Driving Scientific Research Into Journalistic Reporting on Forests, Environment and Climate Change
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Andrew Montford's the Hockey Stick Illusion Is One of the Best Science
Andrew Montford‘s The Hockey Stick Illusion is one of the best science books in years. It exposes in delicious detail, datum by datum, how a great scientific mistake of immense political weight was perpetrated, defended and camouflaged by a scientific establishment that should now be red with shame. It is a book about principal components, data mining and confidence intervals—subjects that have never before been made thrilling. It is the biography of a graph. I can remember when I first paid attention to the ―hockey stick‖ graph at a conference in Cambridge. The temperature line trundled along with little change for centuries, then shot through the roof in the 20th century, like the blade of an ice-hockey stick. I had become somewhat of a sceptic about the science of climate change, but here was emphatic proof that the world was much warmer today; and warming much faster than at any time in a thousand years. I resolved to shed my doubts. I assumed that since it had been published in Nature—the Canterbury Cathedral of scientific literature—it was true. I was not the only one who was impressed. The graph appeared six times in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‘s third report in 2001. It was on display as a backdrop at the press conference to launch that report. James Lovelock pinned it to his wall. Al Gore used it in his film (though describing it as something else and with the Y axis upside down). Its author shot to scientific stardom. ―It is hard to overestimate how influential this study has been,‖ said the BBC. -
Climate Change Risk Perceptions of Audiences in the Climate Change Blogosphere
Article Climate Change Risk Perceptions of Audiences in the Climate Change Blogosphere Supplement 1. Climate Change Blogs that Published the Survey 1. ... and Then There’s Physics This blog is run by Ken Rice, a Professor of Computational Astrophysics at the University of Edinburgh. While the blog’s initial goal was to address climate science claims made on Watts Up With That, the blog now has a wider scope on climate change. In 2019, the blog published 100 blog posts. A typical post receives between 50–200 comments approximately. Link to survey: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/a-survey-of-blog- audiences/ 2. Brussels Blog The Brussels Blog is run by Geoff Beacon, who mostly writes about climate science and the need for climate change adaptation and climate mitigation. In 2019, the blog published 32 blog posts. A typical blog post receives between 0-5 comments approximately. Link to survey: http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/a-survey-for-research-at-cambridge-and- wageningen-universities/ 3. Climate Action Australia Climate Action Australia is run by John Pratt, who mostly writes about the need for climate change action and posts about different climate events. A typical blog post receives between 0-5 comments approximately. Link to survey: https://climateactionaustralia.wordpress.com/ 4. Climate Denial Crock of the Week This blog is run by Peter Sinclair, a videographer specializing in issues of climate change and renewable energy solutions. Sinclair has produced more than 100 videos on his blog, which are “sharply satirical and scientifically rigorous responses to the many bits of climate science misinformation, and disinformation, often seen on the internet, which Mr. -
Invitation Letter
Dear [name removed]: On March 2-4, The Heartland Institute will host an International Conference on Climate Change, a three-day conference in New York City bringing together leading scientists, economists, legislators, and policy analysts from around the world to discuss climate change and related issues. I’m writing to ask you to consider being a speaker at the conference. We’ll cover your travel expenses and provide an honorarium of $1,000. Your presentation will be transcribed and published as a chapter in a book in 2008. Dates and Logistics The International Conference on Climate Change will take place at the Marriott Marquis Times Square Hotel, 1535 Broadway, in the Theater District of Midtown Manhattan. The purpose of the conference is to generate international media attention to the fact that many scientists believe forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events are not supported by sound science, and that expensive campaigns to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not necessary or cost-effective. The event will be promoted with paid advertising in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Times, and possibly other publications; news releases, interviews, and other advance communication with major media outlets; on-site accommodations for media, including talk radio show hosts; and same-day webcasting of the presentations during the conference. The Heartland Institute also offers free admission and expense reimbursements to elected officials. We expect a large number of elected officials to attend the event, and total attendance to be about 500. Topics and Format Each speaker will participate on a panel addressing a climate change subtopic. -
Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments
Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments September 2010 Whitepaper available online: http://www.dbcca.com/research Carbon Counter widget available for download at: www.Know-The-Number.com Research Team Authors Mary-Elena Carr, Ph.D. Kate Brash Associate Director Assistant Director Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute Columbia University Columbia University Robert F. Anderson, Ph.D. Ewing-Lamont Research Professor Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University DB Climate Change Advisors – Climate Change Investment Research Mark Fulton Bruce M. Kahn, Ph.D. Managing Director Director Global Head of Climate Change Investment Research Senior Investment Analyst Nils Mellquist Emily Soong Vice President Associate Senior Research Analyst Jake Baker Lucy Cotter Associate Research Analyst 2 Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments Editorial Mark Fulton Global Head of Climate Change Investment Research Addressing the Climate Change Skeptics The purpose of this paper is to examine the many claims and counter-claims being made in the public debate about climate change science. For most of this year, the volume of this debate has turned way up as the ‘skeptics’ launched a determined assault on the climate findings accepted by the overwhelming majority of the scientific community. Unfortunately, the increased noise has only made it harder for people to untangle the arguments and form their own opinions. This is problematic because the way the public’s views are shaped is critical to future political action on climate change. For investors in particular, the implications are huge. While there are many arguments in favor of clean energy, water and sustainable agriculture – for instance, energy security, economic growth, and job opportunities – we at DB Climate Change Advisors (DBCCA) have always said that the science is one essential foundation of the whole climate change investment thesis. -
Session Abstracts for 2013 HSS Meeting
Session Abstracts for 2013 HSS Meeting Sessions are sorted alphabetically by session title. Only organized sessions have a session abstract. Title: 100 Years of ISIS - 100 Years of History of Greek Science Abstract: However symbolic they may be, the years 1913-2013 correspond to a dramatic transformation in the approach to the history of ancient science, particularly Greek science. Whereas in the early 20th century, the Danish historian of sciences Johan Ludvig Heiberg (1854-1928) was publishing the second edition of Archimedes’ works, in the early 21st century the study of Archimedes' contribution has been dramatically transformed thanks to the technological analysis of the famous palimpsest. This session will explore the historiography of Greek science broadly understood during the 20th century, including the impact of science and technology applied to ancient documents and texts. This session will be in the form of an open workshop starting with three short papers (each focusing on a segment of the period of time under consideration, Antiquity, Byzantium, Post-Byzantine period) aiming at generating a discussion. It is expected that the report of the discussion will lead to the publication of a paper surveying the historiography of Greek science during the 20th century. Title: Acid Rain Acid Science Acid Debates Abstract: The debate about the nature and effect of airborne acid rain became a formative environmental debate in the 1970s, particularly in North America and northern Europe. Based on the scientific, political, and social views of the observers, which rationality and whose knowledge one should trust in determining facts became an issue. The papers in this session discuss why scientists from different countries and socio-political backgrounds came to different conclusions about the extent of acidification. -
Internationalizing the University Curricula Through Communication
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 428 409 CS 510 027 AUTHOR Oseguera, A. Anthony Lopez TITLE Internationalizing the University Curricula through Communication: A Comparative Analysis among Nation States as Matrix for the Promulgation of Internationalism, through the Theoretical Influence of Communication Rhetors and International Educators, Viewed within the Arena of Political-Economy. PUB DATE 1998-12-00 NOTE 55p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Speech Communication Association of Puerto Rico (18th, San Juan, Puerto Rico, December 4-5, 1998). PUB TYPE Reports Research (143) Speeches/Meeting Papers (150) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC03 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *College Curriculum; *Communication (Thought Transfer); Comparative Analysis; *Educational Change; Educational Research; Foreign Countries; Global Approach; Higher Education; *International Education IDENTIFIERS *Internationalism ABSTRACT This paper surveys the current situation of internationalism among the various nation states by a comparative analysis, as matrix, to promulgate the internationalizing process, as a worthwhile goal, within and without the college and university curricula; the theoretical influence and contributions of scholars in communication, international education, and political-economy, moreover, become allies toward this endeavor. The paper calls for the promulgation of a new and more effective educational paradigm; in this respect, helping the movement toward the creation of new and better schools for the next millennium. The paper profiles "poorer nations" and "richer nations" and then views the United States, with its enormous wealth, leading technology, vast educational infrastructure, and its respect for democratic principles, as an agent with agencies that can effect positive consequences to ameliorating the status quo. The paper presents two hypotheses: the malaise of the current educational paradigm is real, and the "abertura" (opening) toward a better paradigmatic, educational pathway is advisable and feasible. -
Ngeo170 Commentary.Indd
COMMENTARY To blog or not to blog? GAVIN SCHMIDT is at the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Columbia University 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA; co-founder of RealClimate.org. e-mail: [email protected] Scientists know much more about their fi eld than is ever published in peer-reviewed journals. Blogs can be a good medium with which to disseminate this tacit knowledge. ike it or not, there are certain important from a quick skim of the lively. However, this kind of informal scientific areas, such as climate methodology, a figure or two and the second-stage peer review is vital to change, stem-cell research, principal results. Their experience the need to quickly process the vast genetic modification of food teaches them to pay little attention to amount of information being produced. L or evolution, that attract a the occasional piece of overreach in Scientists from all fields rely on it heavily disproportionate amount of public the last paragraph and to fill in the to make a first cut between the studies attention. This is usually because they are sometimes understated background. that are worth reading in more detail and perceived to have relevance for strongly By contrast, a lay person might focus those that aren’t. held ethical, economic, moral or political much more on the easy-to-understand Scientists writing in blogs can make beliefs. Scientific results in these fields ‘throwaway’ comments, and spend little this context available to anyone who is are therefore parsed extremely closely to time evaluating the usefulness of the interested. -
Sacred Rhetorical Invention in the String Theory Movement
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Communication Studies Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research Communication Studies, Department of Spring 4-12-2011 Secular Salvation: Sacred Rhetorical Invention in the String Theory Movement Brent Yergensen University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/commstuddiss Part of the Speech and Rhetorical Studies Commons Yergensen, Brent, "Secular Salvation: Sacred Rhetorical Invention in the String Theory Movement" (2011). Communication Studies Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research. 6. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/commstuddiss/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Communication Studies, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Communication Studies Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. SECULAR SALVATION: SACRED RHETORICAL INVENTION IN THE STRING THEORY MOVEMENT by Brent Yergensen A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Major: Communication Studies Under the Supervision of Dr. Ronald Lee Lincoln, Nebraska April, 2011 ii SECULAR SALVATION: SACRED RHETORICAL INVENTION IN THE STRING THEORY MOVEMENT Brent Yergensen, Ph.D. University of Nebraska, 2011 Advisor: Ronald Lee String theory is argued by its proponents to be the Theory of Everything. It achieves this status in physics because it provides unification for contradictory laws of physics, namely quantum mechanics and general relativity. While based on advanced theoretical mathematics, its public discourse is growing in prevalence and its rhetorical power is leading to a scientific revolution, even among the public. -
Galileo in Early Modern Denmark, 1600-1650
1 Galileo in early modern Denmark, 1600-1650 Helge Kragh Abstract: The scientific revolution in the first half of the seventeenth century, pioneered by figures such as Harvey, Galileo, Gassendi, Kepler and Descartes, was disseminated to the northernmost countries in Europe with considerable delay. In this essay I examine how and when Galileo’s new ideas in physics and astronomy became known in Denmark, and I compare the reception with the one in Sweden. It turns out that Galileo was almost exclusively known for his sensational use of the telescope to unravel the secrets of the heavens, meaning that he was predominantly seen as an astronomical innovator and advocate of the Copernican world system. Danish astronomy at the time was however based on Tycho Brahe’s view of the universe and therefore hostile to Copernican and, by implication, Galilean cosmology. Although Galileo’s telescope attracted much attention, it took about thirty years until a Danish astronomer actually used the instrument for observations. By the 1640s Galileo was generally admired for his astronomical discoveries, but no one in Denmark drew the consequence that the dogma of the central Earth, a fundamental feature of the Tychonian world picture, was therefore incorrect. 1. Introduction In the early 1940s the Swedish scholar Henrik Sandblad (1912-1992), later a professor of history of science and ideas at the University of Gothenburg, published a series of works in which he examined in detail the reception of Copernicanism in Sweden [Sandblad 1943; Sandblad 1944-1945]. Apart from a later summary account [Sandblad 1972], this investigation was published in Swedish and hence not accessible to most readers outside Scandinavia. -
Tracking Climate Models
TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT**, AND SHAILESH SAROHA*** Abstract. Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geo- physicists, and climate scientists to simulate and predict climate. Given temperature predictions from the top 20 climate models worldwide, and over 100 years of historical temperature data, we track the changing sequence of which model currently predicts best. We use an algorithm due to Monteleoni and Jaakkola that models the sequence of observations using a hierarchical learner, based on a set of generalized Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where the identity of the current best climate model is the hidden variable. The transition probabilities between climate models are learned online, simultaneous to tracking the temperature predictions. On historical data, our online learning algorithm's average prediction loss nearly matches that of the best performing climate model in hindsight. Moreover its performance surpasses that of the average model predic- tion, which was the current state-of-the-art in climate science, the median prediction, and least squares linear regression. We also experimented on climate model predictions through the year 2098. Simulating labels with the predictions of any one climate model, we found significantly im- proved performance using our online learning algorithm with respect to the other climate models, and techniques. 1. Introduction The threat of climate change is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. With the increased threats of global warming, and the increasing severity of storms and natural disasters, improving our understanding of the climate system has become an international priority. This system is characterized by complex and structured phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. -
Countering Skepticism, Denial, and Despair
CHAPTER 7 Countering Skepticism, Denial, and Despair he alarming prospect of not only a hotter world, higher sea levels, more intense T storm events, and flooding, but also increased disease, fresh water and food shortages, supply chain disruptions, and other national and global security stresses may, understandably, trigger a variety of reactions, from denial and despair to fear and sadness. For some, there’s an understandable tendency to look the other way and focus on more immediate concerns. One natural response to being confronted with climate change bad news is to doubt the science or question the scientists. Can it really be as bad as all of that? Are the scientists mistaken? Could they be missing something? Such skepticism is natural and important. Educators often struggle to encourage healthy skepticism and critical thinking among their learners, so when introducing climate and energy topics, finding out what naïve ideas, misconceptions, or doubts they have is an important starting point. Knowing that skepticism is the lifeblood of science, John Cook, an Australian scientist long interested in climate change, started his website Skeptical Science in 2007 as a response to comments by U.S. politicians that climate change was a hoax. Over the years, Cook (2014) and his team have assembled a collection of over 170 arguments against the hoax charge. Their site (http://www.skepticalscience.com) is used by educa- tors and even scientists not familiar with all the current research and is especially help- ful in being able to counter common statements that arise in discussing climate and energy issues. Taking a layered approach by first presenting the myth, then providing a basic as well as more intermediate understanding of the current science countering the myth, the Skeptical Science team analyzed the merit of the arguments in detail. -
Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners
EPA’s Response to the Petitions to Reconsider the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change Division Washington, D.C. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 3.0 Process Issues Raised by Petitioners............................................................................................5 3.1 Approaches and Processes Used to Develop the Scientific Support for the Findings............................................................................................................................5 3.1.1 Overview..............................................................................................................5 3.1.2 Issues Regarding Consideration of the CRU E-mails..........................................6 3.1.3 Assessment of Issues Raised in Public Comments and Re-Raised in Petitions for Reconsideration...............................................................................7 3.1.4 Summary............................................................................................................19 3.2 Response to Claims That the Assessments by the USGCRP and NRC Are Not Separate and Independent Assessments.........................................................................20 3.2.1 Overview............................................................................................................20 3.2.2 EPA’s Response to Petitioners’