Q3, 2007 Q3,

Ricardo Quarterly review

Clean future for the US Ricardo-UBS report says diesel will outsell hybrids

Heavy duty Interviews emissions Fredrik Arp, chief executive, Worldwide legislation Volvo Car Corporation converges on a very tough standard Professor Herbert Kohler chief environmental officer, DaimlerChrysler 9547 engine ad 26/1/07 15:17 Page 1

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06 22 08

news features 04 Industry news 08 Duel of the eco-champions Europe turns the emissions screw; change in climate as Fuel-efficient cars have a big future in the US – but the high the United States wakes up to CO2 regulation; BMW’s costs of hybrids mean they may be outsold by clean diesels. benchmark new diesel; Smart goes micro-hybrid Anthony Smith analyses the predictions of Diesel set to boom in the US?, a groundbreaking report from Ricardo and 24 Ricardo news investment bank UBS” Agreement with China’s Sinotruk; next-generation transmission research; new gear manufacturing technology; 16 Heavy but clean: towards a unified goal Ricardo transmission in triumphant Peugeot 908 HDi FAP Le Truck and off-highway manufacturers are under Mans racer unprecedented pressure to reduce emissions worldwide. But, as Jesse Crosse reports, convergence of standards questions and answers in the major markets could mean HDD producers working towards a common goal 06 Fredrik Arp Volvo’s chief executive is questioned by Tony Lewin on emissions reduction, SUVs, the next big steps in safety – and whether Volvo will be sold 22 Professor Herbert Kohler As chief environmental officer at DaimlerChrysler, Prof Kohler is responsible for planning every aspect of the group’s operations. Tony Lewin asks him about his priorities

Head office: Ricardo plc, Shoreham-by-Sea, Conceived and produced for Ricardo by: West Sussex, BN43 5FG, TwoTone Media Ltd United Kingdom Editor: Tony Lewin Tel: +44 (0)1273 455611 Contributors: Ricardo contacts and locations: Mark Roberts, Anthony Smith, Jesse Crosse www.ricardo.com/contacts TwoTone Media Ltd contacts: RQ subscriptions: www.ricardo.com/rq Anthony Smith: [email protected] Sales enquiries: [email protected] Tony Lewin: [email protected] Industry News

BMW pushes diesel power

ew industry benchmarks for small Twin turbochargers N diesel engines are promised by help two-litre BMW’s latest development, presented BMW diesel to an impressive 204 hp in the new coupé version of the 1-series. The two litre, four-cylinder all-aluminium unit uses twin turbochargers to boost output to 204 horsepower, making it the first diesel engine to achieve specific power in excess of 100 horsepower per litre – normally the preserve of turbocharged or highly-tuned gasoline engines. With a peak torque of 400 Nm from 2000 rev/min, the engine promises exceptional flexibility and economy. In the initial launch model, the 123d Coupé, it gives 0-100 km/h acceleration in 7.0 sec and CO2 emissions of 138 g/km. The new diesel engine comes as on all 3 series versions is what BMW which match airflow to the radiator to part of the Efficient Dynamics suite of terms Brake Energy Regeneration – a the cooling needs of the engine. CO2-saving measures available across system in which the alternator only All Mini models from August the majority of BMW’s model lines generates current when the vehicle production onwards will include Brake from September. Automatic stop-start is on the overrun. Other Efficient Energy Regeneration, with auto stop is available on manual models in the 1, Dynamics measures include Active start standard on all manual versions. 3 and 5 series ranges, while standard Aerodynamics – underbonnet flaps

CO2 control gains Europe prepares for CO2 reduction

momentum in US The likelihood is increasing that European of 130 grammes CO2 per kilometre by Florida is set to add its name to the list of legislators will confirm tough corporate 2012 was not feasible. “It will force US states seeking to achieve a 30 per cent average CO2 emissions values for new our innovative industry out of Europe, cut in vehicle emissions by 2016. cars, though details of the timing, without benefiting the environment in an Ten other states, including California, implementation and exact limits are still even vaguely efficient way,” he told the New York and Massachusetts, plan to to be finalised. European Parliament. mandate a 30 per cent cut in vehicle CO2 The association of European Yet green pressure groups and output at state level, even though the automakers, ACEA, is concerned that consumer organisations maintain the federal government, under pressure from the 2012 timetable is too tight and that targets can be met. Cleanercars.co.uk the automakers, is unwilling to impose the proposed limit of 130 g/km CO2 has calculated that if all model ranges significantly stricter consumption limits places too much burden on technology were brought up to the level of the most through the national CAFE mechanism. improvements in the vehicle itself, with efficient model within each range, the The political climate in Washington not enough being required from other overall UK fleet average would fall from has swung sharply since the decision developments. Just 10 g/km of the 166 to 140.8 g/km. in April by the Supreme Court that the proposed improvement will come from Volvo CEO Fredrik Arp said at Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) more efficient air conditioners, tyres and the Automotive News Congress in did have the power to regulate greenhouse other peripheral systems. Prague in June that already-available gas emissions and hence vehicle fuel The current average CO2 output of technologies such as direct gasoline consumption. The EPA is expected to new cars sold across Europe is around injection, boosting and new combustion propose new standards by the end of this 160 g/km. technologies could give fuel efficiency year for adoption in 2008. ACEA president Sergio Marchionne, gains of 20-30 per cent – enough to bring In June the Senate overcame opposition who is also CEO of Fiat, said that major CO2 emissions down significantly. from industry groups to pass an energy bill improvements had been made but (see interview, page 6) requiring, among other things, an increase that the target for the vehicle industry in passenger car and truck CAFE figures.

Bluetec sooner in Europe Accord: hybrid out, diesel in GM fuel cell cars by 2012 Miller cycle Mazda Mercedes-Benz has pulled The next-generation Honda General Motors plans to have Mazda is claiming a reduction of forward the European launch Accord for the US will feature fuel cell models in its dealerships up to 20 per cent in consumption of its Bluetec diesel DeNox clean-diesel rather than hybrid within five years, says the for its new 1.3 litre Miller cycle aftertreatment system. Versions technology. Uptake of the current group’s vice president of R&D, engine fitted to the Mazda2. The of the E300CDI will go on sale performance-oriented hybrid Larry Burns. DaimlerChrysler gasoline unit reduces pumping in December in four European version has been disappointing, has indicated a 2012 – 2015 losses by delaying closure of the markets. says the company. timeframe for its design. inlet valves. News in brief in News

 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 Ricardo Next-generation valve Quarterly system from Toyota Review fficiency improvements of up to will be in a new two-litre engine The task of RQ is to highlight the latest E10 per cent are claimed for a new expected this autumn. Toyota has said thinking in automotive engineering and valve mechanism set to go into Toyota it will replace its entire gasoline engine technology worldwide – both within gasoline engines in the near future. and transmission line-up by 2010. Ricardo and among other leading companies. By presenting an up-to-date Labelled Valvematic, the new mix of news, profiles and interviews mechanism adds the control of valve with top business leaders we paint an lift to the existing valve timing interesting and exciting picture of R&D control of today’s VVT-I systems. activity at a world-class automotive This enables control of air engineering services provider. inlet volume to be achieved It is a formula that has certainly been a hit with the worldwide automotive through regulation of valve community: in the five years since RQ lift, rather than by a throttle was launched we have had to increase butterfly – thus reducing our print run to 14,000 copies to keep pace pumping losses. with the demand to read about Ricardo The resulting improvement and its activities. in efficiency is enough to Client confidentiality is of the utmost reduce fuel consumption of importance to Ricardo, which means that we can only report on a small fraction gasoline engines by 5 to 10 of the work carried out by the company. per cent and to boost power So we are especially grateful to those output by at least 10 per Ricardo customers who have kindly cent. Throttle response is agreed to co-operate with RQ and allow enhanced, too, claims Toyota. their programmes to be highlighted in The first application of print: without such help from customers Valvematic, which appears similar it would not be possible to present such a fascinating insight into the way vehicles in its principles to BMW’s Valvetronic, are conceived and developed. Smart goes micro hybrid In September Smart will begin offering its Fortwo with micro-hybrid drive, claiming a reduction of up to 13 per cent in CO2 emissions in city traffic. Developed in conjunction with Valeo and Gates, the belt-driven starter-alternator system cuts the engine at 6 km/h as the driver slows to a halt with his or her foot on the brake. The engine restarts as soon as the driver releases the brake and presses the throttle pedal. With the stop-start system activated, the CO2 emissions of the one-litre, 52 kW Smart drop from 112 to 103 g/km in the combined European drive cycle. Smart becomes the fourth European carmaker (after PSA, BMW and Mini) to offer micro-hybrid drive. Several others are expected to announce similar systems at

the Frankfurt auto show. Micro-hybrid drive (left) saves 8 per cent on CO2

Mitsubishi’s battery JV Yellow cabs to go green Audi claims world’s cleanest diesel Next-generation engine Mitsubishi has formed a joint New York’s iconic yellow taxis are Summer 2008 will see the launch Mercedes will present its next- venture with the GS Yuasa battery set to go hybrid within five years of the first of a new generation of generation engine at the Frankfurt corporation to produce large- under a scheme announced by Audi TDI engines incorporating, show in September. Known as capacity and high performance city mayor Michael Bloomberg. for the first time on a production DiesOtto, it combines the principles lithium-ion batteries for use in Seeking to halve emissions over 10 car, in-cylinder pressure sensors to of both gasoline and diesel engine electric vehicles. Production is set years, 20 percent of the taxi fleet is regulate the combustion process. operation but is expected to run on to begin in 2009. to adopt hybrid power each year. The first unit will be a three litre V6 gasoline fuel. giving 240 hp.

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007  RQ Interview – Fredrik Arp

At a time when speculation is intensifying around Ford’s PAG brands, Volvo’s CEO, Fredrik Arp, maintains an undistracted focus on the Swedish carmaker’s integrity and identity. Tony Lewin spoke to him at the Automotive News Europe Congress in Prague VOLVO KEEPS ITS COOL

Is Volvo for sale? Is it officially one of The XC60 [medium SUV] is coming out There’s a different pattern in different the package of companies that Ford shortly. Can you give me some idea of parts of the world: if you’re a premium may sell? the contribution it will make to your carmaker and you develop yourself in I’m not aware of anything that has been overall volumes? 40 key countries and 104 in total, you said from Ford Motor Company that No I can’t. We have decided on principle have to balance these things. either confirms or [even] talks about this. to reveal those expectations only when we show the actual production car. So could the XC60 be a beneficiary of But Ford has said that options are SUV downsizing in Europe? being explored for the sale of the Will it be a large volume model? Well, I can only observe that the so- PAG companies, perhaps in different The customers will determine that. I called crossover segment is growing combinations. know what I’m looking at in the design very well in the world. With our heritage Now you’re starting to quote what I’ve studio, and it looks smashing. we see ourselves having a very good heard, what I’ve read – that options are position within that segment. being looked at. That’s the only thing. Volvo has shifted a lot of its output The only confirmation is that when it into those larger-type vehicles over Does Volvo still have 600,000 units as comes to Jaguar and Land Rover, two the last several years. Now, with rising its long-term volume aim? investment banks have been hired. fuel prices, do you have any concerns Yes, we still have that vision, but I There’s absolutely nothing else. about this strategy to push into bigger must say that it’s not sacred: if north vehicles? America is a challenging market to If it came to that, could Volvo survive I think it’s very balanced if you look at make money on, our key concern is to as a standalone company? what we have done. We launched the provide our dealers with a good line-up I don’t speculate; I don’t work with XC 90, that’s correct, in 2002, but then of cars to sell in all parts of the world hypotheses. I run the company and I we launched the C30 – a car which can and at the same time to have a good enjoy it. We have a great brand, a great get 129 g/km CO2 and 4.8 litres per 100 market equation. If this means we have company and a great team. km. So we do both: we have a balanced slightly less than that [600,000] it’s not strategy that also mirrors where we a big concern to me – we don’t have a What does Volvo currently share sell and the demands of the premium general volume strategy, we have more with Ford? market. Volvo’s XC60 crossover concept It’s better to answer it like this – to ask was presented at January’s what mutual benefit we have gained What happens if there’s a backlash Detroit show with Ford over the last seven or eight against SUVs, because the XC90 is years. And the answer is yes: we’ve had pretty large? excellent opportunities to share certain Yes, we are very concerned about technologies and certain building what happens in the world and we are blocks, but at the same time we’ve been committed to improve our emissions very careful to make sure the DNA and and fuel economy going forward. The identities of the respective companies XC90 is actually seen as quite a small are maintained. And at the same time SUV in the US, so we see people going we have leveraged on the purchase of from larger SUVs to the XC90. In certain commodities and also made sure we’ve other parts of the world such as Russia, had the right supplier relationships it’s a very fast-growing vehicle. But and the right quality. It’s good for our in downtown Milan, for instance, it’s customers and it’s good for some of the getting more and more difficult to get Ford customers. acceptance to drive in with big SUVs.

 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 of a returns strategy. Nevertheless, it – like whiplash – which are a frequent seats and extra horsepower, we haven’t is still true that we need to come up to accident type. yet found a way of pricing for CO2. The a slightly higher level to have the right pricing guys become awfully quiet scale economies to support the brand Does it spot pedestrians and cyclists when you ask them. development and the share of voice too? development towards the customer in That’s one of the issues we are working But the Toyota Prius is high-priced the decade to come. with. It needs to be able to handle those and buyers are paying extra for low issues in an appropriate manner. CO2 and the perception that they are Can you achieve those sorts of reducing CO2. numbers with your existing capacity? What is Volvo’s view on safety systems That is the only example – and maybe Yes. That includes China and its which automatically intervene in the it works because it’s a unique vehicle. two models – the S40 and the long vehicle’s braking or steering to avoid a The complexity we – and other wheelbase S80 that we announced collision? manufacturers – have is when we start when the Chinese president visited City Safety does do that [braking], to add on these features and these Volvo recently. True, it will be lower but at lower speeds. It’s a first step. costs, and then try to charge for them. volume than the S40, but it’s an excellent Higher speeds are different: a full Just ask around how people will charge add-on to our brand strength in China. brake triggered by collision warning or for Euro 5 and Euro 6 – and it’s not for accident avoidance systems could have free. I’m not saying that the industry What will be the next big step in serious consequences in a motorway isn’t good at getting scale economies safety? situation, for instance. Partial braking is and reducing costs, but we have a City Safety is something we will launch, more appropriate at higher speeds. For mountain out there that we need to hopefully before the end of 2008. City Safety we believe we can handle climb in the next five, six or seven years That is going to be a very interesting the full braking. if we are going to drive down emissions feature: you have short-range detection by 25 to 30 per cent collectively. system, a pre-braking system and a full On the powertrain side you have Somewhere, somebody has to pay, braking system. We’ve been testing suggested potential CO2 reductions of apart from the industry. this for more than a year in various 20 to 30 percent by using known and situations, including real traffic where available technologies. Will Volvo come Where does Volvo stand on other we’re allowed to do so: it’s interesting up with the next big steps? technologies such as hybrids? because it could capture up to 75 per There are so many technologies out There are the technologies I mentioned cent (we say 50, but it’s up to 75) of all there, and we all need to deploy some earlier – the 20 components which front-to-rear collisions in city traffic. of them – if not all of them. We have to enable us to reduce CO2 by 20 to 25 Up to 15 km/h it would eliminate all select between technologies here – we percent, and which we’re trying to make mechanical damage; up to 30 km/h can’t engineer in everything. The cost affordable for the customer, though it would significantly reduce the of ownership will be horrendous, and it takes some time. And then we’re mechanical damage. Also, it would so will the investment. And, while we looking at hybrids, which is a jungle of mean an end to injuries to occupants know how to price for things like leather potential opportunities and mishaps.

“ I run the company and I enjoy it. Fredrik Arp We have a great brand, a great company 2005 - President and CEO, and a great team” Volvo Car Corporation

1999-2005 President and CEO, Trelleborg AB, Sweden

1996-1999 President and CEO, PLM AB, Sweden

1989-1996 President and CEO, Trelleborg Industrier, Sweden

1988-1989 President and CEO, Boliden Kemi AB, Sweden

1986-1988 Head of Tyre Division, Trelleborg AB, Sweden

1983-1986 Divisional Manager, Tarkett AB, Sweden

1980-1983 President and CEO, Tarkett, France

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007  Hybrid versus diesel

Duel of the eco-champions With many predicting a new dawn for fuel-efficient cars in the face of concerns over global warming and energy security, Ricardo and international investment bank UBS have published research focusing on the key automotive battleground of the US market. Some surprising trends are predicted, says Anthony Smith

ybrids are the future of the US of UBS, were bound to upset some things up better with its headline: market: that – at least until May widely cherished views on the future Hybrid cars face challenge from new Hof this year – was the consensus of the US automotive market. Under diesel breed. But while the report did outlook for light vehicle sales in north the questioning title Is diesel set indeed predict that sales of diesel cars America. But following the publication to boom in the US?, the research would significantly outstrip those of of a ground-breaking report by project set out to provide insights to hybrids in North America by 2012, both Ricardo and investment bank UBS, the corporate investment community vehicle types are predicted to enjoy a very different picture of the future regarding the potential automotive unprecedented levels of growth. US automotive scene is emerging investment opportunities arising from – a picture in which the diesel, all but the increasing interest in fuel-efficient Emissions reduction: more needed ignored for 20 years, has a pivotal role technologies. While debate is still active regarding to play. Published on May 24, the report the next steps in regulated vehicle The conclusions of the extensive was given widespread coverage in exhaust emissions, the achievements research project into the future of the mainstream news media: the of the auto industries of the developed the US automotive market, carried authoritative voice of London’s leading triad of Japan, North America and the out by Ricardo and analysts from business newspaper, the Financial European Union over the past three the Global Equity Research team Times, could not have summed decades have been nothing less than

8 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 Duel of the eco-champions

astounding. For example, a modern car are beginning to realise this too, and Hybrid Lexus(left) and clean-diesel Mercedes emits less hydrocarbon emissions while emissions will in any case continue represent the future technologies set to do battle in the US. The new Ricardo-UBS report running than a 1970s pre-emissions to reduce from today’s already low predicts a pivotal role for diesel controls car emits while stationary and levels as older vehicles are scrapped with the engine turned-off. and replaced. There is also a cost to least in the US, and while the transport Painting a room in an average family be borne in mind when considering sector generates only around a quarter house with a gallon of gloss paint emits further emissions reductions beyond of the total manmade GHG emissions, more volatile organic compounds those already proposed – a cost not it is perhaps the most visible and hence than driving a Toyota Prius for 150,000 just financial but also in terms of the easiest target for action. miles. Moreover on a typical warm day trade-off with fuel consumption and The fact that this emerging consensus in Los Angeles, the exhaust gases of a hence potentially the next big thing in for action is also apparent in a country vehicle such as a Honda Insight Hybrid emissions regulation, carbon dioxide. previously noted for its scepticism will be cleaner on average than the of global warming is perhaps at least surrounding air the engine draws in. Greenhouse gases – the new in part driven by the parallel issue of While there are clearly challenges emissions problem national energy security. This has been remaining in terms of further It is now a broadly accepted fact among brought into focus by concerns over reductions in the remaining emissions hundreds of scientists, thousands the perceived over-dependence of the of hydrocarbons, NOx and particulate of legislators and millions of citizens US on imported oil from politically matter envisaged in future legislation, the world over that emissions of volatile parts of the world. There is also there is clearly something of an greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2 the issue of long-term energy supply, end-game of diminishing returns resulting from human activity are the as finite oil resources are subject to in expending further efforts on the main contributors to global warming. increasing competition from the rapidly reduction of already very low levels These concerns are leading to a developing parts of the world, such as of pollutants from new vehicles. The growing public and political appetite China and India. regulators in Europe and North America for measures aimed at limiting CO2, not On May 14, 2007 President Bush ⁄

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007  Global Autos Research 24 May 2007

Q Pollutants (such as sulphur compounds, nitrogen oxides, particulates (soot), lead, etc) which are known to cause direct harm to humans; and

Q Greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) which are not directly toxic but which are thought very likely to contribute to global warming. Pollution (‘dirty’ exhausts) no longer an issue In the developed triad (Japan, North America, and the European Union), the pollution problem is essentially solved (Figure 7). If this statement elicits scepticism, note that:

Q A modern car emits fewer pollutants while running than a 1970s vintage (pre-emission controls) car emits turned off – as the latter vents unburned hydrocarbons into the atmosphere from its leaky fuel system.

Q Painting an average room in an average house with a gallon of gloss paint emits more volatile organic compounds than driving a Prius 150,000 miles.

Q On a typical warm day in Los Angeles an AT-PZEV (Advanced-Technology Partial Zero Emission Vehicle, in California regulator terminology), such as a Honda Insight hybrid, will exhaust cleaner air than it takes in.

Due to the efforts of regulators, car companies, suppliers, and countless engineers, the problem of emission of pollutants from new cars is thus effectively solved.

Figure 7: Modern emission controls have drastically cut pollution from new vehicles Particulate emissions from the UK vehicle fleet, 1995-2015E

Example: Particle emissions, UK, Average of all vehicles 1995-2015 Hybrid versus diesel

Urban Road Transport PM 10 Emissions Urban Road TransportBased on PM10 predicted Particulate growth in vehicleEmissions parc and Euro 1-4 emissions standards Based on predicted growth in vehicle parc and Euro 1-4 emissions standards Unfulfilled expectations: 25 some customers are unhappy with hybrid fuel Motorcycles Buses 20 efficiency LGV HGV Cars 15

10 TotalEmissions (ktonnes/yr) 5

0 Report Stern The Source: 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

ven in California, where the ordered administration departments to new rules that will require a 30 per cent Source: The Stern Report Efiscal and practical incentives have regulations prepared by the end of reduction in CO2 output (corresponding for hybrid vehicle ownership are 2008 that will aim to cut petroleum use to a 30 per cent improvement in fuel as attractive as anywhere in the and GHG emissions. The US does have economy) by 2016. UBS 22 world, the issue of fuel efficiency fuel economy standards (fuel economy At a national level the US Supreme is a controversial one. Many being the main determinant of CO2 Court ruled in April 2007 that the hybrid owners have complained emissions), but the Corporate Average Environment Protection Agency that hybrids do not get anywhere Fuel Economy rules (CAFE) require (EPA) has the power to regulate GHG near the official gas mileage. The modest standards – just 22.2 mpg for emissions, following an action taken Ricardo-UBS report argues that light trucks and 27.5 mpg for passenger by 12 States (led by Massachusetts); this is likely because the official US cars – and have not been tightened for the states argued that the EPA should test cycle involves a very careful, many years. set national rules but had refused to deliberate driving style with very Efforts to raise these standards in do so. EPA administrator Stephen slow acceleration periods – one that the past have usually been stalled by Johnson recently said that the goal is not representative of real driving. political lobbying. But the political is to unveil a fuel economy proposal As such, hybrids are in effect mood appears to be shifting – and it this year and to have it adopted by the flattered by the official US test cycle. looks as if higher standards could be end of 2008. This may in effect replace The following is the experience introduced at the individual state level CAFE as previously administered by the of one Californian hybrid owner Globalas Autos well Research as the 24 May national 2007 level. Department of Transportation. reported in the paper, Mercury Ten US states, led by California, have News, April 14: Greenhousealready acted gases to regulateare the issueCO2 emissions going forward Diesels versus hybrids – the key debate Whatat is the emphatically state level not – solved a move is the that greenhouse has gas problem.With Emission regulation of likely and with a ‘We have a 2006 Honda Civic non-toxicproved carbon controversial dioxide, an inevitable and which by-product has of the burninggrowing of fossil appetitefuels, amongst consumers hybrid with carpool stickers. But continuesled automakers to soar as humanity to take puts morelegal cars action. on the road. Althoughfor fuel-efficiency it should be (driven, not least, by noted that the transportation sector generates only about one-quarter of the mileage is disappointing, in the Higher fuel economy/lower CO2 rules the apparently ever-increasing pump 33-38 mpg range. This is whether manmadewill clearlygreenhouse negatively gases, it is certainly impact the sales most visibleof emitter.price of fuel), the Ricardo-UBS report I am driving or my husband, and larger vehicles. But these 10 states, looks in detail at hybrid gasoline-electric It is now of course a broadly-accepted fact among hundreds of scientists, although highway driving is a bit thousandsaccounting of legislators, for moreand millions than of 30 citizens per centthat this of gas plusand other diesel products powertrains and poses the better, it comes nowhere near the of combustionUS vehicle are the sales, main contributorsare intent to on global setting warming (Figurequestion: 8). “Which technology will win in 49-51 mpg sticker average. I know that was inflated, but I had hoped FigureAnalysis 8: Analysis of of climate climate data data indicates indicates increasing increasing temperatures temperatures linked to man’s are production linked ofto greenhouse gases to be getting in the low to mid-40s man’s production of greenhouse gases consistently. I have taken the car to Honda, and they just tell me that 49- Key Drivers: 51 aren’t their numbers (although ‰ CO2 emissions (burning they were happy to tout them to get carbon based fuel) me to buy the car), and that they – Transport accounts for ~25% of manmade CO have no numbers to give me’. 2 – Air transport is fastest growing contributor In real-world driving conditions, ‰ Other emissions, especially the report contends that diesels Methane offer very similar fuel efficiency to – A cow produces 100x more than a car gasoline hybrids – a result borne ‰ Changes to environment out by diesel-versus-hybrid tests such as De-forestation by US and European automobile magazines. Source: The Stern Report Stern The Source:

Source: The Stern Report 10 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 The battle between hybrids and diesels is essentially about improving fuel economy (MPG), the direct driver of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. As far as toxic pollutant regulations go, both technologies are pretty much in full compliance, although diesels face some challenges in this regard in the near future.

US legislation may shift towards cutting CO2 With US vehicles now very effectively ‘cleaned up’, we believe the conditions

are right for a shift towards lowering CO2 emissions. Recent moves by individual states are clearly in this direction, and national-level legislation is also increasingly likely.

UBS 23 Global Autos Research 24 May 2007 Global Autos Research 24 May 2007

Figure 9: Current US legislative focus is NOx emissions – but balance may shift towards fuel efficiency/CO2 (e.g. particulates, NOx) rather than on the emission of non-toxic greenhouse Global Autos Research 24 May 2007 avoid the stigma of ‘dirty diesel’ in the gases (GHG) like CO2.NOx The emissions US does vs havefuel efficiency/CO fuel economy2 standards (fuel minds of US consumers and can be economy being the main determinant of CO2 emissions), but the CAFE rules CAFE / CO (e.g. particulates, NOx) rather than on the emission of non-toxicCAFE greenhouse / CO22 filled at normal gas station pumps: (corporate average fuel economy) require modest standards (22.2 mpg for light in many US filling stations, the diesel gases (GHG) like CONOx2. The US does have fuel economyFuel efficiency standards is the primary (fuel incentive for trucks and 27.5 mpg for passenger cars) and have not been tightened for quite OEMs to offer Diesel products pump infrastructure is laid out for economy being the main determinant of CO emissions), but the CAFE rules some time: the passengerTier car II standardNOx standards has remain remained very challenging unchanged since2 1990 and the commercial vehicles. ‰ Technical risks An increasing momentum for a shift in political (corporate average fuel economy) require modest standardsfocus (22.2 towards mpg the 'Green' for lightas Global Warming light truck standard has only• Initial slightly compliance increased levels from levels first set in 1979. The state of California in particular grows as an issue in the US Efforts to raise thesetrucks standards and• 27.5Vehicle in the mpglife-cycle past, for complianceand passenger to expand (deterioration cars) coverage and have from notpollutants been tightened for quite has taken measures to incentivise the factor) Increasing political pressure for CAFE standards to to GHG, have usuallysome been time:• stalled theOff-cycle passenger by operation political (lowcar temperatures,standard lobbying. has high But remained the political unchanged mood since 1990be raised and the purchase of hybrid vehicles. Hybrids light truck altitude, standard etc.) has only slightly increased from levels first set in 1979. to date have been allowed to use the appears to be shifting – and‰ Cost it looksrisks likely that higher standards are likely at the CARB CO2 rules are implemented (if they withstand Efforts to •raiseInitial these cost standards in the past, and to expand coveragecourt from challenges pollutants by the OEMs) state’s high-occupancy vehicle or individual state level (on GHG)• Warranty and possibly national level (on both GHG and to GHG, have usually been stalled by political lobbying. But the political mood carpool lanes. This has been a major CAFE). California (& "Green" states) continues to impose attraction in car-congested metro appears to be shifting – and it looks likely that higher standardsmore stringent are legislationlikely at than the the Federal US Tier II certification is refined to focus further on real areas, although California’s allotment individual stateworld level / "off-cycle" (on GHG) emissions and possibly national level (on both GHG and Environment Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Stephen Johnson recently of 85,000 such permits is now fully CAFE).Ricardo Source: Note: The size of the ‘weights in this illustration are not said that the goal is to unveilIncreasingly a fuel stringent economy Californian proposal LEV legislation this year and to haveindicative it of the magnitude of the driver used up. In most cases hybrids have adopted by the end of 2008. EPA rules may replace the corporate average fuel also been permitted to bypass the lines Environment Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Stephen Johnson recently that form behind timed stoplights on economy programme, the or North CAFE, American that the market?” Department of Transportationwhich are has untypical of the way that cars said that the goal is to unveil a fuel economy proposal this year and to have it California’s metered-access highway previously administered.Note: However, The size of the in 'weights' the inUS this illustrationin particular, are not indicative of the magnitudeare of driven the driver in everyday conditions. 5 on-ramps. Until 2010 hybrid owners adoptedthe relativeby the end fuel of efficiency 2008. EPA benefits rules may of replace the corporate average fuel Source: Ricardo are exempted from the requirement Ten US states seekeconomy theseto lower programme,two COtechnologies2 output or CAFE, are something that the Department Hybrid ofadvantages Transportation and incentives has to bring their vehicles in for the state’s previouslyof a controversial administered. subject – something Gasoline-hybrid powertrains already Ten US states, led by California, have recently acted to regulate CO emissions California calling for 30% reductionotherwise in mandatory smog check. which demands detailed analysis. benefit2 from some regulatory and at the state level – a move that has proved controversial and led automakers to CO2 output by 2016 Many Californian cities allow hybrids Ten USThe states report seek sets toout lower the case CO that2 output commercial advantages. They are fully to park for free. And, as if all these take legal action. Higherdiesels fuel economy/lower and hybrid gasoline CO2 rules powertrains (the two movecompliant together, with strict tailpipe emissions Ten US states, led by California, have recently acted to regulate CO2 emissions California publiccalling forincentives 30% reduction to own in a hybrid were since a more fuel-efficientactually vehicle give emits very less similar CO2 )fuel will efficiency clearly negatively regulations impact (such as particulate and not enough, many large Californian sales of large vehiclesat the results.– statehence level Publishedthe resi– astance move fuel ofthat economy the has Big proved 3 (‘gas automakers. controversial NOx But emissions); theseand led automakers perhaps equallyto CO2 output by 2016 employers offer their employees grants take mileage’)legal action. statistics Higher fuelsuggest economy/lower that hybrids CO 2 importantly,rules (the two hybrids move together, also allow owners 10 states, accounting for more than 30% of US vehicle sales, are intent on to purchase hybrids (for example, sinceoffer a more greater fuel-efficient savings vehiclethan diesels, emits less but CO2) towill visibly clearly demonstrate negatively impact their green setting new rules that will require a 30% reduction in CO2 output (e.g. a 30% the report cites Google as offering its salesmany of large automakers vehicles – arguehence thethat resi thestance official of thecredentials Big 3 automakers. – thanks But to thethese extensive improvement in fuel economy) by 2016. workers a rebate of $5,000). 10 states,test cycle accounting in the US for benefits more than hybrids 30% of USpositive vehicle publicity sales, are for intent the technology on Figure 1: California and ninewith other unrealistic states plan driving to demand techniques a 30% reduction in(and, vehicle in the CO 2case output of bythe 2016. Toyota These Prius, rules a will affect setting new rules that will require a 30% reduction in CO2 output (e.g. a 30% The many flavours of hybrid more than 30% of vehicles(such sold asin thevery US. slow Other acceleration states may follow periods) distinctive body shape). Hybrids also improvement in fuel economy) by 2016. One of the aspects of hybrid Maine technology that is potentially confusing Figure 1: California and nine other states plan to demand a 30% reduction in vehicle CO2 output by 2016. Theseto the rulesbuyer will is affect the fact that many Vermont more than 30% of vehicles sold in the US. Other states may follow different types of system are available. Washington At theMaine most simple level are the New York Massachusetts stop/start systems as offered on a Vermont Oregon number of smaller European models Washington as well as the Saturn Vue: here, the NewRhode York Island Connecticut engineMassachusetts will switch off automatically Oregon whenever the car is stationary and will C New Jersey al UBS restart automatically as soon as it is i 24 Rhode Island fo r Maryland n required. The next level of complexity i Connecticut a is represented by so-called micro- C New Jersey al hybrid systems: these work in the Arizonai New fo r Maryland n Mexico same way as stop/start systems but ia Adopting new CO2 rules offset the energy requirement for Likely to adopt successive restarts via regenerative ⁄ No changes planned Arizona New Mexico Adopting new CO2 rules Clean contenders line up: diesel Mercedes Likely to adopt GL 320cdi (below left) and Mercedes No changes planned E320cdi, and the Toyota Prius, the car that has come to define the hybrid Source: UBS

UBS 5 Source: UBS

UBS 5

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 11 Global Autos Research 24 May 2007

Complementary technologies: A diesel-hybrid is possible We see the key battle in the US as hybrid versus diesel. But it is important to In the medium term, we believe the note that ‘hybridization’ is a technique applicable to any powerplant (gasoline, competition will be between gasoline- Diesel, fuel cell, etc.), whereas Diesel is a fuel choice. Thus, as we shall see, powered hybrids and conventional Diesels can be hybridized as well as gasoline engines: in this regard, the two transmission diesels strategies can be complementary as well as competitive. But, in the medium term, we believe the competition will be between gasoline-powered hybrids and conventional transmission diesels as:

Q These are the only sort currently on the road in production (versus prototype) form;

Q Diesel-hybrids imply a doubling up of the cost penalty of each technology.

A variety of hybrid types What can be confusing about hybrids is that various ‘flavors’ exist, from a very basic stop/start model (e.g. Saturn Vue), to a mild system (e.g. Honda’s entries), to the full-blown system in the Prius. Each type offers different cost/performance tradeoffs (Figure 11), but in the US the full hybrid has probably attracted the most interest to date.

Hybrid versus diesel Figure 11: The configuration of hybrid powertrains varies significantly, as do the costs and customer benefits Comparison of three types of hybrid

Comparison of hybrid configurations, Attributes Investment # of # hybrid Piece Cost Packaging Reduction

costs and customer benefits Reliability Required Plug-in hybrids features MPG CO US Market 2 Interest

• Front of powertrain • Stop / start & • Saturn: Vue • Low cost, fuel + + + ++ ++ $ $ Low micro hybrid • Citroen: C3 economy improver

• Mid powertrain • Honda: Accord, Medium - • Mild hybrid ++ ++ ++ ++ + $$ $$ • More hybrid features Civic High

• Toyota: Prius, • Mid powertrain Camry, • Full set of hybrid Highlander • Full hybrid features • Lexus: RX400h, +++ +++ +++ ++ ++ $$$ $$$ High • High-tech image GS650h vehicle • Ford: Escape Source: Ricardo Source:

plug-in hybrid is one which braking. Some systems of this type also battery pack, all of the energy required A recharges its traction battery not Source:offer Ricardo limited stall protection for manual to move the car forward – even in just by running its gasoline engine but transmissions. The new Efficient ZEV mode – will have ultimately been also by plugging into an electric power TheDynamics ‘duty cycle’ BMW is themodels key aredriver examples of hybrid benefitsderived from its gasoline fuel tank. In outlet. This concept envisages that In evaluatingof this type which of type system. is right for a given driver or a givenessence, OEM’s thetarget hybrid A wide system array of hybridsis enabling are available – drivers use the car throughout the day, market,Mild the intended hybrids ‘duty such cycle’ as is the the determiningHonda factor. Forthe a smallgasoline city car engine confusing to operate for consumers? more running mostly on pure electric drive perenniallyAccord stuck and in stop-and-goCivic IMA traffic, (integrated a stop/start motor system (essentiallyefficiently. a regular (with the gasoline engine coming on assist) use a small flywheel-mounted One further type of hybrid, not yet only intermittently), and depleting the electric motor to supplement engine on the market, breaks away from this UBS 26 battery by evening. The vehicle is then power and provide potential fuel total reliance on energy being derived plugged in for overnight recharging savings by allowing a smaller gasoline from its combustion engine: the so- (and, given the size of the battery – to engine to be fitted – the technique called ‘plug-in’ hybrid (see box, left) can enable a lot of all-electric driving – this known as downsizing. charge its batteries from a domestic will take five or six hours or more) and Finally, the highest level of electric socket. is ready to go the next morning. commercially available hybrid All sorts of benefits ensue. Fuel system is represented by full hybrids The duty cycle is critical cost savings stem from the fact that, such as the Toyota Prius, Camry In evaluating which type is right for a broadly speaking, a mile of driving on and Highlander, Lexus RX400h and given driver or a given OEM’s target electric power costs less in terms of GS450h,and the Ford Escape hybrid. market, the intended duty cycle is kilowatt-hour electricity bill charges In these vehicles, one or more electric the determining factor. For an urban than the equivalent in gasoline that motors provide significant power and delivery vehicle or a small city car would be burned; secondly, overall in some instances, an electric-only perennially stuck in stop-and-go traffic, emissions are generally reduced, more ZEV mode. a stop/start system may well in itself especially so if the charging electricity All of the above types of hybrid generate significant fuel savings. This is coming from a renewable source. system have one over-arching common was demonstrated by the Ricardo If the vehicle on a given day runs operating principle: while some energy HyTrans project in which a micro- only 10 miles, and thus usesGlobal only Autos Research may 24 May be 2007 recaptured in regenerative hybrid delivery vehicle generated fuel battery energy, its gasoline use is zero braking and more still generated by consumption savings of up to 21 per and thus its apparent fuel Figureeconomy 19: Technology the advancesengine and have stored delivered in the dram vehicle’satic improvements cent based in diesel on product a recorded attributes ‘real world’ is infinite – one needs to convert the electricity consumed in recharging the How diesel product attributes have improved since the 1990s vehicle into its gasoline equivalent to get to a true mpg figure. 180% The big challenges for plug-in AVG. SPECIFIC TORQUE 160% hybrids remain the cost, packaging and durability of the battery pack. 140% Predictions of future battery costs are problematic; they depend not only on 120% advances in chemistry and battery cell AVG. SPECIFIC POWER design, but on the scale of production 100% and on the balance of the vehicle’s electric-only versus gasoline-assisted 80% duty cycle. EU FLEET AVG. CO2 Possibly a bigger issue will be 60% marketing: after Honda and Toyota et PM EMISSIONS al have spent millions on advertising 40% telling people they don’t have to plug NOx EMISSIONS in a hybrid. 20% EU2 EU3 EU4

0% Ricardo Source: 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

12 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 Developments continue to show significant potential for future US and global diesel products

Source: Ricardo Clean emissions remain diesel’s big challenge The remaining challenge modern diesels face, however, is emissions Diesel’s challenge is to meet tough US performance. In simplistic terms, US regulations are aggressive regarding regulations on pollution pollutants and lax regarding greenhouse gases (GHG). In the EU the regulatory regime is much more focused on GHG. Given this emphasis, the EU has permitted diesels to run slightly ‘dirtier’ than the US allows, in a trade-off for diesels’ superior performance on GHG.

As pollution regulations everywhere continue their inexorable tightening, however, the diesel in Europe and the US both is starting to run into pollutant- emissions problems. This challenge is well-known and well-addressed by OEM engineering departments, but it does mean that careful work must be done to ensure diesels can be ‘cleaned up’ without giving up their MPG advantage over gasoline, or losing further ground on the cost front (Figure 20).

UBS 37 Honda caused a stir when it announced its North American Accord hybrid would be phased out in favour of a clean diesel version. Here CEO Takeo Fukui poses by the first clean diesel in 2006

such as lean NOx trap (LNT) or selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technologies. While there is considerable debate as to which NOx aftertreatment system will take precedence in the US market, it appears clear that the challenges of each (including, for example, the implementation of a urea distribution network for the SCR technology currently favoured in Europe) can be overcome.

Diesel’s key advantages The modern diesel powertrain offers consumers some significant drive cycle typical of this type of are even stricter than those currently advantages over its gasoline operation. suggested for Euro 6 in 2014. counterpart. It can offer similar real- For a more varied pattern of usage, However, as research and world fuel economy to a gasoline hybrid a mild- or full-hybrid powertrain may development work by Ricardo and and can even exceed this for users who be more appropriate, whereas for others has shown, the US Tier 2 drive predominantly long distances at predominantly high-speed freeway standards are achievable for diesels high speed in freeway conditions. It also operation hybridisation may have little using the latest generation of fuel has a superior torque characteristic to or no benefit. This sensitivity of fuel injection systems, advanced air gasoline engines, which gives a more efficiency to duty cycle is at least in part handling such as two-stage inter-cooled responsive fun-to-drive experience; the reason for some of the controversy turbo-charging, and NOx aftertreatment additionally, it provides better towing ⁄ surrounding unfulfilled public expectations of gas mileage (see box, page 10). “Painting a room in an average family house with a gallon of gloss paint emits Meeting the ‘clean diesel’ challenge While the poor brand image of more volatile organic compounds than diesels among American consumers driving a Toyota Prius for 150,000 miles. – due largely to the unrefined and underpowered products of previous Moreover on a typical warm day in Los decades – is a clear obstacle in the US, Angeles, the exhaust gases of a vehicle meeting the stringent tailpipe NOx emissions standards is perhaps a much such as a Honda Insight Hybrid will be greater challenge. These standards cleaner on average than the surrounding apply at both a federal level in terms of the standards set by the Environmental air the engine draws in” Protection Agency (EPA) which are followed by 45 US states, and at an individual state level for those states which follow the even stricter standards set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB); California, Maine, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont are in this group. The Tier 2 standards being phased in over 2004-2009 at the federal level are weighted by vehicle size (so that they can for instance be averaged across each OEMs’ fleet), but the Californian regulations require compliance by all vehicles on sale. These standards are significantly more challenging than those proposed by the EU for 2009 and in certain respects

Toyota Prius: the only example to date of a purpose-designed hybrid car

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 13 Global Autos Research 24 May 2007

Diesel versus hybrid: The key debate Which technology will win in the US? In this report, we look closely at the relative merits of diesel and hybrid. Both offer significant fuel savings. The relative fuel efficiency of the two powertrains is a controversial subject.

Similar ‘real world’ fuel efficiency We believe the two powertrains give very similar results. Published fuel economy Diesel and hybrids offer similar fuel statistics (e.g. ‘gas mileage’) suggest hybrids offer greater savings than diesel, but efficiency: hybrids may be less many automakers argue that the official test cycle in the US benefits hybrids effective in ‘real world driving’ with unrealistic driving techniques (e.g. very slow acceleration periods). Many than claimed ‘real world’ tests show diesels to be more fuel efficient in mixed conditions (hybrids have an edge in heavy braking as braking energy is recovered during stop/start driving).

Gasoline-hybrid powertrains have some regulatory and commercial advantages. Hybrids are fully compliant with strict tailpipe regulations (e.g. particulate and NOx emissions – diesel engines find these regulations complex to meet). Hybrids allow the consumer to demonstrate his/her ‘green credentials’, given extensiveHybrid publicity versus for thediesel technology (and, in the case of the Toyota Prius, a visible bodyshape). Hybrids also avoid the stigma of ‘dirty diesel’ in the minds of US consumers and can be filled at normal gas station pumps (diesel pump infrastructure is tailored to commercial vehicles).

FigureFuel 2: Economy Hybrid powertrains improvement are more efficient relative in congested to conventional city driving – conventional Gasoline diesels engine are superior on open roads. Relative merits of hybrids and diesels in different traffic types The US battleground for diesels and hybrids The current political and legislative ‰ Conventional Relative merits of Diesel or climate in the US generally favours Hybrid depend on application Diesel Engine hybrids over diesel, particularly in and drive pattern FFullu Hybrid with California and the other CARB states, ll pgasolinee H engine ‰ Stop/start and low speed tr y but the report argues that a shift in o br driving favours Hybrid l e id ng w configuration the direction of diesel is possible, i it ne h particularly if its economic advantages MMild Hybrid with gasoline engine ‰ Higher speed operation ild H can be showcased. Already, some of Better ybrid requires high efficiency with combustion and petr the technology-specific incentives for Conventional Gasoline Engine Conventional ol en transmission gine hybrids are beginning to be phased out,

Fuel Economy ImprovementFuel Economy to Relative – “Electric Transmission ” is Source: Schommers, DaimlerChrysler + GM, Aachen Oct 05 always less efficient than but perhaps the greatest advantage of City Traffic (congested) City Traffic (flowing) Urban / Motorway mechanical system diesel versus gasoline hybrids is cost. Source: Ricardo Source: Based on a Ricardo analysis, UBS Source: Ricardo estimate, Schommers, DaimlerChrysler, GM, Aachen, October 2005 estimates that for a V8 powertrain “DieselThe is pace more cost of competitive uptake is likely to depend on a the cost of a bare gasoline engine of approximately 4.0 litres capacity, Despitemultiplicity some clear advantages for of hybrids, factors we are ultimately and more bullish will on beDiesel strongly cost penalty lower than for diesel for one simple reason: cost. Hybrid powertrains ultimately cost more than hybrids without transmission and capable of US diesels,influenced and we do not believe by the fuel cost penalty prices of hybrid will and change other macro- emissions compliance, is approximately dramatically even with big increases in production volumes. It is complex to $2000. The incremental cost of a compareeconomic the cost penalty of adevelopments. modern ‘clean’ diesel engine with a conventional In this particular current European diesel without gasoline engine and with a hybrid powertrain – there are differences in size, battleground, therefore, it looks as if both complex exhaust aftertreatment is circa

UBS 7 $1000-2000, whereas a US compliant low-carbon powertrain technologies will clean diesel would have an incremental emerge as winners” cost of around $3000-$4000 depending on the aftertreatment technology performance. As a result, modern that the focus will be on advanced used. Against this, the report estimates diesels often outshine their gasoline diesel engines and upgrades to that the incremental cost of a hybrid equivalents not just on fuel economy, gasoline technology. Given the broadly powertrain of the type fitted to but on acceleration performance. If equivalent real-world fuel economy the Lexus RX400h is $7000-8000 recent trends continue as expected, this and CO2 emissions performance – approximately double the cost penalty performance gap relative to gasoline of diesels compared with gasoline of a fully compliant clean diesel. For may well increase further, banishing hybrids, there is little commercial smaller vehicles the report estimates once and for all the idea that diesels potential for the latter in Europe other that the cost penalty would be smaller sacrifice performance for fuel economy. than as image vehicles. for both powertrain types, but the Instead, many in Europe are looking advantage of diesel would remain. The rest of the world has beyond current product offerings It is interesting to note that, due to already decided to the prospect of hybridized diesel low taxation on fuel in the US, it will The Ricardo-UBS report identifies vehicles. In the US, however, the report be difficult for consumers to justify the US as the key battleground contends that the situation is still in purchasing fuel-efficient vehicles on for diesels and gasoline hybrids. It flux, with wide differences of opinion economic grounds alone. In Europe, appears certain that Japan will focus as to the relative future potential high fuel prices resulting from taxation on advanced gasoline technologies successes of hybrids and diesels. mean purchasing a diesel engine car and hybrids, while in Europe it appears has a straightforward economic logic,

“The current political and legislative climate in the US generally favours hybrids over diesel, particularly in California and the other CARB states, but the report argues that a shift in the direction of diesel is possible”

14 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 with the consumer “Perhaps the greatest advantage of diesel getting sufficient fuel savings to repay versus gasoline hybrids is cost.” the higher upfront purchase cost within a year or two. In the US, a consumer paying the full upfront cost of a either a clean diesel or a gasoline hybrid is unlikely to recoup the extra cost in fuel savings quickly. However, it is possible that perceived savings (every time the consumer fills up), consumer attitudes (preference for driving a more fuel-efficient vehicle) and automaker pricing decisions (taking some of the cost penalty in the margin, rather than passing it on to the consumer in full) will improve the prospects for fuel- demand for both powertrain types in gasoline hybrid. efficient vehicles. the US. Growth is predicted from the The pace of uptake is likely to depend current level of 800,000 (545,000 diesel on a multiplicity of factors and will be A duel with two winners and 255,000 hybrid) to 2.7 million units strongly influenced by fuel prices and The detailed market forecast included in 2012 (15 per cent market share). other macro-economic developments. in the report brings good news for Of this total, diesel sales (1.5 million) In this particular battleground, the proponents of both clean diesels are predicted to outstrip hybrids (1.2 therefore, it looks as if both low-carbon and gasoline hybrids. It argues that million) for the simple reason that powertrain technologies will emerge as the conditions are right for a boom in while both offer similar fuel economy, winners. Honda Civic hybrid (far left); Mercedes proving the diesel comes at a lower cost to the the durability of its Bluetec diesel models consumer: even with US compliance “Is diesel set to boom in the US?” is published to US consumers: full SCR NOx reduction technology included, the clean diesel’s by UBS in association with Ricardo plc. Copies system (right) will require in-service addition cost penalty versus a standard of the report may be downloaded from the of AdBlue reactant gasoline car is half that carried by a Ricardo and UBS web sites.

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 15 HDD emissions convergence

Heavy but clean: towards a unified goal Truck and off-highway vehicle makers are under unparalleled pressure to reduce emissions: by 2014, producers of heavy duty vehicles and engines will face some of the toughest global regulations yet seen. Jesse Crosse reports on how Ricardo is helping the HDD industry rise to this considerable challenge

he net is closing on heavy will not just be confined to the US: introduced gradually. In the US, Tier 4 duty diesel (HDD) emissions. by 2014, US Tier 4 and European off-road (NRMM or non-road mobile T In less than a decade from Stage 4 off-road standards, US 2010 machinery) recognises six groups now, permitted levels of NOx and highway standards and Euro VI HDD of engines and categorises them by particulates emitted from both on- and standards will have converged to drive power. The regulations will begin to off-highway vehicles and equipment heavy duty emissions down to an take effect from 2008 on engines up are set to drop by more than 90 per all-time low. to 56 kW; engines up to 130 kW will be cent. Yet these swingeing reductions All the new regulations will be regulated from 2011 and the largest

16 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 group – up to 560 kW – will face stricter NOx – the biggest challenge of a filling station infrastructure. controls from 2012. The so-called Tier As a world leader in diesel technology, In the future, the methods actually 4 final will be in place for all engines by Ricardo is heavily involved with used will vary, believes Ricardo project 2014. European Stage 3B and Stage 4 both on- and off-highway engines; director Andy Skipton-Carter. “It’s off-highway emissions are very similar. its extensive client list includes important to emphasise that any The definitive US 2010 standards for engine as well as complete vehicle solutions will include improvements to on-highway HDDs will be preceded manufacturers. In terms of emissions, both engine-out emissions as well as by a preliminary level in 2007. Euro VI particulates and NOx will be the most aftertreatment, “ he told RQ. “As yet, is likely to come in between 2012 and demanding when it comes to meeting there’s no clear path towards the best 2013. The European Commission will the future standards. Methods used to commercial solution for off-highway make a proposal towards the end of deal with these pollutants will include applications: a range of alternatives this year and is considering a number improved combustion and injection is currently being investigated, but of scenarios, the most severe of which systems, particulate filters and, finally, we do have until 2014 before the final will demand NOx levels equivalent to the addition of EGR and SCR (Selective regulations come into force.” US 2010 of 0.2 g/kWh; this represents a Catalyst Reduction) or a LNT (Lean A number of external factors, such reduction of 90 per cent compared NOx Trap) to tackle NOx. The SCR as packaging, will pose major to the Euro V level of 2 g/kWh. One solution requires the injection of a challenges in developing solutions, thing is clear, however: by 2014, urea solution (known commercially suggests Skipton-Carter. “While some ⁄ emissions from off-highway heavy as AdBlue), demanding additional The futuristic Freightliner is an duty diesels will be on a par with on- work not only in terms of engine example of a heavy truck that will be highway engines. development but also in the provision affected by future legislation

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 17 HDD emissions convergence

companies manufacture their own engines, many also buy from suppliers of standalone or loose engines. The engine manufacturer has ownership of the aftertreatment but his engine may be used in completely different machines with different packaging requirements for the aftertreatment. Loose engine manufacturers will find it difficult to separately certify every single variant: how the process will finally work will need to be thrashed out between manufacturers and legislators.” For manufacturers of off-highway machinery such as diggers and earth movers, packaging an SCR system or particulate filter will be a challenge. But truck makers will face similar packaging problems on-highway, requiring larger radiators for EGR cooling and The question of infrastructure is The steady trend of increasingly strict urea tanks for SCR. Robustness of significant too. “Some countries, emissions regulations will continue in systems will become an issue too. As Korea, for instance, prefer EGR,” Europe and the US an example, preventing a busy driver Such continues. “They simply cannot to reach Euro IV without any kind of filling up his urea tank with water will see that the development of a urea particulate filter or even an oxidation require diagnostic strategies such as infrastructure is feasible.” catalyst. It has done this using very the automatic de-rating of the engine. Ricardo’s experience in the field high pressure injection systems and of EGR is huge; nevertheless, the variable geometry turbocharging to DeNOx debate company still accepts that the control air/fuel ratios. There is much discussion as to whether technique does increase the amount EGR or NOx-aftertreatment is a more of particulate matter produced, a EuroV and VI: tougher and tougher still satisfactory solution, particularly when consequence of lowering the air-fuel Euro V is another step down in NOx to it comes to cost and functionality, notes ratio and reducing the amount of air 2g/kWh: it comes into force from 2008 Ricardo heavy duty diesel on-highway entering the engine by 15 – 20 per cent for new models or from 2009 for all chief engineer, Chris Such. at the Euro IV level. models, although tax incentives set by “There is a debate as to which is the the German authorities have already more cost-effective over the life of the Particulate matter prompted many manufacturers to vehicle,” he says. “The comparison Particulates can be dealt with using an market Euro V trucks well ahead of the depends largely on the application. oxidation catalyst or, more effectively, a implementation deadline. Long-haul trucks would be expected PM catalyst – an open diesel particulate “At the moment,” Such explains, to benefit from SCR in preference to filter whose effectiveness is between “Euro V is achieved only with SCR and EGR, but a road-test on Euro IV trucks 40 and 60 per cent. A closed DPF, such there are no EGR applications meeting in the UK showed that there is little as those used in light duty diesels or the regulation.” Scania has announced difference in overall operating costs.“ US07 heavy duty trucks, can reduce its intention to meet Euro V using EGR particulate emissions by up to 90 per but it is not in the market yet. “The cent. However, the closed main challenge in meeting Euro V DPF eventually blocks up with EGR will be fuel consumption,” with soot and has to be says Such. “We need to increase the regenerated, making amount of EGR at full load. At Euro IV, calibration and operation EGR levels are between 15 per cent a more and 18 per cent, whereas with Euro V complicated it rises to 25 per cent, compromising process. both fuel consumption and power.” For that Ricardo has been heavily involved reason, in developing Euro VI compliant heavy duty technologies. “We don’t know yet manufacturers whether Euro VI will drop to the lowest tend to stick with the level proposed,” Such explains. “There open type, and Ricardo may be an intermediate limit of around has already developed 50 per cent of Euro V, but the most engines using the PM likely scenario is that at some stage catalyst approach. Volvo, the NOx limit will drop to around 0.4 for its part, has managed g/kWh. That will be very challenging. Packaging an SCR system will “For particulates,” continues Such, be a challenge for designers of “the European Commission is keen off-highway machinery to see the introduction of closed DPF

18 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 filters. When Euro IV standards were will force the adoption of SCR in the will vary according to the amount established, the intention was to force European market.” of carbon the filter is storing at any the immediate use of DPFs by setting SCR is favoured in Europe over given moment. To compensate for particulate levels low, at 0.02 g/kWh, a Lean NOx catalyst, because the those effects we need OBD (on board but the manufacturers were able to impact on fuel consumption is less diagnostics) and sensors to continually avoid the complication of adding DPFs pronounced. In the US, the Lean NOx record variations over lifetime. These by using other methods. When it catalyst has been favoured, although engines are therefore complex and comes to Euro VI, however, it is almost the attitude to SCR appears to be sensitive.” certain that DPFs will be necessary, softening. In the Lean NOx process, reducing particulate emissions by a catalysts are not used; however, Off-highway: unique demands further 98 per cent.” the US 2010 limits will require SCR Off-highway test cycles are currently combined with EGR, the same steady state, but the new legislation Two major projects technology package as for Euro VI. introduces the NRTC (non-road Ricardo has been working on two The second project was carried out transient test cycle), explains Ricardo major projects focusing on Euro VI with the Association for Emissions chief engineer for off-highway heavy technology. The first is part-funded Control by Catalyst (AECC) to duty engines, Andy Banks. by the European Commission and demonstrate the potential for meeting “It is unique to the off-road industry has involved Ricardo working with a Euro V in heavy duty diesel engines and so differs from both the US on- number of engine and fuel injection (see box on page 20 for details of this road cycle and the European cycles. manufacturers. programme). It introduces cold start and ‘not-to- “We’ve been running a single exceed’ limits, both of which need to cylinder engine with a very advanced Common goals, common challenges be considered during the calibration fuel injection system capable of If, at last, it seems that the world’s HDD of the engine. Although not confirmed injection pressures up to 2,500 bar and emissions regulations are beginning to at this stage, we can expect to see on high levels of EGR,” explains Such. converge on a set of common goals, the board diagnostics legislation following “The fuel injection system is capable achievement of those goals will be far in the near future.” of as many as 17 injections per cycle, from straightforward. “The problems of As discussed above, the North although we have not needed to use running with high EGR levels are great. American Tier 4 itself is split into six anywhere near that number.” The heat reduction task performed by power levels from under 8 kW right The test engine has demonstrated the EGR cooler is very substantial and up to 560 kW. The estimated global that Ricardo can achieve around 1.0 g/ we expect the shape of trucks may well market for that engine power range kWh NOx engine-out emissions which, need to change because of the size and is over three million engines a year. considering Euro IV levels are set at 3.5 shape of heat exchangers,” explains Tier 4 will be phased in from 2008 and g/kWh, is very promising. Such. finalised by 2014, with a reduction from “If we assume Euro VI NOx limits will “Also, engineering a robust 3.0 g/kWh down to 0.4 g/kWh. There be set at 0.4 g/kWh, then we have to production version will be a challenge will be an interim level of 2.0 g/kWh achieve about 0.3 g/kWh to allow for because the level of EGR is dependent at around 2011 (roughly equivalent to production variations. So we still need on the differential pressure between Euro V) before reaching 0.4 g/kWh NOx a 70 to 80 per cent reduction from the intake and exhaust. With a DPF in the – which should be equivalent to Euro engine-out NOx level which we believe exhaust system, the exhaust pressure VI. The interim level is intended to ⁄

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 19 HDD emissions convergence

AECC demonstration programme

n 2002 Ricardo undertook a project European Transient Cycle (ETC) and Worldwide harmonised transient cycle with the Association for Emissions (WHTC) tests – NOx emissions for engine-out tailpipe IControl by Catalyst (AECC) to demonstrate the potential for meeting Euro V in heavy duty diesel engines. The net result was a reduction in NOx to 1.0 g/kWh on both ETC and ESC tests – figures which represent 50 per cent of the Euro V limit. Particulates were reduced to 11mg/kWh on the ETC tests and 7mg/kWh on the ESC test; less than half the Euro V limits. Particle numbers were cut by two orders of magnitude and there was no deterioration in the emissions performance after 1000 hours of accelerated ageing; equivalent to 250,000km operation. Following on from this success the AECC commissioned a subsequent programme to demonstrate the ETC and WHTC tests – PM emissions for engine-out and tailpipe performance of an integrated emissions control system on a modern, low-NOx engine capable of meeting Euro VI. The programme was also tasked with comparing methods for measuring particulate mass and numbers and providing data on European and world-harmonised transient and steady-state test procedures. In addition, it was also responsible for establishing not-to- exceed data for appropriate test points, providing data for comparing other relevant cycles including the world- harmonised off-road cycles. The test engine was a 6-cylinder 7.5- litre unit designed to meet US2007. It was equipped with a common rail fuel supply, a fixed geometry turbocharger, cooled lambda-feedback EGR; its PM and NOx (European steady-state cycle test) original particulate filter was replaced by an AECC system. Emissions control was by an oxidation catalyst, a catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with an ammonia slip catalyst. The control system chosen for SCR was a prototype airless urea dosing system. Despite the system not being fully optimised, the engine calibration remaining standard and there being no thermal management of cold starts, the results were impressive. NOx conversion was efficient at 86 per cent and 76 per cent over the European Test Cycle (ETC) and EU-composite world harmonised test cycle (WHTC), with tailpipe levels falling to 0.1 and 0.3 g/kWh respectively. PM conversion efficiency exceeded 99.5 per cent.

20 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 force the adoption of DPF technologies vehicle manufacturers and loose engine Future solutions for both on and off and, subsequently, NOx aftertreatment manufacturers.” highway are likely to require combinations for the final phase of Tier 4. of low emissions technology (as shown below left) “I think we will potentially see Variable valve actuation both SCR and LNT across the off- One of the more complex technologies (homogeneous charge compression road landscape especially on smaller under investigation for heavy duty ignition), which enables very low engines,” predicts Banks. “Anything engines is VVA (variable valve NOx and PM levels to be achieved greater than 56 kW will probably be actuation). There are a number of uses simultaneously. HCCI can only be equipped with a DPF, EGR and NOx for VVA, starting with engine braking used when the engine is running at aftertreatment for Tier 4 final.” through the manipulation of inlet and part load and VVA can help increase As with on-road trucks, one of the exhaust valve closing times. But the the potential operating range from a biggest challenges for off-highway ability to manipulate the exhaust valve previous maximum of 25 per cent load applications will be EGR cooling – simply timing provides an opportunity for to around 50 per cent. because most off-highway vehicles emissions management using internal move too slowly for heat exchangers EGR and for increasing exhaust gas Outlook to be effective. Another headache will temperature for DPF regeneration. Although there is a lot of work still to be the provision of multiple solutions Results indicate that internal EGR do in the field of regulated emissions, where an individual loose engine can be effective at intermediate much has been accomplished and type is used across different vehicle levels of NOx, although downsides Ricardo is confident of the various manufacturers, some of which have a include poorer transient response and routes it must take in order to resolve huge range of machinery. The likelihood, difficulty in controlling the precise the myriad problems associated with thinks Banks, “is that there will be distribution of returned gas. VVA future commercial vehicle emissions much more integration between both also provides an opportunity for HCCI regulations. But with the whole industry debate having swung sharply towards “There’s no silver bullet here. We will be concern over climate change, the next looking for a small percentage improvement major item on the Ricardo heavy duty diesel agenda will be that of CO2. here and a small percentage there. This is “We have spent the last 10 years the new challenge that we now face.” focusing on NOx and PM,” says Chris Such. “But now the difficulty will be maintaining emissions levels as fuel consumption goes down. There’s no silver bullet here. We will be looking for a small percentage improvement here and a small percentage there. This is the new challenge that we now face.”

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 21 RQ Interview – Professor Herbert Kohler

Professor Herbert Kohler is DaimlerChrysler’s chief environmental officer and is also responsible for group research and advanced engineering. Tony Lewin spoke to him at July’s London event to launch the micro-hybrid Smart and Al Gore’s Live Earth concert series, sponsored by Smart Sustainability supremo

What is the scope of your role at So you have responsibility for the Honda, for example, has said that it DaimlerChrysler, and what powers do company’s entire environmental wants to move towards a CO2 neutral you have? footprint, from all its activities at all supplier base. Is that a DaimlerChrysler I’m the head of the R&D department levels? policy too? for powertrain and vehicle concepts. Our motto is “Design for Environment” The question is whether it can possibly The scope is very clearly new product over the whole product lifecycle – from be CO2-free: I doubt this somewhat, but ideas, new drivetrains, new propulsion the design phase to production and it is our intention to work together with systems and emissions reduction, product use, and finally to waste environmentally friendly suppliers and mainly CO2. Our power is a deep know- disposal and recycling. to minimise the CO2 emissions. how of the specific technologies and preparing the future for car propulsion What about the suppliers to Do you give recommendations systems. DaimlerChrysler? Do you look at their to DaimlerChrysler’s product and environmental performance too? business planners? Are you responsible for manufacturing, We do look at that. The environmental No, it’s not recommendations: it’s for instance? ‘total’ of the supplier is one of the pre-development, in other words Yes – the advanced and environmental arguments in the supplier selection the concepts for products and aspects of manufacturing, and the process – technology and cost are also production processes. These are advanced engineering. important factors. checked and compared with those

22 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 in series production in order to be Could you give me an example of a factors do you take into account? prepared for the market. This isn’t a product that has been stopped, or the It’s the technology of course – the recommendation: it’s the first step in strategy changed on environmental engine, what kind of propulsion system, vehicle development. grounds? the material, the weight and whether There was some discussion after there should be a new exterior or new Would you, for instance, advise not Volkswagen launched the Bugatti interior, that kind of thing. to do a 12-cylinder engine but instead with the 16-cylinder engine. We asked have a general policy such as the ourselves whether this was the right Would you for instance seek to use downsizing of engines for greater direction to go, and we decided it natural or recycled fabrics in the efficiency? wasn’t. interior? It is one of our tasks to advise on Actually we do use natural and how to develop future vehicles and But then you went ahead with the renewable materials. In our new powertrains. Thus we have a decisive Mercedes SLR McLaren? C-Class for example 27 components influence on the product portfolio. Yes, but it doesn’t have a 16-cylinder are produced using renewable raw engine. It’s always a question of what’s materials. But we are also concerned Which is the most important: the important for total fuel consumption: with the HMI (human-machine products or the processes used to build these are not always such small niches interface) – how to use all the those products with? and you have to choose the optimum equipment, the phone, the iPods and so There was a time 20 years ago when we solution for the volume you are on. That’s a very intensive discussion were more focused on the production producing. right now. side, but now it’s running at a very high level so the focus is clearly back on the How far ahead do you look? What’s Your colleague Dr. Weber (head of products themselves. your planning horizon? R&D) has said that everything has It’s five to 10 years for series production changed since the new A-Class was Have there been any instances when vehicles. launched three years ago and the you have recommended a change micro-hybrid versions were kept of policy because it was damaging But you must be involved in decisions behind the curtain because there was the environmental footprint of the like fuel cell vehicles, which are much no demand for them. What, precisely, company? further away? has changed? This is always an intensive area of Yes, but if you look 10 years down the What has changed are the market debate with our series production road it takes you to 2017, and we have requirements and the customer focus. colleagues. It’s not just us deciding said that 2012 to 2015 is our timeframe It’s always a question of being on the this: it’s a collaboration with them right to bring fuel cell vehicles into the market with the right product at the from the beginning to get an optimised market. right time. If you look back to our first solution. exercise with smart 10 years ago, it So how sure are you about what the was rather difficult to introduce such a Would this be more on the production company will be building in 2015? concept and there was a lot of criticism. side than the model side? You can never be really sure, but we do But since that time everybody has It’s on both sides, but more on have a broad idea. begun to admire it, saying that it’s the product aspect. That’s the real exactly the car they’re waiting for. It’s challenge. When planning a new vehicle, what always a case of what technology is right for the market at a particular time.

“Technology does have additional costs: You say there was no demand for stop-start – but how can consumers you have to balance these carefully, demand it when it’s not available? otherwise you will be out of the market” Someone has to make the first move. That’s right, but it’s always the case that in the area of environment the expectation is that this will be offered without any additional cost. Technology does have additional costs: you have to balance these carefully, otherwise you will immediately be out of the market

Professor Dr. Herbert Kohler Prof. Kohler started out on his professional career in Daimler-Benz production in 1976. After working in development and sales, he took over the Body and Powertrain research unit in 2000 as senior vice president. In addition, he coordinates the entire research activities for the Mercedes The latest Smart has a Car Group, which includes Smart and micro-hybrid stop-start system Maybach.

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 23 Ricardo News

Dave Shemmans shakes hands with Sinotruk general manager, Mr. Cai Dong (left) and receives a gift from the company’s chairman, Mr. Ma Chunji (below)

said: “The successful completion of the WD615 engine programme with Ricardo has resulted in a significant improvement in performance as well as a reduction in emissions. We look forward to working with Ricardo as a strategic technology and engineering partner for product development as we develop our business both in China and overseas.” “Ricardo’s continued expansion in China, with this country’s high levels of industrial and export growth, represents an exciting period for Ricardo signs agreement our company, its employees and its shareholders,” commented Ricardo CEO Dave Shemmans. “Like Ricardo, with China’s Sinotruk Sinotruk has a long and proud icardo has concluded an agreement tractors, tippers, cargo trucks and history and shares our aspirations Rwith Sinotruk, China’s biggest heavy- other customised trucks such as for applying the latest technologies duty truck manufacturer, which will concrete mixers, cranes and garbage in the development of class-leading enable it to provide engineering support trucks. In addition to vehicles Sinotruk products. The success of the WD615 in the development of new products of also manufactures many of its own engine project has shown the potential the Chinese truck maker. The signing components, including diesel engines. for what I believe will be a long and ceremony took place at Sinotruk’s The company markets its products mutually beneficial relationship offices in Jinan, coinciding with an event in more than 50 countries worldwide between Ricardo and Sinotruk.” to celebrate the successful completion and over the past five years has of the upgrade of the company’s HAEP enjoyed sales growth of over 60 per WD615 engine which had been carried cent. Mr Ma Chunji, Chairman of out in collaboration with Ricardo. As a the Board of Sinotruk, attended the result of this project, the new engine re- ceremony, showing his great support engineered with Ricardo now meets the for the collaboration between the Euro 3 emissions certification required in two companies. Commenting China and has been up-rated to 400 hp. on the completion of the HAEP Founded in 1956, Sinotruk was WD615 engine programme China’s first as well as now its largest and signature of the framework heavy-duty truck manufacturer. The agreement with Ricardo, Mr Cai company’s core products include Dong, General Manager of Sinotruk,

Next-generation transmission research that the vehicle will be in demonstrable form by early December 2007. s a part of its efforts to pull piece price. Expressions of interest are Aforward advanced transmission invited from potential collaborative eDCTTM next-generation low cost, concepts, Ricardo is about to embark partners in this exciting programme. high efficiency DCT technology on a two-stage research programme The second stage of the programme which aims to demonstrate and eAMTTM next-generation actuation will see the development of a high develop the application of the technology efficiency DCT targeting a 7 per cent company’s intellectual property (IP) in The first part of the project focuses on increase in efficiency and a 20 to 25 two crucial areas for next-generation Ricardo’s eAMTTM concept, and will per cent reduction in cost compared transmission systems: linear drive see the existing production Easytronic with the benchmark VW DSG actuation technology for AMT systems AMT system of an Opel Corsa 1.2 transmission used in the Golf, while and dual dry clutch systems for DCTs. gasoline vehicle replaced with a offering equivalent functionality and The two stages of the programme single unit capable of clutch and gear driveability. The demonstrator vehicle will be carried out sequentially in a actuator control. The intention of this resulting from this work is expected to coordinated manner. It will utilise programme is to prove the reduced cost be completed in mid to late 2008. substantial background IP developed and improved driveability offered by the by Ricardo over the last four years linear drive concept over conventional For further information about that has demonstrated potential for brushed or brushless DC motor participation in these exciting significant improvements to fuel technology. Design activities are already research programmes, please contact economy and reductions in production nearing completion and it is anticipated [email protected].

24 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 New manufacturing Racing to16,000 rpm technology for transmissions The latest issue of Ricardo’s Software&CAE on-line newsletter high standards of reliability as well as provides some insights into the performance if they are to contribute to assistance provided to PETRONAS race success. in the up-rating of its FP1 engine. Competitive performance PETRONAS had been competing transmissions not only need to be in the World Superbike series since designed effectively and optimised 2003, but a set of changes to the to a high degree, they must also be regulations for the 2003 season manufactured to exceptionally precise enabled some competitors to use dimensions, with individual gears often 1000cc in-line 4 cylinder engines. needing to be ground to tolerances The company needed to think fast within just a few microns. A super- if its smaller 900 cc unit was to high frequency spindle for running remain competitive, and approached small diameter grinding wheels will, Ricardo. This ambitious challenge for example, enable gears and splines was tackled using Ricardo’s CAE with restrictive access to be produced. analysis tools, allowing the in-line The system will also enable gears to triple ultimately to rev safely to be cut from blanks where no tooling beyond 16,000 rpm. This exciting is available. The new Höfler unit will project, aimed at turning a compact complement Ricardo’s existing grinding racing motorcycle engine into a facilities which include an Oerlikon Opel giant killer, was presented in the 80 and a Reishauer 362. form of three papers at this year’s ue to an unprecedented increase “We are pleased to announce this SAE Congress. Din demand for its performance significant investment in our advanced These are transmission products, Ricardo has manufacturing capability”, said described in invested significantly to enhance the Mark Barge, Ricardo director of high the Q2/2007 precision gear grinding capability at the performance transmissions products. issue of UK Midlands Technical Centre. “Ricardo has built an enviable reputation Software & The need for precision manufacture in the design and manufacture of race- CAE of high performance transmissions winning transmission and driveline newsletter for applications ranging from Formula systems for the highest levels of (for more One and World Rally Championship to motorsport. This success relies upon information the endurance events such as Le Mans access to the latest manufacturing and see www. has never been greater. With almost design technologies. The addition of ricardo.com/ every aspect of motorsport engineering this advanced new gear grinding facility scae). seen as a potential means of gaining an demonstrates our commitment to this advantage on the circuit, competition highly competitive business, and to the transmissions must exhibit ultra- race success of our customers.”

New president for Ricardo, Inc

Former senior ventures and technology licences). is of crucial importance to Ricardo GM executive His most recent GM position was plc and it is essential therefore Dean Harlow as director, global planning for GM that we can attract the very best brings Powertrain, where amongst other talent to the senior team of our considerable achievements he led GM’s first global US subsidiary, Ricardo, Inc. Dean automotive hybrid programme and negotiated a Harlow brings with him a wealth of industry major transmission deal with Ford. international auto industry experience experience to Harlow has significant experience in both North America and Asia, his new role in Asian markets, having lived in together with a deep knowledge as president of Beijing and Shanghai, China, from of the latest developments in Ricardo, Inc. 1996 to 2000 while serving as GM powertrain technology and the type Before founding his own successful China vice president of new business of entrepreneurial spirit capable of automotive consulting business in development, chief technology officer taking Ricardo to the next level in this 2006, he spent over twenty years and planning director. In his new key market. I am confident that he will with General Motors in a variety of role Dean Harlow reports directly to rise to the challenge of delivering our capacities including engineering, Ricardo plc CEO, Dave Shemmans. strategic business objectives for the finance, planning and corporate / Commenting on this new senior Americas while improving the return business development (mergers and level appointment Dave Shemmans to Ricardo’s shareholders.” acquisitions, strategic alliances, joint said: “The North American market

RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 25 Ricardo News

Stunning first Le

Mans season for 908 HDi Peugeot Total, whose objective in contesting the world famous FAP diesels with advanced endurance classic was to gain valuable experience for its return in 2008. Following this success the two Ricardo transmissions 908 HDi FAPs, equipped with their ith wins in three out of the at Monza on April 15, where Nicolas advanced Ricardo transmission four Le Mans series events in Minassian and Marc Gene took first systems, claimed their first one-two W which they have competed, place, ahead of team mates Pedro finish at the Nürburgring 1000km race the 908 HDi FAP diesels of Team Peugeot Lamy and Stéphane Sarrazin in third on July 1. Victory went to the car of Total have proved a stunning success in place. Three weeks later at the Valencia Pedro Lamy/Stéphane Sarrazin, who their debut season. The massive torque Le Mans Series 1000km race on May enjoyed a practically trouble-free run of the endurance performance V12 diesel 6, Lamy and Sarrazin took first place. to finish with a two-lap advantage over provides possibly one of the greatest These first two competitive races the sister car of Marc Gene/Nicolas challenges in motorsports transmission provided the ideal preparation for Minassian. engineering: the Peugeot 908 HDi FAP the most gruelling endurance race “We congratulate Team Peugeot is equipped with an advanced bespoke challenge of all: the Le Mans 24 Hours, Total on its success in its first season gearbox designed by Ricardo to meet on 17-18 June. with the 908 HDi FAP diesel,” said this challenge. The selection of Ricardo Fourteen years after its memorable Mark Barge, Ricardo director of high as transmissions partner was perhaps one-two-three finish in the great French performance transmission systems. the least surprising aspect of this race in 1993, Peugeot’s return to the “We’re particularly proud that our collaboration: Ricardo was uniquely Le Mans 24 Hours could hardly have advanced bespoke transmission, experienced to design and develop such got off to a more successful start. The engineered specifically to meet the an advanced transmission, having been new 908 HDi FAP shared by Stéphane challenge of the extreme torque of responsible for the transmissions which Sarrazin, Sébastien Bourdais and team- the V12 diesel in an endurance racing powered Audi to five Le Mans 24 hrs mate Pedro Lamy took the chequered environment, has performed so well. victories in the previous seven years. flag at the end of the 24-hour race in We look forward to supporting Team The first race outing of Peugeot second place. The weekend proved Peugeot Total in the remaining races of Sport’s stunning 908 HDi diesel was particularly promising for Team the current season and into 2008.”

FIA Appoints Ricardo “The FIA is working closely with the company’s appointment as Technical automotive manufacturers to develop Consultant to the FIA: “We are proud he FIA announced on May 11 energy-efficient and environmentally to have been selected as a technology Tthat it has appointed Ricardo relevant regulation changes for the partner in this project. Formula One to provide technical support and future of Formula One” said FIA operates at the very pinnacle of advice on the development of future President Max Mosley. “Ricardo motor sport and has a significant role regulations in the FIA Formula One has a vast amount of experience to play in encouraging innovation World Championship. In particular, in automotive research and in fuel-efficient technologies. Such Ricardo will assist the FIA in the development and will be an invaluable innovation has the potential to consideration and application of addition to this process.” provide benefits to automakers, race energy-saving and environmentally Ricardo CEO Dave Shemmans teams and motoring consumers efficient technologies. also enthusiastically welcomed the alike.”

26 RICARDO QUARTERLY REVIEW • Q3, 2007 Exceed your expectations.

HP helps you not only achieve your goals, but exceed them. HP CAE solutions deliver optimal performance, unprecedented reliability, and collaboration with experienced partners. Innovation: HP develops integrated SMP server and DMP cluster solutions that ensure superior results for CAE applications. For example, Ricardo distributes HP’s HP-MPI library (beginning with VECTIS V3.1) which transparently selects the highest performance interconnect available in the cluster. This includes clusters with HP's new c-Class BladesSystems, a groundbreaking product that reduces energy consumption by dynamically adjusting power and cooling. Choice: Only HP offers the full range of industry-standard microprocessors, operating environments, middleware, interconnects, and integration services—ensuring the optimal solution for your CAE applications. Performance: The collaborative partnership between HP and Ricardo produces highly scalable and reliable clusters for exceptional VECTIS results—on time and on budget.

Free advice or to contact HP on optimizing your CAE solution: www.hp.com/go/optimize-CAE Partner Information: www.ricardo.com/

© 2007 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The only warranties for HP products and services are set forth in the express warranty statements accompanying such products and services. 'PSNVMB
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