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Averting Global War This Page Intentionally Left Blank Averting Global War Averting Global War This page intentionally left blank Averting Global War Regional Challenges, Overextension, and Options for American Strategy Hall Gardner averting global war Copyright © Hall Gardner, 2007. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-0-230-60085-0 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner what- soever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in criti- cal articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by palgrave macmillan™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world. palgrave macmillan is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-0-230-60086-7 ISBN 978-0-230-60873-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230608733 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gardner, Hall. Averting global war : regional challenges, overextension, and options for American strategy / Hall Gardner. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. War—Prevention—International cooperation. 2. Conflict management—Case studies. 3. Geopolitics. I. Title. JZ6387.G37 2007 355'.033073—dc22 2007018466 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Scribe Inc. Cover painting “Timocrat” by Hall Gardner First edition: December 2007 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For my family, once again Upon the breaking and shivering of a great state and empire, you may be sure to have wars. The great accessions and unions of kingdoms do likewise stir up wars; for when a state grows to an over-power, it is like a great flood, that will be sure to overflow.... When a warlike state grows soft and effeminate, they may be sure of a war. For commonly such states are grown rich in the time of their degen- erating; and so the prey inviteth, and their decay in valor, encourageth a war. —Francis Bacon (1561–1626), “Of Vicissitude of Things” This page intentionally left blank Contents Preface ix Introduction “Crying Wolf” Once Again? 1 Chapter 1 Triptych of Terrorism 13 Chapter 2 The Uncoordinated NATO-EU “Double Enlargement”: Toward the Isolation of Russia? 37 Chapter 3 Iraq: Sinking Deeper into Mesopotamian Quicksand 65 Chapter 4 Iran: Nuclear High Tension and Holocaust Polemics 79 Chapter 5 Israel and Palestinian Fratricide: Beyond the “Two State Solution”? 101 Chapter 6 An Ever-widening Zone of Conflict, Terrorism, and Black Market Activities: From Central Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa 117 Chapter 7 North Korea: Beyond “Backdoor” Multilateralism 141 Chapter 8 China and Blue-water Dreams: Toward a Sino-Russian Alliance? 163 Chapter 9 Three Dimensions of “Montezuma’s Revenge”: Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian Vision, “War on Drugs,”and “Illegal” Immigration 179 Chapter 10 American Hypertrophy and Strategic Options: Toward a Geostrategy for Global Peace 209 Notes 231 Bibliography 271 Index 277 This page intentionally left blank Preface he purpose of Averting Global War: Regional Challenges, Overexten- sion, and Options for American Strategy is to develop a more concilia- T tory U.S. strategy intended to resolve key international disputes and conflicts that have arisen since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon—or at least attempt to transform those disputes and conflicts in such a way that they not further “widen” or possibly draw major pow- ers into confrontation. The book argues that shifting post–cold war alliance and power relationships at the global, regional, and domestic levels; the introduction of revolutionary military technologies and strategies, including asymmetrical tactics of warfare; conflicting irredentist claims; the quest for guaranteed access to energy supplies and trade; and the protection of “vital” spheres of interest and security have all augmented the likelihood of even wider regional conflicts—if not a major power war—given the increasingly fractious nature of major and regional power rivalries coupled with significant acts of “terrorism.” The book accordingly examines both domestic U.S. and international debates and responses to a number of major international disputes, conflicts, and crises. It concludes by arguing that the next U.S. administration, whether Democratic or Republican, will need to work diligently to forge a truly multilateral strategy, along with both “democratic liberal” and “illiberal” major and regional powers, in the formation of cooperative and interlocking patchworks of “regional security communities” that are intended to stabilize—and then develop—volatile areas throughout the planet—if the very real possibility of major power war is to be averted in the not-so-distant future. In attempting to identify differing species of foreign policy makers, I have out- lined an ornithology of hawks, doves, owls, eagles, ostriches, gulls, vultures, super hawks, and chicken hawks whose explicit meanings in reference to U.S. foreign policy are defined in Chapter 10. In the effort to prevent wider conflicts, I have urged American policy makers to adopt an “owlish” geostrategy, with the under- standing that owls as birds of prey represent realists, but they also symbolize fore- sight (in that they can look in all directions) in the Occidental tradition stemming from ancient Greece. And yet, as we are increasingly confronted with multicultural perspectives in this era of “globalization,” I subsequently learned that owls can represent birds of x • Preface ill omen in Arabic and Persian cultures, whereas in ancient Egypt owls were con- sidered more positively as guardians of the Afterworld. In Hebrew folklore, owls symbolize blindness and desolation. One can add that in China the owl is associ- ated with lightning, noise (drums), and energy, implying excessive yang or male- oriented, perhaps military, activities. One could add different meanings for owls in Russia, India, Japan, and elsewhere, plus various organizations that have adopted the owl as an emblem. Even in American culture, screech owls, for exam- ple, can represent the demonic. My point is that what is considered a wise, “owlish” strategy from the Ameri- can and European perspective (although in Polish folklore owls are linked to sick- ness and death!) might not convey wisdom in some of the very countries that most concern this book. It could actually signify the exact opposite of what was intended, hence resulting in misunderstanding and suspicion, if not conflict! It is consequently only through engaged dialogue that that we can begin to under- stand the full meaning(s) of our conceptions, intent, and ultimate goals. It is only through dialogue and diplomacy that we can begin to reach compromise, or at least agree to disagree, without turning to violence to assert our preconceptions and interests. Let us accordingly hope that the owl of the future has enough fore- sight to break significantly with the past so as to take on new meanings, becom- ing the guardian of a global peace dedicated to full human development with a modicum of justice and in more conscientious interaction with the planet’s nat- ural environment. A number of these chapters were based on papers or speeches delivered at var- ious conferences but have been rewritten and integrated in such a way as to form a coherent whole. The first chapter, “Triptych of Terrorism,” was based on my speech at the conference on “Transatlantic Security Dialogue,” organized by the Istituto Affari Internazionali and held on February 28, 2006, in Brussels; my chapter on Russia and NATO was based in part on my presentation on the “wider” Black Sea region at the Cicero Foundation Conference, “The Coming Enlargement with Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia,” held on October 13, 2006, in Paris, while my chapter on “The Three Dimensions of ‘Montezuma’s Revenge’” was based, in part, on my lecture on Central American migration in the United States, again at a Cicero Foundation conference, “Integrating Migrants in Europe,” held in June 2005 in Paris. The original version of my chapter on North Korea was additionally published by the Cicero Foundation in June 2006. My concept of “regional security communities” was developed in my seminar discussion at the October 2006 World Political Forum in Bosco Marengo, Italy, while my chapter on the Iraqi crisis was based in part on my tes- timony, “American Policy toward the ‘Greater Middle East’ after the November 2006 U.S. Mid-Term Congressional Elections,” which was delivered at the Assemblée Nationale for the Commission des affaires étrangères in Paris on Feb- ruary 7, 2007. I would like to thank my editor, Toby Wahl, and the editorial staff at Palgrave for seeing this project through, plus my former student, Jung Woo Lee, for vol- unteering to work on the Index. The views expressed are, of course, my own responsibility..
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