Flooding Induced by Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 10,11 204,206 87 86 B 207,208Pb Sr/ Sr
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Fiscal Year 2020 Annual Report VOL. 30, NO. 10 | OCTOBER 2020 Flooding Induced by Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 10,11 204,206 87 86 B 207,208Pb Sr/ Sr 234U/ 230 Th Sr-Nd-Hf • Geochronology – U/Th age dating • Geochemical Fingerprinting – Sr-Nd-Hf and Pb isotopes • Environmental Source Tracking – B and Sr isotopes High-Quality Data & Timely Results isobarscience.com Subsidiary of OCTOBER 2020 | VOLUME 30, NUMBER 10 SCIENCE 4 Flooding Induced by Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide GSA TODAY (ISSN 1052-5173 USPS 0456-530) prints news Gregory Retallack et al. and information for more than 22,000 GSA member readers and subscribing libraries, with 11 monthly issues (March- Cover: Mississippi River flooding at West Alton, Missouri, April is a combined issue). GSA TODAY is published by The Geological Society of America® Inc. (GSA) with offices at USA, 1 June 2019 (Scott Olsen, Getty Images, user license 3300 Penrose Place, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and a mail- 2064617248). 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Retallack* and Giselle D. Conde, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403-1272, USA ABSTRACT A direct consequence of rising CO2 is increasingly devastating flooding, because deciduous plants deploy fewer stomates each year as the atmospheric CO2 supplies more carbon for photosynthesis. When plants tran- spire less, more water runs off in streams and floods. Here we quantify this effect with high- resolution observations of changing density and size of stomates of a mesic tree, Ginkgo, since 1754. The observed decline in maxi- mum potential transpiration corresponds with rising water levels in the Mississippi River and represents a potential transpiration decline from 1829 to 2015 of 18 mL s–1 m–2: a reduction of 29%. Rising atmospheric CO2 and declining transpiration promote flooding, which handicaps lowland cultivation and ren- ders irrelevant insurance and zoning concepts such as the 100-year flood. INTRODUCTION Ongoing climatic change with rising atmo- spheric greenhouse gases (Yan et al., 2016) is disproportionally affecting tropical regions with sterilizing heat waves (Mora et al., 2017) and polar regions with disappearing sea ice (Kwok, 2018), but is less apparent in the American Midwest, thus allowing skepticism of global warming science (Wallace et al., 2014). Nevertheless, Midwestern cities and Figure 1. The paradox of rising water in the Missis- sippi River, but little change in climate or land use: (A) maximum and mean annual water level of the Mississippi River at Hannibal, Missouri (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2019); (B) mean annual pre- cipitation (mm) and mean annual temperature (°C) at Hannibal (crosses) and St. Charles (solid sym- bol), Missouri (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 2019a); (C) area of farmed land in United States (Sohl et al., 2016; U.S. Department of Agriculture Statistics Service, 2019: millions of hectares, open symbols) and in five Minnesota counties of St. Croix watershed (Andersen et al., 1996; thousands of hectares, closed symbols: top to bottom, Polk, St Croix, Pierce, Chisago, and Washington counties). GSA Today, v. 30, https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG427.1. Copyright 2020, The Geological Society of America. CC-BY-NC. *[email protected] 4 GSA Today | October 2020 agriculture have been progressively ravaged by flooding (Fosu et al., 2018). Steadily increased floods and general level (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2019) of the Mississippi River (Fig. 1A) have been independent of local climatic changes in precipitation and temperature (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 2019a), which have remained surprisingly flat (Fig. 1B). Nor can increases in farmed areas be blamed for rising flood levels, because Midwestern culti- vated acreage reached a plateau between 1900 and 1960 (Clausen, 1979; Sohl et al., 2016; Andersen et al., 1996; U.S. Department of Agriculture Statistics Service, 2019), and has declined slightly since then (Fig. 1C). Flooding is a long-term and direct response to rising atmospheric CO2 concen- trations of much greater consequence in mid-latitudes than temperature increases, and it has been observed for decades. Deciduous trees adapt to rising CO2 annu- ally by developing fewer stomates on spring leaves, because adequate CO2 for photosyn- thesis can be obtained by reduced air intake (Sugano et al., 2010; Chater et al., 2015). Fewer stomates also reduce plant transpira- tion of water, so that more precipitation runs off in rivers and floods (Betts et al., 2007). The relationship between CO2 and stomatal density has been known for some time (Woodward, 1987), and there have been many attempts at quantifying the rela- tionship (Royer et al., 2001; Retallack, 2001, 2009; Barclay and Wing, 2016; McElwain and Steinthorsdottir, 2017). Here we update quantification of stomatal response to Figure 2. Stomates from leaves of Ginkgo picked in 1754 from Deshima, Japan. Large atmospheric CO inferred from herbarium images with ~600 stomates and also non-stomatiferous areas below veins were counted 2 to ascertain total leaf conductance. Pressed leaves from Kew Herbarium and scanning specimens of Ginkgo biloba with an unprec- electron microscopy image courtesy of Chrissie Pritchard. edented data set ranging from leaves picked in 1754 (Fig. 2) through the definitive MATERIALS AND METHODS upturn of CO2 in the early twenty-first cen- sensed by stomatal ion channels, which tury (Fig. 3A). Such studies have been the direct gene expression for stomatal density We used scanning electron microscopy basis for determining CO2 levels from the in the developing leaf for that year (Sugano (SEM) images from herbarium specimens of distribution of stomates on fossil leaves et al., 2010; Chater et al., 2015). In decidu- Ginkgo biloba (Retallack and Conde, 2020) (Retallack, 2001, 2009)