Thailand-Myanmar

Review of Indo-Thai-Myanmar Economic & Security co-operation and possibilities for the future. By Air Commodore Sunil Kashinath Vidhate, AVSM VM Indian Air Force Student of National Defence College The National Defence Course : Class 59 Academic Year 2016-2017 ii PREFACE India’s linkages established with Southeast Asia well before Christian Era, grew stronger with passing time and continued well up to eighteen century, before onset of colonization. Despite its naval might India never harboured intentions for territorial conquest. Maritime prowess that was utilised well for commercial purposes also resulted in exchanges in culture, religion and way of life which found easy acceptance because of benign nature of India’s influence and its liberal assurances. Hinduism and Buddhism coexisted for centuries before mainland Southeast Asia became predominantly Buddhist. Seen only in the context of the Trio (India, Myanmar and Thailand) which had additional advantage of being immediate land and/or maritime neighbours, the past association, has undoubtedly bestowed the deep connection through similarities and also differences at various stages of history. However, even after seventy years of decolonization of India and Myanmar, and certain imperatives of being neighbours in interstate relations, cooperation between the Trio seemed inadequate, seen especially in the background of their deep connections of the past. Thailand a well established economy, reforming and rising economy of India, and Myanmar, a new entrant on this path with huge potential and challenges; all three though at different milestones but with a common goal of Growth in an environment of Peace and Stability have their destinies tied in the strategic partnership centered around economic and security cooperation. Myanmar’s recent return to democracy and initiation of long overdue economic reforms makes it even more relevant to analyse the inadequacy of their economic and security cooperation with a view to suggest a way forward towards realization of full potential. While it was difficult to find information on this specific topic in open domain, details of their bilateral iii cooperation have been utilized to suggest a way forward in their trilateral relations. The views expressed are solely of the undersigned, based on the inferences drawn from researched data / information and do not reflect the policy of Government of India or the organization represented by the undersigned. Air Commodore Sunil Kashinath Vidhate Student of National Defence College Course NDC: Class 59 Researcher CONTENTS Page Abstract i Preface ii Acknowledgement iv Contents v Contents of Tables vii Contents of Figures viii Chapter 1 Introduction Background and Importance of the Problem 1 Objectives of Research 7 Scope and Methodology of Research 8 Limitations and Delimitations 9 Research Utilisation 10 Definitions 10 Chapter 2 Related Literature Review and Conceptual Framework Review of Related Literature 11 Indian Linkages: Historical Perspective 13 Historical Linkage with Thailand 14 Historical Linkages with Myanmar 16 Trade with Southeast Asia 18 Religion: Buddhism and its Impact 19 Commonalities and Shared Values to Build up on 22 CONTENTS (Contd) Page Sharing of Land/Maritime Boundaries and 23 Linked Areas of Association Chapter 3 Prevailing Environment and Current Status of Cooperation Initial Consolidation and the Prevailing 28 Domestic Environment ASEAN and other relevant Regional Groupings 39 Geopolitical Situation 52 Current Status of Cooperation 56 Chapter 4 Enhanced Economic and Security Cooperation : Way Forward Trilateral Cooperation 90 Indo-Thai Cooperation 109 Indo-Myanmar Cooperation 125 Thai-Myanmar Cooperation 142 Chapter 5 Conclusion and Recommendations Conclusion 156 Recommendations for Trilateral Cooperation 166 Bibliography 182 Biography 186 CONTENTS OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 India-Myanmar bilateral trade 4 Table 1.2 India-Thailand Bilateral Trade 5 Table 3.1 ASEAN Countries : GDP Comparision 29 Table 3.2 India-Thailand Bilateral Trade Statistics 59 Table 3.3 Indian Investment in Thailand 61 Table 3.4 Thai Investment in India 62 Table 3.5 India-Myanmar Bilateral Trade Statistics 69 Table 3.6 India-Myanmar Border Trade Statistics 69 Table 3.7 Trade Statistics : Thailand with Myanmar 84 Table 4.1 Trade Statistics : Thailand with Myanmar 144 CONTENTS OF FIGURES Page Figure 3.1 Map Indicating India-Myanmar-Thailand 76 Trilateral Highway Figure 4.1 India-Thailand Prime Ministerial Meeting 109 in New Delhi in June 2016 Figure 4.2 Meeting of Vice President of Myanmar & 153 Chief of Defence Forces of Royal Thai Armed Forces 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION “India’s Look East Policy is not merely an external economic policy, it is also a strategic shift in India’s vision of the world and India’s place in the evolving global economy. Most of all it is about reaching out to our civilisational neighbours in South East Asia and East Asia” – Ex-Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh1 Background and Importance of the Problem 1. ASEAN with its diverse ethnic units, ten modern states and two millennia of historic developments has some vital commonalities with India that form the basis of strong bonding between these nations, which if built upon, has phenomenal potential for interstate co-operation that can promote shared values and interests. 2. Looking closer to India’s east; India, Myanmar and Thailand share the tropical, monsoon climate, with all its implications for a way of life, based on irrigated agriculture. Moreover, sharing of geographical and maritime boundaries led to cultural and religious exchanges across the recorded history along with vibrant trade links through both the land and maritime routes. Our national ethos can be said to have been influenced - even molded by centuries of the exchange of people, ideas, culture and commerce. As such, our larger economic, security and geo-strategic interests have always been closely tied to this extended neighborhood. 1 Ex Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh at ASEAN Summit in 2010. 2 3. European involvement in the region and subsequent colonisation of India and Myanmar for roughly two centuries, brought in an almost abrupt halt to the centuries old exchanges, except those dictated by the colonial powers, that too purely in their own national interest. 4. The two decades following World War II could be termed as the era of Decolonisation and Independence. Sovereign nations, then in their nascent stage got on with creating a political, administrative and economic framework which would meet the aspirations of newly freed people. At that time, all the three nations faced similar economic problems: standards of its improving agriculture, promoting industrialisation and raising the living standards of growing and aspiring population. 5. Thailand had a relative lead in development process with its foresighted monarchs (Rama IV and Rama V) undertaking process of modernization in late 19th & early 20th century2. Thailand was also quick in realising the potential and therefore, the need for regional groupings/integration for mutual growth through co-operation and use of collective strength (best option for the developing nations). With its concerted efforts, finally, in 1967 five nations comprising of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Philippines joined to form ASEAN which has grown in strength and stature over the years. Subsequent end of cold war era witnessed major changes in the geopolitical environment. More obvious in the recent past; the centre of global Economic and increasingly even Strategic power could be seen tilting to the EAST. As on date, undoubtedly, Asia is seen as the ‘Engine of Growth’ for the world economy in years to come. 6. India, on its part having grappled with domestic and economic issues, border disputes and conflicts with its neighbours, responded with 2 D R SarDesai, South-east Asia: Past and Present, First ed (New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House Pvt Ltd,1981). P.201 3 long overdue and much needed economic reforms and diversification / reordering of its foreign policy engagements and priorities. India’s ‘Look East Policy’ conceived by then Prime Minister Mr PV Narasimha Rao reflects historical imperatives, economic considerations and Geo-strategic concerns and seeks to optimise our synergies in Asia-Pacific region, with interdependence as main underlying factor for collective growth, lasting peace and stability. Over the years, India’s increased participation in fora like ASEAN, ARF, East Asia Summit, ASEM, BIMSTEC along with parallel engagements with majority of Southeast Asian nations have taken this relationship to a strategic level. As on date, India is well poised to play its contributory role to the growth, stability and security of southeast in particular and east Asia in general. 7. Myanmar after its independence in 1948, has been under military regime for majority of the period leading to sanctions and its isolation from majority of the world. The catastrophic economic programmes under military regime turned Burma into one of the world's most impoverished countries. Since the transition to a civilian government in 2011, Burma has begun an economic overhaul aimed at attracting foreign investment and reintegrating into the global economy. Myanmar with its economic overhaul and commitment to reforms, coupled with its abundant natural resources, young labor force, and proximity to Asia’s dynamic economies is firmly embarked on path of rapid development in coming years.3 India’s Bilateral Relations with

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