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Dallas-Fort Worth Texas, Msa 2 Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Market Insight Report

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Dallas-Fort Worth Texas, Msa 2 Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Market Insight Report MARKET INSIGHT REPORT FALL 2019 DALLAS-FORT WORTH TEXAS, MSA 2 DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO MARKET INSIGHT REPORT LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area (DFW) expansions. Uber is looking to make Dallas its largest hub gained 115,100 jobs YoY ended June 2019, equating to outside of its San Francisco headquarters. While the a gain of 3.1%. This was up from 2.4% a year prior and Dallas-Plano-Irving area has been accelerating at a faster was the metro’s strongest performance since 2015. economic pace than the Fort Worth-Arlington side, The DFW unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in June from at 3.5% versus 2.1%, Fort Worth has made some recent 3.8% one year ago and was 40 basis points below the notable announcements. Chip 1 Exchange, an industry- national rate. leading global distributor of electronic components and peripherals, moved their U.S. headquarters and Driving recent growth, particularly in Dallas, is the logistics operations from Southern California to Fort boom in professional and business services, a sector Worth. In addition, Aeromax Industries, Inc., a leading significant in size that includes accountants, architects, manufacturer of parts and assemblies for military aircraft, management analysts, computer system designers, is relocating its headquarters from Canoga Park, CA to and lawyers. The sector accounts for 647,200 employed the Fort Worth area. Opening in 2020, Stanley Black & persons and increased 4.8% YoY through June. Decker is growing its U.S. manufacturing operations with Announced in August, Uber will open an office with 400 a new plant in North Fort Worth. The 425,000-square- employees in downtown Dallas by year end, with plans foot manufacturing plant will create 500 new jobs in the to staff to 3,000 employees through a series of planned AllianceTexas development near Interstate 35W. DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA 7,675,425 EST. EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT 3,810,100 3,695,000 +1.8% ANNUAL GROWTH 3,609,400 3,507,600 3,413,800 3,298,400 DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA 3,186,100 3,098,900 3,066,200 3,019,600 3,018,400 2019 POPULATION 2,948,100 2,937,400 2,929,400 4,000,000 10.0% 3,500,000 8.0% EST. 3,000,000 6.0% $72,880 DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA 2,500,000 4.0% MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2,000,000 2.0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Total Employed Unemployment Rate 113.4 DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA Source: Bureau of Labor. All annual figures through June. COST OF LIVING INDEX U.S. Avg. = 100.0 DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO MARKET INSIGHT REPORT 3 DALLAS-PLANO-IRVING AVG. RENT $1,464 $886 RENTAL MARKET CLASS A CLASS B / C Dallas-Plano-Irving market rent increased by 1.3% during the second quarter 6.7% 4.4% of 2019, and the YoY gain was 3.5%, with average rent increasing from $1,168 CLASS A AVG. CLASS B / C AVG. in 2Q 2018 to $1,227 in 2Q 2019. This advance extended the market’s run VACANCY VACANCY of gains to 38 quarters, during which asking rents have advanced by a total of 50.8%. The average apartment vacancy rate was 5.8% in June, up 60 basis points YoY. Class A properties realized an overall 4.2% increase for average rent over the same period, rising from $1,405 to $1,464 over the year ended FORT WORTH-ARLINGTON June, while B / C properties netted a 4.4% gain over the same period, rising AVG. RENT to a metro average of $886 by mid-year 2019. $1,177 $813 Fort Worth-Arlington market rent increased by 1.7% during the second CLASS A CLASS B / C quarter of 2019, and the YoY gain was 5.0%, with average rent increasing from $964 in 2Q 2018 to $1,012 in 2Q 2019. This advance extended the market’s streak of gains to 37 quarters, during which asking rents have climbed by a total of 42.2%. The average apartment vacancy rate was 4.3% in June, up from 5.2% 3.2% 3.9% one year ago. Class A properties realized an overall 4.7% increase for CLASS A AVG. CLASS B / C AVG. VACANCY VACANCY average rent over the same period, rising from $1,124 to $1,177 over the year ended June, while B / C properties netted a 4.5% gain over the same period, rising to a metro average of $813 by mid-year 2019. DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA APARTMENT MARKET ASKING RENT COMPARISON AVERAGE RENT / VACANCY $2,000 $1,600 10.0% $1,500 9.0% $1,000 $1,400 $500 8.0% $1,200 $0 7.0% Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR $1,000 6.0% Source: Reis, 2Q 2019 5.0% $800 4.0% ASKING RENT PSF $3.00 $600 3.0% $2.00 $1.00 Dallas-Plano-Irving Average Rent Fort Worth-Arlington Average Rent $0.00 Dallas-Plano-Irving Average Vacancy Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR Fort Worth-Arlington Average Vacancy Source: Reis, 2Q 2019 Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Southwest U.S. Source: Reis, All annual figures year end, *Projected 4 DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT SUBMARKET CONSTRUCTION The city of Dallas’s most active apartment development areas are trendy urban redevelopment districts and include downtown Dallas, Uptown, and the emerging Deep Ellum neighborhood. Including these districts, 2,177 units were under construction in the Central area as a whole in August. The neighboring Oaklawn and East Dallas submarkets had a combined total of 2,961 apartment units under way. Overall the DFW’s most active AURA BLUFFVIEW submarkets are in Dallas’s northern suburbs, a leading area for corporate in-migration that has brought thousands of new jobs to Plano, Frisco, and In Northwest Dallas, a combined Richardson. With 4,630 market-rate units under way, the Plano / Allen / total of 1,164 market-rate McKinney submarket (including parts of Frisco) claims the highest under- apartments were under construction construction total. The Fort Worth-Arlington area will see 5,722 units complete as of June 2019. The largest of these construction in 2019, marking its highest annual total since 1999. developments, with 473 units, is the luxury Aura Bluffview complex For 2019, the Dallas area will see apartment inventory growth of 3.3%, at 3900 W. Northwest Highway. A while the Fort Worth area will net an increase of 2.2% to inventory. The Dallas November completion is expected. side of the metro will record a vacancy rate 190 basis points higher than the Trinsic Residential Group is the Fort Worth side by year end, at 6.1% as compared to 4.2%. developer. UNDER PLANNED / SUBMARKET COMPLETED CONSTRUCTION PROPOSED Garland 1,905 1,527 4,364 Southwest Dallas 1,027 384 767 Grand Prairie 1,000 745 1,795 North Irving 1,411 1,040 2,837 Far North 536 633 2,044 N White Rock 1,624 549 1,372 East Dallas 766 2,328 606 Richardson 2,246 871 2,404 Far Northwest 1,453 1,242 2,858 Carrolton / Addison / Coppell 1,235 1,291 558 Lewisville 945 2,802 3,056 Plano / Allen / McKinney 5,456 4,630 22,388 NW Denton County 3,310 1,058 4,723 Central Dallas 1,873 2,177 4,691 Northwest Fort Worth Region 2,008 1,624 3,882 Southwest Fort Worth Region 904 719 4,113 Northeast Fort Worth Region 619 1,152 3,551 Arlington 353 180 3,321 Source: Reis, 2Q 2019, *Completed Construction 1Q 2018 - 2Q 2019. DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT 5 Mid-Year Permit Volume PERMITS 11,957 17,287 MULTIFAMILY SINGLE FAMILY Multifamily permitting across Dallas-Fort Worth TOTAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS suggests the beginning of a pull-back by developers, DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO AREA with the mid-year total of 11,957 units permitted 70,000 running 16% below the same period one year 65,000 ago. Single-family housing permits were also off 60,000 55,000 37,670 10% from mid-year 2018. Developers appears 35,131 50,000 29,540 to be responding to apartment vacancy that is 30,283 45,000 expected to increase short-term, especially on the 40,000 22,898 Dallas side of the metro. 21,666 35,000 18,390 30,000 Fundamentals remain strong, however, and the 25,000 14,126 20,000 14,568 Dallas-Fort Worth metro population, now more 16,652 16,244 18,520 27,606 25,517 27,393 26,223 15,000 than 7.5 million, grew by nearly 132,000 people 10,000 from 2017 to 2018, marking a 1.8% increase. 5,000 This gain made DFW the fastest growing of any 0 metro area in the U.S. Over the past eight years, '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19* Dallas-Fort Worth has added more than 1 million Multifamily (5+ Units) Single Family (1-4 Units) people. Dallas-Plano-Irving includes Dallas, Collin, Denton and four other counties, and has Source: U.S. Census, *Through June, Multifamily Includes Condos a population of approximately 5.0 million, while Fort Worth-Arlington includes Tarrant, Johnson, Parker and three other counties and has DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA APARTMENT MARKET COMPLETIONS / NET ABSORPTION roughly 2.5 million people. 22,603 20,471 20,126 19,660 Sales volume for single-family housing across 17,624 16,701 DFW decreased 6.2% YoY in June from 10,384 16,605 14,677 14,231 14,226 13,955 transactions in June 2018 to 9,737 transactions 13,893 in June 2019.
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