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2020 Nigerian FDI & Cultural Engagement Tour Report Prepared

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2020 Nigerian FDI & Cultural Engagement Tour Report Prepared 2020 Nigerian FDI & Cultural Engagement Tour Report Prepared by Claudia McKoy and Frances Bradshaw June 2020 Building Engaging Communities T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org 2020 NIGERIAN FDI & CULTURAL ENGAGEMENT TOUR REPORT JUNE 2020 AFRICAN TRADE OVERVIEW In the period of 2015-2017, the total trade from Africa to the rest of the world averaged US$760 billion compared with US$481 billion from Oceania, US$4.109 trillion from Europe, US$5.14 trillion from America and US$6.801 trillion from Asia, according to the UNCTAD. The Office of United States Trade Representative (“OUSTR”) reports that in 2018 the leading Sub Saharan Africa (“SSA”) import categories included: Crude Oil (US$8.0 billion in 2018; down 13.6% from 2017), Textiles and Apparel (US$1.2 billion; up 18.4%), Minerals and Metals ($728 million; down 12.3%), Transportation Equipment (US$697 million; down 47.4%), Agricultural Products (US$597 million, up 8.0%), and Chemicals and Related Products (US$486 million, up 51.9%) Africa Renewal - a media partner of the UN - reports that China surpassed the U.S. in 2009 to become the SSA’s largest single trading partner. According to the International Advances in Economic Research’s article ‘Africa's Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers through Trade?’, China made foreign direct investment (“FDI”) in the SSA region that amounted to US$16 billion in 2011. China also stepped up its financial assistance to the region by announcing a credit line of US$20 billion to Africa during the 2012 Forum On China-Africa Cooperation (“FOCAC”). The increasing role of China in SSA reflects “China’s increasing share as a major player in world trade and its historic reorientation toward new markets that started in the last decade,” the IMF reports. As part of its massive expansion in the region, China has set up 6 strategic economic zones: two in Nigeria, one in Mauritius, one in Ethiopia, two in Namibia, and one Egypt. T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org Page: 1 Yet, the US still remains an important influencer in the region. The OUSTR records that US goods exports to Sub-Saharan African countries in 2018 were US$15.9 billion, up 12.8% (US$1.8 billion) from 2017 but down 14.1% from 2008. US exports to the Sub-Saharan African countries account for 1.0% of overall US exports in 2018. While US goods imports from Sub- Saharan African countries in 2018 were US$25.1 billion, up 0.9% (US$218 million) from 2017, but down 70.9% from 2008. US imports from the Sub-Saharan African countries account for 1.0% of overall US imports in 2018. American technological powerhouses too are fighting to establish dominance on the continent. Facebook, for example, is building a 37,000-kilometer long undersea cable around Africa to boost the Internet access on the continent. While the CEO of Twitter and Square [Jack Dorsey] expressed that he wanted to move to Africa for at least 3 months because the continent will ‘define the future’”, according to CNBC. And, McKinsey & Company has now established an Africa Delivery Hub to help develop the continent's social infrastructure by utilizing emerging technologies. While China is currently the continent’s largest single trading partner, the European Union-27 is Africa’s largest export and import partner. In 2016, the European Union-27 had 31% of its exports and 29% of its imports moving to and from the continent. In exports, the European Union-27 was followed by other African countries (16%) and China (11%). In the same year, Africa's exports to the UK stood at US$16.89 billion, registering a marginal 1.96% increase from the previous year's total of US$16.57 billion. While Africa's imports from the UK stood at US$11.40 billion, representing a 5.69% decline from the previous year's total imports of US$112.08 billion, according to TRALAC. With all that being said, Africa’s colonial history continues to play a predominant role in its trade narrative. France remains the key investor in French-speaking Africa, as Portugal and Brazil invest primarily into Portuguese speaking Angola and Mozambique—although on a smaller scale. Internally, the nations of Africa have been moving towards stronger ties and collaboration. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) trade pact was signed in March 2018 and ratified in May 2019. The act forms a continent- wide free-trade area that aims to stimulate more inter-continental trade, scheduled to take effect in July 2020. The trade agreement “removes tariffs on 90 percent of goods, progressively liberalizes trade in services, and addresses a host of other non-tariff barriers”, according to the Washington-based Brooks Institute. T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org Page: 2 NIGERIA: BASIC FACTS The Federal Republic of Nigeria was declared on the 1st of October 1963 President: Muhammadu Buhari Capital: Abuja Population: 204.6 million est. (2020) Nigeria has the third largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under the age of eighteen. Currency: Nigerian naira GDP Per Capita: $6,232 According to worldexports.com, Nigeria’s Top exports in 2019 were: 1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$46.7 billion (87.1% of total exports) 2. Ships, boats: US$3.2 billion (5.9%) 3. Other base metal goods: US$2.1 billion (3.9%) 4. Cocoa: US$311.1 million (0.6%) 5. Oil seeds: US$299.7 million (0.6%) 6. Fertilizers: US$151.7 million (0.3%) 7. Fruits, nuts: US$113.4 million (0.2%) 8. Tobacco, manufactured substitutes: US$103.7 million (0.2%) T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org Page: 3 9. Raw hides, skins not fur-skins, leather: US$75.3 million (0.1%) 10. Aircraft, spacecraft: US$69.8 million (0.1%) According to worldexports.com, Nigeria’s Top imports in 2019 were: 1. Machinery including computers: US$9 billion (18.9% of total imports) 2. Mineral fuels including oil: US$7.4 billion (15.6%) 3. Vehicles: US$5.6 billion (11.9%) 4. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$3.7 billion (7.9%) 5. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $3.4 billion (7.1%) 6. Plastics, plastic articles: US$1.5 billion (3.2%) 7. Glass: US$1.5 billion (3.2%) 8. Pharmaceuticals: US$1.5 billion (3.1%) 9. Cereals: US$1.3 billion (2.8%) 10. Articles of iron or steel: US$1 billion (2.1%) Thus, Nigeria tends to import high valued manufactured goods while exporting raw materials and commodities. Famous Nigerians include: Fela Kuti, Afrobeat and human rights advocate and Wole Soyinka, author and first Black African to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1986. T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org Page: 4 NIGERIA-CANADIAN RELATIONS Nigeria’s top trading partners include Brazil, China, India, Japan, US and the European Union. Canada, however, is ranked Nigeria’s 31st trading partner, at 0.1% of FDI stock in 2017. Yet, in 2018, Canada welcomed more than 11,000 Nigerian students—making Nigeria Canada’s most important source of international students from Sub-Saharan Africa according to the Government of Canada. The Government of Canada also reports that in 2018, Nigeria was Canada’s second-largest bilateral merchandise trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa, with bilateral merchandise trade totalling $948.4 million. Canadian merchandise imports from Nigeria totalled $480.5 million. Canada’s main imports consist of mineral fuels and oils, cocoa, rubber, lead and processed foods. Meanwhile, Canada’s exports to Nigeria totalled $467.9 million – making Nigeria Canada’s second-largest export market in Africa. Canadian exports to Nigeria include a wide range of products, including vehicles and equipment, wheat, manufacturing equipment, software, aircrafts, and cars. Currently, Canada and Nigeria have a trade agreement, “Agreement Between Canada And The Federal Republic of Nigeria For the Promotion and Protection of Investments”, that has yet to be ratified. According to the Canadian consensus, in 2016 Nigerians only followed Jamaicans and Haitians respectively in having the most number of immigrants of Afro-descent to enter Canada as new immigrants. T. 416.258.5254 • [email protected] • upsurgence.org Page: 5 THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 Like much of the world, the first half of 2020 has not been kind to Nigeria. Its economy is highly dependent on foreign exchange proceeds and the recycling of petrodollars. The nation now suffers a loss of over US$26 billion due to the recent deep decline in the international oil prices along with a depressed global demand for oil, according to the IMF. To make matters worse, the IMF also reports that the impact of COVID-19 on the Nigerian economy has been severe. With a 6% drop in growth, the economy now faces a contraction of 3.4% in 2020. To address these issues, the IMF has provided Nigeria with US$3.4 billion in emergency assistance to support the nation’s healthcare sector, jobs, businesses, and defend its struggling international reserves. In fact, since the City of Brampton’s Nigerian 2020 FDI & Cultural Engagement Tour in February, the Nigerian currency faced devaluations. On March 24, 2020 Bloomberg reported that Nigeria had devalued its Naira by 4%. To further illustrate the Naira’s decline, on February 10th, 2020, the Naira was worth 366.27 NGN to 1 US Dollar. On May 10th, 2020, the Naira was worth 390.13 NGN to 1 US Dollar.
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