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The Politics of Polling

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The Politics of Polling The Politics of Polling everyday practices of political opinion polling Robin Hughes A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Politics Faculty of Social Sciences The University of Sheffield March 2020 2 3 Abstract Public opinion has long been held as an important concept in politics. Consequently, its measurement, particularly through public opinion polls, is valuable both as a point of democratic principle and of political practicality. Whilst a rich literature exists on opinion polls and opinion data is regularly used for a variety of analyses, there is little available information on the everyday, human activities which drive the production of polling. In this thesis, I present a different view of political polling by engaging with polls at the site of their production and asking the question: what are the everyday practices of political public opinion polling, and what is their significance in understanding political polls? In answering this question, I use an ethnographic approach to provide a narrative account of qualitative data on political polling. This thesis is an exploratory study. It produces empirical data on the practices of polling, and theoretical analyses of how this data can further inform our understandings of political polls. Throughout the thesis, I put forward the argument that the human agency of pollsters is an important, but often overlooked facet of understanding political polls. Significant individual decisions are found to be commonplace in everyday practice, and affect the wording, the type, and the nature of available polls. By providing an account of everyday practices, I am able to demonstrate the ways in which this influence on polling output manifests. I focus on the norms, traditions and values which are mediating forces on everyday practice to present theory with which polling practices can be evaluated and understood. The ethnographic perspective developed throughout the thesis is used to evaluate the scrutiny of political polling. This illustrates the utility of this qualitative approach, its application to broader questions about political polling, and the role of a perspective of everyday activity in a better understanding of this key political tool. 4 5 Acknowledgements Many have supported me through the undertaking of this PhD. This support has been vital, not just in grappling with the academic demands of the process, but also in navigating the strange experience of leaving the familiar and taking a leap into something new. I was luckier than I had any right to be in the time, expertise, and consideration offered by those to whom I provide brief thanks on this page. I was incredibly fortunate to have the most excellent supervisors in Kate and Charles. Their support, encouragement and kindness was monumental and I will be forever thankful for it. These acknowledgements would outweigh the thesis were they to appropriately express my gratitude. Thanks go also to the participants of this research, for allowing me into their working lives and sharing their thoughts and time with me. Their work and enthusiasm was a pleasure to observe, and made the long days worthwhile. Many thanks are extended to my examiners, who provided robust discussion, helpful comments and feedback. Thanks also to the staff within the department, academic and professional, who contributed in numerous ways across the years. In additional, thanks go to the ESRC for the funding which enabled the undertaking of this thesis. The support from all of my family was a huge boost and particular thanks go to my parents, not least for putting up with my presence during the fieldwork of this thesis. There could not be a more friendly PhD community than the one found within the department. Though there are too many to name, I am thankful to each of my colleagues whose friendship has been invaluable and who helped me feel close to the department even when I was at distance. Finally, I thank my partner, who was there for me throughout, inspiring and generous, and who believed that I could make it even when I did not. An adventure well shared. Thank you. 6 7 Table of Contents Chapter 1 - Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 13 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 13 1.2 Thesis Contribution ............................................................................................................... 16 1.3 Polling in the UK: development of the industry ......................................................................... 18 1.4 Definitions and Structure ...................................................................................................... 22 1.4.1 Defining a political poll ....................................................................................................... 22 1.4.2 Structure ............................................................................................................................... 24 1.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 26 Chapter 2 – Literature Review .............................................................................................................. 28 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 28 2.2 The Nature of Public Opinion ..................................................................................................... 29 2.2.1 How is opinion characterised? ............................................................................................. 30 2.2.2 How is opinion formed? ....................................................................................................... 32 2.2.3 How is opinion influenced? ................................................................................................. 34 2.2.4 What are the ways in which public (mass) opinion can be understood? .............................. 39 2.2.5 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 44 2.3 The Function of Public Opinion Polls ......................................................................................... 45 2.3.1 Reporting .............................................................................................................................. 46 2.3.2 Analytical ............................................................................................................................. 49 2.3.3 Predictive ............................................................................................................................. 50 2.3.4 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 52 2.4 The Accounts of Pollsters ........................................................................................................... 53 2.4.1 Testimony ............................................................................................................................ 53 2.4.2 Other Sources ....................................................................................................................... 55 2.4.3 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 57 2.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 58 Chapter 3 – Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 59 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 59 3.2 Theory and Tradition .................................................................................................................. 60 3.2.1 Theory .................................................................................................................................. 60 3.2.2 Tradition ............................................................................................................................... 63 3.3 Methods and Application ............................................................................................................ 66 3.3.1 Participant Observation ........................................................................................................ 67 3.3.2 Interviews ............................................................................................................................. 74 3.3.3 Positionality ......................................................................................................................... 77 8 3.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 78 Chapter 4 – The Context: Polls and Pollsters ....................................................................................... 79 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................
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