Cleveland Abbe and American Meteorology, 1871-1901

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CLEVELAND ABBE AND AMERICAN METEOROLOGY, 1871-1901

BY EDMUND P. WILLIS AND WILLIAM H. HOOKE

A reexamination and reappraisal of Cleveland Abbe's role in the development of meteorological science and services is made.

"[to Abbe] we are indebted for the very existence of the Weather Bureau"

—BRIGADIER GENERAL WILLIAM B. HAZEN (testimony before Congress, 1886)

n 1871 Cleveland Abbe (1838-1916) took a risk and joined the U.S. Government s completely new weather service as its first chief meteorologist. This move took him from the well-established field of astronomy into what was then a developmental science. He brought to the endeavor scientific rigor and a far-reaching vision of worldwide scientific cooperation. From the outset he focused on two major scientific goals: the optimization of the weather service, and the study and advocacy of theoretical meteorology. As he tutored the neophytes at the headquarters in Washington, D.C., he symbolized for them what they might achieve as meteorologists (Reingold 1964). During the formative years of government weather services, he fostered, and in some respects embodied, the essential linkage between institutional and theoretical development (Fleming 1990). In that role he came to recognize the three dimensions of meteorology: forecasting, climatology, and physical theory. He brought together his insights in 1901. In a comprehensive scientific paper, published in the Monthly Weather Review (MWR), he argued against long-range weather forecasts based on Fig. I. Cleveland Abbe (1838-1916). empirical methodology, by which he meant forecasts

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC that are "generalizations based upon observations" In spite of a promising start, his focus on climatology without the benefit of physical theories (Abbe 1901). and his resistance to new scientific findings inhib- Instead, he proposed an integration of the basic ited the development of meteorology. In fact, with equations of physics and fluid dynamics, and laid Chancellor Bismarck's approval, the PMI offered no out the mathematical means by which this might be daily forecasting service into the 1870s (Bernhardt accomplished. Just over a century later we examine 2004). One observer has characterized British me- anew his organizational work and his contributions to teorology at the midcentury as being immature; its the progress of theoretical meteorology, and suggest "irregular far-spread surface was dotted with cultiva- a revised appreciation for his place in the history of tion chosen without discrimination and treated with meteorology. no common principle." Robert Fitzroy, the head of A number of recent studies review the evolution the meteorological department from 1854, "gained of weather services in Europe during the last half considerable authority" for his empirical predictions, of the nineteenth century. They describe develop- but criticism for his lack of theoretical principles ments in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and contributed to his suicide in 1865 (Anderson 2005; what was then Prussia that provided the context for Davis 1984). American efforts in the post-Civil War era. Read Across the Atlantic at the midcentury American in their entirety, with some oversimplification, one meteorology evolved unevenly as the work of the U.S. finds in Europe at the midcentury that "meteorology Army Medical Corps, the Smithsonian Institution, still rested on a fractured and incomplete theoretical and others who built observational networks and fo- foundation that tried vainly to explain and relate a cused on climatology. Theoretical works by Redfield, multitude of complicated and inter-dependent phe- Espy, Loomis, and Ferrel advanced the science, but the nomena" (Davis 1984). From that point the science, nation lacked an academic infrastructure dedicated initially embedded in astronomy, developed unevenly to the science of meteorology. Moreover, those theo- and empirically, inhibited by national politics and rists, unlike many of their European counterparts, internal squabbles. In Belgium, Adolphe Quetelet neither came from astronomy nor attained advanced had founded the Brussels Observatory in 1823, but he degrees in the sciences. Then in 1861 the Civil War "did not...become an astronomer; rather he became a temporarily disrupted progress in the subject. Thus, meteorologist." Then, instead of making a name for when Congress in 1870 mandated the formation of himself in meteorological theory, he transitioned into a national weather forecasting service it charged the sociology and statistics (Stigler 1999). In France the War Department with the responsibility of establish- Paris Observatory controlled meteorology from the ing an entirely new agency. The Secretary of War and midcentury until 1878. During that period the over- the Army Commander accepted the task reluctantly turn of governments, war, and internal staff tensions because it was outside their normal sphere. The job constrained progress. Notably the chief meteorolo- fell to the Signal Service, the peacetime successor to gist, Edme H. Marie-Davy, chafed under the thumb the Signal Corps (Fleming 2000). Brigadier General of Urbain Leverrier, the observatory's director (Davis Albert E. Myer, Chief Signal Officer (CSO), early in 1984). In Prussia, Heinrich Dove, the preeminent 1871 hired Abbe, and the two set up operations in meteorologist of the nineteenth century, took over Washington, D.C. Myer provided the manpower, the Prussian Meteorological Institute (PMI) in 1849. assigning junior officers and recruiting enlisted personnel. Abbe, by example and precept, established the scientific standards for the service. Myer made a fortunate choice; Abbe had studied astronomy under AFFILIATIONS: WILLIS—Alexandria, Virginia; HOOKE—American Franz Briinnow at the University of Michigan and Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C. spent two years as a supernumerary astronomer un- CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. William Hooke, Director, der Otto Struve at the Nicholas Central Observatory Atmospheric Policy Program, American Meteorological Society, in Pulkovo, Russia. He had then assumed a position 1120 G Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20005 E-mail: [email protected] as director of the Cincinnati Observatory where he conceived and managed a private meteorological The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the service for several months (Abbe 1955; Fleming 1990; table of contents. Humphreys 1919). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-3I5

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC dimension of modern meteorology at the outset. three days after issuing a set of probabilities the duty Predicting the weather required a widespread but officer in Washington compared the preceding fore- highly coordinated team of observers and forecasters. casts with the corresponding synopses of observed Organization was key. From early in 1871 Myer and weather conditions. For each geographic district Abbe applied themselves energetically to building a the verifying officer determined three times daily national reporting system. Abbe promptly initiated the the degree of fulfillment of the forecast for each of reporting and forecasting procedures. In developing the key elements: weather, temperature, wind, and the reporting protocols Abbe selected data-collecting pressure. During the first year of operation in 1871, instruments critical to the success of the new enter- Abbe and his staff verified 69% of the predictions. prise, and trained the Army's observer sergeants in The annual report apologized for the 31% that missed their use. They transmitted data from the field using the mark, citing the pressure of time as the cause. forms and protocols adapted from those that Abbe (The midnight observer reports reached Washington had developed while forecasting the weather from at 11:35 P.M. local time, and the forecaster had only Cincinnati, Ohio. The information arrived by tele- 90 minutes to release probabilities to the press.) In graph coded to maximize accuracy and minimize 1872 the indications officers (forecasters) improved the word count and charges. The reports piled up in a performance, enabling them to claim verification of rush at the appointed hours. A team of clerks recorded 76.8% of their predictions. By their calculations the and decoded the messages, then manually entered the number rose to 89.1% in 1883 then declined to 80.9% data onto weather maps. With those maps the forecast in 1887. The CSO blamed the turnover of experienced officer issued his predictions—an entirely empirical indications officers for the results after 1883 (CSO process (Monmonier 1999; Weber 1922). Abbe per- 1871, 1872, 1887). sonally issued the first official weather forecast on Abbe required the weather service to stay at the 19 February 1871. He continued forecasting alone for forefront of technology. He procured " [standard] and the first six months of 1871 while training additional ingeniously devised instruments . . . from Europe staff. At midyear 1871 three other forecasters joined the and from meteorologists in the [U.S.]." Over time action: two army lieutenants and a civilian professor, the instrument division at headquarters tested and Thompson B. Maury. By rotating the workload across a calibrated thousands of devices, and technicians team of forecasters, Abbe avoided flare-ups like that at even designed and built instruments. Self-registering the Paris Observatory in 1864 when Director Leverrier equipment came into use, and by the end of the sacked Marie-Davy for refusal to remain on duty all century the United States had 114 class I (automatic day until midnight (Davis 1984). recording) observation stations—five times the Abbe demanded precise language in the forecasts, number of the runner up, Austria (Bartholomew covering four key meteorological elements [weather 1899). Anticipating increased international coopera- (clouds and precipitation), temperature, wind direction in the 1880s, Abbe sought quality instruments tion, and barometric pressure] for each geographic calibrated to international standards. He turned to division. He directed that the first sentence of a prob- Wolcott Gibbs at Harvard and Arthur Wright at ability (the term in those days for "forecast") must Yale to design improved equipment. For compari- contain a verb in a future tense, for example, "the son purposes he ordered a barometer from Heinrich barometer will rise ..Moreover, he forbade the use Wild, director of the Nicholas Central Observatory of terms such as "mostly" and "possibly," requiring in Russia. From Germany he sought an anemometer instead explicit terminology describing expected and several types of hygrometers. Not to be outdone conditions (Abbe 1873). Three times daily the duty by Fitzroy and Marie-Davy, each of whom had in- forecaster broadcast a synopsis of prevailing weather vented a meteorological instrument, Abbe invented conditions nationwide, along with the "probabilities" an anemobarometer to test the effect of chimney and of weather in the next 24 hours (later extended to window drafts on barometers within an enclosed 36 hours). Sixty-odd copies of the weather charts space (CSO 1871, 1881, 1882, 1884a). went to Congress, the press, and various scientific The voluminous annual reports of the CSO make institutions. By 1872 Abbe regularly sent over 500 sets clear that Abbe provided scientific leadership for an ex- of the daily maps and bulletins overseas in exchange tensive organization. He excelled at setting standards, for data from foreign meteorologists (Abbe 1893b; demonstrating techniques, and teaching. He focused CSO 1871, 1872). on details, and as a perfectionist chose to do it himself As a means of ensuring quality performance rather than delegate. Note a case in point: he assumed Abbe insisted on verifying the predictions. Within responsibility for computing tables converting alti-

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC tudes of all observer stations to sea level equivalents. ning through Greenwich (CSO 1881,1884,1885; Abbe It took him 10 years to complete the task, in addition 1893b). to his other duties, when he could have delegated the project (Abbe 1893b, CSO 1884b). Nonetheless, the CLIMATOLOGY. Climatology, a second dimen- Signal Service grew rapidly, and at its height in the sion of meteorology, captured Abbe's attention early 1880s recruited, trained, and employed as observers on as he and the staff sought to establish physical over 450 sergeants and corporals, and incorporated baselines, a considerable empirical effort. They into the reporting system 300 civilian volunteers needed climatologies for historical perspective on from the defunct Smithsonian observer system. The rainfall, frosts, storm tracks, winds, auroras and geo- service had established 541 observation stations across magnetic storms, and upper-atmospheric conditions. the United States. It operated 3000 miles of noncom- In June 1871 Abbe requested meteorological data mercial government telegraph lines in addition to its from ocean observers and General Myer forwarded contract with Western Union. In Washington the staff the request to merchant ship owners and captains. prepared forecasts for 41 states and districts daily. In The Secretary of the Navy cooperated by ordering addition, 45 regional observers made local forecasts daily meteorological readings aboard all naval vessels. (CSO 1884b). With these maritime observations in hand Abbe wrote an article on North Atlantic storms, fog, and STANDARD TIME. Accuracy in forecasting de- ice conditions. In the same period he set in motion pended on the accurate timing of observations. At first a study of clouds using photography, and in 1872 weather observers used local time because no system wrote a report on "Methods of observing clouds." of standard time existed, either in the United States Responding to another congressional mandate in or abroad. Local time often meant railroad time, and 1872 the Service inaugurated water-level readings on that could vary as much as 20 minutes from the time the rivers and Abbe commenced flood predictions. proper to the local meridian. Abbe called for change, In 1873 he prepared "charts of statistics on storm fre- emphasizing the need for simultaneous readings by quency and climatic characteristics," which appeared Signal Service observers in order to construct accurate in the Statistical Atlas of the U.S. From that exercise charts and weather maps. In 1875, he recommended he first discovered the existence of a region of spe- to the president of the American Metrological Society cial storm frequency in Kansas and Nebraska (Abbe the establishment of a committee on standard time. 1874). He led a party to Pikes Peak in 1878 to observe The president appointed him chair. The American an eclipse of the sun. While there he gathered data Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) for a study in hygrometry, and studied the effect of and others supported the objective. Abbe's report in barometric pressure on psychrometer readings. The 1879 recommended the system of meridians that is following year he used weather charts to determine now in general use. Political support from the railroads the average direction and velocity of barometric lows, proved critical. Railroad dispatchers experienced huge average barometric pressure, the most frequent wind safety problems from inaccurate time. At a meeting direction before rainfall, and the frequency of rainfall in 1883 of the General Time Convention of railroad by the month. In short, he maintained a whirlwind officials, William F. Allen, the convention's secretary, of scientific inquiry (Abbe 1893b, CSO 1872, 1873, secured the adoption of a system of time meridians 1878, 1879). one hour apart across the country, anchored on the Greenwich prime meridian. The movement gained TRANSFER OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE. momentum and Abbe's approach "ultimately led to In order to disseminate American weather data more the adoption of Standard Time in the United States" effectively Abbe founded MWR in 1872. The French on 18 November 1883 (Bartky 2000; Galison 2003). had initiated the Bulletin Meteorologique Interna- From Abbe's perspective, however, the full potential for tionale a decade earlier for the same purpose. At the dynamical weather prediction would not be achieved same time he sought to collect and publish worldwide without standard time worldwide. With his prodding simultaneous weather observations. The Chief Signal Congress in 1882 passed a resolution written by Abbe Officer carried Abbe's proposal for international authorizing an international conference on standard cooperation in this project to the first International time. Abbe served as the Signal Service delegate to Congress of Meteorology at Vienna in 1873 and got the conference in 1884 in Washington. The conferees agreement. Weather data from most of the world's adopted in principle the system of hourly meridians collection agencies flowed into Washington. Two for use worldwide based on the prime meridian run- years later Abbe began publishing it in the Bulletin of

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC International Simultaneous Observations. He proudly meteorology. On a part-time basis he supervised called it "the finest piece of international co-operation "candidates for the M.S. degree." Five years later Johns in scientific work that the world had ever seen Hopkins University appointed him [adjunct] lecturer The finest perhaps, but not the first, because a cen- in meteorology (Humphreys 1919). tury earlier in Europe the Societas Meteorologica Palatina had a network of 30-odd observation sta- ABBE'S THEORETICAL EXPLORATIONS. tions sharing data (Cassidy 1985). Continuing his The Myer era at the Signal Service ended with international focus, Abbe exchanged and collected his death in 1880. Brigadier General W. B. Hazen worldwide books and scholarly writings on meteo- (1830-87) succeeded as CSO. Myer eschewed sci- rology to form a professional library. By 1887 the entific research; Hazen supported it, especially in collection had grown to 53,770 titles [most of which staffing. In 1882, with his approval, Abbe recruited are now at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric William Ferrel, by then a well-established geophysi- Administration's (NOAA's) main library] (CSO 1887). cist. Ferrel's "work was the basis of [Abbe's] 'prob- He published over 290 articles and books. The topics abilities' in Cincinnati and Washington . . ." (Abbe ranged across mathematics, climatology, geodesy, 1891). Ferrel had studied the effect of the Earth's solar heat, eclipses, auroras, standard time, storms, rotation on the general circulation of the atmosphere comets, locust migration, astronomy, barometric and oceans, and in 1858 postulated Ferrel's law (Ferrel reductions, instrumentation, tree growth, magnetic 1858). His joining the meteorological staff consider- observations, earthquakes, atmospheric electricity, ably enhanced the scientific program of the Signal clouds, rain, forecasting and verification, cold waves, Service. Two years later Abbe brought in Thomas frost and ice, biographical sketches, and most of all C. Mendenhall, a physicist at Ohio State University, meteorology (Humphreys 1919). Through his volu- who had organized the Ohio Weather Bureau. At minous correspondence and data sharing he kept the Signal Service Mendenhall established a physics the American weather service in the spotlight inter- laboratory for experimental investigation, while Abbe nationally. He stated later that "[t]he whole service retained responsibility for theoretical meteorology is recognized the world over as a model in respect (Abbe 1883). to thoroughness, accuracy and promptness." Piazzi Abbe's work in the third dimension of meteorology Smyth, Astronomer Royal of Scotland, wrote in 1883, occurred primarily in the "Study Room" (originally "the enormous scale of your Army Signaling Office his personal office). From 1871 the Study Room con- ... quite takes one's breath way in astonishment and stituted a laboratory for the development of theoretical admiration!!!" (Smyth 1883). The momentum in the meteorology. As weather data flowed in Abbe dealt weather service thus moved American meteorology with numerous analytical questions and began a from the periphery to the center of worldwide meteo- variety of studies on meteorological topics. He justified rological development where it remained to the end the research emphasis, noting that experience demon- of the century (Pallo 1995). strated "very forcibly the need of a special organization As American universities gradually built up the for the purpose of investigating the numerous ques- physical sciences in the late nineteenth century, gov- tions that arose in ... the daily work of the Service." ernment-sponsored science served as a senior part- The public asked "questions, sometimes involving ner in research and the economy. Pace setters such difficult points in meteorology . . . [that] demanded as the Smithsonian Institution, the U.S. Geological extensive research . . . ." In one area the emphasis on Survey, the Coast and Geodetic Survey, and the geomagnetic and electrical phenomena proved quite Army Medical Corps led the way (Dupree 1957). At practical; auroras and geomagnetic storms frequently a time when American universities did not recognize knocked out the early telegraph lines. He argued that meteorology as a separate science, the Signal Service "there was a general desire, both in and out of the offered "advanced in-service training," which might Service, that we should undertake such investigations be termed "America's first postgraduate program in into the laws of the motion of the atmosphere as would meteorology " (Koelsch 1996). In addition, Abbe sum up the advances that meteorology was steadily wrote articles urging schools to offer meteorology making through the labors of the numerous weather and disseminated curricula for the study of meteorol- bureaus of the world" (Abbe 1893b). ogy at both the secondary school and college levels. With these various initiatives underway, Abbe had Then in 1893 Columbian University (now George occasion to reflect on the nature of weather itself. In Washington University) inaugurated a graduate the first year of operation, after Abbe had inaugurated school and appointed Abbe [adjunct] professor of weather maps three times daily, he discovered an

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC empirical connection between cold waves and what theory. He understood that theoretically sound fore- he called northers flowing over Texas to the Gulf of casting required upper-air measurements beyond the Mexico. Based on empirical analysis he produced technological capabilities of his time, and beyond the his first formal meteorological finding. In 1871 he mathematical tools at hand; hence, his continued inter- published his "law of the motion of storms," which he est in balloon studies, mathematics, and fundamental originally discussed with Joseph Henry in 1867 and fluid dynamics. enunciated in 1869 at the Cincinnati Observatory: ABBE'S TRANSLATIONS. Abbe closely moni Local currents arising in this surface stratum of air tored scholarship in meteorology and played an feed the central area of condensation, which soon extraordinary role for several decades as a primary becomes hazy, and then cloudy until rain begins. conduit of information between the European and While the general progress of the storm-center will American research communities. Kevles (1979) be northeastward, yet it is evident that wherever the argues that during this period American physicists moistest air exists, there the condensation will take fell behind European physicists in part because of place most rapidly; there the barometer will also their lack of the necessary mathematical skills, and fall the most rapidly; and thither the storm will be because they did not keep abreast of European sci- strongest drawn (Abbe 1893b; CSO 1871). entific journals. No such constraints inhibited Abbe. He assiduously studied scientific articles, especially Abbe's conjecture resembles the exploratory, tenta- those in German in which he was fluent, and one may tive European finds of that era, for example, Dove's infer the direction of his thinking from the papers law of (wind) rotation in 1827, C. H. D. Buys Ballot's that he chose to translate and publish worldwide. At law relating pressure and wind in 1857, and R. H. a time when there was no concise treatise on dynami- Scott's studies in 1868 on the same subject (Davis cal meteorology, Abbe drew together collections of 1984). Beyond these empirical efforts, however, Abbe papers on the subject. Before 1917, Abbe's publica- operated on another level, using his knowledge of tions provided the only concentrated examination Ferrel's work of the 1850s in dynamical meteorol- of the subject available on either continent. His ogy. Employing those primitive but nonetheless First Collection of 10 scientific articles focused on theoretical principles, he claimed success in many the initial investigations of the role of water phase weather predictions such as the "second hurricane transformations in driving cloud development. He of August, 1871," at a time when he and the Signal included one of Ferrel's papers along with nine others Service lacked the experience to have constructed from Europe, all of which had a heavy mathematical empirical rules for such predictions. Through all of content (Abbe 1878). These papers examined two this Abbe treated meteorology as a complex of con- subjects: a) the dynamics of moist atmospheric concepts, process, and structure. Cannon (1978) defines vection in the vertical, which is the fundamental basis Abbe's approach as "Humboldtian science," a complex for the thermal theory of cyclones, and b) the dynami- including "astronomy, the physics of the earth and the cal theory of winds and currents on a rotating Earth. biology of the earth all viewed from a geographical In this and subsequent collections Abbe imposed his standpoint, with the goal of discovering quantitative own thinking implicitly by his selection of papers, mathematical connections..." and by the revealing commentary in his footnotes. Friedman (1989) states that by the end of the nine- He continued to promote dynamical meteorology and teenth century, "the dream of finding simple laws for underscored Ferrel's dynamical approach to weather predicting weather faded." He characterizes meteo- prediction. Abbe thought that Europeans paid too rologists of that period, who sought statistical patterns little attention to Ferrel's work. Although Fitzroy in rather than physical or dynamical insights to predict the United Kingdom knew of Ferrel's writing, French the weather, as disillusioned, and as developing a sense meteorologists remained unaware of it into the 1870s of hopelessness. Those maybe correct generalizations, (Davis 1984). For the most part, Abbe translated with but Abbe resists such a characterization. Though Abbe a light touch, but he sought to make the science more used empirical techniques to make daily forecasts, he definitive, or to describe the limitations of the papers, neither naively endorsed these as sufficient in them- especially where they tended to undermine Ferrel's selves, nor did he think that a diligent search would claim to primacy. Though younger, Abbe served in indeed reveal some simple, overarching law. Instead, many ways to bolster Ferrel's career and his stand- his writing and actions suggest that he realized from ing within the scientific community, serving as both the beginning the need for a comprehensive physical mentor and colleague (Kutzbach 1979).

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC Hazen died in 1887 and Brigadier General A. W. Collection, he said that the articles "are so important Greely (1844-1935) replaced him as CSO. Greely, and so little accessible to American readers . . . that formerly a junior officer at the Signal Service, had I have prepared full translations of them," hoping achieved fame as commander of the ill-fated Lady thereby to engage American scientists in studies then Franklin Bay Expedition in 1881-84 (Guttridge pursued "by the most successful European students." 2000). He sought to overhaul the Signal Service to He noted the requirement for close scientific atten- address criticisms generated by the Congressional tion in applying fundamental laws to "the superficial hearings of the Allison Commission (1886) that phenomena of nature." Citing the universal diffi- examined all of the government's scientific agencies culty in analyzing the "motions of the atmosphere," for potential efficiencies. He directed Abbe to report Abbe cheered the advances made through applying on the "practical applications of theoretical laws to thermodynamics and the study of fluid motions. He weather prediction" in order to blunt the charge that foresaw "a lasting superstructure of dynamic and the Signal Service engaged in unnecessary scientific rational deductive meteorology. But such work needs research. Abbe took up the challenge, assembling the co-operation of many minds" [italics added]. He data and notes that had "accumulated for a number then elaborated on the "minds" needed to solve the of years." From this he outlined a book on storm pre- very complex problem of atmospheric mechanics: diction, including chapters on "mechanical laws de- those of hydraulic engineers, astronomers, chemists, duced" and "empirical laws converted" (Abbe 1887). physicists, and mathematicians. Abbe concluded his The first fruits of that study appeared as an article advance notice saying, "May the present summary entitled "Recent progress in dynamic meteorology," [enlist] the co-operation of universities and their in the Smithsonian Report of 1888 (Abbe 1890b). patrons, professors and their students, in a work that A year later he produced a far more advanced text: promises results so important to human welfare" Preparatory Studies for Deductive Methods in Storm (Abbe 1890b). and Weather Predictions. Abbe sought to provide "an Before Abbe's Second Collection appeared events approximately complete rational system in meteo- overtook the weather organization. A few years after rology, a deductive or philosophical method, in which the Allison Commission hearings, Congress in 1891 the pertinent physical laws shall be followed out to transferred the weather service into the Department their conclusions . .." [italics added] (Abbe 1890a). of Agriculture. That action postponed any pos- In this book, Abbe treated friction and vortex mo- sible movement toward numerical forecasting. The tion, horizontal (turbulent) airflow, buoyant motion, Secretary of Agriculture Jeremiah Rusk brought in and the buoyant and horizontal motion of clouds, as astronomer and meteorologist Mark Harrington from well as the mechanics of storms. Thus, by 1890 Abbe the University of Michigan as director of the new U.S. had moved well beyond simple empirical approaches Weather Bureau. At a time when many thought that to state firmly that" [m] eteorology is essentially the climate had a direct bearing on health, Harrington application of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics "placed major emphasis on climate studies." Later on, to the atmosphere of the earth ..." Three years later however, Harrington called for a meteorologist who Abbe suggested that meteorological analysis "should could "lift the art of weather forecasting from its pres- be perfected by experimental work similar to that ent ptolemaic stage into the stage of true theory " done in the physical laboratories, and by mathemati- (Harrington 1895). Meanwhile, Rusk's successor, J. cal work similar to that done in astronomical insti- Sterling Morton, in 1893 investigated Harrington's tutions. It is high time that we began to pass from alleged mismanagement, further diverting the direc- the empiric to the philosophic methods . . ." (Abbe tor's attention from innovative theoretical research 1893c). Abbe propounded these views at a time in (Whitnah 1961). Morton also attacked Abbe. Morton which the young Norwegian and future meteorolo- had taken office with the Cleveland administration gist, Vilhelm Bjerknes, was still hoping to make a just before the Panic of 1893 and the ensuing depres- name in physics (Friedman 1989). sion. Budget cutting extended across all agencies. He In 1888 Abbe previewed a second set of translations let it be known that over 20 years Abbe had received of papers by European meteorologists, preponderantly $90,000 in compensation "for which the govern- German. He said that his research had been "almost ment had received back no adequate return." Morton wholly directed to the dynamical phenomena ... in demoted Abbe and reduced his salary, notifying the movements of the atmosphere," and that such him in writing that he had never earned it anyway questions were the most important to the "practical (Abbe 1955). Abbe's record of accomplishments and meteorologist." Speaking of the forthcoming Second great diligence clearly belied that judgment, and

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC Harrington defended Abbe. By then Abbe no longer (Abbe 1901). The article, first delivered that year at directed meteorological operations or research. In the AAAS in Denver, Colorado, carried the exposition the new Weather Bureau he continued to edit MWR well beyond the earlier work by Ferrel. Abbe's article and to advance his thinking on mathematically based proved to be remarkable first for its scientific vision, approaches to forecasting. Both Willis Moore and and second because almost no one since has cited it. Charles Marvin, subsequent directors of the Weather Saltzman (1967), in turn cited by Nebeker (1995), is Bureau, considered proven empirical methodology to an exception. By contrast, three years later, Bjerknes be adequate to the task (Nebeker 1995). made essentially the same case in an article widely Abbe soldiered on. He continued translating, and acclaimed as ushering in a new era in meteorology in 1893 his Second Collection appeared (Abbe 1893a). (Bjerknes 1904). He wrote without citing Abbe. The The selection and focus of these articles reveal an two papers merit comparison. First, their similari- advance in the field and in Abbe's own thinking since ties are as follows: Abbe's focus expressed in his title his First Collection. The central message here signaled "The physical basis of long-range weather forecasts" the scientific community's growing realization that closely resembles Bjerknes' title, "The problem of cyclones did not represent closed systems, but result- weather prediction, treated from the standpoint of ed from larger-scale circulation processes, in short, a mechanics and physics." Both cataloged the neces- three-dimensional fluid dynamical problem. sary equations of state, continuity, thermodynamics, Abbe's Third Collection contains mostly papers and motion. Both recognized that the equations of published prior to 1904, preceding important articles motion, not the thermodynamic equations, posed by Bjerknes (Abbe 1910). He incorporated papers on the greater challenge. Both recognized the need for the effect of the Earth's rotation on the motions of the upper-atmospheric observations. atmosphere and on thermodynamics. He included The papers differ substantially in four ways. First, articles on the theory of cyclones and on balloon Abbe recognized more fully the extreme technical measurements of the upper air. These papers describe challenge posed by initializing the equations of rapidly advancing European ideas with respect to the motion with observations. Bjerknes, writing three theory of cyclones. He looked ahead: years later, blandly and prematurely claimed to have at hand the technical means for handling the "the two memoirs by Margules . . . introduce us to equations. This variance in perspectives may have the great problems of the future, that is, the thermal derived in part from the success of the Wright broth- transformations of energy persistently going on in ers, leading Bjerknes to anticipate substantially more the atmosphere . ... It only remains for future stu- accessible upper-air data (Nebeker 1995). Second, the dents to combine the equations of thermodynamics papers differed in their consideration of approaches with those of hydrodynamics . . . that we may hope to solving the equations. Abbe provided far more will eventually be attained by the analysis of fields detail. He explicitly displayed the basic equations; he of force that is now being perfected by Bjerknes of wrote discursively, giving considerable background Christiania." [italics added] (Abbe 1910). for each equation; he explored the expansion of the solutions in terms of spherical harmonics; he consid- What motivated Abbe's selection of the papers in the ered geometric, graphical, and numerical techniques three collections? One might infer that his expressed as well; he pointed out that "a full knowledge of the view drove the choices; "meteorology can only be actual physical conditions at any initial moment is advanced ... by the devotion to it of the highest tal- not now practically obtainable " Previous efforts ent in mathematical and experimental physics . . ." at solving the problem of the general circulation had (Abbe 1893a). The papers he selected represented been oversimplified, assuming a dry and cloudless the best efforts of theoretical physicists at the time Earth, thus fatally separating the thermodynamic to describe motions of the atmosphere as a whole in from the hydrodynamic aspects of the problem. mathematical terms. And for many years the three Abbe argued that earlier authors offered over- collections provided the only concentrated examina- simplified, idealized representations of actual atmo- tion of dynamic meteorology. spheric conditions that did not apply to long-range forecasting. He emphasized that one cannot merely ABBE'S 1901 PAPER: "THE PHYSICAL examine weather charts empirically, but must at- BASIS OF LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORE- tack the problem "analytically and algebraically" in C ASTS." After nearly 30 years of pondering the sub- order to devise "auxiliary geometrical and graphical ject Abbe in 1901 published his theoretical synthesis methods" of solution. He considered the complexity

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC of analyzing atmospheric conditions as posing prob- Third, Abbe emphasized long-term forecasting. lems that are the "most difficult of solution of [any] in His years of work as an operational forecaster, and science." Abbe insisted that before completely solving his experience with minimally trained weather the equations of motion for the atmosphere, one must observers, convinced him that the daily forecast (or develop general theorems embodying essentially even the two- to three-day forecast) might best be correct ideas about atmospheric mechanics. He then pursued using an empirical approach, especially given discussed at length the lack of stationarity in atmo- the computational limitations of the time. Bjerknes, spheric flows, providing theoretical support for this however, with less practical experience, emphasized observed feature of atmospheric circulation. He also short-term forecasts of a few days, employing numeri- noted the need for upper-atmospheric data. Bjerknes cal computation. Abbe, on the other hand, considered wrote more tersely. He focused attention primarily dynamical equations as tools for forecasting the on solving the equations numerically. He suggested weather over a period of weeks, months, or even an an approach similar to those that have subsequently entire season, which in essence is a climatological evolved, but he treated the subject in a sketchy and or seasonal forecast. Abbe suggested the desirability general manner. In fact, at that time, neither Abbe nor of knowing whether the season would be especially Bjerknes "saw a way to make mathematical weather sunny or rainy or whether it would bring consider- forecasting a reality" (Gedzelman 1994). able "severe freezing weather." What a breathtaking

CLEVELAND ABBE (1838-191a l ••••

bbe grew up in New York City, in a prosperous merchant his experience at Pulkovo. Unfortunately, the organization Afamily descended from New England Puritans. He graduated lacked funding. He reacted optimistically, remembering that in 1857 from the Free Academy (now City College) where he meteorological conditions directly affect the work of astrono- excelled in mathematics and chemistry. Thereafter, for two mers. He won approval to report on and predict the weather, years he taught engineering at Michigan State University and which would satisfy scientific interest and benefit the public. studied astronomy with Franz Brunnow at the University of Weather forecasts could be generated at a minimal expense Michigan. When the Civil War broke out he attempted to and perhaps produce income. Thus, Abbe made the career enlist in the Union Army, but failed the vision test. During change that determined the rest of his professional life. the war years he worked in Cambridge, Abbe and the observatory board got Massachusetts, as an assistant to Benjamin short-term funding from the Cincinnati Gould, who was an astronomer and head of Chamber of Commerce. He enlisted the longitude department of the U.S. Coast 20 volunteer weather observers to report Survey. There he developed an interest in conditions. Western Union agreed to per- postgraduate study abroad and sought a posi- mit his observers to communicate without tion in Russia. Otto Struve, director of the charge. Those arrangements enabled Abbe Nicholas Central Observatory at Pulkovo, to commence forecasting the weather on near St. Petersburg, invited him to serve as I September 1869. Unfortunately, the fund- a supernumerary astronomer. Abbe arrived ing ran out and forecasts ceased in June 1870. there early in 1865. Struve set him to reduc- Lacking further budget commitments, Abbe ing the astronomical observations made in returned to New York. Nonetheless, he the eighteenth century by Astronomer Royal had demonstrated the viability of weather James Bradley in Greenwich, England. While forecasting using available technology. Thus at Pulkovo he acquired fluency in German, experienced, he was ready when Congress the working language of the observatory staff. His exposure mandated the formation of a national storm warning system. to the German culture and scientific methodology left him well He interviewed in Washington and joined the government as prepared and enthusiastic for a career in astronomy. its chief meteorologist in January 1871. He remained with the After two years at Pulkovo Abbe returned home. In May weather service for the next 45 years. 1867 Simon Newcomb at the Naval Observatory in Washington In 1912 the Royal Meteorological Society presented Abbe hired him to make computations for the Nautical Almanac. with the Symons Memorial Gold Medal, citing his contribution Through an acquaintance, whom he met aboard the ship on "to instrumental, statistical, dynamical, and thermodynamical his return from Europe, he learned of an opening for director meteorology and forecasting." Upon Abbe's death in 1916, at the Cincinnati Observatory. He realized his fervent goal Ernest Gold in London wrote, "To us in Europe he was the when the Cincinnati Astronomical Society hired him to begin most outstanding figure in American meteorology since Ferrel work in June 1868. Eager to excel, Abbe drew up a far-reaching and there is no student of the dynamics of the atmosphere who plan for a full program of astronomical endeavor, reflecting is not under a great debt to him."

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC vision for 1901! He rightly concluded "we must not his views on atmospheric prediction as a problem in expect to realize these hopes in this generation." And physics. On that occasion, Abbe introduced Bjerknes so, at the dawn of the twentieth century, Abbe clearly to Robert S. Woodward, astronomer-mathematician recognized the three dimensions to the work of me- and president of the Carnegie Institution of Washing- teorologists: forecasting, climatology, and physical ton. Woodward later funded a full-time assistant for theory. He wove them tightly together throughout the Bjerknes, thus helping launch "the father of modern fabric of the paper, reflecting his accumulated, evolv- meteorology" on a stellar career (Friedman 1989). This ing, enriched perspective of the previous 30 years, and typified Abbe's self-effacing style and "his never-fail- he grounded the article solidly in the mathematical ing willingness to help everyone who came to him for and physical fundamentals, while at the same time information or advice ..." (Humphreys 1919). In this realizing the mathematical difficulties. way, Abbe played his part as a facilitator, not merely Finally, Abbe's emphasis on long-range forecasting promoting the meteorological community across led him to a separate global vision in this paper, a view continents, but across generations. not even mentioned by Bjerknes in 1904: the notion that regional climate variations propagated their ef- CONCLUSIONS. For most of 30 years Cleveland fects worldwide. This arose from Abbes empirical Abbe served as initiator, scientific watchdog, and study of droughts and famine in India in 1896 and theorizer at the Weather Bureau. He set a masterful 1899, which were the worst in his view since 1769. He example from his forecasting methodology to his recognized that one could attribute these droughts professional standards, his voracious reading habits, and associated crop failures not only to conditions and his voluminous correspondence with other sci- in Tibet, but also to the southeast trade winds of entists. Men at headquarters remembered that Abbe the Indian Ocean, because they both affected the made the rounds every day and almost always threw monsoons. He pointed out that the equator does not down a new intellectual challenge. In this period he divide the Earth into "symmetrical systems of wind had an impact on the weather service of the United in the northern and southern hemispheres." He then States equal to or greater than that which any of his proclaimed a most important insight resulting from European contemporaries had on their meteoro- this "radical" view of the "general circulation of the logical services. His monumental effort to translate atmosphere": conditions in the southern Indian and publish articles key to dynamic meteorology Ocean in March affect India four months later and accelerated and aided international progress toward Japan six months later. Those conditions may affect introducing theoretical principles into the forecast- central Africa or Australia during the entire winter ing process. His remarkable paper of 1901 drew season in the Southern Hemisphere. He concluded together the theory and the mathematics necessary that the "great disturbance that starts annually in for numerical forecasting. Friedman (1989) attributes the Orient" affects North America and Europe in to Bjerknes the vision of meteorology as a problem one to three years. Much of the discussion in the in physics. For close to 30 years prior to Bjerknes' paper makes it clear that Abbe then envisioned that work, however, Abbe understood and propounded this evolution of seasonal weather patterns could be the necessity of applying physical laws to the analysis predicted by theoretical analysis. Thus, Abbe ranks of atmospheric data. Kutzbach (1979) singles out the among the first to recognize the global consequences thermal theory of cyclones as the key scientific ad- of what came to be known decades later as the El Nino vance of this period. Abbe continuously contributed phenomenon (Walker 1924). to international scientific dialog on that concept. Significantly, Abbe did not view or treat Bjerknes as Nebeker (1995) postulates as the most important a competitor, but as precisely the kind of young scholar meteorological achievement of the twentieth century he hoped to attract to meteorology. Abbe appreci- the integration of the three dimensions of climatol- ated that Bjerknes' circulation theorem simplified the ogy, forecasting, and theoretical meteorology. Abbe mathematics in many situations of interest (Abbe 1911). comprehended that intersection well before it became Abbe's relationship with Bjerknes underscores this fashionable. From a twenty-first-century vantage assessment, and squares with his mission to promote point his 1901 paper seems thoughtful and prescient. the greater good. He solicited an article from Bjerknes At his best Abbe stood tall among the pioneers of me- for MWR, and shared upper-air data with him. He teorological science. In simple fact, for these 30 years welcomed Bjerknes to the United States in 1905, and Abbe marched at the vanguard of the development of arranged speaking engagements for him in Baltimore, modern meteorology as theorizer, integrator, facilita- Maryland, and Washington, where he could expound tor, and public servant.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. Our thanks for generous , 1911: Meteorology. 11th ed. Encyclopaedia Britan- assistance, advice, and encouragement to Karl-Heinz nica. 264-291. Bernhardt (Leibniz-Sozietat e.V.), Marjorie H. Ciarlante Abbe, T., 1955: Professor Abbe and the Isobars. Vantage (National Archives), James R. Fleming (Colby College), Press, 259 pp. Allen R. Greenberg (NOAA Ocean Service), Gregory T. Allison Commission, 1886: Testimony before the Joint Huber (Cincinnati Observatory), James Igoe (NAS/NRC Commission to Consider the Present Organizations Library), Mark Rothenberg (Joseph Henry Papers), Albert of the Signal Service, Geological Survey, Coast and E. Theberge, Jr (NOAA Library), John Ventre (Cincinnati Geodetic Survey, and the Hydrographic Office of the Observatory) and our anonymous referees. Navy Department, with a View to Secure Greater Efficiency and Economy of Administration. U.S. Congress, Senate Misc. Doc. 82, 1104 pp. REFERENCES Anderson, K., 2005: Predicting the Weather: Victorians Abbe, C., 1873: Rules for the preparation of synopses and the Science of Meteorology. University of Chicago and probabilities. Annual Report of the Chief Signal Press, 376 pp. Officer, Government Printing Office, 379-383 Bartholomew, J. G., 1899: Appendix. Atlas of Meteorol- , 1874: U.S. Signal Service chart showing the fre- ogy, Edinburgh Geographical Institute, i-iv. quency of storm centres; Number of storm centres Bartky, I. R., 2000: Selling the True Time: Nineteenth- passing over each point deduced from the average of Century Timekeeping in America. Stanford University the two years March 1871 to February 1873 inclusive. Press, 310 pp. Statistical Atlas of the United States—Ninth Census, Bernhardt, K.-H., 2004: Heinrich Wilhelm Dove's posi- U.S. Census Office, plate VI. tion in the history of meteorology of the 19th cen- , 1878: Short memoirs on meteorological subjects. tury. Preprints, Conffrom Beaufort to Bjerknes and Annual Report: 1877, Smithsonian Institution, Beyond: Critical Perspectives on the History of Meteo- 376-478. rology, Polling, Germany, International Commission , 1883: Abbe to CSO, Nov. 27, 1883. Letter Book, on the History of Meteorology. [Available online at Vol. 4, Signal Service, 490 pp. www.meteohistory.org/2004polling_preprints.] , 1887: Monthly report (Sept.-Oct.). Letter Book, Bjerknes, V., 1904: Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, Vol. 5, Signal Service, 392 pp. betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der , 1890a: Preparatory studies for deductive methods Physik. Meteor. Z., 21,1-7. [Available online in English in storm and weather predictions. Annual Report of atwww.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/bjerknes.html.] the Chief Signal Officer: 1889, Government Printing Cannon, S. F., 1978: Science in Culture: The Early Office, Appendix 15, 165 pp. Victorian Period. Dawson, 296 pp. , 1890b: Recent progress in dynamic meteorol- Cassidy, D. C., 1985: Meteorology in Mannheim: The ogy. Annual Report: 1888, Smithsonian Institution, Palatine Meteorological Society, 1780-1795. Sudhoffs 355-424. Archiv., 69, 8-25. , 1891: Ferrel's influence in the Signal Office. Amer. CSO, 1871: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, Meteor. J., 8, 342-348. 166 pp. , 1893a: The Mechanics of the Earth's Atmosphere: , 1872: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, A Collection of Translations. Miscellaneous Collec- 292 pp. tions, No. 843, Smithsonian Institution, 324 pp. , 1873: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, , 1893b: The meteorological work of the U.S. Signal 1109 pp. Service, 1870-1891. Rep. of the Chicago Meteorologi- , 1878: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, cal Congress, Part II, 1-53. 679 pp. , 1893c: The needs of meteorology. Amer. Meteor. , 1879: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, J., 9, 560-562. 782 pp. , 1901: The physical basis of long-range weather , 1881: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 29, 551-561. [Available 1287 pp. online at http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/029/ , 1882: Annual Report. Government Printing Office, mwr-029-12-0551c.pdf; and at www.ametsoc.org/ 973 pp. atmospolicy/index.html.] , 1884a: Annual Report. Government Printing , 1910: The Mechanics of the Earth's Atmosphere: A Col- Office, 719 pp. lection of Translations: Third Collection. Miscellaneous , 1884b: History of Signal Service. Government Collections, No. 51, Smithsonian Institution, 617 pp. Printing Office, 39 pp.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/03/21 10:15 PM UTC , 1885: Annual Report. Vol. 1, Government Printing Guttridge, L. F., 2000: Ghosts of Cape Sabine: The Har- Office, 609 pp. rowing True Story of the Greely Expedition. G. P. , 1887: Annual Report. Vol. 1, Government Printing Putnam's Sons, 354 pp. Office, 361 pp. Harrington, M. W., 1895: The value of weather forecasts Davis, J. L., 1984: Weather forecasting and the develop- to agriculture and inland commerce. Rev. Rev., 12, ment of meteorological theory at the Paris Observa- 303-305. tory, 1853-1878. Ann. Sci., 41, 359-382. Humphreys, W. J., 1919: Biographical memoir of Dupree, A. H., 1957: Science in the Federal Government: Cleveland Abbe. Vol. VIII, Biographical Memoirs, A History of Politics and Activities to 1940. Harvard National Academy of Sciences, 469-508. University Press, 460 pp. Kevles, D. J., 1979: The Physicists: The History of a Ferrel, W., 1858: The influence of the Earth's rotation Scientific Community in Modern America. Vintage upon the relative motion of bodies near its surface. Books, 489 pp. Astron. J., 5, 97-100. Koelsch, W. A., 1996: From geo- to physical science: Me- Fleming, J. R., 1990: Meteorology in America, 1800-1870. teorology and the American University, 1919-1945. Johns Hopkins University Press, 264 pp. Historical Essays on Meteorology, 1919-1995, J. R. , 2000: Storms, strikes, and surveillance: The U.S. Fleming, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 511-540. Army Signal Office, 1861-1891. Hist. Stud. Phys. Sci., Kutzbach, G., 1979: The Thermal Theory of Cyclones: A 30,315-332. History of Meteorological Thought in the Nineteenth Friedman, R. M., 1989: Appropriating the Weather: Century. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 255 pp. Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a Modern Monmonier, M., 1999: Air Apparent: How Meteorologists Meteorology. Cornell University Press, 251 pp. Learned to Map, Predict, and Dramatize Weather. Galison, P., 2003: Einstein's Clocks, Poincares Maps: University of Chicago Press, 309 pp. Empires of Time. Norton, 389 pp. Nebeker, F., 1995: Calculating the Weather: Meteorology Gedzelman, S. D., 1994: Chaos rules. Weatherwise, 47, in the 20th Century. Academic Press, 255 pp. 21-26. Pallo, G., 1995: Deutsch-ungarische Beziehungen in den Naturwissenschaften im 20 Jahrhundert. Technologi- etransfer und Wissenschaftsaustausch zwischen JJn- Mid-Latitude garn und Deutschland, H. Fischer and F. Szabadvary, Weather Systems Eds., Oldenbourg Verlag, 273-289. by T.N. Carlson Reingold, N., 1964: Cleveland Abbe at Pulkowa: Theory and practice in the nineteenth century physical sciences. Arch. Int. Hist. Sci., 17, 133-147. Mid-Latitude Weather Sys- Saltzman, B., 1967: Meteorology: A brief history. The tems is the first text to make Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences and Astroge- extensive use of conventional ology, R. W. Fairbridge, Ed., Encyclopedia of Earth weather charts and equations Sciences Series, Vol. II, Reinhold, 583-591. to fully illustrate the behavior and evolution of weather pat- Smyth, C. P., 1883: Papers of Cleveland Abbe, General terns. Correspondence, 1850-1916. Library of Congress, Presenting a fusion between the mathematical and Container 8. descriptive fields of meteorology and integrated cover- Stigler, S. M., 1999: Statistics on the Table: The History age of synoptic and dynamic approaches, Mid-Latitude of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Harvard Uni- Weather Systems provides students with an invaluable versity Press, 488 pp. course text and reference source to gain an unclouded Walker, G. T., 1924: Correlation in seasonal variations appreciation of the underlying processes and behavior of of the weather. IX. A further study of world weather. mid-latitude weather patterns. Mem. Ind. Meteor. Dep., 24, 275-332.

Mid-Latitude Weather Systems is available for $52/list, $42/AMS Weber, G. A., 1922: The Weather Bureau: Its History, members, or $32/students, by sending prepaid orders to: Order De- Activities and Organization. Institute for Government partment, AMS, 45 Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02108-3693. Please Research, Monogr. No. 9, Appleton, 87 pp. make checks payable to the American Meteorological Society, or call Whitnah, D. R., 1961: A History of the United States 617-227-2425 to order by phone (Mastercard, VISA, and American Weather Bureau. University of Illinois Press, Express accepted). 267 pp.

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