2Q21E . Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research ARM notebook shipments began being tracked in 1Q19. As of 1Q21, ARM makes up 6.6% share of overall. We expect the share to further increase driven by Apple's transition to M1 processors. Chart 10 - AMD Notebook x86 CPU Unit Share (%) Chart 11 - AMD Notebook x86 CPU Rev Share (%) 14% 25% AMD's NB unit share AMD's NB rev share QQ: -102bps QQ: +153bps YY: +110bps 12% YY: +480bps 20% 13% 10% 15% 8% 18% 6% 10% 4% 5% AMD AMD Notebook Share (%)CPU Rev 2% AMD AMD Notebook CPU Unit Share (%) 0% 0% 4Q06 2Q08 4Q09 1Q21 2Q05 1Q06 3Q07 1Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 3Q16 2Q17 1Q18 4Q18 3Q19 2Q20 1Q10 1Q12 1Q21 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 . 1Q05 . Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research In 1Q21, AMD Notebook CPU unit share declined to 18% (-102bps QQ and +110bps YY), but revenue share increased to 13% (+153bps QQ and +480bps YY), suggesting AMD is gaining share in the higher end. We find this to be consistent with INTC's earnings call where mgmt mentioned NB ASPs decreasing 23% but units increasing through mix shift toward the lower ASP market. May 7, 2021 4 Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 15 of this report. EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Chart 12 - ARM Notebook CPU Unit Share (%) Chart 13 - ARM PC Share 7% ARM's NB unit share QQ: +232bps YY: +438bps 6% 5% 4% 3% Chromebook, 45% Apple , 55% 2% 1% ARM ARM Notebook CPU Unit Share (%) 0% 2Q19 4Q19 3Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 . 1Q19 . Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Source: Jefferies, Mercury Research Mercury estimates ARM Notebook CPU units were nearly 5.7m for the 1Q21. In 1Q21, ARM Notebook CPU unit market share increased to 7% (+232bps QQ and +438bps YY). Mercury notes that the mix is close to 45% and 55% between Chromebook and Apple's ARM products among ARM PC units with the tilt expected to lean toward Apple going forward. May 7, 2021 5 Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 15 of this report. EQUITY RESEARCH USA | Semiconductors Desktop CPU Market Chart 14 - Desktop CPU Unit Share Chart 15 - Overall Desktop Share as of 1Q21 100% ARM ARM, 0.6% 95% AMD AMD, 14.1% 90% 85% 80% Desktop CPU Unit CPU Unit Share Desktop Intel Intel, 85.3% 75% 70% 3Q11 4Q13 1Q16 2Q18 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 2Q12 1Q13 3Q14 2Q15 4Q16 3Q17 1Q19 4Q19 3Q20 .
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