SATURDAY 30 JANUARY 2010 STAY UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY Business Standard NEW DELHI OPINION Visit www.business-standard.com 13 BusinessStandard VOLUME XVI NUMBER 136 MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING Playing with fire The climate-change ‘science’ continues to unravel, says DEEPAK LAL ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA t has been a bad two months for the der YS Rajasekhar Reddy got sup- A LONG, FAST DECLINE: 7 YEARS’ GLOBAL WEEKEND port from the Maoists during the purveyors of the “science” of man- COOLING AT 3.6°F (2°C)/CENTURY state elections, support that helped made global warming. The BA- °C RUMINATIONS SIC group of countries (Brazil, South 0.8 Global monthly temperature anomalies, January 2002 unseat the Telugu Desam. Like Africa, India and China) stood firm 0.7 to Feb ‘09; IPCC predicts warming at +2.4, +3, +3.9, +4.7, +5.3°C/century IPCC TN NINAN Mr Soren today, Mr Reddy at the atI Copenhagen from being bounced in- 0.6 0.5 time began with a soft approach to an agreement on mandatory carbon 0.4 ne of the strengths of the In- to the Maoists, and got tough on- emission cuts. With the Democrat’s de- 0.3 dian system is its ability to ly after a year or two had passed. feat in Massachusetts, there is little hope 0.2 co-opt rebellious and sepa- The question that bears ask- of President Barack Obama pursuing the 0.1 O US climate change Bill, leaving Europe 0 ratist forces and bring them into the ing is whether the Maoists have got 2003 2005 2007 2009 — particularly the UK — out on a limb Figure 1: How the IPCC’s projections of rising temperatures have increasingly political mainstream. The Com- so much purchase in select pock- diverged since 2001 from the trend in actual temperatures. with their legislation of targets for sav- Source: Science and Public Policy Institute. munists were persuaded to take part ets of the country that they are now age CO2 emission cuts which, if imple- in the parliamentary system of democ- able to influence the outcome of CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 1,000 YEARS THE HOCKEY STICK GRAPH AS SHOWN mented, will lead to their rapid descent AS SHOWN BY THE IPCC IN 1990 BY THE IPCC IN 2001 racy, and the separatist forces in Tamil state elections, and thereby de- into the Stone Age. © IPCC (1990) Nadu and Mizoram became the main- termine who will become the chief But an equally important drama has NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 0.5 C) C) ° stream. The system is large and minister. If they have twice tried the been playing in New Delhi with Dr Ra- ° accommodative enough to make gambit and if it worked on both oc- jendra Pachauri, the head of the Inter- Little ice age 0 national Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), room for all comers — and more casions, in that they won a reprieve Medical would come into the mainstream from police action that helped them having to retract various purportedly “sci- warm period -0.5

entific” claims made in the panel’s 2007 change ( Temperature if it were not for the instigation and to catch their breath and re-group, report. The one which has rightly come to -1.0 Departures in temperature ( support that Pakistan and China pro- they will naturally conclude that the fore in India is Glaciergate, concern- from the 1961 to 1990 average vide for the recalcitrant elements. the gambit is worth trying again. ing the IPCC’s claim that the Himalayan 1000 AD1500 AD 1900 AD Year 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Figure 2: Climate change over the past 1,000 years: JT Houghton et. al, IPCC First Figure 3: The ‘hockey stick’ graph: Mann ME, et al (1999), northern hemisphere That said, a strange thing is hap- With West Bengal elections not far glaciers would melt by 2035. When the Assessment Report, 1990. temperatures during the last millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations pening when it comes to the Maoists, away, it is important to ask who us- government-sponsored report by eminent because the shoe seems to be on the es whom when the Maoists form Indian glaciologist Dr Vijaya Raina came other foot. In at least two states, it links with mainstream parties. out in November, saying that the IPCC’s collaboration with the met office’s Hadley the 2001 IPCC report. losing credibility”. (Wegman Report, 2006 claims were baseless and recklessly Centre after obtaining the agreement of Till two Canadians, statistician Stephen is available at gochttp://www.cimateau- is the Maoists who have used the The stand-out example of how alarmist, it was dismissed by Dr Pachau- other met offices around the world. McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick, dit.org/pdf/others/07142006_Weg- mainstream parties for their own things can go wrong is provided by ri, a railway engineer with a PhD in eco- The unwillingness to release the da- published an article showing that “there man_Report.pdf). ends, with the latter willing to play Punjab in the 1980s. It was initial- nomics, as being “arrogant” and “voodoo ta was for two reasons. First, since 1977 was an error in a routine calculation step… These revelations of the debauch- along in the hope of grabbing pow- ly the Congress that tried to upstage science”. Subsequently, he had to eat crow when sunspot activity has decreased that falsely identified a hockey stick shape ing of climate change “science” by the er. The latest example is Shibu Soren, the Akali Dal by setting up Jarnail as he and the IPCC had to admit that their as the Sun seems to have gone to sleep, as the dominant pattern in the data. The IPCC continue apace. As I write, there is who as the newly-elected chief min- Singh Bhindranwale. Later, Akali predictions about Himalayan glaciers were both terrestrial and more accurate satel- flawed computer program can even pull a report that the IPCC’s 2007 claim that ister of Jharkhand wants to go politicians developed links with the without scientific foundations. lite temperature readings show the Earth out spurious hockey stick shapes from global warming is linked to a rise in nat- soft on the Maoists and has, in fact, militants and saw them as a use- Glaciergate had been preceded by Cli- is cooling, even as CO2 emissions have lists of trendless random numbers” (En- ural disasters has also been shown to be mategate in November, when a hacker increased (See fig. 1), contradicting ergy and Environment, 2003:752-771). scientifically invalid. The IPCC vice-chair- called off police action soon after ful ally for specific objectives — and leaked hundreds of emails from the the man-made global warming theory. With the subsequent furore, the US man says it will be reviewed. assuming office. Whether he has there too, it was not clear who was Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the Uni- Second, they have been keen to resur- Congress set up two scientific commit- The unravelling of this politicised cli- changed course after his meeting a using whom. What the country versity of East Anglia. These show that rect the infamous “hockey stick”. tees to examine climate history. They up- mate “science” has already had political couple of days ago with the home remembers is that Punjab came Professor Phillip Jones, the director of held McIntyre and McKitrick, and one consequences. At the recent BASIC en- minister remains to be seen, but it to the brink, and peace returned on- the CRU — the source of the most im- ill 1999, when a recent physics Phd- investigation chaired by Dr Edward Weg- vironmental ministers gathering, Xi Zhen- is hard to ignore the possibility that ly after a heavy price had been paid, portant of the four sets of temperature Tturned-climatologist, Michael Mann, man — a leading statistician — excori- hua, the Chinese representative, said that Mr Soren is delivering in return for in terms of bloodshed and violence, data on which the IPCC relies — along published a paper on the 1,000-year tem- ated the Mann papers as well as his var- Beijing would keep an “open attitude the support that he got from the including Operation Bluestar and with a tight network of colleagues had perature record, the accepted trend was ious highly placed supporters who had to the disputes in the scientific com- for years discussed various tactics to avoid given by fig. 2, which appeared in the 1990 tried to whitewash them. Wegman also munity” as “there is a view that climate Maoists during the recent elections the assassination of Indira Gandhi. releasing their data to outsiders under IPCC report (reproduced in its Chairman commissioned a “social network analy- change is caused by cyclical trends in na- to the state assembly. Because the Maoists speak in freedom of information laws. They kept John Houghton’s book Global Warm- sis” of Mann’s defenders to find out how ture itself”. As a start, to help in an In neighbouring West Bengal, the name of the poor, they tend coming up with innumerable excuses to ing (1994)). This shows that temperatures independent they were, which found that honest resolution of these disputes, the the Marxists continually beat the to attract some degree of sympa- conceal the background data on which in the Medieval Warm Period had been they “are closely connected and thus ‘in- IPCC needs to be disbanded. If neces- drum about Mamata Banerjee’s Tri- thy and so a political party doing their findings and temperature records higher than those predicted to increase dependent studies’ may not be as inde- sary, by the BASIC countries withdraw- namool Congress being in league a quick-and-dirty deal with them are based. Jones, astonishingly, even as a result of rising CO2 emissions. Mann pendent as they might appear on the sur- ing, and setting up a truly independent with the Maoists in the state, the tends to be seen as less than heinous. claimed in 2008 that this data from all and his colleagues (Nature, 1998:779-787) face”. Mann’s supporters were “a tight- global scientific commission of scientists common objective being to un- But the dangers are all too appar- over the world was “lost”. But the emails showed that, including data from Cali- ly knit group of individuals who pas- supporting the two alternative theories show that scientists were told to delete fornian pine cones and with suitable sta- sionately believe in their thesis. Howev- on global warming outlined in my pre- seat the Left Front when state elec- ent if the Maoists are encouraged large chunks of data. As this was done tistical manipulation, the data was best er, our perception is that this group has vious columns. Meanwhile, to end con- tions come round next year. It is al- to believe that they can further their after the receipt of a freedom of infor- represented by fig. 3, where the tem- a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism, ning the media, Dr Pachauri should is- so an open secret that, six years ago, agenda through selective deals with mation request, it became a criminal of- perature was constant followed by a rap- and, moreover, the work has been suf- sue a statement that he not be referred the Andhra Pradesh Congress un- mainstream parties. fence, and the University of East An- id rise with the Industrial Age. Their “hock- ficiently politicized that they can hard- to as the world’s leading climate scien- glia had to agree to release the data in ey stick” became the iconic figure in ly reassess their public positions without tist. No more than Al Gore or me!

though a wag in the audience did point out that e-readers cannot E-reading the tea leaves replace toilet paper in extremis. Are economists One distinguished poet set up clever conception and very good creasing percentage, of the world’s be easy for publishing. Publishing a straw man by waxing eloquent mixing and matching of Web tech- readers already do most of their has to find its own answers to elec- about the power and relevance alone to blame? nologies is required to offer such reading on screens. tronic piracy and avoid the music of the written word — nobody pres- a slick multimedia platform. The rising popularity of e-read- industry’s catastrophic errors. It al- ent at the JLF denied that. But cumb to “money illusion”. The founder-editor, Tina Brown, ers like the Kindle, the Sony Read- so has to find ways to reconfigure the point is that the word can be BOOKMARK 5. Finally, human behaviour is heavily was an entirely appropriate pan- er and the newly-launched iPad, the value chain as the revenue stored and accessed digitally with influenced by stories and narratives with ellist in a public debate about shows this trend will strengthen. streams mutate. Many currently vi- great speed, and convenience. V V logic that drive people to action. We’re the Internet (presented by the The Google Android OS’ focus on tal links in publishing’s manufac- This reminds one of the situation all gullible idiots at the time and only Beast) at the JLF. But she appeared being a full-featured e-reader more turing, distribution and retail chains vis-a-vis telephones early in the last If everything in this world were later wake up to realise we’ve been conned. to be the only person on that podi- or less guarantees that the next gen- will become redundant as consumers century. In 1910, “oldies” regarded rational, nothing would happen um who thoroughly understood eration of mobile phones will also move to e-readers and e-delivery. the phone as an expensive, restric- —Fyodor Dostoevesky: The If you put all the five factors togeth- VIEWPOINT the medium and she is a media- be e-readers. Anecdotal evidence Those are fascinating issues and tive alternative to correspondence, Brothers Karamazov er, the conclusion is obvious: “animal spir- person, rather than a publisher. from literary forums, blogs and fan- well worth several debates. Given even as it started being adopted with it” forces other than reason guide our DEVANGSHU DATTA The subject itself, “Will the In- sites, as well as sales figures show the presence of a who’s-who of glad cries of joy. Circa 2010, a phone ho is to blame for the current actions. If you look back, none of them are ternet save books?” is close to mean- an increasing ratio of e-books to pa- industry professionals as well as call or email is cheaper than a post- global financial crisis? As usu- based on rational grounds and this “ir- ingless if it is taken literally. One an- per versions. tech-savvy writers at the JLF, a pan- card, and the technology also offers W ally happens after a crash, the rationality” must be taken into account to he DSC Jaipur Literary Fes- swer is “No, the Internet will reduce As e-readers become ubiqui- el of experts could easily have been a far richer mix of multimedia com- search for scapegoats has been intense understand how economies actually work. tival (JLF) has a partner- the need to kill trees in order to tous, and publishers start cut- put together to discuss them. munication alternatives. and several contenders have emerged: If economists have failed to explain re- T ship with The Daily Beast, deliver literary content”. The sub- ting e-prices (which are current- Unfortunately, the debate nev- The transition period is like- Wall Street; the bankers who sold loans peated crises, it is because they have in- a webmag ranked among the Top ject-line may be modified to some- ly iniquitous), more readers will er rose beyond the level of vap- ly to be dramatically compressed without collateral to those who could least terpreted economic activity through an Ten blogs by Technorati. The Beast thing like “Will the Internet offer default to e-platforms. This brings idity. The panel lacked the pub- in the move from paper to e-books. afford them; the experts who gave wrong unreal model. Economists have based their is impressive. It offers tons of qual- a new platform for literature and the publishing industry face-to- lishers’ perspective and collec- Circa 2015, the 2010 JLF debate advice; but most of all that “dismal” sci- studies on mathematical models of human ity writing, videos, podcasts, pho- rescue the reading habit?”, which face with several dilemmas. tively, it appeared to be less than will seem as quaint as 15th cen- ence, economics itself. Or, rather simplis- behaviour whereas they should have been toessays, etc., across subjects rang- was how most panellists chose to Given the way music and main- conversant with the technology. tury monks bewailing the loss tically, human greed that drives capital- based on human psychology and practi- ing from snowflakes to Islam. interpret it. The answer is again, ob- stream media have struggled to adapt There was incredulity onstage that of calligraphic skills as the print- ism. All these explanations have some truth cal politics of the times. There are lots under the hood; vious. A majority, and rapidly-in- to changing technology, it won’t a Kindle can be read in the loo, ing press caught on. to them but most bubbles are more than Given this base, Akerlof and Shiller just bad faith, or incompetence, or rank bring in Keynes who has had a new lease stupidity: the interaction of human psy- of life after the impact of the financial chology with a market economy practi- crisis because he had rejected the idea that around for seven years and the cally ensures that bubbles will form. To markets were self-stabilising and, more person interviewing you has, that extent, bubbles are a rational and un- importantly, he had reintegrated psychology Reapplying for your own jobs? among other things, seen you mak- avoidable by-product of capitalism. Tech- into economic theory. To begin with, ing an awkward pass at his PA nology and circumstances change, but the Akerlof and Shiller draw attention to workforce really more dissatisfied year) is simply a reflection of the fact you are no longer wanted. For a com- at a Christmas party? human animal doesn’t. Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability (1921) than these wretched specimens? that reapplying for your job would pany, it is the equivalent of putting I can’t think of any conventional And markets are ultimately about peo- in which he had tried to develop a theo- Well, I think we need to concede be a highly demoralising experience. yourself on a dating site when you’re job interview advice that would be ple, which is what George Akerlof and ry of “rational degrees of belief”, which he that we live in miserable times. Reapplications can, of course, married; and for the employee, it of use with a reapplication. How Robert Shiller talk about in Animal Spir- refined and developed in his classic work, There’s something about the way have positive effects: that survey is the equivalent of having to seduce can you “ask questions about the its: How Human Psychology Drives the General Theory of Employment, Interest the economic crisis has combined of IT workers from 2008 found that someone you’ve been married to for company” when you know every- Economy, and Why It Matters For Glob- and Money (1936). He concluded there with the intrinsic glumness of Jan- 37 per cent believed lazy colleagues 26 years. As bad as the economic thing about it? How do you “fol- al Capitalism (Princeton University Press, were no scientific way that you could make uary, the disappointment of the would be found out as a result and environment may be, I’m not sur- low up the interview with a thank £16.95). It deals with that relatively new forecasts; not just about future interest Obama administration, the failure one in four said being asked to reap- prised that so many people would you letter” to a long-standing col- field, “behavioural economics”, or how the rates and prices but also about new tech- of the Copenhagen climate talks ply for a job would make them work rather quit than go through it. league without it looking awkward? economy really works. As they put it in the nologies that would impact society and and the knowledge that there are harder. And there are certain jobs Besides, can you imagine how How do you go about being “pos- Introduction, “it accounts for how it works about the future trend of politics. still several months to go before that require people to routinely reap- the interview would go? We all know, itive” and “showing a sense of hu- when people really are human, that is, pos- There were asymmetries of informa- PERSPECTIVE the World Cup begins that has left ply for their posts: British MPs have for instance, that in- mour” and “speak- sessed of all-too-human animal spirits”, tion that we simply don’t know which was people feeling suicidal. Meanwhile, to do it, many freelancers have to do terviewers like to ask For an employee, ing clearly and en- or human frailties. understandable when he was writing on SATHNAM SANGHERA news on the employment front re- so and in New Zealand, reapplica- interviewees about reapplying for his thusiastically about According to the authors, there are five the eve of World War II. The trouble about mains bleak. Everyone knows that tion is considered so healthy that the their strengths and your experiences ways in which “animal spirits” manifest forecasting an economy’s future is that we there’s no such thing as a job for Local Government Act requires that weaknesses, questions own job is the and skills” when themselves in economic behaviour: can’t distinguish between risk and un- eep Britain Working, the life any more, we are taught it from the jobs of council chief executives that are hard enough equivalent of you are naturally 1. The state of the economy depends certainty, where probabilities can’t be at- independent job campaign the youngest age, and an increas- be given out on a five-year, fixed- to navigate when the having to seduce negative and hu- upon the “feel-good” factor or the level tached to possible outcomes. Even the list K group, published a survey ing number of jobs are offered term-contract basis, followed by parties involved are mourless and mum- of confidence about how the future will of possible outcomes can miss out the ones the other day that contained a rather on a short-term basis. Added to re-advertisement. complete strangers, someone you’ve bling? And how on pan out. This is not a rational prediction that were most important in shaping the striking statistic: apparently, two- that, relentless media coverage But there’s no getting over the but impossible when earth do you “avoid but based on instinct, which is the most course of events. French philosopher and thirds of workers would rather leave of job losses is creating a sense fact that most of the time job reap- you’ve been working been married to at all cost com- crucial feature of “animal spirits”. mathematician Pascal (1623-62) hit the their employer than reapply for their of extreme job insecurity. There plications are a sign that a company for a company for sev- for 26 years plaining about your 2. A sense of fairness can overrule nail on the head when he asked, “Is it prob- own job. This seemed a high pro- are only so many times you can tell is in distress or that you are unwanted. en years and the in- current or former rational economic motivations. For ex- able that probability brings certainty.” portion, not least because a similar people that they’re at risk of losing Indeed, short of walking into terviewer in question is more than employer in your job interview”, ample, the demand for shovels can rise af- What Keynes fought against in the survey of IT workers conducted in their jobs before they start plan- work and finding your phone dis- aware of your many weakness and when you have been asked by that ter a snowstorm, but raising prices at such 1930s was the belief that human ignorance 2008 by Hudson, the recruitment ning for it. Frankly, I don’t know connected, or your name plaque re- lack of strengths. employer to reapply for your job? a juncture would be considered unjust by of the future could be overcome and that company, found that a fifth would a single person who hasn’t started moved from your office, or find- Also, we all know the impor- Frankly, everything about a the majority and, therefore, desisted. human behaviour can be predicted. This not reapply for their own job, and IT thinking about an alternative ca- ing your team is having meetings tance of making a good first im- reapplication job interview would 3. The action of monopoly capital- error was strengthened when American workers are among the most mis- reer. What’s your plan? Personal- without you, or suddenly having no pression in job interviews (“Peo- favour the upbeat and vague new- ism — multinationals or predatory cor- economists of the Chicago School came erable of all professionals. Given a ly, I’m going to have a go at run- work to do, or discovering your com- ple decide about you in the first comer. The only advantage you’d porations can impact the entire economy. up with complex mathematical formu- choice between going into work ning my family farm in India. pany has been sold, or being escorted few moments of meeting you,” one have as an incumbent is that you For instance, the actions of energy giant lae to explain business cycles of boom and on a Monday morning and under- But, having said that, I think out of the building by burly secu- expert says. “You should spend as would be more likely to turn up to Enron led many to lose faith in financial bust. The mathematics was impressive but going a skin graft without anaes- the high proportion of people who rity guards, or being punched re- much time preparing for the first the interview on time and would markets as a whole. didn’t quite jell with the real world around thetic, most people in IT would prob- wouldn’t reapply for their job (and peatedly in the face by a senior ten seconds of your job interview know where the loos were. No won- 4. Many people make their econom- us. The conclusion was obvious: too much ably plump for the former, but on- the research found that 43 per cent colleague, being asked to reapply as you do for the rest of it”), but der, most people would rather quit. ic decisions without taking into account reason can be a nightmare. To the grow- ly after a considerable delibera- of British workers believe there is for your job is one of the clearest how do you make a good first im- inflation: instead of maximising their re- ing body of literature in defence of Keynes, tion. Is the majority of the British a risk they will be asked to do so this ways an employer can tell you that pression when you have been www.sathnam.com al (inflation-adjusted) income, they suc- this book is a welcome addition.