2018 the YEAR of the FLU How to Survive the Worst Outbreak in Living Memory

BRAINWAVE THERAPY Sound, light and hums set to shake up Alzheimer’s treatment OUT OF A BLACK HOLE Bizarre quantum theory solves greatest paradox in physics THE DEVIL RIDES AGAIN How Australia’s last big predator is biting back WEEKLY 6January2018

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SPECIAL REPORT 2018 THE YEAR OF THE FLU How to survive the worst outbreak in living memory

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Email [email protected] ALFRED PASIEKA/SCIENCE LIBRARY PHOTO GAERTNER/SCIENCEJUAN LIBRARY PHOTO Commercial director Chris Martin Richard Holliman, Justin Viljoen, Volume 237 No 3159 News Can sound help against Alzheimer’s plaques? 6 Henry Vowden, Helen Williams

Recruitment advertising Tel +44 (0)20 8652 4444 On the cover Leaders Features Email [email protected] Recruitment sales manager Mike Black 6 Brainwave therapy 5 This year’s flu should shake us out 28 2018: The year of the flu What Key account managers Sound, light and hums set to of complacency. We need a vision you need to know about the worst Martin Cheng, Reiss Higgins, Viren Vadgama US sales manager Jeanne Shapiro shake up Alzheimer’s treatment to solve impaired sight outbreak in living memory 33 Very high fashion The iconic Marketing Head of marketing Lucy Dunwell 14 Out of a black hole spacesuit gets a long-overdue David Hunt, Chloe Thompson, Andrew Wilkinson Bizarre quantum theory solves News makeover Web development greatest paradox in physics 6 THIS WEEK Sound therapy zaps 38 The devil rides again How Director of technology Steve Shinn Alzheimer’s plaques. Marijuana Australia’s last big predator is Maria Moreno Garrido, Tuhin Sheikh, Amardeep Sian 38 The devil rides again legalised in California. China biting back How Australia’s last big predator tackles climate change 40 PEOPLE Andrew Bastawrous, New Scientist Live Tel +44 (0)20 7611 1273 is biting back the doctor who wants to teach Email [email protected] 8 NEWS & TECHNOLOGY the world to see Event director Mike Sherrard 33 Very high fashion There’s no such thing as love at first Creative director Valerie Jamieson Sales director Jacqui McCarron Spacesuits get a long-overdue sight. A survivor from a lost age. Event manager Henry Gomm makeover How our lust for chocolate changed Culture Conference producer Natalie Gorohova cocoa trees. Google’s robot voice 42 A cultural year The books UK Newsstand 28 2018: The year of the flu gets an upgrade. Too much gaming and events that will shape 2018 Tel +44 (0)20 3787 9001 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, How to survive the worst outbreak really can be bad for you. Genital 44 You’ve just crossed over… 2nd Floor, 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, in living memory crabs can’t find sex. Learning not A 1950s TV show takes to the London E14 5HU to fall over. Parallel universes solve stage – and it really works Syndication Plus Infection-fighting fat (16). Love at black hole problem. 3D-printed Tribune Content Agency Tel +44 (0)20 7588 7588 first sight (8). Wandering moons bones. Fat fights infections. Email [email protected] (16). Alpine pyramids (26). Cast-off moons roam the cosmos Regulars Subscriptions Recycling crisis (25). Replacement 26 APERTURE newscientist.com/subscribe bones (14). Books of 2018 (42) 19 IN BRIEF Mars water slurped by Alien world of the Alps Tel +44 (0)330 333 9470 Email [email protected] rocks. Cuddly crows. CRISPR slows 52 LETTERS Post New Scientist, Rockwood House, deafness. Killer cells feed fetuses Morality in a driverless car Perrymount Road, Haywards Heath, 55 OLD SCIENTIST West Sussex RH16 3DH Januaries past Analysis 56 FEEDBACK 22 Drug substitutes The NHS Predicting bitcoin’s future wants to use cheaper versions of 57 THE LAST WORD certain drugs, but some doctors Human attraction aren’t sure 24 COMMENT Don’t count on the CiCo diet. Is supersonic air travel worth reviving? 25 INSIGHT China’s ban on imported Western rubbish could backfire

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 3

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PETER MASON/PLAINPICTURE THIS WEEK

Brainwave therapy for Alzheimer’s Can flickering lights, low hums and vibrating pads zap brain plaques?

Clare Wilson presented the team’s work at the Society for Neuroscience LISTENING to low-pitched noise conference in Washington DC seems to induce high-speed in November. brainwaves that break down The findings are promising, protein plaques in the brain says David Reynolds of the charity linked with Alzheimer’s. The Alzheimer’s Research UK. But we approach has had promising can’t assume that people with results in mice and is now Alzheimer’s will respond to the being tested in people with the 40 hertz in the same way as the condition. mice, he says. Brainwaves are the result of large networks of brain cells Trying it right away firing rhythmically and in synchrony. Much about their However, because gamma wave function is unclear, but measuring therapy seems relatively safe, it these waves via electrodes on the can be tried right away, without scalp tells us that their frequency the years of animal testing that tends to reflect how awake and potential Alzheimer’s drugs alert we feel. usually undergo. Tsai’s spin-off Brainwaves are slowest during company, Cognito Therapeutics, deep sleep, and faster when we’re has already begun trialling a form awake and relaxed. The fastest of gamma wave therapy in people brainwaves are called gamma with Alzheimer’s. waves, and they cycle at around The approach they are trying 40 times a second, or 40 hertz, combines sound, light and when we are concentrating, vibration – all at 40 hertz. making decisions and using Flickering light, low sounds and our memory. vibrating pads placed on the hands People with Alzheimer’s disease are being tested together on 12 often produce fewer gamma GAERTNER/SCIENCEJUAN LIBRARY PHOTO people with mild or moderate waves, prompting researchers to Alzheimer’s disease at a nursing experiment with ways of inducing break down proteins like amyloid. standard piano. When slices of home in Boston. There is no this type of brain activity. Last But this effect was apparently brain were then viewed under placebo group, but the firm year, Li-Huei Tsai’s group at confined to the brain’s visual a microscope, there were about is planning a larger, placebo- the Massachusetts Institute of cortex, leaving the crucial half as many amyloid plaques in controlled trial. Technology showed that exposing memory region unaffected. This both the auditory cortex regions, Some people are already trying mice to a light flickering at a area, called the hippocampus, is where sound is processed, and the therapy for themselves, frequency of 40 hertz induces among the first regions of the the hippocampus, as were seen however. Since the team’s first gamma waves in the part of the in control mice, the team found. results were announced last year, brain that processes information “Mice played frequencies The effect of 40 hertz lamps that flicker at 40 hertz have from the eyes, the visual cortex. near the lowest E on a frequencies may spread more been marketed as a dementia When they tried the light piano had half as many easily to the hippocampus when treatment, and several websites treatment for 1 hour a day in mice amyloid plaques” induced by sound, because these play a 40 hertz sound on loop. genetically altered to develop areas are closer to the auditory Reynolds says, though, that Alzheimer’s-like symptoms, they brain to be affected by amyloid cortex than the visual cortex. families shouldn’t get their hopes found that this reduced deposits plaques (see picture). Alternatively, the pathways up just yet, because Alzheimer’s in of amyloid and tau proteins – key Now it looks as if sound is a linking the auditory cortex to mice is different from the human features of Alzheimer’s disease. more promising therapy. For an the hippocampus could be more disease. However, tests should The flickering light seemed to hour a day, Tsai’s team played direct, involving fewer synapses – show if it works in humans too. be boosting the activity of the mice a 40 hertz noise, which the gaps between neurons – says “Listening to a noise is an entirely brain’s immune cells, which can is similar to the lowest E on a Anthony Martorell of MIT, who doable kind of therapy,” he says. ■

6 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 For new stories every day, visit newscientist.com/news

Pot for fun in California

ON 1 January, California became Control, around 100 dispensaries ROBYN BECK/AFP/GETTY the sixth US state to make were licensed to sell cannabis for cannabis legally available for recreational use from Monday. recreational use. Because the state The bureau had worked over the is the nation’s most populous, the holiday period to try to process move could hasten marijuana’s 1400 licence applications for legalisation across the US. marijuana-related firms. California banned cannabis in Recreational marijuana has 1913, but penalties for using the already been legalised in Alaska, drug have eased since the 1970s. Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and In 1996, it was the first state to Washington. Legal sales of the legalise marijuana for medicinal drug are expected to begin in purposes. Since 2016, it has been Massachusetts later this year. legal to grow, possess and use “Athird of the US now has small amounts of the drug. legal access to marijuana for The state already has a booming non-medical use,”says Steve marijuana industry, producing Rolles of the UK drug regulation as much as seven times more think tank Transform.“California cannabis than is consumed there. may be the straw that breaks Much of this is sold illegally in the camel’s back, forcing the other states. government to review federal According to Alex Traverso of legislation which currently rules California’s Bureau of Cannabis the drug to be illegal.”

China bites bullet Such a market gives companies a ride to its chosen destination. Shaken baby financial incentive to cut emissions. CAESAR aims to send a craft on climate change Each year, permits are distributed to to comet 67P/Churyumov- verdict overturned big energy-hungry companies, stating Gerasimenko and bring back CHINA has upped the ante in its how much greenhouse gas they 100 grams of rock and ice. Dragonfly A FATHER convicted of killing his baby efforts to curb climate change. can emit. Permits can be traded: is a concept for a drone-like daughter has been freed following It is launching a nationwide carbon a company that cuts emissions can spacecraft to land on Titan. The repudiation of the expert medical market to push power companies sell to a more polluting company. idea is to check out the hazy world’s evidence of “shaken baby syndrome” to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But this only works if permits are habitability and look for precursor that was pivotal to the original verdict. China releases more than a quarter limited, forcing companies to take molecules for the evolution of life. Zavion Johnson was convicted in of global greenhouse gas emissions action. The EU system has often Dragonfly would fly around 2002. He said that his daughter had each year because of its huge issued too many. China has yet to Titan and land at dozens of spots, slipped out of his hands in the shower, population – it emits less per person reveal details of its scheme, so it is testing surface and atmospheric but because she displayed the triad than the US. Though China invests unclear if it will do better. compositions as it goes along. of symptoms associated with shaken heavily in green technologies, its baby syndrome – bleeding behind the emissions have tripled since 2000. retinas, bleeding in the brain and brain Five cities and two provinces in CometorTitanfor swelling – he was convicted of murder. China already have carbon markets, Since then, research has challenged where companies trade the right to NASA in 2025 the dogma that this triad is proof of emit greenhouse gases. But these are child abuse, and that explanations specific to certain sectors like steel. NASA has selected two finalists in its such as Johnson’s must be ruled out. The new nationwide project will focus New Frontiers programme: one is a Asked to re-evaluate their original on power generation, which emits mission to bring back bits of a comet, evidence as part of an appeal, two key 3.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and the other is a spacecraft for prosecution witnesses repudiated every year. Europe’s carbon trading landing on the surface of Saturn’s their testimony. As a result, the system covers just 2 billion tonnes. moon Titan. Sacramento County district attorney “In principle, it’s exceptionally Each team will receive $4 million conceded the conviction was wrongful, important,” says Robert Stavins at to develop its concept, and in July and freed Johnson on 8 December. Harvard University. The market may 2019, NASA will choose a single At least 14 people in the US have end up as big as “all existing carbon mission to launch in 2025. The winner had their convictions reversed in

markets combined”. will get $850 million and a rocket NASA shaken baby cases since 2011.

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 7 NEWS & TECHNOLOGY

met each other face-to-face, effect. This might help explain either at a bar, during speed why people think they are falling What love at first dating or at a food-based event in love with someone at first sight, designed to allow people to meet says Zsok. sight really is in groups of four. “What you feel is lust at first Of the 396 volunteers across sight and is largely subconscious,” all arms of the study, 32 reported says Anna Machin at the Jessica Hamzelou In it, 282 volunteers were shown experiencing love at first sight University of Oxford.“Love is pictures on the internet of six (Personal Relationships, doi.org/ an attachment that comes later. YOU may remember your eyes people of the gender they found chkg). However, none of these It is more complex and involves meeting across a crowded room attractive, and were then surveyed people matched, says Zsok. conscious reflection on a and your life changing forever. on their feelings about them. “There was no reciprocated love.” relationship.” But was it really love at first sight? Around half the volunteers were Analysing the surveys showed In reality, it is unlikely that One in three people say they in relationships. They were also that people are most likely to people ever form this kind of have fallen in love as soon as they asked about the early days of report love at first sight when connection upon meeting one laid eyes on someone. However, a those relationships. A similar they find someone physically another, says Zsok. “People like study suggests the phenomenon experiment involved showing attractive. We tend to associate this romantic idea, but you have probably doesn’t exist. 50 volunteers nine pictures. a range of positive attributes to read between the lines.” “People think of love at first Zsok and his team also studied to good-looking people, a So why do so many people feel sight as a lightning strike as soon the reactions of 64 people who phenomenon known as the halo like it has happened to them? as they see a person,”says Florian People often misremember Zsok at the University of Zurich, the early stages of what is now Switzerland. a successful relationship, says Until now, research into Machin. “It’s an unconscious the experience has mostly attempt to underpin a focused on people who are in relationship,” she says. “Telling relationships, which is likely to someone 20 years down the line distort our understanding of it. that you loved them at first sight Such people are more likely to is a lovely thing to say and a good remember the beginning of that way to maintain a relationship.” relationship in an exaggeratedly But Sandra Langeslag at the positive light. University of Missouri-St Louis So Zsok and his colleagues disagrees. The fact that some conducted a series of experiments people said they felt love at first in which volunteers saw new sight means it does exist, as long people for the first time. Each as you use a broad definition of person filled in a survey and what love is, she says. “A lot of was asked how they felt about people refer to the deep love you the people they saw or met. experience in a relationship, but I The first experiment was would call infatuation and sexual designed to mimic online dating. GETTY IMAGES desire a type of love.” ■

animals, plants or something else. They are a few centimetres long and are similar, but fossilised Mystery fossil Ediacarans first appear in the fossil look a bit like segmented worms. worms are usually squashed flat, may be a beast record about 600 million years ago. Retallack has revisited the sites says Retallack. They are thought to have vanished and discovered four more. Thin slices We don’t know what Protonympha out of time 60 million years later, after animals show that Protonympha fossils had an was, but it is possible it was an burst onto the scene in the Cambrian organic, iron-rich body wall – like some Ediacaran, says Retallack. AN ODD 380-million-year-old fossil period. They may all have been eaten. Ediacarans (Lethaia, doi.org/chpr). “An Ediacaran survivor in [such that looks like a worm might be However, Gregory Retallack at the What’s more, the Protonympha young rocks] would indeed be the last known survivor of an University of Oregon thinks some fossils are between 3 and 4 millimetres very unexpected, and would be early form of life. But some Ediacarans clung on for a long time in thick, and are preserved as chambers met with scepticism,” says Duncan palaeontologists are sceptical. the age of animals. He says a mystery filled with sediment. Many Ediacarans McIlroy at the Memorial University The Ediacarans were some of the fossil called Protonympha might be of Newfoundland in Canada. earliest multicellular life forms. They one – despite living 160 million years “Ediacarans were weird, “The similarities are intriguing, but were weird, bag-like organisms, a few after its cousins seemingly died. bag-like organisms. They that is as far as I would go,” says Simon millimetres thick and up to 2 metres Four fossils were found in upstate may have been animals, Conway Morris at the University of long. Nobody knows if they were New York in the early 20th century. plants or something else” Cambridge. Colin Barras ■

8 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 For daily news stories, visit newscientist.com/news

Google’s new in Latin America, owes 22 per cent of its ancestry to Criollo. voice is as good The research suggests the bean’s domestication began as your own 3600 years ago. In line with this, pottery from the Olmec city of WHEN machines speak, they sound San Lorenzo in what is now stilted, robotic and mechanical — but Mexico, from 1600 to 1800 BC, they are getting better. Google’s has traces of theobromine – a latest text-to-speech system, called chemical found in cocoa. Tacotron 2, generates sounds entirely When the researchers compared from scratch. The search giant claims genomes from today’s Criollo the results are as good as those built and other trees, they found that using professional voice artists. domesticated Criollo had genes Most previous systems produce that are possibly associated with speech by assembling human- lower levels of chemicals called recorded vocal sounds into words and polyphenols. If so, that could sentences. In comparison, Tacotron 2 account for its cocoa tasting less was trained on more than 24 hours of bitter than it once did. human speech and corresponding The study should be “a huge transcripts, and could then generate contribution to cacao genomics completely new audio of phrases from science”, says molecular biologist a given text even if it had never seen INGO ARNDT/NATUREPL Mark Guiltinan at Pennsylvania some of the words before. The system State University in Philadelphia. relies on a type of algorithm called a Understanding the cocoa tree’s neural network, inspired by the way Lust for chocolate has genetic diversity will help breed neurons connect in the brain. disease-resistant plants, he says. Stephen Cox at the University fatallyweakenedthetree The chocolate market is worth of East Anglia, UK, says the Google over $100 billion per year, says system is “impressive” because it THE world loves chocolate, but are extreme challenges to cocoa as research firm Markets and Markets, learns all aspects of speech — thousands of years of selective a crop. As a chocolate company… and demand continues to grow. including punctuation, prosody (the breeding have drastically changed we want to protect cocoa.” We need to breed robustness “tune” of the voice) and intonation — the genome of cocoa trees. The team found mutations that back into cocoa trees, says Kevin without expert intervention. The plants now produce tastier compromise productivity in many Folta at the University of Florida However, it is only the best chocolate, but they also make less trees from different populations. in Gainesville. The 200 genomes examples that are really good, says of it due to harmful mutations These mutations were particularly should allow advantageous traits Antti Suni at the University of Helsinki that are putting the future of our pronounced in a rare kind of from wild trees to be bred into in Finland. “In longer utterances, the chocolate supply at risk. cocoa bean called Criollo, which domestic plants, he says. This task lack of understanding of the content of To understand what is is urgent, “because the tree takes the text would likely be heard,” he says. happening, a team led by Juan “There is a small global so long to grow”. The Google researchers admit in a Motamayor, a geneticist at surplus of cocoa now, but This is especially important in blog post that the system stumbles chocolate maker Mars, has now we may face shortages as west Africa, which produces over complex words, such as sequenced 200 genomes of soon as 2020” around two-thirds of the global “decorum” and “merlot”, and can domestic and wild trees. It is the cocoa supply. The ageing West sometimes produce random strange first study of cocoa on such a scale has a nutty flavour and is used to African population is yet another noises. Plus, it can’t generate audio The key ingredient in chocolate make some of the most expensive genetic bottleneck, and is showing in real time, or be controlled to sound is the seeds of the cocoa or cacao chocolate (bioRxiv, doi.org/chpx). reduced disease resistance and a certain way, such as happy or sad. tree (Theobroma cacao),anativeof This could be due to breeding lower crop yields. Other rival systems exist, such as the tropical forests in Central and efforts to produce cocoa that “Right now, we’re fitting one Deep Voice produced by the Chinese South America. Today, most cocoa tastes less bitter, says Motamayor. variety to God knows how many internet company Baidu. The latest beans are grown in West Africa. “That created an accumulation of landscapes, soils, water and iteration, Deep Voice 3, is set to be However, the trees are tricky mutations that led to a loss of climate regimes,” says Carl Wahl, unveiled at a conference in April. to grow. They are susceptible to fitness, where these cocoa trees an agriculture adviser at Concern “The indications are that we are many diseases and become less produce very little.” Worldwide in London. “It would witnessing the birth of a new productive as they age. There is a Although most chocolate is be nice if farmers and the generation of speech synthesisers small global surplus of cocoa, but made from other beans, genetic agriculture industries in these whose speech quality is virtually we may face shortages by 2020. material from Criollo is found in countries had a few different indistinguishable from human Mars says it funds Motomayor’s many of them. For example, CCN- things to work with when they are speech,” says Cox. Nicole Kobie ■ work to protect its business:“There 51, a key cultivar used for breeding plant breeding.” Chris Baraniuk ■

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 9 NEWS & TECHNOLOGY

Gaming really can be bad for you

Timothy Revell Additionally, the draft says that adverse gaming behaviour will CAN playing too many video normally need to have continued games be a mental health for at least a year before a person’s condition? In some circumstances, diagnosis can be confirmed. the World Health Organization “Health professionals thinks that it can, New Scientist need to recognise that gaming has learned. disorder may have serious The WHO is to include gaming health consequences,”says disorder in its International Vladimir Poznyak at the WHO’s

Classification of Diseases for Department of Mental Health and IMAGES/GETTY SOPA the first time. This widely used Substance Abuse. Most people diagnostic manual was last who play video games don’t have other conditions linked to University in the UK. updated in 1990, and the latest a disorder, just like most people technology, such as smartphone But Allen Frances at Duke version – called ICD-11 – is set who drink alcohol don’t have a addiction or internet addiction. University in North Carolina to be published in 2018. disorder either. However, in some “There is simply a lack of evidence worries that official recognition The wording of the gaming circumstances overuse can lead to that these are real disorders,” of gaming disorder could lead to disorder entry that will be adverse effects, says Poznyak. says Poznyak. the diagnosis being misapplied. included in ICD-11 is yet to be The prevalence of gaming “Tens, perhaps hundreds, of finalised, but the draft currently “Most people who play disorder is largely unknown. millions of recreational gamers lists a variety of criteria clinicians video games don’t have a A range of criteria and definitions without severe impairment could use to determine whether disorder. But overuse can exist, and estimates of the will likely be mislabelled and a person’s gaming has become lead to adverse effects” proportion of gamers who have overtreated,” he says. a serious health condition. a problem range from 0.2 per cent “Soon we may have calls for According to this draft, someone The WHO first began up to 20 per cent, depending on ‘shopping disorder’, ‘jogging has gaming disorder if they give considering gaming disorder which study you read. disorder’, ‘workaholic disorder’, increasing priority to gaming as a medical condition a decade “This is a very big discrepancy. ‘binge watching disorder’ and my “to the extent that gaming ago. Through consultation with The reason this work is so own personal favourite ‘beach takes precedence over other mental health professionals, the important is because it will allow bum disorder’,” says Frances. life interests”,and that they agency has decided to officially standardisation of diagnostic “Everything people passionately will continue to game despite recognise gaming disorder in its criteria across the world,” says like doing can be degraded into negative consequences. next diagnostic manual, but not Daria Kuss at Nottingham Trent fake mental illness.” ■

“They castrate, which means that To confirm this, Ocampo and his Sex organ they halt or stop the reproduction colleagues examined females using parasites have of the snail they use as host,” says a scanning electron microscope. But Emiliano Ocampo at the National they found the sex organs of juvenile trouble mating University of Mar del Plata, Argentina. females cannot store sperm (Journal Pea crabs only seem to parasitise of Morphology, doi.org/chpk). CASTRATOR pea crabs live up to female limpets. These molluscs store There have been observations their name. They reside in the sex eggs in their sex organs, but won’t lay of males leaving their hosts and organs of molluscs and stop them any if they have a resident pea crab. wandering about. Ocampo says it reproducing. But the pea crabs’ There is just one problem with the is likely males do this to look for odd lifestyle also makes it tricky pea crabs’ lifestyle: it is hard to find a females. “The female lives inside the for them to find a mate. mate when everyone is hiding inside host and waits for the male pea crab The crabs (Calyptraeotheres garthi) a limpet’s gonads. to copulate with them,” he says. are tiny parasitic crustaceans found Juvenile pea crabs live in the open The find implies that limpets

off the east coast of South America. ocean and only settle down in limpets DR NICOLAS CHIARADIA hosting male pea crabs may be better They spend most of their adult lives when they are older. So researchers off than those with females because, in the sex organs of slipper limpets, assumed they must mate as juveniles A castrator pea crab as well as being smaller, males may a type of snail. and store sperm for later. (Calyptraeotheres garthi)– ultimately leave. Joshua Rapp Learn ■

10 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 Streamline analysis, expand possibilities

E-Gel Power Snap Electrophoresis System DNA separation

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maintain my centre of balance. So far, 40 people between the ages of 65 and 90 have been trained on this course, each undergoing three 40-minute sessions. Tests show that by the

NEUROSCIENCE RESEARCH AUSTRALIA end, participants were half as likely to fall on the obstacle course as those who had undergone sham training in which no traps were set on the course. The team is planning to study whether this training results in fewer falls in real life. “Anecdotally, participants have told us it’s helped them and they’re even getting their friends to sign up,” says Okubo. Next, the lab wants to start inviting people with Parkinson’s disease and multiple sclerosis – who are especially at risk of falling. Howtonottripupathome Anne Tiedemann at the University of Sydney says research is showing that exercises Alice Klein carpet, says Stephen Lord at I fall each time. If the harness that challenge balance and involve Neuroscience Research Australia. catches 30 per cent of my body lots of movement work best for MY FOOT slips on a loose tile “That’s why we designed this weight or more, they know I preventing falls. These should and for a split-second I’m flailing obstacle course, so that people can would have hit the floor without ideally begin before older people in mid-air, but then I feel a learn to react better when things it. Fortunately, my average fall have their first fall, she says. comforting tug as my harness like this come up in real life.” load is about 10 per cent of my “Most falls will just result in a pulls me upright. I’m at the falls Before I try out the course, body weight, which I’m told is minor cut or bruise, but it’s the prevention lab in Sydney, where I strap on knee, shin and toe pads. appropriate for my thirty- psychology that changes,” she a first-of-its-kind obstacle course Next, Lord and colleague Yoshiro something age bracket. says. “People often become more has been designed to make Okubo attach my harness, which They also analyse how I react fearful about falling and stop seniors fall over – and then is like a big nappy hanging from by studying the stick-figure doing physical activity and going instinctively learn how not to. the ceiling. Finally, they cover me avatar that has been copying out, and that’s when things can in reflective stickers so they can my movements (pictured below). go downhill.” “Conventional balance track my motion using cameras. It shows that I instinctively stop Lord thinks the training has training doesn’t prepare The 10-metre-long obstacle myself from falling by flinging my even helped him. After doing you for a wet floor or a pet course looks pretty benign – arms out sideways and bending some pilot testing of the obstacle camouflaged on a carpet” similar to a tiled bathroom floor. my knees at the right angle to course himself earlier this year, However, it is actually full of he slipped on a wet grassy slope One-third of people over the booby traps, including loose tiles while walking back to his car. age of 65 fall every year, often as a and spring-loaded planks of wood “I didn’t see it coming – I just felt result of poorer eyesight, weaker that pop up without warning. the ground suddenly give way – muscles or dizziness from illness I’m a little nervous as I gingerly but I was able to quickly react and or medication. When older people step onto the course. I can’t help stay on my feet,” he says. “It made fall, they are more likely to break shrieking when the first trap me think, ‘OK, that wasn’t so bad, bones, setting off a chain of health gives me a fright and makes me I feel more confident now’.” problems–aquarter of adults stumble. But then it starts to NEUROSCIENCE RESEARCH AUSTRALIA After the harness comes off and aged 69 or older who fracture become fun, and I relax enough to I have to support my own body their hip die within a year. notice how my body instinctively weight again, I find that I am more Training to prevent this usually keeps me on my feet.“You’re conscious of where I place my feet involves balance exercises, such gradually building up muscle and how my leg muscles stabilise as standing on one leg. But these memory so you remember how the rest of my body. Hopefully don’t adequately prepare people not to fall,”says Okubo. next time my cat suddenly runs for unexpected hazards like a wet The researchers monitor my Monitoring how people react to the between my legs, I will be able to floor or a pet camouflaged on a progress by recording how heavily traps helps them stay on their feet put my new skills to good use. ■

12 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 WINTER CRISIS APPEAL

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Parallel universes fix black hole hitch

Anil Ananthaswamy become intensely energetic, forming a firewall. WHEN it comes to black holes, But such firewalls go against we are caught between a rock the tenets of general relativity, and a hard place. A black hole, which says that space-time near it seems, is either enveloped the event horizon should be by a blazing“firewall”,defying smooth and devoid of any high- Einstein’s general relativity, energy flare-ups. The black hole or it destroys information in firewall paradox was born. violation of quantum mechanics. Now, Sean Carroll at the But a new analysis using the California Institute of Technology

“many worlds” interpretation of and his colleagues have shown PHOTO STOCK LIBRARY/ALAMY PHOTO SCIENCE this theory, which says that each that the paradox disappears when possible outcome of a quantum the evolution of black holes is evaporation due to Hawking individual branches, he says. event exists in its own world, understood in the context of the radiation – both of which are Information is preserved across shows that black holes present many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanical processes all branches of the global wave no such paradoxes. quantum mechanics. with different possible function, but not necessarily In the 1970s, Stephen Hawking The quantum state of the outcomes – lead to multiple in any one branch. Given this showed that all black holes give universe is described by branches of the wave function. scenario, a black hole that off thermal radiation and something called the global wave An observer monitoring a black doesn’t lose information and yet eventually evaporate. In doing function. According to traditional hole also splits into multiple has a smooth, uneventful event so, they seemed to be destroying quantum mechanics, whenever observers, one in each branch. horizon without a firewall isn’t information contained in the there are many possible outcomes The new work shows that from a contradiction (arxiv.org/ matter that fell into them, thereby for a physical process, this wave the perspective of an observer in a abs/1712.04955). falling foul of a cardinal rule of function “collapses” to represent given branch, space-time behaves Yasunori Nomura at the quantum mechanics: information one outcome. But in the many- as ordained by general relativity University of California at cannot be created or destroyed. worlds interpretation, the wave and the black hole has no firewall. Berkeley has independently Some argued that the outgoing function doesn’t collapse – rather But does that imply loss of arrived at similar conclusions “Hawking radiation”preserved it branches, with one branch for information? No, says team in his work. He agrees that the the information. However, if each outcome. The branches member Aidan Chatwin-Davies, many-worlds approach resolves this were the case, then given evolve independently of each also of Caltech. That is because the paradox around information certain assumptions, the event other, as separate worlds. the principle of preservation of loss from black holes. “Many horizon – the black hole’s In this way of thinking, the information applies to the global worlds should be taken seriously,” boundary of no return – would formation of a black hole and its wave function and not to its he says. ■

the material could completely heal their old bones back,” says Zreiqat. plates and screws frequently cause 3D-printed broken leg bones in rabbits. Now, The team found that the sheep discomfort, and bone grafts are bones turn into in work yet to be published, they tolerated the implants well and that often rejected by the recipients’ have shown it can also repair large there were no toxic side effects as immune systems. the real deal leg fractures in sheep. they dissolved. They probably melded The “ink” the team used in the The eight sheep in the study easily with existing bones because 3D-printing process was a mixture NO METAL plates or screws needed: were able to walk on the implants they had a similar composition, of calcium silicate, a mineral called a new 3D-printed ceramic implant immediately after surgery, with says Zreiqat. gahnite, and small amounts of mends broken legs by holding the plaster casts helping to stabilise This contrasts with many of the strontium and zinc that are found fractured parts together, then turning their legs for the first four weeks. currently available treatments for as trace elements in bone. The into natural bone. The researchers saw complete healing broken bones. For example, metal leg implants were designed to be porous The implant has the same strength in 25 per cent of the fractures after scaffolds so that natural bone and as real bone, and is made by Hala three months and 88 per cent after “X-raysshowedthatas blood vessels could grow through Zreiqat at the University of Sydney one year. X-rays showed that as the therealbonesgrewback, them and restore the skeleton. in Australia and her colleagues. In real bones grew back, the scaffolds thescaffoldsgradually The next step for the team is to test previous studies, they showed that gradually dissolved away. “They got dissolved away” the implants in people. Alice Klein ■

14 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 N E W SC S O

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team took body fat from mice that The findings should change had been exposed to a pathogen, the way we think about fat, says Body fat helps and implanted it in mice that had Anthony Ferrante at Columbia never been infected with it. University, New York. “If you fight infections When these mice were then picked up a textbook, it would list exposed to the bacteria or the immune organs as the lymph parasite, the memory cells in nodes, thymus, but this study Jessica Hamzelou Belkaid’s team found that the donated fat kicked into gear, and others are changing that.” monkeys also have plenty of giving them as much protection Fat should be considered an DID you pile on the pounds this memory T-cells in their body fat, as if they had encountered the immune organ, too, he says. Christmas? At least you can take and that these cells worked better pathogen before (Immunity, Not all fat is good. When people some comfort in the fact that not than those from other organs. doi.org/chcd). “It is sufficient to become obese, the relationship all fat is bad. Evidence in mice and “It means that fat tissue is provide good protection against between fat tissue and immune monkeys suggests it is important not only a reservoir for memory an infection,” says Belkaid. cells seems to change, leading to for storing essential immune cells, but those memory cells She thinks these memory harmful inflammation. However, cells and may even boost their have enhanced function,”says T-cells are particularly powerful having some fat is very healthy, effectiveness at fighting infection. Belkaid.“The tissue is like a magic because they may be feeding on says Belkaid. Yasmine Belkaid at the US potion that can optimally activate the energy-rich fat tissue they “I don’t think the small National Institutes of Health and the T-cells.” are stored in. “It has an enormous perturbations in fat we her team have found that a type In a further experiment, the amount of nutrients,” she says. experience from having a bit of immune cell – called a memory too much goose at Christmas T-cell – seems to be stored in the are going to affect our immune body fat of mice. These cells learn systems,”says Ferrante.“But to fight infection. Once exposed one perhaps can take some to a pathogen, they mount a solace in [the knowledge] that stronger response the next time good things are going on in our they encounter it. fat while we’re eating.” When the researchers infected Belkaid is now looking for mice with parasites or bacteria, immune cells in biopsies of they found that memory T-cells human fat tissue. If she finds clustered densely in the animals’ them, she will try to discover body fat. Tests showed that these what exactly the fat cells do to cells seemed to be more effective increase their power. She hopes than those stored in other organs, this could lead to new ways to for example by being better at boost our body’s immune replicating and at releasing response to infections, cancer infection-fighting chemicals. and vaccinations. “You could After exposing the mice to take immune cells from a person, the same pathogens again, the make them more aggressive and memory T-cells stored in their more able to fight cancer, and fat were the fastest to respond. MAY/GETTY EBBY then put them back,” she says. ■

research agency the CNRS in Paris there could be 1 to 100 wandering moons some of the early chaos. Cast-off moons and his colleagues used simulations moons for every star in the Milky Way. One intriguing outcome from the doomed to roam to figure out what happens to moons In the simulations, moons orbiting model is the possibility that some as their planets are still forming close to their planets were the only cast-off moons may not escape the cosmos (arXiv.org/abs/1712.06500). ones to survive – those further away altogether but instead stay orbiting Planets are born in the chaos of ended up on the loose. their home stars as dwarf planets THE universe may be awash with early stellar systems, where they Our solar system with its many like Pluto. wandering, rejected moons, expelled can easily be jostled out of position moons may be an anomaly, Raymond Sometimes, a whole planet can from their planets’ orbit long ago. by neighbouring worlds. This can says. The biggest planets are fairly be cast away from its star but still Nobody has ever conclusively seen have a catastrophic effect on any far from the sun, with stable circular hang onto its moon. If that moon is a moon orbiting a planet in another moons hanging around. orbits. That could have spared their close enough to its parent planet, star system. While their small size and The researchers’ model showed it could have warmth and chemical great distance makes them tough to that in 80 to 90 per cent of cases, “Therecouldbe1to100 complexity driven by tidal heating, find, it is also possible that there just planets shed their primordial former moons wandering making for an oddly habitable world aren’t very many out there anymore. moons. Most of them were cast into through space for every around a planet with no sun in its sky. Sean Raymond at French national interstellar space, and Raymond says star in the Milky Way” John Wenz ■

16 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 See the world differently

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NASA Gene editing slows hearing loss

HEARING loss in mice with a form of progressive deafness has been slowed by CRISPR genome editing. Our cells have two copies of most genes, but a mutation in just one copy can sometimes cause disease. Such disorders could in theory be cured by switching off only the mutated copy. David Liu at Harvard University and his colleagues have tried doing this with CRISPR in mice carrying a mutated copy of the gene TMC1, which causes a rare form of hearing loss in people. They injected the CRISPR protein and an RNA guide designed to target only faulty versions of the gene into the ears of the mice. It wasn’t a complete cure, but injected mice could still hear very loud sounds when they were 8 weeks old, unlike uninjected mice (Nature, doi.org/chnx). Mars-sized rock smashed Later, two other hypotheses arose for why the moon is If improved, the approach Earth’s chemical clone, but they predict radically different might lead to treatments for Earth to make the moon masses for Theia. The chemical effects of the collision inherited deafness in people. depend on Theia’s mass, so James Badro at the Paris A SMALL rock can pack a mighty punch. The object that Institute of Earth Physics and his colleagues set out to smashed into Earth about 4.5 billion years ago to create determine how each idea matches up with our planet’s Google AI made the moon was relatively small — roughly one-tenth the chemistry (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/chnp). mass of Earth, about the mass of Mars, according to the They ran more than 2 billion simulations of the crash, to look foolish latest modelling. tweaking Theia’s mass and other properties of young Astronomers have long suspected that the moon was Earth, such as whether it was entirely molten or not. No TRICKING artificial intelligence created when a giant protoplanet called Theia struck the matter the scenario, they found that an impactor larger has never been easier. newly formed Earth. The collision created a cloud of than 15 per cent of the mass of Earth cannot produce the One way to fool an AI into debris, which quickly coalesced into our planet’s partner. chemistry we see in Earth’s mantle. A heavier object misclassifying an image is by But this giant impact idea alone cannot explain why the assembles a mantle too rich in nickel and cobalt. So Theia adding in small perturbations moon and Earth are chemically identical. was probably not the behemoth we thought it to be. that make the AI think it looks like something else. Such “adversarial examples” can now be generated a Invincible animals meet their match about from damage to the thousand times faster than before. ozone layer. Anish Athalye at the THEY can survive freezing, total subjected Antarctic tardigrades to However, high temperatures Massachusetts Institute of desiccation, and being sent into dehydration, rising temperatures, and high radiation together often Technology and colleagues have space. But climate change might and ultraviolet radiation. proved fatal for these Antarctic created an algorithm that, by be too much for the world’s The animals coped well with denizens. Those that endured changing an image pixel by pixel, hardiest animal, the tardigrade. individual stressors. They radiation reached sexual produced a thousand adversarial Tardigrades, or water bears, handled desiccation by shutting maturity later, laid fewer eggs and examples to fool Google’s image live in many environments. They down their metabolism, entering sometimes developed abnormally recognition system (arxiv.org/ are one of the few organisms a state known as anhydrobiosis. (Journal of Experimental Biology, abs/1712.07113). One was an image that are abundant in Antarctica. They also tolerated periods of doi.org/chnr). of a dog that was wrongly identified Lorena Rebecchi at the temperatures up to 33°C and, Nevertheless, Rebecchi says as two people skiing. If driverless University of Modena and Reggio separately, high ultraviolet tardigrades are more resistant cars are confused just as easily the Emilia, Italy, and her colleagues radiation – which might come to change than most species. consequences may be severe.

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 19 IN BRIEF For new stories every day, visit newscientist.com/news

Plants’ sand shield Red Planet rubble may have stolen its water

repels caterpillars WATER-slurping rocks may be In an effort to figure out what left behind would have floated to blame for the Red Planet’s else could explain it, Jon Wade at out to space. SOME plants have an odd defensive arid surface. the University of Oxford and his The rocks then would have tactic against insects. It seems they Billions of years ago, Mars colleagues simulated the planet’s sunk deep into the Martian use sand grains as abrasive armour probably had just as much water early geological reactions with mantle, hiding the oxygen away that damages the insects’ teeth. as Earth – but most of that is now water. They found that because and stealing the planet’s water These “psammophorous” plants gone. It has been suggested that Martian rocks are full of iron oxide, for good. As the rocks sank, so did have sticky surfaces to which sand it vanished once Mars lost the they can drink in about 25 per cent Mars’s chances for life. adheres. This sand was suspected magnetic field that protected more water than rubble on Earth For complex life as we know it to be involved in protecting against it from the harsh solar wind, (Nature, doi.org/chnd). to evolve, a world needs to have herbivorous insects, but this was allowing the planet’s early Once the water soaked into water for billions of years, says only tested in 2016. Eric LoPresti of atmosphere and surface water the rock, it couldn’t seep back Wade. With almost all the water the University of California, Davis, to escape into space. But recent out. That’s because the iron oxide sucked away into the ground early showed that plants with sand coats research has shown that this would have incorporated the in Mars’s history, it is unlikely that are eaten less. LoPresti and his process may be unable to account water’s oxygen atoms into its anything more than microbes colleagues have now examined why. for the loss of all the water. structure, while the free hydrogen could have evolved there. The team raised caterpillars on beach plants called sand verbenas (Abronia latifolia), which were Killer cells keep either sand-covered or “clean”. Some caterpillars were white-lined fetuses healthy sphinxes, which take big bites of leaves. Others were “leaf-miners” YOUR body’s natural killer (NK) that eat the leaf interior. The team cells have a soft side. These tracked their growth and behaviour. immune cells normally take out The leaf miners were equally cancer cells and pathogens, but DUNCAN USHER/MINDEN PICTURES/FLPA happy on sandy or clean plants, it seems they also nourish early but more than 80 per cent of fetuses, helping them grow. white-lined sphinx caterpillars Zhigang Tian at the University preferred clean foliage. Eating sand of Science and Technology of hobbled their development, slowing China and his team have found a their maturation and stunting their subset of the cells in mice that are growth. The rough sand also eroded made only during early pregnancy their mandibles, making it harder in the uterus. These cells for them to feed (Ecological produced large quantities of two Entomology, doi.org/chnj). proteins vital for growing fetuses: “We were astounded by how pleiotrophin and osteoglycin. worn down the caterpillars’ The team examined uterine mandibles got after less than a tissue from 54 women and found Crows make up after food fights week of feeding,” says LoPresti. that those who had recently experienced miscarriages had EVEN a murder of crows has a soft The team kept carrion crows in fewer of these uterine NK cells side. The birds will make up or seek a cage. When they put food in, the than people whose pregnancies comfort after a fight, whether it was birds fought more when the food ERIC LOPRESTI ERIC had been successful. with a friend or a stranger. was limited. The food shortage When the team genetically Crows belong to a group called caused tempers to flare. engineered female mice to be corvids, known for their intelligence. If the crows were only mildly unable to make these NK cells, They form long-lasting relationships aggressive, the aggressor would the animals had fetuses that were with other members of their gang. often seek the victim out after the half normal size. Giving uterine To find out how they form new food was gone. It would sit close by, NK cells to these mice when relationships, Miriam Sima at the touching and preening the victim’s pregnant, however, boosted Max Planck Institute for Ornithology feathers (Ethology, doi.org/chnk). the size of offspring (Immunity, in Germany and her colleagues However, if the violence was more doi.org/chnz). studied crows that were unfamiliar severe, perpetrators gave victims a Tian’s team hopes these cells to each other. They wanted to wide berth, and victims often sought can be used to treat women who see how the crows would react to consolation from a crow that hadn’t have recurrent miscarriages or scuffles between relative strangers. been involved in the squabble. underweight babies.

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The imitation game What will happen now that the NHS is substituting expensive biological drugs with cheaper knock-offs, asks Alice Klein

BIOLOGICAL drugs are the new termed biosimilars, aren’t versions of the arthritis drugs patchy. NHS figures show that in darlings of medicine. In recent exact copies.“Whereas aspirin infliximab, etanercept and some UK regions only 10 per cent years, they have doubled is like a bicycle – it doesn’t have rituximab became available of patients are being switched to treatment rates for several many parts and is easy to copy – in the UK in 2015, 2016 and infliximab biosimilars, compared cancers, arthritis and Crohn’s a biological drug is more like a 2017 respectively. Biosimilar with 100 per cent in others. In disease. But these medicines, jetplane,”says Gregory Moore versions of trastuzumab and the US, biosimilars have captured which are large, complex at Monash Medical Centre in bevacizumab – another cancer just 7 per cent of the infliximab molecules produced by living Melbourne. medicine – were approved by the market, while in Australia they cells, carry hefty price tags, and But that hasn’t stopped firms US Food and Drug Administration have grabbed a mere 4 per cent. now comprise eight of the world’s developing biosimilars as patents (FDA) in the past four months, and Clearly, there is a need for top 10 money-spinning drugs. for the first wave of blockbuster many more are in the pipeline. change. Norway introduced a A one-year course of the biologics expire. Biosimilar However, uptake has been similar policy to the NHS’s plan, biological breast cancer drug trastuzumab (sold as Herceptin), for example, costs $50,000. In the UK, biologics have contributed to a 29 per cent rise in National Health Service spending on drugs since 2010. That’s why, starting this year, the NHS plans to substitute all

“Some doctors are worried these cheaper copies won’t work as well or as safely. Are these fears justified?”

brand-name biologics for cheaper generic versions, hoping to cut costs by up to 70 per cent. Some doctors are worried these cheaper copies won’t work as well or as safely, saying that competing firms won’t be able to perfectly replicate complex biologics. Are these fears justified or simply big pharma scaremongering? Because biologics are made by cells, they are tricky to copy. Trastuzumab, for instance, is a multichained protein secreted by Chinese hamster ovary cells. Different cell batches and even temperature and light can subtly alter the product. So unlike chemical drugs such as aspirin, generic biologics,

Biological drugs, like trastuzumab,

are tough to perfectly replicate LIBRARY PHOTO PASIEKA/SCIENCE ALFRED

22 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 For daily news stories, visit newscientist.com/news

and has seen a big impact. Since Top 10 drugs with the highest global sales (Biological drugs in orange) his hospital, where he is head of 2014, the country has required all inflammatory bowel disease, patients who are newly prescribed Drug 2016 sales ($billion) Condition has a policy of not prescribing infliximab to be given the Adalimumab 16.1 Arthritis, IBD* biosimilars, he says. cheapest biosimilar available. Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir 9.1 Hepatitis C AbbVie pays speaker fees to Companies compete to win an Etanercept 8.9 Arthritis Moore and is a major financial annual tender to supply the drug, Rituximab 8.6 Arthritis, leukaemia supporter of his hospital, but which has seen the drug price drop Infliximab 7.8 Arthritis, IBD* Moore says patient safety, not by 72 per cent from about $2500 Lenalidomide 7.0 Multiple myeloma brand loyalty, is his concern. per dose. A randomised, double- Bevacizumab 6.8 Bowel, lung, kidney, cervical cancer “When the originator drug has blind controlled trial funded by the Trastuzumab 6.8 Breast and stomach cancer kept your patient well for years, government found no significant Insulin glargine 6.1 Diabetes and a new player comes to market differences when 482 patients Pneumococcal vaccine 5.7 Pneumonia prevention that doesn’t have quite the same with arthritis, Crohn’s disease and *Inflammatory bowel disease robustness, that’s going to play other inflammatory conditions SOURCE: www.genengnews.com/the-lists/the-top-15-best-selling-drugs-of-2016/77900868 on your mind.” were maintained on brand-name Fleischmann says he has the infliximab or switched to a their products are just as effective Rheumatology, titled“The data same mindset.“It may be fine to biosimilar for one year. and safe before they can be sold. is not convincing”.Fleischmann switch patients to biosimilars, Other Nordic countries have This includes running a clinical confirmed he had received but what if it isn’t? We don’t have also enthusiastically adopted trial that compares the biosimilar payments from AbbVie, but enough evidence yet.” generic biologics. Infliximab with the brand-name product. declined to discuss their amount On the other hand, Jeffrey biosimilars now make up 96 per Dozens of trials have confirmed or purpose with New Scientist. Aronson, a clinical pharmacologist cent of the market share in that they are as good as the In the US, insurers are also at the Centre for Evidence-Based Denmark, 88 per cent in Finland originals. So why are some limiting access to biosimilars. Medicine at the University of and 34 per cent in Sweden. doctors so reluctant to use them? For example, 58 per cent of health Oxford, says the same concerns There have been no significant Belinda Wood, departing plans don’t cover infliximab should apply to brand-name problems with the swap. In CEO of Australia’s Generic and biosimilars. In September, biologics. “The great difficulty for Denmark, where a nationwide Biosimilar Medicines Association, Pfizer, which makes one of these all biological drugs, originators registry was set up to monitor all which represents manufacturers, biosimilars, sued originator included, is that manufacturing patients switched to biosimilar puts it down to two factors: company Johnson & Johnson for variability means that each batch infliximab, no worsening in their brand loyalty and big pharma allegedly arranging“biosimilar is slightly different,”he says. disease was observed after a year. fearmongering.“The fact that exclusion”deals with insurers. For this reason, he would like these are called‘similar’means “Things get nasty,”says Wood. to see better monitoring of both Safetoswap? that originators can say,‘Hey “We’re talking about big-dollar originators and biosimilars doctor, they’re not quite the products here, so companies have after they enter the market. However, doctors in other same, maybe you should be a a heck of a lot to lose.” At the moment, the UK countries remain wary. A 2016 bit worried’,”she says. Then again, Moore says doctors Medicines and Healthcare study found that only 45 per cent Companies with patents on have legitimate concerns about products Regulatory Agency of 1200 surveyed US physicians the original biologics appear to invites patients and doctors to thought biosimilars were safe be heavily investing in shoring up “Only 45 per cent of 1200 report any drug problems. and appropriate to prescribe. brand support. For example, drug surveyed US physicians Biosimilar manufacturers are also Patients are also uncertain. firm AbbVie made $45 million in thought biosimilars were required to monitor small groups A 2016 survey of more than payments, including speaking safe to prescribe” of patients after they start using 3000 people in the US, UK, France, and consulting fees, to more than the drugs. But Aronson believes a Spain, Germany and Italy found 27,000 US doctors between 2013 biosimilars. One is that they only nationwide registry that monitors that the vast majority of the and 2015 related to its biological need to be shown to be equivalent all patients taking biologics would general public had never heard arthritis drug adalimumab. This to the originator drug for one be helpful, so that any dodgy of biological drugs or biosimilars. is currently the world’s top-selling condition, say rheumatoid batches could quickly be Of those being treated with drug, but biosimilar competitors arthritis, to gain regulatory identified and pulled. biologics, only 10 per cent were are due in October. approval. That means they can be Clearly, biosimilars must be aware of biosimilars, and less Influential doctors are a prime used to treat another condition, evaluated properly before and than half of those said they would target. For instance, AbbVie paid like inflammatory bowel disease, after they enter the market, feel comfortable with switching, more than $50,000 in consulting without needing further trials. but so far it seems there is no real fearing their safety and efficacy. fees and expenses between 2013 Moreover, because biologics reason to fear them. With the NHS But why? Lack of evidence and 2015 to Roy Fleischmann at usually target the immune strapped for cash, switching to doesn’t seem to be the issue. the University of Texas, who last system, slightly different versions cheaper drugs seems an obvious Regulators like the FDA and year gave a talk on biosimilars could potentially cause severe move. Patients don’t care who European Medicines Agency at the annual meeting of the allergic reactions in some makes their drugs – they just require manufacturers to prove American College of patients, says Moore. That is why want them to work. ■

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 23 COMMENT

Slim chance of success

Calories in, calories out, or CiCo to its new devotees on social media, is all the dietary rage. It just doesn’t add up, says Anthony Warner

ANYTHING with an acronym is sensible. And it’s honest in not to be trusted in my view, so acknowledging that an energy I was dismayed to hear that the deficit is required for weight loss. CiCo diet was spreading like But with its simplicity come wildfire across social media. CiCo difficulties and dangers. When stands for “calories in, calories people restrict what they eat, out” and is based on the not- keeping nutrition balanced and entirely-revolutionary principle adequate can be harder, especially that if you eat fewer calories than if you opt to get all your calories you burn, weight loss will ensue. from cheese and onion crisps. The seemingly attractive notion For me though, the main issue of eating whatever you want as with CiCo is that despite initial long as you stick to this principle, weight loss being likely, the odds plus anecdotes of success, seems to are it will not work for long. Our have fanned the flames of this idea bodies have complex and potent for a new generation of devotees. mechanisms that try to keep us at Having spent a lot of time a particular weight, even when staring into the dark heart of diet society does not deem that weight culture, I’m relieved it is at least a ideal. The vast majority of dieters long way from the guilt-inducing regain lost kilos within four or five language of the various exclusion years. Some studies show just 5 to regimes that have dominated 10 per cent manage to keep weight online in the past few years. CiCo off for that long, with plenty does not classify any foods as ending up heavier in the long clean, unclean, toxic, super or term and risking their health. acidic, and in that respect is more I’m sure CiCo will continue to

like Mick Jagger to fly from set for service in the mid-2020s. London to New York in three-and- Developed by Boom Supersonic Second time lucky? a-half hours instead of eight”. of Colorado, it promises a quicker, After Concorde’s retirement quieter flight than Concorde and Supersonic air travel is coming back. Will it be in 2003, the idea of a supersonic fares on a par with subsonic reprisal often surfaced. Only now business-class travel. Lockheed for keeps this time, asks Paul Marks does it look likely, with a growing Martin and partners, including roster of plans for new aircraft. Airbus, also have a Mach 2 design Their real challenge is not to break on the drawing board. HALF a century ago, in Toulouse, “aesthetic and technological the sound barrier, but to make Then there’s the new breed of France, a hangar door swung triumph still tends to outweigh its doing so affordable. space-flight firms. SpaceX said its upward to reveal a wonder of the monumental commercial failure”, Among the most advanced is a BFR rocket – ostensibly for Mars age: the prototype of Concorde. writes James Hamilton-Paterson scaled-down Concorde: a 55-seat, and moon missions – could This gorgeous, delta-winged in his history of British aviation, all-business-class, delta-wing jet provide anywhere-on-Earth, city- Anglo-French jet could fly at Empire of the Clouds. to-city transport in under an hour. twice the speed of sound. It was a The plane’s £1.1 billion, state- “For Concorde’s successors, And Virgin Galactic, focused on marvel of power, metallurgy and backed development, he says, the challenge isn’t breaking suborbital tourist trips with its aerodynamics. But Concorde was meant that French and British the sound barrier, but to rocket plane, also has city-to-city a financial white elephant. Its families paid“to enable people make doing so affordable” travel on its radar. So a supersonic

24 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 For more opinion articles, visit newscientist.com/opinion

proliferate, because framing INSIGHT Global recycling weight loss as a simple matter of self-control is a sales strategy as old as the hills. Persuading us that failure is our fault is how any diet with a poor long-term success rate stays popular. In reality, people gain weight for many reasons, including genetic susceptibility, hormonal imbalances, psychological issues, stress, side effects of medicine, disrupted sleep, stigmatisation, eating disorders and perhaps even a history of restrictive dieting itself. To simply cut calories without considering deeper problems or causes is akin to spooning water out of a sinking ship while JIE ZHAO/CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES ignoring the leaks below deck. Being overweight or obese is made goods to domestic and Western not a single disease with a simple customers – a neat cycle of global cure, it is the physical expression China’s ban on ‘foreign reuse. But there are reports since the of a huge variety of complex July announcement that the ban is factors and conditions. The only already biting, leading to shortages way to really tackle this is to work garbage’ may backfire of cardboard. with individuals and understand “Chinese companies are already their particular problems. running out of cardboard boxes,” says Sadly, this is expensive, difficult Andy Coghlan Western exporters of the banned Simon Ellin, chief executive of the UK and hard work, and it is far easier waste, who want to try to agree a Recycling Association. “Alibaba, the to just blame people for their FORGETTING to put the bins out is much longer transition. The WTO and Chinese equivalent of Amazon, is behaviour. Against that backdrop, one thing, but this is a whole other exporting countries have appealed for having to import cardboard boxes diets like CiCo just don’t add up. ■ recycling disaster. Monday saw the a five-year transitional period. instead from countries like Vietnam.” notional start of China’s ban on waste China has so far agreed a grace Ellin says that confusion over Anthony Warner is a food industry imports, which is threatening to cause period, delaying enforcement of the China’s demand for cleaner cardboard development chef who blogs about global panic, because the nation is ban until 1 March. But there are some is also contributing to the shortage, dietary pseudoscience. He is author of the world’s largest recycler of scrap glimmers of hope that a backlash from as some exporters are withholding The Angry Chef (Oneworld) metals, plastic and paper. Chinese companies equally affected cargoes in case they get turned back It’s not that we weren’t warned. by the ban might add domestic for being too dirty. “It’s a big risk to a Last July, China declared that it was pressure for a calmer transition. business if you don’t know what future is a done deal? One barrier no longer willing to accept yang laji, The biggest piles of newly happens when it gets there,” he says. to a spaceplane route is that the or “foreign garbage”, from 1 January orphaned waste are plastics and Ellin suspects that the recipient US may deem landing a rocket 2018. It notified the World Trade mixed paper waste — things like food companies in Chinese ports are equally abroad as breaching a ban on Organization (WTO) of its plan to ban packaging and newspapers. In 2016, unhappy with the speed of the exporting this technology. the import of 24 types of scrap, transition. “They are not ready for A wider issue is that consumers including plastics for recycling, waste “Alibaba, the Chinese increased inspections, spelling chaos might not agree that faster is textile materials and all unsorted equivalent of Amazon, is at the ports, with containers of waste better. For example, I treasure the waste paper — basically the sort of having to import cardboard backed up like traffic jams,” he says. respite long-haul flights can offer paper that accumulates in household boxes from Vietnam” “I think the impact of the whole from the hectic pace of life. bins. Likewise, imports of cardboard strategy on China itself can’t be But as the White House showed for recycling must be much “cleaner” the US alone sent China 13.2 million underestimated.” by ordering a return to the moon, and free of gravel, dust and stones. tonnes of scrap paper and 775,000 Precisely for that reason — to avoid former glories seem all the rage. So where will this mountain of tonnes of plastics scrap, says Mark harming its own economy – Ellin is If we must relive them, let’s just waste go instead? And it really is a Carpenter of the US Institute of hopeful that China will eventually hope that this time around the mountain – China and Hong Kong Scrap Recycling Industries. agree to a more measured and supersonic dream is affordable. ■ imported 70 per cent of the world’s Much of this mixed paper — along pragmatic transition. Otherwise, plastic waste in 2016. with cardboard itself — gets converted Westerners better hope that local Paul Marks is a technology, aviation and Frantic negotiations are still under within China into cardboard boxes and recycling firms can rapidly fill the void, space-flight writer based in London way between Chinese authorities and packaging for dispatching Chinese- before the plastic begins to pile up. ■

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 25 APERTURE

26 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 Alien world of the Alps

YOU don’t need a spaceship to see alien landscapes up close. Just take a hike in the South Tyrol in northern Italy, where fog and the glow of dawn help create an otherworldly spectacle. These strange formations are called Erdpyramiden in German and Piramidi di terra in Italian, which both translate to earth pyramids. Their origins lie in the boulder-studded moraine clay deposited by glaciers during the last ice age. Torrential rain erodes exposed clay, while the rocks protect material directly beneath them. When the conditions are just right, over time the rocks “rise” out of the landscape. German photographer Kilian Schönberger describes them as “one of the strangest landscape elements of the Alps”. This example, near Plata in the Puster valley, is one of the most admired of several similar formations across the province. Other striking examples can be seen in the hills above the city of Bolzano. Inevitably, such places inspire tales of petrified witches or cursed meadows. Other myths are more original. “For one of these areas there is a prophecy that doomsday arrives when the erosion reaches the stove of a nearby farm,” says Schönberger. The march of nature being what it is, it may be best to get along and see them soon. Jon White

Photographer Kilian Schönberger kilianschoenberger.de

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 27 COVER STORY

WINTER FLU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

The annual flu epidemic is stalking the northern hemisphere. If it is anything like what just hit the southern hemisphere, the winter is going to be a rough ride, says Debora MacKenzie PLAINPICTURE/HOLLANDSE HOOGTE/RICHARD BROCKEN

28 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 WHAT IS FLU? WHY DOES FLU KEEP WHYAREPEOPLE Flu is a small virus with just 11 genes made of RNA. One type, influenza B, COMING BACK? WORRIEDTHISYEAR? infects only humans, and two strains of it are circulating this year: Flu is unique among human diseases. A record number of flu strains are currently Yamagata and Victoria. The other It circulates constantly in cool, dry areas circulating, two in the influenza B group and common type of flu is influenza A. of east Asia, conditions the virus prefers, two influenza A strains, H1N1 and H3N2. Its many strains mostly, and in large but when temperatures drop during the H3N2 is the real problem. Our strongest part harmlessly, infect waterfowl, northern and southern winters, it breaks immunity is to the first kind of flu we caught. but three varieties have adapted to out and begins a tour of the relevant Between 1918 and 1968, no H3N2 viruses humans. Those three plus a few more hemisphere. Because it spreads from person circulated as winter flu, so people born infect other mammals, notably pigs. to person efficiently in exhaled droplets, before 1968 have weaker immunity to it. and can be picked up from contaminated That includes elderly people, whose Influenza A strains are named surfaces, nearly everyone is exposed. faltering immune systems make them more after their two main surface And unlike, say, measles, having flu vulnerable. There are more than four times proteins, haemagglutinin (H) and once doesn’t make you immune to more deaths in seasons dominated by H3N2, neuraminidase (N). There are 18 types catching it. The virus is uniquely talented amounting to 220,000 last winter in Europe. of H and 11 of N in bird viruses, and at dodging our immune systems. The big This year’s H3N2 seems to be especially immune-system antibodies that haemagglutinin protein on its surface severe: in Australia in the winter just past, attack one type don’t recognise gets most of your immune system’s it caused more than three-quarters of all another. Only viruses H1N1, H2N2 attention, and this protein constantly flu cases this year (see diagram, below), and and H3N2 have fully adapted to mutates at seven hotspots. Every few years more than 2.5 times more people than usual humans, and only H1N1 and H3N2 it racks up such a number of mutations sought medical help. The likelihood of dying currently circulate in us. People that many antibodies you made to your was relatively high, with most deaths among sometimes catch other strains of last infection don’t recognise the virus, elderly people – although not all. bird flu, for example H5N6, but and you get sick again. “We don’t really know what makes they cannot spread. You still have some immunity to kinds some winter flu viruses more severe than of flu that are only a little different from others,”says Colin Russell at the University Dominant strains of both A and B viruses you have seen before, which is why of Amsterdam. It’s a mix of the virus’s inbuilt circulate together in the northern much winter flu isn’t as severe as flu can be. weaponry to defeat our immune system and and southern hemisphere winters, The strains best able to evade this kind of our system’s ability to recognise and respond infecting up to half of all people and prior immunity dominate the annual to it fast enough. With this year’s H3N2, causing disease in between 10 and epidemic in each hemisphere, so we only it could be either or both, says Derek Smith 15 per cent. Influenza A is of extra need one vaccine per season – but a new at the University of Cambridge – virologists concern because new viruses, or just one each year. can’t yet tease all the variables apart. > viral genes, sometimes jump from birds to humans and the novel virus can cause an especially severe A global lab network reports the number of specimen samples in suspected outbreaks that pandemic flu. test positive for different flu strains. The H3N2 strain’s dominance made the recent southern hemisphere flu season more severe 30 Northern hemisphere winter flu B (lineage not determined) B (Victoria lineage) 25 B (Yamagata lineage) A (not subtyped) A (H3N2) 20 A (H1N1 2009)

Southern hemisphere winter flu 10

Number of specimens (thousands) 5

0 WHO SOURCE: Week 50 1 10 20 30 40 49 2016 2017

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 29 NEW AND DEADLY WHAT MAKES Birds and some mammals are reservoirs for influenza A viruses. When unfamiliar strains jump species to us, and FLU LETHAL? develop the capability to spread from human to human, there is little natural immunity, and pandemics can result 1.0 1918 1957 Flu’s familiarity belies its deadliness. This Spanish flu Asian flu year marks the centenary of the deadliest 50-100 million dead 0.8 pandemic of recent years, the Spanish flu of 1918 that killed up to 100 million, some 5 per cent of humanity at the time. 0.6 The way flu kills directly is mostly by causing viral pneumonia, a deep infection 1889 0.4 that damages the lungs’ oxygen-absorbing Asiatic or Russian flu 1968 membranes. Pneumonia can also happen (millions) Deaths Hong Kong flu indirectly if the flu virus wipes out immune 0.2 cells that normally keep bacteria in your lungs at bay, triggering a bacterial infection. Compromised immune systems, for 0 example in elderly people and pregnant H1N1 Influenza A women, allow the virus to replicate more H3N8 strains freely and make flu more dangerous. First identified H2N2 Especially in elderly people flu can also Constantly present in Influenza B cause excessive levels of inflammation, human populations normally a broad immune defence against 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 germs. Each year, right after flu season, there is a second, broadly equal wave of deaths from inflammation-triggered conditions Children don’t even face a needle: the UK such as heart attack and stroke. Chronic and other countries give them nose drops conditions that boost inflammation such SHOULD I GET A FLU JAB? containing weakened live virus. This induces as obesity can make flu more dangerous. a broader range of immune reactions and Pneumonia linked to flu is the fourth Yes. Ignore people who swear the vaccine so offers better protection, but official biggest killer of women in the UK, and the gave them flu: the virus in the vaccine is caution about giving live vaccine to elderly sixth biggest killer of men (see diagram, dead, or so crippled it can’t replicate. That people or pregnant women, and the small below). According to the first worldwide direct said, very recent observations suggest that number of manufacturers, have otherwise estimate, published by the World Health past vaccination may sometimes mean limited its use. Organization (WHO) in December 2017, the worse flu in years when the vaccine doesn’t The antiviral drug Tamiflu can help if yearly toll is up to 650,000 just from lung closely match the circulating virus. While you are severely ill. But you should start disease, and 1.3 million from all causes – virologists don’t quite know what to make taking it within two days of symptoms twice what we thought.“If we had another of this yet, it is clear that flu vaccines can starting, which is generally before you vaccine-preventable virus killing that many protect, especially if you are in a vulnerable know whether it will be bad. people we’d be outraged,”says Bram Palache group or prone to nasty complications. of FluPal Consultancy in Amsterdam. Unfortunately, flu vaccination isn’t effective or popular enough to stop flu entirely through“herd immunity”.Each WHY ISN’T THE FLU As elsewhere in the world, an annual spike in the overall death rate in England and Wales person vaccinated has about a 60 per cent corresponds with the arrival of winter flu chance of being protected, and even in the VACCINE BETTER? US, where vaccination is recommended for 20 250 everyone over 6 months old, less than half rate get it. Numbers are similar overall in Europe. Nearly all flu vaccines are made of viruses 16 200 The UK has some of the highest vaccination grown in hens’ eggs, a process dating from rates, at over 70 per cent for the over 65s. the 1940s that takes between six and eight 12 150 The vaccine takes two weeks to kick in, months. One egg is inoculated with a flu so get it soon. Consider the pneumococcal virus that grows well in eggs and has been 8 100 (thousands) vaccine, which protects against post-flu equipped with the H and N proteins from a bacterial pneumonia. Children shed more virus strain thought likely to circulate next 4 50 (per 100,000 population) virus for longer, and respond better to the winter. The world has the capacity to make Weekly deaths from all causes

Influenza-like illness incidence vaccine, so vaccinating them helps protect 1.5 billion doses of vaccine each protecting 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 older people and babies, creating a kind of against three or four strains, and so each SOURCE: OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS herd immunity within households. requiring three to four eggs. Vaccines this

30 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 that one mutation common in egg-grown HOW ELSE CAN I PROTECT H3N2 makes unexpectedly large changes to the injected virus’s surface protein, MYSELF AND OTHERS? so antibodies the immune system produces Vaccination is the best way to 2013 H7N9 to this don’t recognise the wild virus. Avian flu virus crosses to people. It still makes sense to get vaccinated: fewer reduce your likelihood of getting Unofficial death toll: 127 vaccinated than unvaccinated people got flu, or getting it badly – but there sick in Australia this past season. are a few other do’s and don’ts to limit the risk to yourself and those 1997 H5N1 2009 around you Bird flu virus Swine flu transmitted to people 300,000- 6 fatalities 400,000 dead CAN WE MAKE Wash your hands. in Hong Kong Hands pick up virus when you touch contaminated surfaces, then infect you 1977 A BETTER VACCINE? when you touch your mouth or nose, Russian flu. Figures not something we all do constantly (try not available Growing annual flu vaccine in hens’ eggs to for a minute). is cheap. A few manufacturers grow vaccine H1N1 H1N1 (2009) virus in cultured mammalian cells, but Use a face mask. H3N2 this is 20 times more expensive, still takes Only an N95-rated hospital-grade between six and eight months, and may mask keeps virus out, and these make be no more effective. it so hard to breathe that hospitals One innovative technology is to base requiring front line staff to get vaccinated or wear one quietly 1980 2000 2020 vaccines not on a whole virus, but on just its surface proteins. Protein Sciences of report a jump in vaccination rates. Meriden, Connecticut, puts genes for flu’s year contain both the circulating A strains, big surface protein into insect cells and Elbow-bump instead of and one or both of the Bs. Actual production harvests the protein. The vaccine has shaking hands. varies with predicted demand. been approved in the US, and Sanofi, the Or cover coughs and sneezes with This process means virologists must world’s biggest maker of flu vaccine, has a sleeve, not the hand you are about predict months in advance which viruses bought the company. Medicago of Quebec to touch a doorknob or shake with. will circulate so companies can grow the City in Canada is in the later stages of testing right vaccines. Sometimes they get it wrong, a similar process using plant cells. These Go to work. although this year the vaccine virus was a vaccines could be made in large quantities Presenteeism is not a virtue if you good match, says Ian Barr of the University in weeks, not months – and shortly before are infectious, so work from home for of Melbourne. flu season, making them more likely to the duration – usually about a week. There is still a problem, though. A review match what circulates, without egg-based last year found that the main, injected mutations. Migrate. vaccine, made of killed viruses,protected The real game changer, though, would be Avoiding winter entirely by moving only 33 per cent of recipients against H3N2 – a“universal” vaccine that elicits immunity between northern and southern which is the dominant strain this year. against parts of the flu virus that stay the hemispheres every six months will This fell to 24 per cent in the over-65s. In same over time or between strains. This reduce your exposure – although the Australian winter just past, the vaccine wouldn’t need to change every year, and watch out crossing the tropics, protected only 10 per cent of recipients of could be stockpiled for pandemics. People as flu can crop up sporadically there any age from H3N2, and made no difference have been trying to develop one for years, all year round. in elderly people, although it worked as and there are promising candidates. But well as usual against the other strains. the world spends only $35 million on the Use most flu “remedies”. The same vaccine is being used for the research each year, says Mike Osterholm of Painkillers and decongestants can make northern flu season. the University of Minnesota, hardly enough flu’s symptoms more bearable, but they That seems to be down to mutations to bring a vaccine to market. With millions can’t shorten the misery. Eat sensibly, during the vaccine’s production. In October, sunk into making the existing vaccine, drink fluids (sorry, no alcohol, but yes to researchers at the University of Melbourne companies have little incentive to spend chicken soup) and rest. found that antibodies to the H3N2 strain on new ones. used to make the vaccine worked fine against Governments are funding efforts to fix the H3N2 viruses that actually circulated, that same market failure for other potential but when it was grown in eggs, the viruses plagues such as Ebola. But no one is doing that emerged induced antibodies that it for flu, even though as populations age missed circulating strains a third of the time. ordinary winter flu can only become a bigger Simultaneously, a California team showed killer – even if you don’t count pandemics. >

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 31 The Spanish flu that began in 1918 killed 5 per cent of humanity

to have circulated before 1847. But the Spanish flu was a bird flu that learned to transmit between mammals, and was equipped with fast gene-replicating enzymes that were adapted well to birds, but deadly in mammals. Young adults especially died in droves. Our knowledge of the flu strains circulating in the past century means we are pretty sure almost no one will have encountered relatives of the next bird flu to go pandemic. Virologists sounded the alarm in 1997 when H5N1 bird flu jumped to people, but so far it has not acquired the mutations that would let it spread from human to human, a necessary condition for going pandemic. H7N9, which started infecting people in China in 2013, seems to have the required mutations already: a strain isolated

NATIONAL MUSEUM OF HEALTH AND MEDICINE/SPL recently spread readily, and lethally, among experimental mammals, and was evolving resistance to Tamiflu, an antiviral drug IS THIS THE FLU OR crucial in saving severely ill people in 2009. IS A BIG PANDEMIC If a pandemic strikes, what could we do? JUST A COLD? The world’s single-strain vaccine production capacity has grown from 1.8 to 6.4 billion If you are ill outside the local flu COMING? potential doses since 2006, with World Health season, it is unlikely to be flu, but Organization backing. But most producers colds happen when flu is around The Spanish flu of 1918 remains the worst grow vaccines in eggs, which takes months. and can have similar symptoms. flu pandemic on record, but there have been In 2009, there was no vaccine before the first Flu feels worse and is more several milder ones since (see“New and wave of swine flu was nearly over. Also, likely to feature fever, headache, deadly”,page 30). A pandemic is a global manufacturers have only the egg supplies for muscle pain, a dry cough and a epidemic and, in theory, flu does that every each hemisphere’s yearly production. There sore throat, and perhaps eye and year in the northern and southern winters. may not be enough eggs when everyone joint pain, plus sudden fatigue. But with flu, the term is reserved for when wants pandemic vaccine at once – especially Trouble breathing or other severe an influenza A virus emerges that isn’t just if the emerging flu also kills chickens. symptoms require immediate a slightly mutated version of last winter’s flu, “Atechnological jump is required – either medical attention. but a complete novelty, with surface proteins a universal flu vaccine or a rapid production Children might have vomiting most people have no immunity to. platform”, such as insect cells or plants, says and diarrhoea with flu, although Novel viruses are constantly evolving in Martin Friede of the WHO. Facilities designed adults usually don’t – “stomach flu” the birds, pigs and other animals that also to combat pandemic flu will have to stay is probably something else. carry influenza A, and they can shuffle their fighting fit by making other vaccines when If children become extremely genes with human strains, or just adapt to there is no pandemic – not impossible, irritable, have trouble breathing, mammals directly. Virologists consider flu but commercially unprecedented. Both have a fever with a rash, bluish pandemics inevitable. The World Bank says efforts could use a lot more funding. “The skin or trouble waking, get help. a bad one “could cost $3 trillion… and cause Manhattan project is an overused metaphor, In babies, the warning signs are misery, economic decline, and societal but that is really what we need for flu fewer wet nappies than usual, disruptions on a global scale”. vaccine,” says Osterholm. no tears when crying and trouble Like winter flu, the impact of pandemic Yet the world has flu fatigue. A decade ago, breathing. flu depends on both the virus’s abilities and the emergence of H5N1 caused widespread At any age, if you seem to get people’s immunity. The swine flu that went panic. Now public investment has fallen, better, then get sick again with pandemic in 2009 was already adapted to partly because the relatively mild 2009 a worse cough, see a doctor. Flu causing only relatively mild illness in pandemic wasn’t the disaster we feared. cannot be treated with antibiotics, mammals. It still killed some 300,000 The real problem, say epidemiologists, is but a secondary bacterial lung people. For once, older people were better that flu is so familiar. It can be mild – except infection can be. New diagnostic protected: many people over 52 had when it isn’t. Until we recognise flu for the tests can distinguish colds, flu and immunity thanks to a related winter flu killer it is, we won’t do better at stopping it. Q bacterial lung infections, but are that circulated before 1957. not in general use, which is a major In 1918, many people over 71 were also Debora MacKenzie is a New Scientist factor in antibiotic misuse. protected, since a related winter virus seems correspondent based in Geneva, Switzerland

32 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 NASA

Cosmic couture

The spacesuit hasn’t changed for 40 years. Time for a wardrobe refresh, says Leah Crane

OUG WHEELOCK never really liked These suits are among the most famous pieces out with the iconic white get-up, and in with a his spacesuit. “It may look cool, but it’s of clothing ever worn, but they are well past new generation of spacesuits that can combat D35 years old, smells like a locker room their shelf life. withering cold, intense radiation, piercing and there’s some discolouration on the When Apollo astronauts visited the moon in dust and muscle deterioration – and do it all inside,” he says. Yet that dilapidated old thing the 1960s and 70s, they stayed for a few hours, for longer than ever. was all that stood between him and deadly cold so it didn’t matter if the suits were a little on There’s no mistaking the importance of this nothingness during the NASA astronaut’s six the basic side. Now, though, space agencies pursuit for our space exploration ambitions. spacewalks. “It’s actually kind of scary when and commercial companies are planning to “A spacesuit is actually an anthropomorphic, you think about it,” he says. revisit the moon with more ambitious miniature spacecraft with the complexity of Wheelock is talking about the puffy-looking objectives, like setting up long-term bases. a larger space vehicle,” says engineer Vinita white suit with the reflective visor that NASA With Mars in their sights too, they are working Marwaha Madill at the European Space calls the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). to refresh the space wardrobe. That means it’s Agency (ESA). NASA has already spent at >

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 33 GEMINI G4C (right) In 1965, Ed White became the first American to spacewalk, wearing the G4C suit. He stepped outside the orbiting Gemini spacecraft and used a handheld oxygen-jet gun to propel himself away from the ship and back again several times. On the third time, the gas ran out, so he pulled himself back using the gold tether. Billed as the “bridge to the moon”, NASA’s project Gemini explored some of the techniques astronauts would need in the Apollo missions, like getting out of the spacecraft.

(previous page) The “Mercury Seven” – NASA’s first astronaut class – wore modified pressure suits. NASA

least $200 million on its spacesuit renewal averted catastrophe by quickly helping him Starliner are in preparation. The Orion capsule programme, and now the first designs are back inside the ISS. is due to make its first trip to the ISS in the leaving the dressing room for tests. The EMU isn’t the only garment early 2020s. Both capsules need bespoke suits When NASA first put people in orbit in the approaching expiry. Astronauts must cope to go with them. 1960s, they sported modified pressure suits with a diverse set of environments, during NASA has contracted Boeing to make the from high-altitude jet planes. By 1981, that launch, spacewalks and potentially planetary Starliner capsule and suits, and the firm had evolved into the EMU, which astronauts exploration. Inside a launch capsule on their unveiled the prototype garb in January 2017: still wear when they venture outside the way into space, they need a suit that will a bright blue suit made with lighter materials International Space Station (ISS). and more flexible joints than previous These suits come in sections, and only a “The ‘space hoodie’ design offerings. It has a soft helmet that is attached few handfuls of each section were ever made. to the suit like a hood; astronauts pull it over Take the life-support backpacks, the most is far less clunky than the their heads and zip it down in an emergency. expensive and complicated part: only This “space hoodie” design is far less clunky 11 of 18 originals are still in working order. old fish-bowl helmets ” than the traditional fish-bowl helmets. If we were to build new EMUs today, NASA “In the last 60 years, there’s been no suit estimates they would cost perhaps $250 pressurise quickly if the life-support systems lighter than this one,” says Kavya Manyapu, million apiece, partly because the technology fail. It must also fit in the capsule’s cramped a Boeing engineer. is so outdated that it is hard to reproduce. seats and plug into its life support systems. That lightness isn’t just for comfort. Every Meanwhile, the need to do something about The only vehicle shuttling people to the space gram of material on a rocket adds to the cost of our ageing space apparel has become ever station at the moment is the Russian Soyuz, fuel, so for private space firms such as SpaceX, more apparent. In 2013, astronaut Luca so astronauts and cosmonauts alike wear the cutting down on weight could provide a Parmitano was on a spacewalk when water matching Russian Sokol (or“Falcon”) suit commercial advantage. The company is began leaking into his helmet and floated into during launch and re-entry. developing its own suit for its reusable Crew his nose and mouth, raising fears he might That suit is even older than the EMU, but Dragon capsule, which is scheduled to start drown. Fellow astronaut Christopher Cassidy now new capsules such as NASA’s Orion and carrying people to the ISS in August. We know

34 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 APOLLO AL7 (centre) As Apollo 17 astronaut Harrison Schmitt gathered moon rock in December 1972, he was wearing the iconic AL7 suit. Composed of multiple layers, with water cooling tubes sewn in, the suit was difficult to bend down in, and so astronauts used poles to pick up samples.

EXTRAVEHICULAR MOBILITY UNIT (left) First worn in 1981, the EMU is still the suit of choice for spacewalks, for example if astronauts need to pop outside the International Space Station. Here astronaut Kathryn Thornton is servicing the Hubble Space Telescope.

little about the suit yet, but snaps posted They might also build a moon base as a way EMU suits, she says. The Z-2 shoulder joints online by the firm’s founder Elon Musk station and testing ground for missions to and lower body have a broader range of show a sleek black and white design. worlds further afield. motion than previous suits, with a waist that A slinky number is fair enough for That’s something for which the iconic can turn and flex so that astronauts can look a transport capsule, but it wouldn’t be Apollo moonwalk suits won’t cut the mustard. around and walk more easily. It is also more sufficiently robust for spacewalks. For US “The spacesuit technology developed during modular than previous versions, with astronauts, the only option there remains the mid-20th century was originally designed different arm and leg lengths so the suit can the EMU. For Russian cosmonauts, there’s the for short-duration missions to the moon,” be personalised. It has already performed Orlan suit, which had its first outing in 1977. says Marwhala Madill. The suits were well in tests in NASA’s Neutral Buoyancy NASA has been working on replacements for uncomfortable and tough to manoeuvre in. Laboratory in Houston, Texas. This contains the EMU since at least 2007 – and it’s looking The Apollo astronauts couldn’t bend down to a giant pool used to simulate microgravity to future-proof its vision. Its new suits aren’t pick up rocks; they had to use a pole. where astronauts can work with a full-size just designed for spacewalks, but for walking The EMU evolved from those suits and isn’t mock-up of the ISS. and spending significant time on a lot better. It has a limited field of view and Even so, Ross admits that fundamental extraterrestrial surfaces. no neck joint, which means astronauts must advances in materials science are needed In the first instance that means the lunar turn their entire bodies if they need to look at before spacesuits can actually be described as surface. Just last month, US President Donald anything that isn’t in front of them. “Ninety comfortable. For her and her fellow spacesuit Trump signed a directive instructing NASA to per cent of the battle with an EMU suit is designers, the stickier problem is moon dust. focus its efforts on human space exploration, getting into the correct body position to get On Earth, tiny meteors burn up in the particularly the moon. The Apollo astronauts at whatever it is you’re trying to repair,” atmosphere, but on the airless moon, space took just 18 moonwalks, exploring six small says Wheelock. debris can hit the surface at 160,000 areas. Future explorers would be aiming to go Amy Ross designs NASA’s new spacesuits, kilometres per hour, melting and smashing further afield, hunting for reservoirs of water and since 2013 that has included prototype rocks and sticking the shards together in under the moon’s surface and clues about the “extra-vehicular” suits called the Z-1 and Z-2. jagged dust particles. This dust is not only birth of the solar system hidden in the rock. These are heaps better than the Apollo and nastily abrasive, but has a static electric >

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 35 BOEING MARKOWITZ/NASA ROBERT AND STAFFORD BILL

charge, and so sticks everywhere. It was a MAKING MOON DUST nightmare for the Apollo astronauts: it stuck to their helmets, gummed up their suit There’s no plentiful supply of moon form it into bricks. joints, and grated through layers of spacesuit dust on Earth, so spacesuit developers But not all moon dust is equal; in material. When they tracked it into the lunar need artificial moon dust. NASA began the lunar highlands it contains lots module they breathed it in and contracted trying to make it in the early 1990s. Its of aluminium, and near the poles “space hay fever”. first batch, known as JSC-1, was made there is a small amount of water ice. A lunar dust buster that would suck the stuff by pulverising and milling volcanic ash So, more recently another two strains up has long been tossed around as a solution. into a powder, adding larger pebbles of simulated moon dust known as The idea of one prototype called SPARCLE, from the ash to get a mix of different NU-LHT-1D and CLDS-i have been developed in 2009, was to spray the dust with sized particles. developed. Just last July, Chinese electrons to render it negatively charged, It may not sound like much, scientists unveiled a third, which they then suck it into a positively charged nozzle. but each tonne cost $1000 to make. say can mimic the fine dust kicked into SPARCLE looks to have been mothballed Aside from using it to test spacesuits, swirling storms by the moon’s electric because the researchers involved either the agency showed that you could field at sunrise – an achievement not moved on or retired, but a similar device is extract oxygen from the dust and to be sneezed at. still under development. This electrodynamic dust shield casts an electric field over solar panels, electronics and potentially suits, to layer. They are trying to figure out which what it sounds like: swathes of fabric are prevent dust from accumulating on them. fabrics will be able to withstand the grating tossed around with rocks and moon dust NASA is planning to start testing it on the ISS. moon dust and how to attach those fabrics to see how badly the fabric degrades. Real It would still be prudent to make suits that to the rest of the suit to minimise leaks. moon dust is rather too precious for this are tough, though, so Ross and her team are Once the fabrics are chosen, Ross’s team purpose – the Apollo astronauts brought working on an Environmental Protection do standard stretching tests before the back only about 380 kilograms of the stuff – Garment that will form the Z-2 suit’s outer crucial“rock tumbler test”. This is exactly so the first step for Ross is to get her hands

36 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 PROTOTYPE BOEING BLUE EXPLORATION (far left) This blue suit will be SUIT worn by people on board the (left) Alongside the Z-1, Starliner capsule being built which could be used on by Boeing, which should carry the International Space astronauts to space in the Station as soon as 2020, 2020s. It is the lightest NASA is working on a more spacesuit ever made, the firm speculative prototype. claims, with a flexible helmet One of the most innovative that pulls up like a hoodie and features is the torso, which zips in place. It is not designed is made of fabric supported for spacewalks — just as a by metal rods. That means backup in case life support it’s easy to resize, compared systems fail. with the solid torso of previous suits, which Z SERIES smaller astronauts can (left) NASA is working on new find hard to move. multipurpose spacesuits the Z-1 and Z-2 (pictured). Both are designed to be worn on spacewalks, as well as for exploring the moon and maybe Mars. They are more flexible than previous suits and astronauts can climb into them through a hatch in the back, which means there’s no need to use an airlock to

enter and exit spacecraft. STAFFORD/NASA BILL

on some ersatz dust (see“Making moon to climb in and out fairly easily, but a couple combined with oxygen and water vapour, dust”,above). had difficulty working their feet past the which spacesuits tend to be full of – making Some people are suggesting more radical knee joint. something you really do not want to inhale. anti-dust measures in next-generation Wheelock says the Z-2 suit may be ready And on Mars, there is even less chance than spacesuit design. For the most part, for the ISS by 2020, but NASA also has another there is on the moon of resupply in the event astronauts exit rovers or landers using spacesuit research project up its sleeve. The of an accident. That’s why it is good news that a mechanism that first shuts them in a Prototype Exploration Suit (PXS) is primarily at least some parts of the PXS can be 3D chamber, then depressurises and opens its printed. At the moment, this functionality is other end to space: an airlock. But that way, “For spacewalks, a suit to make suits adaptable to different bodies, the spacesuit has to be traipsed through but it could also mean that Mars explorers the airlock. with a more flexible could print their own replacement suit parts. Instead, why not attach the spacesuit That is far from a done deal, but our attire directly to the side of the craft and let the torso would be a boon” for at least one part of any future Mars mission astronaut climb in through a hatch in the does look sorted. The ESA has developed a back? That would stop the dust ever coming billed as a suit for spacewalks, where its more “skinsuit”made from elastic material that inside. This“suitport”idea was patented by flexible torso would be a boon, but it is also replicates gravity by putting just the right NASA in 1989, and a team from the agency’s a testbed for more speculative technology – amount of pressure on the body. This should Langley Research Center proposed installing some of which might be useful on Mars. counteract the muscle wastage and bone suitports in future rovers in 1995. Soon There, everything will be harder. The dust is problems that come from a long journey afterwards, a team at another NASA lab tried less spiky than on the moon, but Martian dust in microgravity. Best of all, these suits are it out on Earth, installing such a suitport in a grains get more highly electrostatically charged painstakingly fitted to each astronaut, which personnel carrier used to clean up hazardous as they rub together in the thin, dry air, to the means no rubbing up against other people’s materials. And in 2012, NASA built a prototype extent that they might disrupt electronics if sweat stains. Doug Wheelock will be pleased. Q Z-1 suit with matching suitport and tested it brought back into a spacecraft. The dust can in a vacuum chamber. Most people managed also become acidic and corrosive when Leah Crane is a reporter and editor for New Scientist

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 37 A freakish contagion looked set to wipe out Tasmania’s iconic marsupial, but the devil is fighting back, finds Erica Tennenhouse

38 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 WO decades ago, at the north-eastern system’s T-cells to identify and attack foreign Woods is working on this. When his team tip of Tasmania, a single cell near the cells, including cancerous ones. But DFTD is discovered that a handful of devils can survive Twhiskers of a Tasmanian devil mutated believed to have originated in the nervous DFTD, he became convinced that the others and turned cancerous. That animal was bitten system, where cells often hide their MHC simply needed an immune boost. For the past in the face by another devil, which was then labels to prevent immune attacks that few years, he has been testing immunotherapies bitten by another, and the cancer has been might damage the brain.“Because the by inoculating captive devils before their spreading ever since. It has taken a once- cancer started off in these cells, it already release. As of August 2017, three of the 85 common species to the brink of extinction. had those immune escape mechanisms in vaccinated and released animals had To date, the contagious cancer known place,”says immunologist Gregory Woods developed tumours. It is a small percentage, as devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) has at the University of Tasmania.“Then it just but suggests that the formulation needs annihilated 85 per cent of the population. amplified those mechanisms by turning off tweaking. There may be fewer than 20,000 Tasmanian MHC completely.” Woods was recently tinkering with the devils left in the wild. Worse still, the species Intriguingly, however, the devils seem to vaccine when he discovered something quite has been hit by another deadly disease. Yet be evolving defences against DFTD. Recently, remarkable. He grew tumour cells in a liquid these animals are living up to their feisty a comparison of tissue samples from devils spiked with cytokines, which are molecules reputation. With a combination of remarkably that died before the cancer emerged and that turn on a cell’s MHC labels. Then he rapid evolution and some groundbreaking others living after the disease had taken hold injected the cells into afflicted devils. Over work by conservationists, they seem revealed that two distinct stretches of DNA time, their tumours began to shrink and, in determined to survive. have mutated faster than the rest of their some cases, disappeared completely. “It’s a bit Tasmanian devils once roamed widely genome. Most genes in these regions have odd, treating cancer with cancer,” says Woods. across Australia. But when dingoes were Still, he can’t argue with the striking results. introduced to the mainland at least 4000 “It is as though the devils You might think that means things are years ago, those living there were probably looking up for the devils. However, a second hunted to oblivion, along with their relatives, have been struck by contagious cancer has struck. This slowly Tasmanian tigers. Consequently, Tasmania is spreading strain has caused curiosity and now the sole residence of the world’s largest lightning twice” concern since its discovery in 2015. Given living meat-eating marsupial. The devils that only two other contagious cancers have have attained a sort of celebrity status there, cancer-fighting or immune-boosting ever been seen – one in dogs, the other in with their likeness gracing coins, sports functions.“That is what you would see if there shellfish – it is as though the devils have been jerseys and even beer labels. was selection for resistance,”says Hamish struck by lightning twice. The second strain An adult devil is about the size of an obese McCallum, a wildlife disease ecologist at may indicate that they are highly susceptible domestic cat, but like other marsupials, they Griffith University in Queensland. to these diseases. Then again, if they have a are tiny at birth – about the size of a grain The devils may be gaining resistance, history of encountering and overcoming of rice. As they grow, so do their appetites. but David Pemberton, who manages the contagious cancer, that’s an encouraging sign. A full-sized devil can consume 15 per cent of government-run Save the Tasmanian Devil How quickly this second cancer will burn its body weight in a single day. Luckily, they Program, isn’t prepared to simply hope for the through the population is still unknown. are unfussy eaters. They scavenge and hunt, best. As the number of devils drops, so does “We just don’t know what it is going to do,” happily devouring any creature including their genetic diversity, he says, meaning fewer says Woods. “We don’t understand much maggots, tadpoles, frogs, wombats, wallabies opportunities for natural selection to find about it at all.” However, according to the and possums. Their unusually large heads ways to resist the cancer. Low numbers also latest estimates, the original strain is finally provide extra space, not for bigger brains, but increase the risk from other threats that could beginning to wane. What’s more, many of for the massive jaw muscles that enable them lead to extinction, including inbreeding and the devil populations predicted to be extinct to crack and crush bones. When they feast on road deaths. So Pemberton is on a mission by now haven’t succumbed. a carcass, nothing goes to waste. to bring the devils’numbers up, and fast. To McCallum expects that one or both Devils are a combative bunch, frequently that end, he and his colleagues have started cancer strains will persist at some level for biting each other’s faces and jaw-wrestling to dipping into an insurance population – about the foreseeable future, suppressing devil secure a mate or defend a meal. It is during 700 disease-free devils held in captivity across numbers. That means Tasmania’s ecosystems these fights that cancer cells get dislodged Australia – and transferring some of them to will continue to suffer. Devils are the top from one animal and infect another. Then, Tasmania’s wilderness. predator and with so few of them around, as the cancer proliferates, bulging black and But the programme is controversial. feral cats have flourished, devouring the red lumps begin to bloom on their cheeks McCallum worries that these captive-born island’s small native animals such as bilbies and jaws, over their eyes and in their mouths. devils could slow down or even reverse the and bandicoots. Still, all the signs suggest that These growths can hinder feeding so severely evolution of resistance.“It’s a bit like if you Tasmanian devils will ultimately survive. In that afflicted animals starve to death. had a herd of pedigree dairy cows,”he says. fact, McCallum believes they are already out Transmissible cancers are exceedingly “You wouldn’t just throw in a random bull of the woods: “It’s fairly clear now that what rare. Cells normally have proteins on their from somewhere.”At the very least, he thinks we thought was a real possibility of extinction surfaces known as the major histocompatibility susceptible devils should be released into is no longer likely to happen.” ■ complex (MHC), which are like labels saying disease-prone regions only once an effective

BEN185/GETTY “I belong here”. These allow the immune vaccine against DFTD has been developed. Erica Tennenhouse is a writer based in Toronto

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 39 JOAN BARDELETTI/PEEK/ROLEXJOAN Eye phone to the rescue

Driven by a keen sense of injustice, Andrew Bastawrous is leading a technological shake-up to give millions of people back their sight, as Douglas Heaven discovers

AKE a wild guess at how many people in you risk your independence and your dignity.” eyes tested, the optician was shocked that the world are seriously visually impaired So he is pioneering a radical technological Bastawrous had got by for so long without Tor blind. Wrong, higher. A quarter of a approach to fixing the world’s eyesight. glasses.“I could only see 30 centimetres in billion. And that’s not even the shocking part. Bastawrous was 12 when he found out he front of me,” he says. More than half could see clearly with a could barely see. He was socially awkward, Glasses turned his life around, yet even as treatment so simple and cheap that in the failing at school and terrible at ball games. a child he was acutely aware of how lucky he West we don’t even think about it – glasses. “The football used to hit me in the face was: Bastawrous grew up in the UK, but his The technical problems of fixing failing before I could head it,” he says. As kids do, family would visit poor parts of Egypt, where vision are largely solved, yet to our collective he assumed it was the same for everyone, his parents were from. “Nobody there wore shame it remains one of the most debilitating and coped. Instead of copying what his teacher glasses, no other kids, but I knew some of health problems in the developing world. But was writing on the board, he would look at them needed them,” he says. “It felt incredibly not if Andrew Bastawrous can help it. “If you what the child next to him was writing. unfair. At 16, I decided I wasn’t going to feel ask people if they’d rather give up their shoes, He was good at running though.“I used to guilty about it any more.” He resolved there their wallet or their glasses, most would give run in second place behind someone and and then to become an eye surgeon. up their shoes or wallet first,” the eye surgeon- try to overtake at the very end,” he says. Despite still being driven by a burning sense turned-CEO tells me. “You lose your vision, When his mother finally insisted he got his of injustice, his vibe when we meet is more

40 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 PEOPLE

doctor than man on a mission. That makes set up before even offering anyone an eye test. sense, given he spent a few years as an “Some ask why we’re replacing pieces of card ophthalmologist working for the UK’s with an expensive smartphone just for a National Health Service. He is calm, kind vision test,”says Bastawrous.“But it’s not just and excellent at getting his message across. about the test.” Globally, about 220 million people have In the case of schoolkids, when the app vision that is moderately to severely impaired, identifies someone with a vision problem, and 36 million are blind. The good news it can automatically send messages to their is that more than three-quarters of all teacher or family members, set up a referral visual impairment is avoidable, typically by at the nearest clinic and so on. This integrated treating conditions such as nearsightedness approach works. In one screening project or operating on cataracts. This “good news”, for 49 schools in Botswana, 96 per cent of and the people it applies to, is what keeps the children found to have a vision problem Bastawrous awake at night. turned up for treatment. Traditional screening With 90 per cent of the global problem programmes often get as little as 15 per cent, in poorer nations, the issue comes down to says Bastawrous. resources and logistics – a fact Bastawrous ran “It’s a complete privilege to give someone into in rural Kenya in 2012 when investigating back their sight,”he says. And it usually the prevalence of blindness in 100 local changes the life of more than one person. populations. He and his wife packed up their JOAN BARDELETTI He tells me about Mama Philip in rural Kenya, house, sold their car and moved with their who had been blinded by cataracts for 25 years. 1-year-old son to a small town 5 hours’ drive PROFILE Her son lived in the hut next door and she from Nairobi. They had limited electricity and Andrew Bastawrous is co-founder and CEO of would shout to him when she needed help, running water. “It was scary,” he says. “It was Peek Vision, based in London, and an assistant which was often.“It took a lot of persuading an adventure, in hindsight, but probably the professor in international eye health at the London to convince her that her vision could even be most difficult thing we’ve done.” School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine restored,”says Bastawrous. On the way home For 18 months, every time Bastawrous after surgery, Mama Philip started recognising and his 15-strong team set up their“mobile” things she knew, but was confused by the eye clinic in yet another new location, they In Kenya, for example, 25 teachers, each man she found standing outside her hut. had to lug bulky, fragile hospital equipment armed with a smartphone, were able to screen She hadn’t seen her son since he was a boy. cross-country.“It was like taking your TV and 21,000 children in nine days. Now 12 of them “Why have you got so old?”she said. the entire contents of your kitchen and setting are setting off to screen 300,000 children Persuading individuals to fix their eyes is it up over and over again,”he says.“Many across the region. satisfying, but the goal is to get governments villages had no roads. Even when there was Bastawrous’s team has also developed a on board.“The economic argument is a strong a road, our vehicles often got stuck and we’d clip-on lens that turns a smartphone camera one,”says Bastawrous. Fixing vision brings have to walk for hours carrying heavy kit.” into an ophthalmoscope that captures cascading benefits: more children go to school Hillary Rono, an ophthalmologist who and do better once they are there, and more collaborates with Bastawrous and who runs “We don’t even have enough adults can work rather than rely on family or an eye unit in Kitale, Kenya, serving 1.5 million doctors, and now you also state aid. Peek Vision is already working in people, sums up another problem. There’s a big Kenya and India, and will be expanding into shortage of personnel, he says, and training want ophthalmologists?” Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Pakistan and Indonesia costly eye specialists takes four years.“We don’t this year, but Botswana is the first government even have enough doctors in this country hospital-grade images of the back of the eye to agree to fund Peek’s projects within its and now you also want ophthalmologists? (see main photo). It can reveal conditions borders. Based on an economic analysis of That’s probably a pipe dream.” such as glaucoma, cataracts and age-related World Bank data, Bastawrous estimates that All this convinced Bastawrous that macular degeneration, though it has yet to be by investing $8.5 million to screen and treat something radical was needed. So he widely deployed. every child in the country, Botswana could started exploring ways to replace his clinic These technologies transform mobile eye avert $1.3 billion of lost productivity. with a single, portable device: a smartphone. clinics from a large team, a truckload of fragile That’s a pretty good start, but Bastawrous He co-developed an app-based visual acuity equipment and an expensive eye specialist has his sights set sky high. In April, 52 nations test that gathers as much information as the into a smartphone in the hands of a local will convene at the Commonwealth Heads of classic backlit letter-chart test, using similar healthcare worker or teacher. Government Meeting in London, and he is principles. He field-tested the app, called Peek But technology alone won’t help.“We don’t lobbying hard. “If vision is on the agenda, Acuity, in Kenya. The crucial difference is that invite people to the restaurant unless we know it could change the lives of millions, or even virtually anyone can administer the test after there’s food,” says Bastawrous. A doctor still billions, of people,” he says. Will that ease his just a few minutes of training. Bastawrous also needs to diagnose the problem, treatment burning sense of injustice? “I feel we’re at a co-founded a charitable company called Peek must be available – from glasses to cataract tipping point now where this enormous Vision, based in London, to develop and apply surgery – and the outcome assessed. Peek problem will become a historical thing. the technology more widely. Vision makes sure that the whole pipeline is That’s when I’ll sleep easy.” Q

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 41 CULTURE

The ideas driving 2018

There are many ways to choose the books that will shape a year: by the “big” names on whose reputations much still stands, by emerging trends, by beguiling titles or just by gut feeling. This year, Liz Else and Simon Ings based their choices on themes, ranging from human evolution to genetics

How we think Humans evolving To get your bearings and a feel Heyes, our impressive cognitive Think human evolution, think for neuroscience, try two books equipment is shaped by cultural toothache. Our crooked, crowded by Yale University Press. First rather than genetic evolution. teeth are a dismal evolutionary is Think Tank by David Linden At birth, she argues, babies are consequence of our need for at Johns Hopkins University only subtly different from cooked food. Craniofacial in Maryland. He asked newborn chimps. But expose specialist Sandra Kahn and 40 researchers, including Miguel babies to the deep culture of biologist Paul Ehrlich get to Nicolelis at the Walk Again Project human environment and the root of the matter in Jaws: and Cynthia Moss at the Amboseli amazing effects occur. The story of a hidden epidemic Trust for Elephants, which idea Ironically, and like no other (Stanford University Press). about brain function they would creature (probably), these effects Meanwhile, Sang-hee Lee’s most like to explain to the world. let us think about thinking. How Close Encounters with Humankind The ideas and scope range from (W. W. Norton) offers additional love and sex to personality and “Surface is everything: we vistas on our unique plight, perception – and how individual are characters of our own including how comparisons of experiences radically change the creation, creating and skull and pelvic fossils chart our make-up of the brain. improvising our behaviour” development as a social species. What all this means is explored In The Great Apes: A short in Minds Make Societies by else would we have come up with history (Yale University Press), Pascal Boyer, which is fuelled by the novel theories about causality Chris Herzfeld, an artist and his professorships in collective and the brain in The Book of historian specialising in and individual memory, and in Why by Judea Pearl and primatology, offers illustrated anthropology and psychology. Dana Mackenzie (Basic Books), insights about our perceptions In it, he argues there is no good which may have implications for of apes, as well as of the boundary reason why human societies artificial intelligence? Or worked between“human”and“ape”. “should not be described and out why we defend what we What boundary, you might nature have to be constant, and explained with the same believe even when it is wrong, well ask. We have recently this means the universe cannot precision and success as the as James Alcock explains in discovered that our evolutionary have generated them. Three new rest of nature”.The basis is Belief (Prometheus Books)? cousins, the chimpanzees, books wriggle around this puzzle. cultural transmission, drawing Perhaps the ultimate takedown plot coups, wage territorial wars, In Conjuring the Universe on human communication, of such overreaching tendencies pass on traditions and scheme (Oxford University Press), the nature of memory in our is The Mind Is Flat by Nick Chater for resources. In The New Peter Atkins considers the brains and the motivation (Allen Lane). This is a total assault Chimpanzee (Harvard University minimum effort needed to underpinning group formation on all lingering psychiatric and Press), Craig Stanford lets apes equip the universe with laws, and cooperation. psychoanalytic notions of mental guide our idea of what it means and explains how they can spring The role of culture in shaping depths to be plumbed. For Chater, to be human. from very little – or even nothing. human minds and societies is also surface is everything: we are all Roy Gould goes further: at the heart of Cognitive Gadgets characters of our own creation, Universal truths Universe in Creation (Harvard by Cecilia Heyes (Harvard busily creating and improvising University Press) revives the University Press). The title only our behaviour based on Cosmology is an overlong anthropic principle to explain sounds like those 1990s books experience. Light the touchpaper chicken-and-egg joke. For our why the universe seems to be about hard-wired instincts: for and stand well back... theories to work, the laws of becoming more ordered, rather

42 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 For more books and arts coverage, visit newscientist.com/culture

and DNA research is the history It’s shaping up for of the Celts. It will be interesting to see what this does for Barry an eventful year Cunliffe’s seminal The Ancient Celts, which has a reworked new ARE we headed towards a bright edition (Oxford University Press). tomorrow or hurtling towards A decent origins story also eternal perdition? The festivals and needs input from other exhibitions so far announced for disciplines. Jack Hartnell’s 2018 cannot make up their minds. Medieval Bodies (Profile Books) Will the future be kind? This is a novel take on the way is the question looming over medieval people explored and Beveridge 2.0, a festival at the experienced their physical beings. London School of Economics that Art, cultural and social history will consider what is in store for come together with painful William Beveridge’s 75-year-old accounts of medieval medicine. vision of the welfare state (19 to And then there is Mary Beard’s 24 February). There is fascinating How Do We Look (Profile Books), scientific insight to be had from which asks why most cultures talks examining the evolution have invested heavily in images and likely future of work, ageing of the body – and why a 2500-year- and altruism. old style of representation still Those of a more visionary determines how we look at the bent should head to Trondheim human form today. in Norway between 8 March and 6 May. Here the art and technology festival meta.morf will consider By selection the “beautiful accident” that is For a century or so, people have the human species, “seated in wrestled over whether genes economy class, sipping on Piña alone transmitted biological Coladas, listening to the Beach information across generations Boys while blissfully sailing into and provide the raw material for the ultimate sunset”. natural selection. Books like Opening on 21 April is the Extended Heredity by Russell Fashioned from Nature exhibition Bonduriansky and Troy Day at London’s Victoria and Albert (Princeton University Press) Museum. This promises show how far the mainstream 300 beautiful, intriguing and has shifted to include epigenetic unsettling objects that highlight forces alongside genes as drivers fashion’s dependence on the of who and what we are. natural world.

IMAGE SOURCE/GETTY Other parts of the genetics Happily, there is more to the future than resource depletion, Origins of everything story are fascinating but scary. than the other way around. Genetics in the Madhouse by and three weeks later, on 12 May, The fact we are here to observe David Reich puts a determined Theodore M. Porter (Princeton the V&A launches The Future our universe is significant in stamp on present and past in his University Press) uses data Starts Here, which will explore another way, too, as Californian book Who We Are and How We Got collection in psychiatric hospitals the power of design in shaping physicist A. Zee reveals. Though Here (Oxford University Press). to show the stakes when research the world of tomorrow. On Gravity (Princeton University Whole genome mapping hasn’t straddles subjectivity and science. Finally, two future-facing Press) begins its tour of Einstein’s just revolutionised our world, Firmly back in the objective stalwarts return to London in 2018. general theory of relativity with it has helped us rethink our past, camp is First in Fly by Stephanie FutureFest, a two-day celebration the discovery of gravitational revealing waves of migrations, Elizabeth Mohr (Harvard of impending possibilities, returns waves, and lands the reader with or without Neanderthal or University Press). This run to Tobacco Dock on 6 and 7 July, deep in the mysteries of dark Denisovan genetic components. through of research using the fly while the London Design Biennale matter and energy, Zee never Naturally, all of this creates Drosophila shows why the tiny (4 to 23 September) explores how forgets that, in the end, humans societal sensitivities, as with insect has been of such value to design affects every aspect of our perceive the universe with the racial identity or deep divides gene research. A very short life, emotional lives. only instruments they can ever between peoples. prolific reproduction and easy-to- Will the future be kind? truly rely on (rightly or wrongly): Among the many mysteries spot mutant phenotypes are the This may be the year we find out. their senses. that could be solved by genetics secrets of its success. ■

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 43 CULTURE

You’ve just crossed over…

A 1950s TV show takes to the stage – and it really works, finds Stewart Pringle

retread them would be pointless. episode, or the visitor who haunts Performances are also The Twilight Zone by Anne In their place come tales like her recent Antlia Pneumatica, modelled on the slight all- Washburn, Almeida Theatre, “Nightmare as a child”,the story but here it is like the ghost of an American stiffness of the 50s London, to 27 January of an impossible little girl with a entire era, returned to warn a new series, which gives the entire THE last time London saw a play disturbing premonition,“And A-bomb-happy age of the deadly production a distinctly unreal by award-winning US writer when the sky was opened”,where perils of nuclear escalation. and dream-like quality. Much Anne Washburn it was Mr Burns – three hero astronauts who survive Where the message may be less effective are some of director a journey into a post-apocalyptic a deadly crash simply wink out of bleak, however, the tone is often Richard Jones’s other creative future, where the remnants of existence one by one. Best of all is buoyant, gently mocking the choices, with a set by Paul human civilisation clung to half- “The shelter”,which Washburn has conventions of the original series. Steinberg that feels fake in all remembered fragments of expanded from its simple premise There are some brilliant segments the wrong ways, and bizarrely The Simpsons. Fitting, then, that into a culture war of simmering flat lighting by Mimi Jordan she should return to skewer the racial and class tension. “The narrative is a dire Sherin. Fortunately, the sound by strange times we live in through Collaged together, the stories warning on the slippage of Christopher Shutt is an absolute the hallucinatory lens of The reflect on one another, as motifs cultural memory and rise standout, as weird voices echo Twilight Zone. and images return in new and of fake news and paranoia” and emerge from every corner Rod Serling’s genre-defying peculiar shapes. It should of the auditorium. anthology series was first be a tumult, a nonsense, but that rib-poke Serling’s starched Minor flaws aside, this is a broadcast in 1959, in an America somehow the power of Serling’s on-camera narration, and a remarkable production. A journey haunted by the cold war, a world storytelling is never diminished: recurring visual gag with into the imagination that’s at of reds beneath the bed where each story is as crisp as when it cigarettes magically produced once a celebration of humanity’s the threat of strange objects in was first broadcast. through sleight of hand. This imaginative powers, and a the night sky wasn’t confined to It is also a surprisingly effective is a neat reminder of both the portent of doom for a world alien visitors. match for Washburn’s own ubiquity of fags on the show itself, increasingly incapable of Here, Washburn selects eight dramatic universe. She returns and the fact that nothing is quite separating fact from fiction. Q out of the 150-plus episodes in the to ghosts again and again in her what it seems, and memory and original series, and weaves them work, whether it is the phantom reality are constantly vulnerable Stewart Pringle is a playwright, into a narrative that is part larky of a long-lost “Sideshow Bob” to fracture. critic and theatre producer pastiche, and part dire warning about the slippage of cultural memory, the rise of fake news and global paranoia. Rather than selecting a grab bag of greatest hits, the episodes Washburn has chosen are bound by unsettling trends that ran, almost unnoticeably, through the series. People go missing, are mistaken for enemies, turn on one another and forget their own identity. There are no gremlins on the wings of aeroplanes (as in the famous “Nightmare at 20,000 feet” episode), no cookbook on how “To serve man”, stories which have been lampooned so often, including in The Simpsons,thatto

On stage, each story is as crisp

as when it was first broadcast MARC BRENNER

44 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018

LETTERS [email protected] @newscientist newscientist

EDITOR’S PICK Fresh thinking needed gravitational constant, varied on dark matter mystery across time or space, for example? Dial M for morality in a driverless car While these might be From Eddy Richards, unpleasant alternatives, at least To change this default, the driver Allanton, Scottish Borders, UK we wouldn’t have to invoke would need to accept limitations on Gilead Amit describes various energy and matter that we can’t the performance of the vehicle, with explanations to account for detect to make our models work. these chosen to reduce the likelihood the expansion of the universe, that it would be involved in a crash. and concludes with the quote From David Myers, So it might be directed to travel more that“none of it feels right” Commugny, Vaud, Switzerland slowly, or enter intersections more (9 December 2017, p 28). While any attempt to shed some cautiously, for example, or take other I would go further: these light on the origins of dark measures to avoid situations in which explanations remind me of matter and dark energy is to be a crash might be more likely or more nothing so much as phlogiston welcomed, I would point out that consequential for others. or the luminiferous ether – other the article by Gilead Amit failed Going progressively further toward arbitrary inventions with no to mention the recent paper by the “full egoist” end of the scale would physical basis conjured up to André Maeder of Geneva From Ed Hillsman, require greater limitations on the explain observations that Observatory, Switzerland, which Albuquerque, New Mexico, US vehicle. This would introduce some contradicted existing suggests that both of these may While reading Abigail Beall’s analysis measure of responsibility for avoiding assumptions. be due to the scale invariance of of the ethics of self-driving cars, it the need to sacrifice someone else. I wonder if there might be empty space (The Astrophysical occurred to me that one way to help I don’t think it would greatly increase alternative explanations that Journal, doi.org/cg6c). would be to set the default mode to the complexity of the underlying code, re-examine the assumptions This proposal avoids both “full altruist”, which would involve but it might increase the complexity of being made. What if one or the requirement for a zoo of sacrificing the occupants to prevent the decision-making when choosing more fundamental constants, missing particles as well as an a collision (21 October 2017, p 11). the setting. such as the speed of light or the implausible value of the Einstein

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52 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 “Told you they were useful for something” Michael Rozdoba on the news that sperm have been weaponised in the fight against cervical cancer (23/30 December 2017, p 17) cosmological constant 120 orders result of other mental traits exclusively as low-status (9 December 2017, p 5). of magnitude larger than the discussed in your article, such non-competitors who trigger I don’t share this optimism. observed one. as tribalism and stereotyping. feelings of pity. When I graduated in the Without the assumption that However, those of us with late 1960s, nobody was an The pervasive problems my tribe is different to the ones mobility disabilities will be aware “environmentalist” – the concept of groupthink other people belong to, believing that the sight of someone with a didn’t then exist. However, that God loves me would make disability using reserved disabled my career has led me down From Elizabeth Belben, me more likely to think that God seating, a“blue badge”for parking a path that identified me as an Radstock, Somerset, UK probably loves everyone else and in special bays or a Motability environmental scientist. In this In your article on counterfactual wants me to love them as well. rental car all too often provokes role, I have worked in many beliefs, you don’t discuss the As Stephen Jay Gould envy, or worse, rather than pity. countries, for client, consultant evidence that there is no God, concluded, the fact that some Perhaps the research needs to and contractor, to champion but simply point out that many scientists believe in God, some consider national or cultural the environmental cause. people have committed atrocities don’t and some believe we differences, or indeed history. Sadly, the overall impact in the name of religion cannot know suggests that I fear at this time of year, the ghost that I have had has been pitiful, (16 December 2017, p 28). science and religion may be of Tiny Tim haunts the pages of a sentiment shared by my peers. This doesn’t disprove God’s non-overlapping magisteria. New Scientist. We haven’t been effective, despite existence, any more than a strong desire to protect our atrocities committed in the name From David Fulford-Brown, Environmental fighters planet. Simply put, the power of socialism disprove left-wing Cardiff, UK areontheropes brokers, developers, politicians economics. As violent and Your feature on stereotypes and investors have done little intolerant acts can be committed seems to have fallen victim to From Marc Smith-Evans, more than pay lip service to the by people with left-wing or right- the same phenomenon. I notice Bagabag, Philippines environmental cause. wing views, and by those who that in the diagram on the four Your recent leader suggests that The adage that every victory either do or do not believe in God, categories stereotyping can take, we should be optimistic about is temporary and every defeat they are more likely to be the those with disabilities are classed the future of the biosphere is permanent summarises the >

6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 53 LETTERS [email protected] @newscientist newscientist

view of those who care about our Alex Bellos’s book on Japan’s governmental organisations Signalling other planets planet. In more than 40 years, brain-teaser industry and the such as NATO and the United is a dangerous gamble I have seen many defeats and very enigmatologists who power it Nations will always be key to few victories. The health of the (2 December 2017, p 46). controlling cyberweapons. From Ben Haller, biosphere isn’t going to get better, Though I have been spared However, as these directly Ithaca, New York, US only the rate of deterioration can an addiction to the country’s threaten the internet and various Douglas Vakoch glibly dismisses be ameliorated by those who care, most successful export, sudoku, computer systems, is this perhaps fears that sending signals to other and there are precious few of us I recently downloaded an app something that might best be worlds might pose a risk to Earth with any power to affect change. called Logic Games and find solved by major companies (2 December 2017, p 24). Quite a Where are the leaders who myself playing it at odd times of such as Microsoft and Google? few illustrious thinkers disagree advocate a better environment the day. As its tag states, it truly I can envisage these companies with him, including Stephen for our children? is a time killer. setting up a joint agency that Hawking, Elon Musk and I checked the credits and sure would hire the very best experts Geoff Marcy. They believe that No sex please, we’re enough, most of the puzzles are to research weaknesses and deliberate transmissions of this viruses credited to the magazine Nikoli threats, and find solutions to sort are too dangerous and so and Miyamoto, one of the puzzle those issues that ultimately we shouldn’t send them. From Eric Kvaalen, masters mentioned by Heaven in threaten their customers and It is the height of irresponsible Les Essarts-le-Roi, France his review. therefore their businesses. This arrogance for Vakoch to override Unfortunately, the idea of an agency would avoid sometimes such concerns and broadcast “extinction drive” won’t work for Can big tech shield us inappropriate and conflicting nevertheless, as he has just done. poliovirus, as suggested by Bruce from cyberweapons? government agendas. He is gambling the entire future Denness (Letters, 16 December Government organisations of humanity upon his personal 2017). The method is based on From Elizabeth Bell, that create and distribute assessment of the risk posed. sexual reproduction, and a virus Hungerford, Berkshire, UK cyberweapons, even accidentally, Such unilateral action is doesn’t reproduce sexually. Your analysis about the situation would have much to fear from completely unacceptable and we all may be facing from such a privately funded agency, ought to be illegal. On the hunt for Japan’s cyberweapons gave me much which could provide strong master setters food for thought, particularly independent evidence and advice Prices that turn quicker concerning the limited efficacy to NATO, the UN and others. than an avocado From Steve Abrahams, of various governmental and I don’t generally see corporate London, UK international agencies in dealing agendas as possible routes to From John Widdowson, I just finished reading Douglas with it (9 December 2017, p 22). salvation, but in this case, they Melbourne, Australia Heaven’s review of Puzzle Ninja, The role of international might be. I was saddened to read that David E. H. Jones, better known on these pages as Daedalus, had passed TOM GAULD away (Old Scientist, 2 September 2017). In the past, Daedalus was always my first port of call when reading New Scientist. One story stuck with me. He described a supermarket where the price of articles changed as they were sold. If something was selling quickly the price went up, and went down if it wasn’t moving. I seem to remember reading this when computerised supermarkets weren’t common. A good bit of prediction.

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54 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 OLD SCIENTIST What was New Scientist talking about in Januaries past? TM EndNote access your research anywhere, anytime! CHRIS CLOR/PLAINPICTURE CHRIS

HOW many pieces of scientific research have been embraced by Hollywood film-makers? Probably fewer than should have been, but perhaps more than we might have expected. Older readers may remember The Poseidon Adventure, a 1972 disaster movie in which an ocean liner is capsized by a monster wave. In our 6 January 1977 issue, we warned that such waves, though poorly understood, were certainly more common than had been thought. “Killer waves”, we reported, were more likely at the continental edge where the sea-floor topography suddenly rises more steeply. We surmised that the loss of the SS Waratah off South Africa in 1909 could be explained by such a wave. More movie science, sort of, in our 16 January 1986 issue. James Bond’s Q would no doubt have been delighted to read that the world’s smallest video camera had been released by Toshiba. It was, we announced excitedly, “the size of your thumb” and you would be able to view the images on a “big-screen display”. Most of us now have cameras a fraction of the size in our phones, and carry the viewing screen around within the same piece of hardware. It is practically compulsory for just about every shoot-’em-up movie nowadays, but that red dot the bad guy sees on his jacket just before the cops dispatch him with a hail of bullets was worthy of its own news story in Leave behind the tedious work of bibliographies and 1995. “Beware the red spot, warn New York’s finest” was the reference management and take your researchtothe headline in our 14 January edition. For the first time, police next level. Buy your EndNote at www.endnote.co.uk patrolling the subway would have laser technology to pick out a felon in the gloom, using sights that made aiming in the dark a safer prospect. Unless, of course, you were a criminal and the red dot suddenly appeared in the middle of your chest. Mick O’Hare Q For more product details and training please contact:

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6 January 2018 | NewScientist | 55 FEEDBACK For more feedback, visit newscientist.com/feedback

’TIS the season to be extra-sceptical controlled “intelligent” mains of medical papers, as our colleagues switch for his home. “To make have noted (16 December 2017, p 25). it work, I had to give my Wi-Fi Yet Feedback cannot help but share network name and password to findings published in Imagination, the server in China,” he says. Cognition, and Personality, which “When I downloaded the app to suggest that young children think control the switch, it asked for birthdays are the cause of ageing. permission to access everything Two studies of 99 3 to 5-year-olds on my phone.” found significant confusion about the This would enable the server, role of birthday parties in the ageing in theory, to allow the app to process. The authors note that snoop on his online activity, as “children, like adults, are especially well as his phone use. According driven to seek explanations for to its installation report, he tells personal, meaningful events” and us, the app now has access to his that the “ubiquitous human tendency device history, browsing activity, to misattribute causation in the bookmarks, contacts, location, presence of simple co-occurrence” SMS messaging, phone, call log, results in many preschool-age photos and media files, hard children believing that birthday drive, camera, microphone and celebrations themselves cause much more besides. ageing. Which, as any parent who “I’ve wrapped it in foil and has had to manage a dozen unruly put it in a dark place,” says Mike, TO SPIN a phrase, the best time to buy the price of bitcoin indeed “would toddlers at a cake-strewn party will who has gone back to manually bitcoin was in 2009, and the second have” predicted dramatic growth for tell you, is absolutely true. operating his power switches. best time is now. The cryptocurrency 2017. Funny that! continues to soar eye-wateringly in The Venn diagrams describing IT’S also that time of year when value, which makes it useless as a way cryptocurrency fans and those who festivities mean snow – in the of buying things, but very attractive believe in magical thinking might well mind of advertisers and as an investment. have some overlap (23/30 December publicists, at any rate. This has led to all manner of people 2017). If so, take note: Vasyanova Izzy Hanson writes “as most of trying to discern if this stratospheric predicts a downturn in bitcoin us are aware, the snowflake is a rise will continue. And who better fortunes come March. wonderful example of hexagonal to ask than an astrologer? Over at symmetry. Alas, images of eight- Medium.com Ekaterina Vasyanova, MEANWHILE, the trade in bitcoin, pointed snowflakes turn up all a graduate of the “scientific astrology predicated on intentionally over the place.” school”, has turned her keen eye to laborious calculations, continues Certain quarters should know the fortunes of the world’s favourite to devour ever more power. better. Izzy reports a programme decentralised currency. Some estimates put the bitcoin of events illustrated by the eight- CONSTRUCTIVE criticism: Barbara The horoscope of bitcoin is network’s energy demand as pointed variety and titled Wager is left scratching her head over “rational, carefully thought out, but being comparable to that of “Winter Wonders… a feast of recent figures on the mountains of shrouded in mystery”, we are told, the entire nation of Belarus, festive fun, with a generous toxic e-waste produced by the world’s computed using esoteric connections or about a tenth of the UK’s. topping of excitement” organised tech industry. A widely quoted with the “North node with Neptune” If this trend continues, it won’t by… the Dundee Science Centre. UN-backed report tells her that and “the stellium of planets in be long before someone tries to “around 44.7 million tonnes of Aquarius”, among others. build a Dyson sphere, enveloping WHAT to do when the turkey e-waste” were generated in 2016, Sadly, “a system based on astrology the entire sun, to power the trade leftovers run out? Rob Milne received which has been helpfully translated cannot predict the certain price of in cryptocurrencies. Which a dangerous-sounding suggestion as weighing the equivalent of “4,500 currency”, says Vasyanova. “But it can perhaps explains why we haven’t from his energy supplier EDF, which Eiffel Towers” or “almost nine Great accurately forecast its dynamics heard from any Kardashev type 2 prompts him to “optimise your Pyramids of Giza”. Might Feedback during certain periods.” Hindsight is of civilisations yet – they are all busy self-consumption with an optional start a new logbook of mutually

PAUL MCDEVITT course 20/20, and past movements in mining bitcoin. home battery”. We’re not sure how a incomprehensible units? battery will help, but it’s one way to shed that holiday-season weight. A possible side effect of Alex Chanas’s new You can send stories to Feedback by medicine reads: “your heartbeat becomes very BEWARE of Greeks bearing gifts, email at [email protected]. slow and stops beating.” It adds, helpfully, especially if they are the internet- Please include your home address. connected kind. Mike Anon This week’s and past Feedbacks can “If this happens, go to hospital straight away” reports that he bought a remotely be seen on our website.

56 | NewScientist | 6 January 2018 THE LAST WORD Last words past and present at newscientist.com/lastword

Human attraction might be the practical minimum. centre of gravity. For this to be allow rapid regrowth. The speed of one body orbiting “significant”(say at least 1 per At night, if the tree gets too How small would something need another larger one can be worked cent of Earth’s gravitational cold, it pumps sap back to the to be for the gravitational field of out by multiplying the universal acceleration), then the object roots to avoid the sap freezing. a human to significantly affect it? gravitational constant G by the would need to be just Then, during the day the sap At what point would something mass of the body being orbited, 0.26 millimetres from your centre is pumped back up the tree. be attracted to someone or able dividing this by the orbital radius of gravity. However, this would Through this process enough to establish an orbit? and taking the square root. For place it inside your body! So, on sap travels up and down to be a 70-kilogram person, that gives Earth, the gravitational field of siphoned off for maple syrup, ■ There is no limit to how an orbital speed of just under your body will never be significant which is why syrup is produced small an object can be to exert 70 micrometres per second. It compared with the planet’s. in places with long periods of “significant”gravitational would take about 150 minutes to However, if you were in free cold nights and warm days. attraction. Any two bodies could complete an orbit of a little over fall, or in space with no other Angus Abercrombie in principle orbit each other, 6 metres – the circumference of gravitational field acting, then Belmont, Massachusetts, US because the limiting factors are a circle with a radius of 1 metre. to put an object into orbit around not their size, but how far apart The mass of the orbiting body yourself, you would need to ■In spring and summer, they are and their relative doesn’t come into the calculation, match the required centripetal the leaves of deciduous trees velocities, plus external variables but it must possess mass, no force with the gravitational force. photosynthesise, using energy such as radiation and the tidal matter how tiny. It couldn’t be a If you weighed 100 kilograms from light to make organic influences of nearby bodies. charged particle, or an isolated and the object was 1 metre away, compounds required for growth For very small bodies at neutron, because this will quickly you would need to set it in and reproduction. anything but the lowest speeds, decay into a proton and an motion at a tangential velocity of Some compounds are used it also depends on the shape and electron. Neutrinos are neutral but 0.08 millimetres per second and during the growing season, but density of the orbiting masses, tend to travel at close to the speed wait 21 hours for it to orbit you. the tree also sets some aside for because small bodies couldn’t get of light, so go too fast to stay in Simon Iveson long-term storage, principally close enough together to remain orbit. A hydrogen atom, however, University of Newcastle in the form of starch inside in mutual orbit. is neutral, so would work. New South Wales, Australia structures called amyloplasts in Centres of mass determine The human would need to be far non-photosynthetic cells – for attraction between bodies only from other bodies, so the forces example in the roots. This starch when they are so far apart that they exert couldn’t perturb the Secret stash can be broken down by enzymes shape becomes irrelevant, atom’s orbit. Even in outer space, into sucrose, the main transport unless they are spheres with any orbit would be short-lived, In the spring, deciduous trees add sugar of plants, which travels symmetrically distributed mass. because a passing cosmic ray huge amounts of foliage very quickly. around the tree via phloem So, for example, 1-milligram could kick the atom out of orbit, How do they suddenly produce this? transport tissues. spheres of osmium could orbit as could the fact humans aren’t They must be drawing on stored Sucrose can be metabolised for each other more closely and at symmetrical, spherical blobs. material and energy, but where are energy and used to form other higher speed than balls of fluff Mike Follows these stores? organic compounds. Over winter, of the same mass. Sutton Coldfield, this sustains vital physiological Jon Richfield West Midlands, UK ■In summer and autumn, processes when photosynthesis Somerset West, South Africa deciduous trees store energy in isn’t possible. Come spring, ■From Newton’s law of gravity, the sugar-water mix that is their sucrose travels to the growing ■ Provided that it has mass, we can calculate the gravitational sap. During winter, sap is stored and dividing cells at the leaf buds there is no theoretical minimum acceleration of an object that is in the roots of trees. When a tree to fuel new growth. for an object orbiting an isolated r metres from a 100-kilogram detects warmer temperatures, it Sam Buckton human. But a hydrogen atom human towards the body’s pumps sap up to the branches to Churchill College, Cambridge, UK

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