Global Temperature Change
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Andrew Montford's the Hockey Stick Illusion Is One of the Best Science
Andrew Montford‘s The Hockey Stick Illusion is one of the best science books in years. It exposes in delicious detail, datum by datum, how a great scientific mistake of immense political weight was perpetrated, defended and camouflaged by a scientific establishment that should now be red with shame. It is a book about principal components, data mining and confidence intervals—subjects that have never before been made thrilling. It is the biography of a graph. I can remember when I first paid attention to the ―hockey stick‖ graph at a conference in Cambridge. The temperature line trundled along with little change for centuries, then shot through the roof in the 20th century, like the blade of an ice-hockey stick. I had become somewhat of a sceptic about the science of climate change, but here was emphatic proof that the world was much warmer today; and warming much faster than at any time in a thousand years. I resolved to shed my doubts. I assumed that since it had been published in Nature—the Canterbury Cathedral of scientific literature—it was true. I was not the only one who was impressed. The graph appeared six times in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‘s third report in 2001. It was on display as a backdrop at the press conference to launch that report. James Lovelock pinned it to his wall. Al Gore used it in his film (though describing it as something else and with the Y axis upside down). Its author shot to scientific stardom. ―It is hard to overestimate how influential this study has been,‖ said the BBC. -
Sam White the Real Little Ice Age Between C.1300 and C.1850 A.D
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, xliv:3 (Winter, 2014), 327–352. THE REAL LITTLE ICE AGE Sam White The Real Little Ice Age Between c.1300 and c.1850 a.d. the world became, on average, slightly but signiªcantly colder. The change varied over time and space, and its causes remain un- certain. Nevertheless, this cooling constitutes a meaningful climate event, with signiªcant historical consequences. Both the cooling trend and its effects on humans appear to have been particularly Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article-pdf/44/3/327/1706251/jinh_a_00574.pdf by guest on 28 September 2021 acute from the late sixteenth to the late seventeenth century in much of the Northern Hemisphere. This article explains why climatologists and historians are conªdent that these changes occurred. On close examination, the objections raised in this issue of the journal by Kelly and Ó Gráda turn out to be entirely unfounded. The proxy data for early mod- ern global cooling (such as tree rings and ice cores) are robust, and written weather descriptions and observations of physical phenom- ena (such as glacial movements and river freezings) by and large of- fer independent conªrmation. Kelly and Ó Gráda’s proposed alter- native measures of climate and climate change suffer from serious ºaws. As we review the evidence and refute their criticisms, it will become clear just how solid the case for the Little Ice Age (lia) has become. the case for the little ice age The evidence for early modern global cooling comes, ªrst and foremost, from extensive research into physical proxies, including ice cores, tree rings, corals, and speleothems (stalagmites and stalactites). -
Sea Level and Climate Introduction
Sea Level and Climate Introduction Global sea level and the Earth’s climate are closely linked. The Earth’s climate has warmed about 1°C (1.8°F) during the last 100 years. As the climate has warmed following the end of a recent cold period known as the “Little Ice Age” in the 19th century, sea level has been rising about 1 to 2 millimeters per year due to the reduction in volume of ice caps, ice fields, and mountain glaciers in addition to the thermal expansion of ocean water. If present trends continue, including an increase in global temperatures caused by increased greenhouse-gas emissions, many of the world’s mountain glaciers will disap- pear. For example, at the current rate of melting, most glaciers will be gone from Glacier National Park, Montana, by the middle of the next century (fig. 1). In Iceland, about 11 percent of the island is covered by glaciers (mostly ice caps). If warm- ing continues, Iceland’s glaciers will decrease by 40 percent by 2100 and virtually disappear by 2200. Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (table 1). Complete melt- ing of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a Figure 1. Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana; sea-level rise of only one-half meter. photograph by Carl H. Key, USGS, in 1981. The glacier has been retreating rapidly since the early 1900’s. -
$1.2 Million Conflict of Interest Plagues Climate Change Denial Research
$1.2 Million Conflict of Interest Plagues Climate Change Denial Research... http://natmonitor.com/2015/02/22/1-2-million-conflict-of-interest-plague... $1.2 Million Conflict of Interest Plagues Climate Change Denial Research By James Paladino, National Monitor | February 22, 2015 A recently uncovered document shows that Wei-Hok Soon, a well-known aerospace engineer, was granted over $1.2 million from fossil-fuel companies for climate research and failed to disclose a conflict of interest in his peer-reviewed publications. In Washington, climate change deniers are fighting a fierce battle to stave off energy policy reform. The latest casualty of this war of ideas is Wei-Hock Soon, a part-time employee of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Resilient to the scientific consensus that human carbon emissions are fueling gradual warming, the aerospace engineer has served as a beacon for conservative legislators. A recently uncovered document shows that Soon was granted over $1.2 million from fossil-fuel companies and failed to disclose a conflict of interest in his peer-reviewed publications. Since the Smithsonian is part of the federal government, former Greenpeace member Kert Davies legally obtained the Soon’s grant agreements through the Freedom of Information Act. Contributors include the American Petroleum Institute, the Koch brothers, Exxon Mobil and Southern Company. Several scientific papers and a congressional testimonial were termed as “deliverables,” reports The New York Times. “These proposals and contracts show debatable interventions in science literally on behalf of the Southern Company and the Kochs,” said Davies. “What it shows is the continuation of a long-term campaign by specific fossil-fuel companies and interests to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change.” These recent revelations have drawn fire from members of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center and NASA, among others. -
Open PDF File, 8.71 MB, for February 01, 2017 Appendix In
Case 4:16-cv-00469-K Document 175 Filed 02/01/17 Page 1 of 10 PageID 5923 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS FORT WORTH DIVISION EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, § § Plaintiff, § v. § No. 4:16-CV-469-K § ERIC TRADD SCHNEIDERMAN, § Attorney General of New York, in his § official capacity, and MAURA TRACY § HEALEY, Attorney General of § Massachusetts, in her official capacity, § § Defendants. § APPENDIX IN SUPPORT OF EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION’S BRIEF IN SUPPORT OF THIS COURT’S PERSONAL JURISDICTION OVER THE DEFENDANTS Exhibit Description Page(s) N/A Declaration of Justin Anderson (Feb. 1, 2017) v – ix A Transcript of the AGs United for Clean Power App. 1 –App. 21 Press Conference, held on March 29, 2016, which was prepared by counsel based on a video recording of the event. The video recording is available at http://www.ag.ny.gov/press- release/ag-schneiderman-former-vice-president- al-gore-and-coalition-attorneys-general-across B E-mail from Wendy Morgan, Chief of Public App. 22 – App. 32 Protection, Office of the Vermont Attorney General to Michael Meade, Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Bureau, Office of the New York Attorney General (Mar. 18, 2016, 6:06 PM) C Union of Concerned Scientists, Peter Frumhoff, App. 33 – App. 37 http://www.ucsusa.org/about/staff/staff/peter- frumhoff.html#.WI-OaVMrLcs (last visited Jan. 20, 2017, 2:05 PM) Case 4:16-cv-00469-K Document 175 Filed 02/01/17 Page 2 of 10 PageID 5924 Exhibit Description Page(s) D Union of Concerned Scientists, Smoke, Mirrors & App. -
Red Lines & Hockey Sticks
Red Lines & Hockey Sticks A discourse analysis of the IPCC’s visual culture and climate science (mis)communication Thomas Henderson Dawson Department of ALM Theses within Digital Humanities Master’s thesis (two years), 30 credits, 2021, no. 5 Author Thomas Henderson Dawson Title Red Lines & Hockey Sticks: A discourse analysis of the IPCC’s visual culture and climate science (mis)communication. Supervisor Matts Lindström Abstract Within the climate science research community there exists an overwhelming consensus on the question of climate change. The scientific literature supports the broad conclusion that the Earth’s climate is changing, that this change is driven by human factors (anthropogenic), and that the environmental consequences could be severe. While a strong consensus exists in the climate science community, this is not reflected in the wider public or among poli- cymakers, where sceptical attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change is much more prevalent. This discrep- ancy in the perception of the urgency of the problem of climate change is an alarming trend and likely a result of a failure of science communication, which is the topic of this thesis. This paper analyses the visual culture of climate change, with specific focus on the data visualisations com- prised within the IPCC assessment reports. The visual aspects of the reports were chosen because of the prioriti- sation images often receive within scientific communication and for their quality as immutable mobiles that can transition between different media more easily than text. The IPCC is the central institutional authority in the climate science visual discourse, and its assessment reports, therefore, are the site of this discourse analysis. -
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age THOM A S J. CRO wl E Y 1*, G. ZIELINSK I 2, B. VINTHER 3, R. UD ISTI 4, K. KREUT Z 5, J. CO L E -DA I 6 A N D E. CA STE lla NO 4 1School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK; [email protected] 2Center for Marine and Wetland Studies, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, USA 3Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 4Department of Chemistry, University of Florence, Italy 5Department of Earth Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, USA 6Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, USA *Collaborating authors listed in reverse alphabetical order. The Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250-1850) has long been considered the coldest interval of the Holocene. Because of its proximity to the present, there are many types of valuable resources for reconstructing tem- peratures from this time interval. Although reconstructions differ in the amplitude Special Section: Comparison Data-Model of cooling during the LIA, they almost all agree that maximum cooling occurred in the mid-15th, 17th and early 19th centuries. The LIA period also provides climate scientists with an opportunity to test their models against a time interval that experienced both significant volcanism and (perhaps) solar insolation variations. Such studies provide information on the ability of models to simulate climates and also provide a valuable backdrop to the subsequent 20th century warming that was driven primarily from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. Although solar variability has often been considered the primary agent for LIA cooling, the most comprehensive test of this explanation (Hegerl et al., 2003) points instead to volcanism being substantially more important, explaining as much as 40% of the decadal-scale variance during the LIA. -
Observed Climate Variations and Change
7 Observed Climate Variations and Change C.K. FOLLAND, T.R. KARL, K.YA. VINNIKOV Contributors: J.K. Angell; P. Arkin; R.G. Barry; R. Bradley; D.L. Cadet; M. Chelliah; M. Coughlan; B. Dahlstrom; H.F. Diaz; H Flohn; C. Fu; P. Groisman; A. Gruber; S. Hastenrath; A. Henderson-Sellers; K. Higuchi; P.D. Jones; J. Knox; G. Kukla; S. Levitus; X. Lin; N. Nicholls; B.S. Nyenzi; J.S. Oguntoyinbo; G.B. Pant; D.E. Parker; B. Pittock; R. Reynolds; C.F. Ropelewski; CD. Schonwiese; B. Sevruk; A. Solow; K.E. Trenberth; P. Wadhams; W.C Wang; S. Woodruff; T. Yasunari; Z. Zeng; andX. Zhou. CONTENTS Executive Summary 199 7.6 Tropospheric Variations and Change 220 7.6.1 Temperature 220 7.1 Introduction 201 7.6.2 Comparisons of Recent Tropospheric and Surface Temperature Data 222 7.2 Palaeo-Climatic Variations and Change 201 7.6.3 Moisture 222 7.2.1 Climate of the Past 5,000,000 Years 201 7.2.2 Palaeo-climate Analogues for Three Warm 7.7 Sub-Surface Ocean Temperature and Salinity Epochs 203 Variations 222 7.2.2.1 Pliocene climatic optimum (3,000,000 to 4,300,000 BP) 203 7.8 Variations and Changes in the Cryosphere 223 7.2.2.2 Eemian interglacial optimum (125,000 to 7.8.1 Snow Cover 223 130,000 years BP) 204 7.8.2 Sea Ice Extent and Thickness 224 7.2.2.3 Climate of the Holocene optimum (5000 to 7.8.3 Land Ice (Mountain Glaciers) 225 6000 years BP) 204 7.8.4 Permafrost 225 7.9 Variations and Changes in Atmospheric 7.3 The Modern Instrumental Record 206 Circulation 225 7.9.1 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Influences 226 7.4 Surface Temperature Variations and -
Sea-Level Changes Over the Past 1,000 Years in the Pacific Author(S): Patrick D
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of the South Pacific Electronic Research Repository Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. Sea-Level Changes over the past 1,000 Years in the Pacific Author(s): Patrick D. Nunn Source: Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 14, No. 1 (Winter, 1998), pp. 23-30 Published by: Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4298758 . Accessed: 11/09/2013 18:35 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Coastal Research. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 144.120.8.19 on Wed, 11 Sep 2013 18:35:10 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions JournalofCoastal Research 14 J 1 23-30 RoyalPalmBeach, Florida Winter1998 Sea-Level Changes over the Past 1,000 Years in the Pacific1 Patrick D. Nunn Department of Geography The University of the South Pacific P.O. Box 1168 Suva, FIJI ABSTRACTI Nunn, P.D., 1998. Sea-level changes over the past 1,000 years in the Pacific.Journal of CoastalResearch, 14(1), 23- ,S $00 ?00O av 30. -
The Little Ice Age and the Coming of the Anthropocene
Asian Review of World Histories 2:1 (January 2014), 1-16 © 2014 The Asian Association of World Historians doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12773/arwh.2014.2.1.001 The Little Ice Age and the Coming of the Anthropocene Ji-Hyung CHO Ewha Womans University Seoul, Korea (Republic of) [email protected] Abstract This paper examines the historical relationship between the Little Ice Age and the Anthropocene, which has not yet been studied. The Little Ice Age is the coldest multi-century period in the Holocene. The reforestation of huge farmlands, abandoned due to pandemics in the Americas, aggravated the cooling weather of the Little Ice Age. It was in the long and severe cold of the Little Ice Age that the transition from renewable energy to non-renewable energy was completed in Britain in the latter part of the eighteenth century, and when the pattern of linear growth in greenhouse gas concentrations was forged in the ecosystems of the Earth. The Little Ice Age forced humans to depend on fossil fuels while the advent of warmer and more stable climate in the Holocene enabled them to start agriculture in an energy revolution 11,000 years ago, thus making the coming of the Anthropocene possible. Keywords Anthropocene, Little Ice Age, greenhouse gas, wood, coal, fossil fuel, climate change In the last 11,000 years of human history, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the coldest multi-century period and one of several global mil- Downloaded from Brill.com09/29/2021 01:24:16AM via free access 2 | ASIAN REVIEW OF WORLD HISTORIES 2:1 (JANUARY 2014) lennial-scale climate anomalies.1 The cooling climate and alpine glacial advances were recognized in many areas around the globe. -
Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Research
Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Research... http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/us/ties-to-corporate-cash... http://nyti.ms/1DIYhU3 SCIENCE Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher By JUSTIN GILLIS and JOHN SCHWARTZ FEB. 21, 2015 For years, politicians wanting to block legislation on climate change have bolstered their arguments by pointing to the work of a handful of scientists who claim that greenhouse gases pose little risk to humanity. One of the names they invoke most often is Wei-Hock Soon, known as Willie, a scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who claims that variations in the sun’s energy can largely explain recent global warming. He has often appeared on conservative news programs, testified before Congress and in state capitals, and starred at conferences of people who deny the risks of global warming. But newly released documents show the extent to which Dr. Soon’s work has been tied to funding he received from corporate interests. He has accepted more than $1.2 million in money from the fossil-fuel industry over the last decade while failing to disclose that conflict of interest in most of his scientific papers. At least 11 papers he has published since 2008 omitted such a disclosure, and in at least eight of those cases, he appears to have violated ethical guidelines of the journals that published his work. The documents show that Dr. Soon, in correspondence with his corporate funders, described many of his scientific papers as “deliverables” that he completed in exchange for their money. -
The Not Climate Change Collapse Dynas
12 Anderson The Not So Little Little Ice Age 13 The Little Ice Age produced climatic conditions of severe The Not cooling and increased natural disasters during the decline of the Climate Change Yuan Dynasty and the Ming Dynasty, triggering unrest in both the . Yuan and Ming people. The devastating climatic effects of the Collapse 1ng Little Ice Age led to serious economic, political, and social problems for both dynasties, resulting in a weakened government, Dynas dissatisfied and aggravated population, and depressed economic MARY ANDERSON state. 3 Did the Little Ice Age initiate the collapse of two consecutive Chinese dynasties: the Yuan dynasty and the Ming dynasty, although their downfalls were almost 3 00 years apart? The term "Little Ice Age" was coined by Dutch-born The decline of the Yuan dynasty in 1279 is paralleled with the American geologist F. E. Matthes in 1939 to describe the unstable decline of the Ming dynasty in 1678 nearly three centuries later climate interval during the Late Holocene linked with the period of from the analogous affects of the Little Ice Age. dramatic mountain-glacier expansion and retreat. 1 The period is With interest regarding China's path towards becoming a traditionally defined as the early 14th century through the mid 19th world power increasing in historical debates today, the research on century, although regions strongly impacted during this time Chinese dynastic cycles has received a rise in attention. Climate greatly varied on the timeline. The Yuan dynasty and the Ming change has also become an increasingly hot topic due to current dynasty are two distinguished Chinese dynastic cycles that both and predicted changes in temperatures, rainfall patterns, storm 4 fell during peaks of the Little Ice Age in China.