Climate Change And The Power Industry - A Literature Research - by Dr. rer. nat. Rüdiger Beising October 2006 1st Revision, March 2007 Issued by: VGB PowerTech e.V. To be obtained from: VGB PowerTech Service GmbH Publishing house for technological-scientific papers Postfach 10 39 32, D-45039 Essen Tel. +49-(0)201 8128-200 Fax +49-(0)201 8128-329 Email: [email protected] 2 3 Table of contents Preface / Summary 7 1 The Climate of the Earth 18 1.1 Atmosphere 18 1.2 Hydrosphere 20 1.3 Cryosphere 21 1.4 Geosphere 21 1.5 Biosphere 21 2 The Carbon Dioxide Circulation 23 2.1 Geosphere 24 2.2 Ocean 24 2.3 Atmosphere 25 2.4 Biosphere 25 3 The Radiation Budget and the Greenhouse Effect 27 3.1 Radiation Balance 27 3.2 Radiative Forcing 28 3.3 The Greenhouse Effect 29 4 Natural Influencing Factors on the Climate 33 4.1 The Sun 33 4.1.1 Solar Radiation 34 4.1.2 Cosmic Particle Radiation and Geomagnetic Field 38 4.2 Volcanoes 41 4.3 North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO 43 4.4 Southern Oscillation El Niño – ENSO 46 4.5 Thermohaline Circulation (THC) 47 4.6 Natural Greenhouse Gases 49 5 Anthropogenic Influencing Factors on the Climate 50 5.1 Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases 50 5.1.1 Water Vapour (H2O) 54 5.1.2 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 55 5.1.3 Methane (CH4) 57 5.1.4 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 60 5.1.5 Ozone 61 5.1.6 F-Gases and Halogenated Hydrocarbons (FC, CFC, HFC) 62 5.1.7 Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) 64 5.1.8 Indirect, Ozone-Forming Greenhouse Gases 64 5.1.8.1 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) without Dinitrogen Oxide 64 5.1.8.2 Organic Compounds without Methane (NMVOC) 65 5.1.8.3 Carbon Monoxide (CO) 65 5.2 Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) 66 5.3. Aerosols 67 5.4 Changes in the Use of Land 72 6 Climate Observation 74 6.1 Temperature Trend near Ground Level 74 6.1.1 Average Global Temperature Trends 75 6.1.2 Warming Trends of the Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Data 76 6.1.3 The Past 420,000 Years - Climate History 77 6.1.4 The Past 10,000 Years - Climate History 78 6.1.5 The Past 1000 Years - The Hockey-Stick Discussion 78 6.1.6 Urban Heat Islands 81 6.2 Regional Climate Changes 82 4 6.2.1 Climate Trend in Asia 84 6.2.2 Climate Trend in Europe and Germany 85 6.3 Troposphere - Satellite Measurement 87 7 Climate Research Institutes and Programmes 91 7.1 IPCC 91 7.1.1 The IPCC Working Groups 92 7.1.2 Important Findings of the 3rd and 4th IPCC Report (TAR, AR4) 94 7.2 Research Programmes 96 8 Climate Models and Model Results 97 8.1 Climate Models 97 8.1.1 Coupled Atmospheric Circulation Models 99 8.1.2 Earth System Models 101 8.1.3 Uncertainties in the Climate Model Calculations 102 8.2 Results of Model Calculations 104 8.2.1 Emission Scenarios 104 8.2.2 Climate Projections for TAR (2001) - Model Results 106 8.2.3 Climate Projections for AR4 (2007) - Model Results 107 8.2.4 Regional Model Esulta 109 8.2.5 Detection of the Greenhouse Effect - Influencing Factors on Model Calculations 111 9 Impacts of Climate Change 115 9.1 Temperature Extremes 116 9.2 Precipitation, Floods 117 9.3 Storms and Hurricanes 118 9.3.1 Storms 118 9.3.2 Hurricanes (Tropical Cyclones) 120 9.4 Ice 123 9.4.1 Glaciers 123 9.4.2 Antarctica 125 9.4.3 Arctic 126 9.4.4 Greenland 129 9.5 Ocean 130 9.5.1 Warming and Acidification of the Seas 130 9.5.2 Sea Level Rise 131 9.6 Climate Impacts on Mankind, Nature and Environment 133 9.6.1 Damage – Statistics, Costs 134 9.6.2 Health 138 9.6.3 Benefits 140 9.7 "Hazardous Climate Change" 141 10 Emissions from Energy Conversion and Energy Transport 143 10.1 Emissions of Water Vapour, Waste Heat 144 10.2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 145 10.3 Methane Emissions 150 10.4 Dinitrogen Oxide Emissions 151 10.5 Ozone Emissions 151 10.6 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 151 10.7 Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds without Methane (NMVOC) 152 10.8 Carbon Monoxide Emissions 153 10.9 Sulphur Hexafluoride Emissions 153 10.10 Sulphur Dioxide Emissions 153 10.11 Emissions of Fine Dust 154 5 11 Geoengineering and Reforestation 155 11.1 Fertilising with Iron in order to Increase Growth of Algae 155 11.2 Reforestation 156 11.3 Tillage 156 12 Carbon Dioxide Reductions in the Power industry 157 12.1 Efficiency Improvement 157 12.2 Renewable energies 159 12.3 Nuclear Energy 162 12.4 Emissions Trading 162 12.5 Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 165 12.5.1 CO2 Capture 166 12.5.2 Transport of Captured CO2 167 12.5.3 Storage 167 12.5.4 Conversion/Use of CO2 168 12.5.5 Cost Estimate 169 13 Resumée 171 14 Glossary 172 15 Abbreviations 183 16 Selected Literature 186 16.1 Books, Brochures 186 16.2 Articles (selection of literature, particularly after the IPCC Report 2001) 187 17 Internet Addresses 208 18 Annex – Statements about Climate Change 209 6 7 Preface On 2nd of February, 2007 the ‘Summary for Policymaker’ of the 4th Assessement Re- port (AR4), Working Group I (The Physical Scientific Basis), IPCC was published. The whole report will be published in the course of 2007. To that end, a first update of the literature research was performed. The findings of the literature research of October 2006 were confirmed in a wide range. The main statements and figures of AR4 were included and some new results from papers which were published since October 2006 and new statistical values for 2006, as far as available, were added, too. 10.03.2007 Preface For decades, the power industry has been concerning itself with the climate change, al- though the power industry is globally for 25 % of the greenhouse gas emission responsible and the German industry for about only 1 % of the world-wide carbon dioxide emissions. The carbon dioxide emissions which are inevitably connected to the combustion of fossil fu- els, doubtlessly contribute to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. In addition to the extent of their contribution to the greenhouse effect, its possible consequences are also of utmost importance. The first time that the working group "CO2 and the climate" of the VDEW researched the lit- erature about this topic was as early as at the end of the 1980s. Owing to the constantly growing scientific findings, in 1991 and in 1995 updates of this literature research were made. Yet, this topic has become ever more important, which on the one hand is due to the great amount of new findings, and on the other hand due to the Kyoto Protocol which entered into force in 2005. The power generating industry was faced with new challenges due to the political decisions concerning the establishment of reduction targets and the emissions trade meanwhile introduced at EU level. Therefore, a new update was urgently required. The present research is a completely revised edition which became necessary due to the large number of new findings. The objective of this study is a fundamental representation of the scientific contexts and the current level of the scientific climate discussion. The develop- ment of the global, national and local climate-relevant emissions, as well as the possibilities for reducing the carbon dioxide emissions caused by the power industry will also be dealt with extensively. On the basis of the 3rd IPCC report 2001 (TAR), many publications in sci- entific journals and reports of different institutes were analysed up to October 2006. Only those which are most important for this study appear in the literature list. In our times which are strongly influenced by the media, it is not always easy to see how far science has really advanced. Time and again, news concerning seemingly new scientific context create confusion, especially if they contradict the contexts that had been generally assumed so far, or if the new findings are modified only a short time after they had been pre- sented. In the meantime, science itself is affected by the media hype, and each new bit of knowledge is published in press releases which often are exaggerated. It can be generally observed that in the last 25 years the climate scientists have detected a greater variability in the natural climate pattern of the past 1000 years, but that there is also an increase in the signs for an anthropogenic contribution to the climate changes that are taking place at present. This statement is also contained in the new 4th IPCC report (AR4). The annex lists an overview of the statements by scientific associations concerning the cli- mate change. The power industry is affected by a climate change in manifold ways, not only because of the higher costs for a power generation with reduced or without CO2 emissions or by the costs for the emission certificates, but also by the repercussions of the climate change itself. Higher temperatures in winter reduce the number of heating days, but lead to an increase in the en- ergy consumption in summer due to an extended operation of air conditioning systems. 8 Changes in the water level of rivers - low as well as high water - may influence the power generation of the hydroelectric power plants, or the shipping of fuels to the power plants.