Final Report COVERS.P65
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Integrated Assessment Results to Support Policy Decisions in Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania POLEYC Project (Policy Options for Livestock-based livelihoods, and EcosYstem Conservation) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA and the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program (GL-CRSP) University of California, Davis Integrated Assessment Results to Support Policy Decisions in Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania POLEYC Project (Policy Options for Livestock-based livelihoods, and EcosYstem Conservation) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA and the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program (GL-CRSP) University of California, Davis June 2002 Integrated Assessment Results to Aid Policy Decisions in Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania By the POLEYC Project (Policy Options for Livestock-based livelihoods, and EcosYstem Conservation) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA and the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya of the GL-CRSP (Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program) University of California, Davis Prepared by Randall B. Boone and Shauna B. BurnSilver Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory a POLEYC Principle Investigators: James E. Ellis (deceased), David M. Swift, Michael B. Coughenour, and Kathleen A. Galvin, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Regional Principle Investigators: Allan J. Kijazi, Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority, Ngorongoro, Tanzania (Tanzanian Coordinator), and Jenesio I. Kinyamario, Department of Botany, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya (Kenya Coordinator) Other Principle Personnel: Robin S. Reid and Philip K. Thornton, International Livestock Research Institute June 2002 Copies of this report may be optained from the Global Livestock CRSP, University of California, Davis, California 95616, or see http://glcrsp.ucdavis.edu/ Front cover photos by Kathy Galvin and Randy Boone, back cover art by Randy Boone, portrait on this page by Jim DeMartini. Dedication This report is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Jim Ellis (October 1938 to March 2002), the architect of the POLEYC project. Jim’s vision of people, livestock, and wildlife existing harmoniously in sustainable landscapes continues to guide our work. His ease, skill, and experience were evident whether he was communi- cating with the world’s most recognized ecologists, listening to land managers describe the concerns they must balance, or responding respectfully to a Maasai elder. To learn more about Jim’s many contributions, please see http://nrel.colostate.edu/events/ellis.html a See Appendix A for full titles and institutional associations of project personnel TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... i Abbreviations........................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................. iv Executive summary ................................................................................................................. v 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 2. POLICY QUESTIONS ................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 What is the capacity of NCA to support large herbivores?................................................ 5 2.1.1 Annual rainfall ................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Monthly rainfall ................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3 Management zones........................................................................................... 10 2.1.4 Spatial analyses ................................................................................................ 16 2.1.5 Ecological modeling ........................................................................................ 17 2.1.6 Limitations ....................................................................................................... 18 2.1.7 Estimates of appropriate stocking evaluated.................................................... 20 2.2 Where is cultivation in Ngorongoro Conservation Area?................................................ 21 2.3 What is the balance between wildlife, livestock, and human populations? .................... 27 2.4 What are potential effects of cultivation in NCA? .......................................................... 30 2.5 What are the effects of controlling livestock disease?..................................................... 38 3. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 45 4. LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................................... 47 Appendix A Team Members and Institutional Participants in POLEYC ........................................ 51 Appendix B NCA portion of the POLEYC January 2002 trip report.............................................. 57 Appendix C Handouts used in presentations, with some KiSwahili ............................................... 62 POLEYC project of the Global Livestock CRSP i ABBREVIATIONS AE - Adult equivalent ETM - Enhanced Thematic Mapper (Landsat 7 satellite sensor) GIS - Geographic Information System GL-CRSP - Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program LHU - Large Herbivore Unit (250 kg of body mass) NCA - Ngorongoro Conservation Area NCAA - Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority PHEWS - Pastoral Household Economic Welfare Simulator POLEYC - Policy Options for Livestock-based livelihoods, and EcosYstem Conservation TLU - Tropical Livestock Unit UNESCO - United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization LIST OF TABLESa Table 1 Current large herbivore population estimates on NCA.......................................................... 6 Table 2 Estimates of appropriate stocking on NCA, based on Coe et al. (1976) ............................... 8 Table 3 Estimates of appropriate stocking on NCA, based on McNaughton et al. (1989)................. 9 Table 4 Estimates of appropriate stocking on NCA, based on Oesterheld et al. (1992) .................. 10 Table 5 Estimates of appropriate stocking on NCA based on monthly rainfall ............................... 12 Table 6 Estimates of appropriate stocking based on management zones .................................... 14-15 Table 7 Summary of appropriate stocking estimates ........................................................................ 20 aThe table legends shown are partial or paraphrased versions of the actual tables. Refer to the tables for full legends. POLEYC project of the Global Livestock CRSP ii LIST OF FIGURESa Figure 1 Ngorongoro Conservation Area and the surrounding area ............................................. 1 Figure 2 Human and livestock populations, and their ratio ........................................................... 3 Figure 3 Monthly net aboveground primary productivity............................................................ 11 Figure 4 Monthly estimates of plant productivity and herbivore biomass ................................... 11 Figure 5 Management zones within Ngorongoro Conservation Area ......................................... 13 Figure 6 Summary of estimates of appropriate stocking ............................................................. 19 Figure 7 Example images and cultivation mapping in NCA .................................................. 23-25 Figure 8 Mapped cultivation in NCA in February 2000 ............................................................... 26 Figure 9 Wildlife and livestock populations at different human populations ............................... 29 Figure 10 Cultivation maps used in modeling ................................................................................ 31 Figure 11 Cultivation maps used in modeling, with cultivation in two blocks .............................. 32 Figure 12 Livestock and wildlife biomass with and without cultivation........................................ 33 Figure 13 Cattle distributions with and without cultivation ........................................................... 34 Figure 14 Effects of cultivation from 0 to 50,000 ac on livestock and wildlife ............................. 34 Figure 15 Supplemental foods required by increasing human populations .................................... 35 Figure 16 Cash reserves for rich households with different human populations............................ 36 Figure 17 Livestock biomass with current and blocked cultivation ............................................... 36 Figure