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Download 4Th Quarter 2006 F OURTH QUARTER 2006 Lion’s Gate INSIDE GRAPHS: that would solidify and expand British influence in Southeast Asia. In early 1819, he found the place: a deep har- bor, fresh water, plenty of timber, and • Graph 1: Capital Market strategically located on a critical trade Performance—page 2 route. Singapore (singa pura, Lion’s Gate, • Graph 2: Reuters/Jefferies in Sanskrit) would become the true CRB Futures Price Index — “jewel in the crown” of the British page2 Empire, the center not only of trade • Graph 3: Nonfinancial Cor- between Asia and Europe, but also the porate Business —page 3 military bastion that enabled the Royal • Graph 4: Earnings Expand, Navy to rule, uncontested, over the Multiples Contract— page 3 Indian and Pacific Oceans. Thomas Raffles chose well. • Graph 5: Obesity and Savings Singapore is an island 85 miles north — page 3 of the equator that sits at the base of • Graph 6: Foreign Ownership the Malay Peninsula, 400 miles of im- % of Total US Outstanding homas Raffles was penetrable mountains and jungle. By Securities—page 4 one of those extraor- the 1930s, more than half the world’s • Graph 7: US—China T dinary individuals who tin and most of the world’s rubber was Flows—page 4 made the British Empire the British produced there, all of which was trans- • Graph 8: Spot Oil Price— Empire. He joined the British East ported on a single-gauge railroad to its page 5 India Company in 1805 as a clerk, but terminus at Singapore, the world’s larg- • Graph 9: Balance on Current one with high ambitions for adventure. est port. The island commands the Acct—page 5 At the time, the Dutch East Indies Straits of Malacca, the most important Company had a monopoly on the • Graph 10: US LBO Deal riches of Southeast Asia, and while Volume—page 5 many in Britain dreamed of sup- • Graph 11: Global excess planting the Dutch, it was Raf- Liquidity—page 5 fles—a clerk in the employ of a • Graph 12: Share of World private company, with no military GDP—page 6 training or service—who led a se- • Table 1: Share of World ries of skirmishes that weakened GDP, Real, PPP Adjusted— and then evicted the Dutch in their page 6 key outpost of Java. Raffles knew that a strong, permanent British • Graph 13: The World in 2050—page 7 military presence in the region was necessary, and he petitioned the • Graph 14: Real GDP per Governor-General of India for Capita as a % of US Level— page 7 permission to lead an expedition to find and establish a suitable fortress 429 Santa Monica Blvd., Suite 500 Santa Monica CA 90401 (310) 393-6300 (310) 393-6200 Fax www.angelesadvisors.com PAGE 2 FOURTH QUARTER 2006 1 terrain, and a naval Capital Market Performance threat would likely be detected in plenty of time. The nearest REITS, 23.2% (potential) hostile navy US Bonds, 5.1% 5-Years Int'l. Equities, 15.0% was in Tokyo, 3,000 US Equities, 7.2% miles from Singapore. Since its open- ing in 1887, the Raffles REITS, 35.1% Hotel, still one of the US Bonds, 4.3% 1-Year Int'l. Equities, 26.3% great hotels of the world, had been the center of US Equities, 15.7% British social life on the island. Each Sunday REITS, 9.5% morning the crème of US Bonds, 1.2% society gathered at the 4Q06 Int'l. Equities, 10.4% hotel for brunch. It was US Equities, 7.1% another typically warm 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% morning in early Decem- ber of 1941 when ru- mors began circulating at the hotel that, incredibly, 550 miles to the north the trade route in the world, and one of only a handful of Japanese had landed in Malaysia. It was inconceivable, critical “chokepoints” on the globe for military planners not just to those gathered at the Raffles Hotel that (arguably even more vital than Gibraltar, Hormuz or morning but to virtually everyone around the world, Suez). that just 55 days later Singapore, the “Gibraltar of At an enormous cost (over £60mm), the Brit- Asia,” would fall to those same Japanese troops. It was ish constructed in 1938 the largest, most modern naval unimaginable to those sitting in the beautiful gardens of base in the world, with every amenity for its sailors the Raffles Hotel that warm Sunday morning that the (including 17 football fields). The only thing lacking at next four years would be a living hell for those who the Singapore Naval Base was a navy. survived, that the grandeur and glory of British Singa- Britain had a two-hemisphere empire but a pore would soon be erased for all time, the city left in one-hemisphere navy in 1938, so the Admiralty’s plan shambles and its residents impoverished for decades to in the event of war was to send its ships from South- come. ampton, around Africa, and on to Singapore. The plan Success is sustained, in military affairs and in assumed fair warning of an attack, which was not en- the financial markets, not by anticipating every contin- tirely unreasonable given that an assault down the Ma- gency, but by being alert to and preparing for the worst lay Peninsula was unimaginable through that impassable of them. The British planners at Whitehall and on the ground in Singapore were unprepared for 2 and, worse, complacent about the immi- nent threat they faced. Investors had Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index: All Commodities—Difference—Period to Period 1967-100 much to celebrate in 2006, with double- 40 40 digit returns for nearly all, and even if there is no obvious, immediate threat to 20 20 this bull market in 2007, the past is in- structive in understanding the present and helping to anticipate, or at least pre- 0 0 pare for, the future. So we’ll review 2006 in hopes of gaining some insight into -20 -20 2007 and beyond. quities were strong nearly -40 -40 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 everywhere around the globe in 2006, with China Courtesy: Merrill Lynch E 429 Santa Monica Blvd., Suite 500 Santa Monica CA 90401 (310) 393-6300 (310) 393-6200 Fax www.angelesadvisors.com MARKET COMMENTARY PAGE 3 leading the way, gaining 138%. Right behind was Na- Returns have been modest for this four-year period, mibia, up 126%, although we’re not entirely sure why. averaging 12.7% annually, but earnings growth has been Venezuela nearly doubled (+99%), despite avowing to the strongest on record (Graph 3). Earnings alone, and adopt the Cuban model of economic development. Oil then some, have propelled this bull market because, probably had something to do with its results, although uniquely, the rise has been accompanied by lower valua- oil didn’t help Saudi Arabia, the big loser in the world tions (Graph 4). last year, off more than 50%. esilient certainly characterizes the US economy, although remarkable might be more apt. In the past few years, 3 R we’ve seen the worst bear market since the 1930s, ter- Nonfinancial Corporate Business: rorist attacks on our soil, the largest and longest engage- Profits After Tax (NFCPATAX) ment of US troops since Vietnam, a trebling of the 1,000 price of oil, the largest trade deficit in over a century and a “collapse” in residential housing. Yet unemploy- 800 ment is near record lows, inflation seems well-contained 600 400 5 (Billions of Dollars) Obesity and Savings 200 14% 40 of Obese US AdultsPercent (%) 12% Percent of Obese US Adults 35 0 10% (right axis) 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 30 8% 25 Shaded areas indicate recessions as determined by the NBER. 6% 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org 4% 20 2% 15 0% 10 Personal Savings Rate (%) Rate Savings Personal -2% Personal Saving Rate 5 Despite the “collapse” of the housing markets (left axis) -4% across the English-speaking world, real estate posted its 0 fourth straight year of double-digit returns as the sup- ply/demand balance in commercial markets remained Dec-70 Dec-73 Dec-76 Dec-79 Dec-82 Dec-85 Dec-88 Dec-91 Dec-94 Dec-97 Dec-00 Dec-03 Dec-06 tight and investors embraced the favorable characteris- Note: Obese is defined as a Body Mass Index (IBM) greater than or equal to 30 tics of the asset class. Bonds, alas, failed to earn their Source: Center for Disease Control, Bureau of Economic Analysis coupon in the US, but at least showed a positive return, Graph Courtesy: Goldman Sachs unlike most commodity prices, which posted their larg- est declines in 30 years (Graph 2, pg 2). and the economy continues to hum along. After moder- For US stocks, 2006 was the fourth consecu- ating to a 2% growth rate in 3Q06, the economy grew tive year of gains, but it’s been an unusual bull market. at a 3.5% annual rate last quarter. Still, the imbalances are striking and, to our theme, interre- lated. Let’s consider the two sides of the 4 same coin: savings and debt. Earnings Expand, Multiples Contract Annualized Earnings Growth Between First Multiple Contraction Between First & Fourth The nation’s savings rate is and Fourth Year for Years Ending Year for Years Ending negative (we spend more than we earn), 1927, 1945, 1952,1985, 1998, and 2006 1927, 1945, 1952,1985, 1998, and 2006 and has been heading lower for 25 years.
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