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North Dakota Strategic Freight Planning Analysis Phase II: 2006-2008

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North Dakota Strategic Freight Planning Analysis Phase II: 2006-2008 North Dakota Strategic Freight Planning Analysis Phase II: 2006-2008 Prepared for North Dakota Department of Transportation Prepared by Mark Berwick Mark Lofgren Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University Fargo, North Dakota October 2009 Disclaimer The contents presented in this report are the sole responsibility of the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute and the authors. North Dakota State University does not discriminate on the basis of age, color, disability, gender identity, marital status, national origin, public assistance status, sex, sexual orientation, status as a U.S. veteran, race or religion. Direct inquiries to the Vice President for Equity, Diversity and Global Outreach, 205 Old Main, (701)231-7708. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Biennial Strategic Freight Analysis Program concentrated on North Dakota‘s freight growth and freight system over the last biennium. The goal of this study was to provide information pertaining to freight and freight growth as it has occurred over the past 50 or 60 years. The highway system that exists in North Dakota was developed long ago for lower freight volumes moving in smaller vehicles over short distances. A system of freight transportation and logistics that provides for the efficient movements of goods is the key to the economic health of the world, our nation, regions within the country, individual states, and communities and rural areas. North Dakota‘s inflation adjusted Gross State Product more than tripled from 1963 to 2005. Many sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GSP. This dramatic growth in the economy results in large increases in freight. Tonnage of agriculture production more than tripled from the 1940s to present on a decade average annual basis. Factors contributing to the increases in tonnage include inputs that contribute to higher crop yields. Crop choices also contributed to higher tonnages. Changes from small grains to sugarbeets, potatoes, or even corn change the tonnage coming off the land. For instance 50 bu. wheat nets about 3,000 lb. per acre, but sugarbeets can produce 20 tons per acre or more, equating to 40,000 lb. Higher production has led to larger and heavier trucks on all roads, and these trucks may travel longer distances per trip. However, it should be pointed out that larger, heavier trucks may do less damage than smaller trucks hauling the same amount of product over a fixed network. Changes have also occurred in the manufacturing sector. From the 1960s to the present, the state grew manufacturing employment by 144%. While it is easy to quantify agricultural tonnage, it is more difficult to equate manufacturing in terms of tonnage. Commodity flow and FAF provide estimates on the state level, but county level data is elusive. It can easily be seen that because the manufacturing sector nearly tripled employee numbers statewide, the tonnage of freight moving over the transportation system would have more than tripled. The mining industry in the state is made up of mostly coal mining and oil and gas production. Coal is a relative constant as the demand for electricity is increasing and regulated and the price for the product is relatively constant. Therefore, coal-fired energy plants mine the coal and turn it into electricity. Oil and gas exploration is a volatile industry. Oil was first discovered in Williams County in western North Dakota in the early 1950s, and that discovery provided incentive for the first oil boom in the state. Beginning in the early 2000s, oil exploration and production is again on the rise in North Dakota as energy prices have increased to all time record highs. Technology and innovation have provided for oil extraction in the Bakken formation using horizontal drilling and production techniques that were unavailable in the past. This drilling and production technique has provided successful well completion at a pace that was previously unachievable. Oil exploration and production is mostly in western North Dakota, which is the deepest part of the Williston Basin. Coal mining is mostly in the central part of the state. Where coal mining has a low impact on the highway system, the oil industry has a large impact on the highway system. This study provided information about the increases in freight over time. The data reveal the needs for the infrastructure that was developed some 50 to 80 years ago. As freight traffic increases so does the need for infrastructure. Transportation is the core of many of the businesses in the state, and without improving the infrastructure future growth may be hampered. The agricultural sector will continue to grow along with the oil and gas and mining. As these sectors grow so will all aspects of the economy. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. FREIGHT DISTRIBUTION IN NORTH DAKOTA ........................................................................ 1 1.1 North Dakota Freight Analysis Phases ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 Phase 2 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. NORTH DAKOTA TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................. 3 2.1 Highways ......................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Railroads .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Air .................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Pipelines ........................................................................................................................................... 8 3. NORTH DAKOTA ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................... 9 4. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 15 4.1 County Level Production ............................................................................................................... 16 4.2 High Tonnage Crops ...................................................................................................................... 20 4.2.1 Corn ....................................................................................................................................... 22 4.2.2 Sugarbeets ............................................................................................................................. 24 4.2.3 Potatoes ................................................................................................................................. 29 4.3 Farm Inputs .................................................................................................................................... 31 5. LIVESTOCK ...................................................................................................................................... 39 5.1 Cattle .............................................................................................................................................. 39 5.2 Dairy .............................................................................................................................................. 43 5.3 Hogs ............................................................................................................................................... 44 5.4 Sheep .............................................................................................................................................. 47 6. MANUFACTURING ......................................................................................................................... 49 7. MINING .............................................................................................................................................. 55 8. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... 61 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 65 APPENDIX A: INTELLIGENT TRANSPORATION SYSTEMS ................................................... A-1 APPENDIX B: OIL & GAS EXPLORATION AND ACTIVITY ...................................................... B-1 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 North Dakota Railroad System Mileage (2005)..................................................................... 7 Table 3.1 Sector Contribution to Gross State Product ......................................................................... 11 Table 3.2 Year Over Year Sector Growth ............................................................................................ 11 Table 3.3 Sector Share of Total GSP ................................................................................................... 13 Table 4.1 Growth in North Dakota Crop Production by County 1940s to 2000s ................................ 17 Table 4.2 County Production of Top Crops, Annual Decade Average Production Tons .................... 18 Table 4.3 Top Crop by County and Tonnage, 2000s Average Annual Production ............................. 20 Table 4.4 Irrigated Acres by County ...................................................................................................
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