Peter T. Bobrowsky Hans Rickman Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society an Interdisciplinary Approach Peter T

Peter T. Bobrowsky Hans Rickman Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society An Interdisciplinary Approach Peter T. Bobrowsky Hans Rickman (Editors)

Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society

An Interdisciplinary Approach

With 85 Figures, 46 in Color Editors

Dr. Peter T. Bobrowsky Geological Survey of Canada Landslides and Geotechnics ESS/GSC-CNCB/GSC-NC/EDS Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth Street K1A 0E8 Ottawa, ON Canada E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Hans Rickman Uppsala Astronomical Observatory Box 515 SE-751 20 Uppsala Sweden E-mail: [email protected]

Library of Congress Control Number: 2006934201

ISBN-10 3-540-32709-6 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN-13 978-3-540-32709-7 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitations, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplica- tion of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copy- right Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be ob- tained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law.

Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springeronline.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.

Cover design: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg Typesetting: Klaus Häringer, Stasch · Bayreuth ([email protected]) Production: Agata Oelschläger

Printed on acid-free paper 30/2132/AO – 5 4 3 2 1 0 Preface

The International Council for Science (ICSU) recently recognized that the societal implications (social, cultural, political and economic) of a comet/asteroid impact on Earth warrants an immediate consideration by all countries in the world. Given the paucity of information on this important issue, ICSU thus contacted the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and the International Union for Geological Sciences (IUGS) to address the topic on behalf of the global science community. This volume provides a summary of opinions regarding the controversy of fact vs. fiction in dealing with comet and asteroid impacts. Each contribution provides a timely state-of-the-art and state-of-the-science synthesis regarding the likelihood and implications of past, present and future comet/asteroid impacts and their effect on human society. Individual chapters represent a wide range of disciplines, specialties and topics which are either directly or indirectly related to impact events. In this way, this book differs considerably from previous comet/asteroid impact books as well as most other natural hazard volumes that commonly focus on a single discipline of study. Our goal in compiling this volume was to ensure that representatives from ancillary disciplines (anthropology, archaeology, economics, geography, atmospheric sciences, political science, psychology and so on) had the opportunity to contribute to the discussion by astronomers and geologists and therefore broaden the restrictive vision normally ac- corded to topical discussions of natural hazards. Our aim is to widen the appeal of the subject of natural hazards to include specialists that deal with the subject but lack an appreciation of the related implications surfacing from other disciplines. Moreover, the papers were written with the non-scientist in mind, with the expectation to better inform and educate decision makers, politicians and the general public at large about the diverse nature of the physical and social consequences which have in the past, and will in the future, arise from an impact of a comet or asteroid with our planet Earth. This volume is clustered into three parts comprising 33 chapters. The focus of this book provides those individuals interested in multi-hazard interdisciplinary research a concise appraisal of what is currently known regarding the threat of comet/asteroid impacts, the likelihood and magnitude of such events in the future, an historic review of past impacts based on geological, archaeological and anthropological evidence, an elaboration on the likely physical effects of a significant impact, the ecological and atmospheric effects following an impact, the psycho-sociological implications associated with risk, hazards and disasters as well as the financial, economic and insurance consequences of a catastrophic impact on our planet. VI Preface

Part one covers the ancient (geology), prehistoric (archaeology) and historic (anthropology) record of comet and asteroid events. This includes papers on popular culture and the use of tree ring studies in modern research as well as a review of the analogies of mega catastrophes resulting from volcanic eruptions. Part two contains contribu- tions focused on the status of near-earth object (NEO) surveys, current knowledge of NEO populations in space, physical properties of NEOs, the quantitative risk of impacts and risk reduction scenarios, the physical terrestrial effects of impacts, the atmospheric and oceanic (tsunami) effects of impacts, case studies including the Kaali meteorite and Tunguska events and cryometeors. Part three examines the social science of near-earth objects, perceptions of risk, dynamic risk assessment, social perspectives on hazards, social vulnerability, the potential collapse of society, disaster planning, insurance coverage, economic consequences, communicating impact risk to the public, impact risk communication management, international policies on NEOs and the future of NEO research. In April 2004 Hans Rickman of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and Peter Bobrowsky of the International Union for Geological Sciences (IUGS) met with a few key representatives of the comet/asteroid professional community in Paris under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU). At that time, the group was encouraged by ICSU to consider collaboration in an interdisciplinary effort on the subject of comet/asteroid impacts and human society. ICSU was very interested in supporting a research proposal relevant to the topic that explicitly included individuals in broadly allied fields of study that were not normally included in discussions on this subject. The intent of the proposal was to provide an open platform of discussion and interaction between astronomers, geologists, anthropologists, archaeologists, econo- mists, sociologists, geographers, psychologists, journalists and many others interested in natural hazards, disaster management, risk assessment and ancillary fields of study, but focussed specifically on the potential psycho-social and physical consequences of a catastrophic comet or asteroid impact on Earth. Following the initial meeting in April of 2004, IAU and IUGS coordinated a formal proposal submission to ICSU for a Class II grant. Representatives from allied unions including IUGG (International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics), IGU (International Geographic Union) and IUPsyS (Inter- national Union of Psychological Science) agreed to contribute to the working efforts of the project. Similarly, specialists in other disciplines including anthropology, archaeology, medicine, and so on, but not official representatives of their respective ICSU unions also agreed to contribute to such a project. Shortly thereafter, ICSU approved the grant proposal. An Advisory group consisting of the following individuals was struck: Harry Atkinson (UK NEO Task Force), Clark Chapman (Member at Large), Viacheslav Gusiakov (IUGG), Wing-Huen Ip (COSPAR), Michael MacCracken (SCOR) and Stefan Michalowski (OECD). Invitations were then sent to noted specialists in varied disciplines to participate in a week long retreat which included technical presentations, break- out group discussions, interactive debates and a local field trip. The retreat was held in early December 2004 in La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain with the local support of Mark Kidger and the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias. The Editors are most grateful to Dr. Kidger and the staff and management of the institute for their kind support in facilitating this important meeting. Preface VII

As an outcome of the workshop, a summation of the current state of the art and science on the subject and a discussion of related key political questions on the hazard lead to the development of a “white paper”. This compilation, aimed as a background document for politicians, is to appear as a separate published document. At the same time, all invited participants were asked to submit a technical manuscript summariz- ing their specialty, in a format that addressed the multi-disciplinary nature of the meeting. This volume represents the end product of this effort and thus addresses the outputs identified in the original proposal to ICSU. This volume represents the collective efforts of a great number of individuals. Most importantly, the Editors recognize the hard work of the contributing authors to clearly capture the key issues of their field of expertise and structure this information in a broadly informative nature readable by others outside their field of interest. The Edi- tors also appreciate the support and work of the editorial staff at Springer Verlag who helped them deal with the difficult process of managing modern techniques in copy- editing. Finally the Editors wish to thank all those individuals who kindly provided their time and effort as critical reviewers for the submitted papers; in some cases re- viewing several different papers. The critical reviews were important to us and the book, as they add a level of technical acceptability even when some of the opinions of some of the authors were contentious. Each manuscript was initially reviewed by Peter Bobrowsky and/or Hans Rickman and at least two other impartial persons. As a con- sequence of this referee process, several papers originally submitted to this volume were rejected and are not included in the published volume. The list of reviewers in alphabetical order were: Johannes Andersen, Joe Arvai, Mark Bailey, Elizabeth Barber, Tony Berger, John Birks, Bill Bottke, Edward Bryant, Andrea Carusi, David Carusi, Alberto Cellino, Clark Chapman, Rejean Couture, Curt Covey, John Davis, Robert Dimand, Eric Elst, David Etkin, Marten Geertsema, John Grattan, Richard Grieve, Peter Horn, David Huntley, Monica Jaramillo, Ruthann Knudson, David Kring, Howard Kunreuther, Jose Lozano, Brian Marsden, Bruce Masse, Jay Melosh, Patrick Michel, Millan Millan, Urve Miller, David Morrison, Jon Nott, Andrei Ol’khovatov, Effim Pelinovsky, Benny Peiser, Juri Plado, Alex Rabinovich, Barrie Raftery, Marko Robnik, Paul Slovic, Richard Spalding, Doug Stead, Duncan Steel, John Twigg, Juha Uitto, Giovanni Valsecchi, Don Yeomans, Fumi Yoshida, Ben Wisner, and Colin Wood. We acknowledge the support of our respective institutes (Geological Survey of Canada and Uppsala Astronomical Observatory), Unions (International Union of Geo- logical Sciences and International Astronomical Union) and families for providing us the valuable time needed to pursue this important activity.

Peter Bobrowsky Hans Rickman

November 2006 Contents

Part I · Anthropology, Archaeology, Geology ...... 1

1 The Geologic Record of Destructive Impact Events on Earth ...... 3 1.1 Introduction ...... 3 1.2 General Character of the Record ...... 3 1.2.1 Spatial Distribution ...... 4 1.2.2 Age Distribution ...... 4 1.2.3 Size Distribution ...... 4 1.2.4 Terrestrial Cratering Rate ...... 5 1.2.5 Periodic Impacts ...... 5 1.3 Recognition of Terrestrial Impact Structures ...... 6 1.3.1 Morphology ...... 6 1.3.2 Geology of Impact Structures ...... 7 1.3.3 Geophysics of Impact Structures ...... 11 1.4 Impacts in the Stratigraphic Record ...... 12 1.5 Impacts and the Biosphere ...... 13 1.5.1 Early Life ...... 13 1.5.2 Coupling through the Atmosphere and Hydrosphere ...... 13 1.5.3 Local and Mass Extinctions ...... 17 1.5.4 Threat to Humanity ...... 18 1.6 Concluding Remarks ...... 18 Acknowledgments ...... 20 References ...... 20

2 The Archaeology and Anthropology of Quaternary Period Cosmic Impact ...... 25 2.1 Introduction ...... 25 2.2 The Quaternary Period Cosmic Impact Record ...... 27 2.2.1 Documented Impact Structures ...... 27 2.2.2 Validated Holocene Crater-Forming Impact Events ...... 29 2.2.3 Airbursts, Tektites, and Impact Glass Melts ...... 32 2.2.4 A Sample of Current Studies of Potential Late Quaternary–Holocene Period Terrestrial Impact Sites ...... 34 2.2.5 Oceanic Impacts ...... 38 X Contents

2.3 Oral Tradition, Myth, and Cosmic Impact ...... 39 2.3.1 The Nature and Principles of Myth and Oral Tradition ...... 40 2.3.2 Using Myth to Identify and Model South American Cosmic Impacts . . . 42 2.3.3 Modeling the Flood Comet Event – a Hypothesized Globally Catastrophic Mid-Holocene Abyssal Oceanic Comet Impact ...... 46 2.4 Epilog and Conclusions ...... 61 2.4.1 Candidate Abyssal Impact Structure ...... 61 2.4.2 Post-Workshop Final Thoughts ...... 63 Acknowledgments ...... 64 References ...... 65

3 The Sky on the Ground: Celestial Objects and Events in Archaeology and Popular Culture ...... 71 3.1 Introduction ...... 71 3.2 The Archaeological Record ...... 72 3.2.1 Architecture ...... 72 3.2.2 Artifacts and Rock Art ...... 72 3.2.3 Oral Tradition ...... 73 3.3 Celestial Objects in Popular Culture ...... 74 3.3.1 Astrology in Popular Culture ...... 74 3.3.2 Art and Literature ...... 76 3.3.3 Other Examples ...... 82 3.4 Garnering Public Support ...... 83 3.4.1 Public Awareness and Support through Cinematic Film ...... 83 3.4.2 Public Education ...... 84 3.5 Conclusions ...... 85 Acknowledgments ...... 85 References ...... 86

4 Umm Al Binni Structure, Southern Iraq, As a Postulated Late Holocene Meteorite Impact Crater ...... 89 4.1 Introduction ...... 89 4.2 Geological Setting ...... 90 4.3 Origin of the Umm Al Binni Structure ...... 94 4.4 New Satellite Imagery ...... 95 References ...... 101

5 Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused by Comet Debris ...... 105 5.1 Introduction ...... 105 5.2 The Historical Record ...... 108 5.3 Mythology ...... 110 5.4 What Actually Happened – the Global Consequences? ...... 112 5.5 The Dust and Corrupted Air ...... 112 Contents XI

5.6 The Scientific Prior Hypothesis ...... 114 5.7 The AD540 Symptoms ...... 115 5.8 Linkages to Other Events ...... 118 5.9 Conclusion ...... 119 Acknowledgments ...... 120 References ...... 120

6 The GGE Threat: Facing and Coping with Global Geophysical Events . . . 123 6.1 Introduction ...... 123 6.2 Volcanic Super-Eruptions ...... 125 6.3 The Toba Super-Eruption ...... 127 6.4 Reassessment of the Super-Eruption Threat ...... 128 6.5 Collapsing Ocean-Island Volcanoes and Mega-Tsunami Formation ...... 129 6.6 Volcano Instability and Structural Failure ...... 129 6.7 Environmental Triggers of Ocean-Island Volcano Collapse ...... 130 6.8 Tsunami Generation from Ocean-Island Volcano Collapses ...... 131 6.9 Contemporary North Atlantic Mega-Tsunami Risk ...... 133 6.10 High-Frequency GGEs ...... 134 6.11 Addressing the GGE Threat ...... 136 References ...... 138

Part II · Astronomy and Physical Implications ...... 143

7 The Asteroid Impact Hazard and Interdisciplinary Issues ...... 145 7.1 Introduction ...... 145 7.2 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) ...... 147 7.3 Consequences of NEA Impact ...... 150 7.4 Mitigation: Deflection and/or Disaster Management and Response ...... 154 7.5 Perceptions of the Impact Hazard ...... 156 7.6 Societal Impacts ...... 157 7.6.1 The News Media ...... 158 7.6.2 Religion ...... 159 7.6.3 The Military ...... 159 7.6.4 Science ...... 160 7.7 Hazards Research/Disaster Management ...... 161 References ...... 162

8 The Impact Hazard: Advanced NEO Surveys and Societal Responses . . . 163 8.1 Background ...... 163 8.2 The Spaceguard Survey ...... 164 8.3 Sub-Kilometer Impacts ...... 166 8.4 Communication and Miscommunication ...... 168 8.5 Public Policy Issues ...... 169 Acknowledgments ...... 171 References ...... 172 XII Contents

9 Understanding the Near-Earth Object Population: the 2004 Perspective ...... 175 9.1 Introduction ...... 175 9.2 Dynamical Origin of NEOs ...... 176 9.2.1 Near-Earth Asteroids ...... 176 9.2.2 Near-Earth Comets ...... 178 9.2.3 Evolution in NEO Space ...... 179 9.3 Quantitative Modeling of the NEO Population ...... 180 9.4 The Debiased NEO Population ...... 181 9.5 Nearly Isotropic Comets ...... 183 9.6 NEA Size-Frequency Distribution ...... 184 9.7 Conclusion ...... 185 References ...... 185

10 Physical Properties of NEOs and Risks of an Impact: Current Knowledge and Future Challenges ...... 189 10.1 Introduction ...... 189 10.1.1 Key Questions before Impact ...... 189 10.1.2 The True Nature of NEOs ...... 189 10.2 Densities: from Feather to Lead? ...... 190 10.2.1 Determining Mass and Density ...... 190 10.2.2 Typical Results on Densities ...... 190 10.2.3 Open Questions ...... 191 10.3 Structure: from Monoliths to Rubble Piles? ...... 191 10.3.1 Determining the Structure ...... 191 10.3.2 Outer Shape and Structure ...... 192 10.3.3 Porosity and Structure ...... 192 10.3.4 Comets Disruption and Fragmentation ...... 193 10.3.5 Open Questions ...... 194 10.4 Surface Properties: from Sand Dunes to Concrete? ...... 195 10.4.1 Estimating the Surface Properties ...... 196 10.4.2 Typical Results on Surface Properties ...... 196 10.4.3 Open Questions ...... 197 10.5 Knowledge Expected from Future Science ...... 198 10.5.1 Remote Observations and Simulations under Development ...... 198 10.5.2 Future Space Missions ...... 198 10.6 Conclusion ...... 199 References ...... 199

11 Evaluating the Risk of Impacts and the Efficiency of Risk Reduction . . . . 203 11.1 Introduction ...... 203 11.2 Near-Earth Objects Surveys ...... 204 11.2.1 The Problem of Orbit Determination ...... 205 11.3 Checking for Impact Possibilities ...... 206 11.4 Eliminating Virtual Impactors ...... 207 11.4.1 Decrease of the Risk Estimate ...... 208 Contents XIII

11.5 Deflection ...... 208 11.5.1 Kinetic Energy Deflection ...... 208 11.6 Conclusions ...... 209 References ...... 210

12 Physical Effects of Comet and Asteroid Impacts: beyond the Crater Rim ...... 211 12.1 Introduction: the Impact Hazard ...... 211 12.2 Local and Regional Devastation by Impacts ...... 212 12.2.1 Thermal Radiation ...... 213 12.2.2 Seismic Shaking ...... 214 12.2.3 Ejecta Deposition ...... 215 12.2.4 Airblast ...... 216 12.2.5 Tsunamis from Oceanic Impacts ...... 217 12.3 Global Devastation? ...... 218 12.3.1 The Thermal Pulse from Ejecta Rain Back ...... 218 12.3.2 Dust Loading of the Atmosphere ...... 219 12.3.3 Injection of Climatically Active Gases ...... 220 12.3.4 Indirect Effects of Biological Extinctions ...... 221 12.4 Conclusion ...... 221 References ...... 222

13 Frequent Ozone Depletion Resulting from Impacts of Asteroids and Comets ...... 225 13.1 Introduction ...... 225 13.2 Physical Interactions with the Atmosphere ...... 225 13.3 Chemical Perturbations of the Upper Atmosphere ...... 227 13.3.1 Nitric Oxide Production ...... 227 13.3.2 Lofting of Water ...... 229 13.3.3 Fate of Salt Particles ...... 230 13.3.4 Activation of Halogens from Sea Salt Particles ...... 231 13.3.5 Catalytic Cycles for Ozone Depletion ...... 232 13.3.6 Estimates of Asteroid Impact and Ozone Depletion Frequency . . . . 233 13.3.7 Model of Coupled Chemistry and Dynamics of the Upper Atmosphere ...... 235 13.3.8 Model Results for Injections of Nitric Oxide and Water Vapor . . . . . 236 13.3.9 Possible Test of the Impact-Induced Ozone Depletion Hypothesis ...... 243 Acknowledgments ...... 244 References ...... 244

14 Tsunami As a Destructive Aftermath of Oceanic Impacts ...... 247 14.1 Introduction ...... 247 14.2 Geographical and Temporal Distribution of Tsunamis ...... 249 14.3 Basic Types of Tsunami Sources ...... 251 14.4 Tsunamigenic Potential of Oceanic Impacts ...... 254 XIV Contents

14.5 Operational Tsunami Warning ...... 257 14.6 Detection of Impact Tsunamis by Tide Gauge Network ...... 258 14.7 Geological Traces of Tsunamis ...... 259 14.8 Conclusions ...... 260 Acknowledgments ...... 261 References ...... 261

15 The Physical and Social Effects of the Kaali Meteorite Impact – a Review ...... 265 15.1 Introduction ...... 265 15.2 The Meteorite ...... 266 15.3 Age of the Impact ...... 268 15.4 Effects of the Meteorite Impact ...... 271 Acknowledgments ...... 273 References ...... 273

16 The Climatic Effects of Asteroid and Comet Impacts: Consequences for an Increasingly Interconnected Society ...... 277 16.1 Introduction ...... 277 16.2 The Global Climatic Effects of Large Asteroid or Comet Impacts ...... 280 16.2.1 Injection of Asteroidal and Cometary Material ...... 281 16.2.2 Injection of Dust ...... 281 16.2.3 Injections from Fires ...... 282 16.2.4 Injection of Water ...... 283 16.2.5 Injection of Sulfur Dioxide ...... 283 16.2.6 Injection of Nitrogen Oxides ...... 284 16.3 Potential Weather and Climate-Related Impacts of Small to Modest-Sized Asteroids and Comets ...... 285 16.3.1 Asteroid and Comet Impacts That Do Not Involve a Surface Impact ...... 285 16.3.2 Modest-Sized Asteroid and Comet Impacts That Do Involve a Surface Impact ...... 286 16.4 Discussion ...... 287 References ...... 288

17 Nature of the Tunguska Impactor Based on Peat Material from the Explosion Area ...... 291 17.1 Introduction ...... 291 17.2 Search for the TCB Remnants in the Epicenter Area ...... 291 17.3 Platinum Group Elements (PGE) Investigation ...... 292 17.4 Isotopic Investigations of Light Elements in the Peat ...... 295 17.5 Discussion ...... 297 17.6 Conclusions ...... 298 Acknowledgments ...... 299 References ...... 299 Contents XV

18 The Tunguska Event ...... 303 18.1 Introduction ...... 303 18.2 The Hypotheses ...... 303 18.2.1 Comet or Asteroid? ...... 303 18.2.2 “Non-Traditional” Hypotheses ...... 305 18.2.3 Alternative Approaches ...... 305 18.3 Known Data ...... 309 18.3.1 Objective Data ...... 309 18.3.2 Eyewitnesses Testimonies ...... 314 18.4 Parameters Deduced ...... 316 18.4.1 Explosion Time ...... 316 18.4.2 Coordinates of the Epicenter ...... 317 18.4.3 Trajectory Parameters, Height of the Explosion and Energy Emitted ...... 317 18.5 Tunguska-Like Impacts ...... 320 18.5.1 Recent Models and Impact Frequency ...... 320 18.5.2 Global and Local Damages ...... 324 18.6 Concluding Remark ...... 324 Acknowledgments ...... 325 References ...... 325

19 Tunguska (1908) and Its Relevance for Comet/Asteroid Impact Statistics ...... 331 19.1 What Happened North of the Stony Tunguska River in the Early Morning of 30 June 1908? ...... 331 19.2 The Tectonic Interpretation of the Tunguska Catastrophe ...... 333 19.3 (Other) Recorded Impact Events ...... 335 19.4 (Likely) Tectonic Outbursts ...... 336 19.5 How to Discriminate between Impacts and Outbursts? ...... 336 19.6 Conclusions ...... 338 Acknowledgments ...... 338 References ...... 338

20 Atmospheric Megacryometeor Events Versus Small Meteorite Impacts: Scientific and Human Perspective of a Potential Natural Hazard ...... 341 20.1 Introduction ...... 341 20.2 Megacryometeors ...... 343 20.2.1 Textural, Hydrochemical and Isotopic Characteristics ...... 344 20.2.2 Theoretical Modeling ...... 345 20.3 Megacryometeors Versus Small Meteorite Impacts ...... 346 20.3.1 Comparison of the Rate of Falls during Human Times (Historical Record) ...... 347 20.4 Final Remarks ...... 349 Acknowledgments ...... 350 References ...... 350 XVI Contents

Part III · Socio-Economic and Policy Implications ...... 353

21 Social Science and Near-Earth Objects: an Inventory of Issues ...... 355 21.1 Introduction ...... 355 21.2 Globally Relevant Disasters ...... 355 21.3 Preparation and Response: General Issues ...... 357 21.4 Preparation and Recovery: Planning ...... 359 21.5 Preparation and Response: the Problem of Trust ...... 362 21.6 Preparation and Response: the Problem of Panic ...... 363 21.7 Conclusions ...... 365 Acknowledgments ...... 366 References ...... 366

22 Perception of Risk from Asteroid Impact ...... 369 22.1 Early Work: Decision Processes, Rationality, and Adjustment to Natural Hazards 369 22.2 Stage 2: Psychometric Studies of Risk Perception ...... 371 22.3 Perceptions Have Impacts: the Social Amplification of Risk ...... 373 22.4 Stage 3: Risk As Feelings ...... 374 22.5 Public Perceptions of the Impact Hazard ...... 377 22.5.1 Will the Public Be Concerned about the Impact Hazard? ...... 377 22.5.2 Exploratory Research on Public Attitudes and Perceptions ...... 379 22.6 Where Next? ...... 380 Acknowledgment ...... 381 References ...... 381

23 Hazard Risk Assessment of a Near Earth Object ...... 383 23.1 Background ...... 383 23.2 Defining Risk ...... 384 23.3 Ontology of NEO Hazards ...... 386 23.3.1 Level 1 NEOs ...... 386 23.3.2 Level 2 NEOs ...... 388 23.3.3 Level 3 NEOs ...... 389 23.3.4 Level 4 NEOs ...... 390 23.4 Dynamic Hazard Risk Assessment and Possible Mitigation and Preparedness Strategies ...... 391 23.5 Potential Mitigation, Data Needs, Response, and Prognosis ...... 395 References ...... 397

24 Social Perspectives on Comet/Asteroid Impact (CAI) Hazards: Technocratic Authority and the Geography of Social Vulnerability ...... 399 24.1 Introduction ...... 399 24.2 The Perspective of Social Vulnerability ...... 400 24.3 Regional and Comparative Aspects of CAI Hazards ...... 402 24.3.1 Regional CAI Risks and the Role of Secondary Hazards ...... 403 24.3.2 Comparative Threat Evaluations ...... 405 24.3.3 Uncertain Uncertainties ...... 408 Contents XVII

24.4 Conceptual Issues ...... 408 24.4.1 Limitations of the Agent-Specific Approach ...... 410 24.4.2 Organizational Risk ...... 411 24.5 Concluding Remarks ...... 414 References ...... 415

25 May Land Impacts Induce a Catastrophic Collapse of Civil Societies? ...... 419 25.1 Introduction ...... 419 25.2 Medium–Small Scale Impacts on a European Country: a Case Study ...... 420 25.2.1 Probability of Impact and Objects Properties ...... 421 25.2.2 Level of Damage ...... 421 25.3 The Civil Society As a Complex System ...... 424 25.3.1 Recent Developments in the Science of Complexity ...... 424 25.3.2 What Is a Complex System? ...... 426 25.3.3 The Phase of Catastrophe ...... 427 25.3.4 Main Structures of the Country Social System ...... 427 25.4 Results ...... 429 25.4.1 Consequences of the 13 MT Impact on the Three Points ...... 429 25.4.2 Point 1: Consequences of the 1 000 MT Impact ...... 429 25.4.3 Point 2: Consequences of the 1 000 MT Impact ...... 431 25.4.4 Point 3: Consequences of the 1 000 MT Impact ...... 431 25.5 Discussion ...... 433 Acknowledgments ...... 435 References ...... 435

26 The Societal Implications of a Comet/Asteroid Impact on Earth: a Perspective from International Development Studies ...... 437 26.1 A Mighty Heuristic: Scale, Space and Time ...... 437 26.1.1 Assumptions ...... 438 26.2 Do CAI-Scale Events Have Any Precedents? ...... 438 26.2.1 Adaptation and Resilience ...... 439 26.3 The Perspective of International Development Studies ...... 440 26.3.1 Would “Sustainable Development” Be Enough? ...... 441 26.3.2 A Remaining Big Worry ...... 443 26.4 Some Tentative Conclusions ...... 443 Notes ...... 445 References ...... 446

27 Disaster Planning for Cosmic Impacts: Progress and Weaknesses ...... 449 27.1 Introduction ...... 449 27.2 Probabilities ...... 452 27.3 Goal Setting ...... 454 27.4 Risk Mapping ...... 454 27.5 Safety by Improved Design ...... 456 27.6 Disaster Simulation and Prediction ...... 456 XVIII Contents

27.7 Warning Systems ...... 459 27.8 Disaster Planning ...... 461 27.9 Reconstruction ...... 463 27.10 Summary and Conclusions ...... 465 References ...... 466

28 Insurance Coverage of Meteorite, Asteroid and Comet Impacts – Issues and Options ...... 469 28.1 Introduction ...... 469 28.2 A Brief History of Insurance ...... 469 28.3 Insurance and Natural Hazards ...... 470 28.4 Do Asteroid Impacts Fit within the Principles of Insurance? ...... 470 28.4.1 Scenario 1: Asteroid Impact ...... 471 28.4.2 Scenario 2: Meteoroid Impact (Meteorite) ...... 472 28.5 Insurance Coverage of Asteroid and Meteorite Damage ...... 472 28.6 Assessing the Potential for Damage ...... 474 28.7 Insurers Need to Prepare ...... 475 28.8 The Cost of an Impact ...... 475 28.9 Insurers’ Capacity to Pay ...... 476 28.10 Conclusions ...... 477 References ...... 477

29 The Economic Consequences of Disasters Due to Asteroid and Comet Impacts, Small and Large ...... 479 29.1 Introduction ...... 479 29.2 Necessary Conditions ...... 481 29.3 Scenario Construction ...... 482 29.3.1 Scenario 1 ...... 482 29.3.2 Scenario 2 ...... 483 29.3.3 Scenario 3 ...... 485 29.3.4 Scenario 4 ...... 485 29.3.5 Scenario 5 ...... 487 29.3.6 Scenario 6 ...... 490 29.4 Summary and Conclusions ...... 492 Acknowledgments ...... 493 References ...... 493

30 Communicating Impact Risk to the Public ...... 495 30.1 Introduction ...... 495 30.2 Our Present World: Brief Considerations ...... 495 30.3 Principal Characteristics of NEO Impact Risks ...... 497 30.4 Previous Experiences in Disaster Prevention ...... 499 30.5 To Communicate or to Educate? ...... 499 30.6 A Scheme for Transmission of Information ...... 500 30.7 Conclusions ...... 502 References ...... 503 Contents XIX

31 Impact Risk Communication Management (1998–2004): Has It Improved? ...... 505 31.1 Introduction ...... 505 31.2 1997 XF11 ...... 505 31.3 1999 AN10 ...... 508 31.4 2000 SG344 ...... 509 31.5 2002 MN ...... 510 31.6 2002 NT7 ...... 510 31.7 2004 AS1 ...... 511 31.8 2004 MN4 ...... 515 31.9 2003 QQ47 ...... 516 31.10 Purgatorio Ratio ...... 517 References ...... 519

32 Towards Rational International Policies on the NEO Hazard ...... 521 32.1 Introduction ...... 521 32.2 “The 1997 XF11 Affair” ...... 521 32.3 Putting the Astronomers’ House in Order ...... 522 32.3.1 The Minor Planet Center ...... 523 32.4 From Pure Science into the Real World ...... 524 32.5 Epilog: the True Mess ...... 526 References ...... 526

33 A Road Map for Creating a NEO Research Program in Developing Countries ...... 527 33.1 Introduction ...... 527 33.2 The Crisis ...... 528 33.3 The Opportunity ...... 530 33.4 Conclusion ...... 531 Acknowledgments ...... 532 References ...... 532

Index ...... 533 Contributors

Johannes Andersen

Nordic Optical Telescope Scientific Association and Astronomical Observatory University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark E-mail: [email protected]

M. G. L. Baillie

School of Archaeology and Palaeoecology, The Queen’s University of Belfast Belfast, BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland, UK E-mail: [email protected]

John W. Birks

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado UCB 215 Boulder, CO 80309-0215, USA

William F. Bottke, Jr.

Southwest Research Institute, Suite 400, 1050 Walnut Street Boulder, CO 80302, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Alessandro Carusi

Castelvecchi Publishing House, Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Andrea Carusi

Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica, INAF, Area Ricerac Tor Vergata, Via Fosso del Cavaliere 100 00133 Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Clark R. Chapman

Southwest Research Institute, Suite 400, 1050 Walnut Street Boulder, CO 80302, USA E-mail: [email protected] XXII Contributors

Lee Clarke

Department of Sociology, Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ 08903, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Paul J. Crutzen

Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Joh.-Joachim-Becher-Weg 27 55128 Mainz, Germany and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla, CA 92093-0221, USA

Mohammed H. I. Dore

Climate Change Laboratory, Department of Economics, Brock University St. Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

Harold D. Foster

Department of Geography, University of Victoria, PO Box 3050 STN CSC Victoria, BC V8W 3P5, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

Richard A. F. Grieve

Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0E8, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

V. K. Gusiakov

Tsunami Laboratory, Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics Siberian Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, prospect Akademika Lavrentjeva, 6 Novosibirsk 630090, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Andrew Hallak

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, University of Western Ontario, 20 Richmond Street East Toronto M5C 2R9, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

William T. Hartwell

Desert Research Institute, Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, 755 E. Flamingo Rd. Las Vegas, Nevada 89119, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Atko Heinsalu

Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5 19086 Tallinn, Estonia Contributors XXIII

Michel Hermelin

Universidad EAFIT, Carrera 49 # 7 Sur - 50 Medellin, Colombia E-mail: [email protected]

Kenneth Hewitt

Cold Regions Research Center and Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

Quanlin Hou

Centre of Earth System Science, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences 100039 Beijing, China

Wing-Huen Ip

Institutes of Astronomy and Space Science, National Central University 32054 Chung-Li, Taiwan E-mail: [email protected]

Evgeniy M. Kolesnikov

Department of Geochemistry, Geological Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University 119899 Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Natal’ya V. Kolesnikova

Department of Geochemistry, Geological Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University 119899 Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Paul Kovacs

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, University of Western Ontario 20 Richmond Street East Toronto M5C 2R9, Canada

David A. Kring

Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, Department of Planetary Sciences University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA

Wolfgang Kundt

Argelander-Institut for Astronomy, Department of Astrophysics, Bonn University Auf dem Hügel 71 53121 Bonn, Germany E-mail: [email protected] XXIV Contributors

A. Chantal Levasseur-Regourd

Université P. & M. Curie (Paris VI), Aéronomie CNRS-IPSL, B.P. 3 91371, Verrières, France E-mail: [email protected]

Giuseppe Longo

Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bologna, Via Irnerio 46 40126 Bologna, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Michael C. MacCracken

Climate Institute, 1785 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington DC 20036, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Brian G. Marsden

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Cambridge, MA 02138, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Jesús Martínez-Frías

Planetary Geology Laboratory, Centro de Astrobiologia (CSIC/INTA) associated to the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Ctra. de Ajalvir km. 4 28850 Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid, Spain E-mail: [email protected]

W. Bruce Masse

Cultural Resources Team ENV-EAQ Ecology and Air Quality Group, Mail Stop J978 Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Sharad Master

Impact Cratering Research Group, Economic Geology Research Institute, School of Geosciences University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa E-mail: [email protected]

W. J. McGuire

Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre Department of Earth Sciences, University College London Gower Street London WC1E 6BT, UK E-mail: [email protected] Contributors XXV

H. Jay Melosh

Lunar and Planetary Lab, 429E Space Sciences Building, University of Arizona Tucson AZ 85721-0092, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Andrea Milani Comparetti

Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa via Buonarroti 2 56127 Pisa, Italy

David Morrison

14660 Fieldstone Saratoga CA 95070, USA E-mail: dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov

Anneli Poska

Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5 19086 Tallinn, Estonia

Luca Pozio

University of Rome III, Department of Economics Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Kaare L. Rasmussen

Department of Chemistry, University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 5230 Odense, Denmark E-mail: [email protected]

Raymond G. Roble

High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research PO Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA E-mail: [email protected]

José Antonio Rodríguez-Losada

Departamento de Edafología y Geología, Universidad de La Laguna 38206 La Laguna, Tenerife (Islas Canarias), Spain E-mail: [email protected]

Leili Saarse

Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5 19086 Tallinn, Estonia XXVI Contributors

Roy C. Sidle

Slope Conservation Section, Geohazards Division, Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011, Japan E-mail: [email protected]

Paul Slovic

Decision Research, 1201 Oak Street, Suite 200 Eugene, Oregon 97401, USA E-mail: [email protected]

Giovanni B. Valsecchi

INAF-IASF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100 00133 Roma, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Jüri Vassiljev

Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5 19086 Tallinn, Estonia

Siim Veski

Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5 19086 Tallinn, Estonia E-mail: [email protected]

Ben Wisner

Oberlin College, 173 West Lorain Street Oberlin, OH 44074, USA and Crisis States Programme, Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Gower Street, University College London WC1E 6BT, UK E-mail: [email protected]

T. Woldai

International Institute for Geoinformation Sciences & Earth Observation (ITC) Hengelosestraat 99 P.O. B ox 6 7500 AA Enschede, The Netherlands E-mail: [email protected]

Liewen Xie

Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences 100029 Beijing, China