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State of Florida Fall 2019 Report As Adopted by the Legislative Budget Commission September 12, 2019 Table of Contents The Outlook: Production and Development ................................................................................................ 3 Summary and Findings .................................................................................................................................. 7 Tier 1 Table – Critical Needs ....................................................................................................................... 21 Tier 2 Table – Critical Needs and Other High Priority Needs ...................................................................... 22 Tier 3 Table – Critical Needs, Other High Priority Needs, and Revenue Adjustments ................................ 23 Summary of Major Trust Funds .................................................................................................................. 24 Fiscal Strategies ........................................................................................................................................... 25 Significant Risks to the Forecast ................................................................................................................. 28 Potential Constitutional Issues ................................................................................................................... 34 Florida Economic Outlook ........................................................................................................................... 38 Florida Demographic Projections ................................................................................................................ 48 Revenue Projections ................................................................................................................................... 55 I. General Revenue Fund ......................................................................................................................... 55 A. Forecast Overview........................................................................................................................... 55 B. Article V Fees & Transfers ............................................................................................................... 55 C. Documentary Stamp Tax ................................................................................................................. 57 D. Highway Safety Fees ....................................................................................................................... 59 E. Indian Gaming Revenues ................................................................................................................. 59 F. Tobacco Tax and Surcharge ............................................................................................................ 60 II. Educational Enhancement Trust Fund, Lottery, and Slots .................................................................. 62 III. State School Trust Fund and Unclaimed Property ............................................................................. 65 IV. Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund ......................................................................................................... 66 V. State Transportation Trust Fund and Transportation Revenue ......................................................... 67 VI. Other Revenue Sources that Primarily Support Education ............................................................... 68 A. Ad Valorem Assessments (Property Tax Roll) ................................................................................. 68 B. Gross Receipts Tax and Communications Services Tax ................................................................... 69 C. Public Education Capital Outlay and Debt Service (PECO) Trust Fund ............................................ 70 Florida Debt Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 72 Key Budget Driver Worksheet – Critical Needs .......................................................................................... 77 1 | P a g e Key Budget Driver Worksheet – Other High Priority Needs ....................................................................... 78 Key Budget Drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 80 Critical Needs .......................................................................................................................................... 80 Pre K-12 Education (Drivers #1 - #3) ................................................................................................... 80 Higher Education (Drivers #4 & #5) ..................................................................................................... 84 Human Services (Drivers #6 - #9) ........................................................................................................ 86 Transportation and Economic Development (Driver #10)................................................................... 92 General Government (Drivers #11 & #12) ........................................................................................... 92 Administered Funds and Statewide Issues (Drivers #13 - #15) ........................................................... 93 Other High Priority Needs ....................................................................................................................... 95 Pre K-12 Education (Driver #16) .......................................................................................................... 95 Higher Education (Drivers #17 - #21) .................................................................................................. 95 Education Fixed Capital Outlay (Driver #22) ....................................................................................... 99 Human Services (Drivers #23 - #29) .................................................................................................. 101 Criminal Justice (Drivers #30 - #33) ................................................................................................... 105 Judicial Branch (Driver #34) .............................................................................................................. 109 Transportation and Economic Development (Drivers #35 - #38) ...................................................... 109 Natural Resources (Drivers #39 & #40) ............................................................................................. 113 General Government (Drivers #41 & #42) ......................................................................................... 122 Administered Funds & Statewide Issues (Drivers #43 & #44) ........................................................... 124 Tier 3 Adjustments to the General Revenue Fund.................................................................................... 127 Key Revenue Adjustments to the General Revenue Fund Worksheet ..................................................... 128 Key Revenue Adjustments to the General Revenue Fund ........................................................................ 129 Tax and Significant Fee Changes ....................................................................................................... 129 Trust Fund Transfers (GAA) ............................................................................................................... 130 2 | P a g e Long-Range Financial Outlook The Outlook: Production and Development What is the Outlook? In 2006, Florida voters adopted a constitutional amendment that requires the development of a Long-Range Financial Outlook, setting out recommended fiscal strategies for the state and its departments in order to assist the Legislature in making budget decisions. The Legislative Budget Commission is required to issue the Outlook by September 15th of each year. The 2019 Outlook is the 13th document developed in accordance with the provisions of article III, section 19(c)(1) of the Florida Constitution. Ultimately, the Outlook is a tool that provides an opportunity to both avoid future budget problems and maintain financial stability between state fiscal years. The Outlook accomplishes this by providing a longer-range picture of the state’s fiscal position that integrates projections of the major programs driving Florida’s annual budget requirements with the revenue estimates. In this regard, the budget projections primarily reflect current-law spending requirements. The Outlook does not purport to predict the overall funding levels of future state budgets or the final amount of funds to be allocated to the respective budget areas. This is because very few assumptions are made regarding future legislative policy decisions on discretionary spending, making this document simply a reasonable baseline. Estimated revenues and tax provisions are generally treated in the same way; however, a section was added for the first time in 2015 that shows the effects of continuing to make revenue adjustments similar in scope to those that have been made over the recent past. The Outlook also includes economic, demographic, and debt analyses to provide a framework for the financial projections and covers the upcoming three state fiscal years: in this version, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. It does this by using anticipated revenues and expenditures in the current
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