Programmatic Impact Evaluation in the Energy Sector in Kosovo Final Report
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PROGRAMMATIC IMPACT EVALUATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN KOSOVO FINAL REPORT September 6, 2012 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Mendez England and Associates PROGRAMMATIC IMPACT EVALUATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN KOSOVO FINAL REPORT Prepared under Task Order N o: AID-167-TO-12-00002 under the Evaluation Indefinite Quantity Contract, No: RAN-I-00-09-00018 Submitted to: USAID/Kosovo Submitted by: Arvid Kruze (Team Leader) Richard Tomiak (Team Member) Eun Joo Yi (Team Member) Contractor: Mendez England & Associates 4300 Montgomery Avenue, Suite 103 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301- 652 -4334 www.mendezengland.com DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The evaluation team would like to acknowledge the kind assistance granted to them by the staff of the USAID Mission in Kosovo. Further, we wish to tha nk all stakeholders in Pris tina who so generously gave their time and shared with us their insights into USAID’S involvement in the energy sector of Kosovo. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………… I Findings ................................................................................................................... 1 General Analyses ..................................................................................................... 4 Lessons Learned ...................................................................................................... 5 Recommendations for Future Program Design ....................................................... 5 Environmental Considerations ................................................................................. 5 Specific Areas of Involvement for the Future ......................................................... 5 A. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND .................................................................... 7 A.1 Overview of the Kosovo Power Industry ..................................................... 7 A.2 USAID Involvement in the Energy Sector of Kosovo ................................. 8 A.3 Current USAID Strategy in the Kosovo Energy Sector ............................... 9 B. EVALUATION METHODOLOGY .............................................................................. 10 B.1 Evaluation Objectives ................................................................................. 10 B.2 Document Review ....................................................................................... 10 B.3 Quantitative Analysis and Performance ...................................................... 10 B.4 Qualitative Analysis and Interviews ........................................................... 11 B.5 Specific Analyses ........................................................................................ 11 B.6 Recommendations ....................................................................................... 11 C. PROJECT 1 – KEK NETWORK AND SUPPLY ........................................................ 11 C.1 Project Inception ......................................................................................... 11 C.2 The Years 2007-09 ...................................................................................... 12 C.3 The Years 2010-11 ...................................................................................... 13 C.4 Current Status .............................................................................................. 13 C.5 Impact Analysis – Based on Original Objectives ....................................... 13 C.6 Summary ..................................................................................................... 17 D. PROJECT 2 – EMSG ...................................................................................................... 17 D.1 Background ................................................................................................. 17 D.2 Examination of Performance Indicators and Accomplishments ................. 18 D.3 Analysis of Impacts .................................................................................... 18 D.4 Summary ..................................................................................................... 19 E. PROJECT 3 – KEDS ....................................................................................................... 19 E.1 Timeline ...................................................................................................... 19 E.2 Performance Indicators and Accomplishments ........................................... 19 E.3 Overall Positive Impacts ............................................................................. 20 E.4 Negative Impacts ......................................................................................... 21 E.5 Analysis and Summary ................................................................................ 22 IMPACT EVALUATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN KOSOVO ii F. PROJECT 4 - PREPARATION OF SCOPING STATEMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR REHABILITATION OF THERMAL POWER PLANT KOSOVO B ...................................................................................... 23 F.1 Background .................................................................................................. 23 F.2 USAID Environmental Procedures ............................................................. 23 F.3 Analysis of Environmental Procedures at the USAID Kosovo Mission 2006 to Present ..................................................................................................... 23 F.4 Environmental Engagements of the USAID Energy Program in Kosovo .. 24 F.5 Examination of Performance Indicators and Accomplishments ................. 24 F.6 Positive and Negative Impacts .................................................................... 25 F.7 Analysis and Summary ............................................................................... 26 G. PROJECT 5 – ADDITIONAL ENERGY SECTOR SUPPORT .................... 26 G.1 Background ................................................................................................. 26 G.2 Performance Indicators ............................................................................... 27 G.3 Impacts and Summary ................................................................................. 28 H. GENERAL ANALYSES ..................................................................................... 28 H.1 Inflection Points .......................................................................................... 28 H.2 Political and Donor Environment ................................................................ 29 H.3 SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................... 32 I. LESSONS LEARNED ........................................................................................ 34 J. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE PROGRAM DESIGN ................... 35 J.1 General ........................................................................................................ 35 J.2 Environmental Considerations .................................................................... 37 J.3 Specific Areas of Involvement for the Future ............................................. 37 IMPACT EVALUATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN KOSOVO iii LIST OF ACRONYMS AUK American University in Kosovo CENR Center for Energy and Natural Resource Development COR Contracting Officer’s Representative COTR Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative EA Environmental Assessment EAR European Agency for Reconstruction EC Energy conservation EC European Commission ECT Energy Community Treaty ECSEE Energy Community of South East Europe EMSG Economic Management for Stability and Growth EOIs Expressions of interest ERO Energy Regulatory Office ESCOs Energy service companies ESS Environmental Scoping Statement EU European Union GoK Government of Kosovo HED Higher Education Development HMIK Hydro-Meteorological Institute of Kosovo IEE Initial Environmental Examination IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund KEDS Electricity Distribution Company in Kosovo Project KEK Kosovo Energy Corporation J.S.C. KLA Kosovo Liberation Army KOSTT Kosovo Transmission System and Market Operator J.S.C. LPTAP Lignite Power Technical Assistance Project MD Managing Director MED Ministry of Economic Development MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance MEM Ministry of Energy and Mining NARUC National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners NKPP New Kosovo Power Plant RE Renewable energy RFPs Requests for Proposal RIT Rochester Institute of Technology SME Small and medium enterprise SOW Statement of Work SWOT Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats IMPACT EVALUATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN KOSOVO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is a rep ort on the Impact Evaluation of USAID’ s assistance provided to the Kosovo energy sector since 2007. The evaluation was conducted b y an independent external evaluation team co mmissioned by Mendez England & Associates (ME&A) on behalf of USAID/ Kosovo, pursuant to the Task Order AID-167-TO-12- 00002. The evaluation covered the following projects: Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK) Network and Supply Project Energy Component - Economic Management for Stability and Growth (EMSG) Project Advisory Services to Assist in Pri vatization of the Electricity Distribution