DOCSLIB.ORG

Ngeo170 Commentary.Indd

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Ngeo170 Commentary.Indd COMMENTARY To blog or not to blog? GAVIN SCHMIDT is at the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Columbia University 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA; co-founder of RealClimate.org. e-mail: [email protected] Scientists know much more about their fi eld than is ever published in peer-reviewed journals. Blogs can be a good medium with which to disseminate this tacit knowledge. ike it or not, there are certain important from a quick skim of the lively. However, this kind of informal scientific areas, such as climate methodology, a figure or two and the second-stage peer review is vital to change, stem-cell research, principal results. Their experience the need to quickly process the vast genetic modification of food teaches them to pay little attention to amount of information being produced. L or evolution, that attract a the occasional piece of overreach in Scientists from all fields rely on it heavily disproportionate amount of public the last paragraph and to fill in the to make a first cut between the studies attention. This is usually because they are sometimes understated background. that are worth reading in more detail and perceived to have relevance for strongly By contrast, a lay person might focus those that aren’t. held ethical, economic, moral or political much more on the easy-to-understand Scientists writing in blogs can make beliefs. Scientific results in these fields ‘throwaway’ comments, and spend little this context available to anyone who is are therefore parsed extremely closely to time evaluating the usefulness of the interested. A science blog can explain see how they might project on what the technique, or the implications of any that one cold month does not an ice age public feels is a key issue — regardless of missing context. make or elucidate the diff erence between a their true importance. weather forecast and a climate projection. In these high-profile fields, Over time, their archives provide a misstatements and confusions are Blogs provide a rapid, repository of tacit knowledge that common, and scientists can frequently casual, interactive and readers — both lay and scientifi c — can find their work used (and abused) by fi nd invaluable. As in many spheres, the advocates, with the effect of instigating occasionally authoritative credibility and authority of any particular a strong desire among some of the way of commenting on blog must be earned and an audience public for more direct access to the cultivated. Daunting as that may seem, underlying scientific research; a desire current issues, new papers the success of Scienceblogs.com, Cosmic that is not in the least bit satisfied by the or old controversies. Variance or the Panda’s Th umb shows it is occasional newspaper column buried on possible to combine a deep knowledge of a page 17. Blogs are one communication subject with accessibility and popularity. tool that can supply more depth than This is where blogs can help. Much Some may dismiss blogs as being a is found in traditional media. They of the information in any field of science distraction from real scientifi c work, or provide a rapid, casual, interactive is tacit. The latest climate papers do not of egging on the very controversies that and occasionally authoritative way of generally explain why five ensemble we seek to diff use. Th ere is an element commenting on current issues, new members are used in a particular climate of truth to both of these claims. But papers or old controversies. model experiment, or what the ‘wiggles’ the response should not be a return But why read a blog when you can in the curves mean, or why water vapour to the ivory tower. Th at simply leaves go directly to the scientific literature? is treated differently from carbon dioxide the fi eld clear for those who prefer to Unfortunately, access to new findings even though they are both greenhouse confuse rather than enlighten. With the in the traditional way is harder than gases. Scientists generally absorb this importance of science in policy decisions it should be. Many technical papers background knowledge through a kind being more apparent than ever, our ability are behind pay-walls, which make it of osmosis in graduate school. They to do science and enhance its relevance impractical and expensive for unaffiliated continue to pick it up at coffee and over in public life relies on the community’s individuals to read them. More dinner at conferences and workshops as willingness to engage, inspire and inform. importantly, however, even when papers they discuss the latest results. Blogs are one way to do that, and they can are freely available, they often do not These exchanges are often a little excel at providing the context that is so provide the insight expected. rougher and more raw than the genteel oft en missing in other media. Not every A scientist reading a paper can often academic discourse printed in the scientist needs to have one, but maybe appreciate whether it is interesting or journals. They are also more fun and every scientifi c fi eld does. 208 nature geoscience | VOL 1 | APRIL 2008 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2008 Nature Publishing Group .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Tracking Climate Models
    TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT**, AND SHAILESH SAROHA*** Abstract. Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geo- physicists, and climate scientists to simulate and predict climate. Given temperature predictions from the top 20 climate models worldwide, and over 100 years of historical temperature data, we track the changing sequence of which model currently predicts best. We use an algorithm due to Monteleoni and Jaakkola that models the sequence of observations using a hierarchical learner, based on a set of generalized Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where the identity of the current best climate model is the hidden variable. The transition probabilities between climate models are learned online, simultaneous to tracking the temperature predictions. On historical data, our online learning algorithm's average prediction loss nearly matches that of the best performing climate model in hindsight. Moreover its performance surpasses that of the average model predic- tion, which was the current state-of-the-art in climate science, the median prediction, and least squares linear regression. We also experimented on climate model predictions through the year 2098. Simulating labels with the predictions of any one climate model, we found significantly im- proved performance using our online learning algorithm with respect to the other climate models, and techniques. 1. Introduction The threat of climate change is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. With the increased threats of global warming, and the increasing severity of storms and natural disasters, improving our understanding of the climate system has become an international priority. This system is characterized by complex and structured phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated.
    [Show full text]
  • Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners
    EPA’s Response to the Petitions to Reconsider the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change Division Washington, D.C. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 3.0 Process Issues Raised by Petitioners............................................................................................5 3.1 Approaches and Processes Used to Develop the Scientific Support for the Findings............................................................................................................................5 3.1.1 Overview..............................................................................................................5 3.1.2 Issues Regarding Consideration of the CRU E-mails..........................................6 3.1.3 Assessment of Issues Raised in Public Comments and Re-Raised in Petitions for Reconsideration...............................................................................7 3.1.4 Summary............................................................................................................19 3.2 Response to Claims That the Assessments by the USGCRP and NRC Are Not Separate and Independent Assessments.........................................................................20 3.2.1 Overview............................................................................................................20 3.2.2 EPA’s Response to Petitioners’
    [Show full text]
  • SUPERIOR COURT of the DISTRICT of COLUMBIA CIVIL DIVISION MICHAEL E. MANN, PH.D., Plaintiff, V. NATIONAL REVIEW, INC., Et Al., D
    SUPERIOR COURT OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIVIL DIVISION ) MICHAEL E. MANN, PH.D., ) ) Case No. 2012 CA 008263 B Plaintiff, ) ) Judge Natalia Combs Greene v. ) ) Next event: Initial Scheduling Conference NATIONAL REVIEW, INC., et al., ) January 25, 2013 ) Defendants. ) ) DEFENDANTS COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE AND RAND SIMBERG’S SPECIAL MOTION TO DISMISS PURSUANT TO THE D.C. ANTI-SLAPP ACT Pursuant to the District of Columbia Anti-SLAPP Act of 2010, D.C. Code § 16 -5502(a) (“the D.C. Anti-SLAPP Act” or “the Act”), Defendants Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rand Simberg (“CEI Defendants”) respectfully move for an order dismissing the Complaint’s claims against them with prejudice. As set forth in the accompanying memorandum, the CEI Defendants’ commentary on Plaintiff Michael E. Mann’s research and Penn State’s investigation of his research is protected by the D.C Anti-SLAPP Act because it is unquestionably an “act in furtherance of the right of advocacy on issues of public interest,” D.C. Code § 16-5502(a), and Mann cannot demonstrate that his claims are “likely to succeed on the merits,” D.C. Code § 16-5502(b). In the event that this Motion is granted, the CEI Defendants reserve the right to file a motion seeking an award of the costs of this litigation, including attorneys’ fees, pursuant to D.C. Code § 16-5504(a). WHEREFORE, the CEI Defendants respectfully request that the Court grant their Special Motion to Dismiss and enter judgment in their favor dismissing the Complaint’s claims against Defendants Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rand Simberg with prejudice.
    [Show full text]
  • Top NASA Climate Change Expert Retiring 2 April 2013
    Top NASA climate change expert retiring 2 April 2013 government, most notably when the administration of George W. Bush sought to muzzle him in 2005. Gavin Schmidt, deputy chief of the Goddard Institute, was quoted as saying that Hansen "has been at the forefront of almost every conceptual advance in climate in science over 40 years." "The stuff that Jim wrote 20 years ago has set the tone for the whole field [and the] predictions he made have generally worked out very favorably," Schmidt said. (c) 2013 AFP James Hansen (L) joins demonstrators during a protest on global warming on March 19, 2009 in Coventry, England. The pioneering NASA climatologist, one of the first scientists to raise the alarm about global warming, is retiring after 46 years, a colleague confirmed to AFP on Tuesday. Pioneering NASA climatologist James Hansen, one of the first scientists to raise the alarm about global warming, is retiring after 46 years, a colleague confirmed to AFP on Tuesday. Hansen, 72, who headed the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, announced his departure in an email to the New York Times on Monday. The Times reported Hansen was stepping down to allow himself to campaign more aggressively for legislation to cut greenhouse gases. Hansen first rose to prominence in 1988 when his testimony at a highly publicized US Congressional hearing thrust the issue of man-made climate change onto the political agenda. His work has often been attacked by climate change skeptics while his activism has also brought him into conflict with the federal 1 / 2 APA citation: Top NASA climate change expert retiring (2013, April 2) retrieved 29 September 2021 from https://phys.org/news/2013-04-nasa-climate-expert.html This document is subject to copyright.
    [Show full text]
  • Communicating Climate Change: the Importance of the Big Picture
    NOAA Postdoc program 20th Anniversary Communicating Climate Change: The importance of the big picture Gavin Schmidt (Class 6) NASA GISS and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University New York NOAA Postdocs are... Smart BEFORE AFTER Varied in approach, subject Interdisciplinary by nature Knowledgeable about the big picture Excellent candidates for communicating science! Politicized Science 'Scientized'* Politics Science gets politicized when Politics get scientized when scientific results appear to advocates appear to debate the impact vested political, ethical science in order to avoid debating or moral interests the values that underly their positions (*coined by Dan Sarewitz) New results are only seen in the Nothing to do with real scientific public realm to the extent that debate they project onto the 'Science-iness' is used to make a political/ethical/moral question case, not find the truth Cherry-picking, strawmen, red herrings common Consequences? Good: Scientific papers that project onto the perceived debate are easier to get into Nature or Science More media coverage of your work Bad: Scientific papers frequently quoted out of context, distorted Politics is not as nice as science Scientists under much more public scrutiny Media reports not generally accurate - “False Balance”, sensationalism, over-interpretation common Public understanding decreases, trust in science erodes Continual 'debate' about irrelevancies hinders serious discussion Ethical Issues Scientists have a responsibility to avoid public misuse of their work: - avoiding sensationalism, over-extrapolated conclusions - use/misuse for advocacy purposes? How much effort must scientists invest to improve understanding? - press releases, interviews - briefings for policymakers/journalists/lay public - blogs/FAQs/Interactive Q&A etc.
    [Show full text]
  • Comparative Climatology of Terrestrial Planets a Scientific Workshop on the Climates of Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan
    Comparative Climatology of Terrestrial Planets A Scientific Workshop on the Climates of Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan Boulder, Colorado TOPICS June 25-28 2012 (4 days) Climate and atmosphere Clouds, hazes, and precipitation Conveners Interior-surface-atmosphere interactions Eliot Young (SwRI) Solar-atmosphere interactions Mark Bullock (SwRI) David Grinspoon (DMNS) University of Arizona Press edited volume Contact: [email protected] Climate and Atmosphere • What is the observational evidence for climate change on the terrestrial planets? • What is the sensitivity of each terrestrial planet climate changes in forcing due to geology, impacts, and solar output? • How are energy balance and atmospheric dynamics coupled on Venus, Earth, Titan, and Mars? Clouds, Hazes, and Precipitation • What are the mechanisms for cloud formation and dissipation on Venus, Titan, and Mars, in comparison with Earth? • How does the altitude and composition of aerosol layers affect the energy balance of terrestrial planet atmospheres? • What do landforms reveal about the history of precipitation on Mars, Titan, and Earth? Surface-Atmosphere and Solar- Atmosphere Interactions • What is the geologic evidence for climate change on the terrestrial planets? • What does the surface mineralogy suggest about the origin and subsequent alteration of surface rocks on terrestrial planets? • How do sedimentary minerals on Earth, Mars, Venus, and Titan preserve a record of climate change? • How do mantle convection and volcanic outgassing affect climate? • How have the
    [Show full text]
  • MEDIA TRANSCRIPTS, INC. 41 WEST 83Rd STREET NEW YORK, N.Y
    MEDIA TRANSCRIPTS, INC. 41 WEST 83rd STREET NEW YORK, N.Y. 10024 (212) 362-1481 PROGRAM Intelligence Squared U.S. BGT NO. Global warming is not a crisis BEGIN TAPE BRIAN LEHRER I want to introduce to you, Robert Rosenkranz, Chairman of the Rosenkranz Foundation, the sponsor of this evening’s debate, who will make some opening remarks. [APPLAUSE] ROBERT ROSENKRANZ Thank you, Brian, and, and welcome to all of you. I’m Robert Rosenkranz, Chairman of Intelligence Squared, which is an initiative of the Rosenkranz Foundation. With me tonight is Dana Wolfe, the Executive Producer of this, series of debates. I see a number of, uh, a lot of familiar faces in the audience but also a lot of newcomers. So let me just say a word about why we’re, we’re doing this. It’s really with the intention of raising the level of public discourse in this country. It comes from a feeling that, uh, political conversations are just too rancorous and that, this nation could benefit from a forum for reasoned discussion of, key policy issues. The topic tonight is, is one that, uh, has attracted an enormous amount of, of interest. The proposition: Global warming is not a crisis. And the, panelists are going to try to persuade you to vote for or against the motion. Uh, ultimately your votes will decide which side has carried the day. Uh, well, Media Transcripts, Inc. PROGRAM Rosenkranz-Intelligence Squared US-“Global warming is not a crisis” Page 2. why this particular, topic? Senator Barbara Boxer, Al Gore have assured us that on this particular topic the debate is over.
    [Show full text]
  • Thank You for the Invitation to Speak Here
    Do We Know That The 1990s were the warmest decade of the Millennium? Stephen McIntyre March 9, 2009 New York 2009 International Conference on Climate Change [SLIDE] Do we know that whether the 1990s were the warmest decade of the millennium as we so often hear?. In my opinion, no. However, the opposite is also the case: neither do we know that the Medieval Period was warmer than the present. This is because the so-called “proxies” in current use are inconsistent; and, at present, this inconsistency is an insurmountable roadblock to answering the question. Minor changes of even proxy versions from nearby sites can yield opposite medieval-modern differentials. Problems with bristlecone tree rings may be familiar to some of you, but there are equally intractable problems with tree rings in Siberia. While I find these issues interesting both statistically and analytically, I readily concede, as some have argued, that the issue may well not “matter” for the “big problem” – Jor-El and the survival of the species sort of thing. Fair enough. But then policy makers and the public surely have the right to be annoyed at IPCC and others for so prominently featuring what they now say to be an irrelevancy in their public expositions of the AGW problem. [SLIDE] Contrary to later claims at realclimate and similar sites, let there be no doubt that the Mann Hockey Stick was not an incidental appendage to the Third Assessment Report, something that was isolated by skeptics as a weak stray from the flock. It was used over and over and could almost be said to be the logo of the IPCC 2001 report.
    [Show full text]
  • GISS Modele Progress and Plans
    GISS ModelE Progress and Plans WGCM, Princeton, Nov 2016 Gavin Schmidt and team GISS Post-CMIP5 Progress Goddard Institute for Space Studies MJO variability and prediction skill Self-generated QBO Enhancements to forcings (irrigation, volcanic, solar) Better use of single forcing runs Greatly improved ocean/sea ice simulations Planned GISS CMIP6 Configurations Goddard Institute for Space Studies Multiple configs w/variations for DECK runs: 1. GISS-E2.1 (ready) Variations: OMA vs MATRIX; R vs H ocean; L40 vs L96/102 2. GISS-E3 (mid-2017) C90+L96/102, same oceans; self-generated QBO, MATRIX aerosols, M&G cloud microphysics, cold pool convection 3. GISS-E4 (2018?) C180+L96/102, GO2 (GISS Ocean 2) (cubed sphere/ALE vertical) 1JULY 2012 K I M E T A L . 4645 Newly resolved modes I: MJO 1JULY 2012 K I M E T A L . 4645 1JULY 2012GISS$E K I M E T A L .GISS$E2 GISS$E2.1))))4651 GISS$E2.1)))) FIG. 3. Space–time spectrum of the 158N–158S symmetric component of precipitation divided by the background spectrum for (a) GPCP, (b) AR4a, (c) AR5a, (d) C_AR5a, (e) AR5c, (f) AR5a_Ent1, (g) AR5a_Ent1_Re, and (h) AR5a_Ent2_Re. Superimposed are the dispersion curves of the odd-numbered meridional mode equatorial waves for the equivalent depths of 12, 25, and 50 m. data are from the International Best Track Archive the Kelvin, equatorial Rossby wave, and MJO bands for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset (Knapp (the last being defined as wavenumbers 1–3, periods 30– et al. 2010). 60 days) that can be found in the observations (Fig.
    [Show full text]
  • The People Versus the Climate Research Unit (CRU) by Willis Eschenbach
    The People Versus the Climate Research Unit (CRU) by Willis Eschenbach As far as I know, I am the person who made the original Freedom Of Information Act to CRU that started getting all this stirred up. I was trying to get access to the taxpayer funded raw data out of which they built the global temperature record. I was not representing anybody, or trying to prove a point. I am not funded by Mobil, I’m an amateur scientist with a lifelong interest in the weather and climate. I’m not "directed" by anyone, I’m not a member of a right-wing conspiracy. I’m just a guy trying to move science forwards. People seem to be missing the real issue in the discussion of the hacked CRU climate emails. Gavin Schmidt over at RealClimate keeps distracting people by saying the issue is the scientists being nasty to each other, and what Trenberth said, and the Nature "trick", and the like. Those are side trails that he would like people to follow. To me, the main issue is the frontal attack on the heart of science, which is transparency. Science works by one person making a claim, and backing it up with the data and methods that they used to make the claim. Other scientists then attack the claim by (among other things) trying to replicate the first scientist’s work. If they can’t replicate it, it doesn’t stand. So blocking my Freedom of Information request for his data allowed Phil Jones to claim that his temperature record was valid science, even though it has never been scientifically examined.
    [Show full text]
  • Scientists and Sceptics: Blogs, Climate Science and Reproducible Research
    Scientists and Sceptics: blogs, climate science and reproducible research David Nichols Department of Computer Science University of Waikato Hamilton, New Zealand Scientists and Sceptics: blogs, climate science and reproducible research or Watching the sceptics attack the global warming consensus by accusing climate scientists of not being proper scientists or Blogs I’ve been reading for the past few years A longitudinal ethnographic observation of a networked community of practice Data Communities (TDCT) • Starbucks – 1. regular user, no talk, usual drink , not part of community – 2. meet colleague, use their infrastructure, not part of community, bring my own community, library-like • Cheers – Talk to customers and bartenders, serendipities • Gary’s Old Towne Tavern – Access same beer/data – Hate the Cheers community, think they are wrong Topic Overview • Global warming science • Sceptic Community: development & activities • Data and code access • Data quality detectives • Citizen scientists/sceptics: surfacestations.org • Who is in control of the data? • Reproducible research – Replicate or validate or verify or audit The start: MBH98 and MBH99 • Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K., 1998. “Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries”, Nature, 392, 779-787. (GS: 815 cites) • Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. “Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations”, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762. (GS: 811 cites) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, 2001, Summary for Policy Makers, Figure 1b, pg 3 HS in An Inconvenient Truth http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/gore_a1.jpg AIT DVD Faulty y-axis labelling is corrected in the book version http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/gore_a2.jpg Gore, A.
    [Show full text]
  • The PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection: Vision for the Future
    The PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection: Vision for the future gaVin Schmidt1, ValéRie maSSon-delmotte2, and inteRSection Panel memBeRS 1Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, USA; [email protected] 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; [email protected] News Program The PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Working 2) Climate variability over the last of multidecadal variability and its impacts Group is jointly sponsored by PAGES and few millennia on, in particular, hydrology. the Climate Variability and Predictability Well-dated, high-resolution proxy re- (CLIVAR) project of the World Climate Re- constructions and model simulations 4) Hydrological changes and search Programme (WCRP), and plays an incorporating estimates of natural and interactions with the land surface important role in developing and imple- anthropogenic forcings for the last 2 ka Recent observations indicate that the trop- menting the overlapping research inter- offer opportunities to assess the natu- ical realm is expanding with increasing ests of both these programs. The forma- ral decadal to centennial variability and occurrence of drought in the sub-tropics. tion of the Intersection was predicated on forced responses in conditions similar to This trend is projected to continue under the idea that paleoclimate studies provide present. Despite progress in recent years, IPCC AR4 scenarios. There is also consid- a useful adjunct to studies of modern cli- however, important uncertainties and ca- erable evidence suggesting terrestrial cli- mate variability and likely future change. veats exist with regard to both empirical mate variability is strongly influenced by Since its establishment in the mid-1990’s, reconstructions and model estimates.
    [Show full text]