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UNOSAT Mount Agung Potential Volcanic Eruption Scenario, Bali, Indonesia

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UNOSAT Mount Agung Potential Volcanic Eruption Scenario, Bali, Indonesia UNOSAT Mount Agung Potential Volcanic Eruption Scenario, Bali, Indonesia. Population exposure analysis 27 September 2017 Geneva, Switzerland UNOSAT Contact: Postal Address: Email: [email protected] UNITAR – UNOSAT, IEH T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations) Chemin des Anémones 11, 24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998 CH-1219, Genève, Suisse UNITAR-UNOSAT | Mount Agung Volcanic Eruption Scenario, Bali, Indonesia 27 September 2017| Population Exposure Analysis Overview: According to the Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Agung volcano in Bali has been showing elevated signs of unrest in the form of increasing volcanic seismicity over the past six weeks, starting from August 10th. CVGHM raised the alert level from 1 (normal) to 2 (warning) on 14 September 2017, to 3 (eruption imminent) on 18 September 2017, and to the highest level 4 on 22 September 2017, at 8:30pm local time1. For Level 4 ('Awas" level) the People living in Hazard Zones III, II, and I must be evacuated and obey the local government regulation base on technical recommendation issued by authorized institution according to guidelines. UNOSAT has produced a population exposure analysis based on Volcanic Hazard Zonation Model Developed by CVGHM2 in three hazards categories I, II, III. The administrative boundaries from BPS 2013 data and WorldPop 2015 gridded population were used for generating localised exposures. As all the statistics produced below are generated based on Hazard Model, the actual figures after the eruption may significantly vary. Estimated Population Exposure to Volcanic Hazard: Total population of Population Exposed to Population Exposed to Population Exposed to Bali Hazard Zone I Hazard Zone II Hazard Zone III ~4.1 million ~100,000 ~57,000 ~36,000 The table below shows population exposure estimation based on Volcanic Hazard areas deduced from CVGHM model, at administrative unit 3. For specific details about the hazard categories see the next page. Population Exposed to Total Population of Exposed Admins Hazard Zone I Hazard Zone II Hazard Zone III Areas BALI 99,833 56,805 36,242 4,074,408 KARANG ASEM 76,727 56,805 36,242 405,684 ABANG 2,938 1,744 169 39,754 BEBANDEM 14,695 2,309 3,650 33,856 KARANGASEM 41,611 - - 92,730 KUBU 1,131 48,371 22,460 102,142 MANGGIS 1,290 - - 52,240 RENDANG 5,127 875 3,447 37,744 SELAT 7,568 3,481 6,515 26,838 SIDEMEN 2,368 26 - 20,381 KLUNGKUNG 23,105 - - 145,838 DAWAN 10,455 - - 36,670 KLUNGKUNG 12,650 - - 65,296 Population exposure, summarized at State level, has been calculated using 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. 1 https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/aktivitas-gunung-agung-masih-tinggi-semua-pihak-diminta-siap-siaga 2 https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/img/krb/ga/jpg/KRB_Agung.jpg UNITAR-UNOSAT | Mount Agung Volcanic Eruption Scenario, Bali, Indonesia 27 September 2017| Population Exposure Analysis Map of the Areas Exposed to Volcanic Hazard Hazard zone III - High potential of being affected by pyroclastic flows, lava flows, ejected rocks (glowing), heavy ash falls, mud-rain, hazardous gases, and/or water with high acidity. Hazard zone II - Moderate potential of being affected by pyroclastic flows, lava flows, ejected rocks (glowing), (heavy) ash falls, mudrain, hazardous gases, and/or water with high acidity. Hazard zone I - Potential of being affected by lahar; ash falls, and/or water with high acidity. When the eruption getting bigger; this area is potentially affected by the extending of pyroclastics flows. 115°25'0"E 115°30'0"E 115°35'0"E Java Sea Map Extent Jawa Timur ± INDONESIA Bali Nusa Tenggara Barat 8°15'0"S 8°15'0"S INDIAN OCEAN 8°20'0"S 8°20'0"S 8°25'0"S 8°25'0"S 8°30'0"S 8°30'0"S - Hazard zone III is an area that is highly potential affected by pyroclastic flows, lava flows, ejected rocks (glowing), heavy ash falls, mud-rain, hazardous gases, and/or water with high acidity. - Hazard zone II is an area that is moderately potential affected by pyroclastic flows, lava flows, ejected rocks (glowing), (heavy) Agung Volcano Hazard Model ash falls, mudrain, hazardous gases, and/or water with high acidity. Hazard Zone 1 - Hazard zone I is an area of potentially affected by lahar; ash falls, and/or water with high acidity. When the eruption getting Hazard Zone 2 bigger; this area is potentially affected by the extending of 0 0.75 1.5 3 4.5 6 pyroclastics flows. Kilometers Hazard Zone 3 © OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA 8°35'0"S 8°35'0"S 115°25'0"E 115°30'0"E 115°35'0"E .
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