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“Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market in Greece and Business Opportunities” “Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market in Greece and Business Opportunities” An IENE Study Project (M47) Final Report Athens, July 2018 Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market in Greece and Business Opportunities Contributors: Main Author, Alexandros Perellis, Research Associate, IENE Contributor, Costis Stambolis, Executive Director, IENE Institute of Energy for SE Europe (IENE) 3, Alexandrou Soutsou, 106 71 Athens, Greece tel: 0030 210 3628457, 3640278 fax: 0030 210 3646144 web: www.iene.gr, e-mail: [email protected] Copyright ©2018, Institute of Energy for SE Europe All rights reserved. No part of this study may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the Institute of Energy for South East Europe. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. [2] Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market in Greece and Business Opportunities July 2018 This IENE Study Project (47) was financially supported by a number of companies and organizations whose valuable contribution and support is acknowledged herewith with great thanks. The following companies acted as sponsors of the present study Disclaimer This document contains the best opinion of the contributors at the time of issue and does not necessarily represent IENE’s official position. Neither IENE nor the sponsor company offer any warranty or guarantee regarding the accuracy of any forecasts, estimates or analyses contained in this report. The contributors, IENE and the sponsor company are not responsible for any liability in association with this content. [3] Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 10 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 24 2. Technology .......................................................................................................................... 27 A. Vehicle Technology ..................................................................................................... 27 B. Battery Technology ..................................................................................................... 37 C Energy Savings and Emission reduction ...................................................................... 57 D Utility Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................ 60 E New Vehicle Technologies ........................................................................................... 61 References ....................................................................................................................... 62 3. EV Market ............................................................................................................................ 70 A. Present of Global EV Market ...................................................................................... 70 B. Global Trends and the Future of EV Market .............................................................. 95 C. Greek EV Market ....................................................................................................... 102 D. Regulations for Electric Vehicles in Greece ............................................................. 117 E South East Europe’s EV Markets ............................................................................... 125 References ..................................................................................................................... 130 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 141 4. Electric Mobility Infrastructure and Charging Stations ................................................... 143 A. Current Charging Technology and Available Charging Infrastructure Worldwide . 143 B. Charging and Safety Issues ....................................................................................... 160 C. The Impact on Power Generation and the Grid from the Gradual Ev Adaptation . 163 D. Smart Charging Strategies ........................................................................................ 170 E. Use of EVs in an Urban Environment: The Case of Paris and other business models ....................................................................................................................................... 179 F. EV Charging considerations for Greece .................................................................... 186 References ..................................................................................................................... 195 5. Cost Analysis of Production and Use of EVs .................................................................... 207 A. Acquisition Cost and Cost of Ownership ................................................................. 207 B. Operational Cost EVs and Displacement of Conventional ICE Vehicles.................. 210 References ..................................................................................................................... 211 6. Environmental impact of EV introduction ....................................................................... 212 A. Environmental Benefits ............................................................................................ 220 B. Decarbonization through Penetration of RES in the Power Generation and EVs .. 242 [4] References ..................................................................................................................... 246 7. Electric Vehicles and Economic Repercussions ................................................................ 252 A. The effect of Electric Mobility Transition on the Employment market ................. 252 B. Electric Vehicles and Economic repercussions in Greece and SE Europe ............... 254 References ..................................................................................................................... 264 8. Key Messages .................................................................................................................... 269 List of Figures Figure 1 EV Operating Energy Flow and Efficiency Diagram .................................................. 27 Figure 2 The typical energy flow of conventional internal combustion engine vehicle ......... 28 Figure 3 Illustration of the electrical traction system of a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) ...................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 4 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) .................................................................................... 30 Figure 5 The drive trains architectures on BEV . ..................................................................... 32 Figure 6 The drivetrains architectures on HEV. ....................................................................... 34 Figure 7 Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) ....................................................................... 36 Figure 8 recharging a battery cell ............................................................................................ 40 Figure 9 Illustration Example of Organic Cathode Battery charging process .......................... 41 Figure 10 Theoretical and Actual Cell Voltages of a variety of Cell Systems .......................... 43 Figure 11 Typical specific energy of lead-, nickel- and lithium-based batteries ..................... 44 Figure 12 Effect Temperature dependence of Voltage on the Battery capacity .................... 46 Figure 13 Illustration of the voltage delay effect during battery discharge ............................ 47 Figure 14 Metallic dendrites formed in Battery ...................................................................... 47 Figure 15 Estimated battery capacity degradation of 16.4 Ah LiFePO4 cell at Crate of 3C for 600 cycles. ............................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 16 Structure of solid state battery cells ....................................................................... 57 Figure 17 60 ton Tractor & Trailer, Full Payload, Freeway at 80 km/h ................................... 60 Figure 18 The Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-2016 ...................................... 70 Figure 19 Updated assessment of battery cost developments. .............................................. 76 Figure 20 Scenario for estimated vehicle and battery pack cost ........................................... 78 Figure 21 Lithium- ion historical and forecasted battery prices ............................................. 78 Figure 22 U.S. medium BEV pre-tax price breakdown, ICE pre-tax price and share of battery costs ........................................................................................................................................ 79 Figure 23 trade flows of key ingredients for battery production ........................................... 80 Figure 24 Major Lithium deposits by type .............................................................................. 80 Figure 25 Chinese domestic battery-grade lithium prices 2015-2016 ................................... 81 Figure 26 Price forecasts for 99.5% & 98.5% lithium carbonate, lithium
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