Inner Peripheries: Beyond the Demographic Drift David Peónab, Edelmiro López-Iglesiasc, Xosé Martínezd a Corresponding author. [email protected] b Department of Financial Economics and Accounting, University of A Coruña c Department of Applied Economics, University of Santiago de Compostela d Department of Applied Economics II, University of A Coruña (UDC) Abstract Demographic ageing and depopulation of rural areas foster an economic decline that marginalize these territories and puts the access to basic services at risk. However, this situation is often a heritage from large migration processes in past decades and the demographic imbalances that left in consequence. Following a previous paper by two of us (Martínez and Peón, 2015), we use a statistical method to remove the demographic drift due to past migration. We apply it to the case of Galicia, to identify some inner peripheries that were able to moderate the process of ageing and depopulation dragged from the past. We characterize inter- and intra- county dynamics, and explore possible explanations for a better performance. Results show that most councils in recovery are head of counties of an intermediate size in terms of population. This would be in line with observed results about rurbanization across most of Europe (Eliasson et al., 2015). Keywords: Rural population drift, growth poles, spread and backwash effects, regional development, Galicia, demography JEL Classification: J11, R58, R12. 1 1. Introduction Economic authorities pursue to ensure social and territorial development and cohesion, such that the benefits of economic growth are widely shared. Nevertheless, the literature and statistical data continue to show a significant lag of most rural areas in terms of economic development and social well-being (Spoor, 2013; Akgün et al, 2015), which is reflected in their demographic trends (European Commission, 2013). There is, however, an increasing heterogeneity, with some rural areas performing much better than others and, in some cases, better than urban areas (Bryden and Munro, 2000). This view of the diversity of rural dynamics has replaced the traditional urban-rural dichotomy. Focusing on intra-rural divides is an interesting field of study, since it would help to design public policies by learning from experiences of successful rural areas (Rizzo, 2016). Here we consider the specific case of Galicia (Spain), though the case study might easily apply to other European regions with a similar background. Galicia represents an example of an aged region in demographic decline, resulting from an unbalanced demographic structure inherited from strong migration processes since the nineteenth century and especially in the period 1950-1975. In these regions, history may represent a heavy burden, particularly for rural areas, when they experienced large migration processes in the past. The consequences of population decline are often self-reinforcing, bringing about more population decline (Elshoff et al., 2014). Following a previous paper by two of us (Martínez and Peón, 2015), we use a statistical method to remove the demographic drift due to past migration. We apply it to the case of Galicia, to identify some municipalities that were able to moderate the process of ageing and depopulation dragged from the past. Thus, we observe that the generalized negative performance in terms of population growth hide some regions that are actually able to mitigate the drift. These councils, despite they are showing a bleak picture of an ongoing depopulation process inherited from the past, they hide an, at least partial, truly recovery. The main contribution of this paper, beyond the analysis at county level performed by Martinez and Peón (2015), is to describe the results within the Galician counties, while we explore for some potential explanations for out and underperformance of the different rural areas. Following the literature of regional development, we study the role 2 of growth poles for regional development (Perroux, 1955; Parr, 1999). We characterize inter- and intra- county dynamics, and explore possible explanations for a better performance. The results, for the case of Galicia, show that most municipalities in recovery are head of counties of an intermediate size in terms of population. This would be in line with observed results about rurbanization across most of Europe (Eliasson et al., 2015), a polarized development of the countryside in which large districts are depopulating, while certain areas, mainly around big- and mid-sized cities, exhibit a transformation of rural communities to communities with urban values and lifestyles. The structure of the article is as follows. Section 2 introduces the case of study: the region of Galicia, a paradigmatic example in Europe of a demographic decline in rural areas in the last decades. In Section 3 we analyse the historical causes behind this process: a demographic drift due to past migration. In Section 4 we use Martinez and Peón (2015)’s approach to remove the drift, and explore the results obtained. Section 5 is devoted to a characterization of the inter- and intra- county dynamics, following the literature of the role of growth poles for regional development. Finally, Section 6 concludes. 2. Recent demographic dynamics in Galicia: a depopulation process in rural councils continues in the last two decades (1991-2011) Galicia, in the North-West of the Iberian Peninsula, is one of the seventeen Autonomous Communities in Spain, with a population of 2.75 million inhabitants in about thirty thousand squared kilometers (an extension similar to that of Belgium). The lack of good communications to central Europe is probably one of the key reasons behind its historical lag in economic terms. In the last 100 years, especially since the mid- twentieth century, Galicia has lagged Spain in terms of population and GDP growth, consistently losing relative weight. The GDP per capita was by 2014 80% of the EU-28 average in PPS terms, down from 92.3% in 2009 (Xunta de Galicia, 2014). What makes Galicia an interesting case of study is that it represents a region in demographic decline. The average age of population is four years higher than that of the Spaniards and Europeans, as a result of a more unbalanced demographic structure, with 4 percentage points less of young people and 5 points more of population over 65 years 3 than Europe. The fertility rate is among the lowest in the world (1.07 children per woman), contributing to a strongly negative vegetative balance (-3.03 per thousand). The overall population stagnation was accompanied by a growing imbalance in its geographical distribution. Since the mid-twentieth century Galicia has experienced a late and abrupt agricultural sector decline, reducing its share in total employment from 70% to less than 5%. This intense sectoral restructuring resulted in a reduction of total employment, leading to rural-urban migration flows within the region (López Iglesias, 1995). Today, almost 70% of the population lives in 15% of the territory, known as the Eixo Atlántico –a line in the West that goes from North to the Portuguese border in the South, and includes the biggest cities of A Coruña and Vigo (about 300,000 inhabitants each) as well as the administrative capital, Santiago de Compostela –see Figure 1. Figure 1. Territorial distribución of the Galician population. Density by municipalities 2011 Source: Own elaboration. Data: INE, Census 2011 Figure 2 shows the population change of each municipality between 1991 to 2011 – what we denote DESPOB.9111. We may see a clear picture of an inner Galicia experiencing a strong depopulation process, with the more acute cases often related to municipalities in the mountain side –to the East and South. The population dynamics continue to favour the concentration of the Galician population in the Eixo Atlántico, with the exceptions being the Northern coastal area, the two inner capitals of province – Lugo and Ourense- and a few villages of an intermediate size. These would include the 4 most notable exceptions of O Barco and Verin, in the inner province of Ourense, as well as some municipalities in the surroundings of the capital of that province –Allariz and O Carballiño, among others). Figure 2. Population change of Galician municipalities, 1991-2011 Source: Own elaboration. Data: INE, Census 1991, 2011 In this situation, projections estimate a worst case scenario where Galicia might lose more than a million inhabitants, 38% of its current population, by year 2050 (Xunta de Galicia, 2013), what would totally empty rural areas. This performance is difficult to reverse, as it would not obey to continued negative migration flows, but to the negative vegetative balance these rural areas experience due to a demographic drift consequence of past migrations (López Iglesias, 2013). Such drift we intend to analyze in the next Section. 5 3. A ‘demographic drift’: migration during the 1950-1991 period as a conditioning of the recent population dynamics of rural municipalities Following Martinez and Peón (2015), we set the following hypothesis of study: the depopulation of rural municipalities in recent decades is due to the demographic structure set in early 1990s and this, on its turn, is a consequence of past migration in the period 1950-1991 –a variable we will denote EMIG50-91. Step 1 – Defining and characterizing EMIG50-91. From 1950 to 1975, most Galician municipalities experienced a massive emigration. Though this process ends after the 1970s crisis, due to a sudden cut of the number of migrants to Europe, part of that migration does not appear in the official statistics until the 1991 Census –reflected in a significant net migration officially recognized for the 1981-1991 decade (Fernández Leiceaga and López Iglesias, 2000). For such reason, we define the variable EMIG50-91 as the annualized percentage change between 1950 and 1991, proxy of the strong emigration observed in these four decades and, particularly, in the 1950-1975 period. Figure 3 shows the performance of such variable.