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Ricerche. Scienze Politiche E Sociali

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Ricerche. Scienze Politiche E Sociali RICERCHE. SCIENZE POLITICHE E SOCIALI Marco Valigi, Gabriele Natalizia e Carlo Frappi Il ritorno della geopolitica Regioni e instabilità dal Mar Nero al Mar Caspio edizioni epoké ISBN 978-88-99647-12-4 ©2016 Edizioni Epoké Prima edizione: 2018 Edizioni Epoké. Via N. Bixio, 5 15067, Novi Ligure (AL) www.edizioniepoke.it [email protected] Editing e progetto grafico: Simone Tedeschi, Edoardo Traverso I edizione Finito di stampare nel mese di febbraio 2018 Tipografia Pressup srl, Roma Tutti i diritti sono riservati. Nessuna parte di questa pubblicazione può esse- re fotocopiata, riprodotta o archiviata, memorizzata o trasmessa in qualsiasi forma o mezzo – elettronico, meccanico, reprografico, digitale – se non nei termini previsti dalla legge che tutela il diritto d’autore. INDICE ACRONIMI CAPITOLO DUE p. 9 Promuovere la democrazia. La competizione tra Stati Uniti e INTRODUZIONE Russia nel Caucaso meridionale p. 55 p. 11 Gabriele Natalizia 2.1 La competizione come dinamica CAPITOLO UNO regionale e sub-regionale p. 55 Sicurezza e geopolitica p. 21 2.2 La democrazia come pilastro dell’ordine unipolare Marco Valigi p. 60 2.3 La Russia come “cavaliere nero” 1.1 Il concetto di sicurezza: teoria della democrazia p. 63 e implicazioni di policy p. 21 2.4 Esito delle transizioni e 1.2 Unipolarismo e geopolitica collocazione internazionale terrestre p. 27 degli Stati post-sovietici p. 70 1.3 Dal Rimland a un nuovo 2.5 L’influenza degli Stati Uniti “arco della crisi” p. 33 e della Russia sulle transizioni 1.4 Il Caspio nell’agenda politica in Caucaso meridionale p. 79 americana p. 36 2.6 Conclusioni p. 102 1.5 Gli USA in Asia centrale: il ruolo del Caspio p. 40 1.6 L’heartland e la guerra globale al terrorismo p. 45 1.7 Disimpegno militare e incertezze politiche p. 49 1.8 Conclusioni p. 51 8 IL RITORNO DELLA GEOPOLITICA. REGIONI E INSTABILITÀ DAL MAR NERO AL MAR CASPIO CAPITOLO TRE CONCLUSIONI Percezioni e rappresentazioni p. 149 della sicurezza nel Caucaso meridionale: continuità BIBLIOGRAFIA e cambiamento p. 105 p. 157 Carlo Frappi 3.1 La geopolitica del Caucaso AUTORI meridionale p. 105 p. 176 3.2 Il nodo tra identità nazionale, politica estera e di sicurezza nelle Repubbliche del Caucaso meridionale p. 114 3.3 Il mosaico etno-territoriale: conflitti, trans-nazionalismo e diaspora politics p. 122 3.4 L’elemento geografico come fattore di competizione e di cooperazione pragmatica p. 135 3.5 Conclusioni p. 145 ACRONIMI ACG Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (giacimento di) AIOC Azerbaijan International Oil Company BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan CESD Center for Economic and Social Development (Baku) CIS-EMO Commonwealth of the Independent States - Election Monitoring Organization CSCE Conferenza sulla Sicurezza e sulla cooperazione in Europa CSI Comunità degli Stati Indipendenti DSN Documento sulla Sicurezza Nazionale EIA Energy Information Administration EODE Eurasian Observatory for Democracy and Elections FSA Freedom for Russia and Emerging Eurasian Democracies and Open Markets Support Act GONGO Government-Organized non-Governmental Organization GTEP Georgia Train and Equip Program GUAM Georgia-Ucraina-Azerbaigian-Moldova GUUAM Georgia-Ucraina-Uzbekistan-Azerbaigian-Moldova IFES Fondazione internazionale per i Sistemi elettorali IOC International Oil Company MAP Membership Action Plan MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MENA Medio Oriente Nord Africa MNPA Movimento Nazionale Pan-Armeno NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSS National Security Strategy 10 IL RITORNO DELLA GEOPOLITICA. REGIONI E INSTABILITÀ DAL MAR NERO AL MAR CASPIO ONG Organizzazione Non Governativa ONU Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite OSCE Organizzazione per la Sicurezza e Cooperazione in Europa OTSC Organizzazione del Trattato di Sicurezza Collettiva PEV Politica Estera di Vicinato PfP Partnership for Peace PIL Prodotto Intern Lordo RSC Regional Security Complex RSCT Regional Security Complex Theory RSS Repubblica Socialista Sovietica RT Russia Today SCP South Caucasus Pipeline SOCAR State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic TPP Trans Pacific Partnership TSC Trattato di Sicurezza Collettiva UE Unione Europea UEE Unione Economica Eurasiatica URSS Unione delle Repubbliche Socialiste Sovietiche USA United States of America USAID United States Agency for International Development Introduzione UN LABORATORIO DI STUDI SULLA SICUREZZA La trattazione sistematica delle dinamiche politiche dell’area compresa tra Mar Nero e Mar Caspio rappresenta un’operazione scientificamente complessa e foriera di numerose criticità. Queste sono legate tanto alla complessità delle vi- cende storiche e del mosaico etnoculturale che contraddistinguono il Caucaso meridionale, quanto alla perdita di categorie analitiche di riferimento seguita al collasso dell’Unione Sovietica. La cesura regionale e sistemica del 1991 ha così segnato il termine ad quem per un fertile filone di studi internazionalistici svi- luppatosi in Occidente – la sovietologia – e, al contempo, il termine a quo per la travagliata nascita dei nuovi studi post-sovietici. Il repentino cambiamento del panorama politico avvenuto nei territori dell’ex URSS e l’apertura, per larghi versi imprevista, di un “buco nero” politico nel cuore della massa eurasiatica (Brzezinski 1997), hanno richiesto una altrettanto repentina riconfigurazione dei parametri attraverso i quali guardare all’area e alle sue singole componenti statali e nazionali. Due ordini di fattori, collegati tra loro, hanno reso più ambizioso lo sforzo di comprensione e interpretazione dei fenomeni politici che hanno preso for- ma nello Spazio post-sovietico durante l’ultimo quarto di secolo. Da una parte, gli studiosi dell’area hanno dovuto superare la radicata tendenza a interpretare la regione post-sovietica come un blocco monolitico, confrontandosi con l’e- sigenza di individuare nuove chiavi interpretative per assunti e concetti – da quello di Stato a quello di interesse nazionale – sino ad allora dati per scontati dalla teoria delle Relazioni internazionali (Holloway 1995). In secondo luogo, lo sforzo interpretativo è stato reso più arduo dal fatto che la “visione mo- nolitica” della sovietologia occidentale induceva a un’attenzione relativa per le realtà nazionali che poi sarebbero emerse dal vaso di Pandora sovietico. La 12 IL RITORNO DELLA GEOPOLITICA. REGIONI E INSTABILITÀ DAL MAR NERO AL MAR CASPIO logica del confronto bipolare, d’altronde, aveva lasciato poco spazio all’osser- vazione sia delle differenze etniche, religiose e culturali interne all’URSS, sia alle crepe che esse generavano al suo interno (Van Oudenaren, 1984). Vista da questa prospettiva, la dissoluzione dell’Unione Sovietica ha restituito alla comunità internazionale e a quella scientifica attori che, nel corso del settan- tennio precedente, erano stati relegati ai margini non soltanto delle dinamiche internazionali, ma anche dell’interesse accademico. Il ritorno della geopolitica. Regioni e instabilità dal Mar Nero al Mar Caspio si in- serisce nel solco del rinato interesse per il Caucaso meridionale, proceduto di pari passo – nel nostro Paese come all’estero – con la crescita della sua rilevanza per gli equilibri globali. L’assunto generale su cui è fondato questo nuovo contributo al dibattito scientifico è che il fattore geografico, molto più che durante la Guerra fredda, sembra “pesare” sulle dinamiche politiche del sistema internazionale scaturito dall’esito di quest’ultima (Marshall 2015). In particolare, sembra influire su uno dei temi cruciali per gli studi di Relazioni internazionali, quello della stabilità/instabilità dell’ordine politico (locale, re- gionale o globale), da intendersi come la capacità di un sistema di preservare i suoi tratti caratterizzanti e l’indipendenza dei suoi attori principali (Gilpin 1981; Andreatta 1997). Nel XXI secolo tanto le preferenze, quanto le strategie degli Stati contemporanei appaiono “imprigionate” dai “recinti” della geogra- fia, in misura non troppo differente da come lo erano quelle delle Città-Stato greche, della Francia dei cardinali Richelieu e Mazzarino o del Regno d’Italia. A dispetto dei progressi scientifici, dell’importanza del potere economico e dell’apertura di nuove frontiere per la competizione tra gli Stati, infatti, il dato territoriale continua a restare centrale nella comprensione sia delle cause (il “perché”) che delle modalità (il “come”) della lotta per il potere nell’arena internazionale. La rilevanza del dato territoriale dipende, anzitutto, dal cam- biamento di scala verificatosi nel sistema internazionale con il superamento del bipolarismo e il processo di regionalizzazione che ha contraddistinto la nuova cornice unipolare (Colombo 2011). L’inceppamento della capacità di penetrazione culturale, istituzionale e diplomatico-strategica del livello globale nei diversi sistemi regionali, nel post-Guerra fredda ha conferito nuova signif- icatività e interesse scientifico alle dinamiche d’area. D’altra parte, in assenza di un confronto di tipo bipolare, la deterrenza nucleare e la presenza di armi di distruzione di massa non hanno fatto che rafforzare tale mutamento, come provato da alcuni recenti eventi che si sono verificati anche nello spazio com- preso tra Mar Nero e Mar Caspio. La credibilità sempre minore del ricorso a soluzioni non convenzionali, infatti, ha permesso la realizzazione di uno scenario in cui le potenze che sfidano l’egemonia americana su scala regionale possono ricorrere a un uso limitato della violenza, tale da rendere irrazionale una risposta militare, per ottenere revisioni
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