Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 147 | American Foreign Policy Council

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 147

April 16, 2014

Related Categories: Iran

IRAN PUTS HEZBOLLAH’S HOUSE IN ORDER Iran is actively restructuring its most significant terror proxy. The Islamic Republic has reportedly dispatched a senior military officer (identified only as Mahmoud A.) to Lebanon to oversee major leadership changes in the Shi’ite militia. The move comes on the heels of numerous recent strategic setbacks for the group, including the arrests and investigations of its personnel and reports of informants among Hezbollah’s ranks. (Beirut Daily Star, April 1, 2014)

THE CONTROVERSY OVER ABOUTALEBI Iran’s choice of Hamid Aboutalebi as its next envoy to the United Nations has generated a firestorm of controversy. The diplomatic selection has come under fire because Aboutalebi was a participant in the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis, serving as a translator and negotiator for the hostage-takers after the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran. His role in those events was enough to produce a rare unanimous vote in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, which have formally passed legislation barring individuals found to be engaged in espionage, terrorism or considered a threat to national security from entering the U.S.

The Iranian regime, for its part, is standing behind its selection. Iran's foreign ministry has condemned the Congressional action as being "in contravention of international law, the obligation of the host country and the inherent right of sovereign member states to designate their representatives to the United Nations." (Washington Times, April 10, 2014; CNN, April 12, 2014)

IRAN FIGHTS THE DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has urged the country's parliament to end subsidies for vasectomies and other birth control measures as a way of boosting national fertility. Currently, some 70 percent of Iran’s 77 million person population is under the age of 35. Khamenei has expressed hopes that - with the proper social engineering - Iran has the capacity "to become at least 150 million people, if not more." At the same time, however, he has warned that if remedial steps are not taken, the country risks becoming a nation of “elderly people in the not too distant future.” (London Guardian, April 15, 2014)

[EDITORS' NOTE: Khamenei's initiative sheds light on the Iranian government's efforts to to ameliorate its increasingly bleak demographics. The CIA World Factbook on Intelligence currently estimates the Islamic Republic's "total fertility rate" at 1.85 - significantly below the "replenishment" rate of 2.1 required to keep national populations stable.]

IRANIAN ENERGY: OUT OF THE BOX Iran’s crude exports have reached their highest levels in 20 months, exceeding the one million barrel-per-day limit set by the interim nuclear deal reached in November with Western powers - and doing so by as much as 650,000 barrels. China, India, and South Korea continue to be the largest customers for Iranian crude, with China importing some 168,000 barrels per day. As a result, Iran’s current exports are at their highest level since June 2012. (Arab News, April 12, 2014)